CFP National Championship - Ohio State vs Notre Dame

     It always comes too fast, but my football friends, we have reached the final College Football game until August. Ohio State and Notre Dame are set to battle for the first ever, 12-Team Playoff National Championship. This post will cover everything you need to know about the big game tonight. Both teams have had incredible seasons with ups and downs to get to this finale, but here we go, it's time to crown a National Champion!

CFP National Championship

#8 Ohio State vs #7 Notre Dame

     Both the Buckeyes and Irish had their stumbles throughout the season, but once the playoffs started, these two teams proved the be the most resilient. The Buckeyes hosted Tennessee for a 42-17 drubbing followed by a trip to the Rose Bowl where they dismantled the #1 ranked Oregon Ducks 41-21, avenging a loss from the regular season. Finally, they earned their place in this game by outlasting Texas in a closer than expected fight with the Longhorns, winning with a sack, scoop and score to punch their ticket with a 28-14 score. Ohio State's defense has been sensational throughout the entirety of this season, but especially during the playoffs. They're giving up just over 17 points per game in the playoffs and are allowing just a 38% conversion rate on third down for their opponents. Ohio State has also racked up 16 sacks over their 3 playoff games, flexing their muscle on the line of scrimmage with one of the nation's best pass rushes. Notre Dame has done well to manage the line of scrimmage, but did lose the rushing battle to Penn State in the semifinal game. The Irish don't give up a tremendous amount of sacks, primarily due to Riley Leonard's rushing ability. Ohio State will have a tall task containing him in the pocket, as he averages nearly 60 yards per game on the ground. Complimented by Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price in the backfield, this could most difficult rushing attack Ohio State has faced all season. This will be the focal point of Notre Dame's attack as they aren't known for big plays downfield. They rank 58th in plays of 20+ yards, and with Ohio State's pass rush bearing down, I don't expect a ton of success in the passing game. They need to execute well on the early downs, especially running, so third and long situations are heavily focused on the downfield pass. This is one of my first keys of the game for both teams, Ohio State needs to force Notre Dame into passing situations so they can unleash the pass rush, and Notre Dame needs to run the ball with all three of their stars to keep the defense on their heels. My second key is one of the primary indicators of victory in almost every game of football, turnovers. Notre Dame leads the nation in takeaways with 32. Ohio State has done fairly well to take care of the rock, but Will Howard has 10 picks on the season including 2 in the playoffs. The Fightin' Irish defense is always in good position, so throws need to be extremely accurate and ball carriers will have to cover with two arms heading into traffic. Extra possessions in short fields will quickly tip the scales in this game. Last, but certainly not least, the final key to victory is star power. Both of these teams have very impressive rosters, but Ohio State has been dubbed all season long as the "best roster that money can buy". The NIL world has opened up so many new strategies to roster building, and both teams have taken advantage of the portal. If Ohio State can get the ball into the hands of their star players consistently, they should win this game. Notre Dame has playmakers, you don't get to a National Championship game without them, but there are few players in the nation that can compete with Jeremiah Smith. The true freshman has 1,227 yards with 14 TDs and was embarrassing secondaries in the first two playoff games. Texas had a game plan to take him out of the game and it worked, he had 1 catch for 3 yards. Notre Dame has a great secondary and they love to play man-to-man coverage. This is likely going to be challenged early by Ohio State as they want Smith to have shots downfield, especially one-on-one. Containing Smith for two straight games will be a challenge, we'll see if Notre Dame is up for it. All of these factors are my focal points of the game, and I'm sure they're front of mind for head coaches Ryan Day and Marcus Freeman. Day has been torn apart for falling in the big games, and most importantly against Michigan during his career. Marcus Freeman is in just year 3 as the head man, and even as a Buckeye alum, he's all in with Notre Dame. This team clearly loves him, and honestly, college football does too. I find myself rooting for Notre Dame more often than not (much to the delight of my Uncle Joe), and his decision making and coaching game plan truly inspire me as a young coach. The full team hockey switch from punt to the offense against Georgia was one of the smartest and well executed coaching moves I have seen in all my years covering college football, and for that reason I'm picking the Irish. Ohio State is uber talented, they have a majority of the stats in their favor, but again, they've been inconsistent. Separate of that loss to Northern Illinois, Notre Dame has not flinched and Marcus Freeman is my true X factor to tip the scale. Irish win the Natty 23-21.

Thank you for reading my National Championship predictions and enjoy the game!

#CFBKnowItAll

Alex Fernando

Back to where it all began. Four Team Playoff!

      Hello Football Fans and welcome to semi-final week! We've made it back to the beginning some would say as we have 4 teams remaining in the playoffs. Notre Dame vs Penn State and Ohio State vs Texas for the two semi-final games. This post will preview both of those games as we inch closer to the championship on January 20th. Thanks for reading and enjoy!

CFP Semifinal: Capital One Orange Bowl

#7 Notre Dame vs #6 Penn State

     The Irish and Nittany Lions meet in South Florida as both Marcus Freeman and James Franklin look to be the first black head coach to lead their team into a national championship appearance. A lot more than just history is on the line as both programs have been missing that top level win since the calendar year started with a 19. James Franklin and Penn State are 1-14 versus AP top 5 teams during his tenure, but the benefit of the extended field playoff has his team finally sitting in the semifinals. Drew Allar has been taking care of the ball well this season, just 7 picks on the year. He hasn't done anything spectacular in the first two playoff games, so Notre Dame's 8th ranked defense will be a major test of his decision making abilities. One key stat around him is that he's been sacked 5 times in the two playoff games against SMU and Boise State, so look for Notre Dame to apply extra pressure and razzle him. Both teams rely heavily on the rushing attack, and this is where I believe Penn State has an edge. Two 1,000+ backs, in Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton have been demolishing defenses all year long. Both backs have tremendous vision and almost always find a way to gash the defense for 8 yard runs at least once or twice a drive. Notre Dame has stuffed some of the more prolific rushing attacks in the nation, but stopping these two is another beast. Offensively for the Irish, their run game is led by RB Jeremiyah Love and QB Riley Leonard. Love is a bit questionable for this one after being banged up against Georgia, so expect to see a good dose of Jadarian Price mixed in. There's a good chance we won't see much of (if any) Abdul Carter, the star defensive end for Penn State, so expect Notre Dame to run toward his vacancy. Neither team has tremendous talent out on the edges, so I wouldn't expect a particularly high scoring affair. This should be old-school, hard-nosed, grind it out football. Penn State Tight End Tyler Warren could get some favorable matchups against Notre Dame's safeties, but with pressure on Drew Allar it could be difficult to throw downfield. I've picked against Penn State the entire playoffs, mostly because I just loved SMU and Boise State more, but the Nittany Lions always prove me wrong. Notre Dame has been steady as a rock since the lost to Northern Illinois (welcome to the Mountain West by the way), so both teams bring a lot of consistency to the table, beating the teams they should. I do want to see an all BIG 10 Championship to shut up all the narratives, so I'll pick Notre Dame and expect Penn State to prove me wrong yet again. Hoping my "good luck" from my predictions will rub off on the Irish in honor of my Uncle Joe who will be thrilled I picked his team to go to the Championship. Irish win with some key turnovers and pressure on Drew Allar 26-23.

CFP Semifinal: Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic

#8 Ohio State vs #5 Texas

     There are only a few matchups I'd root for the giant meteor more than this one, but nonetheless, Ohio State and Texas are set to meet in the College Football semifinal. Oddly enough, the hopes of the SEC rest on the shoulders of the Longhorns, one of their newest members who just finished their first season in the conference. Despite all the talk about how many extra spots should be reserved for the SEC, they are in danger of not having a team in the National Championship game for the second straight season. Texas escaped being pushed into the fires of Hell by the Sun Devils in a 39-31 double overtime win. The Longhorns star kicker missed two game winning field goals late in the 4th, and Arizona State was a 4th and 13 stop in the first overtime from being in this semifinal game. Credit to Texas and Quinn Ewers is due because they stepped up with the pitchfork at their throat to make some big time plays in overtime. However, this was a very typical style for Texas this season. Not necessarily the overtime comeback, but if you watched that game, you saw Texas hit some big plays early and then sit on their lead doing nothing for a majority of the game. Their defense held strong for a while, but I think if you have him enough attempts at it, Cam Skattebo would break down the Wall of China simply by running into it so many times. He wore down the Longhorn defense and led the comeback for Arizona State. I'm not sure Ohio State will be in too deep of a hole they will need to forge a comeback, but it is proven that it can be done. The Texas offense is extremely unimpressive once you shut down the run. Until proven otherwise, I will continue to be a Quinn Ewers critic because he has not been impressive their past few games. Versus Texas A&M he had two redzone turnovers and a pick 6. Against Georgia he completed less than 60% of his passes and threw two picks. Against Clemson and Arizona State he had a pick each and some very inaccurate throws. Ohio State's defense will come after him early and often, they are the #1 defense in the nation and rank 3rd with 47 sacks. Oregon QB Dillon Gabriel was sacked 21 times this season, 8 of them were from Ohio State in the Rose Bowl. The Buckeyes look like a completely different team since the Michigan lost, and this is the team we expected all year long. Jeremiah Smith is an 19 year old man amongst 22 year old boys out there, racking up an average of 17.5 yards per catch. The Texas secondary hasn't seen a wide receiver corps as talented as this one and if Will Howard can keep playing at the level of the past couple of games, he will certainly be the best QB on the field in this game. There will be a large Texas crowd on hand in Dallas as this game is hosted at Jerry World, but make no mistake, Ohio State is ready to steam roll the Longhorns. It may not come as easy as it did against Tennessee and Oregon, especially with Texas looking to slow down the run, but I have Ohio State by at least two scores in this game. I don't think Texas' offense will be able to keep up once the Buckeyes get going and unless Quinn Ewers can play absolutely mistake free football, the SEC National Champion hopes will die with Texas losing 34-21 in the semifinals. Horns down and I'll go with the BIG 10 Buckeyes.

Thanks for reading my CFP semifinal predictions! Enjoy the games and be sure to watch for my Championship Predictions post along with others.

#CFBKnowItAll

Alex Fernando