It always comes too fast, but my football friends, we have reached the final College Football game until August. Ohio State and Notre Dame are set to battle for the first ever, 12-Team Playoff National Championship. This post will cover everything you need to know about the big game tonight. Both teams have had incredible seasons with ups and downs to get to this finale, but here we go, it's time to crown a National Champion!
CFP National Championship
#8 Ohio State vs #7 Notre Dame
Both the Buckeyes and Irish had their stumbles throughout the season, but once the playoffs started, these two teams proved the be the most resilient. The Buckeyes hosted Tennessee for a 42-17 drubbing followed by a trip to the Rose Bowl where they dismantled the #1 ranked Oregon Ducks 41-21, avenging a loss from the regular season. Finally, they earned their place in this game by outlasting Texas in a closer than expected fight with the Longhorns, winning with a sack, scoop and score to punch their ticket with a 28-14 score. Ohio State's defense has been sensational throughout the entirety of this season, but especially during the playoffs. They're giving up just over 17 points per game in the playoffs and are allowing just a 38% conversion rate on third down for their opponents. Ohio State has also racked up 16 sacks over their 3 playoff games, flexing their muscle on the line of scrimmage with one of the nation's best pass rushes. Notre Dame has done well to manage the line of scrimmage, but did lose the rushing battle to Penn State in the semifinal game. The Irish don't give up a tremendous amount of sacks, primarily due to Riley Leonard's rushing ability. Ohio State will have a tall task containing him in the pocket, as he averages nearly 60 yards per game on the ground. Complimented by Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price in the backfield, this could most difficult rushing attack Ohio State has faced all season. This will be the focal point of Notre Dame's attack as they aren't known for big plays downfield. They rank 58th in plays of 20+ yards, and with Ohio State's pass rush bearing down, I don't expect a ton of success in the passing game. They need to execute well on the early downs, especially running, so third and long situations are heavily focused on the downfield pass. This is one of my first keys of the game for both teams, Ohio State needs to force Notre Dame into passing situations so they can unleash the pass rush, and Notre Dame needs to run the ball with all three of their stars to keep the defense on their heels. My second key is one of the primary indicators of victory in almost every game of football, turnovers. Notre Dame leads the nation in takeaways with 32. Ohio State has done fairly well to take care of the rock, but Will Howard has 10 picks on the season including 2 in the playoffs. The Fightin' Irish defense is always in good position, so throws need to be extremely accurate and ball carriers will have to cover with two arms heading into traffic. Extra possessions in short fields will quickly tip the scales in this game. Last, but certainly not least, the final key to victory is star power. Both of these teams have very impressive rosters, but Ohio State has been dubbed all season long as the "best roster that money can buy". The NIL world has opened up so many new strategies to roster building, and both teams have taken advantage of the portal. If Ohio State can get the ball into the hands of their star players consistently, they should win this game. Notre Dame has playmakers, you don't get to a National Championship game without them, but there are few players in the nation that can compete with Jeremiah Smith. The true freshman has 1,227 yards with 14 TDs and was embarrassing secondaries in the first two playoff games. Texas had a game plan to take him out of the game and it worked, he had 1 catch for 3 yards. Notre Dame has a great secondary and they love to play man-to-man coverage. This is likely going to be challenged early by Ohio State as they want Smith to have shots downfield, especially one-on-one. Containing Smith for two straight games will be a challenge, we'll see if Notre Dame is up for it. All of these factors are my focal points of the game, and I'm sure they're front of mind for head coaches Ryan Day and Marcus Freeman. Day has been torn apart for falling in the big games, and most importantly against Michigan during his career. Marcus Freeman is in just year 3 as the head man, and even as a Buckeye alum, he's all in with Notre Dame. This team clearly loves him, and honestly, college football does too. I find myself rooting for Notre Dame more often than not (much to the delight of my Uncle Joe), and his decision making and coaching game plan truly inspire me as a young coach. The full team hockey switch from punt to the offense against Georgia was one of the smartest and well executed coaching moves I have seen in all my years covering college football, and for that reason I'm picking the Irish. Ohio State is uber talented, they have a majority of the stats in their favor, but again, they've been inconsistent. Separate of that loss to Northern Illinois, Notre Dame has not flinched and Marcus Freeman is my true X factor to tip the scale. Irish win the Natty 23-21.
Thank you for reading my National Championship predictions and enjoy the game!
#CFBKnowItAll
Alex Fernando
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