Hello Football Fans and welcome to semi-final week! We've made it back to the beginning some would say as we have 4 teams remaining in the playoffs. Notre Dame vs Penn State and Ohio State vs Texas for the two semi-final games. This post will preview both of those games as we inch closer to the championship on January 20th. Thanks for reading and enjoy!
CFP Semifinal: Capital One Orange Bowl
#7 Notre Dame vs #6 Penn State
The Irish and Nittany Lions meet in South Florida as both Marcus Freeman and James Franklin look to be the first black head coach to lead their team into a national championship appearance. A lot more than just history is on the line as both programs have been missing that top level win since the calendar year started with a 19. James Franklin and Penn State are 1-14 versus AP top 5 teams during his tenure, but the benefit of the extended field playoff has his team finally sitting in the semifinals. Drew Allar has been taking care of the ball well this season, just 7 picks on the year. He hasn't done anything spectacular in the first two playoff games, so Notre Dame's 8th ranked defense will be a major test of his decision making abilities. One key stat around him is that he's been sacked 5 times in the two playoff games against SMU and Boise State, so look for Notre Dame to apply extra pressure and razzle him. Both teams rely heavily on the rushing attack, and this is where I believe Penn State has an edge. Two 1,000+ backs, in Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton have been demolishing defenses all year long. Both backs have tremendous vision and almost always find a way to gash the defense for 8 yard runs at least once or twice a drive. Notre Dame has stuffed some of the more prolific rushing attacks in the nation, but stopping these two is another beast. Offensively for the Irish, their run game is led by RB Jeremiyah Love and QB Riley Leonard. Love is a bit questionable for this one after being banged up against Georgia, so expect to see a good dose of Jadarian Price mixed in. There's a good chance we won't see much of (if any) Abdul Carter, the star defensive end for Penn State, so expect Notre Dame to run toward his vacancy. Neither team has tremendous talent out on the edges, so I wouldn't expect a particularly high scoring affair. This should be old-school, hard-nosed, grind it out football. Penn State Tight End Tyler Warren could get some favorable matchups against Notre Dame's safeties, but with pressure on Drew Allar it could be difficult to throw downfield. I've picked against Penn State the entire playoffs, mostly because I just loved SMU and Boise State more, but the Nittany Lions always prove me wrong. Notre Dame has been steady as a rock since the lost to Northern Illinois (welcome to the Mountain West by the way), so both teams bring a lot of consistency to the table, beating the teams they should. I do want to see an all BIG 10 Championship to shut up all the narratives, so I'll pick Notre Dame and expect Penn State to prove me wrong yet again. Hoping my "good luck" from my predictions will rub off on the Irish in honor of my Uncle Joe who will be thrilled I picked his team to go to the Championship. Irish win with some key turnovers and pressure on Drew Allar 26-23.
CFP Semifinal: Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
#8 Ohio State vs #5 Texas
There are only a few matchups I'd root for the giant meteor more than this one, but nonetheless, Ohio State and Texas are set to meet in the College Football semifinal. Oddly enough, the hopes of the SEC rest on the shoulders of the Longhorns, one of their newest members who just finished their first season in the conference. Despite all the talk about how many extra spots should be reserved for the SEC, they are in danger of not having a team in the National Championship game for the second straight season. Texas escaped being pushed into the fires of Hell by the Sun Devils in a 39-31 double overtime win. The Longhorns star kicker missed two game winning field goals late in the 4th, and Arizona State was a 4th and 13 stop in the first overtime from being in this semifinal game. Credit to Texas and Quinn Ewers is due because they stepped up with the pitchfork at their throat to make some big time plays in overtime. However, this was a very typical style for Texas this season. Not necessarily the overtime comeback, but if you watched that game, you saw Texas hit some big plays early and then sit on their lead doing nothing for a majority of the game. Their defense held strong for a while, but I think if you have him enough attempts at it, Cam Skattebo would break down the Wall of China simply by running into it so many times. He wore down the Longhorn defense and led the comeback for Arizona State. I'm not sure Ohio State will be in too deep of a hole they will need to forge a comeback, but it is proven that it can be done. The Texas offense is extremely unimpressive once you shut down the run. Until proven otherwise, I will continue to be a Quinn Ewers critic because he has not been impressive their past few games. Versus Texas A&M he had two redzone turnovers and a pick 6. Against Georgia he completed less than 60% of his passes and threw two picks. Against Clemson and Arizona State he had a pick each and some very inaccurate throws. Ohio State's defense will come after him early and often, they are the #1 defense in the nation and rank 3rd with 47 sacks. Oregon QB Dillon Gabriel was sacked 21 times this season, 8 of them were from Ohio State in the Rose Bowl. The Buckeyes look like a completely different team since the Michigan lost, and this is the team we expected all year long. Jeremiah Smith is an 19 year old man amongst 22 year old boys out there, racking up an average of 17.5 yards per catch. The Texas secondary hasn't seen a wide receiver corps as talented as this one and if Will Howard can keep playing at the level of the past couple of games, he will certainly be the best QB on the field in this game. There will be a large Texas crowd on hand in Dallas as this game is hosted at Jerry World, but make no mistake, Ohio State is ready to steam roll the Longhorns. It may not come as easy as it did against Tennessee and Oregon, especially with Texas looking to slow down the run, but I have Ohio State by at least two scores in this game. I don't think Texas' offense will be able to keep up once the Buckeyes get going and unless Quinn Ewers can play absolutely mistake free football, the SEC National Champion hopes will die with Texas losing 34-21 in the semifinals. Horns down and I'll go with the BIG 10 Buckeyes.
Thanks for reading my CFP semifinal predictions! Enjoy the games and be sure to watch for my Championship Predictions post along with others.
#CFBKnowItAll
Alex Fernando
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