Playoff Rankings, Army/Navy & Bucked Up LA Bowl

     Welcome to the College Football Postseason! We've got the Playoff Bracket set, bowl games ready to roll and most importantly, we've got Army vs Navy today! This post will have my reflections on the CFP Committee decisions and a few thoughts on the playoffs along with picks for Army/Navy and Boise State/Washington. Much to get to, so let's dive in!

Conference Championship Results: 4 - 5

     The College Football Playoff Committee announced their rankings last week following conference championship weekend, and sparking some controversy by keeping Alabama in and bumping out Notre Dame. Unfortunately, this is what I expected to happen. More unfortunately, it's not unreasonable to think that money is a factor here. ESPN owns the broadcast rights to the ACC and SEC. With each conference receiving $5 million per team in the playoffs, it's hard to say that wasn't part of the calculation. Most notably because of how Bama moved above Notre Dame during rivalry week because they beat Auburn by 7 and the Irish beat Stanford by 29. The Committee Chair spent time after each ranking show in the previous weeks talking about how Alabama's first half against Auburn was a key factor in why they moved ahead. Then, after amassing an impressive -3 rushing yards in the SEC Championship and getting stomped by Georgia and a largely uncompetitive game, the Tide did not move one spot in the rankings. They were not punished for losing (badly) in a conference title game, which is fine if that's the case for other teams too. However, BYU, Virginia and Ohio State all dropped in rankings spots after losing their conference championship game, so why does Alabama get special treatment. In all honesty, I think the Committee botched this one. Notre Dame has two close losses to other teams in the Playoff field and have crushed everyone else in their way. Alabama has 3 losses, one of them to a 5-7 team and did not finish the season looking particularly well. The opportunity was set up perfectly for the committee to show they value the eye test and playing competitive games. Remember that Alabama was in the SEC Championship game because of a tie breaker and both A&M and Ole Miss who are rated higher were left out. Conference realignment has screwed up most of this, resulting in Duke taking the ACC crown after a 7-5 regular season but winning the conference title bid via tiebreaker. Their overtime win against Virginia knocked out the Cavs and nearly knocked out the ACC from the bracket. But again, money moves drops Big XII BYU (despite their only losses being to a top 4 team) and moves up Miami who did not play. Personally, I don't mind that both Tulane and James Madison got into the field, I think it's good for the sport if you have access to more teams and honor the work they put into the season. It's ridiculous to have a sport where have the teams are out of contention just for existing. We love the upsets and chaos of March Madness with lower-level teams in the bracket, but for football teams they don't get the same respect. The argument between best and most deserving is always a heated one with respect to the rankings, but why play the games then? If you win a majority of your games and look good doing it, why shouldn't you have a shot at the title? I think there needs to be an adjustment from full committee selection, or at least the process of how certain teams are impacted by performances that others of the same or similar status are not. It's not a perfect system, it likely won't be for a long time, but I do think this one is better than the last.

     As for the Irish declining a bowl game, this is a unique stance with a big statement. Notre Dame feels their body of work was not well respected among the committee, and the same group that kept them out of the playoffs still want them to participate in a bowl game to make more money with their performance on TV for the broadcast. On one hand, this sucks for the players (although it was a team decision), the fans and the program. They are forfeiting extra practice which are crucial reps for younger players. They are forfeiting an opportunity for their fans to travel and participate in bowl game activities. Most importantly, they're forfeiting another football game. As a former player of this great sport, there's not a day that goes by where I don't want to throw on pads and a helmet for one more shot on the field. It's a game that truly ends abruptly, even without injury. Giving up one of those finite moments is not any easy choice. However, I do understand and somewhat agree with the statement Notre Dame is trying to make. The Committee didn't see them as one of the best teams and they don't feel that is a fair assessment on them. Why would they want to go play and make more money for the organizations who shut them out? If you want things to change, take some money away from folks and you'll get their attention very quickly. Now Notre Dame may not have the full brand power they believe, but that is yet to be determined in how they choose to structure their alignment within the sport moving forward. The last piece to watch for this is the battle with the ACC. Notre Dame is claiming the conference essentially threw them under the bus in order to promote Miami into the playoffs. While I don't fully agree with this, the lobbying for certain teams to be in and others to be out went well beyond the social media posts. The Irish may look into other conference partnership options as an independent, and that could be fun to watch shake out.

     Shifting over to the games, Army and Navy play while we also haven an early bowl game, so College Football marches on. I've got my predictions below and will have more picks through the bowl slate soon. Enjoy!

Army vs Navy

     The Midshipmen very nearly found themselves playing for an American Conference title, but the tiebreaker fell to North Texas due to their head-to-head win. Army won the Conference a year ago but has struggled to finish out games this year, losing 4 of their 5 losses by one score. Navy has been nearly impossible to stop all year, led by star QB Blake Horvath. He's the difference-maker in this game, averaging 6 yards per carry while also throwing for nearly 1,400 on the season. He's accounted for 23 touchdowns and will be looking to continue his dominance against the Black Knights. In last season's 31-13 victory for Navy, Horvath accounted for 107 pass yards with 2 TDs and 204 rushing yards (8.2 ypc average) with 2 TDs. Army has a +5 turnover margin on the season, so look for them to be aggressing when ripping at that ball. This is always a great battle between some of the nation's most overlooked athletes, who are also serving our country. Winners all around no matter what, but give me Blake Horvath and the Midshipmen with another big win. Go Navy, Beat Army 30-17.

Boise State vs Washington - Bucked Up LA Bowl

     Played at Sofi Stadium just a day before my Rams do, the Broncos and the Huskies meet for the first bowl game of the season. This one could be nicknamed the Chris Petersen Bowl since he famously coached both programs, but I am intrigued by the QB matchup we've got. Demond Williams Jr. for Washington and Maddux Madsen for the Broncos have both been fantastic this season. Madsen missed a few weeks for injuries, but returned last week to help Boise State claim their third straight (and likely final) Mountain West Conference title. He threw for 289 yards with 3 TDs and added another one on the ground. When he's playing, the Broncos' offense is nearly impossible to stop. The Huskies' defense will have their hands full, and I'm anxious to see if they can apply pressure, because that's where they've struggled this season. On the offensive side of the ball for UW, a heavy ground attack is going to set up play-action. Washington is hoping RB Jonah Coleman will be healthy after a couple of weeks resting, providing QB Demond Williams Jr. with some relief. Regardless, Williams Jr. does very well with his own legs, rushing for nearly 600 yards this season with 6 TDs on the ground and 4.5 yards per carry. He rumbles through contact and is extremely accurate in the passing game. He's thrown for 2,850 yards, completing 70% of his passes and racking up 21 TDs with just 8 picks. If he can keep ahold of the rock, then I think Washington's power on the line of scrimmage will be too much to handle. Give me Washington to represent the BIG 10 well in the opening of Bowl Season with a 34-24 win.

Thank you for reading this week's post and enjoy a couple of great college football games!

#CFBKnowItAll🏈🧠 

Alex Fernando

Conference Championship Predictions

     We've reached Conference Championship Week! There are still some playoff spots that need to be decided following these games, and there could even be two Group of 5 Teams that break into the field with a little help from the Duke Blue Devils. I'll be getting a full season recap out next week ahead of the bowl games, but first, let's pick some conference champions!

Rivalry Week Results: 32 - 16 (66.7%)

Overall Season Results: 247 - 106 (70.0%)

Conference Championship Predictions:

Troy at #25 James Madison - Sun Belt Championship

     The Dukes have a chance at the Playoffs being ranked #25 in the most recent CFP rankings, but first they need to win the Sun Belt. They've been dominating teams for most of the season, led by Junior QB Alonza Barnett III, James Madison has the 10th best scoring offense in the nation at 37.8 points per game. Barnett is flanked by a cast of talent, starting with Wayne Knight at Running Back. He's averaging 6.2 yards per carry and has over 1,000 yards on the season. The Trojans of Troy were a bit up and down to end the season, losing their first two games of November by a combined score of 56-10, but winning the last two weeks to put them into the Sun Belt Championship. Troy will hope the penalty problems pile up on JMU, with the Dukes averaging more than 7 penalties per game. Outside of that, this game tips heavily in favor of the Dukes, and I have them winning in style 45-17. After that JMU will be the biggest group of Duke Blue Devil fans in the nation.

Kennesaw State at Jacksonville State - C-USA Championship

     An exciting rematch between the Owls and the Gamecocks is set for the CUSA Championship. Kennesaw State is having a historic season after going 2-10 last year. They're led by Sophomore QB Amari Odom who's accounted for 24 total TDs this season. He leads an offense that averages over 400 yards per game, and put up nearly 500 on the Gamecocks a few weeks ago. Jacksonville State forced 4 picks that game, ultimately leading to their 35-26 win. The Gamecocks are +9 on the season for turnover margin, and have 21 total takeaways this season. Junior RB Cam Cook helps turn those takeaways to scores, rushing for 15 TDs this season. I always say that you never want to play a team twice in College Football, so I'm invoking that rule and saying the Owls complete a fantastic season and win the Conference USA Championship! Kennesaw State gets revenge 31-27.

UNLV at Boise State - Mountain West Championship

     For the third year in a row we have the Rebels and the Broncos battling for the Mountain West Championship. UNLV and Boise were put in after computer rankings decision following a 4-way tie atop the conference. I think New Mexico had a strong case, especially after beating SDSU and having a win over UNLV, but ultimately the tiebreaker did not go in their favor. For this game, we saw these team meet on the Blue Turf earlier this season, resulting in a Broncos victory 56-31. An impressive first season for the Rebels under Dan Mullen, going 10-2. Their defense has struggled a lot throughout the season, ranking 118th in total defense while also giving up more than 28 points per game. Offensively, Anthony Colandrea has been sensational, passing for more than 3,000 yards with 22 TDs and 8 picks. The former Virginia QB also added 556 yards and 8 TDs on the ground, earning him the Mountain West Offensive Player of the Year award. For Boise State, they get QB Maddux Madsen who they've been without since getting injured early in the Fresno game. He threw for 253 yards with 4 TDs and 1 pick against the Rebels earlier in the season, but being banged up may hinder his abilities in this game. UNLV was shut down in the second half by the Broncos in the first meeting, and they have not defeated Boise State since 1976. I'll stick to my rule of not wanting to play a team twice and I think Dan Mullen has some tricks up his sleeve for this game. Anthony Colandrea showcases that Mountain West Offensive MVP skill and UNL upsets Boise on the home turf 38-31 for a Mountain West Title.

#24 North Texas at #20 Tulane - American Championship

     The Mean Green and the Green Wave clash in the Big Easy as they not only look to add a Conference Title to their season successes, but a spot in the College Football Playoff as well. Both head coaches, John Sumrall (Tulane) and Eric Morris (North Texas) have accepted new jobs at Florida and Oklahoma State respectively for next season. They've both agreed to coach their teams through the conference championship and playoffs pending the outcome of this game. Both could also be looking to bring some of their players with them after the season, but there's a lot at state in this game first. Both teams come in with dynamic offenses, led by sensational QBs. Starting with the Mean Green, Freshman Drew Mastemaker has taken the American by storm, throwing for 3,835 yards with 29 TDs and just 4 picks. North Texas has the nation's 2nd best passing attack while Tulane comes in with the 119th ranked pass defense. The Green Wave have a top notch offense of their own though, led by former BYU QB Jake Retzlaf. He's quickly become one of the American's best playmakers, accounting for more than 3,200 total yards and 28 TDs (14 pass and 14 rush). Both of these teams score at an extremely high rate, so this could be a high-scoring shootout. I really like what John Sumrall has done at Tulane and think he'll elevate the play at Florida quite quickly, but I've kept my eye on North Texas for a while. Eric Morris has developed a number of good QBs from that program including Chandler Morris who is playing for Virginia in the ACC Championship. North Texas's offense is one of the most exciting in the country, and I think they put up a few more points in this shoot out. They've won every road game on their schedule this season and will win one more to go to the playoffs 52-45. Mean Green beat the Green Wave for the American Championship.

Miami (OH) vs Western Michigan - MAC Championship

     The Redhawks and Broncos meet at Ford Field in Detroit to battle out the MAC Championship. Miami (OH) somehow gets the tiebreaker despite losing to both Ohio and Toledo in the last month, both teams they were tied with. Regardless, they're playing in their third straight MAC Championship game while Western Michigan makes their first appearance since their historic 2016 season. The Broncos come in as the top team in the conference, ranking 2nd in points allowed with 18.7 allowed per game. They're led by Sophomore QB Broc Lowry, who's accounted for nearly 2,500 total yards and 21 touchdowns. Western Michigan did lose this matchup back on October 25th, but as we've highlighted with other matchups, you never want to play a team twice. Both teams force a lot of turnovers, so I'm looking at 3rd down conversions. Miami (OH) ranks 116th in conversion rate while Western Michigan ranks 49th. Give me the Broncos to win 27-21.

#11 BYU vs #4 Texas Tech - Big XII Championship

     The Cougars need to win the rematch with Texas Tech if they want to be in the Playoffs. The Red Raiders demolished BYU in the first meeting, winning 29-7 in Lubbock. The Cougars turned the ball over 3 times in that game, but struggled to move against the Red Raider defense regardless. Texas Tech has been dominant all season and are looking for a 1st round BYE and their first ever Big XII title. Their defense is led by Heisman hopeful, Linebacker Jacob Rodriguez, who's racked up 101 total tackles on the season with 1 sack, 7 forced fumbles and 4 picks. He'll be attempting to slow down a BYU rushing attack that ranks 23rd in the nation with nearly 200 yards on the ground per game. Bear Bachmeier and LJ Martin are a load to bring down in the backfield, and both have 11 TDs each on the ground. Texas Tech's offense has been dynamic at times this season, but the Cougars forced them into 5 field goals last time out. If they can do that again and flip the turnover margin into their favor, this game could get interesting. Don't let the Cougars hang around late, because that would certainly give them an opportunity. I believe Texas Tech is one of the best teams in the nation, especially on defense. They've suffocated nearly every opponent this season. However, the Cougars aren't getting much credit from the CFP, they play very fast on defense and love to force teams off the field on 3rd down, ranking as the 16th best 3rd down defense in the nation. I'm picking this one purely for chaos and fun, but I'll say the Cougars play extra motivated after keeping Kalani Sitake. Cougars earn their spot in the College Football Playoffs 26-23 over Texas Tech.

#9 Alabama vs #3 Georgia - SEC Championship

     The Bulldogs and Tide meet yet again in Atlanta after tiebreakers kept Ole Miss and Texas A&M out of the SEC Championship. Alabama won the regular season meeting, controlling the game all the way through for a 24-21 victory between the hedges. Georgia's offense has kicked into gear since then, scoring 35 points or more in 5 of their last 8. Neither team runs the ball well, but Georgia does have a mobile QB in Gunnar Stockton. RB Nate Frazier does have 809 yards to his name on the ground, but he could have some tough sledding against Bama's 36th ranked rush defense. Georgia ranks 6th in rush defense this season, so the Tide's rushing game could potentially be non-existent. This puts a lot of the game plan on Ty Simpson and the passing attack. I anticipate Alabama to be in third and medium to long all evening. This could give Georgia an opportunity to design some creative blitzes, but their pass rush has only netted 17 sacks on the season, ranking 117th in the nation. The big issue is that Kirby Smart always struggles against Alabama. As you can see, there are conflicting stats for either team, but the winner solidifies their spot in the Playoff while the loser may have another team jump them depending on the chaos that could occur on Championship Saturday. I'll go with my rule saying you don't want to play a team twice, mostly because Bama losing causes the CFP Committee more headaches. Bulldogs get revenge in the SEC Championship Game 33-30.

Duke vs #17 Virginia - ACC Championship

     All eyes are on the ACC Championship in Charlotte as the 7-5 Duke Blue Devils find themselves playing for a conference title despite going 0-2 against the top 5 teams in the conference. The 10-2 Miami Hurricanes find themselves sitting at home, waiting for chaos because of the tiebreakers. Virginia has been one of the few consistencies of the ACC this season, but they've had stumbles of their own. Wake Forrest pulled the upset when QB Chandler Morris got hurt, but the Cavs offense is one of the best when Morris is healthy. He's thrown for nearly 2,600 yards with 14 TDs and 7 picks on the season. His secret weapon is Senior RB J'Mari Taylor, and if you haven't watched him play yet, you're in for a treat tonight. I think Taylor is one of the most underrated backs in the nation, contributing in both the ground attack and air raid. He's racked up 997 yards with 14 TDs on the ground, while adding another 219 yards through the air. The transfer from North Carolina Central has never fumbled in his career and loves to run through contact. If Duke wants to pull the upset, they need to force turnovers early and get Darian Mensah extra opportunities to score. Mensah's stats are fantastic in his first season with Duke, throwing for 3,450 yards with 28 TDs and just 4 picks. He's been sacked 24 times this season, so look for Virginia to come after him. They held the Blue Devils to 255 total yards and racked up 4 sacks with 8 tackles for loss just a couple of weeks ago, have things changed since then? Following my rule would cause chaos and potentially send JMU to the College Football Playoff. I would love that, but I think Virginia is a fun team to have in the field, and they've played the most consistent ball in the ACC this season. They love winning close games, and this one should be closer than last time, but give me the Cavs to win the ACC 37-28.

#1 Ohio State vs #2 Indiana - BIG 10 Championship

     Other than a top seed and conference bragging rights, there isn't too much on the line here when you look at the big picture. However, Indiana is seeking their first ever conference title and looking to avenge one of the two losses Curt Cignetti has suffered at Indiana. They Buckeyes are looking to repeat their National Championship run of last year, but have the opportunity to win the BIG 10 this year after sitting out last season due to the Michigan loss. The Buckeyes are lead by stars all over the field, and QB Julian Sayin has played very well in his first year as a starter. He's thrown for over 3,000 yards with 30 TDs and just 5 picks. With weapons like Carnell Tate and Jeremiah Smith, it's not hard to rack up those yards, but he makes great decisions with his reads and rarely puts the ball in danger. His top Heisman competition is across the field as Fernando Mendoza has really leveled up this Hoosier offense. Mendoza transferred from Cal and has dominated the BIG 10 this season, accounting for over 3,000 total yards of offense with 38 touchdowns and 5 picks on his own. Defense is the big story in this game and how they will handle these QBs. Ohio State has suffocated every single opponent this year, not allowing a single opponent to score more than 16 on the year. Indiana's defense has been leaky at times, but no matter what happens, they get off the field on third down. They rank 4th in opponent third down conversion just behind the Buckeyes, and I anticipate they'll try to make Julian Sayin uncomfortable early and often. He's not been under pressure much this season because of how dominant the Ohio State Oline is, but Indiana's focus from last year was to boost their aggressive play on the line of scrimmage. We saw it when they beat Oregon in Autzen and fought back to defeat Penn State, can they level it up another notch or two to beat the Buckeyes? Both teams are in no matter what, likely with a first round BYE. I would love to see Indiana pull the upset, but Ohio State has been too dominant this season. Until a team hangs around with them for 4 quarters, I'll take the Buckeyes to win the BIG 10 Championship. Ohio State defeats Indiana in Indianapolis 27-14. Don't sleep on this Hoosier team in the playoffs though!

Thank you for reading my Conference Championship Predictions and I hope you all enjoy a fantastic day of College Football!

#CFBKnowItAll

Alex Fernando