December 29 - January 2nd Bowl Games & CFP 2nd Round

      Hello football fans, we've got one more week full of Bowl Games as the post season marches on. This post will cover the all the games this week including the quarter-final matchups of the College Football Playoffs. Enjoy!

Bowl Record: 16 - 7

Bowl Game Predictions:

Georgia Southern vs Appalachian State - JLab Birmingham Bowl

     We've got a Sun Belt East Division Conference rematch for the Birmingham Bowl as App state opted in at 5-7 to take the place of various opt out teams. The first rendition of this game took place in Boone, NC as the Eagles defeated the Mountaineers 25-23. Both teams were hot on offense, racking up over 400 yards a piece and more than 20 first downs. The Mountaineers had a strong second half comeback, but it wasn't quite enough. I expect both QBs to be firing once again, as the pass defense in this game is abysmal with GSU ranking 112th in the nation and App State ranking 134th. the Eagles have a bit more momentum, winning 3 of their last 5 games, while App State only won 1. It's not often I pick the same team to win, but I'll go with Georgia Southern to take round two of the season as well. Eagles beat the Mountaineers 37-28.

Coastal Carolina vs Louisiana Tech - Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl

     The Chanticleers will have a new head man next season with former Missouri State Head Coach, Ryan Beard, coming over. However, they'll be under the direction of Interim HC Jeremiah Johnson for this bowl game. The Chants struggled on both sides of the ball this season, but after 3 straight losses giving up 45 points or more, the defense is a primary concern in this game. Louisiana Tech is averaging 27.7 points per game, but the last two weeks of the season they scored 34 & 42. The Bulldogs have rotated in a few QBs throughout the season, but it looks like Junior Trey Kukuk has taken over as of late, rushing for 172 yards and 3 TDs against Missouri State, showing off his dual-threat abilities. Their ground game has been strong all season, and if they can pick up good gains early in this one, Coastal could have a tough time slowing them down as the Chants rank 131st in rush defense. I always enjoy rooting for Coastal Carolina, but I'm going with the Bulldogs to run away with this one 30-17.

Tennessee vs Illinois - Liberty Mutual Music City Bowl

     Despite not beating a single opponent with a record above .500 this season, Tennessee was ranked for a majority of the year. They'll be squared up against the only Orange team in the BIG 10, Illinois. I had the Illini as my dark horse team to reach the College Football Playoffs, and sneak in as the 4th BIG 10 team in the field. Road games proved to be the achilles heel for this team, losing 3 key conference games on the road and failing to get much offense going, averaging just 15 points in those 3 road losses. Both squads will be without a few key players who are headed to the NFL Draft, but we do have a great QB matchup for this game. Joey Augilar of Tennessee and Luke Altmyer of Illinois can light up opposing defenses, and both rank in the top 30 for completion percentage in the nation. Augilar will be without his top target, Junior Wideout Chris Brazzle III, who's accounted for nearly 1/3 of the passing yards on Joey's stat sheet, but he does have a very dynamic RB in DeSean Bishop to take some of the pressure off with 6.0 yards per carry. Illinois run defense ranked in the middle of the BIG 10 conference, so if they can't stop Bishop early then more passing lanes will open up as they have to load the box. Offensively for the Illini, let Luke Altmyer lead the show. He makes great decisions with his throws and has multiple wideouts to throw to. I expect Illinois to grind this game to a slower pace, and Brent Belima always seems to have a trick up his sleeve in the Bowl Games. Give me Illinois 23-20 over Tennessee.

#16 USC vs TCU - Valero Alamo Bowl

     Our night cap of bowl action should give us quite a bit of fireworks with two offenses averaging over 30 points per game. Unfortunately, the Coaching Carousel, NFL Draft and Transfer Portal have hit both these teams fairly hard, so we'll see a lot of new names and faces out on the field. Starting with the Horned Frogs, OC Kendal Briles is headed to South Carolina, and star QB Josh Hoover has entered the Transfer Portal. They do have two dynamic backs with Jeremy Payne (5.7 yard per carry average) and Kevorian Barnes (4.6 yard per carry average) to provide some rushing attack, but breaking in a new QB won't be easy for Sonny Dykes. For the Trojans, Defensive Coordinator D'Anton Lynn has been poached by conference foe Penn State, and star Safety Kamari Ramsey has entered the NFL Draft along with their leading wideout, Makai Lemon. The Trojans run game has been effective at times this season, but injuries have dampened the impact of that unit. Lucky for them, QB Jayden Miava is still around, and if his Junior campaign is any indication of his talents, I would look at him as a dark horse Heisman for next year. Miava has nearly 3,500 pass yards to his name this season to go along with 23 TDs and 8 picks. He's added another 6 TDs on the ground and had USC on the edge of College Football Playoff Consideration. I think he'll have a big night and TCU has too many offensive pieces to replace for this game. Fight On as the Trojans win 38-24.

#23 Iowa vs #14 Vanderbilt - ReliaQuest Bowl

     The Hawkeyes and Commodores meet in Tampa for a hard-nosed battle between the BIG 10 and SEC. So far in bowl season the BIG 10 has done very well, currently holding a 6-1 record. The SEC has been lacking in bowl success thus far, sitting at 2-6 with one of those wins coming against their own. Regardless, this game puts one of the BIG 10's best defenses against the Heisman runner-up in Diego Pavia. He's been sensational in his two years at Vandy, racking up more than 4,000 total yards and 36 TDs this season. Iowa doesn't allow much offense to occur, ranking 6th in both Total and Scoring defense. However, the true threat the Hawkeyes bring in this game is on special teams. They rank 1st in the nation averaging nearly 30 yards per punt return and have 3 TDs brought back on punts this season. Iowa does a fabulous job of forcing teams into 3rd down and then getting off the field. Pavia and the Commodores have been one of my favorite teams to watch this season, falling short in two tough road games with Alabama and Texas. Those two losses kept them out of the Playoffs, and I don't think Pavia is one to leave something unsaid on his way out the door with his last college game. I think Iowa can put up a better fight than most against Vandy, but this is one where I'll side with the SEC. Anchor Down and Pavia puts on one last show for College Football. Vanderbilt 26, Iowa 21.

Arizona State vs Duke - Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl

     Two different Devils are set to dance in El Paso, both with their own unique styles. Starting with Arizona State, I think HC Kenny Dillingham and the players are going to be relieved to get back on the field following a lot of drama over the past month. The Sun Devils have been battered by injuries this year, but still found themselves in a fight amongst the best of the Big XII. They'll be a bit short-handed as a number of players are headed for the transfer portal, but ex-Husker Jeff Sims has done well in place of Sam Leavitt, and I'll give him his flowers, he's a big part of them winning 3 of their last 4 games. On the Blue Devils sideline, HC Manny Diaz and company walk into this game with an 8-5 record, a 3-game win streak and an ACC Championship Trophy. Tiebreakers gave them the shot, and they took it. QB Darian Mensah was fantastic this year, throwing for more than 3,600 yards with 30 TDs and just 5 picks. I don't trust this Duke team much, but there was a lot of drama with ASU over the break. I like Kenny Dillingham a lot and am glad he's staying in Tempe, but this season needs to wrap up so he can help move the program forward. Give me the Blue Devils to beat the Sun Devils 30-23.

#18 Michigan vs #13 Texas - Cheez-It Citrus Bowl

     Speaking of off-field drama, Michigan one-upped everyone over the past month, firing HC Sherrone Moore for cause after word of an inappropriate relationship with a staff member had been leaked. The Wolverines now have Kyle Whittingham in charge after he stepped down from Utah, but this team is likely in some shambles after that mess. Texas comes in on a high after winning 4 of their last 5, including knocking A&M out of the SEC Championship game. I'll be the first to say they proved me wrong because I thought this season was going off the rails back in October, but they did not quit. Arch Manning is improving well at QB, which is expected now that he's had time to actually play instead of just be propped up by media hype. He's got the offense in much better rhythm, but he'll be without run support as both CJ Baxter and Quintrevion Wisner are not playing in this game. This allows Michigan to make the Horns very one dimensional, something Texas should be looking to do the other way. Freshman QB Bryce Underwood has been good this season, but if a team sells out to stop the run, he's not quite ready to win it all with his arm. Expect a heavy dose of pressure from Texas' front 7, despite a few folks opting out of this game. The Longhorns rank 11th in sacks with 38 on the year, but Bryce is slippery in the pocket. Texas seems better prepared for success in this game with Steve Sarkisian not having a scandal, so I'll give another nod to the SEC with Texas defeating Michigan 31-21.

Rice vs Texas State - Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl

     The Rice Owls find themselves as one of the Bowl alternatives at 5-7. They take on in-state foe with the Bobcats of Texas State, soon headed to the new PAC-12. Texas State had a 5-game losing streak in the middle of their season, but 4 of those loses were by just one score. This team has a very high-powered offense, ranking 12th in points per game with 36.1, 6th in total offense, averaging more than 475 per game. The Owls pulled off a few unexpected wins over the season, but after being out-scored 108 to 27 in their final two games, I'm not sure they'll be able to keep pace with Texas State. Looking for a big game from the Bobcats as they run away with it 45-21.

Navy vs Cincinnati - Autozone Liberty Bowl

     The Midshipmen were left out of the American Championship due to tiebreakers, but don't for a minute think this team didn't deserve their marks this season. Navy won its final three games of the season while Cincy found themselves on a 4-game skid. The Bearcats have many players in the Transfer Portal, including QB Brenden Sorsby. A number of their defensive players are also in the portal, so look for a lot of new faces to be playing for Cincy. Similar to the UConn/Army game, this doesn't set up well for the Bearcats. Navy will look to run all over them, led by Senior QB Blake Horvath, who's got 25 total TDs this season. He'll end his college career with an impressive outing and lead the Midshipmen to their 11th win of the season. Navy beats Cincy 31-21.

#17 Arizona vs SMU - Trust & Will Holiday Bowl

     One of my most anticipated matchups of Bowl Season comes in the Holiday Bowl with the Wildcats and the Mustangs. I've loved watching both of these teams throughout the season and am excited as both programs continue to grow under their respective head coaches. Starting with SMU, Rhett Lashlee had the Ponies on the brink of another ACC Championship in just their 2nd season with the conferences. Each one of their losses are late-game, one-score heartbreakers, so this team is not far out from another Playoff bid. Star QB Kevin Jennings needs a few weapons from the portal for next year, as he's accounted for 2/3 of SMU's total offensive yards this season. He's been a one-man Show Pony this year, accounting for 30 TDs. His QB counter-part on the Arizona sideline, Noah Fafita, plays a similar role for the Wildcats. He's accounted for 64% of Arizona's total offensive yards this season and has 29 total TDs to his name. Brent Brennan has done a fantastic job with this team, ending year 2 on a 5-game win streak. I'm excited for the offensive show in this game with two fabulous QBs. Look for these two on Heisman ballots next year, and in this one just enjoy the show. I really do like both of these teams, but Arizona has been hot to end the season, so I'll take the Wildcats to beat the Mustangs 38-34.

Wake Forest vs Mississippi State - Duke's Mayo Bowl

     Two feisty upset-minded teams in their respective conferences fight for the right to have their head coach get a bucket of Duke's Mayo dumped on them. The Demon Deacons and the Bulldogs look to end their season on a high note. Mississippi State came so close all season long to pulling upsets, but couldn't quite get the victory done. Wake pulled off a few upsets, but fell short in a few other games. It's hard to find any big factors that give one team the edge in this game, so I'm going to pick Wake Forest strictly off vibes. Demon Deacons 33, Bulldogs 27.

Nebraska vs #15 Utah - SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl

     My Huskers take on the Utes in their first game since 2005 without Kyle Whittingham. Morgan Scalley steps in as the new head man in Salt Lake City, and he's got plenty of firepower at his disposal. Scalley has been with Utah for a while as the coach in waiting, so the Utes won't miss much of a beat in their coaching change. Nebraska is looking for back-to-back bowl wins for the first time since 2008-2009 under Bo Pelini. They'll be without star RB Emmett Johnson as he's off to the NFL, and a number of coaching changes puts some game-planning questions on the table. QB TJ Lateef is expected to start after partially tearing his hamstring against Iowa, and he will still have weapons on the outside to throw to. Nebraska's offense will need to score quickly, especially as Utah's defense ranks 16th in scoring, allowing just 18.7 points per game. There are a number of question marks in the trenches for both sides following a few NFL draft departures from Utah, so whichever team establishes a run game early will certainly have an advantage. Defensively, the Blackshirts will have their hands full against Devon Dampier and the Utes offense. They take good care of the rock as Dampier has just 5 picks on the season with 29 total touchdowns. Tackling him is key as if Dampier gets loose, drives will be extended and the Huskers will fall behind quickly. A special teams spark would be extremely helpful in this game for Nebraska. While I think Utah is the team to win this game, I've picked Nebraska all season purely for love of my school. The season has unfolded very close to what I predicted, but maybe we'll get a bowl game surprise. All we can do is hope, but let's say Nebraska finally steps up and beats a ranked team. Wouldn't that be a wild twist to end 2025 with? GO BIG RED as they upset Utah 26-23. That's a pick from the heart, but if I was picking with my head I'd say Utah 34, Nebraska 17.

College Football Playoff Quarter-Finals:

#10 Miami vs #2 Ohio State - Goodyear Cotton Bowl

     The first of our quarter-final matchups gives us a 2002 Fiesta Bowl rematch between the Buckeyes and the Hurricanes. Ohio State had a BYE in the first round while Miami went into College Station and knocked off Texas A&M 10-3. The Hurricanes bring a formidable defensive front to Dallas, ranking 4th in sacks (41), 12th in tackles for loss (88) and 11th in opponent 3rd down conversion (31.4%). Offensively I still don't trust Carson Beck much, but the run game with Mark Fletcher Jr. was certainly a boost against A&M. Ohio State has playmakers all over the field, but none better than WR Jeremiah Smith, a Miami native. He's nearly impossible to guard and will be a tough matchup for all of Maimi's secondary. Their goal needs to be getting pressure early and often. The Buckeye's offensive line were overrun by Indiana in the BIG 10 Championship, so expect for Ryan Day to make adjustments and give QB Julian Sayin some extra blockers in the pocket. This game is hard to predict as Miami's defense looked better than expected at A&M, but I think Ohio State still has too much talent. Buckeyes beat Miami 27-21.

#5 Oregon vs #4 Texas Tech - Capital One Orange Bowl

     The Ducks and the Red Raiders meet in South Florida for a chance to move on in the College Football Playoffs. Oregon fell to Ohio State in this round last season, trying to make amends this year against Texas Tech. Both teams stumbled just once this year, so this is truly a battle of two of the nation's best. Oregon is led by QB Dante Moore, who's accounted for 3,046 pass yards and 30 total TDs. He'll be up against one of the nation's top defenses as Texas Tech seemingly lives in opposing backfields with 39 sacks and 96 tackles for loss. Offensively, both of these teams feast on big plays, ranking in the top 3 of plays of more than 20 yards. Oregon will look to get their ground game going early, but stopping the run could be a different story. The Ducks gave up 186 rush yards to James Madison in the first round, so expect the Red Raiders to test the defense early and often. I've been high on Oregon all year, but Texas Tech looks like a team built for this kind of game. Linebackers David Bailey and Jacob Rodriguez are my key factors and I expect them to make a couple of key stops to seal this game for Texas Tech. Guns up, Wreck 'em as the Red Raiders win 27-21 over the Ducks.

#9 Alabama vs #1 Indiana - Rose Bowl

     The Alabama Crimson Tide take on the Indiana Hoosiers in the Rose Bowl as the SEC and BIG 10 collide once again. One of College Football's blue bloods against one of the historically worst programs, but the latter is favored. Alabama comes in having turned things around midway through the game with Oklahoma, after being down 17-0 to start. The Tide struggled late in the year, and I'm anxious to see how they hold up against the physicality of Indiana. The Hoosiers are a bruising football team, focused on causing havoc in the backfield. Indiana ranks 6th with 39 sacks on the season and 3rd in opponent 3rd down conversions, allowing just 27%. The Hoosiers will be without star defensive linemen Kellen Wyatt and Stephen Daley. However, they do get their leading receiver, Omar Cooper Jr. back to help Heisman winner Fernando Mendoza. Alabama's defense stepped up against Oklahoma, but there are plenty of holes to be found. The Hoosiers are much more balanced on offense, so if the Tide can't make them one dimensional, they'll be in trouble. Alabama will look to keep Ty Simpson clean in the pocket, which should be easier since the Hoosiers will be down a couple of stars. However, Curt Cignetti isn't afraid of dialing up unique blitzes, so Bama will need to get the run game going to open up passing lanes. Nothing would make me happier than a Hoosier beat down on the Crimson Tide, but I'll settle for a close win as well. I truly think Indiana is the better team after watching these two play throughout the season, and they're going to prove it out in Pasadena tomorrow. Indiana beat Bama for the roses and for the playoff win 31-24.

#6 Ole Miss vs #3 Georgia - Allstate Sugar Bowl

     An SEC rematch with the Rebels and the Bulldogs playing for higher stakes on the line. Georgia has been on a tear late in the season, most notably avenging their loss against Alabama in the SEC Championship Game. Ole Miss is looking to avenge their only loss on the season as the Bulldogs won the shootout between the hedges earlier this year. Trinidad Chambliss and Kewan Lacy are the key factors in this game, acting as the spark plug for the Rebels' offense. They'll need to be at there best, because Georgia's offense will be hard to stop. We could be in for another shootout, and that's where I get nervous for the Rebels. They need to force a turnover or two to win this game, and Georgia tends to be the team to get turnovers. I'll take the Bulldogs once again, it's just so hard to beat them in the playoffs. I'm rooting for the Rebels, but I'll say Georgia wins 38-28.

FCS National Championship:

Illinois State vs Montana State

     The Red Birds of Illinois State have nearly completed the impossible, winning every game on the road, as major underdogs, to earn a spot in the FCS National Championship. They're taking on the Bobcats of Montana State who are looking to make amends from last year's 3 point loss to North Dakota State. Both offenses are sensational, and if you've got time you need to tune into this game. Montana State is favored, they've got the pedigree. But there's something special about this Illinois State team. I picked the bobcats last year, and I do like their team a lot. But this is a special season, so give me the Red Birds in a Natty run unmatched by anyone. Illinois State defeats Montana State 37-31.

Thanks for reading all my bowl game predictions and be sure to look for my upcoming CFB Playoff Predictions as we move through the post-season. GO BIG RED!

#CFBKnowItAll

Alex Fernando

December 23 - 27 Bowl Games

      Hello Football Friends! My apologies on missing the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl in my picks yesterday, but I did have Wazzu winning that one. Regardless, this post will cover the next few days of Bowl Games and get us over to the weekend. Enjoy!

Bowl Record: 5 - 3

CFP Record: 3 - 1

Bowl Game Predictions:

Toledo vs Louisville - Bush's Boca Raton Bowl

     The Rockets come into Bowl Season on a 4-game winning streak, looking to knock off a Power 4 opponent to end their season. Jeff Brohm and the Cardinals stumbled quite a bit to end the year, falling in 3-straight games to Cal, Clemson and SMU, knocking them out of ACC contention. Combining that with the rumors of Michigan going after Jeff Brohm as their new Head Coach, this game could be one to watch as an upset. The tricky piece for the Rockets is running their team without Head Coach Jason Candle who is off to UConn, and Defensive Coordinator Vince Kehres who was hired by Syracuse. Since Jeff Brohm is still with the Cards, I'll give them a nod. Look for Miller Moss to put up big numbers to end the season, Toledo ranked 7th against the pass this year, but we'll see how things go without their DC. Louisville gives Brohm some reasons to stay with a 33-21 win.

Western Kentucky vs Southern Miss - New Orleans Bowl

     The Hilltoppers offensive production has not been what it used to be just a few seasons ago, but they've managed to reach a bowl game for the 7th consecutive year and now have 12 of the last 14 seasons. An impressive feat for WKU, and they get to take on the Golden Eagles of Southern Miss. The team that finished last in the Sun Belt a year ago was 1 win away from going to the Conference Championship. Former Marshall Head Coach Charles Huff can be thanked for that, but he's now the former Southern Miss Head Coach as he's accepted the job at Memphis. The Golden Eagles are lead by star QB Braylon Braxton, who played for Huff both at Marshall and this year at Southern Miss. He's thrown for more than 5,700 yards in his career including a career high 2,796 this season to go along with 23 TDs and 7 picks. He's looking to break 3,000 yards passing against the Hilltoppers 69th ranked pass defense. Western Kentucky suffered a number of injuries throughout the season, most notably to QB Maverick McIvor. We'll likely see Rodney Tisdale Jr. at QB, but there is a chance McIvor can come back, not having played since October 14th. Neither team has much of a run game to lean on, but the Golden Eagles are +12 in turnover margin while the Hiltoppers are -5. Give me Southern Miss to win 38-33.

UNLV vs Ohio - Scooter's Coffee Frisco Bowl

     The stories with the Frisco Bowl start with the Ohio Bobcats firing head coach Brian Smith who was promoted to HC after being moved up from the OC position last year. The current OC, Kevin Johns will be running the show for the bowl game, and the University is expected to make a coaching hire afterwards. The Bobcats finished tied for 2nd in the MAC, but the tiebreaker gave Miami (OH) a bid to the conference title game despite the Bobcats having the head-to-head win. QB Parker Navaro is the player to watch in green as his dual-threat ability has given opposing defenses headaches all season. He's accounted for 22 total TDs with more than 3,000 total yards of offense. He's supported by Senior RB Sieh Bangura, who's averaging 5.6 yards per carry with more than 1,200 yards and 14 TDs. On the other sideline, UNLV has been living on the edge all season long with a 5-1 record in one-score games. Head Coach Dan Mullen has done well in his first season back on the sidelines, leading the Rebels to a 10-3 record with an appearance in the Conference Title game (via tiebreaker). Junior QB Anthony Colandrea leads the way with 3,275 yards and 23 TDs. He's thrown just 8 picks, but also has some dual-threat ability rushing for 9 TDs and 621 yards. This game should be one of the most entertaining of the week with these two QBs, so be sure to tune into this game. I like both programs a lot, but with a Head Coach being fired, there's a lot of distractions in Ohio right now. I'll take the Rebels 37-31.

Cal vs Hawaii - Sheraton Hawaii Bowl

     It's a Island reunion for Christmas Eve as Cal Interim Head Coach Nick Rolovich (former Hawaii HC) and QB Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (Hawaiian Native) return to the islands to take on the fighting Rainbow Warriors, who are led by Timmy Chang, coaching at his alma mater. This should be a very entertaining game, both teams looking to end the season on a high note. Cal fired Head Coach Justin Wilcox after a bad loss to Stanford, but bounced back to end the season by knocking SMU out of the ACC Championship. Hawaii was a bit up and down this season, falling short in some games toward the end of the year. However, they've posted their best season since 2019 with an 8-4 record. This game will feature two freshman QBs with a group of wide receivers that can rip secondaries to shreds. The Rainbow Warriors rank 10th in passing this season while Cal isn't far behind at 23rd. The big stat I'm watching in this game will be who can convert on 3rd down. Hawaii is holding opponents to around 35% conversions while Cal's defense is holding teams to 41%. If these QB's can keep the chains moving, the team that does that the best will win. I've enjoyed watching both of these teams over the season, and am looking forward to their jumps next year. Hard to go against the home team on Christmas Eve though, give me Hawaii with a 30-28 win over Cal.

Central Michigan vs Northwestern - GameAbove Sports Bowl

     The Wildcats and Chippewas meet in Detroit for somewhat of a home bowl game for Central Michigan. Both teams ended the year on a sour note, losing to Toledo and Illinois, but a bowl win could certainly help end the season on a high. Preston Stone makes his final start of his college career, looking to add to his 2,174 yards and 14 TDs. He'll need to be careful with turnovers as he's thrown 12 picks already this season and the Chippewas are +8 in turnover margin on the season with 12 picks themselves. Central Michigan's offense doesn't have much to hang their hat on, and Northwestern's defense doesn't give up much, allowing just 20.9 points per game. I'll lean on a BIG 10 defense to win the game here, so give me the Wildcats 24-14.

New Mexico vs Minnesota - Rate Bowl

     The Gophers head out to the desert to take on the Lobos coming from one state over. New Mexico has had an absolutely magical season under first year Head Coach Jason Eck. The Lobos were gutted after last season, losing their coach and all their best players. However, they responded by posting a 9-3 record and missing the Mountain West Championship because of a tiebreaker. Jason Eck has this team riding high, looking for their 10th win of the season. Minnesota comes in at 7-5, led by Freshman QB Drake Lindsey who's thrown for 2,235 yards with 16 TDs and just 6 picks. The Gopher defense has been spotty at times, and although I want to see the BIG 10 do well, it's hard to go against the Lobos this year. They're on a six-game win streak and I expect them to make it seven. Give me the Lobos to beat the Gophers 31-27.

Florida International vs UTSA - SERVPRO First Responder Bowl

     The FIU Panthers have found themselves in a bowl game for the first time since 2019. Willie Simmons has done wonders in his first season, going 7-5 and finishing the year on a four game win streak. The Road Runners were great at home this year, knocking off Tulane, and East Carolina, but struggled at times on the road. This game will be in their home state, but don't discount FIU. Both squads have fantastic Senior Running Backs, so look for a heavy dose of the ground game early on. Robert Henry Jr. from USTA has 1,045 yards with 9 TDs and a 6.9 yard per carry average to his name, while his counterpart, Kejon Owens from FIU has 1,298 yards with 11 TDs and 6.3 yards per carry average. The difference maker in this game looks to be USTA QB Owen McCown. He's thrown for 2,700 yards with 27 TDs and just 7 picks on the season. I imagine this one will be a high-scoring affair, but I'll take the Road Runners to edge them out. Meep Meep for a 38-35 victory.

Pittsburgh vs East Carolina - Go Bowling Military Bowl

     The Panthers and the Pirates both come in at 8-4 having pulled a few upsets throughout the season. Both teams have dynamic QBs with ECU's Katin Houser and Pitt's Mason Heintschel. Houser has 3,300 yards with 19 TDs and just 6 picks on the season. Heintschel took over the QB1 spot after a few games as the backup, but still put up 2,098 yards with 12 TDs and 7 picks. Both defenses will be tested throughout the game, and if you haven't watched ECU yet this year, don't sleep on the Pirates. They rank 28th in turnover margin with +6 and 12th in 3rd down conversion rate with 50%. I like Pitt a lot and this team will be dangerous in 2026, but ECU has been one of my sneaky teams to watch this year, give me the Pirates for a bowl upset 34-31.

Penn State vs Clemson - Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl

     If you told anyone we'd get a Penn State-Clemson matchup in the post-season, I think we'd all be pretty excited. However, the Nittany Lions and Tigers are meeting in the Pinstripe Bowl rather than the College Football playoff after very disappointing seasons. Penn State has made a coaching change while Clemson is looking to overturn their roster. Speaking of rosters, they will both be depleted in this game as many players are opting out for the portal, the NFL draft or injuries. It's hard to get a feel for how this game will play out, but I'll give the nod to Dabo. Clemson defeats Penn State 20-10.

UConn vs Army - Wasabi Fenway Bowl

     The Huskies had a fantastic season with a 9-3 record. However, Jim Mora is off to Colorado State, QB Joe Fagnano and WR Skylar Bell are off to the NFL Draft and most of their other key players including star RB Cam Edwards (maybe *hopefully* a future Husker), are in the transfer portal. Even with a roster intact, this would be a tough matchup. The service academies play well in Bowl Games as teams don't know how best to prepare for them with the triple option. Army will grind this one out and beat UConn, but don't let that take away from what the Huskies did this year, this was a very special team. Army wins in Fenway 24-17.

Miami (OH) vs Fresno State - Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl

     The Redhawks and Bulldogs meet in Tucson as Snoop Dogg hosts a bowl game. Miami (OH) has a few opt outs, including QB Dequan Finn. Fresno State had a strong year, finishing 8-4 including a big win on the road at Boise back on November 1st. Their defense has been tough to move the ball on all season, ranking 14th in total yards allowed and 25th in points allowed. Without their main weapon on offense I don't see the Redhawks having much success in this game. Fresno State wins the Snoop Dogg Bowl to represent Cali 28-10.

#25 North Texas vs San Diego State - Isleta New Mexico Bowl

     Two teams that were near the top of their respective conferences meet, but coaching hires and transfers will certainly limit the excitement of this game. Mean Green Head Coach Eric Morris is off the Oklahoma State and star QB Drew Mestemaker is in the portal, but it does sound like he will play in this game. San Diego State has a couple of defensive players in the portal, likely because my Huskers took Rob Aurich away from the Aztecs to fill their Defensive Coordinator position. The Aztecs strength was their defense all season, ranking 4th in points allowed with 12.6 per game. North Texas beat most of their opponents by racking up 50+ on them, something they did in 3 of their last 4 games. If Mestemaker plays, this team will put up points on anyone. SDSU is a tough team to beat, but they don't have the offense to keep pace in a track meet. Give me the Mean Green to win 38-28.

#19 Virginia vs Missouri - TaxSlayer Gator Bowl

     The Cavaliers were just a few plays away from the College Football Playoffs, but their overtime loss in the ACC Championship held them out. Chandler Morris is set to play his last game of College Football, and he's been sensational all season. Throwing for more than 2,800 yards with 16 TDs and 9 picks, he led Virginia to their first ACC Championship game since 2019. Missouri will be without their QB, Beau Pribula, who is back in the transfer portal just one season after leaving Penn State mid-playoffs last year. They do still have Sophomore RB Ahmad Hardy though, and his 6.5 yards per carry will look to give Virginia headaches all game. The Cavs do rank 21st in rush defense though, and if they can bottle up Hardy early, Mizzou may not have many other options. I'll take the Cavs for a big win to end their season on a high note. Virginia 30, Missouri 23.

LSU vs #21 Houston - Kinder's Texas Bowl

     Before the Lane Kiffin era can begin in Baton Rouge, the Tigers take one Houston in Houston. The Cougars have a short commute for this bowl game, just heading across town to NRG Stadium, but they have a lot left to prove for a team that let a Big XII Championship opportunity slip through their hands with a couple of questionable home losses to West Virginia and TCU late in the season. LSU comes in with a number of players prepping for the NFL draft, but talent still hangs on this team. The Tigers' defense hasn't let an opponent score more than 22 points since November started, and Houston's offense was up and down this season. Neither team runs the ball well, so strong performances from the QB position is crucial. Connor Weigman has done well with the Cougars since leaving A&M, and I think he'll have a big night. Anxious to see how motivated LSU is for this one, but I think Houston will be playing in their home city. Cougars beat the Tigers 26-21.

#22 Georgia Tech vs #12 BYU - Pop-Tarts Bowl (The People's National Championship)

     The game we've all been waiting for during Bowl Season, The Pop-Tarts Bowl! Georgia Tech takes the place of Notre Dame as they opted out, and BYU awaits on the the other sprinkle-laced sideline. This is always an entertaining event with the Pop-Tarts show and eating a live mascot, but the on-field action shouldn't disappoint either. The Ramblin' Wreck had the wheels fall off late in the season, losing 3 of their last 4. BYU has as strong an argument as anyone to be upset with being left out of the Playoffs, losing twice to Texas Tech, a top 4 team, both in the state of Texas. Regardless, HC Kalani Sitake is here to stay for the Cougars, and just like Georgia Tech, they want to run through you, not past you. Both of these teams feature fantastic dual-threat QBs in Haynes King (GT - 3,600+ total yards, 27 total TDs) and Bear Bachmeier (BYU - 3,200+ total yards, 25 total TDs). They're complimented by equally fantastic RBs with Jamal Haynes (GT) and LJ Martin (BYU). This is set up to be a battle of hard-nosed, rugged football, and then we get to watch a mascot be eaten after going into a giant toaster. Show me there's a better sport in the world, I'll wait. I've loved both teams and sad they couldn't quite make it to the big show, but this is the People's National Championship. I'm going BYU as the Cougars once again make a post-season statement, they are a team you don't want to mess with in College Football. Cougars beat the Yellow Jackets 30-28.

Thanks for reading all my Bowl Game Predictions and enjoy a full weekend of College Football!

#CFBKnowItAll

Alex Fernando

December 16 - 20th Bowl Games & CFB Playoff 1st Round

      Welcome to Bowl Season football friends! Boise State and Washington started things off with the Bucked Up LA Bowl this past weekend, won 38-10 by the Huskies. Now we move into a full week of Bowl Games as we honor some great seasons for teams across the nation. It's the time of year where we learn about a number of random companies you never knew existed as they tie their sponsorship to a bowl game. This week's post will also include prediction on the FCS semi-final games (which unfortunately do not include either of my South Dakota teams this year), along with the first round of the College Football Playoffs at campus host sites. So many great games to get to, so here are all my predictions!

Current Bowl Record: 1-0

Bowl Game Predictions:

Troy vs Jacksonville State - IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl

     Our first bowl game of the week gives us the Sun Belt and C-USA runner-ups with the Trojans and the Gamecocks. Both teams fell short in the conference title games, but have a lot to be proud of with 8-5 seasons for Gerad Parker (2nd Season) and Charles Kelly (1st Season). Troy was eaten alive on the line of scrimmage against James Madison, giving up 8 sacks and 14 tackles for loss to the Dukes. The Gamecocks average 2 sacks per game and 5.6 tackles for loss per game, so they could look to win the line of scrimmage early. Offensively for Jacksonville State, they'll be handing it off to Junior RB Cam Cook. He's racked up 1,659 yards with 16 TDs on the ground, averaging 5.6 yards per carry and has been held under 100 yards just twice this season. I think he'll rumble the Gamecocks to victory 30-21.

Old Dominion vs South Florida - StaffDNA Cure Bowl

     The Monarchs finish 9-3 on the season with 2 of those losses being to Playoff teams in Indiana and James Madison. This team has put up points all year, ranking 29th in scoring offense with 32.7 points per game. South Florida was a heavy favorite to get a Playoff bid, but late season losses to Memphis and Navy knocked them out of contention. Head Coach Alex Golesh is off to Auburn, but former Buckeye star wideout and now star OC Brian Hartline will be the new man in charge following the Bowl Game. Unfortunately, neither team will have their star QBs as Colton Joseph (ODU) and Byrum Brown (USF) have both opted out of this game, with Joseph looking to transfer. Both players were the leading passers and rushers for their respective squads, so we'll get a good look at what both teams could look like next year with a lot of younger players in the mix. Old Dominion has other pieces of their offense still playing, so I'll give them the nod 27-20.

Louisiana vs Deleware - 68 Ventures Bowl

     The Deleware Blue Hens are bowling for the first time in their FBS careers, heading to Mobile, Alabama to take on the Ragin' Cajuns. It's been an up and down season for both squads, but Louisiana ended the year with 4 straight wins to become bowl eligible at 6-6. Neither team has much to hold their hat on defensively, so we could see some points in this game. The Ragin' Cajuns have a strong run game with 3 different runners posting over 600 yards and multiple TDs on the ground. I'm hoping the Blue Hens put up a fight, but the ground game from the Ragin' Cajuns will be too much to handle. Louisiana 37, Delaware 24.

Missouri State vs Arkansas State - Xbox Bowl

     One of the best bowl trophies/sponsors in the field, the Xbox Bowl features another FBS newcomer, Missouri State against Arkansas State. A bit of a boarder war is set for battle in Frisco, Texas as the Red Wolves and Bears look to finish the year strong. Missouri State lost their final two games of the season while Arkansas State pulled off a 1 point win on the road at Appalachian State to get to a bowl game. Bears' Head Coach Ryan Beard is off to Conway, South Carolina to coach the Chanticleers, so Arkansas State may have a leg up as the Bears will be without their head man. I've really enjoyed watching Missouri State throughout the season though, and I'll cheer them on for a bowl win. Everyone gets an Xbox, but only the Bears get the victory 23-20.

Kennesaw State vs Western Michigan - Myrtle Beach Bowl

     The Owls have made an incredible turnaround following their first FBS season, going from 2-10 to 10-3 and winning the CUSA title. They'll match up against the Broncos from Kalamazoo who won the MAC Championship. I always love seeing the G6 conference winners paired up for a bowl game, and this should be an entertaining one. Both QBs bring a dual threat element for defenses to watch out for, but Amari Odom (Kennesaw State) favors the passing attack while Broc Lowry (Western Michigan) favors the ground game. Both players matchup very well statistically, even in the sack category with 17 each. If they can keep their jerseys clean in the backfield, we should see some impressive improvising for big plays. The Owls are more prone to bust one open, posting 65 plays for 20+ yards on the season. I'm excited to see these two offenses, but give me Kennesaw State for a big program win in the Myrtle Beach Bowl. Shoutout to Broc Lowry who has been fantastic in his Sophomore year, I look forward to watching him in the future. Owls 36, Broncos 28.

Memphis vs NC State - Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl

     The last of our "regular" bowl games for the week feature two spoiler teams who helped knock out others from playoff contention. NC State finished the year strong, knocking off Georgia Tech and winning 3 of their last 4. Memphis fell short after spoiling USF's season, losing 3 straight to Tulane, ECU and Navy. Their head man, Ryan Silverfield is headed to Arkansas, but NC State will be without star RB Hollywood Smothers. You never know who's going to play motivated in Bowl Games, but NC State usually shows up week in and week out, even with a down year. Wolfpack win 31-20.

FCS Playoff Predictions:

Illinois State at Villanova

     The fighting Red Birds are on a historic run through the FCS Playoffs, having knocked out the #1 seeded Bison of NDSU on their home turf, and then following that up with a 42-31 win on the road at UC Davis (avenging last year's playoff loss). Illinois State is looking for their second ever National Championship appearance, having lost the other one to NDSU in 2014. Villanova comes into the semifinals after pulling back-to-back upsets of their own against #5 Lehigh and #4 Tarleton State. The Wildcats and the Red Birds have two fantastic QBs, so I expect a shootout. Starting with Villanova, Senior Pat McQuaid has 2,893 yards with 23 TDs and just 3 picks on the season. His go-to target is WR Luke Colella with 73 catches for 1,013 yards and 8 TDs. To anchor the ground game they rely on a trio of running backs who have amassed 2,322 total yards together with 22 touchdowns. Illinois State will certainly have their hands full, but look to give some firepower back the other way. Senior QB Tommy Rittenhouse has more than 3,000 yards to his name this season with 34 TDs and 11 picks. Victor Dawson grinds it out on the ground with 5.1 yards per carry and star wideout Daniel Sobkowicz is the redzone threat with 16 TD catches on the season. I would certainly recommend tuning into this game, the FCS playoffs have been electric. I'm going with the Red Birds in a magical season to beat Villanova 38-36.

Montana at Montana State - Brawl of the Wild (2.0 - Playoff Edition)

     One of the best rivalries in all of college football is set to take place for the second time in a month as the Grizzlies and Bobcats meet for Brawl of the Wild, playoff edition. Despite over 100 years of history and 124 previous meetings, this will be the first in the postseason. These two FCS programs always get so close, but can't seem to close the deal on a championship. Montana State fell short last year by 3 to the Bison of NDSU and also lost in the championship in 2021 to NDSU. Montana was in the middle with a 2023 championship loss to my home state Jackrabbits of SDSU. Now, with their rival across from them, there's a spot waiting in the National Title game for only one. Starting with the Griz, this is one of the best offenses in all of football. Averaging 42.3 points per game, they're led by Sophomore QB Keal'l Ah Yat and Junior RB Eli Gillman. Ah Yat has nearly 4,000 passing yards in his first year as a starter, throwing for 32 touchdowns with just 8 picks and adding another 7 scores on the ground. Gillman is a workhorse in the backfield, currently sitting at 234 carries and averaging 6.1 yards each time he's handed the rock. It's hard to keep him out of the endzone with 22 total TDs this season. As for the Bobcats, they won the first meeting on the road, but now get to host this one at home. Their offense isn't far behind, averaging 37.4 points per game, but the defense is where they excel. Allowing just 17.6 points per game, they give up just 33% of third down conversions and are +16 in turnover margin. Montana is right behind with +14, but something the Bobcats love to do is let their defense put up points. They've got 4 defensive touchdowns this season, including a pick 6 against the Griz in the last meeting. This is a must watch if you're a college football fan, the rivalry and trophy make it all the better. I'm going to implement my rule for this one, you never want to play a team twice. Honoring the shared mascot of Standing Bear High School where I coach, let's go Griz! Montana defeats Montana State 27-24 in the Brawl of the Wild 2.0.

College Football Playoff 1st Round:

#9 Alabama at #8 Oklahoma

     The first round of the CFB Playoffs features one of two matchups. Starting with two of college football's Blue Bloods, Alabama and Oklahoma meet in Norman for the right to move on. Oklahoma has had Bama's number since joining the SEC, winning both regular season matchups including one just over a month ago on November 15th. The Sooners' defense has been suffocating this year, racking up 41 sacks (tied for 1st), 115 tackles for loss (1st), and allowing just under 29% of opposing 3rd downs to be converted (6th). Alabama struggled late in the season and despite out-gaining Oklahoma in the last meeting, turnovers have been key factors in their losses. Many (including myself) are still a bit frustrated with Bama being let into the playoffs after getting stomped by Georgia in the SEC Championship Game, but we'll see if the couple weeks off have helped them get back to their form from mid-season. Senior RB Jam Miller is expected to play, but he's not been very effective. Alabama is ranked 117th in the nation for rush offense, which means winning this game will likely be put on the shoulders of Ty Simpson. He'll have to deal with OU's star defensive lineman, R Mason Thomas, who is back from injury and ready to demolish the backfield. If OU can force turnovers again, this game could go the way of the Sooners quickly. For Alabama, their defense should be well equipped to slow down Oklahoma. The Sooner's have struggled on offense since Mateer's hand injury in September, ranking 90th in the nation for total yards and 77th in points per game with 26.4. If Alabama can get out of the gates early, they should win this game. I'm hoping Boomer Sooner will take care of business yet again, but this is a very difficult task to beat a team twice in just over a month. Playing at home will help, but I fear my rule will take effect here, Bama wins 30-21.

#10 Miami at #7 Texas A&M

     Arguably the most anticipated game of the 1st round, Miami and Texas A&M meet in College Station, TX needing to send a message. The Aggies struggled to end the season, needing a major comeback to beat South Carolina and being dismantled yet again by the Longhorns up in Austin. The Texas loss knocked them out of the SEC Championship Game for the second year in a row and poor offensive performances to finish the year have folks questioning this A&M squad. Miami jumps into the playoffs thanks to BYU losing to Texas Tech, but how legit are the 'Canes? Their two losses are a close one at home to Louisville and in overtime at SMU. They've rolled most everyone else and I'm very excited to see how this defense matches up against A&M's offense. The Aggies are very explosive, especially downfield with wideouts KC Concepcion and Mario Craver. Both average more than 15 yards per catch and are approaching 1,000 yard seasons. Miami and A&M have some of the best offensive and defensive lines, so whoever can get more push in the trenches, especially late in the game, will be taking this one. I've really enjoyed the job Mike Elko has done at A&M in the 2 years as Head Coach, and I think this team is very dangerous in the playoffs. They always seem to fall short in big moments, but that's the same story for Miami. Mario Cristobal has some very questionable clock and game management decisions, so I'll go with Texas A&M. Playing at home will be a big advantage for this game. Gig 'Em 31-24.

#11 Tulane at #6 Ole Miss

     The second rematch of the first rounds brings us to the Grove in Oxford, Mississippi. Tulane is looking to make amends for earlier in the season where Ole Miss trounced them 45-10. The Green Wave could not get anything going on offense in that game, totaling just 282 yards. The Rebels exploded for 548 yards with Trinidad Chambliss having is break out game in place of the injured Austin Simmons. Chambliss accounted for more than 400 total yards himself with 2 TD passes. I expect the Rebels offense to be high-flying yet again, even without Lane Kiffin. That's the big question in this game as both teams have head coaches moving on, but one is already gone. John Sumrall will coach Tulane through the playoffs before fully taking over in Gainesville, but Kiffin is not part of the Ole Miss program any more. Tulane QB Jake Retzlaff looks much more comfortable in the offense than back on September 22, so look for the Green Wave offense to put up more of a fight. If a G6 team is going to pull an upset in the playoffs, this could be the best chance to do it. They're familiar with the opponent, the environment and have more of their weapons developed through the season. Tulane will need turnovers early, but I expect this one to be closer than last time. It's tough to win on the road though, and home field in the playoffs is a big advantage. Rebels win 38-20.

#12 James Madison at #5 Oregon

     The last playoff game of the weekend features the Dukes of James Madison and the Ducks of Oregon. Separate of the game itself, one of the best things in College Football this past week or so has been the @JMUSportsNews on X trolling Oregon with very sarcastic content. Understanding their team is up against a tall task in Eugene, the account highlights how Oregon isn't prepared for a team like JMU and a number of other funny comments on various Oregon Football videos. If they can't win on the field, they've won in the socials. To the real game though, this should be a great opportunity for Oregon to make a statement as one of the forgotten teams in this playoff. Despite being the #1 seed last year, they had a much more difficult path highlighted by the Rose Bowl loss to Ohio State. The Ducks have been tough to beat at home, Indiana being the first team to do it since Washington in 2022. JMU brings a balanced offensive attack led by a power run game with QB Alonza Barnett III and RB Wayne Knight. Knight will look to break through this Oregon defense with his 6.6 yards per carry and 1,263 yards. He pull the pressure off of Barnett who has rushed for 14 TD of his own and does well to take care of the ball with just 8 picks this season. Oregon's defense ranks 20th against the run, so it will be interesting to see if JMU can find any space to move. Offensively for the Ducks, Dante Moore leads the 13th best offense in the nation. His ability to pick apart defenses will be tough for JMU to stop, especially with the run game he's supported by. The Ducks will be handing it off to a couple of different backs, Noah Whittington (774 yards, 6.9 average, 6 TDs) and Jordon Davison (535 yards, 6.1 average, 13 TDs). I expect the Ducks to put this one away early and hold down the JMU offense apart from a couple of big plays. JMU will be playing hard, but Oregon is still one of the best teams in the nation even if everyone else is forgetting that. Ducks over the Dukes 45-7.

Thanks for reading all my playoff predictions and enjoy a fantastic weekend of college football. More bowl picks on the way next week!

#CFBKnowItAll

Alex Fernando

Playoff Rankings, Army/Navy & Bucked Up LA Bowl

     Welcome to the College Football Postseason! We've got the Playoff Bracket set, bowl games ready to roll and most importantly, we've got Army vs Navy today! This post will have my reflections on the CFP Committee decisions and a few thoughts on the playoffs along with picks for Army/Navy and Boise State/Washington. Much to get to, so let's dive in!

Conference Championship Results: 4 - 5

     The College Football Playoff Committee announced their rankings last week following conference championship weekend, and sparking some controversy by keeping Alabama in and bumping out Notre Dame. Unfortunately, this is what I expected to happen. More unfortunately, it's not unreasonable to think that money is a factor here. ESPN owns the broadcast rights to the ACC and SEC. With each conference receiving $5 million per team in the playoffs, it's hard to say that wasn't part of the calculation. Most notably because of how Bama moved above Notre Dame during rivalry week because they beat Auburn by 7 and the Irish beat Stanford by 29. The Committee Chair spent time after each ranking show in the previous weeks talking about how Alabama's first half against Auburn was a key factor in why they moved ahead. Then, after amassing an impressive -3 rushing yards in the SEC Championship and getting stomped by Georgia and a largely uncompetitive game, the Tide did not move one spot in the rankings. They were not punished for losing (badly) in a conference title game, which is fine if that's the case for other teams too. However, BYU, Virginia and Ohio State all dropped in rankings spots after losing their conference championship game, so why does Alabama get special treatment. In all honesty, I think the Committee botched this one. Notre Dame has two close losses to other teams in the Playoff field and have crushed everyone else in their way. Alabama has 3 losses, one of them to a 5-7 team and did not finish the season looking particularly well. The opportunity was set up perfectly for the committee to show they value the eye test and playing competitive games. Remember that Alabama was in the SEC Championship game because of a tie breaker and both A&M and Ole Miss who are rated higher were left out. Conference realignment has screwed up most of this, resulting in Duke taking the ACC crown after a 7-5 regular season but winning the conference title bid via tiebreaker. Their overtime win against Virginia knocked out the Cavs and nearly knocked out the ACC from the bracket. But again, money moves drops Big XII BYU (despite their only losses being to a top 4 team) and moves up Miami who did not play. Personally, I don't mind that both Tulane and James Madison got into the field, I think it's good for the sport if you have access to more teams and honor the work they put into the season. It's ridiculous to have a sport where have the teams are out of contention just for existing. We love the upsets and chaos of March Madness with lower-level teams in the bracket, but for football teams they don't get the same respect. The argument between best and most deserving is always a heated one with respect to the rankings, but why play the games then? If you win a majority of your games and look good doing it, why shouldn't you have a shot at the title? I think there needs to be an adjustment from full committee selection, or at least the process of how certain teams are impacted by performances that others of the same or similar status are not. It's not a perfect system, it likely won't be for a long time, but I do think this one is better than the last.

     As for the Irish declining a bowl game, this is a unique stance with a big statement. Notre Dame feels their body of work was not well respected among the committee, and the same group that kept them out of the playoffs still want them to participate in a bowl game to make more money with their performance on TV for the broadcast. On one hand, this sucks for the players (although it was a team decision), the fans and the program. They are forfeiting extra practice which are crucial reps for younger players. They are forfeiting an opportunity for their fans to travel and participate in bowl game activities. Most importantly, they're forfeiting another football game. As a former player of this great sport, there's not a day that goes by where I don't want to throw on pads and a helmet for one more shot on the field. It's a game that truly ends abruptly, even without injury. Giving up one of those finite moments is not any easy choice. However, I do understand and somewhat agree with the statement Notre Dame is trying to make. The Committee didn't see them as one of the best teams and they don't feel that is a fair assessment on them. Why would they want to go play and make more money for the organizations who shut them out? If you want things to change, take some money away from folks and you'll get their attention very quickly. Now Notre Dame may not have the full brand power they believe, but that is yet to be determined in how they choose to structure their alignment within the sport moving forward. The last piece to watch for this is the battle with the ACC. Notre Dame is claiming the conference essentially threw them under the bus in order to promote Miami into the playoffs. While I don't fully agree with this, the lobbying for certain teams to be in and others to be out went well beyond the social media posts. The Irish may look into other conference partnership options as an independent, and that could be fun to watch shake out.

     Shifting over to the games, Army and Navy play while we also haven an early bowl game, so College Football marches on. I've got my predictions below and will have more picks through the bowl slate soon. Enjoy!

Army vs Navy

     The Midshipmen very nearly found themselves playing for an American Conference title, but the tiebreaker fell to North Texas due to their head-to-head win. Army won the Conference a year ago but has struggled to finish out games this year, losing 4 of their 5 losses by one score. Navy has been nearly impossible to stop all year, led by star QB Blake Horvath. He's the difference-maker in this game, averaging 6 yards per carry while also throwing for nearly 1,400 on the season. He's accounted for 23 touchdowns and will be looking to continue his dominance against the Black Knights. In last season's 31-13 victory for Navy, Horvath accounted for 107 pass yards with 2 TDs and 204 rushing yards (8.2 ypc average) with 2 TDs. Army has a +5 turnover margin on the season, so look for them to be aggressing when ripping at that ball. This is always a great battle between some of the nation's most overlooked athletes, who are also serving our country. Winners all around no matter what, but give me Blake Horvath and the Midshipmen with another big win. Go Navy, Beat Army 30-17.

Boise State vs Washington - Bucked Up LA Bowl

     Played at Sofi Stadium just a day before my Rams do, the Broncos and the Huskies meet for the first bowl game of the season. This one could be nicknamed the Chris Petersen Bowl since he famously coached both programs, but I am intrigued by the QB matchup we've got. Demond Williams Jr. for Washington and Maddux Madsen for the Broncos have both been fantastic this season. Madsen missed a few weeks for injuries, but returned last week to help Boise State claim their third straight (and likely final) Mountain West Conference title. He threw for 289 yards with 3 TDs and added another one on the ground. When he's playing, the Broncos' offense is nearly impossible to stop. The Huskies' defense will have their hands full, and I'm anxious to see if they can apply pressure, because that's where they've struggled this season. On the offensive side of the ball for UW, a heavy ground attack is going to set up play-action. Washington is hoping RB Jonah Coleman will be healthy after a couple of weeks resting, providing QB Demond Williams Jr. with some relief. Regardless, Williams Jr. does very well with his own legs, rushing for nearly 600 yards this season with 6 TDs on the ground and 4.5 yards per carry. He rumbles through contact and is extremely accurate in the passing game. He's thrown for 2,850 yards, completing 70% of his passes and racking up 21 TDs with just 8 picks. If he can keep ahold of the rock, then I think Washington's power on the line of scrimmage will be too much to handle. Give me Washington to represent the BIG 10 well in the opening of Bowl Season with a 34-24 win.

Thank you for reading this week's post and enjoy a couple of great college football games!

#CFBKnowItAll🏈🧠 

Alex Fernando

Conference Championship Predictions

     We've reached Conference Championship Week! There are still some playoff spots that need to be decided following these games, and there could even be two Group of 5 Teams that break into the field with a little help from the Duke Blue Devils. I'll be getting a full season recap out next week ahead of the bowl games, but first, let's pick some conference champions!

Rivalry Week Results: 32 - 16 (66.7%)

Overall Season Results: 247 - 106 (70.0%)

Conference Championship Predictions:

Troy at #25 James Madison - Sun Belt Championship

     The Dukes have a chance at the Playoffs being ranked #25 in the most recent CFP rankings, but first they need to win the Sun Belt. They've been dominating teams for most of the season, led by Junior QB Alonza Barnett III, James Madison has the 10th best scoring offense in the nation at 37.8 points per game. Barnett is flanked by a cast of talent, starting with Wayne Knight at Running Back. He's averaging 6.2 yards per carry and has over 1,000 yards on the season. The Trojans of Troy were a bit up and down to end the season, losing their first two games of November by a combined score of 56-10, but winning the last two weeks to put them into the Sun Belt Championship. Troy will hope the penalty problems pile up on JMU, with the Dukes averaging more than 7 penalties per game. Outside of that, this game tips heavily in favor of the Dukes, and I have them winning in style 45-17. After that JMU will be the biggest group of Duke Blue Devil fans in the nation.

Kennesaw State at Jacksonville State - C-USA Championship

     An exciting rematch between the Owls and the Gamecocks is set for the CUSA Championship. Kennesaw State is having a historic season after going 2-10 last year. They're led by Sophomore QB Amari Odom who's accounted for 24 total TDs this season. He leads an offense that averages over 400 yards per game, and put up nearly 500 on the Gamecocks a few weeks ago. Jacksonville State forced 4 picks that game, ultimately leading to their 35-26 win. The Gamecocks are +9 on the season for turnover margin, and have 21 total takeaways this season. Junior RB Cam Cook helps turn those takeaways to scores, rushing for 15 TDs this season. I always say that you never want to play a team twice in College Football, so I'm invoking that rule and saying the Owls complete a fantastic season and win the Conference USA Championship! Kennesaw State gets revenge 31-27.

UNLV at Boise State - Mountain West Championship

     For the third year in a row we have the Rebels and the Broncos battling for the Mountain West Championship. UNLV and Boise were put in after computer rankings decision following a 4-way tie atop the conference. I think New Mexico had a strong case, especially after beating SDSU and having a win over UNLV, but ultimately the tiebreaker did not go in their favor. For this game, we saw these team meet on the Blue Turf earlier this season, resulting in a Broncos victory 56-31. An impressive first season for the Rebels under Dan Mullen, going 10-2. Their defense has struggled a lot throughout the season, ranking 118th in total defense while also giving up more than 28 points per game. Offensively, Anthony Colandrea has been sensational, passing for more than 3,000 yards with 22 TDs and 8 picks. The former Virginia QB also added 556 yards and 8 TDs on the ground, earning him the Mountain West Offensive Player of the Year award. For Boise State, they get QB Maddux Madsen who they've been without since getting injured early in the Fresno game. He threw for 253 yards with 4 TDs and 1 pick against the Rebels earlier in the season, but being banged up may hinder his abilities in this game. UNLV was shut down in the second half by the Broncos in the first meeting, and they have not defeated Boise State since 1976. I'll stick to my rule of not wanting to play a team twice and I think Dan Mullen has some tricks up his sleeve for this game. Anthony Colandrea showcases that Mountain West Offensive MVP skill and UNL upsets Boise on the home turf 38-31 for a Mountain West Title.

#24 North Texas at #20 Tulane - American Championship

     The Mean Green and the Green Wave clash in the Big Easy as they not only look to add a Conference Title to their season successes, but a spot in the College Football Playoff as well. Both head coaches, John Sumrall (Tulane) and Eric Morris (North Texas) have accepted new jobs at Florida and Oklahoma State respectively for next season. They've both agreed to coach their teams through the conference championship and playoffs pending the outcome of this game. Both could also be looking to bring some of their players with them after the season, but there's a lot at state in this game first. Both teams come in with dynamic offenses, led by sensational QBs. Starting with the Mean Green, Freshman Drew Mastemaker has taken the American by storm, throwing for 3,835 yards with 29 TDs and just 4 picks. North Texas has the nation's 2nd best passing attack while Tulane comes in with the 119th ranked pass defense. The Green Wave have a top notch offense of their own though, led by former BYU QB Jake Retzlaf. He's quickly become one of the American's best playmakers, accounting for more than 3,200 total yards and 28 TDs (14 pass and 14 rush). Both of these teams score at an extremely high rate, so this could be a high-scoring shootout. I really like what John Sumrall has done at Tulane and think he'll elevate the play at Florida quite quickly, but I've kept my eye on North Texas for a while. Eric Morris has developed a number of good QBs from that program including Chandler Morris who is playing for Virginia in the ACC Championship. North Texas's offense is one of the most exciting in the country, and I think they put up a few more points in this shoot out. They've won every road game on their schedule this season and will win one more to go to the playoffs 52-45. Mean Green beat the Green Wave for the American Championship.

Miami (OH) vs Western Michigan - MAC Championship

     The Redhawks and Broncos meet at Ford Field in Detroit to battle out the MAC Championship. Miami (OH) somehow gets the tiebreaker despite losing to both Ohio and Toledo in the last month, both teams they were tied with. Regardless, they're playing in their third straight MAC Championship game while Western Michigan makes their first appearance since their historic 2016 season. The Broncos come in as the top team in the conference, ranking 2nd in points allowed with 18.7 allowed per game. They're led by Sophomore QB Broc Lowry, who's accounted for nearly 2,500 total yards and 21 touchdowns. Western Michigan did lose this matchup back on October 25th, but as we've highlighted with other matchups, you never want to play a team twice. Both teams force a lot of turnovers, so I'm looking at 3rd down conversions. Miami (OH) ranks 116th in conversion rate while Western Michigan ranks 49th. Give me the Broncos to win 27-21.

#11 BYU vs #4 Texas Tech - Big XII Championship

     The Cougars need to win the rematch with Texas Tech if they want to be in the Playoffs. The Red Raiders demolished BYU in the first meeting, winning 29-7 in Lubbock. The Cougars turned the ball over 3 times in that game, but struggled to move against the Red Raider defense regardless. Texas Tech has been dominant all season and are looking for a 1st round BYE and their first ever Big XII title. Their defense is led by Heisman hopeful, Linebacker Jacob Rodriguez, who's racked up 101 total tackles on the season with 1 sack, 7 forced fumbles and 4 picks. He'll be attempting to slow down a BYU rushing attack that ranks 23rd in the nation with nearly 200 yards on the ground per game. Bear Bachmeier and LJ Martin are a load to bring down in the backfield, and both have 11 TDs each on the ground. Texas Tech's offense has been dynamic at times this season, but the Cougars forced them into 5 field goals last time out. If they can do that again and flip the turnover margin into their favor, this game could get interesting. Don't let the Cougars hang around late, because that would certainly give them an opportunity. I believe Texas Tech is one of the best teams in the nation, especially on defense. They've suffocated nearly every opponent this season. However, the Cougars aren't getting much credit from the CFP, they play very fast on defense and love to force teams off the field on 3rd down, ranking as the 16th best 3rd down defense in the nation. I'm picking this one purely for chaos and fun, but I'll say the Cougars play extra motivated after keeping Kalani Sitake. Cougars earn their spot in the College Football Playoffs 26-23 over Texas Tech.

#9 Alabama vs #3 Georgia - SEC Championship

     The Bulldogs and Tide meet yet again in Atlanta after tiebreakers kept Ole Miss and Texas A&M out of the SEC Championship. Alabama won the regular season meeting, controlling the game all the way through for a 24-21 victory between the hedges. Georgia's offense has kicked into gear since then, scoring 35 points or more in 5 of their last 8. Neither team runs the ball well, but Georgia does have a mobile QB in Gunnar Stockton. RB Nate Frazier does have 809 yards to his name on the ground, but he could have some tough sledding against Bama's 36th ranked rush defense. Georgia ranks 6th in rush defense this season, so the Tide's rushing game could potentially be non-existent. This puts a lot of the game plan on Ty Simpson and the passing attack. I anticipate Alabama to be in third and medium to long all evening. This could give Georgia an opportunity to design some creative blitzes, but their pass rush has only netted 17 sacks on the season, ranking 117th in the nation. The big issue is that Kirby Smart always struggles against Alabama. As you can see, there are conflicting stats for either team, but the winner solidifies their spot in the Playoff while the loser may have another team jump them depending on the chaos that could occur on Championship Saturday. I'll go with my rule saying you don't want to play a team twice, mostly because Bama losing causes the CFP Committee more headaches. Bulldogs get revenge in the SEC Championship Game 33-30.

Duke vs #17 Virginia - ACC Championship

     All eyes are on the ACC Championship in Charlotte as the 7-5 Duke Blue Devils find themselves playing for a conference title despite going 0-2 against the top 5 teams in the conference. The 10-2 Miami Hurricanes find themselves sitting at home, waiting for chaos because of the tiebreakers. Virginia has been one of the few consistencies of the ACC this season, but they've had stumbles of their own. Wake Forrest pulled the upset when QB Chandler Morris got hurt, but the Cavs offense is one of the best when Morris is healthy. He's thrown for nearly 2,600 yards with 14 TDs and 7 picks on the season. His secret weapon is Senior RB J'Mari Taylor, and if you haven't watched him play yet, you're in for a treat tonight. I think Taylor is one of the most underrated backs in the nation, contributing in both the ground attack and air raid. He's racked up 997 yards with 14 TDs on the ground, while adding another 219 yards through the air. The transfer from North Carolina Central has never fumbled in his career and loves to run through contact. If Duke wants to pull the upset, they need to force turnovers early and get Darian Mensah extra opportunities to score. Mensah's stats are fantastic in his first season with Duke, throwing for 3,450 yards with 28 TDs and just 4 picks. He's been sacked 24 times this season, so look for Virginia to come after him. They held the Blue Devils to 255 total yards and racked up 4 sacks with 8 tackles for loss just a couple of weeks ago, have things changed since then? Following my rule would cause chaos and potentially send JMU to the College Football Playoff. I would love that, but I think Virginia is a fun team to have in the field, and they've played the most consistent ball in the ACC this season. They love winning close games, and this one should be closer than last time, but give me the Cavs to win the ACC 37-28.

#1 Ohio State vs #2 Indiana - BIG 10 Championship

     Other than a top seed and conference bragging rights, there isn't too much on the line here when you look at the big picture. However, Indiana is seeking their first ever conference title and looking to avenge one of the two losses Curt Cignetti has suffered at Indiana. They Buckeyes are looking to repeat their National Championship run of last year, but have the opportunity to win the BIG 10 this year after sitting out last season due to the Michigan loss. The Buckeyes are lead by stars all over the field, and QB Julian Sayin has played very well in his first year as a starter. He's thrown for over 3,000 yards with 30 TDs and just 5 picks. With weapons like Carnell Tate and Jeremiah Smith, it's not hard to rack up those yards, but he makes great decisions with his reads and rarely puts the ball in danger. His top Heisman competition is across the field as Fernando Mendoza has really leveled up this Hoosier offense. Mendoza transferred from Cal and has dominated the BIG 10 this season, accounting for over 3,000 total yards of offense with 38 touchdowns and 5 picks on his own. Defense is the big story in this game and how they will handle these QBs. Ohio State has suffocated every single opponent this year, not allowing a single opponent to score more than 16 on the year. Indiana's defense has been leaky at times, but no matter what happens, they get off the field on third down. They rank 4th in opponent third down conversion just behind the Buckeyes, and I anticipate they'll try to make Julian Sayin uncomfortable early and often. He's not been under pressure much this season because of how dominant the Ohio State Oline is, but Indiana's focus from last year was to boost their aggressive play on the line of scrimmage. We saw it when they beat Oregon in Autzen and fought back to defeat Penn State, can they level it up another notch or two to beat the Buckeyes? Both teams are in no matter what, likely with a first round BYE. I would love to see Indiana pull the upset, but Ohio State has been too dominant this season. Until a team hangs around with them for 4 quarters, I'll take the Buckeyes to win the BIG 10 Championship. Ohio State defeats Indiana in Indianapolis 27-14. Don't sleep on this Hoosier team in the playoffs though!

Thank you for reading my Conference Championship Predictions and I hope you all enjoy a fantastic day of College Football!

#CFBKnowItAll

Alex Fernando