Welcome to Bowl Season football friends! Boise State and Washington started things off with the Bucked Up LA Bowl this past weekend, won 38-10 by the Huskies. Now we move into a full week of Bowl Games as we honor some great seasons for teams across the nation. It's the time of year where we learn about a number of random companies you never knew existed as they tie their sponsorship to a bowl game. This week's post will also include prediction on the FCS semi-final games (which unfortunately do not include either of my South Dakota teams this year), along with the first round of the College Football Playoffs at campus host sites. So many great games to get to, so here are all my predictions!
Current Bowl Record: 1-0
Bowl Game Predictions:
Troy vs Jacksonville State - IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl
Our first bowl game of the week gives us the Sun Belt and C-USA runner-ups with the Trojans and the Gamecocks. Both teams fell short in the conference title games, but have a lot to be proud of with 8-5 seasons for Gerad Parker (2nd Season) and Charles Kelly (1st Season). Troy was eaten alive on the line of scrimmage against James Madison, giving up 8 sacks and 14 tackles for loss to the Dukes. The Gamecocks average 2 sacks per game and 5.6 tackles for loss per game, so they could look to win the line of scrimmage early. Offensively for Jacksonville State, they'll be handing it off to Junior RB Cam Cook. He's racked up 1,659 yards with 16 TDs on the ground, averaging 5.6 yards per carry and has been held under 100 yards just twice this season. I think he'll rumble the Gamecocks to victory 30-21.
Old Dominion vs South Florida - StaffDNA Cure Bowl
The Monarchs finish 9-3 on the season with 2 of those losses being to Playoff teams in Indiana and James Madison. This team has put up points all year, ranking 29th in scoring offense with 32.7 points per game. South Florida was a heavy favorite to get a Playoff bid, but late season losses to Memphis and Navy knocked them out of contention. Head Coach Alex Golesh is off to Auburn, but former Buckeye star wideout and now star OC Brian Hartline will be the new man in charge following the Bowl Game. Unfortunately, neither team will have their star QBs as Colton Joseph (ODU) and Byrum Brown (USF) have both opted out of this game, with Joseph looking to transfer. Both players were the leading passers and rushers for their respective squads, so we'll get a good look at what both teams could look like next year with a lot of younger players in the mix. Old Dominion has other pieces of their offense still playing, so I'll give them the nod 27-20.
Louisiana vs Deleware - 68 Ventures Bowl
The Deleware Blue Hens are bowling for the first time in their FBS careers, heading to Mobile, Alabama to take on the Ragin' Cajuns. It's been an up and down season for both squads, but Louisiana ended the year with 4 straight wins to become bowl eligible at 6-6. Neither team has much to hold their hat on defensively, so we could see some points in this game. The Ragin' Cajuns have a strong run game with 3 different runners posting over 600 yards and multiple TDs on the ground. I'm hoping the Blue Hens put up a fight, but the ground game from the Ragin' Cajuns will be too much to handle. Louisiana 37, Delaware 24.
Missouri State vs Arkansas State - Xbox Bowl
One of the best bowl trophies/sponsors in the field, the Xbox Bowl features another FBS newcomer, Missouri State against Arkansas State. A bit of a boarder war is set for battle in Frisco, Texas as the Red Wolves and Bears look to finish the year strong. Missouri State lost their final two games of the season while Arkansas State pulled off a 1 point win on the road at Appalachian State to get to a bowl game. Bears' Head Coach Ryan Beard is off to Conway, South Carolina to coach the Chanticleers, so Arkansas State may have a leg up as the Bears will be without their head man. I've really enjoyed watching Missouri State throughout the season though, and I'll cheer them on for a bowl win. Everyone gets an Xbox, but only the Bears get the victory 23-20.
Kennesaw State vs Western Michigan - Myrtle Beach Bowl
The Owls have made an incredible turnaround following their first FBS season, going from 2-10 to 10-3 and winning the CUSA title. They'll match up against the Broncos from Kalamazoo who won the MAC Championship. I always love seeing the G6 conference winners paired up for a bowl game, and this should be an entertaining one. Both QBs bring a dual threat element for defenses to watch out for, but Amari Odom (Kennesaw State) favors the passing attack while Broc Lowry (Western Michigan) favors the ground game. Both players matchup very well statistically, even in the sack category with 17 each. If they can keep their jerseys clean in the backfield, we should see some impressive improvising for big plays. The Owls are more prone to bust one open, posting 65 plays for 20+ yards on the season. I'm excited to see these two offenses, but give me Kennesaw State for a big program win in the Myrtle Beach Bowl. Shoutout to Broc Lowry who has been fantastic in his Sophomore year, I look forward to watching him in the future. Owls 36, Broncos 28.
Memphis vs NC State - Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
The last of our "regular" bowl games for the week feature two spoiler teams who helped knock out others from playoff contention. NC State finished the year strong, knocking off Georgia Tech and winning 3 of their last 4. Memphis fell short after spoiling USF's season, losing 3 straight to Tulane, ECU and Navy. Their head man, Ryan Silverfield is headed to Arkansas, but NC State will be without star RB Hollywood Smothers. You never know who's going to play motivated in Bowl Games, but NC State usually shows up week in and week out, even with a down year. Wolfpack win 31-20.
FCS Playoff Predictions:
Illinois State at Villanova
The fighting Red Birds are on a historic run through the FCS Playoffs, having knocked out the #1 seeded Bison of NDSU on their home turf, and then following that up with a 42-31 win on the road at UC Davis (avenging last year's playoff loss). Illinois State is looking for their second ever National Championship appearance, having lost the other one to NDSU in 2014. Villanova comes into the semifinals after pulling back-to-back upsets of their own against #5 Lehigh and #4 Tarleton State. The Wildcats and the Red Birds have two fantastic QBs, so I expect a shootout. Starting with Villanova, Senior Pat McQuaid has 2,893 yards with 23 TDs and just 3 picks on the season. His go-to target is WR Luke Colella with 73 catches for 1,013 yards and 8 TDs. To anchor the ground game they rely on a trio of running backs who have amassed 2,322 total yards together with 22 touchdowns. Illinois State will certainly have their hands full, but look to give some firepower back the other way. Senior QB Tommy Rittenhouse has more than 3,000 yards to his name this season with 34 TDs and 11 picks. Victor Dawson grinds it out on the ground with 5.1 yards per carry and star wideout Daniel Sobkowicz is the redzone threat with 16 TD catches on the season. I would certainly recommend tuning into this game, the FCS playoffs have been electric. I'm going with the Red Birds in a magical season to beat Villanova 38-36.
Montana at Montana State - Brawl of the Wild (2.0 - Playoff Edition)
One of the best rivalries in all of college football is set to take place for the second time in a month as the Grizzlies and Bobcats meet for Brawl of the Wild, playoff edition. Despite over 100 years of history and 124 previous meetings, this will be the first in the postseason. These two FCS programs always get so close, but can't seem to close the deal on a championship. Montana State fell short last year by 3 to the Bison of NDSU and also lost in the championship in 2021 to NDSU. Montana was in the middle with a 2023 championship loss to my home state Jackrabbits of SDSU. Now, with their rival across from them, there's a spot waiting in the National Title game for only one. Starting with the Griz, this is one of the best offenses in all of football. Averaging 42.3 points per game, they're led by Sophomore QB Keal'l Ah Yat and Junior RB Eli Gillman. Ah Yat has nearly 4,000 passing yards in his first year as a starter, throwing for 32 touchdowns with just 8 picks and adding another 7 scores on the ground. Gillman is a workhorse in the backfield, currently sitting at 234 carries and averaging 6.1 yards each time he's handed the rock. It's hard to keep him out of the endzone with 22 total TDs this season. As for the Bobcats, they won the first meeting on the road, but now get to host this one at home. Their offense isn't far behind, averaging 37.4 points per game, but the defense is where they excel. Allowing just 17.6 points per game, they give up just 33% of third down conversions and are +16 in turnover margin. Montana is right behind with +14, but something the Bobcats love to do is let their defense put up points. They've got 4 defensive touchdowns this season, including a pick 6 against the Griz in the last meeting. This is a must watch if you're a college football fan, the rivalry and trophy make it all the better. I'm going to implement my rule for this one, you never want to play a team twice. Honoring the shared mascot of Standing Bear High School where I coach, let's go Griz! Montana defeats Montana State 27-24 in the Brawl of the Wild 2.0.
College Football Playoff 1st Round:
#9 Alabama at #8 Oklahoma
The first round of the CFB Playoffs features one of two matchups. Starting with two of college football's Blue Bloods, Alabama and Oklahoma meet in Norman for the right to move on. Oklahoma has had Bama's number since joining the SEC, winning both regular season matchups including one just over a month ago on November 15th. The Sooners' defense has been suffocating this year, racking up 41 sacks (tied for 1st), 115 tackles for loss (1st), and allowing just under 29% of opposing 3rd downs to be converted (6th). Alabama struggled late in the season and despite out-gaining Oklahoma in the last meeting, turnovers have been key factors in their losses. Many (including myself) are still a bit frustrated with Bama being let into the playoffs after getting stomped by Georgia in the SEC Championship Game, but we'll see if the couple weeks off have helped them get back to their form from mid-season. Senior RB Jam Miller is expected to play, but he's not been very effective. Alabama is ranked 117th in the nation for rush offense, which means winning this game will likely be put on the shoulders of Ty Simpson. He'll have to deal with OU's star defensive lineman, R Mason Thomas, who is back from injury and ready to demolish the backfield. If OU can force turnovers again, this game could go the way of the Sooners quickly. For Alabama, their defense should be well equipped to slow down Oklahoma. The Sooner's have struggled on offense since Mateer's hand injury in September, ranking 90th in the nation for total yards and 77th in points per game with 26.4. If Alabama can get out of the gates early, they should win this game. I'm hoping Boomer Sooner will take care of business yet again, but this is a very difficult task to beat a team twice in just over a month. Playing at home will help, but I fear my rule will take effect here, Bama wins 30-21.
#10 Miami at #7 Texas A&M
Arguably the most anticipated game of the 1st round, Miami and Texas A&M meet in College Station, TX needing to send a message. The Aggies struggled to end the season, needing a major comeback to beat South Carolina and being dismantled yet again by the Longhorns up in Austin. The Texas loss knocked them out of the SEC Championship Game for the second year in a row and poor offensive performances to finish the year have folks questioning this A&M squad. Miami jumps into the playoffs thanks to BYU losing to Texas Tech, but how legit are the 'Canes? Their two losses are a close one at home to Louisville and in overtime at SMU. They've rolled most everyone else and I'm very excited to see how this defense matches up against A&M's offense. The Aggies are very explosive, especially downfield with wideouts KC Concepcion and Mario Craver. Both average more than 15 yards per catch and are approaching 1,000 yard seasons. Miami and A&M have some of the best offensive and defensive lines, so whoever can get more push in the trenches, especially late in the game, will be taking this one. I've really enjoyed the job Mike Elko has done at A&M in the 2 years as Head Coach, and I think this team is very dangerous in the playoffs. They always seem to fall short in big moments, but that's the same story for Miami. Mario Cristobal has some very questionable clock and game management decisions, so I'll go with Texas A&M. Playing at home will be a big advantage for this game. Gig 'Em 31-24.
#11 Tulane at #6 Ole Miss
The second rematch of the first rounds brings us to the Grove in Oxford, Mississippi. Tulane is looking to make amends for earlier in the season where Ole Miss trounced them 45-10. The Green Wave could not get anything going on offense in that game, totaling just 282 yards. The Rebels exploded for 548 yards with Trinidad Chambliss having is break out game in place of the injured Austin Simmons. Chambliss accounted for more than 400 total yards himself with 2 TD passes. I expect the Rebels offense to be high-flying yet again, even without Lane Kiffin. That's the big question in this game as both teams have head coaches moving on, but one is already gone. John Sumrall will coach Tulane through the playoffs before fully taking over in Gainesville, but Kiffin is not part of the Ole Miss program any more. Tulane QB Jake Retzlaff looks much more comfortable in the offense than back on September 22, so look for the Green Wave offense to put up more of a fight. If a G6 team is going to pull an upset in the playoffs, this could be the best chance to do it. They're familiar with the opponent, the environment and have more of their weapons developed through the season. Tulane will need turnovers early, but I expect this one to be closer than last time. It's tough to win on the road though, and home field in the playoffs is a big advantage. Rebels win 38-20.
#12 James Madison at #5 Oregon
The last playoff game of the weekend features the Dukes of James Madison and the Ducks of Oregon. Separate of the game itself, one of the best things in College Football this past week or so has been the @JMUSportsNews on X trolling Oregon with very sarcastic content. Understanding their team is up against a tall task in Eugene, the account highlights how Oregon isn't prepared for a team like JMU and a number of other funny comments on various Oregon Football videos. If they can't win on the field, they've won in the socials. To the real game though, this should be a great opportunity for Oregon to make a statement as one of the forgotten teams in this playoff. Despite being the #1 seed last year, they had a much more difficult path highlighted by the Rose Bowl loss to Ohio State. The Ducks have been tough to beat at home, Indiana being the first team to do it since Washington in 2022. JMU brings a balanced offensive attack led by a power run game with QB Alonza Barnett III and RB Wayne Knight. Knight will look to break through this Oregon defense with his 6.6 yards per carry and 1,263 yards. He pull the pressure off of Barnett who has rushed for 14 TD of his own and does well to take care of the ball with just 8 picks this season. Oregon's defense ranks 20th against the run, so it will be interesting to see if JMU can find any space to move. Offensively for the Ducks, Dante Moore leads the 13th best offense in the nation. His ability to pick apart defenses will be tough for JMU to stop, especially with the run game he's supported by. The Ducks will be handing it off to a couple of different backs, Noah Whittington (774 yards, 6.9 average, 6 TDs) and Jordon Davison (535 yards, 6.1 average, 13 TDs). I expect the Ducks to put this one away early and hold down the JMU offense apart from a couple of big plays. JMU will be playing hard, but Oregon is still one of the best teams in the nation even if everyone else is forgetting that. Ducks over the Dukes 45-7.
Thanks for reading all my playoff predictions and enjoy a fantastic weekend of college football. More bowl picks on the way next week!
#CFBKnowItAll
Alex Fernando
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