Rivalry Week Results: 32 - 16 (66.7%)
Overall Season Results: 247 - 106 (70.0%)
Conference Championship Predictions:
Troy at #25 James Madison - Sun Belt Championship
The Dukes have a chance at the Playoffs being ranked #25 in the most recent CFP rankings, but first they need to win the Sun Belt. They've been dominating teams for most of the season, led by Junior QB Alonza Barnett III, James Madison has the 10th best scoring offense in the nation at 37.8 points per game. Barnett is flanked by a cast of talent, starting with Wayne Knight at Running Back. He's averaging 6.2 yards per carry and has over 1,000 yards on the season. The Trojans of Troy were a bit up and down to end the season, losing their first two games of November by a combined score of 56-10, but winning the last two weeks to put them into the Sun Belt Championship. Troy will hope the penalty problems pile up on JMU, with the Dukes averaging more than 7 penalties per game. Outside of that, this game tips heavily in favor of the Dukes, and I have them winning in style 45-17. After that JMU will be the biggest group of Duke Blue Devil fans in the nation.
Kennesaw State at Jacksonville State - C-USA Championship
An exciting rematch between the Owls and the Gamecocks is set for the CUSA Championship. Kennesaw State is having a historic season after going 2-10 last year. They're led by Sophomore QB Amari Odom who's accounted for 24 total TDs this season. He leads an offense that averages over 400 yards per game, and put up nearly 500 on the Gamecocks a few weeks ago. Jacksonville State forced 4 picks that game, ultimately leading to their 35-26 win. The Gamecocks are +9 on the season for turnover margin, and have 21 total takeaways this season. Junior RB Cam Cook helps turn those takeaways to scores, rushing for 15 TDs this season. I always say that you never want to play a team twice in College Football, so I'm invoking that rule and saying the Owls complete a fantastic season and win the Conference USA Championship! Kennesaw State gets revenge 31-27.
UNLV at Boise State - Mountain West Championship
For the third year in a row we have the Rebels and the Broncos battling for the Mountain West Championship. UNLV and Boise were put in after computer rankings decision following a 4-way tie atop the conference. I think New Mexico had a strong case, especially after beating SDSU and having a win over UNLV, but ultimately the tiebreaker did not go in their favor. For this game, we saw these team meet on the Blue Turf earlier this season, resulting in a Broncos victory 56-31. An impressive first season for the Rebels under Dan Mullen, going 10-2. Their defense has struggled a lot throughout the season, ranking 118th in total defense while also giving up more than 28 points per game. Offensively, Anthony Colandrea has been sensational, passing for more than 3,000 yards with 22 TDs and 8 picks. The former Virginia QB also added 556 yards and 8 TDs on the ground, earning him the Mountain West Offensive Player of the Year award. For Boise State, they get QB Maddux Madsen who they've been without since getting injured early in the Fresno game. He threw for 253 yards with 4 TDs and 1 pick against the Rebels earlier in the season, but being banged up may hinder his abilities in this game. UNLV was shut down in the second half by the Broncos in the first meeting, and they have not defeated Boise State since 1976. I'll stick to my rule of not wanting to play a team twice and I think Dan Mullen has some tricks up his sleeve for this game. Anthony Colandrea showcases that Mountain West Offensive MVP skill and UNL upsets Boise on the home turf 38-31 for a Mountain West Title.
#24 North Texas at #20 Tulane - American Championship
The Mean Green and the Green Wave clash in the Big Easy as they not only look to add a Conference Title to their season successes, but a spot in the College Football Playoff as well. Both head coaches, John Sumrall (Tulane) and Eric Morris (North Texas) have accepted new jobs at Florida and Oklahoma State respectively for next season. They've both agreed to coach their teams through the conference championship and playoffs pending the outcome of this game. Both could also be looking to bring some of their players with them after the season, but there's a lot at state in this game first. Both teams come in with dynamic offenses, led by sensational QBs. Starting with the Mean Green, Freshman Drew Mastemaker has taken the American by storm, throwing for 3,835 yards with 29 TDs and just 4 picks. North Texas has the nation's 2nd best passing attack while Tulane comes in with the 119th ranked pass defense. The Green Wave have a top notch offense of their own though, led by former BYU QB Jake Retzlaf. He's quickly become one of the American's best playmakers, accounting for more than 3,200 total yards and 28 TDs (14 pass and 14 rush). Both of these teams score at an extremely high rate, so this could be a high-scoring shootout. I really like what John Sumrall has done at Tulane and think he'll elevate the play at Florida quite quickly, but I've kept my eye on North Texas for a while. Eric Morris has developed a number of good QBs from that program including Chandler Morris who is playing for Virginia in the ACC Championship. North Texas's offense is one of the most exciting in the country, and I think they put up a few more points in this shoot out. They've won every road game on their schedule this season and will win one more to go to the playoffs 52-45. Mean Green beat the Green Wave for the American Championship.
Miami (OH) vs Western Michigan - MAC Championship
The Redhawks and Broncos meet at Ford Field in Detroit to battle out the MAC Championship. Miami (OH) somehow gets the tiebreaker despite losing to both Ohio and Toledo in the last month, both teams they were tied with. Regardless, they're playing in their third straight MAC Championship game while Western Michigan makes their first appearance since their historic 2016 season. The Broncos come in as the top team in the conference, ranking 2nd in points allowed with 18.7 allowed per game. They're led by Sophomore QB Broc Lowry, who's accounted for nearly 2,500 total yards and 21 touchdowns. Western Michigan did lose this matchup back on October 25th, but as we've highlighted with other matchups, you never want to play a team twice. Both teams force a lot of turnovers, so I'm looking at 3rd down conversions. Miami (OH) ranks 116th in conversion rate while Western Michigan ranks 49th. Give me the Broncos to win 27-21.
#11 BYU vs #4 Texas Tech - Big XII Championship
The Cougars need to win the rematch with Texas Tech if they want to be in the Playoffs. The Red Raiders demolished BYU in the first meeting, winning 29-7 in Lubbock. The Cougars turned the ball over 3 times in that game, but struggled to move against the Red Raider defense regardless. Texas Tech has been dominant all season and are looking for a 1st round BYE and their first ever Big XII title. Their defense is led by Heisman hopeful, Linebacker Jacob Rodriguez, who's racked up 101 total tackles on the season with 1 sack, 7 forced fumbles and 4 picks. He'll be attempting to slow down a BYU rushing attack that ranks 23rd in the nation with nearly 200 yards on the ground per game. Bear Bachmeier and LJ Martin are a load to bring down in the backfield, and both have 11 TDs each on the ground. Texas Tech's offense has been dynamic at times this season, but the Cougars forced them into 5 field goals last time out. If they can do that again and flip the turnover margin into their favor, this game could get interesting. Don't let the Cougars hang around late, because that would certainly give them an opportunity. I believe Texas Tech is one of the best teams in the nation, especially on defense. They've suffocated nearly every opponent this season. However, the Cougars aren't getting much credit from the CFP, they play very fast on defense and love to force teams off the field on 3rd down, ranking as the 16th best 3rd down defense in the nation. I'm picking this one purely for chaos and fun, but I'll say the Cougars play extra motivated after keeping Kalani Sitake. Cougars earn their spot in the College Football Playoffs 26-23 over Texas Tech.
#9 Alabama vs #3 Georgia - SEC Championship
The Bulldogs and Tide meet yet again in Atlanta after tiebreakers kept Ole Miss and Texas A&M out of the SEC Championship. Alabama won the regular season meeting, controlling the game all the way through for a 24-21 victory between the hedges. Georgia's offense has kicked into gear since then, scoring 35 points or more in 5 of their last 8. Neither team runs the ball well, but Georgia does have a mobile QB in Gunnar Stockton. RB Nate Frazier does have 809 yards to his name on the ground, but he could have some tough sledding against Bama's 36th ranked rush defense. Georgia ranks 6th in rush defense this season, so the Tide's rushing game could potentially be non-existent. This puts a lot of the game plan on Ty Simpson and the passing attack. I anticipate Alabama to be in third and medium to long all evening. This could give Georgia an opportunity to design some creative blitzes, but their pass rush has only netted 17 sacks on the season, ranking 117th in the nation. The big issue is that Kirby Smart always struggles against Alabama. As you can see, there are conflicting stats for either team, but the winner solidifies their spot in the Playoff while the loser may have another team jump them depending on the chaos that could occur on Championship Saturday. I'll go with my rule saying you don't want to play a team twice, mostly because Bama losing causes the CFP Committee more headaches. Bulldogs get revenge in the SEC Championship Game 33-30.
Duke vs #17 Virginia - ACC Championship
All eyes are on the ACC Championship in Charlotte as the 7-5 Duke Blue Devils find themselves playing for a conference title despite going 0-2 against the top 5 teams in the conference. The 10-2 Miami Hurricanes find themselves sitting at home, waiting for chaos because of the tiebreakers. Virginia has been one of the few consistencies of the ACC this season, but they've had stumbles of their own. Wake Forrest pulled the upset when QB Chandler Morris got hurt, but the Cavs offense is one of the best when Morris is healthy. He's thrown for nearly 2,600 yards with 14 TDs and 7 picks on the season. His secret weapon is Senior RB J'Mari Taylor, and if you haven't watched him play yet, you're in for a treat tonight. I think Taylor is one of the most underrated backs in the nation, contributing in both the ground attack and air raid. He's racked up 997 yards with 14 TDs on the ground, while adding another 219 yards through the air. The transfer from North Carolina Central has never fumbled in his career and loves to run through contact. If Duke wants to pull the upset, they need to force turnovers early and get Darian Mensah extra opportunities to score. Mensah's stats are fantastic in his first season with Duke, throwing for 3,450 yards with 28 TDs and just 4 picks. He's been sacked 24 times this season, so look for Virginia to come after him. They held the Blue Devils to 255 total yards and racked up 4 sacks with 8 tackles for loss just a couple of weeks ago, have things changed since then? Following my rule would cause chaos and potentially send JMU to the College Football Playoff. I would love that, but I think Virginia is a fun team to have in the field, and they've played the most consistent ball in the ACC this season. They love winning close games, and this one should be closer than last time, but give me the Cavs to win the ACC 37-28.
#1 Ohio State vs #2 Indiana - BIG 10 Championship
Other than a top seed and conference bragging rights, there isn't too much on the line here when you look at the big picture. However, Indiana is seeking their first ever conference title and looking to avenge one of the two losses Curt Cignetti has suffered at Indiana. They Buckeyes are looking to repeat their National Championship run of last year, but have the opportunity to win the BIG 10 this year after sitting out last season due to the Michigan loss. The Buckeyes are lead by stars all over the field, and QB Julian Sayin has played very well in his first year as a starter. He's thrown for over 3,000 yards with 30 TDs and just 5 picks. With weapons like Carnell Tate and Jeremiah Smith, it's not hard to rack up those yards, but he makes great decisions with his reads and rarely puts the ball in danger. His top Heisman competition is across the field as Fernando Mendoza has really leveled up this Hoosier offense. Mendoza transferred from Cal and has dominated the BIG 10 this season, accounting for over 3,000 total yards of offense with 38 touchdowns and 5 picks on his own. Defense is the big story in this game and how they will handle these QBs. Ohio State has suffocated every single opponent this year, not allowing a single opponent to score more than 16 on the year. Indiana's defense has been leaky at times, but no matter what happens, they get off the field on third down. They rank 4th in opponent third down conversion just behind the Buckeyes, and I anticipate they'll try to make Julian Sayin uncomfortable early and often. He's not been under pressure much this season because of how dominant the Ohio State Oline is, but Indiana's focus from last year was to boost their aggressive play on the line of scrimmage. We saw it when they beat Oregon in Autzen and fought back to defeat Penn State, can they level it up another notch or two to beat the Buckeyes? Both teams are in no matter what, likely with a first round BYE. I would love to see Indiana pull the upset, but Ohio State has been too dominant this season. Until a team hangs around with them for 4 quarters, I'll take the Buckeyes to win the BIG 10 Championship. Ohio State defeats Indiana in Indianapolis 27-14. Don't sleep on this Hoosier team in the playoffs though!
Thank you for reading my Conference Championship Predictions and I hope you all enjoy a fantastic day of College Football!
#CFBKnowItAll
Alex Fernando
No comments:
Post a Comment