Hey everyone, I hope you enjoyed another great weekend of College Football! There were some great games this weekend, and I was very impressed by a couple performances, most notably Washington's thrashing of the Ducks. This post is going to focus on my opinions on who the favorites are in each of the Power 5 Conferences half way through the season. My thoughts on a few teams have changed, so please enjoy, and let me know what you think!
The ACC
At the beginning of the season, I picked North Carolina and Clemson to square off for a re-match in the ACC championship. The Tar Heels took a big hit this past weekend after being trashed by Virginia Tech (2-0 in ACC play) 34-3. Miami also fell back in the Coastal division as FSU knocked them from the ranks of the "unbeatens" after blocking the game tying PAT with only a few minutes left in the game. The next 9 days will tell us a lot about the Coastal division, because Miami plays UNC on the 15th, then quickly turns around and travels to Blacksburg, VA 5 days later on the 20th. If they come out of those games 2-0, they will have knocked down their biggest competition in the Coastal Division. I see it as a 3-way race between the Hurricanes, Tar Heels, and Hokies. All three teams have just as much chance to beat the others, but if Virginia Tech can keep up their recent defensive success, I'm going to give them the edge. Plus they have Miami at home, and on a short week, so that is a huge advantage.
On the Atlantic side, Clemson has the top spot, and since they've already downed the Cardinals from Louisville, they have a good chance at holding out to win the division. The Tigers have a tough road challenge in a few weeks down to Tallahassee, but the Seminoles have struggled in big games so far this year, and were demolished by Lamar Jackson, so I doubt Deshaun Watson will be much better to them. A couple of sneaky teams wait in November though; Pitt has played teams close all season long, winning and losing a couple, and you never want to underestimate the rivalry game with the Gamecocks. I've still got Clemson winning the Atlantic Division, and the overall ACC.
The Big XII
This conference is an absolute mess. We have a little better idea after the Red River Rivalry victory by the Sooners, but I still don't know for sure who will come out of this conference as the victor. I said it before the season, and I'll say it again; there will be NO Big XII team in the College Football Playoff this season. I don't think there is a strong enough team in the Big XII, and it seems like they're all going to cannibalize each other fighting for the Conference Title. I picked the Sooners to own the Big XII at the beginning of the season, and they're tied for the conference lead at 2-0 with Baylor. The Bears have yet to play much competition, and their game against the Sooners is in Norman, so I don't think they will stay unbeaten for long. They team that keeps winning games but not many people are talking about though, is West Virginia. Skyler Howard and Shelton Gibson are leading one of the best passing attacks in the nation, averaging 318 yards per game. The Mountaineers have played a lot of close games, but the key is that they are winning those close games. I think they may be a team to watch the rest of the season, especially because they get TCU, Oklahoma and Baylor in Morgantown. I'll give the edge to the Sooners right now, but that may change by the time we get to November. Keep your eye on the Mountaineers.
The PAC-12
The dark horse has jumped into the spot light and has taken the College Football world by storm. I picked Stanford and UCLA, but I did express concern about Washington's ability to compete. Well I think it's safe to say that they really came to compete this year. The Huskies have a top 10 scoring offense (averaging 49.5 points per game) and a top 10 scoring defense (giving up only 14.2 points per game). Their last two weeks have been victories by a combined score of 114-27 against two of the PAC-12 powerhouses in Stanford and Oregon. There are still a lot of games left in the season, but if the Huskies keep playing at this level, they will be very tough to stop. A tricky road game to Salt Lake City sits a few weeks away, but other than that I don't see Washington having many issues until the Apple Cup against their rivals Washington State. Speaking of Wazzu, the Cougars are also unbeaten in conference play, but are not nearly as complete as the Huskies.
Down in the southern half of the conference, some puzzling teams are all tied atop the division. Arizona State, Utah and Colorado are all sitting at 2-1, and looking to win the South Division crown. All have dynamic offenses, but the back half of the schedules pose lots of different threats. All three still have to play each other, so we'll find out who can outlast in the South. I'm giving the edge to the Utes right now, because if they can handle a road trip to UCLA in a couple weeks, they could knock the Bruins out of contention. They have a tough home match-up with Washington, and have to travel to both ASU and Colorado, but they are probably the most consistent team of the three leaders. Colorado is my dark horse down South though. They stumbled last week against the Trojans, but can rebound against the Sun Devils this week and avoid Washington out of the North. Having ASU, UCLA, Wazzu and Utah all come to Boulder will be an advantage too, so watch out for the Buffs.
The SEC
The SEC looks to be a lock in the East, even with Tennessee stumbling this past weekend. Florida poses a threat because they avoid the Tide and A&M from the West, and no one knows if their game with LSU will be played or not at this point. Tennessee has another tough test with Bama coming up to Knoxville this Saturday, but after that they shouldn't have too many games to worry about. If they do fall to the Tide, Florida will have the lead in the conference, but the Vols have the head to head win, so if Florida drops one (rivalry game with Georgia or a trip to Arkansas) then Tennessee will be back in the driver seat.
On the West side, the Tide look to keep rolling, but the 4 week stretch of at Tennessee, home against A&M, BYE and then at LSU does not look friendly. The Aggies are undefeated, and pose the biggest threat to Alabama to take away the West Division crown. No matter what happens in Knoxville this week, all eyes will be focused on Tuscaloosa, AL next week as the Aggies come to Bryant-Denny Stadium looking for an upset. I'm still leaning towards Alabama, because it's nearly impossible to bet against them, but they will be truly tested over the next few weeks, and this will show who is the real powerhouse in the West. If Bama wins the West, they'll win the entire SEC. If Texas A&M win the West, a rematch with Tennessee could be dangerous.
The BIG 10
We'll start in the East because there is no way to ignore the dominance that has been shown by both Ohio State and Michigan. Both the Buckeyes and Wolverines have top 5 scoring offenses and defenses, causing all sorts of headaches for teams. The Wolverines got over the Wisconsin hurdle, and have a fairly manageable schedule until their showdown in Columbus. Road trips to East Lansing and Iowa City could be tricky, but probably won't play much of a factor. For the Buckeyes, the bulk of their schedule is just beginning. Their next 4 weeks pose a number of different threats as their schedule goes like this: at Wisconsin, at Penn State, home for a tricky Northwestern team, and then home again against the Huskers. Wisconsin and Nebraska are going to cause the most issues, but Penn State and Northwestern are never teams to overlook. The showdown in Madison will tell us a lot moving forward, especially because the Buckeyes didn't look the best (only 93 yards passing) against Indiana last week. Both Ohio State and Michigan look like they could hang with anyone in the nation, but I'll stick with the Buckeyes for now since the Big Game is in Columbus. You could honestly toss a coin on the East Division though.
Moving over to the West, a few teams still have a shot, but it will likely come down to Nebraska and Wisconsin. Iowa has fallen back to Earth and down into the pit of mediocrity where they kinda belong in my opinion (sorry, gotta bash the rivals), leading me to believe that they will not win either of their games against the Badgers or the Wolverines. However, both those games (and the Huskers') are in Iowa City, so you never really know. Back to the teams of Red & White, Wisconsin has really surprised me this year. I never have a problem trusting their strength on defense, but they have been incredible this season. They are only giving up 12.2 points per game, and have absolutely suffocated any and every run game that they have faced. However, with all that being said, I still think that thier schedule is a little too stacked for them to have a clean enough record to win the West Division. They have the potential to beat the Buckeyes this weekend, but if they don't, they will fall to 2-2 in the conference with quite a bit of ground to make up. So, with Iowa and Wisconsin's schedules consuming their conference records, Nebraska still remains my favorite (I have un-biased reasons coming up). The Huskers have a favorable schedule, and although they have to travel to both Wisconsin and Ohio State, the brutality of their schedules could provide an advantage for the Huskers. The Badgers will becoming off of a two week stretch of Ohio State, and then an away game at their rival Iowa. I already talked about Ohio State's schedule above, so look for the wear and tear to play a factor. Nebraska can still win the West without beating Wisconsin, but if the Huskers can get the head to head, they will have no problem finishing out their schedule for the West Division crown. I'm still taking my Huskers out West in the BIG 10!
I hope you all enjoyed my conference update! Please let me know if you have any teams you'd like me to analyze or something else you'd like to see on my blog! Don't forget to sign your email up to receive notifications for all my posts. Thanks for reading and GO BIG RED!!
#CollegeFootballKnowItAll
Alex Fernando
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