Hey everyone, we've got a big weekend of College Football coming up, so I hope you're ready to watch all the big games! A couple of unbeaten teams have some tough road games this Saturday, including my Huskers. So let's get to my game picks, enjoy!
#10 West Virginia at Oklahoma State
The Big XII is starting to shake out and both of these teams look to stay alive in the Conference Title race. The Cowboys are coming off 3 straight conference wins, but 2 of those were against Kansas and Iowa State, so it's hard to peg them as one of the top contenders in the conference. West Virginia has been very impressive this season, especially since their last two games have been against two of the highest scoring teams in the nation, and they gave up a combined 27 points between them. The Mountaineers defense has been very impressive this season, and the past couple weeks were the perfect examples. They held Texas Tech (a team that had previously scored 50+ in 9 straight games at home) to 17, and stuffed the Horned Frogs to just 10 points last week. On the other side of the ball, Skylar Howard is completing 66.5% of his passes and has not thrown a pick in his past two games. OSU will have their hands full since they give up nearly 450 yards per game and over 27 points per game. This has some upset possibility being in Stillwater, but I think the Mountaineers will take care of business in this one. West Virginia 34, Oklahoma State 20.
#2 Michigan at Michigan State (Battle for the Paul Bunyan Trophy)
The "Big Brother-Little Brother" fight doesn't have quite as much hype behind it as last year's thriller, but never underestimate the atmosphere of a rivalry game, especially an in-state one! Michigan has impressed everyone in football this year with crushing of nearly everyone on their schedule. Michigan State has puzzled everyone in football this year with their 5 straight losses and 0-4 record in BIG 10 play. Nonetheless, this game always has potential to be a classic. The Wolverines are looking to keep their undefeated season alive while Michigan State just wants a chance to go bowling this year. All the numbers point to Michigan steamrolling their rivals, but rivalries can be interesting. The Spartans have won 7 of the last 8 meetings, and getting to play at home this year could help them out a bit. With all that being said I'm going with the Wolverines. Michigan's defense is far too strong for this years Spartan team to cause any major headaches, and Michigan State has already given up 54 at home to Northwestern, so they may be in for a rough day. The Wolverines' run game will control the line of scrimmage, and I would expect a couple turnovers from the defense. Michigan crushes the "little brother" 42-16.
#14 Florida vs. Georgia
A big rivalry in the SEC East Division takes place in Jacksonville today, between the Gators and the Dawgs. Florida has looked impressive so far this season, only losing to Tennessee, but they also haven't played the heaviest of competition thus far. Their defense has impressive numbers, giving up only 252 yards and 12 points on average per game. Georgia has had a very difficult time moving the ball this season, and only scores an average of 25 points per game. Jacob Eason has been improving throughout the year, but the Gators' top notch secondary is the last thing he needs to help his confidence. I would expect Georgia to try and establish the run game early on, but if they fall behind, they'll have to try airing it out. Once that happens, I think the Gators' defense takes over the game and brings home the W. Florida wins this rivalry match-up 31-26.
#8 Baylor at Texas
This is an interesting rivalry in the Big XII because Baylor starts to play some of the stronger teams in the conference, and Texas is looking to get back on track after losing 4 of their last 5 games. This is my upset pick of the week. I'm going to go with Texas (I really hate saying that) because I think Baylor is weaker than what they have shown. Yes, they're 6-0, but their toughest game has been Oklahoma State at home, and their defense has struggled all year. The same can be said for Texas, but let's be honest, no one (apart from WVU thus far) has defense in the Big XII. I expect a shootout in this one, but Charlie Strong gets his statement win and knocks off Baylor. The Bears are capable of beating Texas in Austin, but I don't think they'll be ready for this game. Longhorns 44, Bears 38.
Northwestern at #6 Ohio State
The second of the three major BIG 10 games this weekend takes place in Columbus, OH. Just a week removed from Penn State's epic upset on the Buckeyes, they return home and are probably looking for blood against the surging Wildcats. Ohio State is favored to win by 27 points right now, and I'm sure Urban will have them playing better than last week. Don't sleep on Northwestern though. They've risen to second place in the BIG 10 West division and have won their last three games, two of which were on the road in Iowa City and East Lansing. Pat Fitzgerald is one of my favorite coaches, and he's always going to give the Wildcats a chance to win. My key in this game is Northwestern QB, Clayton Thorson. We all know JT Barrett is going to score at some point, so the big question is if Thorson will score too. Thorson's leadership has been the focal point of their win streak, and if he can continue to move the ball on offense and keep pace with Ohio State's scoring, Northwestern could hang around. As fun as this upset would be, I don't think it will happen in the Horseshoe, but watch out for next year in Evanston, you never know! Look for Northwestern's defense to imitate a lot of blitzes that Penn State used last week. The Nittany Lions got 6 sacks on the Buckeye who had only given up 5 all season going into that game. I'm going with the Buckeyes because I think their defense will be too overpowering on the Wildcats, but the 27 point spread is too much. Northwestern cuts into that, making it a closer game. Buckeyes 38, Wildcats 21.
#4 Washington at #17 Utah
Gameday traveled to Salt Lake City for the big showdown in the Pac-12. The Huskies have been one of the bigger surprises this season, but it's worth noting that some of the normal powerhouse teams of the conference have struggled this year (Oregon 2-5, Stanford 2-3). However, Washington has been dominating their opponents in every facet of the game, so look for a good one tonight. Utah is tough to play at home, losing only 1 home game over the past two seasons. Their run game has picked back up over the past two weeks as Senior RB Joe Williams has run for 511 yards and 5 TDs in their last two games. Washington only gives up an average of 145 yards on the ground per game, while Utah averages 215. Clock management will be key for the Utes if they want to win, so establishing their rushing attack and keeping the ball away from Jake Browning should be the main focus. Washington's defense has been one of the best in the nation, only giving up 14.6 points per game, while their offense scores 48.3. The spread on this game is the Huskies by 11, but I'm not sure if Utah will hang around quite that long. Junior QB Troy Williams for the Utes is only completing 56% of his passes and has thrown 5 picks and been sacked 14 times this year already. Washington's defense will be coming after him today, and if he turns the ball over, the Huskies will start to run away with it. I expect this one to be fairly close, but Washington pulls away in the end. Huskies 38, Utes 21.
#3 Clemson at #12 Florida State
The big game in the ACC this week takes place down in Tallahassee, FL. The Tigers take on the Seminoles in a game that usually decides the who places in the ACC Championship. This year, FSU is a couple games back, but would love nothing more than to ruin Clemson's season and get back into some big bowl consideration. Clemson's defense has been a steady strength this year, stepping up at big parts of the game and holding strong. Their offense however has had issues. They've turned the ball over quite a bit this season, and have made a lot of games very close. The Tigers have still come out on top, but you can only look over the edge of a cliff so many times before falling off. Florida State looks to help Clemson out with a little push on their way to an upset. They have found a balance on offense over the past couple weeks averaging 271 through the air and 213 on the ground. Both teams score around 35 points per game and have a number of play makers on offense. FSU's defense will be the key factor in this game, because Deshaun Watson could have his own highlight reel in this one. Apart from their blowout loss to Louisville early in the year, the Seminoles have kept every game close, and I think the 4 point spread is fairly accurate. Clemson loses at some point this season, but not today. The Tigers defense is too much for young Deondre Francois and they come away with the victory. Look for FSU RB Dalvin Cook to have a lot of touches, but not a lot of yards. I think he'll be running into a wall for most of the game. Tigers win it 30-24.
#7 Nebraska at #11 Wisconsin (Battle for the Freedom Trophy)
The final BIG 10 showdown of the day takes place up in Mad-town as the Huskers face off with the rival Badgers. Nebraska has not gotten much love from the media for their undefeated season thus far, but this is the statement game they were looking for. A road game to one of the toughest venues in the nation against one of the better teams in the nation could open some eyes. Everyone is expecting Wisconsin to win and use their dominant defense to shut down a dynamic offense that usually shuts itself down for a few quarters. The over/under is 43 points, which is really puzzling to me because this is going to be a close, low scoring game. Starting with Wisconsin, their offense only scores 24 points per game on average, and their defense only gives up 14. Nebraska scores an average of 34 and holds teams to an average of 17. If the defenses play like they have been, neither team will go over 30 points. Wisconsin's ground game will be something to watch as it has been picking up over the past couple games with Corey Clement. They average 173 yards on the ground per game, but the Blackshirts only give up 124 yards rushing per game. Look for Wisconsin to use their jet sweep motion quite a bit, because that usually causes Nebraska problems. The Linebackers and secondary will have to be ready to hold the edge.
For the Huskers the big key to victory is again Senior QB Tommy Armstrong. However, my second key of the day is the O-line for Nebraska. We'll get to Tommy in a minute, but the offensive line may be one of the biggest factors in this game. Wisconsin's front seven is one of the most intimidating in the nation. They are consistently reeking havoc on opposing backfields and QBs. Nebraska's O-line has been banged up this year and has not been able to move opposing defenses until the 4th Quarter. Not the worst thing, but when you can't move the ball during the 2nd and 3rd quarters, that opens the door for a lot of teams. The "Pipeline" will have to play very well and protect Tommy if the Huskers want to win this game. Switching over to Tommy, we need the good one. This is his chance to prove that he's the leader this team is centered around, and he will have to be nearly perfect to do so. With the strength of the Badgers' defense, he may not have much of a ground game to rely on every series, so his arm will be a factor. If Nebraska can keep 3rd down manageable and not force deep throws from Armstrong, they will be able to move the ball and keep Wisconsin on their toes. Look for his scrambling to be used a lot today, as I expect a lot of pressure from different blitz packages. The best thing about playing Wisconsin is that you do not need to score many points to win. It's very very difficult to score those points, but if Nebraska is able to score just 3 times (at least 2 TDs) then they will win. Wisconsin has trouble moving the ball and the Blackshirts have one of the better (not talked about) defenses in the nation. They hold teams to only 17 points per game, and have 13 interceptions on the year. Badger QB Alex Hornibrook will have his hands full with my man Freedom coming after him and #LockDownU looking for more picks. I believe in my Huskers, and I think Tommy plays well enough for them to win. Huskers take this game 21-16.
I hope you all enjoyed my picks and GO BIG RED! Have a great Saturday of Football.
#CollegeFootballKnowItAll
Alex Fernando
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