Hey everyone! I hope you've all had a great week and are ready for more football! My Huskers are on a much needed BYE week, but we still have a great slate of games to watch, including a couple of important match-ups down in the SEC. There are also a number of rivalry games this weekend, so let's get to the picks! Enjoy!
Iowa at Minnesota (Battle for the Floyd of Rosedale)
For those of you outside of the BIG 10, this is a great rivalry between the two schools, especially because the prize is a 98 lbs. bronze Pig! These two BIG 10 rivals square off in Minneapolis at 11 am on Saturday, and both are looking to get back on track after tough losses last week. The Gophers lost a close game to Penn State, and Iowa was once again stunned at home by a team they probably should have beaten in Northwestern. Neither team has looked very impressive through the first five weeks, especially when you consider the competition they have played. Iowa's consistency has dropped drastically from a year ago, and it starts up front with the offensive line. So far this season, Senior QB CJ Bethard has been sacked 14 times through only 5 games. Last year Iowa only gave up 29 sacks total throughout the season. Plus, their run game has been very lack-luster. Last year, the Hawkeyes were averaging over 180 yards rushing per game, this year, that average has dropped to just over 140. Plus, their average Time of Possession is down by over 2 minutes from last season. Minnesota on the other hand has increased their TOP average from last year by nearly 3 minutes. The Gophers are also averaging 228 on the ground per game and 211 through the air. I expect those numbers to drop as Iowa is probably the best defense they've faced so far this year, but the Hawkeyes are still giving up over 180 yards on average in each category. It's always hard to pick on a rivalry game, especially with both teams looking to get back on track in conference play, but I'm going with the home team in this one. I'm betting on a little bit closer of a game, but I think that if Minnesota can keep Iowa's run game contained, and bump up their TOP, they can come away with the victory. Plus the home team has won this game each time over the past 3 years, so look for the crowd to be a factor. Gophers win the Pig 28-23.
Maryland at Penn State
Another chapter in this hated rivalry is set to take place out in Happy Valley this weekend. Penn State may hold the all time series with an impressive 36-2-1 stat line, but since the Terps have joined the BIG 10, two 1-point games have decided the victor over the past couple years. Maryland has looked impressive so far against their lesser opponents this year, averaging over 43 points per game while giving up only 14, but once again, they have yet to face a quality opponent. Penn State has been a different story since they have played some tougher opponents. They have had a lot of close games apart from their blowout loss to the Wolverines, and are coming off of an Overtime thriller with the Gophers. I expect "Linebacker U" to bring the Terps' offense down a couple pegs to make this a little closer game. Oddly enough, the big thing to watch in this game is Maryland's ground attack. They are averaging 300 yards rushing per game, and the Nittany Lions are giving up an average of 216 yards rushing per game. Plus the Terps have an average TOP nearly 4 minutes ahead of the Nittany Lions. Penn State's offense has really struggled, and although they average 256 yards passing per game, Sophomore QB Trace McSorley is only completing 58.9% of his passes and has a 6:3 TD to Interception ratio. One big thing Penn State has going for them is special teams, because they have probably the most formidable kicker in the history of football! I have never seen a kicker as determined to make the tackle as the 258 lbs. Joey Julius is. His hits on kickoffs are some of my favorite highlights to watch, so Maryland better think twice before they try to return any kicks! Once again, rivalry games are hard to peg, but I think Maryland's offense might be too much for Penn State. We'll see if the Terps rise to the challenge against what is probably their strongest opponent so far this season. I'll go with Maryland in a 31-27 victory.
Texas vs. #20 Oklahoma (Red River Rivalry)
Since they shocked the Irish in the opening weekend, Texas (and Notre Dame) have more or less fallen off the map. They've lost back to back games to Cal and Oklahoma State, even with a BYE week in between. Oklahoma is trying to salvage the rest of their season after starting 1-2 with losses to Houston and Ohio State. Nationally, this game does not carry as much weight as it usually does, but for the Big XII Conference, this is a big one. Baylor and West Virginia are leading the conference right now, but there's no clear favorite in my opinion. The Big XII is extremely wide open, but Texas is a step behind since they have dropped 1 conference game already. OU pulled out a key win against the Horned Frogs last week, giving them a step up. Looking into the Red River Rivalry, I don't know where to start. Both teams move the ball well and have good play-makers on offense, but both teams cannot stop anyone on defense. Kind of typical for Big XII teams, but when both teams give up nearly 430 yards and over 35 points per game, you just know it's going to be a shootout. That's when you go look at the QBs. Texas is working with a Freshman under center, while occasionally bringing in the big Senior Tyrone Swoopes to run the ball (he has 5 rushing TDs so far this season). Oklahoma is a little more set at the QB spot as Baker Mayfield looks continue his impressive start to the season where he's already responsible for 11 touchdowns (9 passing & 2 rushing). Anyone could figure out that OU has the advantage when looking at the QB position, and if I were in a shootout, I would want Mayfield over Buechele. I'll go with the Sooners in a high-scoring, high-energy, high-stakes game down south. Oklahoma 48, Texas 35.
#25 Virginia Tech at #17 North Carolina
One of two top 25 match-ups in the ACC this weekend, the Hokies travel to Chapel Hill to take on the red hot Tar Heels. UNC have won 4 straight since their opening week loss to Georgia, including two close, 4th quarter, game winning drives to beat Pitt and Florida State. Junior QB Mitch Trubisky has been incredible so far this season, completing 76% of his passes, and posting a 13:0 TD to Interception ratio. Virginia Tech's numbers on defense look impressive, but they haven't played much competition outside of Tennessee, and they gave up quite a few yards and 45 points in that game. If this one is going to be close, it's going to be a shootout. Both teams are averaging 40 points per game, and UNC's defense has given up quite a few yards, especially on the ground. This plays well for the Hokies since they are averaging nearly 200 on the ground per game, and the Tar Heels give up an average of 236. I think UNC will win this one, mostly because of Trubisky. There are not many QBs playing at his level, and I don't think Virginia Tech's defense will be able to slow him down. This one will have quite a few points though! Tar Heels 48, Hokies 31.
Indiana at #2 Ohio State
Last year, this was one of my big upset picks, and the Buckeyes came away with a narrow 34-27 victory late in the 4th. That was out in Bloomington, but this year, it's in the Horseshoe. Indiana is playing at a much better level than previous years, especially on the defensive side of the ball. New Defensive Coordinator Tom Allen has the Hoosier defense posting some impressive numbers. They are only giving up 140 yards on the ground per game, which has dropped drastically from the nearly 200 they gave up a year ago. Again, there's still a lot of growth to be had if Indiana is ever going to compete in the BIG 10, but they can definitely cause some headaches. This could be a bit of a trap game for the Buckeyes as they have a big road trip to the Badgers lined up for next week, so they may overlook this one a bit. I don't think this will be the upset year for Indiana, but I think they'll be a little closer than the 28 point spread. JT Barrett and company shouldn't have many issues scoring points, but Ohio State's young defense will be tested with another good offensive attack. I'm sticking with the Buckeyes, 49-28.
#9 Tennessee at #8 Texas A&M
The Vols travel to College Station to take on the Aggies, hoping to continue their magical season of 4th quarter comebacks. However, one key member of their offense will be missing for this game, and that is Junior RB Jalen Hurd. This could slow down the Vols productivity on offense, as they are averaging nearly 175 yards rushing per game. Without Hurd, Joshua Dobbs will have to step up and make some big plays. It's hard to pick against Tennessee with all of their recent success, and it makes it even harder when we don't know if Myles Garrett will be playing for the Aggies. Garrett is one of the best pass rushers in the country, and A&M are also missing an offensive lineman and two big receivers. A&M's injuries put the weight on Trevor Knight's shoulders, making a great battle between two dynamic, dual-threat QBs. Both offenses have a lot of weapons, but revolve on the QB play. Both QBs are experienced, and have played in a few big games. It's hard to pick on a game where the teams are so evenly matched, and evenly injured, but I'm going with Tennessee in some more 4th Quarter magic. Vols 38-35.
#21 Colorado at USC
This is an interesting game because I don't think anyone would ever believed that the Buffaloes would be ranked walking into a match-up with the Trojans. Nonetheless, Colorado is ranked, and honestly (really dislike saying this) they are playing some really good football. They nearly upset the Trojans last year, and they have proven this year that they are not the normal pushover people think of them as. The Buffs are averaging over 530 yards per game and 43.2 points per game on offense. Defensively, they are giving up under 150 yards both passing and rushing. Now the Trojans have been struggling, but they are no pushover either. They have struggled to produce many points, but have the talent to put up big numbers. They have a lot of talented receivers, so look for them to test Colorado deep. The only loss Colorado has this season, is to the very talented, very powerful Michigan Wolverines. USC's talent pool is much like that of the Maize and Blue, so the Buffs will have to be sharp if they want to come out of L.A. with an upset. I think that Colorado's QB Sefo Liufau is the difference in this game, because Jalen Hurts ran for two TDs against them in the opener. Sefo is very good once he gets out of the pocket, and when passing, doesn't make many bad choices (71.1% completion rating and 0 interceptions so far this season). If he can go full speed for this game, I think Colorado comes away with the W. Buffalo 35, Trojans 23.
#5 Washington at Oregon
Washington really impressed me last week by absolutely demolishing Stanford. Oregon has really fallen off after losing 3 in a row. However, this is an interesting rivalry game in the PAC-12 North because Oregon has won 12 straight games over the Huskies. Autzen Stadium is never an easy place to play, and you can never hold down the Ducks for long. I expect Oregon's defense to be a focal point in this game, because they have not done much to hinder opposing offenses yet this year. Jake Browning has the Husky offense humming, and I think he'll have a field day down in Eugene. Look for the Ducks to be bothersome early on, but they won't be able to get Freeman going against Washington's strong front seven, and that forces the game to be won by Dakota Prukop's arm. Washington flips the script and wins a big rivalry game up in the Pacific Northwest. Huskies 40, Ducks 20.
#1 Alabama at #16 Arkansas
This game will be a classic slug match between two power SEC teams. The Hogs are on the rise, only dropping one to the Aggies so far this year, and their offense has been hitting on all cylinders. Junior QB Austin Allen has been very impressive this season, completing nearly 68% of his passes and posting an impressive 12:2 TD to Interception ratio. Usually the Razorbacks are known for their power run game, but they're only averaging 197 on the ground per game compared to their nearly 250 yards passing. Bama's defense is never easy to move the ball on, as they only allow 69 yards rushing per game and only give up an average of 13 points. On offense for the Tide, star Freshman QB Jalen Hurts will cause lots of headaches for Arkansas' defense. Hurts has thrown for nearly 1000 yards already, and has rushed for nearly 300 while posting up 10 total TDs. Since the Razorbacks had a tough time with Trevor Knight a couple of weeks ago, look for Hurts to have a big game. Hogs keep it close for a while, but the Tide Rolls with a 35-24 victory. This game has upset potential though being away from Bryant-Denny Stadium.
#23 Florida State at #10 Miami
Arch rivals in the ACC showdown as Hurricane Matthew dies down in South Beach. It will be hard to focus on a football game with all of the outside issues going on, and I definitely send prayers to all those affected by the devastating storm. Looking at the football game, this will be a tough one to pick. Miami has looked impressive through their 4-0 start, but they have yet to play very tough competition. The Seminoles have struggled this season, dropping two big games to Louisville and UNC, falling to 0-2 in the conference. Both offenses are putting up impressive numbers, including an average of over 40 points per game. FSU is averaging 508 yards per game and Miami is averaging 474 in addition to all the points. The big issues have been on defense since the 'Noles are giving up over 35 points per game and nearly 440 yards per game. I don't think they'll be able to stop the Hurricane's offense, and with the recent weather, it could be tough to score points. I was expecting a shoot out, but again the weather may cause some issues. I'm still not entirely convinced on Miami, but I think Brad Kaaya's experience will allow him to outplay Deondre Francois (who is still having an impressive Freshman year). I'll stick with the Hurricanes to upset their rivals in a close one. Miami 31, FSU 30.
I hope you all enjoyed my picks for the week, and have a fun weekend of football! Stay Safe on the East Coast and GO BIG RED!!
#CollegeFootballKnowItAll
Alex Fernando
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