College Football is finally Back!!! Hey everyone, I hope you're as excited as I am about football being back! I apologize to anyone who tried to tune into our radio show, The Second String on KRNU2 last week, they forgot the activate our ID cards, so we were unable to get into the booth. That issue has been resolved, so every Tuesday from 7-8 pm you can tune into the online stream of KRNU2 at http://krnu.unl.edu/. Now onto my predictions for this weeks' games!
Maryland at #23 Texas
Picking games for the first week of the season is always the toughest, because I have only assumptions and guesses to base my picks off of. I'm starting with the Maryland-Texas game because even though Texas finished last year 5-7, they are ranked to start the season and some analysts even have them competing for a Big XII Championship and more! This is all due to they hype followed by the hiring of Tom Herman in replace of Charlie Strong. Don't get me wrong, Texas has a number of experienced players returning and Herman is a great coach. However, this game will give us a lot of insight to the season the Longhorns could have. Offensively, they are lead by Sophomore QB Shane Buechele. Buechele passed nearly 3,000 yards last year with 21 TDs and 11 picks. He returns a number of weapons including speedster Devin Duvernay who averaged 20.6 yards per catch last year as he sprinted past defenders. The Longhorns have to replace star RB D'Onta Foreman who has moved onto the NFL, taking with him 2,028 rushing yards and 15 TDs with a 6.3 yards per carry average. The duo replacing Foreman are Junior Chris Warren III and Sophomore Kyle Porter. Porter is listed as the #1 back, but I expect both of them to be used heavily to take the pressure off of Buechele. The Terrapins return a number of offensive weapons including star widout D.J. Moore and the RB duo of Ty Johnson and Lorenzo Harrison III who combined for 1,637 yards last season along with 11 TDs. They have an experienced offensive line to follow, so look for the ground game to be a focus early on for Durkin's squad. The biggest issue comes at QB. It's been a battle all offseason, and it looks like Sophomore Tyrrell Pigrome will be the guy. Pigrome appeared in 11 games last season with one start against Minnesota. He threw for just 322 yards with a 52.1% completion rating and a 2:2 TD to INT ratio, but was quite dynamic on the ground rushing for 254 yards and 4 TDs. Having a year to mature will help along with the supporting cast of weapons I mentioned. Look for Texas' defense to struggle with Pigrome's dual threat ability. Speaking of the Longhorn defense, they have a lot of returning starters, but will need to improve if they want to avoid a third straight season of giving up 30+ average points per game. The Terps are in a similar boat with experience, but not a lot of product to show for it. They gave up just under 30 points per game last year and were ranked 99th in rush defense. Senior Linebacker Jermaine Carter Jr. has lead the Terps in tackles over the past two years and will be looking to lead this defense yet again in 2017. Be sure to watch #15 on defense for the Terps, Melvin Keihn. He's a terrific pass rusher and Buechelle and crew will have to keep an eye out for him all day. In the end, I think Texas will win (not that I want them to), but I'd like to see Pigrome and Maryland test them. The Terps have the talent to stick around, we'll see if they do. Texas 34, Maryland 24.
Wyoming at Iowa
Yes, I did pick this game in part because I really hope to see Iowa lose, but trust me, Wyoming is a team to watch. They surprised everyone by winning the Mountain Division of the Mountain West Conference last year, and return star QB Josh Allen. Allen can cause headaches for any opponent, and with the Hawkeyes replacing 3 starters in the secondary, including 2015 Thorpe winner Desmond King, Allen could have a field day this weekend. The Hawks do return all 3 starting linebackers, so they will have good experience leading the defensive side of the ball. Offensively, Akrum Wadley will be the primary focus this year. Wadley rushed for 1,081 yards last year, but with a severe lack of experience at QB and WR, he could easily crack 1,500+ in 2017. The Cowboys gave up an average of 203.64 yards per game on the ground last year, so look for Iowa to attack that weakness early and often. Wyoming's defense returns 8 starters, so experience won't be much of an issue. Craig Bohl's team knows what needs to be fixed and could definitely upset Iowa at home. If Josh Allen can find early chemistry with his wideouts, the Hawkeyes will be in trouble. Iowa has a lot to replace from last year, and with Brian Ferentz being named the new OC, there could be some early struggles. Sticking to what they know best and handing the ball to Wadley as much as possible could save them, but I think Josh Allen is the real deal. Partly because I think Josh Allen and the Cowboys will do it, and partly because I want them to do it. Cowboys win a close one in Iowa City 27-23.
#11 Michigan vs. #17 Florida
For a team that only returns 6 total starters in 2017, Michigan is ranked incredibly high. The Wolverines need to replace nearly everyone, but they are lucky enough to return QB Wilton Speight who threw for more than 2,500 yards last year and 18 TDs. The ground game will be a heavy focus since all of Speights primary wideout targets are now in the NFL. Sophomore RB Chris Evans averaged 7 yards per carry last year, and will likely be the feature back in Ann Arbor. Florida is in a similar boat, but that one is sinking fast. The Gators have 10 players suspended for the opener against the Wolverines, including star WR Antonio Callaway. With so many suspensions hurting positions on both sides of the ball, Jim McElwain's squad could have a very frustrating Saturday. The Gators still have talented players, but with a new starting QB, lack of weapons and severe lack of experience on defense, I'm giving the edge to Harbaugh and Co. Michigan wins a not-so-epic opener 35-20.
Appalachian State at #15 Georgia
This game may not seem like a highlight game, but I think this has potential to be a good one. Plus, we must not forget that just a decade ago was the crazy Appalachian State upset over #5 Michigan. I like the way this one sets up because lots of people (including myself) are picking the Bulldogs to challenge Florida for the SEC East Division crown. Most people think a simple Sun Belt team would be an easy cupcake to start the year, but Appalachian State (and Arkansas State for that matter) are not your typical Sun Belt cupcakes. The Mountaineers shared last year's title with the Red Wolves, and star RB Jalin Moore looks to continue his success as a Junior. Moore rushed for over 1400 yards last season, averaging 5.9 yards per carry and topping 100+ yards in 8 games in 2016. Georgia ranked 36th in rush defense last year giving up an average of 143.7 yards per game on the ground, so Moore and Senior QB Taylor Lamb will be challenged. The Bulldogs return practically everyone on their defense, so App. State will have to keep control of the clock if they want to pull off an upset, as it could be difficult to score. Speaking of scoring, that will be Georgia's primary focus this season. They have a lot of returning weapons on offense from a year ago, but only averaged 24.5 points per game in 2016, ranking 102nd in the nation. The Mountaineers took Tennessee to Overtime in the opening week last year, so look for this to be a tough win for the Bulldogs. I like Kirby Smart's team playing at home, but never count out Appalachian State. Just remember, any given Saturday someone can go down! Nick Chubb and the Bulldogs will take over late with this one, but we can always hope for that upset! Georgia 38, Appalachian State 24.
BYU vs. #13 LSU
This game had to be moved to New Orleans due to the terrible flooding in Houston, but will go on as scheduled apart from the location change. The Cougars started their season last week at home against Portland State, but did not look overly impressive. Junior QB Tanner Mangum only completed 59.3 percent of his passes last week, and I anticipate LSU's defense to be much more stingy than Portland State. This will probably a lower scoring game because of the two teams having experienced play makers on defense. Both teams return roughly half of their defensive starters, and were both in the top 15 in scoring defense in 2016. Lucky for the Cougars, LSU has been struck by the injury bug and will be without a couple of their top pass rushers for the season opener. Because the defenses will be so tough, QB play will likely make the difference. LSU QB Danny Etling will be lead by new OC Matt Canada and is without one of the best RBs in the nation behind him. Luckily, Fournette's shoes won't be too hard to fill as Junior RB Derrius Guice already has 1,823 career rushing yards and 18 TDs. Guice will have a difficult time fighting through the Cougar Defense, but I think just a few big plays could break this game open. Closer game, but I'll give the edge to LSU and their ground attack. I think Guice will wear them down in the end. Tigers beat the Cougars 24-17.
#22 West Virginia vs. #21 Virginia Tech (Sunday)
Battle for the Black Diamond Trophy
We get to start off the 2016 with a classic rivalry being renewed! Both teams saw great success in 2016 as the Mountaineers finished 10-3 and the Hokies won the Coastal Division. The Hokies return 12 total starters including 7 on a defense that ranked 27th in scoring last year giving up only 22.8 points per game. They're going to need to be tough again on defense, because the Mountaineers averaged over 30 points per game in 2016. WVU only returns 8 starters from last season, but Senior RB Justin Crawford is back and is looking to take the pressure off of ex-Florida QB Will Grier who will start for the Mountaineers. VT has to replace lots of weapons on offense, but I think Justin Fuente will have them ready. You never know when a rivalry resumes after 12 years, but I'm going with the Hokies in this one! Virginia Tech 34, West Virginia 23.
Texas A&M at UCLA
The Aggies and the Bruins are both looking to forget disappointing seasons in 2016. There are numerous questions on both sides of the ball for Texas A&M. They have to replace a #1 draft pick on defense as well as break in a new QB. Luckily, whoever gets the nod will have some weapons to help them out. WR Christian Krik has nearly 2,000 receiving yards over the past two years along with 16 TDs. Defenses will be keying on Krik early, so the Aggies will need other wideouts to step up. On defense, I already mentioned how they will have to replace DE Myles Garrett, one of the best pass rushers in the nation. The Aggies will also be replacing some starters in the secondary, which bodes well for UCLA and star QB Josh Rosen....that is, if Rosen can stay healthy and focused on football. Injuries plagued the Bruins last season and definitely played a factor in their 4-8 record. Having Rosen back should help give their offense a boost, and I think that QB will be the difference maker in this one. Rosen has the talent, and I think there are too many question marks with the Aggies. UCLA wins it 40-24.
#25 Tennessee vs. Georgia Tech
Last year, Tennessee was the team to watch, and the team that would give Alabama a run for their money in the SEC. Last year Tennessee sputtered to a disappointing, but expected, 9-4 record. I always have a difficult time trusting the Volunteers, and this season is no different. They return a lot of experience on their offensive line, but that's about it after QB Joshua Dobbs, RB Jalen Hurd and WR Josh Malone have all moved on. Luckily, there's plenty of young talent in the cupboards for Butch Jones to use. I expect them to lean heavily on RB John Kelly who rushed for 630 yards last season while sharing carries. On the other side of the ball, the Vols will need some work. They gave up an average of 28.8 points per game in 2016 and ranked 104th in the nation in rush defense giving up 218.6 yards per game on the ground. That is bad news when you line up to face the Yellow Jackets of Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets averaged nearly 260 rush yards per game in 2016 with their Triple Option attack, and with 17 returning starters, GT is a Dark Horse team to watch in 2017. I like the Yellow Jackets in this one! Georgia Tech wins a good one 38-23.
#1 Alabama vs. #3 Florida State
The biggest opener in College Football History takes place down in Atlanta to kickoff the primary Saturday of the 2017 season! The Tide and the 'Noles clash for what looks to be an incredible game. I'm a little frustrated, because although I am beyond hyped for the Husker game, I'm a little bummed it is taking place during the same time as the FSU-Bama game. This one has the makings to be one of the all-time classics, and there are some great young players to watch. Both teams feature two dynamic Sophomore QBs in Deondre Francois and Jalen Hurts. I personally think Francois is the better of the two, especially in the passing game. Francois threw for 3,350 yards with a 20:7 TD to INT ratio last season compared to Hurts who threw for 2,780 yards and a 23:9 TD to INT ratio. The biggest difference between the two is the protection. Francois was sacked 34 times last season and was constantly under pressure. Jalen Hurts plays QB for Alabama... so he didn't get hit very often (19 times). Protecting the QB will be one of the biggest keys to success in this one, especially because these two teams have arguably two of the best defenses in the nation. The Seminoles return 9 starters on the defensive side of the ball, including one of the best players in the nations with Safety Derwin James. The Tide only return 5, but again, it's Alabama, I think they'll probably be okay. This game is incredibly difficult to pick on because I think both of these teams will be in the CFP at the end of the year. Florida State has the talent to beat Alabama, but it's so hard to pick against Bama, especially in a season opener. I want to see Francois have the game of a lifetime and beat the Tide, but I think the offensive line for Bama will be too much in the end. Great game, great finish, Roll Tide. Bama 31, FSU 30.
Arkansas State at Nebraska
Now is the prediction you've all been waiting for! I got the chance to help out with Football Friday at the Wick Alumni Center last night, and listened to the football panel on their predictions for the Husker game. The recurring theme that was talked about were all the question marks. This has been one of the most anticipated Husker seasons of my lifetime, simply because we have no idea what the Huskers will look like! New QB, new weapons on offense, new defense, new faces and a new outlook on direction of the program. So many questions will be answered in this opener, not just because we'll see lots of new players on the field, but because the Red Wolves face a bigger challenge than most think. They won a share of the Sun Belt title last year and were a top 20 defense giving up only 21.5 points per game on average. They also lead the nation in tackles for loss in 2016, so look for their defense to come with a lot of pressure. Senior DE Ja'Von Rolland-Jones lead the nation with 13.5 sacks last year, so Tanner Lee and Crew will definitely have to keep an eye on him. The good news for the Huskers is even though the Red Wolves have strength on the Defensive line, their biggest weakness is their offensive line. Arkansas State will be starting 5 new offensive linemen against Nebraska today, so the new 3-4 defense will have lots of opportunities to cause havoc. We've all heard the things to watch for, but I'm just excited to have football back, get some questions answered and watch some of my good friends play football! Be sure to watch #57 Jake Weinmaster and #23 DiCaprio Bootle! Huskers win a solid game and answer a lot of questions for us! Nebraska 37, Arkansas State 17.
I hope you enjoyed all of my game predictions and have a fantastic Saturday! Be sure to subscribe with your email so you can receive updates on my posts and GO BIG RED!!
#CollegeFootballKnowItAll
Alex Fernando
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