Hey football fans, I hope you're ready for another week of football predictions! This post had to be done a little earlier because of the Huskers' game on tonight at Illinois. However, there are some other good games to watch Friday night, so I probably would've put this post up early anyways. Here are my predictions on the big games this weekend, enjoy!
#14 Miami at Duke (Friday)
The Hurricanes are looking for their first major win of the season as they travel to Durham, NC to take on the sneaky Blue Devils. Duke is 4-0 so far this season and has been playing surprisingly well, especially on defense! They're giving up an average of 261.5 yards per game and just 15.3 points. They've held down some fairly efficient offenses so far this season in Northwestern, Baylor and North Carolina. If the Hurricanes think their #14 ranking will win them the game in this one, they are sorely mistaken. The Canes are playing in only their third game of the season, and while their offense has looked good, the defense still needs some work. They are giving up an average of 389.5 yards per game, with 286.5 of that coming through the air. Logan Woodside and the Rockets of Toledo torched them for nearly 350 last week, and Duke QB Daniel Jones already has 904 yards on the season with a 62% completion rating. The one concerning stat for the Blue Devils that may play into Miami's favor is that Jones has been sacked 9 times already this season. Miami has a lot to prove with their 14th ranking on the line, and I'm not sure they can do it. Duke is playing really good football right now, and I like the Blue Devils at home. Watch the running backs in this match up, whoever can get their ground game going first and keep it, likely wins this game. Mark Walton for Miami has 352 yards and 3 TDs through 2 games and Shaun Wilson has 349 yards and 5 TDs through 4 games. I'm taking Duke at home though, Blue Devils take down the Canes 37-33.
#5 USC at #16 Washington State (Friday)
Sam Darnold vs. Luke Falk, two of the best QBs in the nation will face off under the lights in Pullman, WA. This game has some interest because USC has not looked quite as strong as everyone imagined coming into this season, especially when they've given up back to back 300 yard passing games. Surely Luke Falk and company can take advantage of that right? Wazzu is 3rd in the nation for passing offense with an average of 432.5 yards per game. Falk has 1,378 yards, 14 TDs, 1 pick and an incredible 76.9% completion rating so far this season. He has been sacked 10 times already though, and had to leave the Boise State game for a good part of the game, so USC will be looking to keep him under pressure. It's clear that Falk can light up any defense though, and a reeling USC secondary struggled against a decent, but not great, Cal offense last week. Looking at the other QB, Sam Darnold has been good, but not quite what everyone expected coming into this year. He has 7 picks through 4 games this season, and has been sacked 7 times compared to just 6 last year. In my opinion, this game will come down to which defense steps up. The Cougars, who aren't normally strong on defense, have been fairly solid this year against sub-par competition. USC has faced some tougher offenses, but have been gashed for lots of yards, and Mike Leach loves to rack up the yards. Redzone efficiency will be crucial in this game, and that's where I think USC has the edge. They will be able to use their ground game more effectively in the Redzone, and I expect Ronald Jones III to have a big game to take some of the pressure off of Darnold. I would love to see Luke Falk and Wazzu cause the upset, but USC has too much talent across the board to let that happen. Trojans run away with this one late, 46-30.
#7 Georgia at Tennessee
The Bulldogs are coming off a big win at home over the other bulldogs (Mississippi State), but now they have to travel to Rocky Top for a big battle in the SEC East. The Vols will be looking to get back on track after their stunning loss to Florida two weeks ago and a sub-par performance against UMass last week. I really don't think this game will be a very fun one for Tennessee, but they have the ability to give Georgia a run for their money. The only way to do that is to give the ball to John Kelly as much as possible. He is the feature play-maker for the Vols, and has accounted for over 600 yards and 6 TDs so far this season. Their offense runs through him because Quinten Dormandy has not been very impressive (or helpful at times) at QB. Georgia's run defense is incredibly stout however, and they held Mississippi State to just 177 on the ground last week, even though they're a team that averages nearly 270 per game. John Kelly could have a tough time finding holes this weekend in the nation's 18th best rush defense. Looking at the other side with Georgia's offense against Tennessee's defense, this should be an easy pick. Nick Chubb and Sony Michel will lead the ground game as Jake Fromm looks more and more comfortable commanding the offense. I don't expect Georgia to have too many problems in this game. Bulldogs bring the bark and the bite to win 34-14.
#24 Mississippi State at #13 Auburn
One of the few ranked match-ups we have in week 5 takes place down in the SEC West. The Mississippi State Bulldogs are looking to rebound against the very quietly high-ranked Tigers of Auburn. I think I talked up the Bulldogs a little too much last week, because right after that, Georgia demolished them. Auburn hasn't done much this season, their biggest moment is arguably losing 14-6 to Clemson, so it's hard to imagine what all they'll bring to the table in this game. The numbers for both teams are surprisingly similar across the board, so taking care of the ball will be crucial in this one. Both teams can score, and have play-makers at the QB position. Nick Fitzgerald is still one of my feature players to watch in the nation, because this Junior is an incredible football player. He's the second leading rusher for the Bulldogs and has improved on his completion percentage from a year ago when passing. Auburn has a stingy defense, but I have faith in Fitzgerald and crew to bounce back after last week. Bulldogs pull out a good one on the road, 24-20.
Colorado at UCLA
Both of these teams are coming off tough losses to teams from the PAC-12 North with Washington trouncing the Buffs in Boulder and UCLA being run over, around and through by the Stanford Cardinal on the road. Both teams were gashed constantly by their opponents ground game, Colorado gave up 254 on the ground to the Huskies and UCLA gave up 405 to Stanford. This is a good stat to look at because Colorado RB Philipp Lindsay has 446 yards on the ground thus far in the season, so look for the Buffs to exploit that weakness in UCLA. The Bruins rushing attack doesn't have much traction, but Josh Rosen keeps that offense humming. The Buffs held Jake Browning to just 160 with 1 TD and 1 pick last week, but with Rosen averaging around 450 per game, that could be tough to stop. The primary factors in this game are those two play-makers for each offense. If Colorado focuses their game through Lindsay, I think they'll have the edge because they are playing much better defense overall compared to UCLA. However, if they allow Rosen to stay comfortable in the pocket, he'll do a lot more damage than Browning ever could've done. One other factor is Buffs QB Steven Montez. The Sophomore is extremely accurate, posting a 70.3% completion rating, but was constantly under pressure last week, leading to 3 picks against the Huskies. I don't think UCLA's pass rush is scary enough to push him around too much, so I'm taking the Buffs on the road. I think UCLA's season is starting its iconic downward spiral, and a home loss to Colorado could kick it into overdrive. Buffs 47, Bruins 34.
#2 Clemson at #12 Virginia Tech
This is easily the game of the week, and with good reason. The reigning champs take their unbeaten record on the road yet again to face the scarily, and mysteriously dynamic Hokies. Everyone thought this team was going to take a step back after Jerod Evans left after last year, but true Freshman Josh Jackson has been incredible this season, and has potential to be one of the best VA Tech has ever seen. Jackson has yet to face a defense as formidable as the Tigers' though. Clemson has already shut down the reigning Heisman winner, so there's no reason they should be scared of a little Freshman right? The Tigers are only giving up an average of 227 yards per game, so Virginia Tech will be in a slug-fest to pull out a victory in this one. The advantage? The Hokies get to play at home, under the lights. Blacksburg, VA is never a place you want to play as a top 10 team, but especially as the national game of the week. The Hokies live up well to the hype, and I have no doubt the freshman will impress tonight and hold his own against the Clemson defense. However, Jackson isn't the only QB in this game. Tiger QB Kelly Bryant has looked better and better each game, but is still a little in accurate at times. Luckily his receiving corps is good enough to cover up some of those mistakes, but Virginia Tech's stingy secondary won't make anything easy. Tech is almost always one of the best pass defenses in the nation, so look for Bryant to have to make plays with his feet. Both QBs will have to use their legs quite a bit in this one, especially with the expected heavy dose of pass rush coming their way. I honestly like the Hokies in this one. Again, I just think a night game in Blacksburg as the #2 team sounds like a bad idea. Clemson's defense is their best chance, we'll see if they can crack the level-headed freshman! Hokies pull the upset 31-28. I think this has the potential to be one of the best games all season!
Nebraska at Illinois (Friday)
The Huskers have a short week and travel to Champaign to take on the Fighting Illini. Nebraska lost in Champaign two years ago as they failed to have any offensive production throughout the entire game (sounds familiar). Two new teams will be taking the field this time as the Huskers have Tanner Lee at QB and Illinois has Junior Chayce Crouch. Crouch and Lee have very similar numbers with around 52% completion rating and more picks than TDs. Hopefully Lee can start to flip that around, but as I've been saying all season long, it all starts up front. Offensive line improvement is crucial to the success of any team, especially Nebraska. Lee has been sacked 6 times already, and a couple of his picks have been due primarily to being hit as he throws. The lack of a run game without Tre Bryant picked up a bit last week as the Huskers unleashed their 1, 2 Punch with Mikale Wilbon and Devine Ozigbo. Look for Ziggy to have another big role in this game, but Wilbon will get his touches as well. With so many injuries still plaguing Nebraska, depth could be an issue yet again. It looks like David Knevel and Stanley Morgan will start at RT and WR respectively, hopefully giving Tanner Lee a little more help. The key for Nebraska in this game is to get the ground game going early and keep it running throughout the game. Illinois has been giving up an average of about 185 on the ground per game, so there are weaknesses to attack in their front seven. On the defensive side of the ball, pressure on the QB is still the big issue for the Huskers. Illinois has already given up 7 sacks so far this season, and putting pressure on a lackluster QB will make it very difficult for the Illini to move the ball. The defense has shown great improvement since the second half of Oregon and have only given up 17 points themselves over the past 10 quarters. Hopefully that trend can continue tonight. The Blackshirts will need to watch out for the two Mikes in Orange & Blue however. RB Mike Epstein and WR Mike Dudek are the lead weapons on offense and will be heavily focused on in this game. I think the Huskers will come out with a decent performance, establish a strong ground game and run away with this one late to wear out Illinois. Hopefully Tanner Lee can get a good confidence building game on the road before heading into Wisconsin, and the Blackshirts will continue their improvement! Huskers win it 33-20 on the road!
Here are a few quick hits on some interesting match ups over the weekend as well:
Northwestern at #10 Wisconsin- You never know which Northwestern team will show up, but they have not looked good this season. Wisconsin should roll, but it may not be until the second half like they have been. Badgers 37, Wildcats 7.
Vanderbilt at #21 Florida- Vandy disappointed me greatly last week, and now they have to travel to the swamp. Florida upset me and beat Kentucky in a tight one up in Lexington. I would love to see Vandy bounce back, but Florida in the Swamp is too much. Gators chomp the Commodores 30-14.
Indiana at #4 Penn State- The Nittany Lions are coming off a very tough game at Iowa, and Indiana has a stingy defense as well. Will there be any hangover? The answer is no, Penn State should be ready to go, and Saquon Barkely will be unstoppable yet again. Nittany Lions have no issues with the Hoosiers and win it 40-20.
Arizona State at Stanford- The Sun Devils upset Oregon last week, but now have to travel to Palo Alto to a Stanford team that seems to have their season back on track after a recent QB change. K.J. Costello looked very impressive coming in off the bench against UCLA and I think he'll get the nod for the rest of the season. Plus, there's this young man named Bryce Love, and he cannot be stopped. Stanford runs over, around and through the Sun Devils at home, 42-23.
Memphis at UCF- Two dynamic offenses lead by two second year head coaches are set to clash down in Orlando. This game was supposed to be played earlier this season, but had to be rescheduled due to all of the hurricanes. Both teams can put up a lot of points, but I think UCF has the edge on defense. Golden Knights win a shootout at home, 47-39.
South Carolina at Texas A&M- Two forgotten SEC teams with two young studs at QB. The battle between Jake Bentley and Kellen Mond is one that I am really looking forward to this weekend! Bentley is better in the passing game, but Mond can run circles around defenses. I'll give the edge to A&M at home, plus I think their offense has more play makers overall. Aggies 38, Gamecocks 24.
Cal at Oregon- Both teams had tough losses a week ago, so the bounce back will be the key to watch. Cal needs to cut down on turnovers, because throwing 4 picks and losing to USC by 10 says a lot about the team. Oregon just failed to contain Manny Walkins and the Sun Devil passing attack. If Cal can take care of the ball, they have a good shot on the road in this one. Oregon leans on the run game and takes this one though. Ducks 33, Golden Bears 27.
Thanks for reading all my picks and have a great weekend of football! Be sure to subscribe with your email so you can get updates on my blog posts and remember to tune into The 2nd String every Tuesday from 7-8pm on KRNU2 online to hear my and my pal Nate discuss anything and everything College Football! GO BIG RED!
#CollegeFootballKnowItAll
Alex Fernando
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