Hey everybody, it's week 4 in College Football and we have a great slate of games lined up to watch! I'm very excited because it's Homecoming week at Nebraska, and we've had some very fun festivities all week, and hopefully have a good game tomorrow against Rutgers! I was lucky enough to be selected as one of the Homecoming Royalty Candidates this year, which means I will get announced at half time as we walk out onto the field. They will announce the King and Queen once we are on the field, so we'll see what happens! Regardless of the result, it's been an awesome week with great friends and school spirit. Be sure to cheer for me if you're at the game! Anyways, let's get onto my game predictions (I'll cover all of the Eichorst stuff next week in my review).
#1 Alabama at Vanderbilt
On the surface, this just look like another game for Bama to roll through. However, for those of you who have not had the chance to watch Vanderbilt, this is no cake-walk for Alabama on the road. The biggest names to look are Vandy QB Kyle Shumur and Bama QB Jalen Hurts. Hurts has been improving since his terrific freshman campaign, but still struggles in the passing game at times. His numbers the past couple games have looked good, but he's about to face the number 1 pass defense in the nation! That's right, the lowly Commodores from Nashville are only allowing 95.3 pass yards per game, and have 5 picks through three games. Hurts will have to really take care of the ball in this game, because Vandy's defense is tough, opportunistic and do not give up many points. Their defense will be tested today, but I think the Commodores can hang. Most of that lies with their star QB Kyle Shumur. Shumur has thrown for 703 yards and 8 TDs so far this season, and Bama's legendary defense is sitting at 64th in the nation for pass yards, giving up 224 per game. Expect Vandy to take advantage of that. The spread is 19, but I honestly think this is going to be a close game. I really want to see Vandy pull the upset, but it is still Bama. Commodores keep it tight and prove to everyone they are legit. Alabama 24, Vandy 16.
#5 USC at Cal
Another top ranked team goes on the road this weekend, and that seems to be the theme of the week. The Trojans are traveling up North to take on Pac-12 Rival Cal. The Golden Bears looked improved from a season ago, and new head coach Justin Wilcox is looking for a big signature win during his first season. The Trojans are also coming off a dramatic Double-OT win against Texas at home last week, so we'll see how much that game took out of them. Sam Darnold did not look very impressive against Texas, but still had 397 yards and 3 TDs. Texas put a lot of pressure on Darnold last week, so look for Cal to bring the heat. The big stats in this game are the Trojans averaging 537 yards of offense and 39.3 points per game while Cal averages 433 yards and 31.7 points per game. Both of these teams can move the ball and put up some points, so we'll see how the defenses handle all of this action. My play maker to watch is Cal RB Patrick Laird. As a former walk-on, this kid is arguably the most valuable player on Cal's team. I watched him last week and he is a very tough runner, with 278 yards and 4 TDs on the ground so far, but also a very good receiver out of the backfield. USC will definitely need to watch him in this game. Much like Bama & Vandy, the spread is 17, and I think that's too much for a team playing at home. I think the Trojans stay strong, but Cal keeps it closer than they'd like. Trojans win it 38-28.
#16 TCU at #6 Oklahoma State
This is definitely the feature game of the week, and like most Big XII match ups, should be pretty high scoring! The Frogs and the Pokes have been two of the most dynamic offenses in all of college football so far this season. Both are top 20 in the nation for total offense, and TCU averages 49 points while Oklahoma State averages 54 points. Two stellar QBs in Kenny Hill and Mason Rudolph take the stage looking to light up the scoreboard. One thing to watch in this game is the balanced attack from TCU. The Horned Frogs average 277 yards passing and 230 yards rushing per game. The Cowboys are primarily focused on their passing attack, but when you have Mason Rudolph and one of the nation's best receiving corps, I don't blame them! Rudolph already has 1,135 yards 11 TDs and just 1 pick on the season, but TCU will be the toughest defense they've faced yet this year. The Horned Frogs have been very aggressive this year, holding opponents to just 14.3 points per game on average and under 100 yards rushing. This is going to be a classic Big XII Shootout, but I think the Pokes have the edge. With two teams so evenly matched, it's often defined by the QB play, and although Kenny Hill is playing well this year, it's hard to go against the leading Heisman Candidate. Mason Rudolph keeps slinging it deep to Washington and Oklahoma State wins in a thriller 48-44. This will be a good one!
#8 Michigan at Purdue
Again, this looks a lot like the first couple picks I made on the surface, but a good (not great) Michigan team has to travel on the road against a surging Purdue team under new management. Kicking off BIG 10 play in West Lafayette seems like a cake walk for the Wolverines, but Purdue's offense has already improved from 80th in total offense in 2016 to 44th in 2017 thus far. The name to watch is Redshirt Freshman Wideout Jackson Anthrop. He's become the top target for the Boilermaker offense, especially in the redzone with 4 TDs. Speaking of the redzone, Purdue leads the conference in redzone efficiency scoring on all 13 trips this season, including 10 TDs. Michigan is on the opposite side of that spectrum. They are only 1/10 in scoring in the redzone this season, and QB Wilton Speight is only 1/13 on passes in the redzone. On the other side of the ball, Michigan's defense was expected to drop off after nearly all their starters left, but they have been very solid this year. Only giving up an average of 208 yards per game and 14.7 points per game. The Boilermakers will challenge that, and this could be a one score game. Would love to say Boiler Up on this one, but my upset pick is coming later. Michigan wins a closer one than they'd like, 30-20.
#17 Mississippi State at #11 Georgia
The Battle of the Bulldogs is about to take place between the Hedges down in Athens. Georgia hosts the red-hot Bulldogs from Mississippi State, and this game will be a lot of fun to watch! Nick Fitzgerald is one of the hottest QBs in all of College Football, and he's probably my dark-horse Heisman at this point in the season. Most people might think I'm jumping on the bandwagon, but I watched him a lot last season after he took over for Dak Prescott and I knew this kid was good. He shredded LSU's defense last week for 268 yards and 4 total TDs. The Dawgs defense will have their hands full with Fitzgerald and this offense, especially with RB Aries Williams averaging 112 yards per game on the ground. Georgia's rush defense has been very good, giving up only 71 yards on average in their first three games, but this is the best offense they've faced this season. Freshman QB Jake Fromm is expected to start in his third game as Jacob Eason still recovers from injury, so look for Mississippi State to bring pressure. Fromm has looked solid in his first couple starts, but this is a very tenacious defense, so he'll need to rely heavily on Nick Chubb and Sony Michel. I think both teams are very solid, and Georgia definitely has a good shot at winning the East, but Mississippi State looks like the team to beat right now. I think they get it done on the road and I'm saying HAIL STATE! Dan Mullins and crew beat Georgia between the Hedges 27-17.
#20 Florida at Kentucky
Florida still has some offensive struggles, but they were able to pull off a fantastic Hail Mary against Tennessee last week. The Wildcats have quietly been playing very good football, and they are not a team I'd want to face, especially on the road. Florida's defense has been struggling over the past couple weeks, especially late in the game. Kentucky doesn't have the most dynamic offense, but Mark Stoops has some play makers and RB Ben Snell Jr. has 272 yards and 3 TDs so far this season. The Gators will have their hands full and I honestly think Kentucky pulls the upset in this one. I don't have too much to say, because I just want to see this game and how it plays out. The Wildcats' defense is only allowing 57 yards on the ground too, so be sure to watch the Florida ground game. The Gators pulled it out of the fire last week, but I think Kentucky wins it at home. Close game, low scoring. UK 23, Florida 17.
#7 Washington at Colorado
Did I say this was the week for top ranked teams to play on the road? Washington travels to Boulder, CO in a rematch of last year's Pac-12 Championship. Again, Washington looks like the heavy favorite, but Colorado has played tough at home, and will be looking to avenge last year's 41-10 beat down. Steven Montez has taken over as QB for the Buffs and Phillip Lindsay already has 378 and 3 TDs on the ground this season. They'll be up against another dynamic Pac-12 duo in QB Jake Browning and RB Myles Gaskin. Browning has looked as solid as ever, passing for nearly 800 yards, 8 TDs and just 1 pick. Gaskin has not been used as much as I think he should be, with only 24 carries on the season and 154 rushing yards. He does have 3 TDs on the ground and has a few receptions as well, but if Washington wants to get back to the College Football Playoff and compete, they need to start getting Gaskin the ball. I think Washington should be good in this game, but you always have to be careful of those un-ranked opponents on the road. Huskies win it in a solid performance 38-23.
Rutgers at Nebraska
There isn't much to say with this game either. Nebraska has a lot of questions swirling around after the loss to NIU last week and with Shawn Eichorst being let go as Athletic Director just a couple days ago on Thursday. The best way to forget about all of that is a football game, and the Huskers get to open BIG 10 play on Homecoming with Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights are coming off a 65-0 performance against a D-2 team, but the Huskers will be a different opponent. Even with a rough couple of weeks, Nebraska has the talent to score on anyone and with an improving defense, the Huskers should bounce back this week. The offensive line will be on their 3rd RT with Brenden Jaimes getting his first start after the injury to Farniok last week. Tanner Lee will need to get rid of the ball quickly, and I would really love to see Nebraska start leaning on the ground game. Hopefully Devine Ozigbo will be allowed to play and we can get a bit of a change-up at RB. Defense will need to continue improving, but last week was a big step. They'll need to shut down Rutgers RB Gus Edwards who has 201 yards on the ground this season. Offensive success is crucial in this game, so look for the Huskers to come out firing. I think they'll come out and play better, but with such a crazy week, it'll be a tough game. Husker win it 33-20.
Here are a few quick hits on games I didn't have the chance to break down:
#4 Penn State at Iowa- Iowa is always tough at home, but I think Penn State is legit. Nittany Lions roll to a 48-21 victory.
Notre Dame at Michigan State- The last time this great Rivalry will be played until 2026! This is a good match up, and playing in East Lansing is never fun, but I think Notre Dame is on the rise, and I'll give them the nod on the road. Irish win 28-24.
Texas A&M vs. Arkansas- A Classic Southwest Rivalry takes place at Cowboys stadium this week in the Aggies vs. the Hogs. Aggies are struggling big time and I think the Razorbacks take it with the ground game. Hogs 33, Aggies 21.
UCLA at Stanford- Two teams that have stumbled a bit the past couple weeks. Stanford needs some better QB play, and until that happens I have to go with the Bruins. Rosen looks good on the road, but watch out for Bryce Love. UCLA wins 37-31.
Thanks for reading all my game picks this weekend and be sure to cheer me and my fellow Royalty Candidates on at Halftime! Happy Saturday and GO BIG RED!
#CollegeFootballKnowItAll
Alex Fernando
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