Week 12 Prediction Results: 8-5
Overall Prediction Results: 86-67
Virginia at Virginia Tech (Battle for the Commonwealth Cup)
The Hokies have not had the year they expected in 2018. Sitting at 4-6, their team more or less fell apart after the loss to Old Dominion early in the season. They've found a bit more success with Ryan Willis at Quarterback, as he's thrown for nearly 2,000 yards with a 17:6 TD to INT ratio. Their defense has been the most concerning issue however, especially because they are typically one of the more higher ranked ones in the nation. "DBU" has been non-existent this year, giving up an average of 228 yards through the air and just under 32 points per game. Their rival Cavaliers have had another solid season, sitting at 7-4, but coming off the heels of an Overtime loss at Georgia Tech. The Cavs are lead by Junior QB Bryce Perkins on offense, who is completing 65.4% of his passes for 2,213 yards and 19 TDs. He does have 9 picks on the season, and the protection hasn't been great as he's been sacked 29 times so far. Defensively though, the Cavaliers give up just 20.6 points per game, and have 13 picks on the season. I'm taking Virginia to win the Commonwealth Cup this year, 33-20.
#9 UCF at South Florida (War on I-4)
The Golden Knights have become the first ever G-5 team to break into the top-10 of the CFB Playoff Rankings. Now they look to close out a second straight undefeated season against in-state rival South Florida. The Bulls started the season 7-0, but have lost 4 straight since. The back half of their schedule is definitely the tough part, and now they finish against the team that hasn't lost in 2 seasons. Blake Barnett leads the Bulls offense, but their ground game needs to be a focus in this match-up. UCF's defense is tough, giving up just 20 points per game. However, there are a good amount of yards to be had against them. They rank 112th in rush defense, giving up 213 yards per game on average. If the Bulls can establish a ground game with Junior RB Jordan Cronkrite, they could make this game pretty interesting. Cronkrite has over 1,000 yards on the season thus far along with 9 TDs. His production has dropped significantly over the last four weeks, likely a key factor in their four losses. Switching to the team that doesn't lose, I direct your attention to star QB McKenzie Milton. Milton should've been a Heisman Finalist last year, and has backed that narrative up again this year. He's thrown for over 2,500 yards with a 24:5 TD to INT ratio to go along with another 9 TDs and nearly 300 yards on the ground. Milton is the unquestioned leader of this squad and is the X-factor in every game for UCF. He'll have another big day and the Knights will keep their undefeated and Playoff Hopes (kind of) alive! UCF 42, South Florida 24.
Georgia Tech at #5 Georgia (Clean, Old-Fashioned Hate)
The Yellow Jackets and the Bulldogs meet for the 113th time this weekend between the hedges in Athens. The Ramblin' Wreck will look to ground and pound with their triple option attack while the Dawgs will use their balanced attack with the QB duo of Jake Fromm and Justin Fields. Georgia Tech lead the nation yet again on the ground, averaging 353 yards per game. Georgia allows just under 130 on the ground per game, so we will have a classic unstoppable force vs. an immovable object scenario in this game. For Georgia's offense, they should be able to take advantage of Tech's defense, especially through the air. Jake Fromm is completing 68.2% of his passes and has a 20:5 TD to INT ratio. Don't get me wrong, there will be a heavy dose of D'Andre Swift and Elijah Holyfield out of the backfield, but Fromm will be the one to break this game open. Big day from the Georgia offense and they prep for Bama in the SEC Championship with a win. Dawgs 34, Yellow Jackets 21.
#11 Florida at Florida State (Sunshine Showdown)
A game that used to decide the best team in the state of Florida has lost its luster in recent years. The Gators are looking for their first win in this series since 2012 and the 'Noles are fighting to keep their NCAA-record 36-year bowl streak alive. FSU has not looked great this year, averaging 22.6 points per game while giving up 30.6. They rank 102nd in total offense, even with the talents of Deondre Francois and Cam Akers in the backfield. The Gators have been flirting with danger in a few different games this season, but their defense often bails them out. They will look to keep a lot of pressure on Francois in this game, as he's been sacked 24 times this year. The 'Noles need to try to get Cam Akers going on offense, otherwise they don't stand a chance. I'll take the Gators in this one, Dan Mullen finishes his first Florida season off with a solid win against the rival. Florida 30, FSU 14.
#20 Syracuse at Boston College
The 'Cuse and the Golden Eagles are trudging off of rough weekends as they head into their game against each other. BC will look to get their ground game started again with AJ Dillon, as he's coming off his first 100+ yard performance since October. The Orange have a decent run defense, giving up around 170 per game on the ground, but Dillon is not an easy back to bring down. The Eagles will focus their offense around him and look to control the clock. For the 'Cuse, their chances to win really depend on the health of Senior QB Eric Dungey. Dungey went down early in the Notre Dame game with an injury last week, and the offense lost it's mojo. Without Dungey, Tommy DeVito will be in at QB. Boston College's defense isn't quite the Irish's, but they're not easy to get by. If Dungey plays, they have a shot, but I'm sticking with Boston College in this game. AJ Dillion runs away with it and the Eagles win 24-10.
Purdue at Indiana (Battle for the Old Oaken Bucket)
The Boilermakers and the Hoosiers square off in Bloomington as they both look to get bowl eligible while preventing their arch rival from doing the same. Indiana's typically sturdy defense has struggled this year, giving up 30 points per game and over 420 yards on average. They played tough at Michigan last week, but their offense doesn't really produce much. Purdue on the other hand, their offense is one of the most dynamic in the nation. The Boilermakers rank 23rd in total offense, averaging 460 yards per game. David Blough has really taken over in his senior season, throwing for 3,211 yards with 22 TDs and 7 picks. His stats are helped by the fact that one of the best players in the nation just happens to be his top wide receiver. Freshman standout Rondale Moore has 1,023 yards receiving on the year to go along with 10 touchdowns. He's easily one of the most dynamic players I've ever had the privilege of watching in person. Indiana will play them tough, as always, but I cannot pick against Rondale Moore. Boilermakers win the Bucket and Bowl eligibility. Purdue is going to try to give a reason for Jeff Brohm to stick around with a 34-24 victory.
Auburn at #1 Alabama (The Iron Bowl)
Can we have another Kick-6 please? Can we have anything that knocks off the Crimson Tide? The answer is no. Tua Tagovailoa and the Tide look to continue Rolling as arch rival Auburn comes into town and unfortunately, I don't think the Tigers will be coming out with a win. Alabama looks to be absolutely unstoppable this season, averaging 48.7 points per game and giving up just 13. They've already handed Tua the Heisman Trophy (not necessarily a bad choice, but they do need to talk about other players in the nation too) and Bama will likely roll onto another National Championship. Auburn is always a factor, especially in the Iron Bowl, but fans are starting to get frustrated with Gus Malzahn and his lack of offensive production. I don't think this will be his last Iron Bowl, but they will definitely be looking for more production next season. The Tigers defense is always tough, and they will be looking to slow down the Tide's offense. I think they'll keep it close for a bit, but Bama is to much right now. Crimson Tide win it 30-17.
Maryland at #12 Penn State
Now this might not seem like a marquee game, but there's bad blood here and these teams have a lot to play for. Starting with the Terps, they're one win away from bowl eligibility, (after screwing up their upset on Ohio State last week). This team has a lot of talent and is really starting to build a new culture since the departure of DJ Durkin. It will take a while before they're cured of everything he did to the program, but you can tell there's a new energy around this team. I think that's what makes them so dangerous, combined with the young talent. Freshman Running Back Anthony McFarland has taken the world by storm over the last couple weeks, rushing for 508 yards and 2 TDs in just the last two games combined. He had just a shade under 300 against the Buckeyes and will look to challenge Penn State's 80th ranked rush defense, which gives up an average of 177 yards on the ground per game. The Nittany Lions have a secret weapon though, and his name is Trace McSorley. Okay, maybe he's not really a secret, but McSorley is one of the best leaders in all of college football. He's very rarely lost during his entire football career, and has numerous weapons on what still can be a very deadly offense. Along with RB Miles Sanders and WR KJ Hamler, they should be able to put up some points against Marlyand's 55th ranked total defense. The weather is not going to be great out in Happy Valley, so that could dampen the points a bit, but I expect both offenses to play well and really challenge each other. Tough, hard fought game between rivals, but there's no way I'm picking against Trace McSorley on Senior Day. Penn State 31, Maryland 23.
#24 Pitt at Miami
After handing Miami their first loss of the season last year, Pitt looks to break out their own turnover chain again against the Hurricanes as they square off in Hard Rock Stadium. The Panthers already have the Coastal Division locked up, but must get by Miami before they take on Clemson. The Panthers' offensive attack will be met with brute force as Miami's 3rd ranked total defense will be in their way. The Hurricanes are giving up just 275 yards and 19.5 points per game on average. They've been able to stick around in games because of their defense, but their offense often fails to help out. Miami ranks 93rd in total offense and have scored above 21 points just once in the last 5 weeks. Pitt again, has a very dynamic offense, lead by the QB-RB duo of Kenny Picket and Qadree Ollison. Ollison has over 1,100 yards on the season and 10 TDs. Pitt will need to focus on the ground game in order to get the victory in this one, but I like their chances. Even with Clemson looming in the not-so-distant future, the Panthers take care of business 37-20.
Arizona State at Arizona (Duel in the Desert, Battle for the Territorial Cup)
The Sun Devils had a shot to win the South Division of the Pac-12, but after a tough road loss to Oregon last week, the Utes took the crown and Arizona State will not just play for pride against Arizona. Don't think they won't be fighting though, with two first year head coaches and a lot of talent on offense for both teams, this should be a fairly interesting game. The Wildcats are led by star QB Khalil Tate, who is easily a Heisman-caliber player. Tate has 2,248 passing yards this season to go along with 23 TDs and 7 picks. His legs are what really scare defenses though, as he's rushed for another couple scores on the ground this season. While he hasn't been as effective on the ground this year (by design), Sophomore RB J.J. Taylor has picked up the slack. Taylor ranks 6th in the nation for rushing with 1,290, and will be a huge focal point in this game. The Sun Devils give up around 150 yards on the ground per game, so we'll see how much damage Arizona can do. Flipping to the other side, we look no further than the QB-WR duo of Manny Wilkins and N'Keal Harry. I've always been impressed with Wilkins' play throughout his career, and this year is no different. He's thrown for over 2,600 yards with 18 TDs and just 4 picks. He's also added another 7 scores on the ground and just makes really good decisions with the ball. N'Keal Harry leads the team with 1,033 yards and 9 TDs, he's one of the most talented players in the country. Finally, a big part of their offense that is often overlooked because of Wilkins and Harry, their running back, Eno Benjamin. Benjamin ranks 3rd in the nation for rushing, so we will see a great battle with the ground game today. I've been impressed with the Sun Devils all season, and I'll take them with a big win against the rival on the road. Herm Edwards draws first blood in the rivalry with a 38-28 victory.
BYU at #17 Utah (The Holy War, Battle for the Beehive Boot)
The Cougars have fallen off the face of the Earth after their upset against the Badgers in Camp Randall early in the season, and Wisconsin kind of did too. Regardless, BYU travels just 40 minutes North to take on their arch rival Utes, who have just claimed victory on the Pac-12 South. Now this game won't have any affect to the conference, but Utah is looking to set themselves up for a possible Rose Bowl bid, and nothing fuels that better than beating your rival. BYU has had some key injuries this season, but none bigger than star RB Squally Canada. Lopini Katoa has taken over in his place though, rushing for 155 yards and 4 TDs last week. Canada may be in the mix today, but they'll be running up against a brick wall, a.k.a. Utah's 14th ranked defense. The Utes have been tough all year on that side of the ball, and I think that's the difference maker in this game. They will cause all sorts of havoc for the Cougars, and Utah wins this one 30-14
#21 Utah State at #23 Boise State
While not a complete rivalry, this game could start to become one. The winner of this game will take the Mountain Division crown and face off against Fresno State in the Mountain West Conference Championship. The Aggies have been the biggest "under the radar" team in 2018, losing just their opener to Michigan State on the road (MSU had a last second TD to win) and dominating nearly everyone since. Sophomore QB Jordan Love is a dark horse Heisman contender next year, as he's thrown for 2,845 yards while completing 66.4% of his passes with 25 TDs and just 4 picks. He's added another 6 TDs on the ground, and is not easy to bring down, being sacked only 7 times on the year. However, they are playing on the road, and as many of you know, it's not easy to win on the Smurf Turf. The Bronco's are tough to beat at home (mostly because you can't see their players wearing blue on the blue turf), and they are led by Senior QB Brett Rypien. Rypien has thrown for 3,270 yards this season with a 28:7 TD to INT ratio and an impressive 68.5% completion percentage. Alexander Mattison leads the ground game with 13 TDs, but this will be a QB duel. Both defenses give up just 22 points per game on average and under 375 total yards. I would love to see Utah State pull this upset here, but I think Rypien's experience will be the difference maker on his home turf. Jordan Love plays well, but he'll have to wait his turn to win this budding rivalry. Go Aggies, but the Broncos win 35-31.
#7 LSU at #22 Texas A&M
The Aggies are looking for their first win in this rivalry series since joining the SEC, and Jimbo Fisher just might be the guy to do that. I'm still not convinced on LSU (they've played with my trust far too much), and I don't like them being ranked #7 (Wazzu should be above them). So the easiest way for this to go down is for Texas A&M to come after LSU QB Joe Burrow with a relentless pass rush. Burrow has been sacked 27 times so far this season, and the Aggies are averaging a tad under 3 sacks per game. I think A&M will be able to shut down the run, forcing LSU to air it out, thus resulting in the pass rush. However, you need to score points to win and that means A&M QB Kellen Mond and RB Trayveon Williams will need to break through the Tigers' tough defense. They only give up 16 points and 330 yards per game on average, so moving the ball could be a struggle. The Aggies have advantage on the outside however, and I think the height and talent of their receiving corps will be the difference maker for their offense. If Mond can take care of the football, the Aggies should be able to pull this one out. Texas A&M 27, LSU 22.
#3 Notre Dame at USC
Our last hope of knocking the Irish out of the College Football Playoffs lie with the mighty Trojans of USC... unfortunately, they're not very mighty right now. After back to back Rose Bowl appearances, USC is trying to become bowl eligible with a win over the Irish. There are lots of fans calling for Clay Helton's head, but it's honestly just a rebuilding season for USC. They lost a first-round QB, their top rusher, receiver and lots of talent on defense from last year's squad. They're starting a true Freshman at QB and have not been able to establish much of a ground game to help him out, averaging just 137 rushing yards per game. Notre Dame is playing very stellar defense right now and Ian Book has brought this offense to an impressive level of efficiency. USC is never an easy team to face, especially on the road, but I like the Irish in this one. They look like a complete team and will prove that once again as they attempt to lock up a playoff spot. Upsets are always nice, but I doubt we see one here, Notre Dame 34, USC 21.
#6 Oklahoma at #13 West Virginia
The Big XII shootout of all shootouts. I've been waiting to watch this game all year because it features two of the best QBs in the game leading two of the best offenses in the game. There will be points for DAYS in this game, and I wouldn't be surprised if they both topped 50. West Virginia is coming off of a tough, last minute loss to Oklahoma State, crushing their (and mine for them) playoff dreams. Oklahoma is the Big XII's best chance of getting at team in the Playoffs, but I don't think it will happen. The Sooners do have Kyler Murray, the to-be Heisman runner-up, but their defense just gave up 40 points to Kansas.... Yeah, I said KANSAS. If they're allowing the Jayhawks to put up 40, Will Grier and company are going to have a field day. Now this is where it gets interesting, because if Oklahoma wins, they will play Texas (assuming they handle their business against Kansas) for the Big XII Championship, a rematch I'm sure they would look forward to. If West Virginia Wins, then Oklahoma would be bumped due to the tie-breaker Texas holds over them. All you really need to know in this game is offense. There will be a LOT of offense, and the QB who has the ball last will likely win the game. This is a complete toss up, but I like West Virginia at home. Fueled by their loss last week, they'll come out with a chip on their shoulder and be ready to go. Besides, it's rivalry week, Mom would be pretty upset at me if I picked Oklahoma. Grab your popcorn ladies and gentlemen, this one is going to be fun to watch! Mountaineers 48, Boomer Sooner 46.
#16 Washington at #8 Washington State (The Apple Cup)
The Pac-12's last chance for a playoff team has a big hurdle to conquer as they take on their arch rival Huskies out on the Palouse. Playing in Pullman will be a big bonus for the Cougars, but the Huskies are 5-0 in the last 5 years, winning the previous 3 by a combined score of 131-41. Wazzu will look to flip that script with Graduate-Transfer QB Gardner Minshew, a.k.a. the Stache Man. Minshew and his fabulous Mustache have thrown for a nation-leading 4,325 yards to go a long with his nation-leading 36 TDs compared to just 7 picks. He's completing 70.4% of his passes and uses every weapon possible, hitting 11 different receivers in their win against Arizona last week. The key player to watch however, is Cougar RB Max Borghi. The true Freshman has come on late in the season, but is a dangerous weapon both on the ground and through the air catching the ball. The offense has found a new spark with Borghi, and this kid is going to be a big play-maker down the road. On the other side, you have the deadly tandem of Jake Browning and Myles Gaskin for the Huskies. Washington's offense has sputtered over the last couple seasons, but these veteran players are never easy to handle. Wazzu has played some solid defense this year, and having watched a lot of their games, it's crazy to see how well they tackle and fly to the ball. I think they'll provide some good containment. The Huskies defense will have all eyes on them however, as they rank 16th in the nation, giving up just 16.6 points per game and 318 yards on average. The talent just oozes out of this squad, and they've kept their team in games when the offense isn't living up to the hype. Gardner Minshew will have to play his best game yet in order to knock the Huskies down a peg, but this kid has a Heisman vote from me and I think he can do it. Hopefully this spotlight allows him to at least get to New York, and hopefully allows Wazzu to move up in the CFB Playoff rankings! Cougars win a big one at home in the Apple Cup 31-28.
#4 Michigan at #10 Ohio State (The Game)
There is no reason to describe the hatred between these two teams, when you see the Maize and Blue go against the Scarlet and Silver, you know it's going to be a great game. This year the BIG 10 East Division crown will be decided by the victor, and whether the BIG 10 gets a team into the playoffs or not will also likely be decided. Looking at the stats, Michigan is the better team, by a mile. They've dominated nearly every game they've played this season, and their top ranked defense fears absolutely no one. The Buckeyes, while still incredibly talented, have struggled this year, especially during the second half of the season. They nearly lost at Maryland last week, and were simply lucky when the Terps missed a wide open pass on the two-point conversion that would've won the game. Dwayne Haskins has been impressive this season, throwing for 3,685 yards with 36 TDs and just 7 picks, but he's struggled when under heavy pressure. If you haven't watched the Wolverines yet this season, that's all they do. They have 31 sacks on the season and are often living in opponents backfield with 76 tackles for loss. Ohio State will need to get the ball out in space early with their wide receivers, but this is going to be a tough game to move the ball in. On the other side, Shae Patterson has really taken control of this offense, and has an 18:4 TD to INT ratio to prove it. Senior RB Karan Higdon leads the ground attack with more than 1,100 yards and 10 TDs, and he could have a big day against the Buckeyes, as they gave up nearly 300 yards on the ground to Anthony McFarland of Maryland alone last week. Now all of these stats point to a Michigan victory, right? Wrong. The key match-up of this game is Jim Harbaugh vs. Urban Meyer, and the coaching decisions made during crucial moments. I think Harbaugh is a solid coach, but he tries to overplay his hand at times, especially against Meyer and the Buckeyes. Urban, as much as I dislike him, is one of the best at in-game adjustments, and I think that will be the difference maker in this one. I hope the BIG 10 is able to represent in the playoffs, but Michigan is their only chance in my opinion, and I just don't think Harbaugh can beat Urban Meyer. We'll see if they prove me wrong, but I've got Ohio State beating Michigan 24-23.
Nebraska at Iowa (The Heroes Game, a.k.a. FARMAGEDDON)
The Huskers travel to Iowa City to take on the lowly, stinking Hawkeyes (sorry not sorry, it's rivalry week). The over-hyped birds are favored in this game, but Nebraska is easily the last 4-7 team you want to play right now, because they have confidence. They have confidence in their offense, in their coach, and a newly found confidence in their kicker and defense! Iowa is coming off a big win against Illinois, where their defense gave proof of their #6 ranking. However, they have not faced the likes of one Adrian Martinez yet, and this Freshman is ready to do damage. There are chinks in the Hawkeyes armor, and if Nebraska can establish a ground game early and stick with it, those holes will be opened up more and more. Nebraska has fallen short in this rivalry in recent years, but Iowa is quaking in their boots as Coach Frost rolls up to Kinnick, they know what he's capable of. His offense will be clicking today as Devine Ozigbo and Stanley Morgan are likely playing their last game as Huskers. Morgan needs just 77 more yards to become Nebraska's first ever 1,000 yard receiver, and you just know he's going to have a big day. Iowa's secondary is tough, but in their 4 losses, a lot of damage has been done through the air, especially the 205 yards form Alex Hornibrook of Wisconsin and the 333 yards from David Blough of Purdue. Look for Nebraska to find some holes in the zone coverage over the middle once the ground game opens up. As for the Hawkeye offense, they're often their own worse enemy. Nate Stanley is a very solid QB, but has flashes of inaccuracy in some of the biggest moments of the game. The Hawks haven't ran the ball very well this season, and Nebraska will be keying on their Tight Ends early and often. Noah Fant and T.J. Hockenson are two of the best players in the conference, so the Blackshirts will really need to keep them in check to win this game. It will be cold, it will be tough, but Adrian Martinez will show what he's really made of and this Husker team will show everyone what's to come for next year and beyond. I know Mom's ready to beat Iowa, and the Huskers are too. Nebraska wins it 26-21! GO BIG RED!
Side Note: Iowa's logo looks like Fred Flintstone's face turned on it's side.
Side Note #2: I'm excited to see the Wave on TV.
Thank you all for reading my Rivalry Week Predictions, and I hope you have a wonderful weekend! While this is a tough time for me and my family, I am extremely thankful for everything my mom taught me, and the passion she shared with me for Husker and College Football. This was always one of her favorite weekends as well and I'm sad to experience my first Rivalry Week with out the fiercest competitor I know. Thank you for everything Mom, and as you always taught me, GO BIG RED!
#CFBKnowItAll
Alex Fernando
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