Another week of College Football is upon us, and it's time for my Gameday Predictions for Week 12. While there aren't a lot of key match-ups this week, there's always still some games that sneak up on you. I'll highlight some of the interesting games of this week and give my predictions on the winners. Thanks for all the support and enjoy!
Week 11 Prediction Results: 10-5
Overall Prediction Results: 78-62
TCU at Baylor
The Horned Frogs have suffered more injuries than imaginable this season, but still have a shot at a bowl game with wins in their next two games. With a rivalry game against the Bears and a home date with Mike Gundy and the Pokes to follow, it doesn't look great. But Gary Patterson is never a coach I would doubt too often. Michael Collins has taken over at Quarterback and has played well in the last few games. He'll look to lean on Sophomore wideout Jalen Reagor as they take on the 96th ranked Baylor defense. Reagor leads the team with 60 catches, 884 yards and 7 TDs this season, one of the few bright spots for TCU. Baylor's offense is led by Charlie Brewer and his 2,164 passing yards. Ex-Tennessee running back Jalen Hurd is now the Bears' top receiver with 837 yards and 4 TDs. With this game being in Waco, the Bears definitely have the edge. TCU has struggled all season on the road, and while they'll keep it close, I think Baylor pulls away late. Next season the Frogs will be a team to watch though. Baylor 36, TCU 21.
Pitt at Wake Forest
A very dangerous game takes place in North Carolina as the Pitt Panthers travel to take on the Demon Deacons. The Panthers lead the Coastal division of the ACC and look forward to squaring off against the Tigers of Clemson if they can win one more game to lock up the division. They are averaging around 30 points per game while giving up that same 30 on defense. That number is a bit skewed because of their early season losses, as Pitt has won their last three games by a combined 129-80. They've played well, dominating the weaker division of the ACC, but Wake Forest will not be an easy win. The Demon Deacons are a dangerous team, with a deadly duo of QB Sam Hartman and WR Greg Dortch. Dortch is only 79 yards away from 1,000 receiving on the season and has 7 TDs. Pitt ranks 84th in pass defense, giving up nearly 250 yards per game through the air. Wake will definitely look to take advantage of that early, spreading the ball out as much as possible. I think they'll do some damage in this game, but Pitt's ground game with Quadree Ollison will take over late and lead them to victory. Pitt 38, Wake 31.
#19 Utah at Colorado
The Buffs have floundered after a 5-0 start, losing their last 5 games. Utah is on the rise, even after injuries have removed some of their top players, and are looking to win the Pac-12 South Division. They currently sit in second place behind Arizona State, who owns the tiebreaker, but the Sun Devils have a tough couple weeks ahead. If the Utes can handle the Buffaloes on the road, they will simply need to sit back and wait to see what happens with ASU. Focusing on this game, Utah will look to lock down Colorado's deceased offense with their 19th ranked defense. The Utes are giving up an average of just 19.7 points per game and just 101 on the ground. They will look to put a lot of pressure on Buffs QB Steven Montez while ensuring the ball stays away form star wideout Laviska Shenault Jr. I like what the Utes bring to the table in this one, especially with the ground game of Zack Moss, who's accounted for 1,092 yards and 11 TDs on the ground this season. Utah dominates this game 33-14.
#9 West Virginia at Oklahoma State
Another classic Big XII shootout looks to be in the making as Taylor Cornelius and Will Grier dual in a QB battle likely to light up the scoreboard. The Pokes narrowly lost to the rival Sooners last week and now host the high-powered offense of West Virginia. Neither defense is very good at slowing down opponents, and with how dominant these offenses are, we should be in for a good show. It's almost impossible to predict these kinds of games, but I think West Virginia will have the edge for a couple of reasons. Will Grier is playing lights out at the moment, throwing just 1 pick in his last 3 games. I expect that trend to continue as Kyler Murray lit up the Pokes for 349 through the air a week ago. Also, West Virginia's pass rush will cause a lot of issues for Taylor Cornelius. He's been sacked 27 times already this season and the Mountaineers are averaging 2.33 sacks per game. I think West Virginia is the stronger team, and they'll prove that late in the game. Grier will be great as always, but watch the running backs in this game. Justice Hill is an X-factor for OSU, but Kennedy McKoy is starting to make a name for himself in the WVU backfield. Mountaineers 44, Cowboys 34.
#24 Cincinnati at #11 UCF
College Gameday is on location in Orlando to showcase the Cincy-UCF game tonight. The Knights are looking for their 23 straight victory, but also looking to make a statement to the College Football Playoff Committee. As usual, they're not getting any respect from the committee, seemingly being left out the playoff discussion before it's even truly began. Now as they look forward to the game tonight, they will face a 9-1 Cincy team looking to take over the East Division of the American Athletic Conference. The Bearcats have a very balanced attack on offense, rushing for an average of 235 and throwing for an average of 212. Freshman QB Desmond Ridder has played very well this season, and they score 35 points per game on average. Cincy brings a stifling defense into Spectrum Stadium, ranking 6th in the nation. It will be matched up against the 2nd ranked offense in the nation with UCF. McKenzie Milton has been phenomenal this season, accounting for 29 total touchdowns (21 passing & 8 rushing). It's absolutely criminal that he wasn't at least invited to the Heisman Ceremony last year, and is still not getting any looks this year. Having watched this kid play, I cannot imagine trying to plan a defense around him. Milton is the X-factor in this game, so watch out for his play-making ability. It might not meant much in the long run, but this will be a great game to watch later tonight. UCF Knights 37, Cincy Bearcats 24.
#16 Iowa State at #15 Texas
The battle for the best second-tier Big XII team is on as the Cyclones travel South to take on the Longhorns. Both of these teams actually have a shot at getting to the Big XII Championship, but due to an interesting assortment of tie breakers, everyone needs some help. For West Virginia and Oklahoma, the math is simple, win and you're in the Big XII Championship. HOWEVER, they both play each other next week, leaving one of them with another loss. Now is where it gets tricky. West Virginia has the tiebreaker over Texas, but ISU has the tiebreaker over the Mountaineers. Oklahoma has the tie breaker over Iowa State, but Texas won the Red River Rivalry, giving them the tiebreaker of the Sooners. Texas and Iowa State both have games next week as well in conference, but they are against Kansas and Kansas State respectively, so both should be fairly easy wins to come by. This means that the winner of the ISU-Texas game has a strong possibility of making it to the conference championship. To complicate matters even more, the Cyclones have scheduled an extra game on December 1st in order to make up their cancelled opener. I'm honestly not sure what this means for them in terms of being able to go to the Conference Championship if they end up winning, so this will be an interesting two week saga to watch.... Now to focus on the actual game, Iowa State running back is suspended for the first half due to his role in the fight against Baylor last week, but the Cyclones will be happy to have him back in the second half. Texas will look to focus on their air attack, which averages 270 yards per game. Stud wideouts like Collin Johnson and Lil'Jordan Humphrey make life ridiculously easy on Sam Ehlinger, so expect Iowa State's secondary to be torched in this one. Iowa State is a tough team though, and they don't go away easy. Freshman QB Brock Purdy has been on an absolute mission this season, completing 68.6% of his passes and posting a 13:2 TD to INT ratio after playing in just 5 games. He hasn't thrown a pick in his last three games, and will likely give Texas a run for their money. This will be a very tight game, but I'll give the edge to Texas at home. Close all the way, but Texas finishes it off with a 30-28 victory.
#12 Syracuse vs. #3 Notre Dame
The biggest game of the day takes place in Yankee Stadium as the 'Cuse battle the Fightin' Irish. Notre Dame is just two wins away from a likely guaranteed playoff spot, but the Orange are not an easy team to tangle with. Senior QB Eric Dungey has nearly 2,200 passing yards on the season with a 14:5 TD to INT ratio. He's also added another 690 yards and 12 TDs on the ground, so Notre Dame's defense will really have their hands full in this game. On offense for the Irish, Ian Book is back and will be looking to take advantage of the weaker pass defense of Syracuse. The Orange give up an average of 261 yards through the air per game, giving Notre Dame lots of opportunities to pass the ball. Senior wideout Miles Boykin is 6'4 and will be using all of that frame to get up an over the Syracuse secondary. Notre Dame's biggest focus should be on the ground game though. If they can work the clock and keep Eric Dungey on the sideline, they will win this game. Dexter Williams averages nearly 7 yards per carry and has 10 TDs on the ground this season. He'll be a major focus of the offensive attack of the Irish today. Notre Dame wins the ground battle and a tough game in NYC. Irish beat the Orange 37-23.
Arizona at #8 Washington State
The Cougars host Khalil Tate and the Wildcats of Arizona before hosting their rival Huskies in the Apple Cup next week. Arizona's offense has dominated in recent weeks, now averaging 30.8 points per game and over 450 yards per game. Wazzu's defense has been steady this season, but will definitely be challenged tonight. As for the Coogs, their offensive mindset does not need to change, air it out with the stache. Gardner Minshew has nearly 4,000 yards on the season with 29 TDs and just 7 picks. Arizona gives up nearly 250 yards through the air per game, so this could get ugly. The Wildcats will keep pace early, but once the Cougar defense settles in, they will pull away. Gardner Minshew and his Mustache go to work and Wazzu wins 38-23.
Michigan State at Nebraska
The Spartans come to Lincoln as they get ready to battle the Huskers on a frigid Nebraska day. Last time Michigan State visited the Cornhusker State, they lost on a bit of a controversial play, so you know they're looking for blood. This always ends up being a great game when these two teams meet, and today should be no exception. Nebraska has the 13th ranked total offense in the nation while the Spartans bring the 21st ranked defense. Michigan State has the top ranked rush defense in the nation, which will be put to the test as Nebraska averages 226 yards on the ground per game. Adrian Martinez will give Sparty's defense a lot of headaches, and I'm anxious to see what Frost's offensive attack does against a top tier defense. On the other side, Nebraska's atrocious defense squares off against Michigan State's lack-luster offense. Brian Lewerke is not likely to play at QB for State, so they'll be missing a big play-maker for another game. It's going to be fun to watch this game for my last Husker home game as a college student, and I know Nebraska's going to win. There doesn't need to be any analysis, you just know it's going to happen. Adrian and the offense score just enough to make up another poor defensive performance and Nebraska wins 33-27.
Now for some quick hit predictions on other games around the nation:
Wisconsin at Purdue- This game honestly means nothing now as Northwestern has already won the division, but still an interesting match-up. Jeff Brohm may be jumping ship and headed to Louisville, so you've got to wonder what the Purdue locker room is feeling like, especially after getting whacked by Minnesota last week. I like the Badgers and their ground attack in this game, I don't think Purdue can slow them down. Badgers 34, Boilermakers 17.
USC at UCLA- The battle for LA takes place in Pasadena as the Trojans and the Bruins square off. Chip Kelly is looking for his first victory in this rivalry, but USC has a lot of talent to over come. UCLA has been steadily improving this season, but I think Clay Helton has a statement to make for his job this week. Trojans win 38-28.
Arizona State at Oregon- The Sun Devils are fighting to win the Pac-12 South but have two tough games to finish of the season. The first of the two comes in Autzen stadium as they take on Justin Herbert and the Ducks. Oregon and ASU both have a lot of offense, so this could be a shootout. This one is tough, but I think the Sun Devils are really playing good football right now. Sun Devils with a BIG road win 37-34.
#23 Utah State at Colorado State- This one won't be close, but I just want everyone to take notice of Jordan Love and the Utah State Aggies. This team averages nearly 52 points per game and over 515 yards of offense per game. K.J. Carta-Samuels will do some damage for the Rams, but Utah State shows why they will not be a fun bowl game opponent with a 49-17 victory.
Thank you all for reading my Gameday predictions and now time to sit back and watch the chaos! GO BIG RED!
#CFBKnowItAll
Alex Fernando
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