Happy Thanksgiving Football fans and welcome to the best weekend of the year! Food, family, friends and football, there's nothing better. Plus we have an incredible slate of games this weekend with a lot on the line. This post will highlight all the big rivalry games of the week and all the impact they will have on the College Football Playoffs. I'm going to skip over my reflection of the Husker game last week because it's all the same issues, bad special teams, questionable play calls and just a frustrating one-score loss. We'll see if things can change this week, but you've got to read the predictions to find out!
Week 12 Record: 11 - 4
Overall Record: 125 - 68
#9 Ole Miss at Mississippi State (The Egg Bowl)
We start our rivalry weekend tonight with the Egg Bowl as the 9th ranked Rebels travel to Starkville. On paper, both teams shake out to be pretty even. There should be a lot of points going up on the board as these QBs can light it up. Rebel QB Matt Corral has 3,100 passing yards with 19 TDs and just 3 picks. Will Rogers for the Bulldogs nearly doubles that with 34 TDs and 8 picks to go along with more than 4,100 yards in the air raid attack. This is always a bitter rivalry and there's an outside shot at a New Year's Six Bowl for Lane Kiffin's squad. You know Mike Leach and the Bulldogs are itching to spoil that, so I'm taking Mississippi State in the Egg Bowl 37-35.
Washington State at Washington (The Apple Cup)
Despite an up an down season, the Coogs have a shot at representing the North division in the PAC-12 Championship. They need a little help from the Beavers tomorrow, but first they need to beat the Huskies in Seattle. Washington State hasn't won in Seattle since 2007 though, and the Huskies have a 7-game win streak in this rivalry. Washington is favored in this game, but are on a 3 game skid, losing some close games to Oregon, ASU and Colorado. Their defense has kept them in games, giving up just 21 points per game on average. Unfortunately for the Cougars, they always fall short against the Huskies and that will keep them out of the PAC-12 Championship yet again. Huskies win the Apple Cup yet again 26-17.
Boise State at #21 San Diego State
The Broncos can end up with a 3-way tie atop the Mountain West Mountain Division if they knock off San Diego State and Air Force and Utah State walk out of the weekend with victories. The Aztecs are the toughest of the three matchups this weekend, as they rank #21 in the nation and can lock up the West division with a win here. Both teams have two of the toughest defenses, ranking 10th & 11th in scoring defense in the nation. Former Husker RB Greg Bell leads the rushing attack for the Aztecs, averaging nearly 5 yards per carry and with 7 TDs so far on the season. Boise State will look to expose the weak pass defense of SDSU as the Broncos average 263.5 yards per game through the air and the Aztecs give up 236.4 on average. This should be a close one down to the wire, but I think Boise State edges this one out. Broncos win to make things interesting in the West Division 27-24.
#2 Ohio State at #5 Michigan
This rivalry never needs any extra fire, but we've got plenty of it as the winner goes to the BIG 10 Championship and has an inside track to the College Football Playoffs. Traditionally, this is where Jim Harbaugh's team falls short in horrendous fashion as the Buckeyes often run wild in this game. Michigan will have a tough task slowing down the Buckeye offense as they rank first in the nation and average 47.2 points per game. The Buckeye defense has improved tremendously throughout the season, giving opposing backfields major headaches by giving up just 103 rush yards per game on average. Michigan lives by their run game as Hassan Haskins and Blake Corum lead the 15th best run game in the country. This game will come down to how well Cade McNamara can throw the ball though. He's going to be under pressure and likely behind on the scoreboard because of how fast the Buckeyes score. Last but not least the Wolverines defense needs to slow down the trio of NFL-caliber wideouts in Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Unfortunately for Michigan, that's not possible and neither is beating Ohio State for Jim Harbaugh. Buckeyes win big again 42-20.
#3 Alabama at Auburn (The Iron Bowl)
The Tigers host the Tide as the Iron Bowl takes place with low key stakes. Alabama has already wrapped up the SEC East, so this game is to ensure they keep pace for the College Football Playoffs. Auburn QB Bo Nix made some news this week by making comments suggesting the SEC officials favor Alabama, so there's probably a bit more of a target on his back than normal. On the other side, Bryce Young seems to have this offense humming now, and needs another big stat line to keep pace with C.J. Stroud for the very underwhelming 2021 Heisman race. I've got Alabama rolling big in this one 45-21.
Oregon State at #11 Oregon
The Beavers and the Ducks meet in Eugene for a rivalry game that once again carries some weight to it. More than just bragging rights in the state, the winner of this game is likely playing for a spot in the PAC-12 Title game. Oregon was demolished by the Utes in Salt Lake City last week, and despite coming home, Oregon State is hungry to be back in the spotlight. The Beavers have a very stingy defense and their run game doesn't give opposing offenses much time to utilize during their possessions. The Ducks could not stop the rushing attack of the Utes last week, so B.J. Baylor will likely give them a lot of headaches with his 6.1 yard per carry average, 1,200 yards and 12 TDs. The Beavers won last year's meeting in a surprise, so Oregon won't be caught off guard in this one. I think Anthony Brown will have a much better game, but Oregon State has a big statement to make and I think they do that in this game. THE BEAVERS win this one in Eugene 33-30.
Penn State at #12 Michigan State (Battle for the Land Grant Trophy)
The Nittany Lions have lost some close ones this season, but have a chance to finish the season with a big win over rival Michigan State. The Spartans are trying to quickly forget the beat down they received from the Buckeyes in Columbus last week, but all hopes of a BIG 10 Championship and CFB Playoffs are done. They will look to get Kenneth Walker III back on track as he had just 6 carries for 25 yards last week. Sparty does much better when they control the pace of the game, and that's done by Walker getting his yards. Penn State have been solid against the run, holding opposing teams to an average of about 130 yards per game on the ground. Sean Clifford will need to use his possessions wisely though, and convert on third down. The Nittany Lions have struggled in this area, and they've struggled to win the close games. This one could come down to the last minute, but I think Michigan State bounces back and wins a close one over Penn State. Sparty 31, Nittany Lions 27.
#14 Wisconsin at Minnesota (Battle for Paul Bunyan's Axe)
The Badgers can lock up yet another BIG 10 West division crown with yet another win over the Gophers. Wisconsin has dominated this series as of late, losing just once since 2004. They have the top ranked defense in the land, and have won seven straight since starting the season 1-3. The Gophers have been up and down, but ultimately lost their shot at the BIG 10 a couple weeks ago in the loss to Iowa. This one should be a classic BIG 10 slug fest as both teams have a heavy focus on the ground game. Wisconsin's offensive line is dominant, and they lead the way for a rising star in freshman RB Braelon Allen. He's averaging a staggering 7.6 yards per carry and is very difficult to bring down as the Huskers found out last week when he ran through an absurd number of tackles on his way to the endzone (multiple times). This game will certainly be decided by who can slow down the opposing run game, and I trust the Badgers more than the Gophers. On Wisconsin as they win 27-17.
#10 Oklahoma at #7 Oklahoma State (BEDLAM)
We've got BEDLAM in Stillwater, Oklahoma this weekend and this year's edition has CFB Playoff implications. The Sooners are in need of a statement win to rebound from the Baylor loss a couple of weeks ago while the Cowboys want to keep edging toward that top four ranking with a win here and in the Big XII Championship. The Pokes don't put up as many points as usual, but their defense ranks third in the nation as they give up fewer than 15 points per game on average. Oklahoma likes to score, and their dynamic offense led by QB Caleb Williams will certainly tests the limits of the Pokes' defense. The Sooners have struggled against teams with strong defenses, so this could be the year for Oklahoma State. They haven't won BEDLAM since 2014. A win by the Sooners would solidify their spot in the Big XII Championship game, which they have not missed since it was brought back in 2017. Oklahoma State is essentially playing to see who they want their opponent to be in the Big XII Championship, as their spot has been locked in. If they win, Baylor would get in (as long as they beat Texas Tech) because they have the head to head over Oklahoma. As usual the Cowboys give me another headache when making their pick, but in honor of my roommate Nate traveling to Stillwater for Thanksgiving with his family today, I'm taking the Cowboys in a surprising BEDLAM upset! Oklahoma State wins 30-24.
#16 Iowa at Nebraska (Hero's Game)
Despite a 5 game losing streak and a 6 win/loss difference to Iowa, the Huskers come into the game favored by 1 point. This both excites and worries me as it's looking like a very tasty glass of Kool-Aid to guzzle down. The Hawkeyes have NOT been an impressive team this season. Their defense has been solid and consistent, but the offense is abysmal. However, unlike the Husker offense, Iowa doesn't often times shoot themselves in the foot, knee, stomach, arm and head throughout the game. The Hawkeyes are very consistent and play with few mistakes. The Blackshirts need to slow them down on the ground and force Iowa to pass the ball. Neither QB has been very impressive, but it looks like Alex Padilla will get the start. On the Husker sideline, Adrian Martinez's injured shoulder will keep him out of Senior day as Logan Smothers will make his first start at QB for the Huskers. I'm anxious to see what the offense looks like with him, because Nebraska actually ranks quite high in offensive production, racking up over 450 yards per game on average. Once the Huskers cross the 20 yard line into the red zone however, all production goes out the window. It would be wonderful to spoil Iowa's season a little more and finally stop losing to a team that is more than beatable, but the Huskers always find a way to lose in the worst way possible. I imagine another special teams blunder of some sort will hold this team back, but with Smothers at QB, things could get very interesting on the offensive side of the ball as well. We may see quickly why Martinez was playing as QB1 while injured. I hope they prove me wrong because I hate losing to Iowa, but I have the Hawkeyes winning 26-24. GO BIG RED, please don't make me sad!
Quick Hit Predictions:
UTEP at UAB - The Blazers lost to the Roadrunners on a last second TD a week ago, but now get to unleash that fury on the Miners from UTEP. This one won't be pretty as the Blazers torch them 38-17.
North Carolina at #20 NC State - The Wolfpack are looking to make amend for the previous 2 years where the Tar Heels have won by multiple scores. NC State's defense is the difference in this game and they reek havoc on Sam Howell as they win 34-21.
#18 Wake Forest at Boston College - After a chomping by the Tigers last weekend, Wake Forest must win this week on the road in order to solidify their spot in the ACC Title game. Clemson can jump in because of the head to head win if the Eagles can pull off the upset win at home. Sam Hartman bounces back though and the Demon Deacons win the ACC Atlantic division for the first time since 2006. Wake Forest wins 40-24.
Texas Tech at #8 Baylor - As mentioned earlier, the Bears are rooting hard for the Cowboys to win BEDLAM, but they also need to take care of business at home first. The Red Raiders shouldn't pose too much of a threat, especially with the Bears' defense playing as well as they have. Sic 'Em as Baylor wins 35-14.
Florida State at Florida - The Sunshine Showdown is a battle for bowl eligibility as both the Seminoles and Gators are looking for their 6th win. Florida fired Dan Mullen (which is think is a terrible idea) and the team has been spiraling, losing 4 of their last 5. FSU has edged out a couple wins, but I have no idea what this game will be like. Neither team has much defense, but I'll take the 'Noles since they seem to be on the rise and the Gators are more on the fall. Florida State wins 30-27.
#15 Texas A&M at LSU - In what could be Coach O's last game at LSU, the Tigers are battling the Aggies for bowl eligibility. They've struggled in close games, and I expect both defenses to keep this one tight. I'm sure Coach O would like one more game, but it's fitting for his tenure to end in Tiger Stadium. Aggies win 24-21.
Thanks for reading all of my Rivalry Week Predictions and have a Happy Thanksgiving! GO BIG RED!
#CFBKnowItAll
Alex Fernando
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