Week 11 Predictions

Hello Football Friends and welcome to Week 11! Despite the BYE week for the Huskers, there’s been plenty of news around the football team and I’ve got a full break down on that along with Ohio State. I’ll also give my predictions on all the games to keep an eye on this weekend. I’ve got a big post today with all sorts of content, so let’s dive right in!

 

Starting with the Huskers, I’ll give my GOOD, EXPECTED and BAD from the Ohio State game. Then I’ll break down the changes to Scott Frost’s contract and the changes to the Husker Football Coaching staff.

 

GOOD – The Husker defense and especially JoJo Doman. The Blackshirts stepped up big once again, and I’ll be honest, I was not expecting them to. I thought they had fallen off after some sub-par performances against the Gophers and Boilermakers, but Ohio State was held under 100 yards rushing and was forced to kick 4 field goals. They did give up 405 passing yards to the Buckeyes, but the Huskers kept everything in front of them and most importantly kept their team in the game until the very end. The defense has performed well for a majority of the season, and one of the leaders on this unit has been JoJo Doman. Earlier this week he announced his retirement from the Huskers as he is likely looking to get healthy before moving onto the next level. Some fans may be a bit biffed by the fact he won’t finish out the season with his team, but he gave more than enough to the Huskers during his career. Especially this year, Doman has racked up 44 solo tackles, 2 sacks, 2 forced fumbles and 2 interceptions. A great way to end his career at UNL and all the best to him as he hopefully moves onto the NFL.

 

EXPECTED – Special Teams screwing Nebraska over. Of course, immediately after I give Chase Contreraz his props, he goes 1/3 on field goals. A frightening statistic I saw reported over the weekend was that special teams has directly cost Nebraska 37 points this season, and the Huskers have lost all of their games by a combined 42. The 13-yard punts, lack of any ability to set up a return and most importantly the missed field goals are unacceptable when you’re in year 4 of developing a program. There will be some misses or shanks here and there, but the fact that it’s an issue in every game of the season shows it is not being addressed in practice and that’s probably because there is not a designated special teams coordinator on this staff. Mike Dawson may have that title thrown on top of his position at linebackers coach, but it’s clear there’s no focus on the special teams unit.

 

BAD – Husker offense. Apparently the starting QB for the Husker offense has both a broken Jaw (for over a month now) and a high ankle sprain. Props to Adrian for gutting it out, but why the hell would you play an athlete with those kinds of injuries? This cannot be helpful to offensive production and it showed yet again as the Huskers failed to finish drives and missed multiple opportunities to take control of a game that didn’t have much in terms of momentum swings. It was nice to see Samori Toure get the ball as he racked up 150 yards and a TD through the air, but late in the game when the Huskers needed a big drive with points, Toure wasn’t given the ball much. Another star player who doesn’t get the ball enough, Austin Allen, was standing on the sidelines for that dive because there is no offensive game plan to get him the ball despite his incredible athletic abilities. Poor use of talent is a primary reason why the Huskers have struggled so much the last few years.

My thoughts on the restructured contract of Scott Frost are quite simple, it was very obvious. I wasn’t surprised when it was announced that he would return next year, but I’m glad to see Alberts finally holding his feet to the fire. It’s good to see changes to the offensive coaching staff, but I’d like to see a Special Teams Coordinator hired along with a new recruitment staff. We’ll see if this extra year can help change things and turn it around.

 

 

Now let’s get to the game predictions for this week!

 

Week 10 Results: 10 - 5

Overall Results: 107 – 58

 

 

#6 Michigan at Penn State

The Wolverines travel to Happy Valley to take on the Nittany Lions. For absolutely no reason at all they’ve been ranked #6 by the College Football Playoff Committee, ahead of Michigan State at #7 who beat them just two weeks ago. Despite that, Michigan plans to keep pace in the BIG 10 East by rolling through Penn State with their ground game. Hassan Haskins will be the feature back as Corum did not make the trip. He's been tough to slow down this year, but Penn State does have a tough defense. Both teams are giving up around 16 points per game, so the offenses will need to make the most of their opportunities. The difference maker is Penn State’s inability to run the ball. This gives Michigan the edge on time of possession, and as long as they can get pressure on Sean Clifford, they should be able to get out with a victory. Wolverines survive thanks to some big plays on defense 24-21.

 

 

#8 Oklahoma at #13 Baylor

The Sooners haven’t had a terrible amount of competition throughout the season this year, but that changes for the last few weeks as they kick off a Big XII Gauntlet with a road trip to Waco. The Bears stumbled last week against TCU, and need a big win to stay in the hunt for a Big XII Championship. As most matchups in this conference go, I would expect a lot of points. Caleb Williams looks to be the real deal for Oklahoma, racking up nearly 1,200 passing yards and 14 TDs in just 3.5 games. Baylor’s defense struggled mightily against the pass last week and I don’t expect that to change. Sooners win this shootout 47-33.

 

 

#19 Purdue at #4 Ohio State

The giant killers are looking for their next victim as the Boilermakers travel to the Horseshoe ready to take down the Buckeyes. I am very much rooting for the Spoilermakers to go 3 for 3 on top 5 opponents this season, but everyone will be looking for it. However, they are playing some fantastic defense, and the Buckeyes did not look very impressive against Nebraska last week. Having attended that game, I was constantly questioning the play call decisions made by Ryan Day and company. Ohio State still racked up over 400 yards passing, but was held to just 26 points, did not crack 100 rushing and only took a couple of deep shots down the field. If Purdue can stifle the Buckeyes run game things could get interesting. Aiden O’Connell will need to keep hold of the rock and play at a high level against an aggressive and fast Ohio State defense. David Bell needs to be the focal point of the offense complimented by the run game with Horvath and Doerue. Unfortunately, I think the talent of Ohio State will outlast the Boilermakers and Ryan Day will be looking to make a statement in this game. I like things for Purdue if they can keep the ball away from the Buckeye offense, but I think Ohio State will win this game 30-17.

 

 

Minnesota at #20 Iowa (Battle for the Floyd of Rosedale)

We stay in the BIG 10 Conference as there is a Bronze Pig on the line in Iowa City. The Gophers and Hawkeyes meet as they battle for not only Floyd, but the top spot in the BIG 10 West as well. This could turn into an interesting game as Iowa has shown their true colors the last few weeks. Minnesota has been up and down all season long. They will be looking to rise back up today as they need to bounce back quickly from their very bad loss to Illinois at home last week. Against Iowa they will need to force the Hawkeyes to pass. Iowa benched QB Spencer Petras last week, so we’ll see if that change is permanent or not. Either way, Tyler Goodsen cannot have a big day if Minnesota wants Floyd to come home with them. Unfortunately, I think this will be one of those dumb games that Iowa wins because of all the mistakes made by the other team. Iowa wins the pig as they beat the Gophers 27-21.

 

 

#11 Texas A&M at #15 Ole Miss

    The Aggies need some help, but still have a shot at the SEC West division. They need to fend off a feisty Lane Kiffin offense in order to do so, but that’s easier said than done. Ole Miss hasn’t played well against teams with a tough defense, but if they can turn this game into a shootout the odds certainly shift into their favor. A&M has struggled to put up points, so this should be a unique game to watch. The Aggies did handle Auburn pretty well last week though, so I’m giving them the edge on the road. Texas A&M wins this one with defense 28-20.

 

 

 #9 Notre Dame at Virginia

The Irish travel to Charlottesville to take on the Cavaliers in a sneaky game that could be dangerous for Notre Dame. Virginia can put up points, and their air attack averages over 400 yards per game. If the Irish get caught in a shootout, things could get ugly. Notre Dame has the better defense in this one, but their offense might not be able to keep pace with Brennan Armstrong's 3,500+ yards and 27 TDs. Virginia's defense needs to step up big if they want to pull this upset. I think they're going to pull it off. A little night game magic and the Cavaliers upset Notre Dame in a barnburner 41-38.

#16 NC State at #12 Wake Forest

The Demon Deacons may not be undefeated any more, but they still have the inside track to winning the ACC. They host a hungry Wolfpack who are always looking for an upset. NC State has one of the best defenses in the nation, ranking 19th in total defense and giving up just an average of 16 points. They'll need to slow down a red hot Wake Forest offense that averages 44.7 points per game, good for second best in the nation. Devin Leary and the Wolfpack offense have been good this year too, putting up 31 points per game. I think Wake Forest is going to bounce back and get this victory at home. Demon Deacons win a thriller 39-35.

Nevada at #22 San Diego State

Out in the Mountain West, the Wolfpack and the Aztecs battle for the top spot in the division. This game should be a fun night cap as it features one of the conferences best offenses against one of the best defenses. Nevada's air raid attack averages over 375 yards per game behind the big arm of Carson Strong. He's thrown for 3,197 yards with 25 TDs and just 7 picks this season. San Diego State has their work cut out for them , but often play some lockdown defense, giving up just 300 yards per game. This could really go either way, but I'm going to stick with my preseason pick and take Nevada to win this game 31-28.

Quick Hit Predictions:

Mississippi State at #17 Auburn - The Bulldogs are looking to play spoiler as they are one game away from bowl eligibility, but the Tigers need a bounce back win from getting thrashed by A&M. Auburn wins it at home 33-21.

West Virginia at Kansas State - The Mountaineers need to turn it on late in the season to reach a bowl game, but taking on the Cats in Bill Snyder Family Stadium is not usually a good way to do that. Both of these teams have been very up and down, but I'll take the home team as K-State wins 24-21.

UCF at SMU - The Ponies have dropped their last two games and now host a Golden Knight Team that could send this game into another shootout. I think SMU hangs on to win this one late, but they need a big performance from QB Tanner Mordecai. Mustangs win 48-41.

Iowa State at Texas Tech - The Red Raiders can get bowl eligible with an upset win over the Cyclones today, but Iowa State is still hanging to a chance of making it back to the Big XII Championship. They need this win to stay in the race and Matt Campbell should have his team ready. ISU 31, TTU 17.

Arkansas at LSU - A Golden Boot is on the line as the Tigers host the Hogs. Arkansas' offensive production has dropped off significantly in the second half the season, and they're going up against an LSU defense that just held Alabama to 20 points. The Tigers are fighting to send Coach O out on a high note with a bowl game, and it starts with this game right here. Tigers win the Golden Boot trophy at home, chomping the Hogs 30-20.

I hope you enjoyed reading all my reflections and predictions. Enjoy your Week 11 of College Football and as always... GO BIG RED!

#CFBKnowItAll

Alex Fernando