Hello Football readers and welcome to late November College Football! We're in the best time of year as the games have a lot on the line and those big hits are just different in that crisp November air. We've got a great slate of games to watch as the regular season draws to the end and we push toward the Conference Championships and College Football Playoffs. Kick back, relax and let's enjoy some football!
Week 11 Record: 7 - 6
Overall Record: 114 - 64
#7 Michigan State at #4 Ohio State
I kick off the predictions this week with arguably the biggest game of the weekend as the Spartans and Buckeyes meet in the Horseshoe to ultimately decide the BIG 10 West Division. Michigan is still in the mix, but all eyes will be on Columbus Saturday morning as Sparty tries to knock off Ohio State. Despite both teams putting up fairly similar numbers this season, the Buckeyes are a 19 point favorite in this game. The run game will be a major factor in this game as Heisman hopeful Kenneth Walker III looks to continue his dominant November. The Ohio State rush defense could struggle to slow him down as Walker is averaging 6.5 yards per carry. If Ohio State can force Michigan State into third and long, the game will rely on Payton Thorne's arm. He's been serviceable this season but is certainly not the focal point of the offense for a reason. On the flip side, Ohio State will need to establish more of a run game to keep the pressure of C.J. Stroud as Sparty is likely to blitz. Luckily for Ohio State, the Spartans ranks dead last in pass defense, so the NFL talent wideouts Stroud will be throwing to should have a big day. This is the primary factor to watch because if MSU can't get their ground game going, they can't keep Stroud and the offense on the sidelines. Closer than experts think, but the Buckeyes win this one 31-21.
#10 Wake Forest at Clemson
The Demon Deacons can clinch a spot in the ACC Championship game with a victory over the reigning 6-time ACC Champion Clemson Tigers. Despite losing to UNC just a couple weeks ago, Wake Forest is still undefeated in ACC play because of a weird setup in their rivalry where due to some scheduling needs, their game in 2019 along with the one a couple of weeks ago took place outside of the conference and did not impact the conference records of each team. This is favorable for Wake Forest as they are looking at fighting back into the playoff conversation, but the only way to do that is by winning out with an ACC Championship. Clemson poses a number of threats to that though, as they still have a top notch defense giving up just 15.3 points per game. The Tiger offense has had a number of issues this year, but have a chance to put up some points against a very poor Wake Forest defense. The Demon Deacons are nearly impossible to stop on offense however, and Clemson let Kenny Pickett and Pitt throw for over 300 yards and 2 TDs on them. Wake has an even more dynamic passing attack, and I think they upset Clemson on the road! Demon Deacons win a fun one 34-28.
Iowa State at #13 Oklahoma
Over in the Big XII, Oklahoma looks to rebound from their first loss of the season. For some odd reason, the College Football Playoff Committee ranked Baylor ahead of Oklahoma after the victory last week. I didn't know we were back to having head to head victories matter (because it still doesn't matter with Michigan and Michigan State), but whatever. The Sooner offense struggled mightily against the Bears' defense last week. Caleb Williams threw two interceptions, and the team had just 260 total yards. Iowa State battled back late but couldn't overcome Texas Tech last week. The Cyclones have been very inconsistent in 2021. Oklahoma should bounce back a bit quicker and win this game at home 33-28.
#21 Arkansas at #2 Alabama
The Hogs travel to Tuscaloosa as Alabama looks to clinch their spot in the SEC Championship. The Tide haven't looked like their usual dominance this season, and Arkansas has some talent on offense that can cause headaches for the opponents. Bryce Young has been one of the best in the nation this season though, and the talent should outlast Arkansas in this matchup. Things could be interesting early on, but I would expect Alabama to take control of this game sometime in the third quarter if they don't already have it. Tide Roll as they win 38-21.
SMU at #5 Cincy
The Ponies and the Bearcats meet this afternoon for possibly the last true test Cincy will face during the regular season. They've had a couple of scares lately, and SMU is not one they should overlook. The Playoff Committee is waiting for a statement game from the Bearcats, so this is their best chance. SMU loves to air it out, averaging just under 280 per game from the passing attack. The QB battle between Tanner Mordecai and Desmond Ridder will be a key factor in this game. Both QBs are very talented and use their experience well. Neither turn the ball over as Mordecai has 10 picks this year and Ridder has just 6. Cincy has a tough defense, but they've shown cracks lately, and SMU will look to take advantage of those. Desmond Ridder is a winner though, and I think he's going to have a big day against SMU's defense. They will struggle to contain him and the Bearcats win this one 34-21.
UAB at #22 UTSA
The Blazers are looking to upset and torch the Roadrunners as they meet for a Conference USA battle that will determine who wins the West Division. UAB has won the division crown the last 3 years, and claimed the conference title 2 of those years as well. UTSA is the cinderella of 2021 as the Roadrunners are ranked #22 in the nation and unbeaten at 10-0. Both teams have a solid defense, giving up around 20 points per game each. The offenses will have their work cut out for them. UTSA racks up a lot of yards and points, and in true Roadrunner fashion, they're just hard to slow down. I think this offense has a big day and makes a big statement win today with a 33-21 victory.
#9 Oklahoma State at Texas Tech
A potential trap game awaits the Cowboys as they travel to Lubbock to take on the Red Raiders. I think this is a trap game because BEDLAM is on the horizon, and after their victory last week, the Red Raiders are more than happy to play spoiler. This game could turn up quick as both teams can put up points fairly quick. The Pokes have a much better defense, and they've held their last 3 opponents to a combined 23 points. They will create havoc in the backfield and look to force turnovers as the Red Raiders sit at -5 in the turnover margin. Oklahoma State may have a scare early, but they win this game 30-20.
#3 Oregon at #23 Utah
A likely matchup for the PAC-12 Championship in just a couple weeks takes place early tonight as the Ducks travel to Salt Lake City to take on the Utes. This is always one of the best PAC-12 games between these two teams, and this chapter should not disappoint. The Ducks have been winning since their stumble to Stanford early in the year, but their wins haven't been very impressive. Now they have to go into the lion's den essentially as Utah is one of the best teams at home in the last decade. They have a very tough defense and will look to slow down the fast-paced ducks. Anthony Brown will need to be flawless today as Kyle Whittingham and his crew will be vicious. A loss for the Ducks opens the door for the Beavers to sneak into the PAC-12 Championship in their game next week, but I don't think Oregon wants that to happen. The Utes are favored, but I like Oregon as the road underdog in this game. Big win for the Ducks as they edge out Utah 27-24.
Nebraska at #15 Wisconsin
My beloved Cornhuskers are back in action today after a newsworthy week off where Scott Frost's contract was restructured and nearly the entire offensive staff was let go. This is certainly a step in the right direction for the Huskers, but I don't think it will have a drastic impact on the remainder of this season. I'm still waiting for this team to prove me wrong and win another game this season. Wisconsin poses a tough challenge as Nebraska has not beat the Badgers since 2012. There have been a couple games that game down to the wire, but most with Wisconsin go south fairly quick. Yet again the Badgers have a dominant defense and a nearly unstoppable rushing attack. Their offensive line paves the way as opposing defenses are usually on their heels. The Blackshirts have been a sturdy defense in 2021, holding teams to an average of 20 points per game. They force a lot of field goals, but very rarely have help from their offense to make it meaningful. I'm sure the Blackshirts will play with pride and force Wisconsin to use their passing game more than they'd like, but the true key to victory is Nebraska's offense scoring points. I'm guessing Martinez will be banged up out there, so they won't use their best weapon in his legs, and that means he'll drop back 25-30+ a game to pass. This is never a good recipe for success and with a brick wall sitting in front of the Huskers' run game in Wisconsin's defense, it could be a long afternoon. I hope some of the changes that were made over the BYE week show some hints of progress, but Wisconsin should walk out with yet another victory in the Freedom Game. On Wisconsin as the Badgers win 27-17.
Quick Hit Predictions:
Texas at West Virginia - After losing to Kansas last week, Texas is the centerpiece of conversation. Both squads in this game are looking to keep their bowl eligibility alive. One of my only solaces with Husker football being bad is that Texas is also bad. Unfortunately I think they win this one 30-24.
Virginia at #18 Pitt - The Cavaliers are hoping to get their QB Brennan Armstrong back. He missed the Notre Dame game last week and it was very obvious as their usually dynamic offense racked up just 3 points. Defensively they have to deal with the veteran Kenny Pickett, and that is going to be too much as Pitt wins 40-21.
UCLA at USC - The Battle for LA doesn't have any big implications, but it's certainly a rivalry that never disappoints. The Trojans are looking to move one game closer to bowl eligibility, but Chip Kelley doesn't want to fall behind in this series. UCLA wins a bit of a shootout 38-33.
#11 Baylor at Kansas State - The Bears and their rugged defense upset Oklahoma last week, but now travel to Bill Snyder Family Stadium. K-State is never a great place to come in feeling high, but I like the Bears in this one. The Wildcats will cause headaches for sure, but Baylor's defense rises up again and Gerry Bohanon has another big day as Baylor wins 26-17.
Cal at Stanford - This is a very old rivalry, but it is very low key this year as neither team has been impressive. I'll always side with David Shaw though, and Stanford wins "The Game" 26-23.
Arizona State at Oregon State - Both teams need help from the Oregon-Utah to stay alive in their respective divisional hunts, but a win in this game is the other key to that crown. Arizona State has been skirting by the last couple weeks after a rough end to October while the Beavers lost 3 games they really shouldn't have. Late at night, up in Corvallis, weird things tend to happen. Beavers win this one 35-28.
Thanks for reading my Week 12 Predictions and GO BIG RED!
#CFBKnowItAll
Alex Fernando
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