December 31st - January 4th Bowl Games & CFP Round 2

      Welcome to the final week of Bowl Games! Holiday travels once again had me miss a game, but we all know I wouldn't pick Iowa to win. This post has a full slate with the rest of the Bowl Games along with my predictions for Round 2 of the College Football Playoffs. No time to waste, so let's get to the picks.

ReliaQuest Bowl

#11 Alabama vs Michigan

     We kick things off with a rematch of last year's semi-final game in the Rose Bowl between Alabama and Michigan. While we may not get all the fireworks from last year's matchup, this game has potential to spark some HEATED debates throughout College Football social media. With all the complaints that Alabama should be in over Indiana and SMU following round 1, the SEC faithful better pray this game doesn't go the way of the Wolverines. We saw Michigan absolutely smash Ohio State at the line of scrimmage, giving up just 77 rush yards in that win. Alabama's success this season has gone almost entirely with the performance of QB Jalen Milroe. His up and down play throughout the year has been difficult to overcome in some games, leading to their 9-3 record with 3 conference losses all on the road. He's expected to play in this one, and should have an opportunity to shine as Michigan will be missing a few key players who are opting out ahead of the NFL draft. Defensive Tackle Mason Graham is the big name that will be missing, but their lackluster offense will also be without Kalel Mullings and Donovan Edwards, the top two rushing threats for the Wolverines. I still like the Maize & Blue to stifle up the run game a bit more than Bama would like, but unfortunately the firepower leans the way of the tide. Michigan can certainly cause headaches, but Bama will get revenge for last season. Roll Tide 23-14. I would love to see all the SEC fans handle a Bama loss in this game though.

Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl

Louisville vs Washington

     Jeff Brohm's second season in Louisville didn't quite follow the hype of the first one, but with all 4 losses coming by 1 score, the Cardinals are just on the edge of breaking into the top ranks. They'll take on a Washington team that followed up a National Championship appearance with a 6-6 record. This was obviously impacted by the departure of HC Kalen Deboer and a number of impact players leaving, but I think Jedd Fisch has things moving in the right direction after his first season. The Huskies ranked 40th in scoring defense, allowing just 22.8 points per game and are +3 in turnover margin. Good signs as they head into year 2 with the BIG 10 conference. For this game, both teams will be missing a number of key defensive players who have left for the portal, and their starting QBs from throughout the season. Washington Freshman QB Demond Williams Jr. has played a bit throughout the season, but stepped in against Oregon and played well with 201 yards and 1 TD through the air. Hopefully he'll have RB Jonah Coleman to support him. For the Cardinals, there won't be many options for offensive production as QB Tyler Shough, top WR Ja'Corey Brooks and other offensive weapons are all opting out or in the portal. The ACC has not faired well in Bowl Games, so give me a BIG 10 victory with the Huskies winning behind rising star Demond Williams Jr. 27-21.

Cheez-It Citrus Bowl

#15 South Carolina vs #20 Illinois

     South Carolina was one of the hottest teams making a push through the back half of the season, winning 6 straight games to finish things out. Close losses to LSU & Alabama kept them from being a top team in the SEC, but they're a young team with a lot of their production coming back. It all starts with QB LaNorris Sellers who nearly 3,000 total yards and 24 total TDs. The freshman QB was dynamic for the Gamecocks this year and should cause a number of headaches to the Illinois defense who gave up over 220 rushing yards to both Oregon and Penn State earlier this season. The Illini did receive good news as QB Luke Altmeyer will be returning for next season, but he'll be without star wideout Pat Bryant in this bowl game. It would be great to have another BIG 10 victory in this game, but I don't know if the Illini have the gumption to stop Sellers and company. They won't have to deal with RB Raheim (Rocket) Sanders or Defensive End Kyle Kennard from South Carolina, but I like the Gamecocks to win here. South Cackalacky 30, Illinois 17.

Kinder's Texas Bowl

Baylor vs LSU

     A very surprising season from the Baylor Bear lands them in a bowl game with a very frustrating season from LSU. The Tigers opened things up in 2024 with a last second loss to USC, and then had 6-game winning streak until they were thoroughly beat down by Texas A&M, Alabama & Florida in a 3-game run. The Tigers will have QB Garrett Nussmeier returning in 2025, but many of his weapons and protections will change, even for this bowl game. LSU is hit hard by the portal and players opting out for the NFL draft, so Brian Kelly will be looking for younger players to step up. Nussmeier has plenty of arm to push the ball down the field, but despite Baylor's 85th ranked pass defense, they do have 13 interceptions on the season. Three of those picks are from Safety Corey Gordon Jr. who has left for the transfer portal, but don't sleep on Dave Aranda having a good scheme built up for this one. Offensively, for the Bears, QB Sawyer Robertson took over the starting job (despite favored QB Dequan Finn from Toledo expecting to be the guy) and played very well this season, throwing for 2,626 yards with 26 TDs and 7 picks. He added another 4 TDs on the ground and will certainly give LSU headaches as they struggled with dual threat QBs late in the season on that 3-game losing skid. Dave Aranda will also be against a school he coached at previously, helping the Tigers win the 2019 National Championship as the Defensive Coordinator. This would be a major statement win for Aranda and the Bears, but a serious concerning loss for Brian Kelly and the Tigers. Something tells me things need to heat up a bit in Baton Rouge so give me the Bears for a fun win and some offseason drama being sparked. Sic 'Em 34-31.

Tax Slayer Gator Bowl

Duke vs #14 Ole Miss

     No one has been more vocal on their team being one of the best not to be included in the 12-team playoff than Rebels HC Lane Kiffin. Leading up to the Tennessee/Ohio State game, Kiffin made it very well known his team would have been a stronger opponent and likely even the victor in each of the first 3 playoff games. His phone must have stopped working after watching Tennessee get throttled by Ohio State, because we haven't heard another word from him, but nonetheless, this is is prove it moment. There are a number of key players on defense opting out of this game as they've already committed to other schools in the transfer portal, but Jaxson Dart is expected to play. He'll likely be without some of his top receiving threats, and the Blue Devils rank 35th in passing defense so that will be an interesting saga to watch. Unfortunately for Manny Diaz and the Duke faithful, starting QB Maalik Murphy has decided to transfer again (now to Oregon State). Murphy racked up 2,933 yards with 26 TDs and 12 picks on the year for the Blue Devils, while also adding 2 more TDs on the ground. The ex-Longhorn/Blue Devil will be replaced by Sophomore Henry Belin IV who has 1 career attempt and completion for 7 yards. This will be a bit of a trail by fire before Tulane transfer Darian Mensah comes in next season with his reported $8 million dollar NIL deal. I think Ole Miss should take care of things here, but beating an under-manned Duke team does not mean you should be in the playoffs. Win your regular season games. Rebels 38, Blue Devils 17.

SERVPRO First Responders Bowl

North Texas vs Texas State

     Unfortunately this game won't have much spark to it as a majority of the star players from each team are all off to new schools via the transfer portal. This is certainly a double-edged sword because it's great these players will get the opportunity to compete at a Power 4 level, but it practically decimates the G5 teams they're leaving, especially for Bowl Season. With so many starters on both sides of the ball out, it's really difficult to make any well-analyzed predictions. I'll take Texas State as the Mean Green had to beat Temple by 7 in the finale to get to this bowl game. Bobcats win 34 - 24 and be sure to watch for names like QB Chandler Morris (NT -> UVA), WR DT Sheffield (NT -> Rutgers), TE Oscar Hammond (NT -> Oregon State), RT, Alex Harkey (TS -> Oregon), RB Ismail Mahdi (TS -> Arizona) and DB Josh Eaton (TS -> Michigan State) at their new schools next year. 

Duke's Mayo Bowl

Minnesota vs Virginia Tech

     All but 1 loss for PJ Fleck and the Gophers came by 1 score this season, and their rugged defense ranked 10th in scoring, allowing just 17.5 points per game. Virginia Tech had a number of close calls of their own, losing 5 of their 6 by 1 score. I would expect this one to be close after both teams have battled all season, but one key stat stands out in this game. Third downs will determine this game because while the Gophers allow opponents to convert 39.75% of them, Virginia Tech is not far ahead allowing 39.55%. Flipping to each team's conversion rates, the Hokies are converting just over 37% while the Gophers are ranked 18th in the nation with 46.2%. If Minnesota can stay ahead of the chains and keep their run game going with RB Bhayshul Tuten (1,159 yards, 15 TDs & 6.3 ypc), they should find a path to victory. Virginia Tech has also been hit harder by the portal with multiple starters committing to other schools in the transfer portal. Give me another BIG 10 over ACC win as the Gophers take it 26-21.

Bahamas Bowl

Buffalo vs Liberty

     The Bulls and the Flames meet in the Bahamas as the rest of us experience a polar weather set for early January. Liberty has a number of key players who have left in the transfer portal, but the biggest name is star QB Kaidon Salter who signed with the Prime Time Buffaloes. The school named Buffalo doesn't have many players leaving and are riding a 4-game win streak. I'll take the Bulls to win 38-20 in the Bahamas.

College Football Playoffs: Round 2

VRBO Fiesta Bowl

#6 Penn State vs #3 Boise State

     The first game of round 2 for the College Football Playoffs takes place in the desert as Penn State and Boise State meet in the Fiesta Bowl. Both teams have a lot of good history with this game as the Nittany Lions are 7-0 all time and the Broncos (very famously) are 3-0. Someone will have their first Fiesta Bowl loss tonight, and all eyes will be on Ashton Jeanty. Especially after Colorado was demolished by BYU and Travis Hunter was looking scared to make tackles, Jeanty has an even bigger stage to prove why he should have the Heisman trophy. He'll be up against the toughest run defense he's faced this season as Penn State ranks 7th allowing just 100 yards per game on the ground. They were gifted a few touchdowns from SMU as Kevin Jennings threw some pick sixes, but I think Boise's offense is ready for this moment. Utilizing Ashton Jeanty in the passing game will help alleviate some pressure and open up QB Maddux Madsen to start slinging it. He's got just 3 picks on the season, so if he can keep that number same by the time 2025 starts, Boise will be in good shape. For the Nittany Lions, Drew Allar and company have to be ready for a heavy pass rush. Boise State's defense has vulnerabilities, but they rank 2nd in the nation with 51 sacks, averaging just under 4 per game. Penn State's protection is strong, but Boise will be looking to keep them behind the chains and force some 3rd and longs. SMU did not live up to my upset predictions against Penn State, but Boise is better known for those. I'm still not convinced Penn State is the team to make a full championship run, but they always seem to beat the teams of lower talent. Jeanty is not a lower talent though, and I'm taking the Broncos behind a REAL Heisman performance with Ashton Jeanty. Boise State with another Fiesta Bowl shocker 29-27.

Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl

#5 Texas vs #4 Arizona State

     Round 2's most predicted victory already has Texas waiting in the semi-finals according to most analysts. Arizona State is out-manned as they come into Atlanta without their leading receiver Jordyn Tyson. The did play without him in the Big XII Championship, but the Longhorn defense does pose a few more threats. Starting up front, they have 41 sacks on the season, so protection of QB Sam Leavitt will be key if the Sun Devils want to sustain drives. They will need to establish the run game, which isn't often difficult when you hand the ball to Cam Skattebo. He's also a dangerous weapon in the passing game, so Texas will need to key on him no matter where he goes on the field. Defensively for the Sun Devils, they need to stop the run. Quinn Ewers is prone to mistakes and if Arizona State can force more third down scenarios where they can potentially force turnovers due to longer throws, they could make this game interesting. The Sun Devils are +14 in turnover margin and have 15 picks on the season. I think many of the analysts are overlooking this team, especially when Texas' defense was torched for 336 yards through the air by Clemson last week. Look for Skattebo to have a big game, but I will lean to the Longhorns as their defense is eventually just overwhelming for opponents. There are multiple rumors of Quinn Ewers being offered multi-million dollar NIL deals despite still playing in the Playoffs right now, so we'll see what happens there. I don't think we'll see him in a Texas or an NFL uniform next season, but for now, he leads the Longhorns to a tougher win that most thought possible. Texas 31, Arizona State 21.

Rose Bowl

#8 Ohio State vs #1 Oregon

     The Granddaddy of them all once again features a BIG 10 and (former) PAC-12 matchup as Ohio State and Oregon meet for the second time this season. The Buckeyes looked like the best team in the nation against Tennessee, racking up 473 total yards and 42 points on the Vols. In the first meeting with Oregon, the Buckeyes had 467 yards while Oregon had 492, but turnovers played a big part as Ohio State lost two fumbles. This game is expected to be the best of round 2, and I hope we get the best of both teams. If Ohio State brings the team from against Tennessee, they'll be in good shape. Amazingly, they actually threw to their star wide receivers and had tremendous success when their best players had the ball in their hands. Shocking, I know, but expect more dynamic passing attacks as they challenge the Ducks 9th ranked pass defense. Oregon is coming off their BYE from the first round after beating Penn State 45-37 in the BIG 10 Championship. Drew Allar threw for 226 with 3 TDs and 2 picks in that game, so success through the air is possible against the Ducks. Offensively though, few teams have been able to slow down Oregon. Heisman Finalist Dillon Gabriel has been stellar this season at QB for the Ducks, completing 73.2% of his passes and utilizing his legs to keep from taking many sacks, only 13 all year. Senior wideout Tez Johnson is a very dangerous downfield threat, but as usual for the Ducks, my key player is RB Jordan James. He always seems to have the big run at the right time and can keep the chains moving for Oregon. Ohio State didn't have to deal with star RB Dylan Sampson from Tennessee due to his injury, but James will bring a punch to the Buckeye defense they didn't see in the first round. I'll have to break my rule of not wanting to play a team twice in the same season, but I think Dan Lanning and Oregon have things rolling in the right direction. Another Rose Bowl thriller as the Ducks edge out the Buckeyes 27-24.

Allstate Sugar Bowl

#7 Notre Dame vs #2 Georgia

     The final game of round 2 features the Fighting Irish against the Georgia Bulldogs. Despite their first round BYE, the Bulldogs won't be fully healthy as starting QB Carson Beck had surgery following an injury suffered against Texas in the SEC Championship. Sophomore QB Gunner Stockton will step in and attempt to lead Georgia to the semi-final round. His rushing ability opens up some new opportunities in the offensive play calling, but Notre Dame's defense is not an easy one to navigate. They will be without star defensive lineman Rylie Mills, so there could be a few more rush lanes, but they often close quickly with the speed of their linebackers. Offensively for the Irish they don't bring anything spectacular to the table, but a consistent pummeling from the run game of Jeremiah Love and Riley Leonard. They lead a rushing attack that ranks 11th in the nation with nearly 225 yards per game on average. I expect this to be a low-scoring defensive match, but with an inexperienced QB, I'll take the Irish to beat Georgia. I was expecting an Oregon/Georgia finale, but I'm not sure they'll have enough to overcome the injury to Carson Beck. We'll see if they prove me wrong, but I'll take Notre Dame 20-14.

Thanks for reading my bowl and playoff predictions! Enjoy all the games and Happy New Year to all as we head into 2025 with more chaos ahead for College Football. I'll have a Husker Bowl Game/Season reflection post soon along with more playoff predictions as we move into the semi-final round.

#CFBKnowItAll

Alex Fernando

December 26 - 28 Bowl Games

      Merry Christmas Football Friends! My apologies for the delay on my predictions post and for missing a few bowl games. The schedule has been a bit hectic with holiday travel, but I wanted to make sure I got a post up ahead of the next few days as we have a tremendous slate of bowl games leading up to the College Football Playoff Quarterfinals. For the record, I went 0-3 on the bowl games I missed in this post as I picked Coastal, Fresno and San Jose State on my bowl sheet. Luckily I didn't write anything about those picks and we're going to move quickly past my disaster of SMU beating Penn State. Onto the picks for the bowl games starting today!

Current Bowl Record (Including 1st Round CFP): 9 - 5

GameAbove Sports Bowl

Pittsburgh vs Toledo

     After starting 7-0, the Panthers of Pitt quickly fell to 7-5 after losing 5 straight in the back half of the season. A couple of those games were decided by 1 score against Virginia and Clemson, but they were both at home. On the road, Pitt was outscored 119-57 in their three losses at the end of the year. A bowl win would go a long way to salvaging a positive end to the season, but Toledo plays tough in bowl games. Despite winning just 1 of their last 4 bowl games, all of them have been 1-score and come down to the wire. The Rockets had a few games like that throughout the season and will look to make some big plays in the passing game to shred the Panthers. Pitt ranks 120th in the nation in pass defense while the Rockets average nearly 250 per game through the air. Star wideout Jerjuan Newton is playing in his final game as a Rocket and will look to break the 1,000 yard threshold to end his career on a high note. He needs just 51 more yards to accomplish that task and already has 11 TDs on the season, so look for him to be a big red zone threat. Neither team likes to run the ball much, but on the bright side, Pitt should have QB Eli Holstein back in the lineup. He's thrown for 2,225 yards and 17 TDs this season with 7 picks. Unfortunately, the difference maker in this game will be the transfer portal. With more than a dozen players, primarily on defense leaving Pitt over the last few weeks, the Panthers are more vulnerable than before and I think the Rockets can take advantage to put up some points. Finishing with TDs rather than FGs will be important, but I'll take Toledo to edge out Pitt 32-28. After I wrote this I learned Eli Holstein will not be playing and David Lynch will be starting at QB for Pitt.

Rate Bowl

Rutgers vs Kansas State

     Ahead of playing Nebraska, Rutgers looked like another surprise team in the BIG 10 that could cause some damage. They ended up losing 4 in a row starting with the Huskers, but bounced back to win 3 of their last 4 to finish the season. Kansas State had Big XII Title hopes coming into the season, but growing pains for Avery Johnson proved to be a bit strenuous as they fell to 8-4 with losses to BYU, Houston, Arizona State and Iowa State. Three of those losses were in November which really hurt the Wildcats from being part of that Big XII Tiebreaker scenario. Regardless of how we got here, you'll get to see two of the better running backs in the nation that you probably haven't paid much attention to. Rutgers' Kyle Monangai and K-State's DJ Giddens will be the focal point of all defensive conversations in this matchup. Both are around 1,300 yards on the season and are punishing runners, enjoying contact and making defenders pay for weak tackle attempts. Monangai actually has better numbers than he did a year ago when he led the BIG 10 in rushing, this year he's second behind Iowa's Kaleb Johnson. Whichever team can clear a path for their bulldozing running back should win this game. K-State is boosted by the dual-threat ability of Avery Johnson and since their rush defense ranks 21st and Rutgers is 67th, I'll take the Wildcats to win 27-17. Found out after I wrote this that Monangai is no longer playing in the bowl game, so enjoy watching DJ Giddens and Avery Johnson run wild!

68 Ventures Bowl

Arkansas State vs Bowling Green

     The Red Wolves and the Falcons meet for just the second time in history as the first one was in 1974 with the Falcons winning at home 17-0. BG fell just short of a MAC Championship bid by losing to Miami (OH) in the regular season finale, so there's plenty of energy waiting in this team to get back on the field and prove themselves. Junior TE Harold Fannin Jr. is the player to watch in this one because the 6'4, 230 lbs. tight end is a nightmare to defend. He's racked up 1,342 yards on 100 catches (both more than Tyler Warren) to go along with 9 TDs. He's also one of the best perimeter blockers you never heard of, sealing off lanes for the Falcon ground game. He is the rightful Mackey winner in my opinion (and many others that watch the sport), and he'll put it on full display against Arkansas State. The Red Wolves are prone to giving up long plays for big gashes. If they can't force some turnovers early, this one could get ugly. Arkansas State is a fairly young team as well but haven't fully found their footing under Butch Jones. I'm expecting a big game from Fannin and you'll all see why he should've won the Mackey Award for the nation's best Tight End. Falcons win 34-21.

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl

Oklahoma vs Navy

     A very rough first season in the SEC for Boomer Sooner, but they did fulfill my prediction of being the team that knocks either Alabama or LSU out of the playoffs. They finished 6-6 in the third season under Brent Venables. Regardless of the injuries they were plagued by, this team was abysmal offensively. Oklahoma has always been known as one of the more prolific offensive powers in the nation, but ranked 121st in total offense this season and 95th in scoring offense. They've also been hit hard by the transfer portal as QB Jackson Arnold and many others have departed the program, leaving a lot of holes to be filled heading into next season, let alone this bowl game. Navy stumbled a bit toward the end, but finished strong with big wins over ECU and Army to close out their season. The triple option attack isn't a common one OU has to deal with, but defense has been their strength this season, so it will be best on best when the Midshipmen are on offense. Navy QB Blake Horvath has been dynamic all year, rushing for 1,099 yards with 15 TDs and throwing for another 1,261 yards and 13 TDs with just 4 picks. He does have a tendency to fumble from time to time, and the Sooners have picked up 12 fumbles on the season, so ball security will need to be a high priority. This might be a bit of a heart over head pick as the talent of Oklahoma should win out, but I think this Navy team has some tricks up their sleeve and Venables needs to do some serious work to the roster in the offseason. Give me the Midshipmen with their triple option attack to win 23-21.

Birmingham Bowl

Georgia Tech vs Vanderbilt

     The Yellow Jackets and Commodores were both responsible for some of the most memorable upsets of the 2024 season. Georgia Tech opened things up with the Florida State shocker in Dublin and added the Miami upset late in the year that ultimately kept the Hurricanes out of the playoffs. They should've had another against Georgia, but couldn't finish it out and lost in 7 OTs. Vanderbilt knocked off #1 Alabama for one of the most shocking upsets in decades, and sparking a level of fame few can only imagine for QB Diego Pavia. Both teams do have a number of players in the portal, but the heart and soul is intact with both squads as these QBs due battle. Haynes King for GT and Pavia for Vandy are two of the grittiest, hard-nosed competitors you will find in this sport. Both do a tremendous job of holding onto the rock as King has just 1 pick on the year and Pavia has 4. They're also dynamic rushers who don't mind a little bit of contact. I am excited to watch this game because it will be a battle to the final whistle on every single play. Pavia is a great QB, but since last year I've been full aboard the hype train of Haynes King. The Yellow Jacket QB makes very accurate throws and gets up after every single hit, no matter what. Give me the Ramblin' Wreck of Georgia Tech to win 27-24.

AutoZone Liberty Bowl

Texas Tech vs Arkansas

     The Red Raiders and Razorbacks renew an old rivalry as former members of the Southwest Conference. The Hogs own the series 29-8 all time, dominating most of the matchups while in the Southwest Conference. Looking to this game, I would expect some points. Both the Red Raiders and the Hogs average more than 30 points per game, with Texas Tech ranking 5th in the nation averaging 38.6. Neither team does well slowing opponents down, but Arkansas did hold Tennessee to just 14 and Texas to 20 earlier this year. There's a lot of talent with both of these programs, but QB Taylen Green for Arkansas and RB Tahj Brooks. There are quite a few players out for both injuries and portal transfers in this one, including TTU starting QB Behren Morton who is recovering from a surgery on his shoulder, so these two will be an extra focus in this game. Green transferred from Boise State and has done okay in the SEC, but nothing spectacular. He threw for 2,813 yards with 13 TDs and 9 picks while also adding another 7 TDs on the ground. Tahj Brooks is one of the best backs in the nation, rushing for more than 1,500 yards for the second consecutive season and adding 17 TDs to the tally this year. He's been a bit more effective catching passes out of the backfield, which bodes well for his pending NFL career. I'm always a bit partial to a dynamic RB, so I'll say Wreck 'Em and go Guns Up with the Red Raiders to win 37-35.

DirectTV Holiday Bowl

#21 Syracuse vs Washington State

     If you like passing attacks, this is the game for you! Kyle McCord and the Orange take on the Cougars of Wazzu. Unfortunately for Washington State fans, star QB John Mateer has transferred to Oklahoma to help fix their QB needs, so they might not be very competitive as the game moves along. However, if you have yet to watch Kyle McCord and the Syracuse offense, you need to tune in. McCord is the nation's leading passer with 4,326 yards to go along with 29 TDs and 12 picks. He was picking apart Miami as they held the 'Canes out of the playoffs, and this team is just very fun to watch. They are a serious threat under Fran Brown in the ACC next year and could certainly make a playoff push with McCord at QB and some tune ups on defense. Keep an eye on this team in 2025, but enjoy their last game of 2024 with a 38-17 win over Wazzu.

SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl

USC vs Texas A&M

     One of the best helmet games we've got during bowl season takes place in Vegas as the Trojans and Aggies square off in a battle of big brands. The Aggies were one win away from the SEC Championship, but couldn't break through the vaunted Texas defense. They had opportunities to score, including multiple chances from the 1 yard line, but only came away with a pick six in that game. USC had a very rough season, but found their way to 6-6 after switching QBs to Jayden Maiava in the last part of the season. Texas A&M has been rolling with Marcel Reed at QB, so both young QBs have an opportunity to make a big statement heading into next season. While the Trojans don't have the defensive prowess of the Longhorns, they are significantly better this season ranking 56th in scoring defense as opposed to 121st from last season. They've racked up 10 interceptions on the season, so if they can contain Marcel Reed in the pocket and make him throw like Texas did, there's a path to victory. Both Reed and Maiava are deadly scramblers out of the pocket, so QB contain is a high priority. I'd love to see the BIG 10 step up here, but A&M's defense was giving Texas plenty of headaches and I think they're going to make some plays to swing this game. Should be fun to watch these young QBs and big brands battle it out in Vegas. I'll go with the Aggies to win 30-21.

Wasabi Fenway Bowl

UConn vs North Carolina

     North Carolina has made arguably the biggest statement of the College Football Offseason by hiring 8-time Super Bowl Champion Head Coach Bill Belichick to lead them next season. The final year under Mac Brown was a bit of a disaster, especially defensively as UNC ranks 79th in total defense and 91st in scoring defense, allowing at least 28 points per game on average. UConn was my rebuild team for the College Football 25 video game, so I am a bit partial to the Huskies. However, separate of my National Championship with the team, they did well to finish 8-4 on the season in the third year under Jim Mora. They are led by Senior QB Joe Fagnano who has 1,480 passing yards on the season with 18 TDs and 4 picks. I really don't know what direction this game will go but again I'll go with my underrated star RB, Omarion Hampton from UNC. He's rushed for 1,660 yards and 15 TDs and averaged 8.4 yards per carry last game against NC State. He'll have another big day and the Tar Heels beat the Huskies 31-21.

Isleta New Mexico Bowl

Louisiana vs TCU

     The Ragin' Cajuns were red hot this year winning 10 games for just the 4th time in program history. They fell to Marshall in the Sun Belt Championship, but are not a team to sleep on. They rank 11th in the nation with a +11 Turnover Margin and offensively rank 4th in the nation with a 93.1 % red zone scoring conversion rate. TCU will certain have their hands full in this one, but Sonny Dykes usually has this team amped up and ready. Sophomore Josh Hoover has racked up nearly 3,700 passing yards with 23 TDs and just 10 picks this season. He's got the Frogs rolling on a 3-game win streak and averaging 34.3 points per game on the season. Give me the Frogs and a wild victory video on social media for a 37-20 win.

Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl

Miami (OH) vs Colorado State

     The Redhawks and Rams square off in the Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl which is just one of the many reasons why College Football is one of the greatest things on this planet. Both teams are fairly even on the stat sheet, especially with a balanced attack offensively. QBs Brett Gabbert (Miami) and Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi (CSU) have a couple years separating them, so we'll see if experience or youth wins out. Starting with the experience, Gabbert is finishing his 6th year as a Red Hawk and has more than 10,000 career passing yards with 80 TDs and 30 picks. Fowler-Nicolosi is finishing his second year as a starter for the Rams, and this year was a bit more lackluster than the first. He's short about 1,000 yards from last season and 9 TDs, but the Rams were running the ball more this season. I'll go with the Redhawks and we'll see Brett Gabbert finish his career with a big day. Miami (OH) defeats Colorado State 30-24.

Go Bowling Military Bowl

East Carolina vs North Carolina State

     ECU bounced back quickly after winning just 2 games last season while NC State fell off a bit in 2024. With all they hype around the Woflpack, 6-6 is a bit tough to swallow. Half of their losses did come in 1 score games, but with some roster turnover, this team should be back to causing headaches in the ACC. Freshman QB CJ Bailey has the reigns after Grayson McCall retired from football earlier this season due to a myriad of head injuries. Bailey has done well, but has not had much protection, being sacked 21 times this season. The Pirates don't generate a ton of pressure, but this is a big opportunity for them in this game. Last key factor is to hand the ball off to Senior RB Rahjai Harris as he's averaging 5 yards per carry and is just 54 yards away from the 1,000 mark on the season. I'll take the Pirates as the Wolfpack rebuild and ECU wins 30-28.

Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl

Louisiana Tech vs Army

     In place of the decimated Sun Belt Champs (Marshall), the Bulldogs of Louisiana Tech sub in to play Army in the Independence Bowl. Marshall's Head Coach left for Southern Miss (strange in-conference move to the bottom team after winning it) and along with injuries, multiple players are transferring out, so the Heard didn't have enough to play. Louisiana Tech actually ranks 30th in rush defense, so they could do well in holding down the Black Knights on offense. Army had a myriad of issues against rival Navy in the season finale, but I trust in QB Bryson Dailey. The Army star has more than 1,500 yards with 29 rushing TDs and added another 9 TDs and nearly 1,000 yards through the air. He's so difficult to shut down and I think he and Army will roll over the Bulldogs. GO ARMY as they win 35-14.

Pop-Tarts Bowl

#18 Iowa State vs #13 Miami

     Arguably the greatest spectacle in the history of sports, the second rendition of the Pop-Tarts Bowl is set to take place this weekend in Orlando. Obviously the highlight of this bowl is the live mascot being lowered into the toaster and subsequently eaten by the winning team, but I suppose we could talk some football too. Miami just missed the playoffs after late season upset losses to Georgia Tech & Syracuse, but this is one of the most dynamic offenses in the nation led by Cam Ward. I loved watching Ward at Wazzu and his full potential has been unleashed with the Hurricanes this season. With 4,123 receiving yards, 36 TDs and 7 picks to go along with another 4 TDs and dynamic playmaking ability outside of the pocket, he's sure to be a top draft pick come April. He'll be up against the teeth of one of the Big XII's better defensive units. Matt Campbell and the Cyclones fly around to the ball and love to gang tackle so playmakers don't get away. They've forced 21 turnovers on the season and will look for a few more in this one. On the offensive side of the ball, they're looking to get back on track after a rough finish to the season. QB Rocco Becht is returning for 2025, so this is a good place to spark that campaign against a very vulnerable defense. The Hurricanes have been torched a few times this year, allowing teams to hang around or come back in games. There are no big opt-outs in this game, so I'll go with Cam Ward to light things up and win the game. Miami defeats Iowa State 37-28, but more importantly: Hot Fudge Sunday Pop-Tart is the one that's eaten!

Valero Alamo Bowl

#17 BYU vs #23 Colorado

     Heisman winner Travis Hunter and star QB Shedeur Sanders aren't sitting out of the Alamo Bowl, so we should see plenty of points in this one. Despite my hatred for Colorado, I have to give my props to both Hunter & Sanders. Sanders especially proved me wrong this season and has been one of the more impressive QBs in the nation. We already knew about Travis Hunter's talent, and while I think Ashton Jeanty should have the Heisman hardware, there's no denying that he's made a big impact on this team. For the Cougars, Jake Retzlaff and company need to be ready for a barn burner. This game is likely to go punch for punch as both offenses have big play ability. There are plenty of arguments that BYU should've had a shot at the Big XII Title, but tiebreakers fell the way of the Cyclones. This is the opportunity for the Cougars to make a big statement and set up a narrative for next season. Defensively they're the better team, allowing just 20.1 points per game on average. The Cougars are also +9 in turnover margin, so expect this to be a close game with both teams forcing some take aways. Despite the compliments, I won't be picking Colorado. I think BYU is better than their losses against Kansas and Arizona State because a lot of the issues in those games were mistakes of their own. Cougars with the upset 33-31.

Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl

Boston College vs Nebraska

     For the first time since I was a Junior in college, I get to watch my Huskers in a Bowl Game! Unfortunately as a Red Sox fan, I get to watch them play in Yankee Stadium, but I'll take it nonetheless. The Huskers have had a wild few weeks following their regular season loss to Iowa, losing Defensive Coordinator Tony White, hiring Dana Holgersen as OC and multiple transfer portal players both in and out of the program. Boston College had their own drama with QB Thomas Castellanos leaving the program mid-season after being benched. He's now at Florida State and former FIU Panther, Grayson James is the lead man for the Eagles. However, the biggest threat from Boston College is not on offense. Senior defensive end Donovan Ezeiruaku has racked up 16.5 sacks with 80 total tackles on the season. He's got 28 career sacks and is one of the more formidable pass rushers in the nation. For context, BC has 30 total sacks this season, so more than half have come from Ezeiruaku, which is 0.5 the top spot in the nation. The Husker O-line has had issues with pass protection for most of the year, as highlighted by the strip sack versus Iowa that ultimately led to the Husker loss. Emmett Johnson is my Husker key to victory because the ball needs to get out of Raiola's hand quickly. Running the ball effectively always mitigates a pash rush, but utilizing Emmett Johnson as a check down will be important to make sure Dylan isn't sacked. The offense has had a few weeks to game plan for this one, so I expect a few strong drives from Holgersen and company. Defensively, there are quite a few pieces now missing with the departure of Tony White. The Blackshirts will have a lot of young players in the mix, but no matter what, TACKLE LOW. The Huskers missed so many tackles against Iowa due to high tackling position. Boston College's lead RB averages 4.4 yards per carry with a 6'0, 220 lbs. frame. He won't go down easy and neither will Grayson James who is dangerous with his legs, already accounting for 3 rushing TDs in his few weeks as a starter. If the Huskers can get Emmett Johnson working early and keep Raiola's jersey clean, there are points to be had in this game. DO NOT let Ezeiruaku control the pocket and for all things holy, please take care of the ball. Huskers still have a lot of growing to do ahead of 2025, but this should be a step in the right direction. GO BIG RED for a 27-24 victory.

Thanks for reading my Bowl Predictions and stay read for more posts coming your way next week with more bowl games and the second round of the College Football Playoff!

#CFBKnowItAll

Alex Fernando

College Football Playoff - Round 1 Predictions

      Happy Friday Football friends! We've got the first round of the new College Football Playoff starting tonight and continuing with a full slate of games tomorrow. This is such an exciting time as we fully embark on the new age of crowning a College Football Champion. This post has everything you need to know along with my predictions for the 4 first round games. A reminder that these first round games are played on campuses by the higher seeded team, so home crown factor will certainly play a role as these teams do battle. Let's get to it!

#10 Indiana at #7 Notre Dame

     Separate of a playoff game, the battle for bragging rights in the state of Indiana is up for grabs as in-state teams start off our playoff weekend with a Friday night showdown in South Bend. Despite just over 3 hours separating these teams, they've only played 29 times throughout history, and this will be the first meeting since 1991. Indiana is historically the worst team (most losses) in College Football history, while the Fighting Irish are one of the most prominent. With cold and snow forecasted, this should be an old school, smash mouth type of game. Both teams rely on heavy work in the trenches as a strength of their team. The Irish rank 10th in the nation in rush offense, led by dynamic running back, Jeremiyah Love. He's racked up 949 yards with 15 TDs on the season and averages 7.1 yards per carry. The Sophomore is complimented by Senior QB Riley Leonard who transferred from Duke. Leonard has added another 721 yards and 14 TDs of his own on the ground. They will be tested though as Indiana has the top ranked rush defense in the nation, allowing just 70 yards per game on average. Notre Dame's only loss of the season came to Northern Illinois, who ranks 17th in the nation for rush defense, and the Irish mustered up just 123 yards on the ground in that game. Offensively for the Hoosiers, all eyes are set on watching ex-Ohio QB Kurtis Rourke. Apart from the loss at Ohio State, he was sensational all year throwing for 2,857 yards with 27 TDs and just 4 picks while completing 70.4% of his passes. Notre Dame has the 4th most interceptions on the season with 17 as a defense, but haven't been tested much by top QBs. With good protection up front, Rourke could do some damage in this game. Last factor I'll hit on is 3rd down. The Irish rank 88th on third down conversions, while the Hoosiers rank 12th. Both teams rank in the top 10 in opponent third downs allowed, so Indiana and their dominance on the line of scrimmage truly have an opportunity here. I think this could be one of the closer games of the weekend, especially with the weather factored in. Ultimately, I think the talent wins out with Notre Dame, especially on defense. They force a couple of turnovers on Rourke and company and pull out an in-state playoff win 23-18.

#11 SMU at #6 Penn State

     If there's a lower seed upset this weekend, I think the most likely place to pick is in Happy Valley. The Ponies have been my team all year long and nearly sat at home this weekend with a first round bye. Don't think the White Out and the BIG 10 atmosphere will be enough to rattle them, this team knows how to play some championship level football. Penn State will have their hands full with SMU QB Kevin Jennings. He's already on my list for Heisman watch next season, especially after accounting for nearly 3,500 total offensive yards and 27 TDs. He wasn't even the starter at the beginning of the season, but when given the reigns of this offense, he led SMU to the #6 scoring offense in the nation. He struggled early against Clemson's rugged defense, and that's where Penn State has their best chance in this game, get after him early. The Nittany Lions rank 6th in total defense and have 33 sacks on the season thus far. If they can get after Jennings early and force a turnover or two, they can build up an early lead like Clemson and make life easier for their offense. Against Oregon, Penn State threw haymakers back and forth with the Ducks, resulting in a 45-37 loss in the BIG 10 Championship. That was one of the best offensive performances I've seen from a Penn State team in years, but can they repeat it? Myself included, a lot of people focus on the offense of SMU and the talent of Kevin Jennings. This team is in the playoffs because of their defense. They are a top 30 total defense, have 40 sacks on the season, have forced 21 turnovers on the year and recently just held Clemson to 63 total rush yards (the Tigers average 180 per game) and 7 second half points before the game winning field goal. Penn State has struggled to put up points against top ranked defenses such as Ohio State, Minnesota and Bowling Green. Drew Allar needs to play mistake free and have some big throws to spark the Penn State offense in this game. Tyler Warren is a nightmare for any defense to cover, but he seems to get forgotten in the Red Zone. If they can find rhythm early and force a turnover or two, the atmosphere can help them push to a win. I think SMU has the ability to make a statement early. They made mistakes early against Clemson and put themselves in a hole. That won't be the case in Happy Valley. I've got the Ponies onto the second round for an all horse quarter final against the Broncos of Boise State. SMU beats Penn State 33-24. #PonyUP

#12 Clemson at #5 Texas

     The Tigers stole an automatic bid with a game-winning field goal against SMU in the ACC Championship, launching them into the playoffs. They are rewarded with a trip to Austin to take on the Longhorns. Texas lost in overtime to Georgia in the SEC Championship, but are heavily favored to almost walk their way to the CFB semi-finals with the Tigers and the Sun Devils in their path. Many are calling this one of the easiest paths in the playoff, but they are soon to forget that Dabo Swinney knows a thing or two about winning in the playoffs. Clemson is certainly not the Tigers of pre-Covid, but this team has talent and forces mistakes. Two factors that can keep coaches up at night. Mistakes are the key word in this game, as Texas QB Quinn Ewers has been prone to making those from time to time. He's thrown 9 picks on the season (including 3 to Georgia over 2 games) and against the Aggies he needed the Longhorn defense to bail them out after he turned it over on back-to-back drives, including a pick 6. Plenty of Arch Manning rumors have been floating around and reports of BIG 10 schools offering Quinn multi-million dollar NIL deals to transfer to them next season. With all that weighing on his mind, he's got to deal with the Tigers' defense that has 33 sacks and 25 takeaways on the year. Clemson ranks 5th in turnover margin at +16 on the season, so any mistakes could be costly. Luckily for Ewers and the Longhorns, they have a tremendous defense of their own. If you're looking for big points in this game, I would look elsewhere. The Texas defense allows just 12.5 points per game on average and I saw their full strength in the multiple goal line stands they had against Texas A&M. The Aggies had so many opportunities for points in that game but came away with nothing. Cade Klubnik does a fabulous job of taking care of the rock, throwing just 5 picks this season. However, he needs support from the run game. I mentioned their struggles in running the ball against SMU in the ACC Championship, but that's been an issue in a few games this season. Texas will look to shut down Phil Mafah early, forcing Clemson into third and long situations. The over/under line is set at 50.5 in this one, and with the defenses playing the way they typically do, I would take the under. A tough one in Austin, but the Texas defense makes more stops than Clemson's and they send the Tigers home. Texas 20, Clemson 13.

#9 Tennessee at #8 Ohio State

     The Buckeyes get to host a first round game at the Horseshoe as the Vols come in from Rocky Top. Ryan Day could potentially be coaching for his job, despite bringing his team to a playoff game, but regardless, the pressure is high in Columbus. Two dynamic offenses are set to be featured, but neither has fully lived up to the hype all season long. The Buckeyes were stonewalled against rival Michigan, putting up just 10 points and 252 total yards on offense. Their run game has been severely disappointing this season, despite a veteran offensive line and two of the most talented RBs in the nation toting the pill out of the backfield. Tennessee has done well in the run game behind RB Dylan Sampson (1,485 yards and 22 TDs), but their typically blazing air raid has been muted this year with limited without a star wideout in the mix. Nico Iamaleava has done well in his first season as a starter, but Ohio State's top ranked defense certainly won't be a walk in the park. This game has such a unique vibe to it because if Tennessee can cause havoc early, the crowd could turn on Ryan Day. With what has been dubbed the "best roster money can buy", it's been a very disappointing season for Buckeye faithful, especially losing to Michigan for the 4th time in a row despite being heavy favorites. Ohio State can win this game with their pass rush. They have 35 sacks on the season and Tennessee has given up 26. Although he's been a full year starter, Nico Iamaleava is still a young QB and with a chaotic road environment and some cold weather, a couple of early sacks could rattle him. Offensively, Will Howard needs to be the distributor and nothing more. Tennessee has the 5th best 3rd down defense in the nation, allowing just a 29.5% conversion rate. Will Howard needs to get the ball out of his hands and to his playmakers if they want to have a high conversion rate. Both Michigan and Indiana shut down WR Jeremiah Smith as he's racked up 8 catches for 69 yards and 1 TD over the past two games. If the run game isn't working, Smith and Emeka Egbuka (11 catches for 131 yards and 1 TD over the past two games) need to be heavily involved. This is a tricky pick, probably my toughest of the weekend. I like Ohio State at home, and I'm hoping we get the best playoff game of the weekend in this prime time spot. Buckeye offense wakes up and makes some big plays to win 31-27 over Tennessee at home.

Thanks for reading my predictions on the first round of playoff games and enjoy a very special college football weekend! Look for my Bowl Predictions post early next week.

#CFBKnowItAll

Alex Fernando

December 17 - 21 Bowl Games

      Welcome to Bowl Season! I apologize for the delay as I was unable to get this post out ahead of the South Alabama vs Western Michigan game, but you can check my X post, I did pick the Jaguars! This post will have my predictions for the first week of Bowl Games. I will have a separate post for the first round of the College Football Playoffs. The transfer portal has a lot of players opting out, but I'll do my best to keep up with all the information with each game. There's a lot of fun matchups, so lets get to the picks!

Scooter's Coffee Frisco Bowl

#25 Memphis vs West Virginia

     The Mountaineers had a rough road to 6-6, and Neal Brown was let go following the 52-15 loss in their final regular season game against Texas Tech. Memphis ended their season with a big upset win against Tulane to get to 10 wins. They've gone back to back with 10 wins for the first time in program history. Memphis RB Mario Anderson Jr. is the key player to watch in this game. West Virginia ranks 55th in rush defense, allowing around 140 yards per game. Anderson has 1,292 yards and 17 TDs on the ground, running all over opposing defenses. I think he'll have a big night to end his college career on and the Tigers win 31-21.

Boca Raton Bowl

Western Kentucky vs James Madison

     Not many opt outs in this game as the Hilltoppers and the Dukes square off in Florida. WKU was smacked 52-12 in a rematch against Jacksonville State for the C-USA Championship, so they're certainly coming in with a bad taste in their mouth. The Dukes have their own bad taste after losing their final two games, including a 35-33 double OT loss to Marshall in the season finale. The Sophomore QB battle should provide a bit of a shootout as both Caden Veltkamp (WKU) and Alonza Barnett III (JMU) both have 20+ TD passes on the season. Barnett has just 4 picks on the season while Veltkamp has 10. Both QBs have good weapons at wideout though, so look for plenty of points. I'll take Barnett and the Dukes with a 44-34 victory.

Art of Sport LA Bowl

Cal vs #24 UNLV

     The Golden Bears finished at 6-6 after a lot of hype early in the season, and now take on the Mountain West runner up Rebels from UNLV. Hajj-Malik Williams and crew struggled to move the ball against Boise, but Cal's defense allowed 415 yards and 38 points to SMU in their season finale. Fernando Mendoza is the spark for the Golden Bears, and his dual threat ability could be a big factor in keeping Cal in the game. I like the Rebels in this one though, especially with star receiver Ricky White III. He's torched opposing defenses for more than 1,000 yards with 11 TDs on the season. He'll have a big night and the Rebels win 28-23.

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl

Georgia Southern vs Sam Houston

     Despite my preseason prediction, Clay Helton and the Eagles of Georgia Southern had an impressive season to an 8-4 record. They draw 9-3 Sam Houston State in their second FBS season. Not much separates these teams statistically, but sacks and turnover margin heavily favor the Bearkats. Sam Houston is +8 while the Eagles are +1 and the Bearkats have 8 more sacks on the season. However, they also have 10 more portal transfers after K.C. Keeler made the move to coach Temple. With 4 RBs in the portal and their best defensive player in Safety Caleb Weaver, I am leaning toward Clay Helton's squad getting the 36-21 victory.

StaffDNA Cure Bowl

Ohio vs Jacksonville State

     The MAC and C-USA Champions square off in a battle of conference champs for the Cure Bowl. The Bobcats haven't lost since mid-October, and QB Parker Navarro has been impressive with 2,169 passing yards, 943 rushing yards and 27 Total TDs. He's thrown 10 picks on the year, so there's some opportunity for turnovers as the Gamecocks have picked 11 this year. They're coming off a big win against Western Kentucky for the C-USA Championship, and the ground game with Tre Stewart has been rolling. Stewart is averaging 6.1 yards per carry and has 23 rushing TDs this season. I like this matchup a lot and this is likely to be one of the more entertaining bowl games of the week. I'll take the Bobcats in a 40-38 thriller.

Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl

Tulane vs Florida

     The Green Wave finished their season with back-to-back losses against Memphis and then Army in the American Conference Championship, but did keep ahold of their Head Coach, John Sumrall, who was a popular target for some P4 jobs. The Gators finished with a 3-game win streak against LSU, Ole Miss and rival Florida State, knocking the first two out of playoff contentions. They've battled a tremendous amount of injuries this year, but DJ Lagway looks to be a real deal athlete at QB. Supported by some tough defense, the Gators are heavily favored by 2 scores in this one, but do have quite a few players opting out of this one for the Transfer Portal. Tulane will be without star QB Darian Mensah, who left for Duke following the American Conference Championship, which will certainly limit their offense. Sophomore RB Makhi Hughes will be the focal point as he's rushed for 1,372 yards this season with 15 TDs on the ground. If he can have a big day, I think Tulane can keep this close. Nonetheless, talent wins out and I think we're starting to see what Billy Napier and the Gators are building in Gainesville. Chomp Chomp and GO GATORS as they win this one 30-17.

Thanks for reading my first set of Bowl Game Predictions and be ready for more posts soon, there's still quite a bit of College Football left.

#CFBKnowItAll

Alex Fernando

Conference Championship Predictions

      Hello College Football fans and welcome to Championship Week! It always goes by so fast, but we've reached the Conference Championships of the 2024 season. First round BYEs, playoff seeding and a lot more than just a fancy trophy on the line for teams this week. There are four conference newcomers are in each of the Power 4 Conference Championships, and we have a couple of rematches at the G5 level. This post will look at all the Conference Championship games as I give my analysis and predictions. There's still some shake ups that can occur with the playoff rankings, so let's see what CHAOS can be caused this weekend!

Rivalry Week Record: 22 - 7

Regular Season Record: 194 - 82 (70.3%)

Conference USA Championship

Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State

     If you're feeling some dejavu, that's expected, these teams played last week. The Hilltoppers came away with a 19-17 victory at home, and now go on the road to do it all over again. My number 1 rule in college football is that you NEVER want to play a team twice. Jacksonville State is most certainly looking for revenge after a 50 yard field goal set up this rematch. WKU actually dominated most of the stats in this game, but ex-Husker QB Logan Smothers and the Gamecocks did rack up 229 yards on the ground. If they can improve from 2/13 on third down, they should be able to walk out as C-USA Champions. I'll follow my rule and go with Jacksonville State to win 26-21.

 

American Athletic Conference Championship

Tulane at #24 Army

     Kicking Championship Weekend off Friday night, we have the American with Tulane at Army. Despite their big loss to Notre Dame, Army has not missed a step this season, and were knocking on the playoff door for a while. Unfortunately it would be very difficult for them to jump UNLV if both schools won, but an impressive season nonetheless. Tulane had a shot at the Playoffs as well, but a tumble against Memphis last week dashed their changes as the Tigers rushed for 236 yards in a 34-24 victory. The Green Wave uncharacteristically had 3 turnovers in that game, causing a lot of their issues. Typically Tulane gives up half that rushing total on the ground per game, but now face the Black Knights and their top ranked ground game. I think Memphis laid out a good game plan for Army, and the run game is the big difference maker as Army wins the American with a ground and pound 27-20 victory.

Mountain West Conference Championship

#20 UNLV at #10 Boise State

     A College Football Playoff spot is on the line in the Mountain West as UNLV and Boise State rematch on the Smurf Turf. A win would likely guarantee the Broncos a first round BYE while an upset would move UNLV into the final playoff spot as the last conference champion in the field. Boise won the first matchup in late October in Vegas. Ashton Jeanty had his worst game of the season with 128 yards and 1 TD, also suffering an elbow injury in that game. Maddux Madsen completed just 54.5% of his passes for 209 yards and 1 TD in that game, so he'll be looking for a bounce back performance as well. For the Rebels, Hajj-Malik Williams is the focal point of their offense, especially with his dual threat ability. The Broncos will once again have their hands full with him, but I'm going to break my rule. Typically I have a strong and fast rule against playing an opponent twice in a season and it having go your way both times. However, a true Heisman opportunity presents itself for Ashton Jeanty tonight, and with a big night from him, the Broncos earn a first round BYE in the Playoffs. Boise State 31, UNLV 27. Give Jeanty the Heisman!

Mid-America Conference (MAC) Championship

Ohio vs Miami (OH)

     Despite all the NIL money spent on the roster, the only teams from Ohio to make a conference championship game are the Bobcats and the Redhawks. An in-state rivalry only adds fuel to the fire for the MAC Championship as Ohio and Miami (OH) square off for more than just the 'Battle of Bricks'. These teams met in mid-October as the Redhawks came away with a 30-20 victory. Ohio made a strong comeback in the 4th quarter, cutting the lead to 10, but the Red Hawks had it in control for most the game. Miami (OH) racked up 3 sacks, 4 tackles for loss and 8 pass deflections in that game, reeking havoc on the line of scrimmage. The Bobcats have been flawless since that game, winning 4 straight by an average margin of 27 points. The Bobcats are 0-5 in MAC Championship games, while the Red Hawks are looking to defend their title from last year. My heart wants to pick Ohio and follow my rule, but I'm going to break it again and give a nod to the Red Hawks. MAC Champions once again following a rugged 23-17 victory.

Sun Belt Conference Championship

Marshall at Louisiana

     The Ragin' Cajuns and The Thundering Heard are set to battle for the Sun Belt as the only conference that still has divisions. Both teams would've been in regardless, but the divisions are good to see so we don't have to worry about so many tie-breakers. Both teams have dynamic QBs that take very good care of the football. Junior Braylon Braxton leads Marshall with more than 1,400 yards passing and a 17:2 TD to INT ratio. He's added another 544 yards on the ground and 4 TDs. When he breaks contain of the pocket, big plays happen. On the other side, Senior Ben Wooldridge has just shy of 2,400 yards with 17 TDs to 5 picks. While not as dynamic of a runner, he's added 5 TDs on the ground. Both of these offenses can put up quite a few points, both averaging over 31 per game. I'll take the Ragin' Cajuns playing at home to win 42-35.

Big XII Conference Championship

#16 Iowa State vs #15 Arizona State

     As predicted, the Big XII had the wildest and most ridiculous path to the two conference championship contenders. A lot of tiebreakers had to be used to get us a matchup between Iowa State and Arizona State, but the Cyclones and Sun Devils are set for a battle to decide who earns the final conference champion playoff birth. Starting with the Sun Devils, they were picked DEAD LAST to compete in the Big XII this season, but now sit just 60 minutes away from the playoff. A tremendous season for Kenny Dillingham and his staff. The do-it-all running back, Cam Skattebo is the man to watch as he makes plays in so many different ways. He averages 5.7 yards per carry and has 17 rushing touchdowns on the season, while adding another 2 receiving. He'll be one of the toughest tests for the Cyclones and their 96th ranked rush defense. However, they don't give up many points with just an average of 19.6 points per game allowed, so you need to make the most of your drives against Iowa State. Offensively, this game will ultimately be determined by the play of Rocco Becht. The Cyclone gunslinger completed just 37.1% of his passes against K-State last week, but had 2 TDs. Typically he's throwing for upwards of 250 yards, but ASU averages a 1:1 ratio on passing TDs allowed to interceptions with 14 a piece. This should be one of the more intriguing games to watch, and I've got Iowa State pushing into the Playoffs with a 33-24 victory.

Southeastern Conference (SEC) Championship

#5 Georgia vs #2 Texas

     Another rematch is set for Atlanta as Georgia welcomes Texas into familiar territory for the Dawgs. The Longhorns handled business on the road in Aggieland last week with a dominant defensive performance while the Bulldogs narrowly escaped a disastrous loss to Georgia Tech by outlasting them in 8 overtimes. In round one of this battle, Georgia's defensive front commanded everything and recorded 7 sacks, 10 tackles for loss, 6 pass deflections and 1 interception. The only reason the score was respectable is because Carson Beck threw 3 picks. Now Texas' defense showed quite a bit in that win against A&M, not allowing a single offensive point, holding on forth down multiple times throughout the game and adding a lot of pressure to Marcel Reed. I expect a lot of defense in round 2 for this game, but I do not trust Carson Beck to get the job done. I'm following my rule this time and I'll take the Longhorns in the rematch to win the SEC as a newcomer. Texas 23, Georgia 17.

BIG 10 Conference Championship

#3 Penn State vs #1 Oregon

     Penn State falls into the BIG 10 Conference Title game following Ohio State's loss to Michigan, and now have a shot at the first round BYE despite accomplishing very little in terms of resume building wins throughout the season. In a way, they seem like one of the most forgotten teams in the playoffs, and they're either sitting with a BYE or likely hosting a game following this one, so not a bad spot to be. Their offense has been lackluster all season outside of Tyler Warren at Tight End. He's just shy of 1,000 receiving yards to go with 6 TDs and has rushed in another 4 on the ground. Oregon is led by Dillon Gabriel at QB with nearly 3,300 pass yards and a 24:6 TD to INT ratio. However, I've said it a few times already this year, but the X-factor player is RB Jordan James. His 5.7 yards per carry wears down opposing defenses throughout the game and he's the reason Oregon is so successful on 3rd down. They rank 7th in the nation converting 49.67% of their 3rd downs. James help keep the offense on pace with the chains and if you don't gang tackle him he will run through the first few defenders. Penn State's defense is tough, but they need to find a way off the field when Oregon has the ball. A couple turnovers could tip this game, but I like Oregon to win behind another big performance from Jordan James and the Ducks defensive line getting pressure. Oregon 22, Penn State 14. Another conference newbie takes the crown in their first season.

Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC) Championship

#17 Clemson vs #8 SMU

     The "bid-stealing" Clemson Tigers could jump into the playoffs with a win and potentially secure a first round BYE depending on some of the other conference championship games. The perennial ACC power are challenged by a newcomer, rising from the G5 ranks to go unbeaten in conference play in their first year of "big boy ball". Rhett Lashlee and the Pony Express have been overlooked all season long and now have a statement opportunity on the biggest stage. The Mustangs are 11-1 with their only loss coming by 3 to the 10-2 BYU Cougars. They are lead by a dynamic QB (and my 2025 Heisman front-runner) in Kevin Jennings. His movements are so smooth and eerily similar to a former ACC star, Lamar Jackson. Now there's still plenty of a gap between those two players, but if you watch this game you'll start to see what I'm talking about. Clemson has a rugged run game that is looking to impose their will, averaging 190 yards per game on the ground. My key factors in this game are penalties and big plays. The Ponies are 3rd to last in the nation for penalties, averaging more than 8 per game for over 80 yards. However, they make up for that with big plays, ranking 19th with 67 plays of 20+ yards. Defensively, the Tigers are not what they once were, giving up 62 plays this season of 20+ yards for a 107th ranking in that category. Arguably my boldest prediction of the season was that the ACC would get 2 teams to the playoff and one would be SMU. Miami being ranked behind Alabama could dash that full prediction, but Pony Up, because I've got SMU winning the ACC and causing some havoc in the Playoffs. Mustangs beat the Tigers 36-30.

Thank you for reading my Conference Championship Week Predictions. I hope you enjoy another great weekend of football and are excited for the Playoffs to be set!

#CFBKnowItAll

Alex Fernando