Happy Friday Football friends! We've got the first round of the new College Football Playoff starting tonight and continuing with a full slate of games tomorrow. This is such an exciting time as we fully embark on the new age of crowning a College Football Champion. This post has everything you need to know along with my predictions for the 4 first round games. A reminder that these first round games are played on campuses by the higher seeded team, so home crown factor will certainly play a role as these teams do battle. Let's get to it!
#10 Indiana at #7 Notre Dame
Separate of a playoff game, the battle for bragging rights in the state of Indiana is up for grabs as in-state teams start off our playoff weekend with a Friday night showdown in South Bend. Despite just over 3 hours separating these teams, they've only played 29 times throughout history, and this will be the first meeting since 1991. Indiana is historically the worst team (most losses) in College Football history, while the Fighting Irish are one of the most prominent. With cold and snow forecasted, this should be an old school, smash mouth type of game. Both teams rely on heavy work in the trenches as a strength of their team. The Irish rank 10th in the nation in rush offense, led by dynamic running back, Jeremiyah Love. He's racked up 949 yards with 15 TDs on the season and averages 7.1 yards per carry. The Sophomore is complimented by Senior QB Riley Leonard who transferred from Duke. Leonard has added another 721 yards and 14 TDs of his own on the ground. They will be tested though as Indiana has the top ranked rush defense in the nation, allowing just 70 yards per game on average. Notre Dame's only loss of the season came to Northern Illinois, who ranks 17th in the nation for rush defense, and the Irish mustered up just 123 yards on the ground in that game. Offensively for the Hoosiers, all eyes are set on watching ex-Ohio QB Kurtis Rourke. Apart from the loss at Ohio State, he was sensational all year throwing for 2,857 yards with 27 TDs and just 4 picks while completing 70.4% of his passes. Notre Dame has the 4th most interceptions on the season with 17 as a defense, but haven't been tested much by top QBs. With good protection up front, Rourke could do some damage in this game. Last factor I'll hit on is 3rd down. The Irish rank 88th on third down conversions, while the Hoosiers rank 12th. Both teams rank in the top 10 in opponent third downs allowed, so Indiana and their dominance on the line of scrimmage truly have an opportunity here. I think this could be one of the closer games of the weekend, especially with the weather factored in. Ultimately, I think the talent wins out with Notre Dame, especially on defense. They force a couple of turnovers on Rourke and company and pull out an in-state playoff win 23-18.
#11 SMU at #6 Penn State
If there's a lower seed upset this weekend, I think the most likely place to pick is in Happy Valley. The Ponies have been my team all year long and nearly sat at home this weekend with a first round bye. Don't think the White Out and the BIG 10 atmosphere will be enough to rattle them, this team knows how to play some championship level football. Penn State will have their hands full with SMU QB Kevin Jennings. He's already on my list for Heisman watch next season, especially after accounting for nearly 3,500 total offensive yards and 27 TDs. He wasn't even the starter at the beginning of the season, but when given the reigns of this offense, he led SMU to the #6 scoring offense in the nation. He struggled early against Clemson's rugged defense, and that's where Penn State has their best chance in this game, get after him early. The Nittany Lions rank 6th in total defense and have 33 sacks on the season thus far. If they can get after Jennings early and force a turnover or two, they can build up an early lead like Clemson and make life easier for their offense. Against Oregon, Penn State threw haymakers back and forth with the Ducks, resulting in a 45-37 loss in the BIG 10 Championship. That was one of the best offensive performances I've seen from a Penn State team in years, but can they repeat it? Myself included, a lot of people focus on the offense of SMU and the talent of Kevin Jennings. This team is in the playoffs because of their defense. They are a top 30 total defense, have 40 sacks on the season, have forced 21 turnovers on the year and recently just held Clemson to 63 total rush yards (the Tigers average 180 per game) and 7 second half points before the game winning field goal. Penn State has struggled to put up points against top ranked defenses such as Ohio State, Minnesota and Bowling Green. Drew Allar needs to play mistake free and have some big throws to spark the Penn State offense in this game. Tyler Warren is a nightmare for any defense to cover, but he seems to get forgotten in the Red Zone. If they can find rhythm early and force a turnover or two, the atmosphere can help them push to a win. I think SMU has the ability to make a statement early. They made mistakes early against Clemson and put themselves in a hole. That won't be the case in Happy Valley. I've got the Ponies onto the second round for an all horse quarter final against the Broncos of Boise State. SMU beats Penn State 33-24. #PonyUP
#12 Clemson at #5 Texas
The Tigers stole an automatic bid with a game-winning field goal against SMU in the ACC Championship, launching them into the playoffs. They are rewarded with a trip to Austin to take on the Longhorns. Texas lost in overtime to Georgia in the SEC Championship, but are heavily favored to almost walk their way to the CFB semi-finals with the Tigers and the Sun Devils in their path. Many are calling this one of the easiest paths in the playoff, but they are soon to forget that Dabo Swinney knows a thing or two about winning in the playoffs. Clemson is certainly not the Tigers of pre-Covid, but this team has talent and forces mistakes. Two factors that can keep coaches up at night. Mistakes are the key word in this game, as Texas QB Quinn Ewers has been prone to making those from time to time. He's thrown 9 picks on the season (including 3 to Georgia over 2 games) and against the Aggies he needed the Longhorn defense to bail them out after he turned it over on back-to-back drives, including a pick 6. Plenty of Arch Manning rumors have been floating around and reports of BIG 10 schools offering Quinn multi-million dollar NIL deals to transfer to them next season. With all that weighing on his mind, he's got to deal with the Tigers' defense that has 33 sacks and 25 takeaways on the year. Clemson ranks 5th in turnover margin at +16 on the season, so any mistakes could be costly. Luckily for Ewers and the Longhorns, they have a tremendous defense of their own. If you're looking for big points in this game, I would look elsewhere. The Texas defense allows just 12.5 points per game on average and I saw their full strength in the multiple goal line stands they had against Texas A&M. The Aggies had so many opportunities for points in that game but came away with nothing. Cade Klubnik does a fabulous job of taking care of the rock, throwing just 5 picks this season. However, he needs support from the run game. I mentioned their struggles in running the ball against SMU in the ACC Championship, but that's been an issue in a few games this season. Texas will look to shut down Phil Mafah early, forcing Clemson into third and long situations. The over/under line is set at 50.5 in this one, and with the defenses playing the way they typically do, I would take the under. A tough one in Austin, but the Texas defense makes more stops than Clemson's and they send the Tigers home. Texas 20, Clemson 13.
#9 Tennessee at #8 Ohio State
The Buckeyes get to host a first round game at the Horseshoe as the Vols come in from Rocky Top. Ryan Day could potentially be coaching for his job, despite bringing his team to a playoff game, but regardless, the pressure is high in Columbus. Two dynamic offenses are set to be featured, but neither has fully lived up to the hype all season long. The Buckeyes were stonewalled against rival Michigan, putting up just 10 points and 252 total yards on offense. Their run game has been severely disappointing this season, despite a veteran offensive line and two of the most talented RBs in the nation toting the pill out of the backfield. Tennessee has done well in the run game behind RB Dylan Sampson (1,485 yards and 22 TDs), but their typically blazing air raid has been muted this year with limited without a star wideout in the mix. Nico Iamaleava has done well in his first season as a starter, but Ohio State's top ranked defense certainly won't be a walk in the park. This game has such a unique vibe to it because if Tennessee can cause havoc early, the crowd could turn on Ryan Day. With what has been dubbed the "best roster money can buy", it's been a very disappointing season for Buckeye faithful, especially losing to Michigan for the 4th time in a row despite being heavy favorites. Ohio State can win this game with their pass rush. They have 35 sacks on the season and Tennessee has given up 26. Although he's been a full year starter, Nico Iamaleava is still a young QB and with a chaotic road environment and some cold weather, a couple of early sacks could rattle him. Offensively, Will Howard needs to be the distributor and nothing more. Tennessee has the 5th best 3rd down defense in the nation, allowing just a 29.5% conversion rate. Will Howard needs to get the ball out of his hands and to his playmakers if they want to have a high conversion rate. Both Michigan and Indiana shut down WR Jeremiah Smith as he's racked up 8 catches for 69 yards and 1 TD over the past two games. If the run game isn't working, Smith and Emeka Egbuka (11 catches for 131 yards and 1 TD over the past two games) need to be heavily involved. This is a tricky pick, probably my toughest of the weekend. I like Ohio State at home, and I'm hoping we get the best playoff game of the weekend in this prime time spot. Buckeye offense wakes up and makes some big plays to win 31-27 over Tennessee at home.
Thanks for reading my predictions on the first round of playoff games and enjoy a very special college football weekend! Look for my Bowl Predictions post early next week.
#CFBKnowItAll
Alex Fernando
No comments:
Post a Comment