Merry Christmas Football Friends! My apologies for the delay on my predictions post and for missing a few bowl games. The schedule has been a bit hectic with holiday travel, but I wanted to make sure I got a post up ahead of the next few days as we have a tremendous slate of bowl games leading up to the College Football Playoff Quarterfinals. For the record, I went 0-3 on the bowl games I missed in this post as I picked Coastal, Fresno and San Jose State on my bowl sheet. Luckily I didn't write anything about those picks and we're going to move quickly past my disaster of SMU beating Penn State. Onto the picks for the bowl games starting today!
Current Bowl Record (Including 1st Round CFP): 9 - 5
GameAbove Sports Bowl
Pittsburgh vs Toledo
After starting 7-0, the Panthers of Pitt quickly fell to 7-5 after losing 5 straight in the back half of the season. A couple of those games were decided by 1 score against Virginia and Clemson, but they were both at home. On the road, Pitt was outscored 119-57 in their three losses at the end of the year. A bowl win would go a long way to salvaging a positive end to the season, but Toledo plays tough in bowl games. Despite winning just 1 of their last 4 bowl games, all of them have been 1-score and come down to the wire. The Rockets had a few games like that throughout the season and will look to make some big plays in the passing game to shred the Panthers. Pitt ranks 120th in the nation in pass defense while the Rockets average nearly 250 per game through the air. Star wideout Jerjuan Newton is playing in his final game as a Rocket and will look to break the 1,000 yard threshold to end his career on a high note. He needs just 51 more yards to accomplish that task and already has 11 TDs on the season, so look for him to be a big red zone threat. Neither team likes to run the ball much, but on the bright side, Pitt should have QB Eli Holstein back in the lineup. He's thrown for 2,225 yards and 17 TDs this season with 7 picks. Unfortunately, the difference maker in this game will be the transfer portal. With more than a dozen players, primarily on defense leaving Pitt over the last few weeks, the Panthers are more vulnerable than before and I think the Rockets can take advantage to put up some points. Finishing with TDs rather than FGs will be important, but I'll take Toledo to edge out Pitt 32-28. After I wrote this I learned Eli Holstein will not be playing and David Lynch will be starting at QB for Pitt.
Rate Bowl
Rutgers vs Kansas State
Ahead of playing Nebraska, Rutgers looked like another surprise team in the BIG 10 that could cause some damage. They ended up losing 4 in a row starting with the Huskers, but bounced back to win 3 of their last 4 to finish the season. Kansas State had Big XII Title hopes coming into the season, but growing pains for Avery Johnson proved to be a bit strenuous as they fell to 8-4 with losses to BYU, Houston, Arizona State and Iowa State. Three of those losses were in November which really hurt the Wildcats from being part of that Big XII Tiebreaker scenario. Regardless of how we got here, you'll get to see two of the better running backs in the nation that you probably haven't paid much attention to. Rutgers' Kyle Monangai and K-State's DJ Giddens will be the focal point of all defensive conversations in this matchup. Both are around 1,300 yards on the season and are punishing runners, enjoying contact and making defenders pay for weak tackle attempts. Monangai actually has better numbers than he did a year ago when he led the BIG 10 in rushing, this year he's second behind Iowa's Kaleb Johnson. Whichever team can clear a path for their bulldozing running back should win this game. K-State is boosted by the dual-threat ability of Avery Johnson and since their rush defense ranks 21st and Rutgers is 67th, I'll take the Wildcats to win 27-17. Found out after I wrote this that Monangai is no longer playing in the bowl game, so enjoy watching DJ Giddens and Avery Johnson run wild!
68 Ventures Bowl
Arkansas State vs Bowling Green
The Red Wolves and the Falcons meet for just the second time in history as the first one was in 1974 with the Falcons winning at home 17-0. BG fell just short of a MAC Championship bid by losing to Miami (OH) in the regular season finale, so there's plenty of energy waiting in this team to get back on the field and prove themselves. Junior TE Harold Fannin Jr. is the player to watch in this one because the 6'4, 230 lbs. tight end is a nightmare to defend. He's racked up 1,342 yards on 100 catches (both more than Tyler Warren) to go along with 9 TDs. He's also one of the best perimeter blockers you never heard of, sealing off lanes for the Falcon ground game. He is the rightful Mackey winner in my opinion (and many others that watch the sport), and he'll put it on full display against Arkansas State. The Red Wolves are prone to giving up long plays for big gashes. If they can't force some turnovers early, this one could get ugly. Arkansas State is a fairly young team as well but haven't fully found their footing under Butch Jones. I'm expecting a big game from Fannin and you'll all see why he should've won the Mackey Award for the nation's best Tight End. Falcons win 34-21.
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Oklahoma vs Navy
A very rough first season in the SEC for Boomer Sooner, but they did fulfill my prediction of being the team that knocks either Alabama or LSU out of the playoffs. They finished 6-6 in the third season under Brent Venables. Regardless of the injuries they were plagued by, this team was abysmal offensively. Oklahoma has always been known as one of the more prolific offensive powers in the nation, but ranked 121st in total offense this season and 95th in scoring offense. They've also been hit hard by the transfer portal as QB Jackson Arnold and many others have departed the program, leaving a lot of holes to be filled heading into next season, let alone this bowl game. Navy stumbled a bit toward the end, but finished strong with big wins over ECU and Army to close out their season. The triple option attack isn't a common one OU has to deal with, but defense has been their strength this season, so it will be best on best when the Midshipmen are on offense. Navy QB Blake Horvath has been dynamic all year, rushing for 1,099 yards with 15 TDs and throwing for another 1,261 yards and 13 TDs with just 4 picks. He does have a tendency to fumble from time to time, and the Sooners have picked up 12 fumbles on the season, so ball security will need to be a high priority. This might be a bit of a heart over head pick as the talent of Oklahoma should win out, but I think this Navy team has some tricks up their sleeve and Venables needs to do some serious work to the roster in the offseason. Give me the Midshipmen with their triple option attack to win 23-21.
Birmingham Bowl
Georgia Tech vs Vanderbilt
The Yellow Jackets and Commodores were both responsible for some of the most memorable upsets of the 2024 season. Georgia Tech opened things up with the Florida State shocker in Dublin and added the Miami upset late in the year that ultimately kept the Hurricanes out of the playoffs. They should've had another against Georgia, but couldn't finish it out and lost in 7 OTs. Vanderbilt knocked off #1 Alabama for one of the most shocking upsets in decades, and sparking a level of fame few can only imagine for QB Diego Pavia. Both teams do have a number of players in the portal, but the heart and soul is intact with both squads as these QBs due battle. Haynes King for GT and Pavia for Vandy are two of the grittiest, hard-nosed competitors you will find in this sport. Both do a tremendous job of holding onto the rock as King has just 1 pick on the year and Pavia has 4. They're also dynamic rushers who don't mind a little bit of contact. I am excited to watch this game because it will be a battle to the final whistle on every single play. Pavia is a great QB, but since last year I've been full aboard the hype train of Haynes King. The Yellow Jacket QB makes very accurate throws and gets up after every single hit, no matter what. Give me the Ramblin' Wreck of Georgia Tech to win 27-24.
AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Texas Tech vs Arkansas
The Red Raiders and Razorbacks renew an old rivalry as former members of the Southwest Conference. The Hogs own the series 29-8 all time, dominating most of the matchups while in the Southwest Conference. Looking to this game, I would expect some points. Both the Red Raiders and the Hogs average more than 30 points per game, with Texas Tech ranking 5th in the nation averaging 38.6. Neither team does well slowing opponents down, but Arkansas did hold Tennessee to just 14 and Texas to 20 earlier this year. There's a lot of talent with both of these programs, but QB Taylen Green for Arkansas and RB Tahj Brooks. There are quite a few players out for both injuries and portal transfers in this one, including TTU starting QB Behren Morton who is recovering from a surgery on his shoulder, so these two will be an extra focus in this game. Green transferred from Boise State and has done okay in the SEC, but nothing spectacular. He threw for 2,813 yards with 13 TDs and 9 picks while also adding another 7 TDs on the ground. Tahj Brooks is one of the best backs in the nation, rushing for more than 1,500 yards for the second consecutive season and adding 17 TDs to the tally this year. He's been a bit more effective catching passes out of the backfield, which bodes well for his pending NFL career. I'm always a bit partial to a dynamic RB, so I'll say Wreck 'Em and go Guns Up with the Red Raiders to win 37-35.
DirectTV Holiday Bowl
#21 Syracuse vs Washington State
If you like passing attacks, this is the game for you! Kyle McCord and the Orange take on the Cougars of Wazzu. Unfortunately for Washington State fans, star QB John Mateer has transferred to Oklahoma to help fix their QB needs, so they might not be very competitive as the game moves along. However, if you have yet to watch Kyle McCord and the Syracuse offense, you need to tune in. McCord is the nation's leading passer with 4,326 yards to go along with 29 TDs and 12 picks. He was picking apart Miami as they held the 'Canes out of the playoffs, and this team is just very fun to watch. They are a serious threat under Fran Brown in the ACC next year and could certainly make a playoff push with McCord at QB and some tune ups on defense. Keep an eye on this team in 2025, but enjoy their last game of 2024 with a 38-17 win over Wazzu.
SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
USC vs Texas A&M
One of the best helmet games we've got during bowl season takes place in Vegas as the Trojans and Aggies square off in a battle of big brands. The Aggies were one win away from the SEC Championship, but couldn't break through the vaunted Texas defense. They had opportunities to score, including multiple chances from the 1 yard line, but only came away with a pick six in that game. USC had a very rough season, but found their way to 6-6 after switching QBs to Jayden Maiava in the last part of the season. Texas A&M has been rolling with Marcel Reed at QB, so both young QBs have an opportunity to make a big statement heading into next season. While the Trojans don't have the defensive prowess of the Longhorns, they are significantly better this season ranking 56th in scoring defense as opposed to 121st from last season. They've racked up 10 interceptions on the season, so if they can contain Marcel Reed in the pocket and make him throw like Texas did, there's a path to victory. Both Reed and Maiava are deadly scramblers out of the pocket, so QB contain is a high priority. I'd love to see the BIG 10 step up here, but A&M's defense was giving Texas plenty of headaches and I think they're going to make some plays to swing this game. Should be fun to watch these young QBs and big brands battle it out in Vegas. I'll go with the Aggies to win 30-21.
Wasabi Fenway Bowl
UConn vs North Carolina
North Carolina has made arguably the biggest statement of the College Football Offseason by hiring 8-time Super Bowl Champion Head Coach Bill Belichick to lead them next season. The final year under Mac Brown was a bit of a disaster, especially defensively as UNC ranks 79th in total defense and 91st in scoring defense, allowing at least 28 points per game on average. UConn was my rebuild team for the College Football 25 video game, so I am a bit partial to the Huskies. However, separate of my National Championship with the team, they did well to finish 8-4 on the season in the third year under Jim Mora. They are led by Senior QB Joe Fagnano who has 1,480 passing yards on the season with 18 TDs and 4 picks. I really don't know what direction this game will go but again I'll go with my underrated star RB, Omarion Hampton from UNC. He's rushed for 1,660 yards and 15 TDs and averaged 8.4 yards per carry last game against NC State. He'll have another big day and the Tar Heels beat the Huskies 31-21.
Isleta New Mexico Bowl
Louisiana vs TCU
The Ragin' Cajuns were red hot this year winning 10 games for just the 4th time in program history. They fell to Marshall in the Sun Belt Championship, but are not a team to sleep on. They rank 11th in the nation with a +11 Turnover Margin and offensively rank 4th in the nation with a 93.1 % red zone scoring conversion rate. TCU will certain have their hands full in this one, but Sonny Dykes usually has this team amped up and ready. Sophomore Josh Hoover has racked up nearly 3,700 passing yards with 23 TDs and just 10 picks this season. He's got the Frogs rolling on a 3-game win streak and averaging 34.3 points per game on the season. Give me the Frogs and a wild victory video on social media for a 37-20 win.
Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl
Miami (OH) vs Colorado State
The Redhawks and Rams square off in the Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl which is just one of the many reasons why College Football is one of the greatest things on this planet. Both teams are fairly even on the stat sheet, especially with a balanced attack offensively. QBs Brett Gabbert (Miami) and Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi (CSU) have a couple years separating them, so we'll see if experience or youth wins out. Starting with the experience, Gabbert is finishing his 6th year as a Red Hawk and has more than 10,000 career passing yards with 80 TDs and 30 picks. Fowler-Nicolosi is finishing his second year as a starter for the Rams, and this year was a bit more lackluster than the first. He's short about 1,000 yards from last season and 9 TDs, but the Rams were running the ball more this season. I'll go with the Redhawks and we'll see Brett Gabbert finish his career with a big day. Miami (OH) defeats Colorado State 30-24.
Go Bowling Military Bowl
East Carolina vs North Carolina State
ECU bounced back quickly after winning just 2 games last season while NC State fell off a bit in 2024. With all they hype around the Woflpack, 6-6 is a bit tough to swallow. Half of their losses did come in 1 score games, but with some roster turnover, this team should be back to causing headaches in the ACC. Freshman QB CJ Bailey has the reigns after Grayson McCall retired from football earlier this season due to a myriad of head injuries. Bailey has done well, but has not had much protection, being sacked 21 times this season. The Pirates don't generate a ton of pressure, but this is a big opportunity for them in this game. Last key factor is to hand the ball off to Senior RB Rahjai Harris as he's averaging 5 yards per carry and is just 54 yards away from the 1,000 mark on the season. I'll take the Pirates as the Wolfpack rebuild and ECU wins 30-28.
Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Louisiana Tech vs Army
In place of the decimated Sun Belt Champs (Marshall), the Bulldogs of Louisiana Tech sub in to play Army in the Independence Bowl. Marshall's Head Coach left for Southern Miss (strange in-conference move to the bottom team after winning it) and along with injuries, multiple players are transferring out, so the Heard didn't have enough to play. Louisiana Tech actually ranks 30th in rush defense, so they could do well in holding down the Black Knights on offense. Army had a myriad of issues against rival Navy in the season finale, but I trust in QB Bryson Dailey. The Army star has more than 1,500 yards with 29 rushing TDs and added another 9 TDs and nearly 1,000 yards through the air. He's so difficult to shut down and I think he and Army will roll over the Bulldogs. GO ARMY as they win 35-14.
Pop-Tarts Bowl
#18 Iowa State vs #13 Miami
Arguably the greatest spectacle in the history of sports, the second rendition of the Pop-Tarts Bowl is set to take place this weekend in Orlando. Obviously the highlight of this bowl is the live mascot being lowered into the toaster and subsequently eaten by the winning team, but I suppose we could talk some football too. Miami just missed the playoffs after late season upset losses to Georgia Tech & Syracuse, but this is one of the most dynamic offenses in the nation led by Cam Ward. I loved watching Ward at Wazzu and his full potential has been unleashed with the Hurricanes this season. With 4,123 receiving yards, 36 TDs and 7 picks to go along with another 4 TDs and dynamic playmaking ability outside of the pocket, he's sure to be a top draft pick come April. He'll be up against the teeth of one of the Big XII's better defensive units. Matt Campbell and the Cyclones fly around to the ball and love to gang tackle so playmakers don't get away. They've forced 21 turnovers on the season and will look for a few more in this one. On the offensive side of the ball, they're looking to get back on track after a rough finish to the season. QB Rocco Becht is returning for 2025, so this is a good place to spark that campaign against a very vulnerable defense. The Hurricanes have been torched a few times this year, allowing teams to hang around or come back in games. There are no big opt-outs in this game, so I'll go with Cam Ward to light things up and win the game. Miami defeats Iowa State 37-28, but more importantly: Hot Fudge Sunday Pop-Tart is the one that's eaten!
Valero Alamo Bowl
#17 BYU vs #23 Colorado
Heisman winner Travis Hunter and star QB Shedeur Sanders aren't sitting out of the Alamo Bowl, so we should see plenty of points in this one. Despite my hatred for Colorado, I have to give my props to both Hunter & Sanders. Sanders especially proved me wrong this season and has been one of the more impressive QBs in the nation. We already knew about Travis Hunter's talent, and while I think Ashton Jeanty should have the Heisman hardware, there's no denying that he's made a big impact on this team. For the Cougars, Jake Retzlaff and company need to be ready for a barn burner. This game is likely to go punch for punch as both offenses have big play ability. There are plenty of arguments that BYU should've had a shot at the Big XII Title, but tiebreakers fell the way of the Cyclones. This is the opportunity for the Cougars to make a big statement and set up a narrative for next season. Defensively they're the better team, allowing just 20.1 points per game on average. The Cougars are also +9 in turnover margin, so expect this to be a close game with both teams forcing some take aways. Despite the compliments, I won't be picking Colorado. I think BYU is better than their losses against Kansas and Arizona State because a lot of the issues in those games were mistakes of their own. Cougars with the upset 33-31.
Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl
Boston College vs Nebraska
For the first time since I was a Junior in college, I get to watch my Huskers in a Bowl Game! Unfortunately as a Red Sox fan, I get to watch them play in Yankee Stadium, but I'll take it nonetheless. The Huskers have had a wild few weeks following their regular season loss to Iowa, losing Defensive Coordinator Tony White, hiring Dana Holgersen as OC and multiple transfer portal players both in and out of the program. Boston College had their own drama with QB Thomas Castellanos leaving the program mid-season after being benched. He's now at Florida State and former FIU Panther, Grayson James is the lead man for the Eagles. However, the biggest threat from Boston College is not on offense. Senior defensive end Donovan Ezeiruaku has racked up 16.5 sacks with 80 total tackles on the season. He's got 28 career sacks and is one of the more formidable pass rushers in the nation. For context, BC has 30 total sacks this season, so more than half have come from Ezeiruaku, which is 0.5 the top spot in the nation. The Husker O-line has had issues with pass protection for most of the year, as highlighted by the strip sack versus Iowa that ultimately led to the Husker loss. Emmett Johnson is my Husker key to victory because the ball needs to get out of Raiola's hand quickly. Running the ball effectively always mitigates a pash rush, but utilizing Emmett Johnson as a check down will be important to make sure Dylan isn't sacked. The offense has had a few weeks to game plan for this one, so I expect a few strong drives from Holgersen and company. Defensively, there are quite a few pieces now missing with the departure of Tony White. The Blackshirts will have a lot of young players in the mix, but no matter what, TACKLE LOW. The Huskers missed so many tackles against Iowa due to high tackling position. Boston College's lead RB averages 4.4 yards per carry with a 6'0, 220 lbs. frame. He won't go down easy and neither will Grayson James who is dangerous with his legs, already accounting for 3 rushing TDs in his few weeks as a starter. If the Huskers can get Emmett Johnson working early and keep Raiola's jersey clean, there are points to be had in this game. DO NOT let Ezeiruaku control the pocket and for all things holy, please take care of the ball. Huskers still have a lot of growing to do ahead of 2025, but this should be a step in the right direction. GO BIG RED for a 27-24 victory.
Thanks for reading my Bowl Predictions and stay read for more posts coming your way next week with more bowl games and the second round of the College Football Playoff!
#CFBKnowItAll
Alex Fernando
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