Hello College Football fans and welcome to Championship Week! It always goes by so fast, but we've reached the Conference Championships of the 2024 season. First round BYEs, playoff seeding and a lot more than just a fancy trophy on the line for teams this week. There are four conference newcomers are in each of the Power 4 Conference Championships, and we have a couple of rematches at the G5 level. This post will look at all the Conference Championship games as I give my analysis and predictions. There's still some shake ups that can occur with the playoff rankings, so let's see what CHAOS can be caused this weekend!
Rivalry Week Record: 22 - 7
Regular Season Record: 194 - 82 (70.3%)
Conference USA Championship
Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State
If you're feeling some dejavu, that's expected, these teams played last week. The Hilltoppers came away with a 19-17 victory at home, and now go on the road to do it all over again. My number 1 rule in college football is that you NEVER want to play a team twice. Jacksonville State is most certainly looking for revenge after a 50 yard field goal set up this rematch. WKU actually dominated most of the stats in this game, but ex-Husker QB Logan Smothers and the Gamecocks did rack up 229 yards on the ground. If they can improve from 2/13 on third down, they should be able to walk out as C-USA Champions. I'll follow my rule and go with Jacksonville State to win 26-21.
American Athletic Conference Championship
Tulane at #24 Army
Kicking Championship Weekend off Friday night, we have the American with Tulane at Army. Despite their big loss to Notre Dame, Army has not missed a step this season, and were knocking on the playoff door for a while. Unfortunately it would be very difficult for them to jump UNLV if both schools won, but an impressive season nonetheless. Tulane had a shot at the Playoffs as well, but a tumble against Memphis last week dashed their changes as the Tigers rushed for 236 yards in a 34-24 victory. The Green Wave uncharacteristically had 3 turnovers in that game, causing a lot of their issues. Typically Tulane gives up half that rushing total on the ground per game, but now face the Black Knights and their top ranked ground game. I think Memphis laid out a good game plan for Army, and the run game is the big difference maker as Army wins the American with a ground and pound 27-20 victory.
Mountain West Conference Championship
#20 UNLV at #10 Boise State
A College Football Playoff spot is on the line in the Mountain West as UNLV and Boise State rematch on the Smurf Turf. A win would likely guarantee the Broncos a first round BYE while an upset would move UNLV into the final playoff spot as the last conference champion in the field. Boise won the first matchup in late October in Vegas. Ashton Jeanty had his worst game of the season with 128 yards and 1 TD, also suffering an elbow injury in that game. Maddux Madsen completed just 54.5% of his passes for 209 yards and 1 TD in that game, so he'll be looking for a bounce back performance as well. For the Rebels, Hajj-Malik Williams is the focal point of their offense, especially with his dual threat ability. The Broncos will once again have their hands full with him, but I'm going to break my rule. Typically I have a strong and fast rule against playing an opponent twice in a season and it having go your way both times. However, a true Heisman opportunity presents itself for Ashton Jeanty tonight, and with a big night from him, the Broncos earn a first round BYE in the Playoffs. Boise State 31, UNLV 27. Give Jeanty the Heisman!
Mid-America Conference (MAC) Championship
Ohio vs Miami (OH)
Despite all the NIL money spent on the roster, the only teams from Ohio to make a conference championship game are the Bobcats and the Redhawks. An in-state rivalry only adds fuel to the fire for the MAC Championship as Ohio and Miami (OH) square off for more than just the 'Battle of Bricks'. These teams met in mid-October as the Redhawks came away with a 30-20 victory. Ohio made a strong comeback in the 4th quarter, cutting the lead to 10, but the Red Hawks had it in control for most the game. Miami (OH) racked up 3 sacks, 4 tackles for loss and 8 pass deflections in that game, reeking havoc on the line of scrimmage. The Bobcats have been flawless since that game, winning 4 straight by an average margin of 27 points. The Bobcats are 0-5 in MAC Championship games, while the Red Hawks are looking to defend their title from last year. My heart wants to pick Ohio and follow my rule, but I'm going to break it again and give a nod to the Red Hawks. MAC Champions once again following a rugged 23-17 victory.
Sun Belt Conference Championship
Marshall at Louisiana
The Ragin' Cajuns and The Thundering Heard are set to battle for the Sun Belt as the only conference that still has divisions. Both teams would've been in regardless, but the divisions are good to see so we don't have to worry about so many tie-breakers. Both teams have dynamic QBs that take very good care of the football. Junior Braylon Braxton leads Marshall with more than 1,400 yards passing and a 17:2 TD to INT ratio. He's added another 544 yards on the ground and 4 TDs. When he breaks contain of the pocket, big plays happen. On the other side, Senior Ben Wooldridge has just shy of 2,400 yards with 17 TDs to 5 picks. While not as dynamic of a runner, he's added 5 TDs on the ground. Both of these offenses can put up quite a few points, both averaging over 31 per game. I'll take the Ragin' Cajuns playing at home to win 42-35.
Big XII Conference Championship
#16 Iowa State vs #15 Arizona State
As predicted, the Big XII had the wildest and most ridiculous path to the two conference championship contenders. A lot of tiebreakers had to be used to get us a matchup between Iowa State and Arizona State, but the Cyclones and Sun Devils are set for a battle to decide who earns the final conference champion playoff birth. Starting with the Sun Devils, they were picked DEAD LAST to compete in the Big XII this season, but now sit just 60 minutes away from the playoff. A tremendous season for Kenny Dillingham and his staff. The do-it-all running back, Cam Skattebo is the man to watch as he makes plays in so many different ways. He averages 5.7 yards per carry and has 17 rushing touchdowns on the season, while adding another 2 receiving. He'll be one of the toughest tests for the Cyclones and their 96th ranked rush defense. However, they don't give up many points with just an average of 19.6 points per game allowed, so you need to make the most of your drives against Iowa State. Offensively, this game will ultimately be determined by the play of Rocco Becht. The Cyclone gunslinger completed just 37.1% of his passes against K-State last week, but had 2 TDs. Typically he's throwing for upwards of 250 yards, but ASU averages a 1:1 ratio on passing TDs allowed to interceptions with 14 a piece. This should be one of the more intriguing games to watch, and I've got Iowa State pushing into the Playoffs with a 33-24 victory.
Southeastern Conference (SEC) Championship
#5 Georgia vs #2 Texas
Another rematch is set for Atlanta as Georgia welcomes Texas into familiar territory for the Dawgs. The Longhorns handled business on the road in Aggieland last week with a dominant defensive performance while the Bulldogs narrowly escaped a disastrous loss to Georgia Tech by outlasting them in 8 overtimes. In round one of this battle, Georgia's defensive front commanded everything and recorded 7 sacks, 10 tackles for loss, 6 pass deflections and 1 interception. The only reason the score was respectable is because Carson Beck threw 3 picks. Now Texas' defense showed quite a bit in that win against A&M, not allowing a single offensive point, holding on forth down multiple times throughout the game and adding a lot of pressure to Marcel Reed. I expect a lot of defense in round 2 for this game, but I do not trust Carson Beck to get the job done. I'm following my rule this time and I'll take the Longhorns in the rematch to win the SEC as a newcomer. Texas 23, Georgia 17.
BIG 10 Conference Championship
#3 Penn State vs #1 Oregon
Penn State falls into the BIG 10 Conference Title game following Ohio State's loss to Michigan, and now have a shot at the first round BYE despite accomplishing very little in terms of resume building wins throughout the season. In a way, they seem like one of the most forgotten teams in the playoffs, and they're either sitting with a BYE or likely hosting a game following this one, so not a bad spot to be. Their offense has been lackluster all season outside of Tyler Warren at Tight End. He's just shy of 1,000 receiving yards to go with 6 TDs and has rushed in another 4 on the ground. Oregon is led by Dillon Gabriel at QB with nearly 3,300 pass yards and a 24:6 TD to INT ratio. However, I've said it a few times already this year, but the X-factor player is RB Jordan James. His 5.7 yards per carry wears down opposing defenses throughout the game and he's the reason Oregon is so successful on 3rd down. They rank 7th in the nation converting 49.67% of their 3rd downs. James help keep the offense on pace with the chains and if you don't gang tackle him he will run through the first few defenders. Penn State's defense is tough, but they need to find a way off the field when Oregon has the ball. A couple turnovers could tip this game, but I like Oregon to win behind another big performance from Jordan James and the Ducks defensive line getting pressure. Oregon 22, Penn State 14. Another conference newbie takes the crown in their first season.
Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC) Championship
#17 Clemson vs #8 SMU
The "bid-stealing" Clemson Tigers could jump into the playoffs with a win and potentially secure a first round BYE depending on some of the other conference championship games. The perennial ACC power are challenged by a newcomer, rising from the G5 ranks to go unbeaten in conference play in their first year of "big boy ball". Rhett Lashlee and the Pony Express have been overlooked all season long and now have a statement opportunity on the biggest stage. The Mustangs are 11-1 with their only loss coming by 3 to the 10-2 BYU Cougars. They are lead by a dynamic QB (and my 2025 Heisman front-runner) in Kevin Jennings. His movements are so smooth and eerily similar to a former ACC star, Lamar Jackson. Now there's still plenty of a gap between those two players, but if you watch this game you'll start to see what I'm talking about. Clemson has a rugged run game that is looking to impose their will, averaging 190 yards per game on the ground. My key factors in this game are penalties and big plays. The Ponies are 3rd to last in the nation for penalties, averaging more than 8 per game for over 80 yards. However, they make up for that with big plays, ranking 19th with 67 plays of 20+ yards. Defensively, the Tigers are not what they once were, giving up 62 plays this season of 20+ yards for a 107th ranking in that category. Arguably my boldest prediction of the season was that the ACC would get 2 teams to the playoff and one would be SMU. Miami being ranked behind Alabama could dash that full prediction, but Pony Up, because I've got SMU winning the ACC and causing some havoc in the Playoffs. Mustangs beat the Tigers 36-30.
Thank you for reading my Conference Championship Week Predictions. I hope you enjoy another great weekend of football and are excited for the Playoffs to be set!
#CFBKnowItAll
Alex Fernando
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