Week 12 Results: 15 - 11
Overall Results: 161 - 68
Week 11 Predictions:
#2 Indiana at Penn State
The Hoosiers and Nittany Lions meet for a Big Noon showdown in Happy Valley. Unfortunately it's not quite the heavyweight battle we anticipated early in the season, but strange things happen in the BIG 10 in November. Indiana comes in off of back-to-back performances where they outscored their opponents 111-16. This team is absolutely rolling and Penn State has lost 5 straight including both games since firing HC James Franklin. They're playing backup QB Ethan Grunkemeyer and this team is not in it. They have a shot at a bowl game if they win out against Michigan State, Nebraska and Rutgers, but that's about it because Indiana is not going to stop. Fernando Mendoza for the Hoosiers is one of your Heisman frontrunners and with more than 2,100 passing yards and 25 TDs with just 4 picks it's easy to see why. Indiana keeps rolling and wins this one 48-21.
#5 Georgia at Mississippi State
The Battle of the SEC Bulldogs takes place in Starkville, Mississippi as State hosts Georgia. There will be a heavy dose of cowbells to distract Gunnar Stockton and the Georgia offense. They've been able to pull a few games out of the fire, but they always keep winning. At the beginning of the season I predicted Georgia would lose 3 games and miss the College Football Playoffs. They only have a few games left, so we'll see if that prediction comes true. Mississippi State has been upset minded all season long, but always seems to fall short. They took Tennessee to double overtime and had a 17 points lead over Texas in the 4th quarter before falling in overtime. Blake Shapen and this offense has the ability to put up points, and Georgia's defense has weak points. They rank 65th in the nation for pass defense, so I would expect a heavy dose of air raid and points. Mississippi State won their first SEC game since 2023 last week over Arkansas and could have momentum. Teams always get exposed in November, and we need some more chaos. Give me the upset and I'll take the Mississippi State Bulldogs to win 33-31. HAIL STATE!
#7 BYU at #8 Texas Tech
The Cougars and Red Raiders have a high noon showdown in Lubbock for the inside track to the Big XII Championship. TV deals have taken the opportunity away for this to be a prime time game on Saturday night, but regardless, this is one of the most exciting matchups of the Big XII season. Both teams have fabulous defenses that love nothing more than forcing turnovers. BYU is +10 on the season and Texas Tech is +8. Whoever takes care of the rock will certainly be winning this game. Offensively, the Red Raiders get QB Behren Morten back, but he's battled a few injuries throughout the season, so extra protection may be needed as their back-up QB is now out for the season with a torn ACL. Look for the back or tight end to stay in for extra blockers, giving the Cougars an extra defender in the secondary. Freshman QB Bear Bachmeier leads the BYU offense and his dual-threat ability is one of the key difference makers. He's rushed for over 400 yards with 9 TDs and is their number 1 option in the redzone with RPOs. Texas Tech's defense is one of the best in the nation and I think they'll show it today. Texas Tech wins in a rugged game 23-20. Guns Up, WRECK 'EM!
JMU at Marshall
The Dukes are very much in the Playoff picture as the American Conference continues to eat itself alive. JMU has been rolling through Sun Belt competition and have the opportunity to make another statement this weekend. Marshall was torched on the road last weekend against the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers despite a hot start, losing 44-27. The Dukes give up an average of 16.1 points per game and Marshall won't be able to move much against this defense flying around. Give me JMU over Marshall with a road victory 34-14.
Southern Miss at Arkansas State
Staying in the Sunbelt, the West Division has its top 2 teams squaring off in Jonesboro with the Golden Eagles and the Red Wolves. Southern Miss could potentially play their way into the College Football Playoffs with a hot streak and some help, so don't sleep on this team. Charles Huff came over this season from Marshall after winning the conference title last year and having a contract dispute with the school. He may be looked at for some of the open Power 4 jobs, but for now he just keeps winning. Arkansas State has a dynamic player in Junior QB Jaylen Raynor, but he'll have his hands full with a Southern Miss defense that has 21 sacks on the season. Raynor has some dual-threat ability to avoid pressure though, rushing for over 300 yards with 7 TDs on the ground to go with his 11 passing TDs. Southern Miss will keep that pressure on him to score though, as their offense is led by QB Braylon Braxton who's got 19 total TDs and has the Golden Eagles averaging 33 points per game. Southern Miss is one of the under-appreciated teams in the nation, and I'm showing them some love. Golden Eagles 31, Red Wolves 21.
#3 Texas A&M at #22 Missouri
The Aggies are ranked 3rd in the nation and look to be on their way to the College Football Playoffs as long as the wheels don't fall off. Missouri jumped to the SEC with A&M back in 2011 and is very much looking to spoil the season for the Aggies. Unfortunately they lost QB Beau Pribula for the season and will be starting a freshman against the Aggie defense. Texas A&M ranks 4th in the nation with 32 sacks on the season and 1st in opponent 3rd down conversions, allowing just 22.22%. Missouri's offense is about to be put in a blender and while that's happening Marcel Reed is going to bomb it over the top to KC Conception and Mario Carver for some big points. This feels like easy money with A&M only covering -6.5, we'll see if they live up to they hype. Gig 'Em Aggies as they romp the Tigers 38-14.
#9 Oregon at #20 Iowa
The Ducks and the Hawkeyes battle in Kinnick as the BIG 10 looks to add another team or two into the Playoff mix. It's going to be cold and rainy in Iowa City today, so the elements heavily favor the home team. They'll look to muck up this game and slow down the Oregon offense. The Hawkeyes always have a great defense and this year is no different. They're currently ranked 3rd in the nation for total defense and will look to force Oregon QB Dante Moore into a few mistakes. The Ducks have been quiet since their lost to Indiana at home, and need a statement win to get back in to the playoff mix. Their defense is no slouch either though, ranking 11th in opponent 3rd down conversions with just over 30% allowed. Iowa needs to keep their down and distances short because we know they don't have much of a passing attack. If Oregon can shut down the run early and keep the chains long for the Hawkeyes, they'll win this game. A true BIG 10 West vibe which means the first team to 20 likely wins. Give me the Ducks and their defense to make a statement 24-17.
Duke at UConn
Another under-appreciated team to take a look at is the UConn Huskies. Jim Mora has them bowl eligible for the 4th time in 5 years after most people thought this program was dead. His QB Joey Fagano has yet to throw an interception on the season and the Huskies have the second-leading receiver in the nation in Skylar Bell with 994 yards and 11 TDs. They'll have a big test with Duke coming into East Hartford, and if you get a chance this could be one of the most exciting games of the day. UConn also features a dynamic rushing attack behind Cam Edwards and his 5.7 yards per carry. Duke is led by Darian Mensah with 21 TDs and just 2 picks on the season. Both teams love to take the ball away with Duke at +5 and UConn at +10 in turnover margin. I'm riding with the Huskies at home because they need some love and they're one of my dynasty teams in the College Football 25 video game. UConn wins 35-31.
Kansas at Arizona
The Jayhawks have really struggled in the middle of this season, losing 3 of their last 5 games. Arizona is at a similar mark, but those losses have been close against some of the best teams in the conference. KU has been stomped on by some of those teams and now have to go on the road into a tough environment in the desert. The QBs will be the feature of this game as Jaylon Daniels and Noah Fafita lead their respective offenses. Both of them take care of the ball well and use their legs to avoid pressure and pick up first downs. This pick is purely eye-test but I like Arizona in the desert to win 36-28.
Iowa State at TCU
Another middle of the road Big XII battle taking place in Fort Worth as Iowa State travels to take on the Horned Frogs. With pure chaos (as the Big XII often provides), TCU isn't completely out of title contention yet. The Cyclone have lost 4 straight after their hot start in September, and injuries have decimated this team. They have struggled against the pass due to these injuries being particularly bad in the secondary. TCU loves to air it out and Josh Hoover is still putting up big numbers with more than 2,300 yards to go with 22 TDs and 6 picks.
Auburn at #16 Vanderbilt
The Tigers have fired Hugh Freeze and now travel to Nashville to take on a very pissed off Commodores team. Vandy fell short in their comeback against Texas last week as the onside kick recovery slipped through their fingers. They're still very much in the mix for the Playoffs with a bit of help, but a statement against Auburn would get them back on track as well. The Tigers' defense has been sensational all year, one of the 3 teams to not allow any opponent over 24 points. The offense has been a different story, and ultimately is why Freeze was fired. With top tier wideouts like Cam Coleman and Eric Singleton Jr., everyone expected more. We'll see how they open things up this week as Vanderbilt was torched against the Longhorns in Austin. I don't think that's happening twice and I believe Diego Pavia and Vandy still have some magic in them. Commodores 27, Tigers 21.
#23 Washington at Wisconsin
Normally I'd say any west-coast BIG 10 team traveling to Badger town would be in for a rough day, but this Wisconsin squad is a disaster. They've doubled down on Luke Fickell and are planning to put more resources into the program for him, but that doesn't help with this season. They've scored just 27 points combined from the last five games, and that won't cut it against the Huskies. Demond Williams Jr. has the offense averaging 35.5 points per game and he should put up big numbers today. Senior RB Jonah Coleman looks to add to his 13 TDs on the season and should run all over the Badger defense. Give me Washington to win on the road 28-14.
Wake Forest at #14 Virginia
The Demon Deacons were throttled on the road against Florida State last week while a pick-6 gave the Cavaliers their first double-digit point win since they beat Stanford back in September. Virginia knows how to pull out those close games though and Wake will be another test. If the Cavaliers can start hot and put up points early, they'll be in good shape. If the Demon Deacons hang around into the 4th quarter, this is a dangerous upset brewing in the ACC. The Cavaliers have their path to the ACC Championship and Playoffs laid out ahead, but they need to take it one game at a time and hang onto the rock. I think this Virginia team has something special and they win at home 30-23 over the Demon Deacons.
California at #15 Louisville
The Golden Bears are looking to play spoiler as they travel east to take on Louisville. The Cardinals are one of the MANY teams in the mix for the ACC title which almost certainly will come down to tiebreakers. Jeff Brohm's crew doesn't want to think about that, they just want to play ball. Statistically these teams match up fairly well, but that's a long road trip for Cal and I predicted before the season those East coast games would not go there way. Louisville wins 33-21.
LSU at #4 Alabama
Typically one of the biggest matchups of the season has a little less fire to it as the Tigers get set for their first game without Brian Kelly as their Head Coach. Bama has been rolling since the opening loss to Florida State and look to get back to the SEC Championship. Some teams get a boost after firing their coach, and LSU's offense has playmakers to make that happen. However, I'm not sure they'll have enough to keep up with Ty Simpson and Bama's offense. The Tide are averaging 34 points per game and while their run game has been lackluster, Simpson rarely misses a throw. Roll Tide over the Tigers 34-20.
San Diego State at Hawaii
The Aztecs are quietly waiting in the G5 crowd to take the Playoff bid with a stifling defense, allowing just 10 points per game to opponents. They've got a road game against a sneaky Rainbow Warriors team who's already bowl eligible and looking for more. That's a long flight even from San Diego, and Hawaii has the Tokyo Toe, starting Kicker Kansei Matsuzawa. He's 21/21 on the season and could set an NCAA record if he continues to kick like that. I'm thinking he'll kick well, but overall Hawaii will struggle to get into the endzone against SDSU. A tricky road game late at night, but give me the Aztecs 21-6.
Nebraska at UCLA
TJ Lateef is headed back to California and he'll be the starting QB for my Huskers in a late night showdown at the Rose Bowl. The Compton native takes over for the injured Dylan Raiola and we'll see if he can spark this offense. My rule for the Huskers this season was to score 30-35 points per game if they wanted to win this season. In the past 3 games, Nebraska has averaged 17. UCLA has been on a bit of a hot streak since firing DeShaun Foster apart from being stomped by Indiana two weeks ago. I'm hoping the Bruins burned up their offensive firepower already, but Nico Iamaleava is very dangerous with the ball in his hands. Nebraska's defense has done well to shut down opposing offenses and need to force turnovers to keep things easier on TJ Lateef. If Nebraska can score early and give Lateef a cushion rather than playing from behind, I'll feel much better watching this game. Emmett Johnson has crossed over 1,000 rushing yards on the season, the first time a Nebraska back has done this since Devine Ozigbo in 2018. He needs to be given the rock at least 25 times in this game and the Huskers need to lean on their run game. I'm excited to see TJ Lateef and I'm going against my late night travel rule and picking the Huskers. I'm sure this one will be stressful and it could go off the rails, but I have faith! Under the lights in the Rose Bowl: Nebraska 24, UCLA 21. GO BIG RED!
Quick Hit Predictions:
#1 Ohio State at Purdue: The Buckeyes won't be tested until the game with Michigan, so we can pray for a Spooky Train but I don't see it today. Ohio State 37, Purdue 10.
Maryland at Rutgers: Maryland and Rutgers meet in Piscataway for a BIG 10 game that could be a track meet. No defense, lots of points... give me the home team! Scarlet Knights 37, Terrapins 33.
Stanford at North Carolina: The Tar Heels finally got over the hump and made a statement against Syracuse last week winning 27-10. They're getting hot and I like Stanford, but that's a long way to travel. UNC 28, Stanford 17.
Florida State at Clemson: It's insane that this is a game between two teams toward the bottom of the ACC. Both teams are messy, but Clemson looks more messy and they've been tragic at home. Give me the 'Noles to win on the road 38-34.
Navy at #10 Notre Dame: The Irish are ranked in the CFB Playoff rankings at #10, squarely in the field if they handle their business. The Midshipmen haven't won in South Bend since 2009 and Marcus Freeman doesn't mess around when playing the service academies. They've been prepping for this game since the Spring and Notre Dame wins 34-14.
Thanks for reading my Week 11 Predictions and enjoy a fabulous day of College Football. GO BIG RED!
USC at Nebraska - 4th Quarter Light Show
USC at Nebraska - Blackout
Pregame Tailgate with Taylor Pike, Alisa Smith and Adam Wagler
USC Trojan Truck
Huskers 4th Quarter Light Show
#CFBKnowItAll
Alex Fernando
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