Week 12 Predictions

      As we creep further into November, the chaos continues to build throughout College Football. This seems like a weekend where business should be handled, especially with so many ranked teams playing lower tier conference opponents at home. However, this is when the cracks in a team are not only found, but exposed. We could see some interesting upsets as we move into the final few weeks of the season, and more chaos will ensue. This post highlights all the games to keep an eye on this weekend along with my predictions. I'll do my best to get some reflections and CFB Playoff Predictions up soon, but I appreciate you all for reading and hope you have a fabulous College Football Saturday.

Week 11 Results: 15 - 7 (68.2%)

Overall Results: 176 - 75 (70.1%)

Week 12 Predictions:

South Carolina at #3 Texas A&M

     It's hard to stay quiet as the #3 team in the nation, and while the Aggies are starting to get some serious conversation about them, they've still been secondary compared to other teams in the SEC and around the nation. I'm sure Mike Elko wouldn't have it any other way, but I've been on this team since their road win at Notre Dame. The defense has had a couple of scares, but they always seem to make the right play at the right time. Most importantly, Marcel Reed has been fabulous this season. More than 2,500 total yards and combined 25 TDs with just 6 interceptions. He makes very good decisions and while isn't getting many Heisman looks this year, he's my lead pick for next season. The Gamecocks season has been derailed by injuries and poor offensive line play. The hype deflated quickly, and it's likely they're not making a bowl game. However, this is the weekend where a game like this could be a surprise upset. All the focus is on Georgia, Texas, Alabama and Oklahoma for their games. A&M doesn't want stories about them this week, so they take care of business. Beware of this pass rush, they rank 2nd in the nation with 34 sacks on the season. Gig 'Em 42-17.

#18 Michigan at Northwestern

     A very sneaky lurker in the Playoff conversation is the Michigan Wolverines. They've got road games against the Wildcats and the Terrapins before hosting the Buckeyes to finish. With the 13th best scoring defense allowing just over 17 points per game they likely won't be tested until the big one with Ohio State. The Wildcats are coming off back to back losses with a BYE week in between to my Huskers and USC on the road. They host the Wolverines at Wrigley Field, but I would expect some struggles on offense. Michigan's defensive prowess is already mentioned, but to double down on it the Wildcats have yet to score more than 22 points against a Power 4 opponent. Bryce Underwood has a couple more games to get some practice in before he faces a truly aggressive defense like Ohio State, so lean on the run game and get him good play-action pass looks. Wolverines 31, Northwestern 17.

#24 South Florida at Navy

     The Bulls are in the driver seat for the G5 playoff bid, but the American Conference isn't clinched yet. There are 5 different teams with just 1 conference loss, and they don't all play each other. These two will look to knock each other out of contention today and it's the perfect place for an upset. South Florida will be heavily favored the rest of the way, but that triple option is not to be overlooked. It's a question on if Midshipmen QB Blake Horvath will play, but I don't think they'll be able to hold up against the Bulls regardless. USF ranks 23rd against the run and offensively I think they'll create some big plays over the top of Navy. South Florida wins on the road over Navy 27-14.

Arizona at #25 Cincinnati

     The Wildcats are looking to Bear Down as they take on the Bearcats who need to get back in the Big XII Playoff conversation. Cincy has a BIG game with BYU next week at home, so the trap is set with Arizona coming in. You certainly don't want to over look the Wildcats as Brett Brennan's team took BYU to overtime and lost by 3 to Houston. The last we saw of Cincy they were moving the ball fairly well against Utah, but could not put up any points. Bearcat QB Brendan Sorsby completed just 33% of his passes and struggled to get the ball out to his playmakers. Arizona QB Noah Fafita has been very impressive with 2,200 passing yards to go with 23 TDs and just 4 picks. He hasn't had star wideout Tetairoa McMillan this season, but has done very well to spread the ball around to teammates all over the field. I've really enjoyed this Arizona team and glad we'll see them in the post-season, but next week has a lot of story behind it if Cincy takes care of business. Wildcats give them a scare, but the Bearcats avoid the trap game at home and win 30-24.

Arkansas at LSU (Battle for the Golden Boot Trophy)

     Two interim coaches will do battle as the Boot-shaped Golden Trophy replicating both states of Arkansas and Louisiana is up for grabs. These are two of the 4 SEC schools with coach vacancies and I'm anxious to see who steps up in this one. The Tigers benched star QB Garrett Nussmeier late in the game against Alabama, but the Razorbacks couldn't stop a 3rd grade offense let alone LSU's. I would expect a high-scoring affair as the Hogs look for their first SEC win of the season. LSU has lost 3 in a row and it seems like their offense is in shambles. Even in Tiger Stadium, I think we're gonna see some Woo Pig magic today. Bobby Petrino is trying to coach his way out of the interim title and a strong offensive performance with a rivalry win on the road would be good for his resume. Give me Arkansas to pull the upset in Death Valley. Razorbacks win 38-35 behind a fabulous performance from Taylen Green.

UCF at #6 Texas Tech

     Texas Tech did not shy away from the spotlight last week after hosting College Gameday and the BYU Cougars. The Red Raiders suffocated the BYU offense, allowing just 255 yards and 7 points. Their defense is as good as any in the nation and if QB Behren Morton can stay healthy. Scott Frost and the UCF Knights come to Lubbock looking to keep bowl game hopes alive. I have always enjoyed UCF, but now enjoy watching Scott Frost lose more, so this should be a good one for me. The Knights are a very young team though, so look for them to build momentum for next season as we finish 2025. Guns Up & Wreck 'Em as the Red Raiders win 38-10.

NC State at #15 Miami

     The Hurricanes have been caught up in a storm the last few weeks with a couple of close conference losses, and now they're on the outside looking in. They need some help to not only make the ACC Championship, but the Playoffs as well. The Wolfpack just knocked off unbeaten Georgia Tech a couple weeks ago and now come in rested to play a Miami team who is starting to rip at the seams. I knew I was wrong to give Carson Beck his flowers as he's thrown 6 interceptions in the two losses. He struggles in the big moments and without a run game to lean on the offense becomes very one-dimensional. The Wolfpack rank 2nd to last in pass defense though, so Beck has an opportunity to bounce back with a statement. NC State is led by QB CJ Bailey and RB Hollywood Smothers, who missed the Georgia Tech game. Bailey accounted for nearly 400 yards of offense alone against the Yellow Jackets, but Miami's front is a bit more formidable. They've got 24 sacks on the season and while I don't think the Hurricanes will get to the playoffs, their defensive front will win them this game. Wolfpack hang around but Miami wins 31-21.

Penn State at Michigan State (Battle for the Land Grant Trophy)

     Both the Nittany Lions and the Spartans are winless in BIG 10 play, setting up a pride battle with the Land Grant Trophy on the line. Defensively, Penn State holds a significant advantage in this game. They nearly knocked off Indiana last week and were a menace in the backfield against Fernando Mendoza. They had 3 sacks and 8 tackles for loss against the Hoosiers, and now face the Spartans who rank 124th in the nation already allowing 30 sacks. Michigan State looked better after benching QB Aiden Chiles in favor of Freshman QB Alessio Milivojevic. Milivojevic threw for 311 and 1 TD against Minnesota while completing 20/28 passes and keeping the offense on schedule. Jonathan Smith's seat is getting extremely hot in East Lansing, but with the recent penalties from Mel Tucker recruiting violations, it could be difficult to attract a coach there if they do decide to fire him. First thing is first, they need to try and stop the Penn State rushing attack, and their defense ranks in the middle of the road at 66th against the run. Give me Penn State in a very impressive performance on defense with a lot of QB pressure. Nittany Lions win 28-10.

#21 Iowa at #17 USC

     The BIG 10's biggest game of the weekend takes place out west in LA as the Hawkeyes travel to take on the Trojans. Iowa is looking to spoil USC's playoff hopes a week early as a trip to Eugene looms next week. Don't you dare overlook the pesky black and gold from the heartland, this Iowa squad will ALWAYS find your weakness and bring it to light. Their defense ranks 4th in the nation and loves to muck up games against opposing offenses. I saw first-hand how Nebraska was able to shut-down the #1 offense in the nation (now technically #2 by 0.9 yard), and Iowa is looking to do just the same. If the Trojans want to avoid falling into the pit of despair that the Hawkeyes somehow call football, they need to start fast. If Iowa hangs around in the game, it could be a bad day for USC. The weather is much more Iowa-like than LA-like today out west, so look for USC to get Jayden Maiava on the move and allow him to use his legs. Iowa nearly knocked off Oregon last week, but that was in Kinnick. It's not a late night game, but traveling out west is always tricky. I think the Trojans learned some lessons in Lincoln and will look to get out of the gate quickly and be a bit more aggressive on offense. I'll take USC to Fight On and beat Iowa in the Coliseum 24-14.

#19 Virginia at Duke

     The Cavaliers fell to the Demon Deacons last week and now need a bit of help to get back into the Playoff picture. QB Chandler Morris left the game last week with an injury which brought in former Husker QB Daniel Kaelin. Kaelin played well but was unable to fully spark the offense. Duke fell to UConn (as I predicted), but Darian Mensah has this offense scoring more than 35 points per game. If Morris can't go, the Virginia offense likely won't have enough firepower to keep pace, and I don't know if their defense will be able to stop the Blue Devils. The magic for Virginia may be finished as the Duke Blue Devils win this one at home 33-28.

Memphis at East Carolina

     Memphis likely lost their playoff chances with the late Friday loss to Tulane last week, but a 3rd straight season with double-digit wins is on the table as they travel to Greenville, NC to take on the Pirates. East Carolina has been one of my upset-minded dark horses in the American this season, and are looking to continue sailing their pirate ship to the conference championship game. They'll face 3 of the best offenses in the American to finish the season, starting with hosting the Tigers. ECU QB Katin Houser has been on fire lately, throwing 7 TDs with 1 pick over the last 4 games. The Tigers gave up 332 pass yards to Jake Retzlaff last week and I think ECU will find similar success. Give me some chaos in the American and let the Pirates get in the mix for the conference title. Pirates beat the Tigers 33-31.

Florida at #7 Ole Miss

     The Rebels are squarely in the Playoff mix as long as they don't overlook their final two opponents in Florida and Mississippi State. They host the Gators today and it looks like they've given up on the season after losing to Kentucky 38-7. Ole Miss had the annual SEC cupcake in late November as they defeated Citadel 49-0 last week, but it's always a good to get extra players some minutes and keep guys healthy late in the season. Trinidad Chambliss should have another good showing as the Gator defense ranks 60th in pass defense, but they also gave up over 220 yards on the ground. Look for Ole Miss to get Sophomore RB Kewan Lacy going early as they want to establish a good rushing attack heading into the end of the year and the playoffs. Rebels win 34-17.

#13 Utah at Baylor

     The Utes are hoping for a bit of help as they want a rematch with Texas Tech in the Big XII Championship. They travel to Waco as Dave Aranda and the Bears are trying to hang on at the end of the season. There's some extra drama as Baylor's AD has stepped away from both that role and the CFB Playoff Committee Chair position. It's unclear of what Aranda's future looks like, but this season has certainly been disappointing to say the least. Utah does well to beat the teams they're supposed to, and they did flex a bit on Cincy a couple weeks ago. The Bears have a lot of weapons on offense, but Utah's defense will look to get after QB Sawyer Robertsen and get him off schedule. They've got 25 sacks on the season and will look to add to that total. I think Baylor will hang around a bit longer than expected, but Utah will dominate time of possession and keep them at arms length. Utes win 31-17.

TCU at #12 BYU

     The Cougars couldn't move the ball last week against Texas Tech, finishing with just 255 total yards. Defensively they did well to force the Red Raiders into 5 field goals, so they are tough to score on in the red zone. TCU's offense has slowed down a bit the last couple of weeks, especially since they have very little run game to lean on. The Frogs rank 107th in rush offense, which means BYU has full authority to rush the passer. I think the Cougars defense will hold this team together and help the offense get back on track. Give me BYU over TCU 30-21.

Kennesaw State at Jacksonville State

     Both squads are 5-0 in C-USA play and could play again for the C-USA crown despite a loss today. The Owls don't have the most dynamic offense, but when your defense allows just over 21 points per game, the offense doesn't always have to do too much. Jacksonville State averages 29.9 points per game to rank 2nd in the conference, so we've got best on best when they're on the field against the Owls defense. Junior RB Cam Cook is the player to watch as he's looking to keep his 5.9 yard per carry average up against the Owls rush defense. Turnovers are the difference maker though, and Jacksonville State is +3 on the season while Kennesaw is -1. Gamecocks beat the Owls at home 23-21.

Boise State at San Diego State

     The Aztecs were somewhat in the mix for the G5 playoff bid until their trip to Hawaii last week where the Rainbow Warriors buried them 38-6. SDSU has struggled on offense at times throughout the season, averaging just 26.3 points per game. Boise State has had their own issues, and they seem to keep piling up as starting QB Maddux Madsen will miss this one due to injury. The Broncos don't have much for offense outside of Madsen and with the Aztecs coming home off a bad loss I'm sure will wake up this 6th ranked defense to come after Boise State. Give me the Aztecs 27-21.

#11 Oklahoma at #4 Alabama

     A must-win game for the Sooners is set in Tuscaloosa as Alabama looks to get some revenge from last season when the Sooners shocked them (and the nation) with a 24-3 victory in Norman, ultimately knocking the Tide out of the Playoffs. Alabama has been rolling and looks to add an SEC Championship game to their schedule in a few weeks. This will be one of the best defenses Alabama has played all season, and John Mateer is looking back to his September-Heisman self. The Sooners forced 3 turnovers and caused a lot of QB pressure last season in the win, I'm guessing the game plan is similar today. Bama is led by QB Ty Simpson who has just 1 pick on the season. I'm anxious to see how he handles some adversity because Oklahoma is going to shut down the run game and force him to beat them with his arm. He's done that well through the season, but a couple of turnovers could change the tune. Offensively for Oklahoma they need to get their receivers involved. Mateer opens the run game up and can move the pocket, but Bama's defense will also force the QB to win this game through the air. It been hard to see Alabama losing this one at home, so I'll Roll with the Tide. I'd love the upset for some SEC chaos, but the offense of OU needs to match the defense and I'm not quite sure they're ready for it. This could be one of the best games of the weekend. Bama 24, Oklahoma 21.

#10 Texas at #5 Georgia

     Both teams have have defied my predictions and continue to win games. Luckily, someone has to lose this so I'll finally get my wish of watching one of these teams lose. Georgia plays so well at home and their offense is dynamic with Gunnar Stockton throwing and running it all over the place. Texas leans on the strength of their defense, but Arch Manning and the offensive have come alive in recent weeks. They always seem to pull one out of the fire, but road trips have been scary for the Horns this year. This is their first experience between the hedges and I don't think they'll make it out in one piece. I'm taking the Bulldogs to win at home with some key takeaways on defense and getting after Arch Manning with the pass rush. Bulldogs beat the Horns 33-23.

#9 Notre Dame at #22 Pitt

     The Irish look to add to their playoff resume with a ranked road win against the Pitt Panthers. They'll be up against one of the best rush defenses in the nation, as Pitt is allowing just 2.39 yards per carry and 80.9 yards per game on the ground. Notre Dame has two of the best backs in the nation though, and the duo of Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price have combined for 22 touchdowns so far this season. Offensively for the Panthers, they're led by Freshman QB Mason Heintschel who is 5-0 since being named the starter. He's got lots of weapons including a talented RB of his one with Desmond Reid. He's a dual-threat back with receiving skills adding to his rushing abilities. He'll give the Notre Dame defense a lot of headaches if they cannot tackle him on their first try. Lots of chaos and upset potential with Pitt in this game, but I think the run game of Notre Dame will break through. Obviously we're hoping for the upset, but I'll make my Uncle Joe happy and go with the Irish today. Notre Dame 26, Pitt 21.

Quick Hit Predictions:

Wiscionsin at #2 Indiana - The Badgers saw some life by beating Washington last week, but Indiana was pushed to the brink and I imagine Curt Cignetti wants to fix those issues. Indiana will be without their top receiver Elijah Sarratt again, but look for their offense to protect Mendoza better. 28-10 Hoosiers.

West Virginia at Arizona State - The Mountaineers have back-to-back wins and need 2 more to get bowl eligible in Rich Rod's first season back in Morgantown. Arizona State is coming off a BYE week and I've got to give Jeff Sims some credit because he set a school record and showed some great toughness in that win against Iowa State two weeks ago. I can't fully say I'm forgiven on him for his Husker days, but I think he gets the job done here. Sun Devils beat the Mountaineers 36-23.

Maryland at Illinois - The Terps have lost 5 straight and their offensive production has fallen off quickly, scoring no more than 20 in 4 of their last 5. Illinois hasn't been able to run the ball much, but Luke Altmyer and his experience will push them past Maryland. Illini 34, Terps 24.

Purdue at Washington - The Boilermakers have a lot of rebuilding to do, and it likely won't come together in Seattle. The Dubs need a bounce back after losing to Wisconsin, but don't let Purdue hang around, they've had a lot of close losses in the BIG 10 and could be primed for another upset. Huskies win 28-21.

UCLA at #1 Ohio State - Nico Iamaleava has the experience of playing in the Horseshoe from the Playoffs last season, but his legs along won't get him a win against the #1 defense in the nation. Buckeyes suffocate again and flex a bit on offense 38-7.

Mississippi State at Missouri - State couldn't get things going against Georiga, but Mizzou is spiraling a bit. The Bulldogs need this one or the Egg Bowl to get bowl eligible and they host the Egg Bowl at home. Tough road environment and I'll give it to the Tigers to bounce back 30-27.

Wyoming at Fresno State - The Cowboys head West to take on Fresno as both teams come off a BYE week. This is one of the last battles we'll see between these teams as Fresno State heads to the PAC-12 next season, and they're not going out on a loss to Wyoming. Bulldogs take it at home 27-21.

Thank you for reading my Week 12 Predictions and enjoy a great day of College Football!

#CFBKnowItAll

Alex Fernando