I hope everyone had a good Thanksgiving weekend and enjoyed all the great football games that took place! This post will have my reflections on the Nebraska-Iowa game (it'll be short, not much to say) as well as my thoughts on some of the other rivalry games and the playoff rankings that will come out tonight as we prepare for Championship Weekend. Let me know if you have any questions or comments, enjoy!
Out of position, out of sync, and straight up out played. Nebraska looked arguably the worst they have all season during their trip to Iowa City that concluded with a 40-10 loss to the Hawkeyes. Iowa had a number of big plays that broke the game open early on, and Nebraska just struggled to get anything going to begin with. There were plenty of opportunities for the Huskers to keep pace and/or climb back into the game, but Tommy was not able to hit any of his deep passes. I would venture to say that an 80+% Tommy is still better than any of our other QBs, especially with Ryker injured as well, but it was obvious Tommy was not in game condition. He was not able to run or be very mobile at all in the pocket, and there's a lot more legs than you would think that goes into throwing the ball. I could tell his hamstring injury was still bothering him quite a bit and definitely didn't help his deep passing accuracy. The Hawkeyes dominated Nebraska on all sides of the ball, rushing for 264 on the Blackshirts while holding Nebraska to only 90. Having a limited Tommy Armstrong allowed Iowa to load up the box, focus on the RBs and bring pressure, but the Husker offense was so out of sync that I'm not sure it really would have mattered. Again, the play calling still frustrates me to no end because I am still able to predict our entire offensive series before the first snap. Also, I understand that the match up may be favorable, but on third down YOU DO NOT HAVE THE BOMB IT DEEP EVERY TIME. Nearly every third down for Nebraska ended in an incomplete 30+ yard pass when the sticks were only 5-8 yards away and the middle of the field was wide open. Sometimes, you just need to get the sticks and keep the drive moving, you don't have to score a TD on every single play.
On the defensive side of the ball, the Blackshirts were no where to be found. Constantly out of position, drifting too far on play fakes, and again missing tackles. Tackling should be a huge focus during bowl prep, because there have been far too many missed tackles the past couple of weeks. Coverage-wise, #LockDownU was out of position as well. CJ Bethard only had 144 yards passing (77 on one play alone), but completed 67% of his passes. The defense will need to get on the same page soon, I'm not really sure where they went for this game. The entire team honestly seemed like the overlooked the Hawkeyes, which puzzles me because they have not played well enough against anyone to have the ability to overlook a team, especially your rival who knocked off a top 4 team just a few weeks before hand. Iowa had a great game plan to focus on the ground game, and both Wadley and Daniels tore apart the Huskers, not only with their big runs, but the normal runs as well. They were not touched until 6 yards past the line of scrimmage, and the Husker's front 7 were knocked back at least 5 yards on nearly every snap. Lot of work to do for the Huskers, this game was bad. One positive note though is the firing of Husker Special Teams Coordinator Bruce Read. I have not been a very big fan of Read, so this was very exciting news. It's also good to see that Coach Riley, although loyal, means business. He wants to bring Nebraska back to a championship level team, and if results are not being produced, he'll find someone else.
Overall, Rivalry Weekend produced a great slate of games. The biggest was by far the game in Columbus between Ohio State and Michigan. (I would like to send my thoughts and prayers to those associated with Ohio State and their campus after the terrible attack yesterday). Harbaugh and Meyer's squads gave us everything we wanted in that game, and then some! The double OT game ended up with the Buckeyes winning and likely holding onto a playoff spot even though they will not play for a conference championship. The loss likely knocked Michigan from Playoff contention, but there are some that would argue a 2OT loss on the road could possibly give Michigan an argument over other playoff contenders. Most people believe the top 4 will likely consist of Bama, Ohio State, Clemson and Washington. The Tigers and the Huskies have difficult match-ups in their conference championships though, with Clemson facing off against Virginia Tech and Washington hosting the Buffaloes. If either of them were to lose, what team would fill their place? Would it be a 2-loss BIG 10 Champion Wisconsin or Penn State? Or would Michigan jump back into the picture, especially since they have the head to head wins over both Wisconsin and Penn State (and the possible Pac-12 Champion Colorado). Would a Big XII or Pac-12 Title weigh more than a 2-loss Michigan with no title? I can't wait to see the rankings and the championship games this weekend! In my opinion, (based on certain teams winning and losing for each other) there are 10 teams that could argue their way into the playoffs. Bama, Ohio State, Clemson, Washington, Michigan, Wisconsin, Penn State, Colorado, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State. Some teams obviously have more of an argument than others, but I think the committee needs to keep an eye open for all of these teams. I still stand by my statement from the summer that NO BIG XII TEAM WILL MAKE THE PLAYOFF though. However, you never know what the committee is going to do! As always, chaos runs amuck in College Football, so the best thing we can do is sit back, watch and enjoy the madness! Thanks for reading and GO BIG RED!
#CollegeFootballKnowItAll
Alex Fernando
Tuesday, November 29, 2016
Thursday, November 24, 2016
Rivalry Week Predictions
The best weekend of the year is here yet again!! I always hate how fast the College Football season goes by, but that just means rivalry week comes sooner! I hope everyone is ready to have a Happy Thanksgiving and watch a lot of great football while we eat. Here are all the best rivalry games to watch this weekend and my predictions on each game, enjoy!
LSU at Texas A&M (Thursday)
This clash between SEC West foes isn't as impactful as it usually is, but the rivalry always produces good games. The Tigers have dominated the series as of recently, winning the past 5 meetings, but have struggled in big games this year. They lost to Wisconsin by 2 in the opener, Auburn by 5 in a close one, Bama in a tight one at home, and then just last week were stuffed at the goal line by Florida. The Aggies have dropped two of their last three, just after being ranked in the CFP original 4 just a few weeks ago. Looking at the statistics, this sets up to be another close one. LSU only gives up 14 points per game, but rarely scores more than that on offense. The Aggies average 35 points per game on the season, but have failed to score more than 30 in their past three games. Both offenses are struggling to move the ball, but the run game is still the focus of both teams. Texas A&M will be looking to rely more on RB Trayveon Williams since backup QB Jake Hubenak is now running the show with Trevor Knight's injury. On the other side, LSU's offense will be leaning on their Sophomore RB Derrius Guice who is averaging 8 yards per carry and has 10 TDs so far this year. Star RB Leonard Fournette did not travel with the team and will not play against the Aggies. It's hard to say which team has the edge, because both offenses struggle so much, but I'm going to go with the Tigers on the road because of Guice and their defense. I don't think the Aggies will be able to move the ball, and LSU wins it 17-9.
Friday Games
#5 Washington at #23 Washington State (Battle for the Apple Cup)
The Huskies and Cougars square off in Pullman, WA to fight for not only the Apple Cup and bragging rights of the state, but also for the Pac-12 North Division Title. Washington also has a great opportunity to jump back into the Playoff conversation after slipping up against USC a couple weeks ago. This will match up two of the best QBs in the nation against each other in Washington's Jake Browning and Wazzu's Luke Falk. Falk leads the nation with nearly 4000 yards passing, and the Huskies defense has given up over 500 passing yards in the past two games, so they will be tested. On the other side, Jake Browning has struggled the past two games, throwing 4 picks compared to just 3 in the first 9 games. He will need to be smart with his passes to get the win against Wazzu, because the Cougars average 42.5 points per game. The main focus of Washington's offensive attack should be the ground game though. Wazzu gave up 258 yards on the ground to Colorado last week, and two Buffs players (RB Phillip Lindsay and QB Sefo Liufau) had over 100 yards on the ground. If the Huskies can get RB Myles Gaskin on a roll, they should have no problem controlling the clock and keeping Luke Falk off the field. Gaskin had over 100 yards on 16 carries last week, but may need some more touches this week just to keep the pressure off of Browning. Wazzu's best chance to win is to cause turnovers. As I mentioned earlier, Browning has been struggling the past couple games, so if they can capitalize on a couple of bad throws, they may be able to upset the Huskies. However, I think Washington is back on track after their loss, and they would love nothing more than to win the Pac-12 and join Playoff consideration. I think the Huskies win this game 40-23.
#19 Boise State at Air Force
The Broncos are looking to capture yet another Mountain West title, but are also looking to jump into a New Year's Six Bowl by being the highest ranked, non-Power 5 team. I personally think the other Broncos (Western Michigan) are the better team, and deserve to be ranked in the mid-teens instead of stuck at #21, but Boise is still not a team to overlook. They average nearly 500 yards and 37 points per game on offense while only giving up 380 and 22 respectively on defense. Their lone loss of the season came at the hands of Mountain Division foe Wyoming in a tight, 30-28 game in Laramie. Boise will be rooting hard for New Mexico, because if the Lobos pull of the upset on the Cowboys and the Broncos hold off the Falcons, Boise will go to the Mountain West Championship game to face off against the Aztecs from San Diego State. However, Air Force will be no easy task as the Falcons have very similar offensive numbers to the Broncos, but do most of their damage on the ground, averaging 324 yards per game rushing. The Falcons have only lost 1 game at home, and that was in a shootout with New Mexico. The Falcons will need to bring their A game to upset the Broncos, but time of possession is key. Air Force averages nearly 4 minutes more TOP than Boise State does, so keeping the ball away from the Broncos is the best way to pull the upset. I'm rooting for it, that way I can see Western Michigan in the New Year's Six bowl they deserve, but I'm not sure Air Force has the defense to finish out the game. Boise wins this one 33-29.
Toledo at #21 Western Michigan
The Rockets head up to Kalamazoo, MI to take on my favorite Western Michigan Broncos. I still think the Broncos are underrated, but an undefeated regular season could open some eyes, especially since their final game is against the other top team in the MAC Western Division. The Rockets are playing for a chance to go to the MAC championship, and if anyone has a chance to knock off WMU this year, it's Toledo. The Rockets lost by 5 last year at home, and both of their losses this season are by 2 points to BYU and 5 points to East Division leading Ohio. They are used to playing in close games this year, and they'll need to keep it close with the Broncos dynamic offense averaging nearly 44 points per game. Both of these offenses average over 500 total yards per game, and are fairly balanced. Toledo relies a little more on the passing game, but Star RB Kareem Hunt is never a player you want to forget about. He has nearly 1500 all-purpose yards this season and 8 TDs, 7 of which are on the ground. Hunt averages over 5 yards per carry and will need to have a big day to keep the ball away from Zach Terrell, Corey Davis and the rest of that Western Michigan offense. Junior QB Logan Woodside of the Rockets will also be a big factor, as he is completing 70% of his passes this season and has 40 TDs to only 7 INTs. If Toledo can play a clean game, they may be able to pull the upset. I'm sticking with my Broncos though. I think they're for real, and they're going to show the nation they deserve the New Year's Six bowl. This will be a fun game to watch with a lot of offense, but I think Western Michigan's defense wins this game with a couple of turnovers and great stops on 3rd down. My friend Eric is picking the Rockets to upset, but I've got the win for Western Michigan. ROW THE BOAT! Broncos 40, Rockets 21.
Saturday Games
#3 Michigan at #2 Ohio State (The Big Game)
One of the best rivalries in all of sports kicks off our Saturday slate at 11 am when the Wolverines travel to Columbus to take on the Buckeyes. These teams are two of the best in the nation, and are fighting for the BIG 10 East Division Title and a spot in the College Football Playoff. Michigan is looking to right the ship after their upset at Iowa a couple weeks ago. They struggled early on against Indiana, but after O'Korn's big scramble, the boys in blue seemed to find their mojo again. They will need every ounce of that mojo to knock off the Buckeyes though, especially since the game is in the Horseshoe. Starting QB Wilton Speight's status is still unsure, so O'Korn may get the nod again. Michigan will look to rely on the ground game to control the clock and keep JT Barret and Co. off the field. Statistically, these teams are nearly identical. Michigan averages 42.3 points and 451 yards on offense while only giving up 10.9 and 246 on defense. Ohio State averages 43.8 and 493 on offense while holding teams to 13 and 280 on defense. Both defenses are fantastic at creating turnovers and there may not be two better secondaries in the nation. I expect a great game from this match-up, and hopefully a closer one than last year. It's hard to say who really has the edge, but the home crowd factor will be nice for the Buckeyes. I think JT Barrett's big game experience will take over, and Ohio State wins, but does not go to the BIG 10 Championship. Buckeys 33, Wolverines 28.
#13 Auburn at #1 Alabama (The Iron Bowl)
Bama has already wrapped up the SEC West Division, but crushing their arch rival Tigers is always one of the biggest tasks of the season. Auburn looked out of sync a couple of weeks ago in their 13-7 loss to Georgia, but look to have the offense back on track against one of the best defenses in the nation. The Tigers average 34 points per game and around 475 yards, but the Tide don't give up much. Opposing teams only average 11.4 points per game and just over 250 yards. The other thing their defense does very well is score. Bama's offense is hard enough to stop, but their defense scores nearly as much as they do half the time! Auburn will really have to limit their mistakes, because Bama exploits them tremendously. On the flip side, Auburn's defense isn't one to forget about either. The Tigers give up only 14 points per game and allow only 117 on the ground per game. Most everyone (who is not a Bama fan) is rooting for the upset, and it's always possible in a rivalry as heated as this one. Look for Auburn to keep it close early on, but I think the Tide continues to roll and wins this game 35-17.
Notre Dame at #12 USC (Battle for the Jeweled Shillelagh)
The Irish will want to forget about this year very quickly, and will probably want to forget about this game when it's over as well. Last week, they blew a 17 point lead and ended up losing to Virginia Tech 34-31 at home. The Trojans are riding a 7 game win streak, and come into this rivalry game as arguably the hottest team in college football right now. Some are even saying they could jump back into the playoff picture, but I personally think that's highly unlikely. Nonetheless, I don't see this game going well for the Irish, hopefully they don't give up too many points. With all the issues this season, they need an offense to clean things up. I've got the Trojans big and win the Shillelagh! USC 48, Notre Dame 24.
Michigan State at #7 Penn State
This BIG 10 East Rivalry has conference champion implications as well as Playoff Implications. The Nittany Lions can find themselves in the BIG 10 Championship if they hold off the Spartans and if they get some help from the Buckeyes. Sparty put up a fight against Ohio State last week, and probably could have pulled the upset if they took them to OT instead of going for 2, but Happy Valley will not be an easy place to win with how well Penn State is playing this year. Nittany Lions QB Trace McSorely has played very well in his Sophomore year, passing for 2600 yards with a 17:5 TD to INT ratio, as well as rushing for 6 more TDs on the ground. He will need to play well because Michigan State will be focused on stopping Saquon Barkley and the Penn State rushing attack that averages 188 yards per game. The Spartans have struggled a lot on offense this year, only scoring 25 points per game on average, and even with all the play makers and experience from a year ago, have fallen to 3-8 on the season. They will likely fall to 3-9 and look to fix things during the off season. I expect Penn State to win this game and move on to the BIG 10 Championship with Ohio State winning. Nittany Lions 30, Spartans 16.
Minnesota at #6 Wisconsin (Battle for Paul Bunyan's Axe)
The Gophers head into Madison looking to upset their rival Badgers and win the Axe for the first time since 2003. The series has now become quite close with the Gophers holding a slim lead of 59-58-8. The Badgers have one of the best defenses in the nation, but their offense struggles quite a bit. Minnesota has a great chance to pull the upset, because their defense is very fast and has some impressive stats of their own. The Gophers only give up 116 yards rushing per game, and the Badgers' offense averages 200, so that will be a key factor to watch. If Minnesota can force Wisconsin to pass and try to win with their 2 QB system through the air, there is potential for the upset. However, that means the Gophers will need to score, which is nearly impossible against Wisconsin's defense. The Badgers only give up 13 points per game and 98 yards on the ground. Minnesota will need to establish a ground game and keep third downs manageable for QB Mitch Leidner. Leidner has been extremely inaccurate this year, so keeping it to third and short will be very important. If they fall behind the chains, Wisconsin will run them over. The spread is 14, but I think it will be a little closer than that. I want the upset to allow my Huskers into the BIG 10 Championship, but I think Wisconsin will win this game 24-14.
Oregon at Oregon State (The Civil War)
Neither of these teams is going to a bowl game, and they've both struggled mightily this season, but when bragging rights for the state are up for grabs and your arch rival is across the line, records go out the window. The Ducks and the Beavers meet in Corvallis this weekend and defense could be hard to come by. Oregon gives up 42 points and nearly 530 yards per game while OSU gives up 31 and 433 respectively. This year could be a great chance for the Beavers to win, which would be the first time since 2007. The Beavers' offense has improved the past couple weeks, but Oregon is coming in with a lot of confidence after upsetting #12 Utah last weekend. The Ducks have played in a number of close, high-scoring games, but have fallen in the majority of them. I think the Beavers pull the upset this year, and ruin the Ducks' season even more. Beavers 37, Ducks 33.
#22 Utah at #9 Colorado
Staying out West in the Pac-12, we have a big game to watch in Boulder, CO. The Buffs are on the brink of winning the Pac-12 South Division, and could possibly play their way into the College Football Playoff with some help. I think it's disgusting being a Husker fan, but I do have a lot of respect for Colorado's QB Sefo Liufau. Even though he's a Buffalo, I think Sefo is a great dual threat QB, and his numbers don't lie. Liufau has 1880 passing yards with a 10:3 TD to INT ratio, as well as 424 yards and 6 TDs (3 from last week) on the ground. He leads a stead Buffalo offense that averages 478 yards and 35 points per game. Junior RB Phillip Lindsay is also a big part of the offense with over 1000 yards rushing and 15 TDs on the ground. Utah's defense will have their hands full trying to contain all of these play makers as the Utes give up 387 yards per game. On the other side of the ball, Colorado's defense may be one of the most underrated in the country. They hold teams to an average of 18.5 points per game, and just 322 total yards offensively. Their secondary plays very tight coverage and has 13 picks on the year. Utah will have a difficult time winning in Boulder if they don't establish a ground game to keep the pressure off of QB Troy Williams. He has not thrown a pick in his last 3 games, so the Utes will be hoping for that streak to continue. For Colorado, it becomes quite simple, win this game and you're the Pac-12 South Division Champions. Lose this game and the red hot Trojans of USC are going to the Pac-12 Championship and playoff hopes transfer to them. My buddy Eric is going with the Utes on the upset, but I think Colorado is too tough to beat at home. Sefo leads the Buffs to yet another victory and Colorado wins it (this really makes me sick) 38-21.
#15 Florida at #14 Florida State
The Gators have wrapped up the SEC East division, but instate bragging rights are still on their minds, especially since the Seminoles are looking for their fourth straight win in this rivalry game. The Gators don't have much offense, but more than make up for it with their defense. They give up an average of just 13 points per game and only 282 yards. The Seminoles have found their offense recently after their early season struggles, and most of it lies with RB Dalvin Cook. Cook has nearly 1500 yards rushing and 17 TDs on the ground. 333 yards and 5 of those TDs have been in the past two games alone. Florida gave up 219 rushing yards to LSU last weekend, but held the Tigers out of the endzone on a goal line stop to win the game. The Seminoles have a much more dynamic offense than LSU though, and QB Deondre Francois is already a young star in the making. I think he'll have a big day and lead the 'Noles to victory. My biggest reason for FSU winning is the Gator's lackluster offense. Florida has not scored more than 24 points in their last four games, and they really have no rhythm on offense. I don't think they can stop FSU enough times, and definitely cannot keep up with them on the scoreboard. Seminoles win it 31-14.
Friday Game
#16 Nebraska at Iowa (The Heroes Game)
My favorite game to watch this weekend will definitely be the annual rivalry game between the Huskers and the Hawkeyes. One of the biggest factors to look at in this game is the fact that the away team has won the past four meetings between the teams. Iowa comes into this game riding a wave of confidence from their upset on Michigan a couple weeks ago. The Huskers roll into Iowa City on a two game win streak as well after finishing up their season at Memorial Stadium undefeated. That's come at a bit of a price however as a number of Huskers may be limited or out completely against Iowa due to injuries. The status of Tommy Armstrong is still unclear, but hopeful that he'll play. Ryker has a small cast on is left wrist after breaking a bone and needing surgery from last week's game against Maryland. If neither of those guys are able to go, Nebraska has been running Zack Darlington at QB all week, as well as some Wildcat options with DPE, so the offense will look interesting to say the least.
Starting with the offense, (let's hope for Tommy) no matter who plays at QB for the Huskers, the ground game will be the focus. I still think we threw a little too much with Ryker last weekend, but Newby still had a career day and showed that he may be the most durable RB we have. Freshman Trey Bryant has been gaining confidence and carries over recent weeks, so look for him to be a great change of pace when Newby needs a break. Nebraska has so many weapons on offense, and they are significantly more dangerous with Tommy Armstrong under center, but Iowa will have to account for all of them no matter who plays QB. The ground game will be a huge focus this week, and if the Huskers can control the clock like they have in recent games, they have a great chance to win this game.
Defensively, stopping the run is the most important factor. Iowa has gained confidence in their run game lately, and the two-headed rushing monster of Akrum Wadley and LeShun Daniels Jr. has caused headaches for opposing teams all season long. The two backs have combined for over 1700 yards on the ground and 17 TDs. The Blackshirts are only giving up 130 yards per game on the ground, so that will be an interesting match-up to keep your eye on. The best way for the Blackshirts to win this game is to make CJ Bethard throw the ball. "Lock Down U" has improved tenfold since last year, and Bethard's accuracy is not the best. The Huskers' secondary has 16 picks on the year, and you know Nate Gerry will be all over the field making plays in this game. I expect this to be a close, low-scoring game. First one to 20+ (if they get that high) will probably win the game. I'm sticking with my Huskers though, hopefully they can get the ball to their play makers and help out their injured QBs a bit. Let's also hope for some help from the Gophers too! Nebraska wins it on the road 20-16.
I hope you all enjoyed my game predictions and have a Happy Thanksgiving! Thankful for all this football! GO BIG RED!
#CollegeFootballKnowItAll
Alex Fernando
LSU at Texas A&M (Thursday)
This clash between SEC West foes isn't as impactful as it usually is, but the rivalry always produces good games. The Tigers have dominated the series as of recently, winning the past 5 meetings, but have struggled in big games this year. They lost to Wisconsin by 2 in the opener, Auburn by 5 in a close one, Bama in a tight one at home, and then just last week were stuffed at the goal line by Florida. The Aggies have dropped two of their last three, just after being ranked in the CFP original 4 just a few weeks ago. Looking at the statistics, this sets up to be another close one. LSU only gives up 14 points per game, but rarely scores more than that on offense. The Aggies average 35 points per game on the season, but have failed to score more than 30 in their past three games. Both offenses are struggling to move the ball, but the run game is still the focus of both teams. Texas A&M will be looking to rely more on RB Trayveon Williams since backup QB Jake Hubenak is now running the show with Trevor Knight's injury. On the other side, LSU's offense will be leaning on their Sophomore RB Derrius Guice who is averaging 8 yards per carry and has 10 TDs so far this year. Star RB Leonard Fournette did not travel with the team and will not play against the Aggies. It's hard to say which team has the edge, because both offenses struggle so much, but I'm going to go with the Tigers on the road because of Guice and their defense. I don't think the Aggies will be able to move the ball, and LSU wins it 17-9.
Friday Games
#5 Washington at #23 Washington State (Battle for the Apple Cup)
The Huskies and Cougars square off in Pullman, WA to fight for not only the Apple Cup and bragging rights of the state, but also for the Pac-12 North Division Title. Washington also has a great opportunity to jump back into the Playoff conversation after slipping up against USC a couple weeks ago. This will match up two of the best QBs in the nation against each other in Washington's Jake Browning and Wazzu's Luke Falk. Falk leads the nation with nearly 4000 yards passing, and the Huskies defense has given up over 500 passing yards in the past two games, so they will be tested. On the other side, Jake Browning has struggled the past two games, throwing 4 picks compared to just 3 in the first 9 games. He will need to be smart with his passes to get the win against Wazzu, because the Cougars average 42.5 points per game. The main focus of Washington's offensive attack should be the ground game though. Wazzu gave up 258 yards on the ground to Colorado last week, and two Buffs players (RB Phillip Lindsay and QB Sefo Liufau) had over 100 yards on the ground. If the Huskies can get RB Myles Gaskin on a roll, they should have no problem controlling the clock and keeping Luke Falk off the field. Gaskin had over 100 yards on 16 carries last week, but may need some more touches this week just to keep the pressure off of Browning. Wazzu's best chance to win is to cause turnovers. As I mentioned earlier, Browning has been struggling the past couple games, so if they can capitalize on a couple of bad throws, they may be able to upset the Huskies. However, I think Washington is back on track after their loss, and they would love nothing more than to win the Pac-12 and join Playoff consideration. I think the Huskies win this game 40-23.
#19 Boise State at Air Force
The Broncos are looking to capture yet another Mountain West title, but are also looking to jump into a New Year's Six Bowl by being the highest ranked, non-Power 5 team. I personally think the other Broncos (Western Michigan) are the better team, and deserve to be ranked in the mid-teens instead of stuck at #21, but Boise is still not a team to overlook. They average nearly 500 yards and 37 points per game on offense while only giving up 380 and 22 respectively on defense. Their lone loss of the season came at the hands of Mountain Division foe Wyoming in a tight, 30-28 game in Laramie. Boise will be rooting hard for New Mexico, because if the Lobos pull of the upset on the Cowboys and the Broncos hold off the Falcons, Boise will go to the Mountain West Championship game to face off against the Aztecs from San Diego State. However, Air Force will be no easy task as the Falcons have very similar offensive numbers to the Broncos, but do most of their damage on the ground, averaging 324 yards per game rushing. The Falcons have only lost 1 game at home, and that was in a shootout with New Mexico. The Falcons will need to bring their A game to upset the Broncos, but time of possession is key. Air Force averages nearly 4 minutes more TOP than Boise State does, so keeping the ball away from the Broncos is the best way to pull the upset. I'm rooting for it, that way I can see Western Michigan in the New Year's Six bowl they deserve, but I'm not sure Air Force has the defense to finish out the game. Boise wins this one 33-29.
Toledo at #21 Western Michigan
The Rockets head up to Kalamazoo, MI to take on my favorite Western Michigan Broncos. I still think the Broncos are underrated, but an undefeated regular season could open some eyes, especially since their final game is against the other top team in the MAC Western Division. The Rockets are playing for a chance to go to the MAC championship, and if anyone has a chance to knock off WMU this year, it's Toledo. The Rockets lost by 5 last year at home, and both of their losses this season are by 2 points to BYU and 5 points to East Division leading Ohio. They are used to playing in close games this year, and they'll need to keep it close with the Broncos dynamic offense averaging nearly 44 points per game. Both of these offenses average over 500 total yards per game, and are fairly balanced. Toledo relies a little more on the passing game, but Star RB Kareem Hunt is never a player you want to forget about. He has nearly 1500 all-purpose yards this season and 8 TDs, 7 of which are on the ground. Hunt averages over 5 yards per carry and will need to have a big day to keep the ball away from Zach Terrell, Corey Davis and the rest of that Western Michigan offense. Junior QB Logan Woodside of the Rockets will also be a big factor, as he is completing 70% of his passes this season and has 40 TDs to only 7 INTs. If Toledo can play a clean game, they may be able to pull the upset. I'm sticking with my Broncos though. I think they're for real, and they're going to show the nation they deserve the New Year's Six bowl. This will be a fun game to watch with a lot of offense, but I think Western Michigan's defense wins this game with a couple of turnovers and great stops on 3rd down. My friend Eric is picking the Rockets to upset, but I've got the win for Western Michigan. ROW THE BOAT! Broncos 40, Rockets 21.
Saturday Games
#3 Michigan at #2 Ohio State (The Big Game)
One of the best rivalries in all of sports kicks off our Saturday slate at 11 am when the Wolverines travel to Columbus to take on the Buckeyes. These teams are two of the best in the nation, and are fighting for the BIG 10 East Division Title and a spot in the College Football Playoff. Michigan is looking to right the ship after their upset at Iowa a couple weeks ago. They struggled early on against Indiana, but after O'Korn's big scramble, the boys in blue seemed to find their mojo again. They will need every ounce of that mojo to knock off the Buckeyes though, especially since the game is in the Horseshoe. Starting QB Wilton Speight's status is still unsure, so O'Korn may get the nod again. Michigan will look to rely on the ground game to control the clock and keep JT Barret and Co. off the field. Statistically, these teams are nearly identical. Michigan averages 42.3 points and 451 yards on offense while only giving up 10.9 and 246 on defense. Ohio State averages 43.8 and 493 on offense while holding teams to 13 and 280 on defense. Both defenses are fantastic at creating turnovers and there may not be two better secondaries in the nation. I expect a great game from this match-up, and hopefully a closer one than last year. It's hard to say who really has the edge, but the home crowd factor will be nice for the Buckeyes. I think JT Barrett's big game experience will take over, and Ohio State wins, but does not go to the BIG 10 Championship. Buckeys 33, Wolverines 28.
#13 Auburn at #1 Alabama (The Iron Bowl)
Bama has already wrapped up the SEC West Division, but crushing their arch rival Tigers is always one of the biggest tasks of the season. Auburn looked out of sync a couple of weeks ago in their 13-7 loss to Georgia, but look to have the offense back on track against one of the best defenses in the nation. The Tigers average 34 points per game and around 475 yards, but the Tide don't give up much. Opposing teams only average 11.4 points per game and just over 250 yards. The other thing their defense does very well is score. Bama's offense is hard enough to stop, but their defense scores nearly as much as they do half the time! Auburn will really have to limit their mistakes, because Bama exploits them tremendously. On the flip side, Auburn's defense isn't one to forget about either. The Tigers give up only 14 points per game and allow only 117 on the ground per game. Most everyone (who is not a Bama fan) is rooting for the upset, and it's always possible in a rivalry as heated as this one. Look for Auburn to keep it close early on, but I think the Tide continues to roll and wins this game 35-17.
Notre Dame at #12 USC (Battle for the Jeweled Shillelagh)
The Irish will want to forget about this year very quickly, and will probably want to forget about this game when it's over as well. Last week, they blew a 17 point lead and ended up losing to Virginia Tech 34-31 at home. The Trojans are riding a 7 game win streak, and come into this rivalry game as arguably the hottest team in college football right now. Some are even saying they could jump back into the playoff picture, but I personally think that's highly unlikely. Nonetheless, I don't see this game going well for the Irish, hopefully they don't give up too many points. With all the issues this season, they need an offense to clean things up. I've got the Trojans big and win the Shillelagh! USC 48, Notre Dame 24.
Michigan State at #7 Penn State
This BIG 10 East Rivalry has conference champion implications as well as Playoff Implications. The Nittany Lions can find themselves in the BIG 10 Championship if they hold off the Spartans and if they get some help from the Buckeyes. Sparty put up a fight against Ohio State last week, and probably could have pulled the upset if they took them to OT instead of going for 2, but Happy Valley will not be an easy place to win with how well Penn State is playing this year. Nittany Lions QB Trace McSorely has played very well in his Sophomore year, passing for 2600 yards with a 17:5 TD to INT ratio, as well as rushing for 6 more TDs on the ground. He will need to play well because Michigan State will be focused on stopping Saquon Barkley and the Penn State rushing attack that averages 188 yards per game. The Spartans have struggled a lot on offense this year, only scoring 25 points per game on average, and even with all the play makers and experience from a year ago, have fallen to 3-8 on the season. They will likely fall to 3-9 and look to fix things during the off season. I expect Penn State to win this game and move on to the BIG 10 Championship with Ohio State winning. Nittany Lions 30, Spartans 16.
Minnesota at #6 Wisconsin (Battle for Paul Bunyan's Axe)
The Gophers head into Madison looking to upset their rival Badgers and win the Axe for the first time since 2003. The series has now become quite close with the Gophers holding a slim lead of 59-58-8. The Badgers have one of the best defenses in the nation, but their offense struggles quite a bit. Minnesota has a great chance to pull the upset, because their defense is very fast and has some impressive stats of their own. The Gophers only give up 116 yards rushing per game, and the Badgers' offense averages 200, so that will be a key factor to watch. If Minnesota can force Wisconsin to pass and try to win with their 2 QB system through the air, there is potential for the upset. However, that means the Gophers will need to score, which is nearly impossible against Wisconsin's defense. The Badgers only give up 13 points per game and 98 yards on the ground. Minnesota will need to establish a ground game and keep third downs manageable for QB Mitch Leidner. Leidner has been extremely inaccurate this year, so keeping it to third and short will be very important. If they fall behind the chains, Wisconsin will run them over. The spread is 14, but I think it will be a little closer than that. I want the upset to allow my Huskers into the BIG 10 Championship, but I think Wisconsin will win this game 24-14.
Oregon at Oregon State (The Civil War)
Neither of these teams is going to a bowl game, and they've both struggled mightily this season, but when bragging rights for the state are up for grabs and your arch rival is across the line, records go out the window. The Ducks and the Beavers meet in Corvallis this weekend and defense could be hard to come by. Oregon gives up 42 points and nearly 530 yards per game while OSU gives up 31 and 433 respectively. This year could be a great chance for the Beavers to win, which would be the first time since 2007. The Beavers' offense has improved the past couple weeks, but Oregon is coming in with a lot of confidence after upsetting #12 Utah last weekend. The Ducks have played in a number of close, high-scoring games, but have fallen in the majority of them. I think the Beavers pull the upset this year, and ruin the Ducks' season even more. Beavers 37, Ducks 33.
#22 Utah at #9 Colorado
Staying out West in the Pac-12, we have a big game to watch in Boulder, CO. The Buffs are on the brink of winning the Pac-12 South Division, and could possibly play their way into the College Football Playoff with some help. I think it's disgusting being a Husker fan, but I do have a lot of respect for Colorado's QB Sefo Liufau. Even though he's a Buffalo, I think Sefo is a great dual threat QB, and his numbers don't lie. Liufau has 1880 passing yards with a 10:3 TD to INT ratio, as well as 424 yards and 6 TDs (3 from last week) on the ground. He leads a stead Buffalo offense that averages 478 yards and 35 points per game. Junior RB Phillip Lindsay is also a big part of the offense with over 1000 yards rushing and 15 TDs on the ground. Utah's defense will have their hands full trying to contain all of these play makers as the Utes give up 387 yards per game. On the other side of the ball, Colorado's defense may be one of the most underrated in the country. They hold teams to an average of 18.5 points per game, and just 322 total yards offensively. Their secondary plays very tight coverage and has 13 picks on the year. Utah will have a difficult time winning in Boulder if they don't establish a ground game to keep the pressure off of QB Troy Williams. He has not thrown a pick in his last 3 games, so the Utes will be hoping for that streak to continue. For Colorado, it becomes quite simple, win this game and you're the Pac-12 South Division Champions. Lose this game and the red hot Trojans of USC are going to the Pac-12 Championship and playoff hopes transfer to them. My buddy Eric is going with the Utes on the upset, but I think Colorado is too tough to beat at home. Sefo leads the Buffs to yet another victory and Colorado wins it (this really makes me sick) 38-21.
#15 Florida at #14 Florida State
The Gators have wrapped up the SEC East division, but instate bragging rights are still on their minds, especially since the Seminoles are looking for their fourth straight win in this rivalry game. The Gators don't have much offense, but more than make up for it with their defense. They give up an average of just 13 points per game and only 282 yards. The Seminoles have found their offense recently after their early season struggles, and most of it lies with RB Dalvin Cook. Cook has nearly 1500 yards rushing and 17 TDs on the ground. 333 yards and 5 of those TDs have been in the past two games alone. Florida gave up 219 rushing yards to LSU last weekend, but held the Tigers out of the endzone on a goal line stop to win the game. The Seminoles have a much more dynamic offense than LSU though, and QB Deondre Francois is already a young star in the making. I think he'll have a big day and lead the 'Noles to victory. My biggest reason for FSU winning is the Gator's lackluster offense. Florida has not scored more than 24 points in their last four games, and they really have no rhythm on offense. I don't think they can stop FSU enough times, and definitely cannot keep up with them on the scoreboard. Seminoles win it 31-14.
Friday Game
#16 Nebraska at Iowa (The Heroes Game)
My favorite game to watch this weekend will definitely be the annual rivalry game between the Huskers and the Hawkeyes. One of the biggest factors to look at in this game is the fact that the away team has won the past four meetings between the teams. Iowa comes into this game riding a wave of confidence from their upset on Michigan a couple weeks ago. The Huskers roll into Iowa City on a two game win streak as well after finishing up their season at Memorial Stadium undefeated. That's come at a bit of a price however as a number of Huskers may be limited or out completely against Iowa due to injuries. The status of Tommy Armstrong is still unclear, but hopeful that he'll play. Ryker has a small cast on is left wrist after breaking a bone and needing surgery from last week's game against Maryland. If neither of those guys are able to go, Nebraska has been running Zack Darlington at QB all week, as well as some Wildcat options with DPE, so the offense will look interesting to say the least.
Starting with the offense, (let's hope for Tommy) no matter who plays at QB for the Huskers, the ground game will be the focus. I still think we threw a little too much with Ryker last weekend, but Newby still had a career day and showed that he may be the most durable RB we have. Freshman Trey Bryant has been gaining confidence and carries over recent weeks, so look for him to be a great change of pace when Newby needs a break. Nebraska has so many weapons on offense, and they are significantly more dangerous with Tommy Armstrong under center, but Iowa will have to account for all of them no matter who plays QB. The ground game will be a huge focus this week, and if the Huskers can control the clock like they have in recent games, they have a great chance to win this game.
Defensively, stopping the run is the most important factor. Iowa has gained confidence in their run game lately, and the two-headed rushing monster of Akrum Wadley and LeShun Daniels Jr. has caused headaches for opposing teams all season long. The two backs have combined for over 1700 yards on the ground and 17 TDs. The Blackshirts are only giving up 130 yards per game on the ground, so that will be an interesting match-up to keep your eye on. The best way for the Blackshirts to win this game is to make CJ Bethard throw the ball. "Lock Down U" has improved tenfold since last year, and Bethard's accuracy is not the best. The Huskers' secondary has 16 picks on the year, and you know Nate Gerry will be all over the field making plays in this game. I expect this to be a close, low-scoring game. First one to 20+ (if they get that high) will probably win the game. I'm sticking with my Huskers though, hopefully they can get the ball to their play makers and help out their injured QBs a bit. Let's also hope for some help from the Gophers too! Nebraska wins it on the road 20-16.
I hope you all enjoyed my game predictions and have a Happy Thanksgiving! Thankful for all this football! GO BIG RED!
#CollegeFootballKnowItAll
Alex Fernando
Tuesday, November 22, 2016
Week 12 Reflection
I hope you all enjoyed Senior day at Nebraska (and Kansas upsetting Texas for the first time since 1938) this past weekend! Here are my reflections on the Huskers win against Maryland as well as the status moving forward into the rivalry game with Iowa. Enjoy!
Ryker Fyfe (aka the Grand Island Gunslinger) started for his senior day in place of the injured Tommy Armstrong, and made the most of it. Fyfe finished with a 62.2% completion rating for 220 yards and 1 TD. Nebraska dominated Maryland on both sides of the ball, leading to their 28-7 victory. The most telling stat of the day was Time of Possession, where the Huskers held onto the ball for 39 minutes of game time, compared to Maryland's 21 minutes. Keeping the ball away from Maryland and out of the hands of their dynamic receivers was the biggest key to the Huskers victory, especially with their backup QB getting only his 2nd career start. Nebraska ran for 181 against the Terps, 98 of those yards coming from Senior RB Terrell Newby, who also had 3 rushing touchdowns to close out his career at Memorial Stadium. The passing attack proved to be strong against the Maryland defense as Fyfe had 220 yards, 85 of which belonged to Senior WR Jordan Westerkamp who had an incredible game, including his 18th career receiving TD. Nebraska had a very balanced offense on Saturday, passing a few more times than I would have thought of with a backup, but a majority of the passes were simple bubble screens for easy completions and to spread the defense out in space.
Defensively, the Blackshirts nearly completed the shutout, but poor tackling late in the game lead to Maryland doubling their total yardage on their lone TD of the game. This came on a 92 yard screen pass early in the fourth quarter where multiple Husker defenders had a chance to tackle speedy WR DJ Moore in the backfield, but failed to wrap him up, allowing him to run down for the TD. Apart from that play, the Terrapins only gained 115 yards of total offense, and just 11 of those were on the ground. The Blackshirts stuffed Maryland's multi-back rushing attack, and also came away with 5 sacks on QB Max Bortenschlager. Two strong performances since the beat down in Columbus should give the Blackshirts confidence heading into Iowa City against a struggling Hawkeye offense. No takeaways in this game, but holding the Terps to 4/15 and 1/3 on 3rd and 4th down conversions kept the defense well rested throughout the game.
Special teams continues to be one of the biggest issues for the Huskers, and things won't get easier with Drew Brown suffering a concussion on the opening kickoff. A great tackle by Brown came with a price as he's going through concussion protocol this week with hopes he'll play on Friday. If not, Spencer Lindsay will hold down the kicking duties, and with Punter Caleb Lightbourn in a bit of a slump, special teams will be a huge focus this week during practice. I personally am not a huge fan of Bruce Read as our Special Teams Coordinator because it's by far the Husker's worst phase of the game and he's paid nearly half a million dollars to control that. Punt returns are extremely frustrating to watch, because DPE really does not need much help to break one open, but with absolutely no blocking, not even his speed and quickness can get him away from 7 guys encircling him. Changes need to be made quickly in the Special Teams department, because there are too many wasted opportunities and just straight up dumb plays. We'll see what happens moving forward.
Finally, for anyone wondering who is going to play QB for Nebraska on Friday... I honestly don't think we'll know until Friday. Tommy was able to practice a limited amount yesterday, and Ryker is still able to throw since the bone he broke is in his left hand, but neither of those guys will be 100% by Friday. Zack Darlington will likely get some reps in practice just in case this week, and I wouldn't rule out the possibility of a De'Mornay Pierson-El Wildcat package, but for now we'll just have to wait, see and hope. I expect a very defensive game against the Hawkeyes with both offenses struggling and banged up, so Special Teams will be a key factor. Hopefully the Huskers get healthy soon and GO BIG RED!
#CollegeFootballKnowItAll
Alex Fernando
Ryker Fyfe (aka the Grand Island Gunslinger) started for his senior day in place of the injured Tommy Armstrong, and made the most of it. Fyfe finished with a 62.2% completion rating for 220 yards and 1 TD. Nebraska dominated Maryland on both sides of the ball, leading to their 28-7 victory. The most telling stat of the day was Time of Possession, where the Huskers held onto the ball for 39 minutes of game time, compared to Maryland's 21 minutes. Keeping the ball away from Maryland and out of the hands of their dynamic receivers was the biggest key to the Huskers victory, especially with their backup QB getting only his 2nd career start. Nebraska ran for 181 against the Terps, 98 of those yards coming from Senior RB Terrell Newby, who also had 3 rushing touchdowns to close out his career at Memorial Stadium. The passing attack proved to be strong against the Maryland defense as Fyfe had 220 yards, 85 of which belonged to Senior WR Jordan Westerkamp who had an incredible game, including his 18th career receiving TD. Nebraska had a very balanced offense on Saturday, passing a few more times than I would have thought of with a backup, but a majority of the passes were simple bubble screens for easy completions and to spread the defense out in space.
Defensively, the Blackshirts nearly completed the shutout, but poor tackling late in the game lead to Maryland doubling their total yardage on their lone TD of the game. This came on a 92 yard screen pass early in the fourth quarter where multiple Husker defenders had a chance to tackle speedy WR DJ Moore in the backfield, but failed to wrap him up, allowing him to run down for the TD. Apart from that play, the Terrapins only gained 115 yards of total offense, and just 11 of those were on the ground. The Blackshirts stuffed Maryland's multi-back rushing attack, and also came away with 5 sacks on QB Max Bortenschlager. Two strong performances since the beat down in Columbus should give the Blackshirts confidence heading into Iowa City against a struggling Hawkeye offense. No takeaways in this game, but holding the Terps to 4/15 and 1/3 on 3rd and 4th down conversions kept the defense well rested throughout the game.
Special teams continues to be one of the biggest issues for the Huskers, and things won't get easier with Drew Brown suffering a concussion on the opening kickoff. A great tackle by Brown came with a price as he's going through concussion protocol this week with hopes he'll play on Friday. If not, Spencer Lindsay will hold down the kicking duties, and with Punter Caleb Lightbourn in a bit of a slump, special teams will be a huge focus this week during practice. I personally am not a huge fan of Bruce Read as our Special Teams Coordinator because it's by far the Husker's worst phase of the game and he's paid nearly half a million dollars to control that. Punt returns are extremely frustrating to watch, because DPE really does not need much help to break one open, but with absolutely no blocking, not even his speed and quickness can get him away from 7 guys encircling him. Changes need to be made quickly in the Special Teams department, because there are too many wasted opportunities and just straight up dumb plays. We'll see what happens moving forward.
Finally, for anyone wondering who is going to play QB for Nebraska on Friday... I honestly don't think we'll know until Friday. Tommy was able to practice a limited amount yesterday, and Ryker is still able to throw since the bone he broke is in his left hand, but neither of those guys will be 100% by Friday. Zack Darlington will likely get some reps in practice just in case this week, and I wouldn't rule out the possibility of a De'Mornay Pierson-El Wildcat package, but for now we'll just have to wait, see and hope. I expect a very defensive game against the Hawkeyes with both offenses struggling and banged up, so Special Teams will be a key factor. Hopefully the Huskers get healthy soon and GO BIG RED!
#CollegeFootballKnowItAll
Alex Fernando
Saturday, November 19, 2016
Week 12 Predictions
I hope you're all ready for a great weekend of football! Houston kicked off the chaos last night with their dominating performance over Louisville last night, knocking off #5! We've got a great slate of games to pick on this weekend, so here ya go!
#11 Oklahoma State at TCU
The Cowboys have two big road games ahead of them to finish off the season, and with these road games comes the perfect opportunity to win the Big XII Conference. The only problem with these two road games is that they are against the Horned Frogs and the arch rival Sooners. With everyone expecting OU to sweep through and win the Big XII, it's possible the Pokes could be looking ahead, but this is not the game to do that. TCU has already knocked off Baylor, and took the Sooners down to the wire. The Horned Frogs offense is averaging 510 yards per game and they're coming off fresh from their BYE week. Oklahoma State has been cruising under QB Mason Rudolph's 24 TDs and nearly 3400 passing yards this season. This should be a high scoring game, with both teams averaging around 40 points per game and give up an average of 29 points per game. It would be fun to see Oklahoma State duel it out in Bedlam with the Sooners for the conference title, but TCU at home is sneaky. I think Kenny Hill and the team have some confidence from their Baylor win and they're going to pull the upset in Fort Worth! Horned Frogs 46, Cowboys 40.
#23 Florida at #16 LSU
The Gators and the Tigers are finally set to clash in Death Valley after rescheduling their game due to Hurricane Matthew. This game will feature two of the best scoring defenses in the country, both giving up around 13 points per game. Statistically, both of these teams match up really well, but over the last couple weeks, it's been a different story with the eye test. LSU lost a tight one at home to Bama 10-0, but then came back and dominated Arkansas 38-10. Florida was upset by the Razorbacks 31-10, but took care of South Carolina last week 20-7. On the road puts the Gators at a huge disadvantage. They've lost 2 out of their 3 road games thus far and Death Valley does not sound like the ideal destination for a win. Florida gave up 223 rushing yards to Arkansas, and with Leonard Fournette and Derrius Guice coming off of a combined 350 yard performance, I don't think it looks good for the Gators. On the other side of the ball, Florida's offense has struggled all season, and with LSU holding Bama to only 10 points, I expect them to struggle again. I think Leonard Fournette and the Tigers keep this one at home. Gators Defense keeps it tight for a while, but LSU wins this one 30-17.
Buffalo at #21 Western Michigan
I cannot be more excited to have College Gameday post up in Kalamazoo, Michigan for the Broncos as they look to continue their undefeated season. The Broncos have been one of my favorite teams to watch all season long, and I honestly think that they would compete with more of the top teams than most people might think. I know they're in a weaker conference with one of the weakest schedules, but they are legit. They average nearly 250 yards both rushing and passing per game, and the QB-WR duo of Zach Terrell and Corey Davis is probably the best in the nation in my opinion. They get to face off against a struggling 2-8 Buffalo squad that has given up 30+ points in 4 of their last 5 games. I expect Western Michigan to continue their dominating season (only Northwestern has come within one score of beating them) and crush Buffalo, especially with the added energy from College Gameday being on scene for the game. Keep your eye on the Broncos, they deserve more credit than just #21. Also, both Terrell and Davis could be very big draft sleepers in the Spring. Look for Davis to impress once he gets to the league! Broncos 51, Bulls 10.
#22 Washington State at #10 Colorado
It's pretty interesting that two of the Pac-12's best playoff hopes are either Wazzu or the Buffaloes. Both are at the top of their respective divisions and would love nothing more than to keep that cushion against their competitors. Colorado has a bit more to lose in this game because if USC beats UCLA (which I think has a very good possibility of happening), then they will be done with their conference games, leaving all the pressure on Colorado to win out if they want to win the South Division. The good news for the Buffs is that both of their remaining games are at home, the bad news is that they are against two of the best teams in the Pac-12 with the High-powered Cougars and the always dangerous Utes coming to Boulder next weekend. This game pits two great offenses against each other, Wazzu averaging nearly 45 points and just under 520 total yards per game and Colorado averaging 35 points and 466 total yards per game. The big factors to watch are the passing attacks of each team. Wazzu has the 2nd best passing attack in the nation, averaging 385 yards per game while the Buffs only average 261 per game. However, defensively, the Buffs have the advantage on paper. They only give up 18 points per game and allow an impressive 176 yards through the air. The Cougars have not faced a defense this good all season, and if the Buffs can slow down Luke Falk and keep him under pressure (sacked 23 times already this season), they will be able to pull off the victory at home. My friend Eric has called this game as one of his upsets of the week with Wazzu pulling out the victory, but I think the Buffs will win it at home. The big key offensively for the Buffs will be to get Junior RB Phillip Lindsay the ball as much as possible. Lindsay has nearly 1250 total yards this season and 14 TDs. The Buffs offense really depends on his performance, so look for him to have a big game. I really hate to keep saying this, but I'm taking Colorado at home against Eric's upset. Buffs 37, Wazzu 30.
San Diego State at Wyoming
This game may not seem like the most appealing match-up of the weekend, but these two teams are two of the best in the Mountain West, and it features a player who should seriously be considered for the Heisman Trophy, Donnell Pumphrey. Pumphrey is probably the most underrated running back in the nation, because he is a workhorse for the Aztecs. He averages 6.6 yards per carry and gets an average of 27 touches per game. SDSU slipped up early in the year, losing to South Alabama, but have since been rolling through their opponents, averaging nearly 37 points and 435 yards per game. The Cowboys were undefeated in Mountain West play until last week's 3OT thrilling loss against UNLV. However, Wyoming has yet to lose a game in Laramie, and their offense is tough to stop as well, averaging over 220 yards both rushing and passing and 39 points per game. One or two defensive stops could be the difference in this game, and based off the stats, SDSU has the edge there, giving up an average of just 282 total yards per game. However, Eric and I both picked the upset by Wyoming in this one, and I think the Cowboys prove us right and pull it off at home. Look for a close one in Laramie this weekend! Cowboys beat the Aztecs 34-31.
#24 Stanford at Cal (The Big Game)
This is one of the biggest rivalries out on the West Coast, pitting the Cardinal against the Golden Bears. Stanford has one the last 6 meetings between the teams, but I think Cal has more of a chance this season. The Golden Bears have lost their last three games to three of the best teams in the Pac-12 (USC, Washington & Wazzu), so they are hungry as their rivals come into town. Stanford is heavily favored and has an 11 point spread, but I think this game could be a little closer. Stanford has not looked like themselves this year, struggling quite a bit on offense. The main factor for the Cardinal is still Christian McCaffrey, but he has been contained very well this season by opposing teams. The Bears offense usually doesn't have many issues scoring, averaging 38 points and 518 yards per game, but their defense needs some work. Almost every game Cal has played started in a shootout, and then their defense just let the flood gates open. Stanford may have found their offense again last week with their 52-27 beat down on the Ducks, so Cal needs to be ready. I'm always looking for the upset, but I think the Trees will get it done again and extend the win streak to 7 over the bears. I think the Cardinal defense shuts the Bears down a bit and Stanford wins The Big Game 31-22.
#9 Oklahoma at #14 West Virginia
This is the only ranked match-up the weekend and it's for first place in the Big XII conference. The Sooners can win the conference title outright with a win in Morgantown, but WVU looks to tie up the records and get at least a share of that title. Oklahoma is the favorite right now, but I think this is going to be a close, high-scoring affair. Two teams that are lead by balanced offenses and star QBs, you know it's going to be a shootout. Baker Mayfield has the experience, and the Sooners have been soaring since their early season losses. West Virginia started off hot, but have slowed down since their 37-20 loss to the Cowboys of OSU. They pulled out a close one against Texas last week and now return home to face the Sooners. The Mountaineers have played their best football at home, but I'm not really sure if they can slow down the Sooners. I think Baker Mayfield has too many weapons around him, especially the one named DeDe Westbrook. Westbrook has 14 receiving TDs this season, all coming since the fourth game of the season. OU runs away with it in the end and WVU can't keep up with the scoring. Sooners win it 47-33.
#13 USC at UCLA
The classic LA rivalry takes place at the Rose Bowl today! The Trojans march into Pasadena just one week after upsetting the #4 Huskies to take on the struggling Bruins. UCLA needs to win its last two games if they want to become Bowl Eligible, and hosting the Red Hot Trojans is not necessarily ideal. This is a rivalry game though, and bragging rights around LA are nothing either of these teams take lightly. The Bruins have struggled all season long to finish out games, losing 4 of their last 5 games all by 10 points or less. Look for them to keep it tight against USC, but I think the Trojan's run game takes over and closes out the game for the Trojans. USC wins it 30-17.
Maryland at #18 Nebraska
The Huskers close out their home games with a match-up against the Maryland Terrapins. This is the first match-up between the teams as members of the BIG 10 conference, and the first game between the teams all time! Maryland is looking to become bowl eligible with a win, but doing that in Lincoln will be tough, especially on Senior day for the class of 2017. Still no official word on Tommy Armstrong's status, but I can't see him sitting out much (if any) of his final home game at Memorial Stadium. Onto my keys to the game!
Offensively the only thing Nebraska should focus on is the ground game. Sadly, that has not been effective at all the past few weeks due to poor play calling and poor blocking. They should have a little more success today as Maryland gives up an average of nearly 230 yards per game on the ground. Look for Newby to have a big game, but also look for the return of Devine Ozigbo. He's been battling an ankle injury the past few weeks, but will likely get some action come lunchtime. If Tommy plays, I don't expect him to run much, hopefully saving him for Iowa next week. If Ryker plays, look for simple, short routes to keep the chains moving. No matter what, if Nebraska does not establish a rushing attack, this game will be closer than necessary. Injuries have not helped this case, but Nebraska's offense was pegged to be one of the best in the BIG 10 this year. I really hope Danny Langsdorf starts to show it soon and use creative ways to get his play makers in space.
On the defensive side of the ball, pressure on the QB is my main key to victory. Maryland will be looking to run the ball, averaging 213 yards on the ground per game, but if the Blackshirts can keep up their dominating run defense, that will force the Terps into 3rd and passing situations. Senior QB Perry Hills is completing 66.7% of his passes, so keeping him under pressure will help the defense get off the field. Hills has been sacked 22 times already this season, so causing havoc in the backfield shouldn't be the most difficult task. Hills may be out due to injury, so Senior back-up Caleb Rowe could get the start. Look for the defensive line to have a big game with a number of Blackshirt linebackers dealing with injuries. Look for Nate Gerry and Kieron to provide a little more help than normal against the rushing attack with those injuries as well. Contain the run and get some pressure on Hills, that's my game plan for the Blackshirts!
I would like to say thank you and good luck to the Senior Class of 2017 for Football as well as my two good friends/co-workers Cassie Wilka and Bradyn Brownell who will be cheering at their last home game in Memorial Stadium! You're going to rock it ladies! As for the guys out on the field, it's been a lot of fun watching and getting to know a lot of you during my time here at UNL. You're all going to be missed around campus and by our football program next year, but for now, let's go undefeated at home and finish out the year strong! GO BIG RED! Huskers beat Maryland 30-13!
#CollegeFootballKnowItAll
Alex Fernando
#11 Oklahoma State at TCU
The Cowboys have two big road games ahead of them to finish off the season, and with these road games comes the perfect opportunity to win the Big XII Conference. The only problem with these two road games is that they are against the Horned Frogs and the arch rival Sooners. With everyone expecting OU to sweep through and win the Big XII, it's possible the Pokes could be looking ahead, but this is not the game to do that. TCU has already knocked off Baylor, and took the Sooners down to the wire. The Horned Frogs offense is averaging 510 yards per game and they're coming off fresh from their BYE week. Oklahoma State has been cruising under QB Mason Rudolph's 24 TDs and nearly 3400 passing yards this season. This should be a high scoring game, with both teams averaging around 40 points per game and give up an average of 29 points per game. It would be fun to see Oklahoma State duel it out in Bedlam with the Sooners for the conference title, but TCU at home is sneaky. I think Kenny Hill and the team have some confidence from their Baylor win and they're going to pull the upset in Fort Worth! Horned Frogs 46, Cowboys 40.
#23 Florida at #16 LSU
The Gators and the Tigers are finally set to clash in Death Valley after rescheduling their game due to Hurricane Matthew. This game will feature two of the best scoring defenses in the country, both giving up around 13 points per game. Statistically, both of these teams match up really well, but over the last couple weeks, it's been a different story with the eye test. LSU lost a tight one at home to Bama 10-0, but then came back and dominated Arkansas 38-10. Florida was upset by the Razorbacks 31-10, but took care of South Carolina last week 20-7. On the road puts the Gators at a huge disadvantage. They've lost 2 out of their 3 road games thus far and Death Valley does not sound like the ideal destination for a win. Florida gave up 223 rushing yards to Arkansas, and with Leonard Fournette and Derrius Guice coming off of a combined 350 yard performance, I don't think it looks good for the Gators. On the other side of the ball, Florida's offense has struggled all season, and with LSU holding Bama to only 10 points, I expect them to struggle again. I think Leonard Fournette and the Tigers keep this one at home. Gators Defense keeps it tight for a while, but LSU wins this one 30-17.
Buffalo at #21 Western Michigan
I cannot be more excited to have College Gameday post up in Kalamazoo, Michigan for the Broncos as they look to continue their undefeated season. The Broncos have been one of my favorite teams to watch all season long, and I honestly think that they would compete with more of the top teams than most people might think. I know they're in a weaker conference with one of the weakest schedules, but they are legit. They average nearly 250 yards both rushing and passing per game, and the QB-WR duo of Zach Terrell and Corey Davis is probably the best in the nation in my opinion. They get to face off against a struggling 2-8 Buffalo squad that has given up 30+ points in 4 of their last 5 games. I expect Western Michigan to continue their dominating season (only Northwestern has come within one score of beating them) and crush Buffalo, especially with the added energy from College Gameday being on scene for the game. Keep your eye on the Broncos, they deserve more credit than just #21. Also, both Terrell and Davis could be very big draft sleepers in the Spring. Look for Davis to impress once he gets to the league! Broncos 51, Bulls 10.
#22 Washington State at #10 Colorado
It's pretty interesting that two of the Pac-12's best playoff hopes are either Wazzu or the Buffaloes. Both are at the top of their respective divisions and would love nothing more than to keep that cushion against their competitors. Colorado has a bit more to lose in this game because if USC beats UCLA (which I think has a very good possibility of happening), then they will be done with their conference games, leaving all the pressure on Colorado to win out if they want to win the South Division. The good news for the Buffs is that both of their remaining games are at home, the bad news is that they are against two of the best teams in the Pac-12 with the High-powered Cougars and the always dangerous Utes coming to Boulder next weekend. This game pits two great offenses against each other, Wazzu averaging nearly 45 points and just under 520 total yards per game and Colorado averaging 35 points and 466 total yards per game. The big factors to watch are the passing attacks of each team. Wazzu has the 2nd best passing attack in the nation, averaging 385 yards per game while the Buffs only average 261 per game. However, defensively, the Buffs have the advantage on paper. They only give up 18 points per game and allow an impressive 176 yards through the air. The Cougars have not faced a defense this good all season, and if the Buffs can slow down Luke Falk and keep him under pressure (sacked 23 times already this season), they will be able to pull off the victory at home. My friend Eric has called this game as one of his upsets of the week with Wazzu pulling out the victory, but I think the Buffs will win it at home. The big key offensively for the Buffs will be to get Junior RB Phillip Lindsay the ball as much as possible. Lindsay has nearly 1250 total yards this season and 14 TDs. The Buffs offense really depends on his performance, so look for him to have a big game. I really hate to keep saying this, but I'm taking Colorado at home against Eric's upset. Buffs 37, Wazzu 30.
San Diego State at Wyoming
This game may not seem like the most appealing match-up of the weekend, but these two teams are two of the best in the Mountain West, and it features a player who should seriously be considered for the Heisman Trophy, Donnell Pumphrey. Pumphrey is probably the most underrated running back in the nation, because he is a workhorse for the Aztecs. He averages 6.6 yards per carry and gets an average of 27 touches per game. SDSU slipped up early in the year, losing to South Alabama, but have since been rolling through their opponents, averaging nearly 37 points and 435 yards per game. The Cowboys were undefeated in Mountain West play until last week's 3OT thrilling loss against UNLV. However, Wyoming has yet to lose a game in Laramie, and their offense is tough to stop as well, averaging over 220 yards both rushing and passing and 39 points per game. One or two defensive stops could be the difference in this game, and based off the stats, SDSU has the edge there, giving up an average of just 282 total yards per game. However, Eric and I both picked the upset by Wyoming in this one, and I think the Cowboys prove us right and pull it off at home. Look for a close one in Laramie this weekend! Cowboys beat the Aztecs 34-31.
#24 Stanford at Cal (The Big Game)
This is one of the biggest rivalries out on the West Coast, pitting the Cardinal against the Golden Bears. Stanford has one the last 6 meetings between the teams, but I think Cal has more of a chance this season. The Golden Bears have lost their last three games to three of the best teams in the Pac-12 (USC, Washington & Wazzu), so they are hungry as their rivals come into town. Stanford is heavily favored and has an 11 point spread, but I think this game could be a little closer. Stanford has not looked like themselves this year, struggling quite a bit on offense. The main factor for the Cardinal is still Christian McCaffrey, but he has been contained very well this season by opposing teams. The Bears offense usually doesn't have many issues scoring, averaging 38 points and 518 yards per game, but their defense needs some work. Almost every game Cal has played started in a shootout, and then their defense just let the flood gates open. Stanford may have found their offense again last week with their 52-27 beat down on the Ducks, so Cal needs to be ready. I'm always looking for the upset, but I think the Trees will get it done again and extend the win streak to 7 over the bears. I think the Cardinal defense shuts the Bears down a bit and Stanford wins The Big Game 31-22.
#9 Oklahoma at #14 West Virginia
This is the only ranked match-up the weekend and it's for first place in the Big XII conference. The Sooners can win the conference title outright with a win in Morgantown, but WVU looks to tie up the records and get at least a share of that title. Oklahoma is the favorite right now, but I think this is going to be a close, high-scoring affair. Two teams that are lead by balanced offenses and star QBs, you know it's going to be a shootout. Baker Mayfield has the experience, and the Sooners have been soaring since their early season losses. West Virginia started off hot, but have slowed down since their 37-20 loss to the Cowboys of OSU. They pulled out a close one against Texas last week and now return home to face the Sooners. The Mountaineers have played their best football at home, but I'm not really sure if they can slow down the Sooners. I think Baker Mayfield has too many weapons around him, especially the one named DeDe Westbrook. Westbrook has 14 receiving TDs this season, all coming since the fourth game of the season. OU runs away with it in the end and WVU can't keep up with the scoring. Sooners win it 47-33.
#13 USC at UCLA
The classic LA rivalry takes place at the Rose Bowl today! The Trojans march into Pasadena just one week after upsetting the #4 Huskies to take on the struggling Bruins. UCLA needs to win its last two games if they want to become Bowl Eligible, and hosting the Red Hot Trojans is not necessarily ideal. This is a rivalry game though, and bragging rights around LA are nothing either of these teams take lightly. The Bruins have struggled all season long to finish out games, losing 4 of their last 5 games all by 10 points or less. Look for them to keep it tight against USC, but I think the Trojan's run game takes over and closes out the game for the Trojans. USC wins it 30-17.
Maryland at #18 Nebraska
The Huskers close out their home games with a match-up against the Maryland Terrapins. This is the first match-up between the teams as members of the BIG 10 conference, and the first game between the teams all time! Maryland is looking to become bowl eligible with a win, but doing that in Lincoln will be tough, especially on Senior day for the class of 2017. Still no official word on Tommy Armstrong's status, but I can't see him sitting out much (if any) of his final home game at Memorial Stadium. Onto my keys to the game!
Offensively the only thing Nebraska should focus on is the ground game. Sadly, that has not been effective at all the past few weeks due to poor play calling and poor blocking. They should have a little more success today as Maryland gives up an average of nearly 230 yards per game on the ground. Look for Newby to have a big game, but also look for the return of Devine Ozigbo. He's been battling an ankle injury the past few weeks, but will likely get some action come lunchtime. If Tommy plays, I don't expect him to run much, hopefully saving him for Iowa next week. If Ryker plays, look for simple, short routes to keep the chains moving. No matter what, if Nebraska does not establish a rushing attack, this game will be closer than necessary. Injuries have not helped this case, but Nebraska's offense was pegged to be one of the best in the BIG 10 this year. I really hope Danny Langsdorf starts to show it soon and use creative ways to get his play makers in space.
On the defensive side of the ball, pressure on the QB is my main key to victory. Maryland will be looking to run the ball, averaging 213 yards on the ground per game, but if the Blackshirts can keep up their dominating run defense, that will force the Terps into 3rd and passing situations. Senior QB Perry Hills is completing 66.7% of his passes, so keeping him under pressure will help the defense get off the field. Hills has been sacked 22 times already this season, so causing havoc in the backfield shouldn't be the most difficult task. Hills may be out due to injury, so Senior back-up Caleb Rowe could get the start. Look for the defensive line to have a big game with a number of Blackshirt linebackers dealing with injuries. Look for Nate Gerry and Kieron to provide a little more help than normal against the rushing attack with those injuries as well. Contain the run and get some pressure on Hills, that's my game plan for the Blackshirts!
I would like to say thank you and good luck to the Senior Class of 2017 for Football as well as my two good friends/co-workers Cassie Wilka and Bradyn Brownell who will be cheering at their last home game in Memorial Stadium! You're going to rock it ladies! As for the guys out on the field, it's been a lot of fun watching and getting to know a lot of you during my time here at UNL. You're all going to be missed around campus and by our football program next year, but for now, let's go undefeated at home and finish out the year strong! GO BIG RED! Huskers beat Maryland 30-13!
#CollegeFootballKnowItAll
Alex Fernando
Thursday, November 17, 2016
Week 11 Reflections
Hey everyone, sorry for the later post, but WOW!!! What a crazy week of upsets!! I hope you all enjoyed the past weekend of football as much as I did and are geared up for another one. This post will have my reflections on the Huskers' win over Minnesota for the $5 Bits of Broken Chair Trophy as well as some of my predictions for the College Football Playoffs. Enjoy!
Starting with the Husker game.... NEBRASKA WON THE CHAIR!! Again, if you're unfamiliar with the $5 Bits of Broken Chair Trophy, I highly encourage you to google it and read the story behind it, because it was created from a Twitter War between a mascot and a fake twitter account for a former head coach. Anyways, Nebraska beat Minnesota 24-17 on Saturday night, giving the Huskers their 19th straight win in home night games (45-5 all time). The biggest take away from the game was Tommy Armstrong's toughness. He came back to start against the Gophers just a week removed from being knocked unconscious, and he played one of his best games as a Husker, earning BIG 10 Offensive Player of the Week Honors in the process. Tommy posted an impressive 70.4 % completion rating for 217 yards and 2 TDs through the air. He also added 61 yards and the game winning touchdown on the ground. Not only did he just come back from concussion protocol, but he was also injured during the Minnesota game, having to be helped off the field with an ankle injury. At this point in the game, Nebraska had tied it up at 17, and did not look like the offense was going to move with Ryker in at QB. Tommy came back in after being taped up and lead a 91 yard game clinching TD drive where he hurt his hamstring on his rushing TD. I can honestly say that Tommy is one of the toughest competitors I have ever had the pleasure of watching. No matter what the situation of the team, himself or the game, he will fight until the very last second. No, he doesn't always make the best plays, but he is a valuable piece that Husker fans need to appreciate. Apart from Tommy, the offense is still struggling to get anything going. The Huskers finished with 157 yards on the ground (61 from just Tommy) and lost the time of possession battle by nearly 2 minutes. The offensive line is still one of the biggest issues, even with getting Jerald Foster back (had no idea he was game ready, that was cool). There's a number of issues that need to be addressed with the o-line, because their protection is not very good and there are no holes for backs to run through. I thought Langsdorf did a slightly better job calling plays this week, but there were still a large number of plays that my friends and I could call from the stands before the ball was even snapped. When individuals who have never played football can predict the play call before the snap, something is wrong with your offense. Either way, the only thing that really matters on offense is the health of Tommy. Battling a hamstring all week will be tough, and I will be surprised if he sits knowing how tough he is, but it's a possibility. That's an issue because it is very clear that the Huskers have practically a 0% chance of winning if Ryker plays. Getting the ground game back will be key this week against Maryland, not only to take some pressure off Tommy, but also to help Ryker if Tommy needs to come out.
On the defensive side of the ball, I thought the Blackshirts played fairly well. Definitely better than the previous week in Columbus where they could not stop anyone. The Blackshirts only gave up 265 total yards (180 passing & 85 rushing) and game away with another late game pick to seal the win. I was surprised that the Gophers did not try to run the ball with Mitch Leidner very much, but I know he's had concussion issues this year, so I don't blame them for being cautious. It's been made clear that the secondary wants to give up all the underneath routes to be protected from getting beat deep. I'm not necessarily opposed to this strategy (overall it's worked well this season), but I do think that this should be used situational. When it's 3rd and 5-12ish, there is no reason to play 10+ yards off of the ball giving such a large cushion to the receivers. You don't have to press in all of those situations, but a tighter cushion could help the defense get off the field more often. There are too many underneath passes on 3rd downs that keep drives alive for opponents. Minnesota finished with a 50% conversion rate on 3rd downs. There were also a number of dumb penalties on both sides for Nebraska in this game (I counted a number of big holding calls on the Gophers that were not flagged, but this comment is just beating a dead horse). Cleaning up the penalties will also help get the defense off the field and allow the offense to move the ball more consistently. Look for that to be addressed over the week.
Now onto my thoughts of the College Football Playoff rankings and my predictions of teams that will get in. I was surprised, but not shocked that the Playoff Committee chose to keep Michigan and Clemson in the top 4. I personally think that Louisville should be in the top 4, but they still need outside help because of their loss to Clemson. I'm surprised Michigan didn't fall more because they have been dominating nearly everyone on their schedule, but they lose to Iowa? I'm sorry (not that sorry) to my Iowa friends, but that is not a team that should have been locking down the Wolverines. Is Michigan's weaker schedule catching up to them? I think that they will lose in Columbus against the Buckeyes, which will likely send Penn State to the BIG 10 Championship if they win out against two of the worst teams in the BIG 10 this year (@Rutgers and home for Sparty). Then on the West side of the BIG 10, Wisconsin will more than likely beat Purdue and Minnesota, sending them to Indy over the Huskers due to their head-to-head overtime win. This scenario would put two 2-loss BIG 10 teams in the Conference Championship, both of which who are not likely to slip up over the next couple weeks. The winner of the BIG 10 Championship will (in my humble opinion) for sure lock in that team for the Playoffs. The BIG 10 Conference is too strong to leave out it's conference champion. However, IF this all happens and either the Badgers or Nittany Lions get into the CFP with 2-losses, what about the Buckeyes?? Ohio State would be sitting at 11-1, no conference title, but multiple wins over top 10 teams and having an impressive non-conference win against the likely Big XII champ Oklahoma (watch the WVU-OU game this weekend and Bedlam next weekend, ya never know). I believe the Buckeyes would have a strong argument to get into the Playoff, but the committee would have to put them in over Clemson, Louisville, or Washington (I stand by my pre-season statement of NO Big XII team getting into the playoff this year). Louisville will not get into the play off unless Clemson drops another game and gives the Cardinals a chance to win the ACC, so we'll take them out now. That means Ohio State would be compared to the likely ACC Champion Tigers and the likely Pac-12 Champion Huskies (Apple Cup & a sneaky Colorado could change that). How much does a Conference Champion Title matter to the Committee? That will be the biggest question at the end of the month if all the teams win like they're expected to. I personally would put Ohio State over Washington, and my friend Nate agrees with me on that. However, he thinks the committee will take a conference champion over the high-powered Buckeyes. It's hard to think of all the possibilities, and I do think an 8 team playoff will come in time because of this system, but all I know is that there is going to be some great football over the next couple weeks! One thing is ALMOST certain, and that is Bama. As much as I would love an upset on the Tide, they look nearly unbeatable. That's the good thing about College Football though, you never know what's going to happen on any given weekend! Thanks for reading and GO BIG RED!
#CollegeFootballKnowItAll
Alex Fernando
Starting with the Husker game.... NEBRASKA WON THE CHAIR!! Again, if you're unfamiliar with the $5 Bits of Broken Chair Trophy, I highly encourage you to google it and read the story behind it, because it was created from a Twitter War between a mascot and a fake twitter account for a former head coach. Anyways, Nebraska beat Minnesota 24-17 on Saturday night, giving the Huskers their 19th straight win in home night games (45-5 all time). The biggest take away from the game was Tommy Armstrong's toughness. He came back to start against the Gophers just a week removed from being knocked unconscious, and he played one of his best games as a Husker, earning BIG 10 Offensive Player of the Week Honors in the process. Tommy posted an impressive 70.4 % completion rating for 217 yards and 2 TDs through the air. He also added 61 yards and the game winning touchdown on the ground. Not only did he just come back from concussion protocol, but he was also injured during the Minnesota game, having to be helped off the field with an ankle injury. At this point in the game, Nebraska had tied it up at 17, and did not look like the offense was going to move with Ryker in at QB. Tommy came back in after being taped up and lead a 91 yard game clinching TD drive where he hurt his hamstring on his rushing TD. I can honestly say that Tommy is one of the toughest competitors I have ever had the pleasure of watching. No matter what the situation of the team, himself or the game, he will fight until the very last second. No, he doesn't always make the best plays, but he is a valuable piece that Husker fans need to appreciate. Apart from Tommy, the offense is still struggling to get anything going. The Huskers finished with 157 yards on the ground (61 from just Tommy) and lost the time of possession battle by nearly 2 minutes. The offensive line is still one of the biggest issues, even with getting Jerald Foster back (had no idea he was game ready, that was cool). There's a number of issues that need to be addressed with the o-line, because their protection is not very good and there are no holes for backs to run through. I thought Langsdorf did a slightly better job calling plays this week, but there were still a large number of plays that my friends and I could call from the stands before the ball was even snapped. When individuals who have never played football can predict the play call before the snap, something is wrong with your offense. Either way, the only thing that really matters on offense is the health of Tommy. Battling a hamstring all week will be tough, and I will be surprised if he sits knowing how tough he is, but it's a possibility. That's an issue because it is very clear that the Huskers have practically a 0% chance of winning if Ryker plays. Getting the ground game back will be key this week against Maryland, not only to take some pressure off Tommy, but also to help Ryker if Tommy needs to come out.
On the defensive side of the ball, I thought the Blackshirts played fairly well. Definitely better than the previous week in Columbus where they could not stop anyone. The Blackshirts only gave up 265 total yards (180 passing & 85 rushing) and game away with another late game pick to seal the win. I was surprised that the Gophers did not try to run the ball with Mitch Leidner very much, but I know he's had concussion issues this year, so I don't blame them for being cautious. It's been made clear that the secondary wants to give up all the underneath routes to be protected from getting beat deep. I'm not necessarily opposed to this strategy (overall it's worked well this season), but I do think that this should be used situational. When it's 3rd and 5-12ish, there is no reason to play 10+ yards off of the ball giving such a large cushion to the receivers. You don't have to press in all of those situations, but a tighter cushion could help the defense get off the field more often. There are too many underneath passes on 3rd downs that keep drives alive for opponents. Minnesota finished with a 50% conversion rate on 3rd downs. There were also a number of dumb penalties on both sides for Nebraska in this game (I counted a number of big holding calls on the Gophers that were not flagged, but this comment is just beating a dead horse). Cleaning up the penalties will also help get the defense off the field and allow the offense to move the ball more consistently. Look for that to be addressed over the week.
Now onto my thoughts of the College Football Playoff rankings and my predictions of teams that will get in. I was surprised, but not shocked that the Playoff Committee chose to keep Michigan and Clemson in the top 4. I personally think that Louisville should be in the top 4, but they still need outside help because of their loss to Clemson. I'm surprised Michigan didn't fall more because they have been dominating nearly everyone on their schedule, but they lose to Iowa? I'm sorry (not that sorry) to my Iowa friends, but that is not a team that should have been locking down the Wolverines. Is Michigan's weaker schedule catching up to them? I think that they will lose in Columbus against the Buckeyes, which will likely send Penn State to the BIG 10 Championship if they win out against two of the worst teams in the BIG 10 this year (@Rutgers and home for Sparty). Then on the West side of the BIG 10, Wisconsin will more than likely beat Purdue and Minnesota, sending them to Indy over the Huskers due to their head-to-head overtime win. This scenario would put two 2-loss BIG 10 teams in the Conference Championship, both of which who are not likely to slip up over the next couple weeks. The winner of the BIG 10 Championship will (in my humble opinion) for sure lock in that team for the Playoffs. The BIG 10 Conference is too strong to leave out it's conference champion. However, IF this all happens and either the Badgers or Nittany Lions get into the CFP with 2-losses, what about the Buckeyes?? Ohio State would be sitting at 11-1, no conference title, but multiple wins over top 10 teams and having an impressive non-conference win against the likely Big XII champ Oklahoma (watch the WVU-OU game this weekend and Bedlam next weekend, ya never know). I believe the Buckeyes would have a strong argument to get into the Playoff, but the committee would have to put them in over Clemson, Louisville, or Washington (I stand by my pre-season statement of NO Big XII team getting into the playoff this year). Louisville will not get into the play off unless Clemson drops another game and gives the Cardinals a chance to win the ACC, so we'll take them out now. That means Ohio State would be compared to the likely ACC Champion Tigers and the likely Pac-12 Champion Huskies (Apple Cup & a sneaky Colorado could change that). How much does a Conference Champion Title matter to the Committee? That will be the biggest question at the end of the month if all the teams win like they're expected to. I personally would put Ohio State over Washington, and my friend Nate agrees with me on that. However, he thinks the committee will take a conference champion over the high-powered Buckeyes. It's hard to think of all the possibilities, and I do think an 8 team playoff will come in time because of this system, but all I know is that there is going to be some great football over the next couple weeks! One thing is ALMOST certain, and that is Bama. As much as I would love an upset on the Tide, they look nearly unbeatable. That's the good thing about College Football though, you never know what's going to happen on any given weekend! Thanks for reading and GO BIG RED!
#CollegeFootballKnowItAll
Alex Fernando
Saturday, November 12, 2016
Week 11 Predictions
Hey everyone, I hope you're all ready for a Saturday full of football! We've got some interesting games to watch today, so let's get to my picks, enjoy!
Baylor at #11 Oklahoma
The Bears are coming off two straight losses at the hands of Texas and TCU. Oklahoma is trying to close out their season with a Big XII championship, but their last three games are all against their biggest competitors in the conference. Baylor will probably need to win out if they're going to take home a Big XII title, but that won't be easy today in Norman. This should look like a typical Big XII match up with a whole lot of points and absolutely no defense. Baylor averages just under 40 points per game and 541 yards while Oklahoma averages 44 points per game and 558 yards. The Sooners also took place in one of the highest scoring, highest yardage producing games against Texas Tech a few weeks ago. However, Baylor will have to rely even more on QB Seth Russel because star RB Shock Linwood is suspended after shoving a Graduate Assistant on the sidelines of their last game. Without a consistent running game the Bears will be at a slight disadvantage, but again, Baylor can always score points and OU gives up a lot of them. My buddy Eric Bertrand has been picking upsets the last few weeks and has been spot on every time! He called the Penn State upset on the Buckeyes, he called the Texas upset on Baylor, and last week he called both TCU over the Bears and Arkansas over Florida! With all that on the line, he told me the upset of the week takes place in Norman with the Bears upsetting the Sooners on the road! I've learned not to argue with him based over the past couple weeks, so I'm giving this game all to Eric. He's calling for the Bears on the upset 56-51! Sic 'em!
Mississippi State at #1 Alabama
The Bulldogs are coming off a major upset win last week where they beat #4 Texas A&M, and the Tide are coming off probably the toughest game they've played this season against the Tigers of LSU. Coming off two very different games can cause these two teams to play in very different ways. Mississippi State is never a team to underestimate with Dan Mullins at the helm, and his team is playing with a lot of confidence after last week. The Tide could be a little sluggish coming out of Death Valley and starting up at 11 am, so they might not Roll to easy today. The key for this game is the Bulldogs defense. They haven't been the most impressive this season, but for a majority of the game, they shut down Texas A&M. If they can keep the game close with the Tide, star QB Nick Fitzgerald could cause Bama some headaches. Fitzgerald was the issue for the Aggies last weekend, and he has over 2500 total yards and 24 TDs on the season. If the Tide's defense has any weakness, it's a dual-threat QB. Sadly, I don't think the Bulldogs will pull it off, but I think it could be a little closer than the 30 point spread. I'm rooting for some chaos from the Bulldogs, but I've got the Tide Rolling 40-17.
#16 West Virginia at Texas
The Mountaineers were one of my favorites to swipe the Big XII title away from Oklahoma, but will need to win out if they want to make that happen. Playing in Austin is never easy, especially with the Longhorns starting to surge in the last part of the season. This one has potential for a lot of points, but I think it will be a little more tame. Texas's best chance to pull the upset is running the ball. Longhorn RB D'Onta Foreman ran for 341 yards and 3 TDs last week against the Red Raiders, so if they want to win, Foreman will be the main focus. West Virginia is only favored by a little bit, and their defense will have their hands full since Texas averages 37 points and 505 yards per game. Skylar Howard is hard to pick against, and you know he'll have the offense humming. This one is tough to pick, but I'm going to take the Mountaineers on the road. I think they're playing well right now, but don't forget about Texas! I wouldn't be surprised if the Longhorns pull this game out, but it's a close one either way. I'll go with West Virginia 34-30.
#10 Penn State at Indiana
The Nittany Lions find themselves back in the top 10, and they don't look to stop rolling. They've won 5 straight since their beat down at Michigan and statistically still have a chance to win the BIG 10 East with a little help. The last three games aren't the most intimidating, but a trip to Bloomington is not ideal to keep a winning streak going. The Hoosiers have hung around with every team they've played this season, and are looking to become Bowl eligible with a win today. Their best chance for the upset is holding down Penn State RB Saquon Barkely. This is much easier said than done, and I don't think the Hoosiers are quite ready for the upset yet. Look for a decently close game, but the Nittany Lions are red hot right now, so they'll play well today. Indiana will be a team to watch next year though, don't sleep on the Hoosiers for too long. Penn State wins it 30-24.
#9 Auburn at Georgia
"The Deep South's Oldest Rivalry". The game between Auburn and Georgia hardly ever disappoints. The Tigers have been rolling since starting the season 1-2, winning their last 6 games, most in fairly dominating style. They struggled a little bit last week with the tough defense of Vanderbilt, but were able to pull of the key victory at home. Georgia has yet to win a FBS game at home this year under new Head Coach Kirby Smart, let alone a SEC Conference game. But when teams come between the hedges, they better be ready. The Dawgs have lost a number of close games this year, mostly because their offense really struggles to put up points. They're averaging just under 24 points per game and only 383 yards of offense. However, even with their shortage of points, the Bulldogs are 7th in the nation in Time of Possession, averaging a little over 34 minutes per game. They will need to keep the ball as much as possible because Auburn knows how to score. Their offense averages just under 35 and nearly 500 yards per game. Look for Sean White to shine if he's able to play today, picking apart the Bulldogs defense. I think the Tigers have too much offense for the Dawgs to keep up with, so I'm sticking with Auburn. War Eagle beats the Dogs 42-24.
Pitt at #2 Clemson
The Panthers have fallen off the past few weeks, losing their last two games, but they are not a team the Tigers want to overlook. The Panthers love to keep games close, and I think the 21 point spread is a little steep. Look for Nate Peterman and James Conner to give the tough Tiger defense a few headaches today. However, I think DeShaun Watson is nearly unstoppable in November, and with the announcement that he and a couple other Tigers will be leaving early for the draft, he'll want to put on a show for his second-to-last home game. Look for a big RB duel between Conner and Gallman as well, this game will be a fun one to watch. I'll stick with the Tigers, but it's closer than the experts say! Tigers 35, Panthers 27.
Texas Tech at #13 Oklahoma State
The Pokes have been sneaking around the Big XII, and are in a prime position to win the conference. Today is Senior day down in Stillwater since the Cowboys will be on the road for their last two games, and this one will probably be a showstopper. Two dynamic offenses lead by two of the best passers in the nation. Pat Mahomes and Mason Rudolph square off leading the #1 and #6 passing attacks in the nation respectively. Texas Tech is not a team to sleep on, because they will put up as many points as it takes to keep things close. The only issue is defense, and that's where OSU has the edge. The Pokes defense can stop opponents on occasion, and that's about all it takes in the Big XII. I think defense decides this one with a key turnover, and I trust Mason Rudolph to finish out and win the game. Mahomes comes close yet again, but can't quite close it. Cowboys 48, Red Raiders 44.
#20 USC at #4 Washington
The Huskies finally broke into the College Football Playoff top 4! However, to keep their spot in the playoff picture, they will have fight off the surging USC Trojans. The boys from So. Cal have won their past 5 games, all in fairly convincing fashion. Since switching to Redshirt Freshman QB Sam Darnold, the entire Trojan offense has picked up. Darnold is completing a staggering 67.9% of his passes, and in his 5 starts, he has a 20:4 TD to INT ratio so far this year. The big key to this game is how unstoppable with the Huskies' offense be? Heisman candidate Jake Browning is leading the dominant Husky offense, and have rolled nearly everyone they've faced. Playing in Seattle will be a huge factor, but look for USC to try and manage the clock and keep the ball away from Browning and Co. The Trojan's run game has been impressive this season, and RB Ronald Jones could have a break out game. However, once Washington gets going, the play action pass using Myles Gaskin allows the Huskies to take a lot of deep shots. USC was burned quite a bit early in the year by the big plays, so look for that to be a key focus today. Huge QB battle between the two young-guns, but I'm going to stick with the experienced player. Jake is nearly unstoppable once he gets going, and I think the Husky defense will take over late in the game. The best chance USC has of winning is if Lee Corso picks them on College Gameday! Corso is an incredible 16-0 when picking the Trojans on Gameday, so the Huskies better hope he puts on the right head!! I'm sticking with Washington in a very fun game to watch. Huskies 38, Trojans 24.
Minnesota at #19 Nebraska (Battle for the $5 Bits of Broken Chair Trophy)
The Huskers are coming off their 2nd worst loss in school history, and they are still unsure of the playing status of their star QB Tommy Armstrong. All signs point to Armstrong being able to play, who has been going through concussion protocol throughout the week, and practiced with no contact late in the week. I'm still not sure if he'll play or not, and I honestly don't think I would put him out there, but everyone knows that our chances of winning without him are slim to none. Minnesota comes to Lincoln with their eyes on track to the BIG 10 Championship, but most importantly their eyes are on the Greatest Trophy in the history of the World... The $5 Bits of Broken Chair Trophy! This is an unofficial trophy created for the rivalry between Nebraska and Minnesota, and the trophy was created from a Twitter War between Nebraska fan Faux Pelini and Minnesota's Mascot Goldy Gopher. With this great piece of hardware on the line, you know both teams are going to give their all! Now onto my big keys of the game!
Defensively, the Blackshirts need to show up! I have no idea where the bus took them last week, but they did not come to Columbus, OH. Nebraska could do nothing to stop the Buckeyes last week, and now have to face a Gopher offense that averages over 33 points per game. Minnesota hasn't played the most impressive schedule this season, so their team may not be quite as solid as the 7-2 record indicates, but they are not a team to forget about. Senior QB Mitch Leidner leads the Gopher offense, and his mobility has caused Nebraska issues in the past. Look for Nebraska to focus on containing him and the Gopher run game tonight.
On the offensive side of the ball, we have two scenarios for Nebraska, Tommy plays or Ryker plays. To be honest, I don't see a lot of points with either scenario, and Eric and I both agreed when talking yesterday that this is going to be a close, low-scoring game.
If Ryker plays, anyone who has ever watched a football game (even some who haven't) will be able to figure out Nebraska's offensive plan. It's not very hard to figure out most games, but with Ryker, it's even more predictable with a couple runs up the middle for little to no gain and then Fyfe probably over or under throwing the ball to a double covered receiver on the edge. Nebraska's run game has disappeared over the past month, and they will need to find it quick if they want to finish out the season with W's.
If Tommy plays, Nebraska will still continue to work the run game, but I doubt Tommy will have many carries if any at all. The only difference is that the Huskers will try and drop back to pass the ball deep with Tommy in the game. Not a strategy that's overly effective, but Minnesota's secondary isn't the best, giving up an average of 233 passing yards per game, so Nebraska could hit some shots. Again, whoever starts at QB, the run game will be the main focus for Nebraska, which allows Minnesota to load the box and focus on the run game. Oddly enough, if the Huskers want to win, the passing attack will be important. With the Gophers only giving up 118 yards on the ground per game, and having the knowledge of Nebraska's limited offense, they will bring a lot of blitzes to contain the Huskers. Nebraska is going to have to make completions, especially on 3rd down to extend drives. The Blackshirts will need to get a break this week, and that all depends on the offense holding the ball.
As I stated earlier, I really don't expect a lot of points in this game, but I think coming home will help get the Huskers back on track. The Gophers final three games are at Nebraska, home against Northwestern, and then at Wisconsin, so running the table will be very difficult. Huskers win it at home today and keep their BIG 10 hopes alive. Nebraska brings home the $5 Bits of Broken Chair Trophy with a 23-13 victory!
Thanks for reading and GO BIG RED!
#CollegeFootballKnowItAll
Alex Fernando
Baylor at #11 Oklahoma
The Bears are coming off two straight losses at the hands of Texas and TCU. Oklahoma is trying to close out their season with a Big XII championship, but their last three games are all against their biggest competitors in the conference. Baylor will probably need to win out if they're going to take home a Big XII title, but that won't be easy today in Norman. This should look like a typical Big XII match up with a whole lot of points and absolutely no defense. Baylor averages just under 40 points per game and 541 yards while Oklahoma averages 44 points per game and 558 yards. The Sooners also took place in one of the highest scoring, highest yardage producing games against Texas Tech a few weeks ago. However, Baylor will have to rely even more on QB Seth Russel because star RB Shock Linwood is suspended after shoving a Graduate Assistant on the sidelines of their last game. Without a consistent running game the Bears will be at a slight disadvantage, but again, Baylor can always score points and OU gives up a lot of them. My buddy Eric Bertrand has been picking upsets the last few weeks and has been spot on every time! He called the Penn State upset on the Buckeyes, he called the Texas upset on Baylor, and last week he called both TCU over the Bears and Arkansas over Florida! With all that on the line, he told me the upset of the week takes place in Norman with the Bears upsetting the Sooners on the road! I've learned not to argue with him based over the past couple weeks, so I'm giving this game all to Eric. He's calling for the Bears on the upset 56-51! Sic 'em!
Mississippi State at #1 Alabama
The Bulldogs are coming off a major upset win last week where they beat #4 Texas A&M, and the Tide are coming off probably the toughest game they've played this season against the Tigers of LSU. Coming off two very different games can cause these two teams to play in very different ways. Mississippi State is never a team to underestimate with Dan Mullins at the helm, and his team is playing with a lot of confidence after last week. The Tide could be a little sluggish coming out of Death Valley and starting up at 11 am, so they might not Roll to easy today. The key for this game is the Bulldogs defense. They haven't been the most impressive this season, but for a majority of the game, they shut down Texas A&M. If they can keep the game close with the Tide, star QB Nick Fitzgerald could cause Bama some headaches. Fitzgerald was the issue for the Aggies last weekend, and he has over 2500 total yards and 24 TDs on the season. If the Tide's defense has any weakness, it's a dual-threat QB. Sadly, I don't think the Bulldogs will pull it off, but I think it could be a little closer than the 30 point spread. I'm rooting for some chaos from the Bulldogs, but I've got the Tide Rolling 40-17.
#16 West Virginia at Texas
The Mountaineers were one of my favorites to swipe the Big XII title away from Oklahoma, but will need to win out if they want to make that happen. Playing in Austin is never easy, especially with the Longhorns starting to surge in the last part of the season. This one has potential for a lot of points, but I think it will be a little more tame. Texas's best chance to pull the upset is running the ball. Longhorn RB D'Onta Foreman ran for 341 yards and 3 TDs last week against the Red Raiders, so if they want to win, Foreman will be the main focus. West Virginia is only favored by a little bit, and their defense will have their hands full since Texas averages 37 points and 505 yards per game. Skylar Howard is hard to pick against, and you know he'll have the offense humming. This one is tough to pick, but I'm going to take the Mountaineers on the road. I think they're playing well right now, but don't forget about Texas! I wouldn't be surprised if the Longhorns pull this game out, but it's a close one either way. I'll go with West Virginia 34-30.
#10 Penn State at Indiana
The Nittany Lions find themselves back in the top 10, and they don't look to stop rolling. They've won 5 straight since their beat down at Michigan and statistically still have a chance to win the BIG 10 East with a little help. The last three games aren't the most intimidating, but a trip to Bloomington is not ideal to keep a winning streak going. The Hoosiers have hung around with every team they've played this season, and are looking to become Bowl eligible with a win today. Their best chance for the upset is holding down Penn State RB Saquon Barkely. This is much easier said than done, and I don't think the Hoosiers are quite ready for the upset yet. Look for a decently close game, but the Nittany Lions are red hot right now, so they'll play well today. Indiana will be a team to watch next year though, don't sleep on the Hoosiers for too long. Penn State wins it 30-24.
#9 Auburn at Georgia
"The Deep South's Oldest Rivalry". The game between Auburn and Georgia hardly ever disappoints. The Tigers have been rolling since starting the season 1-2, winning their last 6 games, most in fairly dominating style. They struggled a little bit last week with the tough defense of Vanderbilt, but were able to pull of the key victory at home. Georgia has yet to win a FBS game at home this year under new Head Coach Kirby Smart, let alone a SEC Conference game. But when teams come between the hedges, they better be ready. The Dawgs have lost a number of close games this year, mostly because their offense really struggles to put up points. They're averaging just under 24 points per game and only 383 yards of offense. However, even with their shortage of points, the Bulldogs are 7th in the nation in Time of Possession, averaging a little over 34 minutes per game. They will need to keep the ball as much as possible because Auburn knows how to score. Their offense averages just under 35 and nearly 500 yards per game. Look for Sean White to shine if he's able to play today, picking apart the Bulldogs defense. I think the Tigers have too much offense for the Dawgs to keep up with, so I'm sticking with Auburn. War Eagle beats the Dogs 42-24.
Pitt at #2 Clemson
The Panthers have fallen off the past few weeks, losing their last two games, but they are not a team the Tigers want to overlook. The Panthers love to keep games close, and I think the 21 point spread is a little steep. Look for Nate Peterman and James Conner to give the tough Tiger defense a few headaches today. However, I think DeShaun Watson is nearly unstoppable in November, and with the announcement that he and a couple other Tigers will be leaving early for the draft, he'll want to put on a show for his second-to-last home game. Look for a big RB duel between Conner and Gallman as well, this game will be a fun one to watch. I'll stick with the Tigers, but it's closer than the experts say! Tigers 35, Panthers 27.
Texas Tech at #13 Oklahoma State
The Pokes have been sneaking around the Big XII, and are in a prime position to win the conference. Today is Senior day down in Stillwater since the Cowboys will be on the road for their last two games, and this one will probably be a showstopper. Two dynamic offenses lead by two of the best passers in the nation. Pat Mahomes and Mason Rudolph square off leading the #1 and #6 passing attacks in the nation respectively. Texas Tech is not a team to sleep on, because they will put up as many points as it takes to keep things close. The only issue is defense, and that's where OSU has the edge. The Pokes defense can stop opponents on occasion, and that's about all it takes in the Big XII. I think defense decides this one with a key turnover, and I trust Mason Rudolph to finish out and win the game. Mahomes comes close yet again, but can't quite close it. Cowboys 48, Red Raiders 44.
#20 USC at #4 Washington
The Huskies finally broke into the College Football Playoff top 4! However, to keep their spot in the playoff picture, they will have fight off the surging USC Trojans. The boys from So. Cal have won their past 5 games, all in fairly convincing fashion. Since switching to Redshirt Freshman QB Sam Darnold, the entire Trojan offense has picked up. Darnold is completing a staggering 67.9% of his passes, and in his 5 starts, he has a 20:4 TD to INT ratio so far this year. The big key to this game is how unstoppable with the Huskies' offense be? Heisman candidate Jake Browning is leading the dominant Husky offense, and have rolled nearly everyone they've faced. Playing in Seattle will be a huge factor, but look for USC to try and manage the clock and keep the ball away from Browning and Co. The Trojan's run game has been impressive this season, and RB Ronald Jones could have a break out game. However, once Washington gets going, the play action pass using Myles Gaskin allows the Huskies to take a lot of deep shots. USC was burned quite a bit early in the year by the big plays, so look for that to be a key focus today. Huge QB battle between the two young-guns, but I'm going to stick with the experienced player. Jake is nearly unstoppable once he gets going, and I think the Husky defense will take over late in the game. The best chance USC has of winning is if Lee Corso picks them on College Gameday! Corso is an incredible 16-0 when picking the Trojans on Gameday, so the Huskies better hope he puts on the right head!! I'm sticking with Washington in a very fun game to watch. Huskies 38, Trojans 24.
Minnesota at #19 Nebraska (Battle for the $5 Bits of Broken Chair Trophy)
The Huskers are coming off their 2nd worst loss in school history, and they are still unsure of the playing status of their star QB Tommy Armstrong. All signs point to Armstrong being able to play, who has been going through concussion protocol throughout the week, and practiced with no contact late in the week. I'm still not sure if he'll play or not, and I honestly don't think I would put him out there, but everyone knows that our chances of winning without him are slim to none. Minnesota comes to Lincoln with their eyes on track to the BIG 10 Championship, but most importantly their eyes are on the Greatest Trophy in the history of the World... The $5 Bits of Broken Chair Trophy! This is an unofficial trophy created for the rivalry between Nebraska and Minnesota, and the trophy was created from a Twitter War between Nebraska fan Faux Pelini and Minnesota's Mascot Goldy Gopher. With this great piece of hardware on the line, you know both teams are going to give their all! Now onto my big keys of the game!
Defensively, the Blackshirts need to show up! I have no idea where the bus took them last week, but they did not come to Columbus, OH. Nebraska could do nothing to stop the Buckeyes last week, and now have to face a Gopher offense that averages over 33 points per game. Minnesota hasn't played the most impressive schedule this season, so their team may not be quite as solid as the 7-2 record indicates, but they are not a team to forget about. Senior QB Mitch Leidner leads the Gopher offense, and his mobility has caused Nebraska issues in the past. Look for Nebraska to focus on containing him and the Gopher run game tonight.
On the offensive side of the ball, we have two scenarios for Nebraska, Tommy plays or Ryker plays. To be honest, I don't see a lot of points with either scenario, and Eric and I both agreed when talking yesterday that this is going to be a close, low-scoring game.
If Ryker plays, anyone who has ever watched a football game (even some who haven't) will be able to figure out Nebraska's offensive plan. It's not very hard to figure out most games, but with Ryker, it's even more predictable with a couple runs up the middle for little to no gain and then Fyfe probably over or under throwing the ball to a double covered receiver on the edge. Nebraska's run game has disappeared over the past month, and they will need to find it quick if they want to finish out the season with W's.
If Tommy plays, Nebraska will still continue to work the run game, but I doubt Tommy will have many carries if any at all. The only difference is that the Huskers will try and drop back to pass the ball deep with Tommy in the game. Not a strategy that's overly effective, but Minnesota's secondary isn't the best, giving up an average of 233 passing yards per game, so Nebraska could hit some shots. Again, whoever starts at QB, the run game will be the main focus for Nebraska, which allows Minnesota to load the box and focus on the run game. Oddly enough, if the Huskers want to win, the passing attack will be important. With the Gophers only giving up 118 yards on the ground per game, and having the knowledge of Nebraska's limited offense, they will bring a lot of blitzes to contain the Huskers. Nebraska is going to have to make completions, especially on 3rd down to extend drives. The Blackshirts will need to get a break this week, and that all depends on the offense holding the ball.
As I stated earlier, I really don't expect a lot of points in this game, but I think coming home will help get the Huskers back on track. The Gophers final three games are at Nebraska, home against Northwestern, and then at Wisconsin, so running the table will be very difficult. Huskers win it at home today and keep their BIG 10 hopes alive. Nebraska brings home the $5 Bits of Broken Chair Trophy with a 23-13 victory!
Thanks for reading and GO BIG RED!
#CollegeFootballKnowItAll
Alex Fernando
Tuesday, November 8, 2016
Week 10 Reflection
I know all the Husker fans didn't have the best weekend, but there was still some great football games to watch and some fun upsets! There honestly won't be too much to say in this post, and for those of you who watched the Nebraska game... you know why. Let's just get this reflection over with and move onto Minnesota.
Horrible, pathetic, upsetting and just plain bad. You can take your pick of adjectives to describe Nebraska's second worst loss in school history that took place in the Horseshoe Saturday night against Ohio State. I want to start out by saying that the Buckeyes are that good of a team. They are very well coached, they have tremendous talent and can easily blow up a team on any given weekend... but Nebraska just looked horrible.
I'll start with the defense, because that was by far the worst performance I have seen since the 2012 BIG 10 Championship. I do believe there were a few missed holding calls, but it really wouldn't have mattered. The Blackshirts missed every possible tackle and were constantly out of position. They let JT Barrett and crew pick them apart and did not come away with a single stop throughout the entire game. They will need to get their heads back on straight and focus on the Gophers who have a better offense than many might think. They will need to get better at all phases, because the Huskers' defense could not get off the field at all against the Buckeyes.
On the offensive side of the ball, the most important take away from the game is that Tommy Armstrong is okay. I was beyond happy to see him come back to the stadium later in the game, because it looked pretty bad with him lying motion-less on the ground half-way through the second quarter. Now switching to how they played, I blame the entire first quarter on Danny Langsdorf. My friends Matt, Paulina and I were literally calling each series the Huskers ran on offense and were exactly right on every play. If the three of us can figure out what play is going to be run on every play, and exactly how a drive is going to play out, then the Buckeyes and everyone else in the nation probably did as well. The diversity in play-calling on offense is absolute garbage. The second drive by the Nebraska (after the opening pick 6) was by far the best thing the Huskers did all night, but it was aided by an incredible Westerkamp catch on another deep ball on 3rd down. Plus the Huskers only came away with a Field Goal because the play calling in the Redzone was anything but stellar. Every other team we play will have an easy time defending Nebraska even if Tommy plays. The run up the middle, run up the middle, deep bomb 3 and out series are not going to work any more. They never did in the first place. After Tommy went down with the injury, it was over for the offense. Nebraska was in the Redzone, but could not convert on 4th down and that was the last time they even had a slim chance at scoring. Ryker Fyfe will be our QB when Tommy cannot play, and our offense will not be able to move very well with him. The play calling is designed around Tommy to begin with, and as bad as he is at times, Tommy is a much better passer than Fyfe. I expect Ryker to start this weekend and NO, they will NOT burn Patrick O'Brien's redshirt. I doubt Tommy will be ready to come back this Saturday, and I think it would be a bad idea to have him play injury-wise. If he were to get hurt worse just a week after being knocked unconscious, there would be hell to pay. Nebraska needs to find a run game soon, especially if Ryker is going to start against the Gophers. I really hope the play calling changes soon too.
My last remark on the game at Ohio State is to quiet the comments of the hit on Tommy being illegal. The defender clearly dove well before Tommy was out of bounds and he was simply making a football play to stop the runner from advancing any farther. It just happened to be one of those freak hits, Tommy landed poorly and was knocked unconscious. I highly doubt there was any malicious intent by the Ohio State defender, and those individuals who are calling for his head should watch a little more football. If the same thing happened to JT Barrett and it were Nate Gerry who made that tackle, I highly doubt any of those Husker fans would even mention the possibility of a flag, and that's sad. The guys who play football on Saturday nights are college kids. They are student athletes who put their bodies on the line for their respective schools, and on both sides, they are just trying to do the best they can to win. There is no game or even rivalry vicious enough where the members of opposing teams will intentionally hurt one another just to gain an advantage. If so, their coaches better talk to them ASAP. I know a strong majority of those student athletes respect each other and the game too much to stoop to those levels. Please stop hating on a kid for making the best play possible given his current situation. Football is a crazy, very fast paced game. And for those who haven't played it competitively, it's difficult to know exactly what's going to happen in every situation, and you really do not have a lot of time to react. No true football player would intentionally hurt another, that's disrespecting the game. Thanks for reading and GO BIG RED!
#CollegeFootballKnowItAll
Alex Fernando
Horrible, pathetic, upsetting and just plain bad. You can take your pick of adjectives to describe Nebraska's second worst loss in school history that took place in the Horseshoe Saturday night against Ohio State. I want to start out by saying that the Buckeyes are that good of a team. They are very well coached, they have tremendous talent and can easily blow up a team on any given weekend... but Nebraska just looked horrible.
I'll start with the defense, because that was by far the worst performance I have seen since the 2012 BIG 10 Championship. I do believe there were a few missed holding calls, but it really wouldn't have mattered. The Blackshirts missed every possible tackle and were constantly out of position. They let JT Barrett and crew pick them apart and did not come away with a single stop throughout the entire game. They will need to get their heads back on straight and focus on the Gophers who have a better offense than many might think. They will need to get better at all phases, because the Huskers' defense could not get off the field at all against the Buckeyes.
On the offensive side of the ball, the most important take away from the game is that Tommy Armstrong is okay. I was beyond happy to see him come back to the stadium later in the game, because it looked pretty bad with him lying motion-less on the ground half-way through the second quarter. Now switching to how they played, I blame the entire first quarter on Danny Langsdorf. My friends Matt, Paulina and I were literally calling each series the Huskers ran on offense and were exactly right on every play. If the three of us can figure out what play is going to be run on every play, and exactly how a drive is going to play out, then the Buckeyes and everyone else in the nation probably did as well. The diversity in play-calling on offense is absolute garbage. The second drive by the Nebraska (after the opening pick 6) was by far the best thing the Huskers did all night, but it was aided by an incredible Westerkamp catch on another deep ball on 3rd down. Plus the Huskers only came away with a Field Goal because the play calling in the Redzone was anything but stellar. Every other team we play will have an easy time defending Nebraska even if Tommy plays. The run up the middle, run up the middle, deep bomb 3 and out series are not going to work any more. They never did in the first place. After Tommy went down with the injury, it was over for the offense. Nebraska was in the Redzone, but could not convert on 4th down and that was the last time they even had a slim chance at scoring. Ryker Fyfe will be our QB when Tommy cannot play, and our offense will not be able to move very well with him. The play calling is designed around Tommy to begin with, and as bad as he is at times, Tommy is a much better passer than Fyfe. I expect Ryker to start this weekend and NO, they will NOT burn Patrick O'Brien's redshirt. I doubt Tommy will be ready to come back this Saturday, and I think it would be a bad idea to have him play injury-wise. If he were to get hurt worse just a week after being knocked unconscious, there would be hell to pay. Nebraska needs to find a run game soon, especially if Ryker is going to start against the Gophers. I really hope the play calling changes soon too.
My last remark on the game at Ohio State is to quiet the comments of the hit on Tommy being illegal. The defender clearly dove well before Tommy was out of bounds and he was simply making a football play to stop the runner from advancing any farther. It just happened to be one of those freak hits, Tommy landed poorly and was knocked unconscious. I highly doubt there was any malicious intent by the Ohio State defender, and those individuals who are calling for his head should watch a little more football. If the same thing happened to JT Barrett and it were Nate Gerry who made that tackle, I highly doubt any of those Husker fans would even mention the possibility of a flag, and that's sad. The guys who play football on Saturday nights are college kids. They are student athletes who put their bodies on the line for their respective schools, and on both sides, they are just trying to do the best they can to win. There is no game or even rivalry vicious enough where the members of opposing teams will intentionally hurt one another just to gain an advantage. If so, their coaches better talk to them ASAP. I know a strong majority of those student athletes respect each other and the game too much to stoop to those levels. Please stop hating on a kid for making the best play possible given his current situation. Football is a crazy, very fast paced game. And for those who haven't played it competitively, it's difficult to know exactly what's going to happen in every situation, and you really do not have a lot of time to react. No true football player would intentionally hurt another, that's disrespecting the game. Thanks for reading and GO BIG RED!
#CollegeFootballKnowItAll
Alex Fernando
Saturday, November 5, 2016
Week 10 Predictions
I hope everyone has had a good week and is ready for another great weekend of football! Earlier this week, the College Football Playoff Committee shocked everyone by jumping Texas A&M over Louisville, Ohio State and unbeaten Washington to hold the #4 spot in the first playoff rankings! This weekend's games have a lot of playoff implications, so look for a mix up in the top 10 next Tuesday! Here are my big games to watch this week with all my predictions, enjoy!
#7 Louisville at Boston College
The Cardinals are coming off of a big scare last week as they had to pull their victory out of the fire against a sneaky Virginia team last weekend. Now they have to go back on the road again to take on the Eagles of BC. This looks to be an easy victory for Louisville, and they often bounce back quickly after a wake up call like last week, but don't count out the Eagles yet! Last year Boston College took the Cardinals down to the wire, losing by just 3 points in Louisville. They had 7 sacks and 16 tackles for loss in the game last season, so look for that to be another big focal point this year. The Eagles' defense loves to cause havoc in the backfield and uses lot of different blitz packages to disguise their pressure. Lamar Jackson is never an easy QB to bring down, but BC will bring lots of pressure to contain him and throw off their game plan. The Cavaliers had 5 sacks and 10 TFL last weekend, so Louisville shouldn't be surprised by extra pressure. Plus, the Eagles only give up an average of 298 total yards per game, and just 93 on the ground. Upsets are always possible, especially if Louisville has any hangover from last week, but I think Lamar Jackson will end up being too much for the Eagles. Look for them to cut into that 25 point margin a bit though. Boston College hangs around early, but the Cardinals finish out strong. Louisville 38-20.
#8 Wisconsin at Northwestern
This game has a huge impact on the BIG 10 West Division race. With Wisconsin beating Nebraska last weekend in overtime, they are only one game back of the Huskers in the West Division, and they will have the head-to-head tie-breaker. Northwestern, Iowa and Minnesota are all tied with Wisconsin at 3-2 for BIG 10 play though, and all of them have beaten one or another. Since there are 4 teams tied at 3-2, this game will knock someone out of BIG 10 Title contention fairly quickly. Everyone knows that Wisconsin's defense is one of the best in the nation, but don't forget about the Wildcats. They held Ohio State to just 24 points and Wisconsin struggles to move the ball at times. The spread for this game is only 7 points, and I think that's fairly accurate. Wisconsin doesn't score many points to begin with, and Northwestern will have all sorts of issues trying to move against the Badger defense. My biggest key to this game is Wisconsin's running game. They had success with RB Dare Ogunbowale last week against Nebraska, so look for a similar game plan against the Wildcats. If Wisconsin can keep the ball away from Clayton Thorson, they will have a much better chance at winning this game. Thorson played well last week in the Horseshoe, especially when he ran the ball. If he can make plays with his legs and keep a few drives alive, Northwestern has a good chance to pull the upset. Look for the deep ball to Austin Carr to surprise the Badgers today! Evanston is never an easy place to play, so Wisconsin needs to be careful being on the road. As a Husker, it'd be nice to have some extra cushion against Wisconsin in the division, but I think their ground game will wear down the Wildcats too much. Bucky Badger wins in a close one, 21-17.
#19 Virginia Tech at Duke
The Hokies are trying to stay ahead of UNC in the ACC Coastal Division race. They have the head-to-head over the Tar Heels, but a tricky trip to Durham, NC is not ideal. UNC has to make the same trip in a week, but this is a big match up for VT. Duke has not looked impressive this year, posting a 3-5 record and 0-4 in ACC play. However, they've played very close the last couple weeks, hanging around with Louisville and Georgia Tech both on the road. Coming back home should help them, but they will have a lot to handle with Virginia Tech's offense. The Hokies are averaging 451 yards per game and 36 points. Duke only gives up an average of 393, but Jerod Evans has been playing lights out. He has an impressive 21:2 TD:INT ratio, and is completing 62.4% of his passes. I think the Hokies will come out with a vengeance this week and put Duke away early. The spread is 11, but after two close losses in back to back weeks, I'm not sure if the Blue Devils will be motivated to fight. I've got the Hokies big in this game, 42-17.
TCU at #17 Baylor
A classic Texas rivalry game takes place down in Waco this weekend. The Horned Frogs go on the road to take on the recently beaten Bears. Baylor fell to Texas by 1 point last week, and look to get back on track to their Big XII Title hopes. The back half of Baylor's schedule is definitely the toughest, so this is where I expect the losses to pile up. Seth Russel and the Bears should bounce back this week, but that's mostly due to the fact that TCU has struggled to close out games this year. I wouldn't be surprised to see a lot of points put up in this one, because neither team does well against opposing offenses. Could be a coin toss, but I'll stick with the Bears because Seth Russel is a more dynamic QB than Kenny Hill and has a solid run game to lean on. Plus Russel takes care of the ball better. Hill has 10 interceptions so far this season, and has been sacked 16 times. Baylor wins in another shootout down south, 44-35.
#11 Florida at Arkansas
I honestly don't think anyone can predict how Arkansas is going to play on any given day. One week, they'll be running wild and upset a top team, the next week, they'll get beat by 53 points. Sadly for the Gators, they've had an extra week to think about that 53 point loss to Auburn. Florida is coming off a big rivalry win against Georgia, but now as to travel out to Fayetteville, AK to take on the raging Hogs. This is an interesting game to me because I think this may be one of the best offensive attacks Florida has faced this year apart from Tennessee. Arkansas has the potential to put a lot of points on the board, but again, you never know which team will show up. The Gators however have been very consistent throughout the year, especially on defense. They give up an average of 11.7 points per game and just 240 yards. Teams have really struggled to do much against the Gators, which plays into their favor because the Luke Del Rio- lead offense hasn't been the best. Florida only scores about 30 points per game, so I think this will be a close one. Austin Allen will have to have the game of his life, and then some to get by the Gators, but this has the Razorbacks' normal upset potential. Arkansas will really need to rely on a steady ground game to keep the pressure off Allen though. I'd like to pick the upset here, but I just can't trust Arkansas. Florida's defense wins it with some key turnovers. Gators 21, Razorbacks 14.
Iowa at #12 Penn State
Iowa is one of four teams sitting behind Nebraska in the Western Division of the BIG 10. They have a win over Minnesota, but have lost to both Northwestern & Wisconsin (all other 3 teams). Iowa has an outside chance to win the West, but they would need a lot of help and oddly enough, the last four games of their schedule looks very difficult! The Hawkeyes have 3 of their last 4 games against ranked opponents, and the first of those comes tonight on the road in Happy Valley. Penn State has surprised everyone this year and is ranked #12 after the first playoff rankings. They are also tied for second in the BIG 10 East Division with Ohio State (who they upset a couple weeks ago), and sit behind the #3 Wolverines. Iowa is coming into this game off of a BYE week, so they've had plenty of time to prepare for Saquon Barkely and the Nittany Lions. Neither team has much of a flashy game plan, they both want to run the ball, and use strong defense to stop the run and force the opposition into 3rd and longs, forcing the QBs to win the game. Penn State has a major advantage playing at home, but the Hawkeyes have won a school-record 9 straight road games, so don't think they can't handle a crowd. The biggest factor to watch is Penn State RB Saquon Barkley. He is one of the best backs in the conference, and he's looking to run all over the Hawkeyes today. Barkely has two 200+ yard rushing performances this season, and last time we saw Iowa, Corey Clement of Wisconsin had 134 yards on the ground by himself. Iowa's main focus needs to be stopping the run and forcing Trace McSorley to beat you with his arm. Iowa's overall defense has been fairly consistent this year, giving up only 19 points per game. If they can hold down Barkley, they have a very good chance to pull the upset because they have one of the strongest secondaries in the BIG 10. McSorley is only completing 55.2% of his passes, and with Desmond King lurking out there, he's bound to throw at least 1 pick today. However, defense is only half of the game, and I'm not entirely sold on Iowa's ability to move the ball. They've struggled to establish a run game lately, and CJ Bethard has not been able to throw without pressure all year (sacked 20 times). In the end, this should be a fairly close, defensive game because neither offense is very flashy. It would be interesting to see the upset, but I think Iowa's schedule is too much for them to stay in the division title race this year. Saquon Barkley takes over the game and rushes for 150ish and 2 big TDs. Penn State 28, Iowa 17.
#1 Alabama at #13 LSU
Easily one of the best rivalry games to watch every year down in the SEC. It's nearly impossible to not flip between your own game and the match-up that will take place in Baton Rouge, LA tonight. Two big powerhouses with two great defenses and a lot of playoff implications on the line. LSU gives up 15 points per game and 104 yards rushing per game. Alabama allows only 14.9 points per game and just 70 yards rushing for opposing teams. However, the powerful Tide defense will have to take on the bruising power of LSU RB Leonard Fournette. Fournette surged back into the College Football world as he literally RAN THROUGH the Ole Miss defense, flattening most of them into the ground. Everyone knows that Bama loves to Roll and doesn't have too many close games throughout the year, but everyone also knows that Death Valley is not a fun place for #1 teams. The Tide have won the past 5 meetings, but Interim Head Coach Ed Orgeron has brought new life into the Tigers. They have won their past three games and their offense has come alive as they have averaged 41.7 points over the past three weeks. Under former HC Les Miles, the offense was a mess, and often could not close out games. This new life will be huge against Alabama, because they are not easy to move or score on. Flipping sides, Bama's offense has been one of the best in the nation through this season, averaging 44 points per game and just under 500 yards. They have a very balanced attack averaging 265 rushing per game and 233 passing. LSU's defense will have their hands full trying to hold down all of Alabama's weapons. I always pray for this kind of upset because chaos is fun and I really want to see Bama fall, but that's no easy task. I think this one will be tighter than some of the previous meetings, but the way Alabama is playing this year, it's hard to say the Tide won't continue to Roll tonight. I'm going to stick with the Tide in a hard-fought victory. Alabama 33, LSU 28.
#5 Washington at Cal
I'm sure the Huskies are more upset than anyone to be left out of the first College Football Playoff ranking's top four, but they have a tough road game at Cal to focus on first. Don't sleep on the Golden Bears tonight, they can put up quite a few points and have yet to lose at home this season, knocking off both Texas and Utah up in Berkeley, CA. David Webb and Jake Browning gear up for one of the best QB showdowns that we've seen so far this year. Webb has nearly 3000 yards passing and 29 TDs this season while Browning is just under 1900 yards and 28 TDs. Both defenses will have trouble stopping the offensive attacks tonight, so I expect a decent amount of points. The biggest factor will be the run game though. Cal only averages 170 yards on the ground per game, but they will want to use all 170 of those to increase that Time of Possession and keep the ball away from the Huskies. The Golden Bears are ranked 100th in the nation in TOP, averaging just under 28 minutes per game with the ball. Washington averages a little over 30 minutes per game, so look for Cal to try and hold the ball a little longer. On Washington's side, the rushing attack is again the most important factor to watch. Sophomore RB Myles Gaskin has ran for 100+ yards in each of his last 4 games, and he gets to face the worst rush defense in the PAC-12 conference tonight. Cal gives up 286 yards rushing per game, and that's a big part of why their games are so close. Their offense scores plenty to put teams away, but their defense lets team right back into it. This upset is less likely than some others, but once again, Cal can put up a lot of points. However, I think Washington wants to make a statement and puts the Golden Bears in it's place. David Webb keeps them alive for a while, but Gaskin takes over and finishes out this game. Huskies 42, Golden Bears 24.
#10 Nebraska at #6 Ohio State
The BIG 10 showdown takes place in Columbus tonight with two top 10 teams in the country. Nebraska is coming off their first loss of the season as they fell to the Badgers in OT last week. Most people were doubting the Huskers going into that game, but they showed the nation they are deserving of their top 10 ranking. The Buckeyes are a couple weeks removed of their upset loss at the hands of Penn State, but have really struggled on offense over the past few weeks. They only beat Northwestern by 4 at home last weekend, and they're about to face a Nebraska team that is looking to fix up their mistakes from last week. Talking with some of the guys this week, they're not sad or disappointed from last week, they're just mad. They want to play more football and show everyone what this team is really made of. There's a lot of interesting things to watch in this game, but I'll start with the 18 point spread in favor of the Buckeyes. Ohio State's last 3 games have been decided by 7 points (OT Win), 3 points (Loss), and 4 points (late 4th Quarter win). So how can there be an 18 point spread between these two teams when Nebraska's only loss is by 6 points in OT, and the Huskers have the nation's best 4th Quarter scoring margin of +95. I think 18 points is far too much, and much like last week, this game will be decided by a TD or less for the Huskers. Now let's get to my keys to victory for the Huskers!
Defensively, the objective is clear, contain JT Barrett and make him throw the ball to beat you. This is much easier said than done, and JT's running ability will be a huge challenge for the Blackshirts. However, the Huskers' run defense is only giving up an average of 136 yards per game and Ohio State is only averaging 167 over the past 3 weeks. Containing the run will be key, because Wisconsin RB Dare Ogunbowale ran all over them last week. Once the run game is shut down, JT Barrett will have to drop back and throw the ball. Ohio State has really struggled to get their passing attack going the past few weeks, and JT Barrett has been under a lot more pressure. Look for Nebraska to send a lot of blitzes to throw off JT, and I think the Blackshirts come away with some big turnovers tonight. I expect a big game from #LockDownU
On the offensive side of the ball, Nebraska needs to run the ball and CALL GOOD PLAYS!!!! The play calling over the past couple games has been very frustrating, especially when you can predict the whole series before the team even lines up. If I see two run plays up the middle and then a deep bomb down the sideline for a 3 & Out series one more time, I may just lose my mind. Danny Langsdorf needs to capitalize on the perimeter blocking he has on the edge and run the ball to the outside more. The strength of our line is on the edge, and Nebraska has one of the best blocking receiving corps I've ever seen. Look for Tommy to take a few more carries around the edge tonight, because if he fakes the dive and runs around the outside, I guarantee he'll get 8-10 yards per carry. When Nebraska does drop back to pass, I really hope they call some more intermediate routes and crosses over the middle or to the corners. Ohio State's defense is very fast, so trying to go deep over the top of them will not work. Their defensive line will get pressure too quickly, and their secondary will be able to run with our receivers. Quick routes over the middle or to the sidelines will keep Tommy up right and keep the chains moving. The Huskers waste so many drives when they try to bomb it deep every other drive, and Coach Riley himself was not happy with the play calling last week, so hopefully some of that will change. I know our boys can do it, and the 4th Quarter will prove that the Huskers are not to be messed with. Big 4th Quarter and Tommy Armstrong wins this game for Nebraska. Huskers win it in the Horseshoe 27-23.
Thanks for reading my game picks for this week and I hope you all have a great weekend of football! GO BIG RED!!
#CollegeFootballKnowItAll
Alex Fernando
#7 Louisville at Boston College
The Cardinals are coming off of a big scare last week as they had to pull their victory out of the fire against a sneaky Virginia team last weekend. Now they have to go back on the road again to take on the Eagles of BC. This looks to be an easy victory for Louisville, and they often bounce back quickly after a wake up call like last week, but don't count out the Eagles yet! Last year Boston College took the Cardinals down to the wire, losing by just 3 points in Louisville. They had 7 sacks and 16 tackles for loss in the game last season, so look for that to be another big focal point this year. The Eagles' defense loves to cause havoc in the backfield and uses lot of different blitz packages to disguise their pressure. Lamar Jackson is never an easy QB to bring down, but BC will bring lots of pressure to contain him and throw off their game plan. The Cavaliers had 5 sacks and 10 TFL last weekend, so Louisville shouldn't be surprised by extra pressure. Plus, the Eagles only give up an average of 298 total yards per game, and just 93 on the ground. Upsets are always possible, especially if Louisville has any hangover from last week, but I think Lamar Jackson will end up being too much for the Eagles. Look for them to cut into that 25 point margin a bit though. Boston College hangs around early, but the Cardinals finish out strong. Louisville 38-20.
#8 Wisconsin at Northwestern
This game has a huge impact on the BIG 10 West Division race. With Wisconsin beating Nebraska last weekend in overtime, they are only one game back of the Huskers in the West Division, and they will have the head-to-head tie-breaker. Northwestern, Iowa and Minnesota are all tied with Wisconsin at 3-2 for BIG 10 play though, and all of them have beaten one or another. Since there are 4 teams tied at 3-2, this game will knock someone out of BIG 10 Title contention fairly quickly. Everyone knows that Wisconsin's defense is one of the best in the nation, but don't forget about the Wildcats. They held Ohio State to just 24 points and Wisconsin struggles to move the ball at times. The spread for this game is only 7 points, and I think that's fairly accurate. Wisconsin doesn't score many points to begin with, and Northwestern will have all sorts of issues trying to move against the Badger defense. My biggest key to this game is Wisconsin's running game. They had success with RB Dare Ogunbowale last week against Nebraska, so look for a similar game plan against the Wildcats. If Wisconsin can keep the ball away from Clayton Thorson, they will have a much better chance at winning this game. Thorson played well last week in the Horseshoe, especially when he ran the ball. If he can make plays with his legs and keep a few drives alive, Northwestern has a good chance to pull the upset. Look for the deep ball to Austin Carr to surprise the Badgers today! Evanston is never an easy place to play, so Wisconsin needs to be careful being on the road. As a Husker, it'd be nice to have some extra cushion against Wisconsin in the division, but I think their ground game will wear down the Wildcats too much. Bucky Badger wins in a close one, 21-17.
#19 Virginia Tech at Duke
The Hokies are trying to stay ahead of UNC in the ACC Coastal Division race. They have the head-to-head over the Tar Heels, but a tricky trip to Durham, NC is not ideal. UNC has to make the same trip in a week, but this is a big match up for VT. Duke has not looked impressive this year, posting a 3-5 record and 0-4 in ACC play. However, they've played very close the last couple weeks, hanging around with Louisville and Georgia Tech both on the road. Coming back home should help them, but they will have a lot to handle with Virginia Tech's offense. The Hokies are averaging 451 yards per game and 36 points. Duke only gives up an average of 393, but Jerod Evans has been playing lights out. He has an impressive 21:2 TD:INT ratio, and is completing 62.4% of his passes. I think the Hokies will come out with a vengeance this week and put Duke away early. The spread is 11, but after two close losses in back to back weeks, I'm not sure if the Blue Devils will be motivated to fight. I've got the Hokies big in this game, 42-17.
TCU at #17 Baylor
A classic Texas rivalry game takes place down in Waco this weekend. The Horned Frogs go on the road to take on the recently beaten Bears. Baylor fell to Texas by 1 point last week, and look to get back on track to their Big XII Title hopes. The back half of Baylor's schedule is definitely the toughest, so this is where I expect the losses to pile up. Seth Russel and the Bears should bounce back this week, but that's mostly due to the fact that TCU has struggled to close out games this year. I wouldn't be surprised to see a lot of points put up in this one, because neither team does well against opposing offenses. Could be a coin toss, but I'll stick with the Bears because Seth Russel is a more dynamic QB than Kenny Hill and has a solid run game to lean on. Plus Russel takes care of the ball better. Hill has 10 interceptions so far this season, and has been sacked 16 times. Baylor wins in another shootout down south, 44-35.
#11 Florida at Arkansas
I honestly don't think anyone can predict how Arkansas is going to play on any given day. One week, they'll be running wild and upset a top team, the next week, they'll get beat by 53 points. Sadly for the Gators, they've had an extra week to think about that 53 point loss to Auburn. Florida is coming off a big rivalry win against Georgia, but now as to travel out to Fayetteville, AK to take on the raging Hogs. This is an interesting game to me because I think this may be one of the best offensive attacks Florida has faced this year apart from Tennessee. Arkansas has the potential to put a lot of points on the board, but again, you never know which team will show up. The Gators however have been very consistent throughout the year, especially on defense. They give up an average of 11.7 points per game and just 240 yards. Teams have really struggled to do much against the Gators, which plays into their favor because the Luke Del Rio- lead offense hasn't been the best. Florida only scores about 30 points per game, so I think this will be a close one. Austin Allen will have to have the game of his life, and then some to get by the Gators, but this has the Razorbacks' normal upset potential. Arkansas will really need to rely on a steady ground game to keep the pressure off Allen though. I'd like to pick the upset here, but I just can't trust Arkansas. Florida's defense wins it with some key turnovers. Gators 21, Razorbacks 14.
Iowa at #12 Penn State
Iowa is one of four teams sitting behind Nebraska in the Western Division of the BIG 10. They have a win over Minnesota, but have lost to both Northwestern & Wisconsin (all other 3 teams). Iowa has an outside chance to win the West, but they would need a lot of help and oddly enough, the last four games of their schedule looks very difficult! The Hawkeyes have 3 of their last 4 games against ranked opponents, and the first of those comes tonight on the road in Happy Valley. Penn State has surprised everyone this year and is ranked #12 after the first playoff rankings. They are also tied for second in the BIG 10 East Division with Ohio State (who they upset a couple weeks ago), and sit behind the #3 Wolverines. Iowa is coming into this game off of a BYE week, so they've had plenty of time to prepare for Saquon Barkely and the Nittany Lions. Neither team has much of a flashy game plan, they both want to run the ball, and use strong defense to stop the run and force the opposition into 3rd and longs, forcing the QBs to win the game. Penn State has a major advantage playing at home, but the Hawkeyes have won a school-record 9 straight road games, so don't think they can't handle a crowd. The biggest factor to watch is Penn State RB Saquon Barkley. He is one of the best backs in the conference, and he's looking to run all over the Hawkeyes today. Barkely has two 200+ yard rushing performances this season, and last time we saw Iowa, Corey Clement of Wisconsin had 134 yards on the ground by himself. Iowa's main focus needs to be stopping the run and forcing Trace McSorley to beat you with his arm. Iowa's overall defense has been fairly consistent this year, giving up only 19 points per game. If they can hold down Barkley, they have a very good chance to pull the upset because they have one of the strongest secondaries in the BIG 10. McSorley is only completing 55.2% of his passes, and with Desmond King lurking out there, he's bound to throw at least 1 pick today. However, defense is only half of the game, and I'm not entirely sold on Iowa's ability to move the ball. They've struggled to establish a run game lately, and CJ Bethard has not been able to throw without pressure all year (sacked 20 times). In the end, this should be a fairly close, defensive game because neither offense is very flashy. It would be interesting to see the upset, but I think Iowa's schedule is too much for them to stay in the division title race this year. Saquon Barkley takes over the game and rushes for 150ish and 2 big TDs. Penn State 28, Iowa 17.
#1 Alabama at #13 LSU
Easily one of the best rivalry games to watch every year down in the SEC. It's nearly impossible to not flip between your own game and the match-up that will take place in Baton Rouge, LA tonight. Two big powerhouses with two great defenses and a lot of playoff implications on the line. LSU gives up 15 points per game and 104 yards rushing per game. Alabama allows only 14.9 points per game and just 70 yards rushing for opposing teams. However, the powerful Tide defense will have to take on the bruising power of LSU RB Leonard Fournette. Fournette surged back into the College Football world as he literally RAN THROUGH the Ole Miss defense, flattening most of them into the ground. Everyone knows that Bama loves to Roll and doesn't have too many close games throughout the year, but everyone also knows that Death Valley is not a fun place for #1 teams. The Tide have won the past 5 meetings, but Interim Head Coach Ed Orgeron has brought new life into the Tigers. They have won their past three games and their offense has come alive as they have averaged 41.7 points over the past three weeks. Under former HC Les Miles, the offense was a mess, and often could not close out games. This new life will be huge against Alabama, because they are not easy to move or score on. Flipping sides, Bama's offense has been one of the best in the nation through this season, averaging 44 points per game and just under 500 yards. They have a very balanced attack averaging 265 rushing per game and 233 passing. LSU's defense will have their hands full trying to hold down all of Alabama's weapons. I always pray for this kind of upset because chaos is fun and I really want to see Bama fall, but that's no easy task. I think this one will be tighter than some of the previous meetings, but the way Alabama is playing this year, it's hard to say the Tide won't continue to Roll tonight. I'm going to stick with the Tide in a hard-fought victory. Alabama 33, LSU 28.
#5 Washington at Cal
I'm sure the Huskies are more upset than anyone to be left out of the first College Football Playoff ranking's top four, but they have a tough road game at Cal to focus on first. Don't sleep on the Golden Bears tonight, they can put up quite a few points and have yet to lose at home this season, knocking off both Texas and Utah up in Berkeley, CA. David Webb and Jake Browning gear up for one of the best QB showdowns that we've seen so far this year. Webb has nearly 3000 yards passing and 29 TDs this season while Browning is just under 1900 yards and 28 TDs. Both defenses will have trouble stopping the offensive attacks tonight, so I expect a decent amount of points. The biggest factor will be the run game though. Cal only averages 170 yards on the ground per game, but they will want to use all 170 of those to increase that Time of Possession and keep the ball away from the Huskies. The Golden Bears are ranked 100th in the nation in TOP, averaging just under 28 minutes per game with the ball. Washington averages a little over 30 minutes per game, so look for Cal to try and hold the ball a little longer. On Washington's side, the rushing attack is again the most important factor to watch. Sophomore RB Myles Gaskin has ran for 100+ yards in each of his last 4 games, and he gets to face the worst rush defense in the PAC-12 conference tonight. Cal gives up 286 yards rushing per game, and that's a big part of why their games are so close. Their offense scores plenty to put teams away, but their defense lets team right back into it. This upset is less likely than some others, but once again, Cal can put up a lot of points. However, I think Washington wants to make a statement and puts the Golden Bears in it's place. David Webb keeps them alive for a while, but Gaskin takes over and finishes out this game. Huskies 42, Golden Bears 24.
#10 Nebraska at #6 Ohio State
The BIG 10 showdown takes place in Columbus tonight with two top 10 teams in the country. Nebraska is coming off their first loss of the season as they fell to the Badgers in OT last week. Most people were doubting the Huskers going into that game, but they showed the nation they are deserving of their top 10 ranking. The Buckeyes are a couple weeks removed of their upset loss at the hands of Penn State, but have really struggled on offense over the past few weeks. They only beat Northwestern by 4 at home last weekend, and they're about to face a Nebraska team that is looking to fix up their mistakes from last week. Talking with some of the guys this week, they're not sad or disappointed from last week, they're just mad. They want to play more football and show everyone what this team is really made of. There's a lot of interesting things to watch in this game, but I'll start with the 18 point spread in favor of the Buckeyes. Ohio State's last 3 games have been decided by 7 points (OT Win), 3 points (Loss), and 4 points (late 4th Quarter win). So how can there be an 18 point spread between these two teams when Nebraska's only loss is by 6 points in OT, and the Huskers have the nation's best 4th Quarter scoring margin of +95. I think 18 points is far too much, and much like last week, this game will be decided by a TD or less for the Huskers. Now let's get to my keys to victory for the Huskers!
Defensively, the objective is clear, contain JT Barrett and make him throw the ball to beat you. This is much easier said than done, and JT's running ability will be a huge challenge for the Blackshirts. However, the Huskers' run defense is only giving up an average of 136 yards per game and Ohio State is only averaging 167 over the past 3 weeks. Containing the run will be key, because Wisconsin RB Dare Ogunbowale ran all over them last week. Once the run game is shut down, JT Barrett will have to drop back and throw the ball. Ohio State has really struggled to get their passing attack going the past few weeks, and JT Barrett has been under a lot more pressure. Look for Nebraska to send a lot of blitzes to throw off JT, and I think the Blackshirts come away with some big turnovers tonight. I expect a big game from #LockDownU
On the offensive side of the ball, Nebraska needs to run the ball and CALL GOOD PLAYS!!!! The play calling over the past couple games has been very frustrating, especially when you can predict the whole series before the team even lines up. If I see two run plays up the middle and then a deep bomb down the sideline for a 3 & Out series one more time, I may just lose my mind. Danny Langsdorf needs to capitalize on the perimeter blocking he has on the edge and run the ball to the outside more. The strength of our line is on the edge, and Nebraska has one of the best blocking receiving corps I've ever seen. Look for Tommy to take a few more carries around the edge tonight, because if he fakes the dive and runs around the outside, I guarantee he'll get 8-10 yards per carry. When Nebraska does drop back to pass, I really hope they call some more intermediate routes and crosses over the middle or to the corners. Ohio State's defense is very fast, so trying to go deep over the top of them will not work. Their defensive line will get pressure too quickly, and their secondary will be able to run with our receivers. Quick routes over the middle or to the sidelines will keep Tommy up right and keep the chains moving. The Huskers waste so many drives when they try to bomb it deep every other drive, and Coach Riley himself was not happy with the play calling last week, so hopefully some of that will change. I know our boys can do it, and the 4th Quarter will prove that the Huskers are not to be messed with. Big 4th Quarter and Tommy Armstrong wins this game for Nebraska. Huskers win it in the Horseshoe 27-23.
Thanks for reading my game picks for this week and I hope you all have a great weekend of football! GO BIG RED!!
#CollegeFootballKnowItAll
Alex Fernando
Tuesday, November 1, 2016
Week 9 Reflection
I hope everyone had a great weekend of football, and a spook-tacular Halloween even though the Huskers lost! This post will have my reflections on the Huskers' big game against the Badgers and my predictions on the College Football Playoff Rankings that release tonight. Let's get down to it, enjoy!
A majority of the posts and comments I've seen after the game are all focused on the no-call pass interference on Nebraska's third down in Overtime. A majority of the fans on social media have been blaming the officials for the Huskers' loss, and although I AGREE that they missed the call, I still cannot blame the officiating for the loss. As I have said many times, ONE PLAY DOES NOT DECIDE A FOOTBALL GAME!! Yes, some plays have a bigger impact on the game than others, and I truly believe that they missed a bad pass interference call on that play (as well as a few holding calls throughout the game), but that is not the defining reason on why Nebraska lost. The Huskers played well, especially on the defensive side of the ball, but they missed their opportunities on offense. They had 2 interceptions on back to back drives in the 4th Quarter, and only came away with 3 points from them. After the first pick, Nebraska went three and out even though they had the ball at the Wisconsin 46 yard line to start that drive. Tommy did not have his best game, but I do think that he played well enough for our team to win. My biggest issue from Saturday was the play calling, especially in the 4th Quarter. Offensive Coordinator Danny Langsdorf seems to have the same system in mind whenever Nebraska gets the ball; 1st Down: Run up the middle and get stuffed. 2nd Down: Run up the middle and get stuffed again. 3rd and Long: Make Tommy throw into tough, press coverage while getting rushed and make sure the routes go either deep down the sideline or short underneath the first down marker. This game plan has not worked the best all season, so I really don't know why he keeps trying to use it, especially against one of the toughest defenses in the nation. Plus at the end of the 4th Quarter, Wisconsin missed a Field Goal that would've given them the lead, and Nebraska got the ball at their 27 yard line with 1:43 left in the game. All they needed to do was cross the Wisconsin 40 and they could have gotten Drew into Field Goal range. They probably didn't even have to go that far, because Drew has a big leg. However, Nebraska only moved the ball up to their own 49, and then proceeded to waste three plays by throwing an incomplete pass to Cotton, a pass for no gain to Newby, and then my most hated play of the game, a deep ball to a double-covered Brandon Reilly. I would have to go back and watch some tape to see if Tommy had a man underneath, but either way, there is NO REASON to throw the ball deep when all you need is a field goal. I would really like to know what Danny Langsdorf was thinking when he called that play, because if you send a man deep, no matter what Tommy will try to throw it to him. They should have ran a crossing route over the middle or a hitch over to the sideline to get the first down and move into field goal range. At least give Drew the chance to win the game, if he misses you go to Overtime, if he makes it we win! I am very upset with the play calling during the 4th Quarter, because although Nebraska won the 4th Quarter yet again, they missed their opportunities to dominate the final quarter. With some better play calling on offense late in the game and in overtime, I think Nebraska wins this game. That would be my main focus this week on offense for the Huskers.
Jumping over to the defense, they did everything they needed to do to keep the Huskers alive and give them an opportunity to win the game. The Blackshirts held Wisconsin to only 114 yards passing and got 2 big interceptions in the 4th Quarter. Sadly, the Achilles heel turned out to be the run defense, specifically the run defense against RB Dare Ogunbowale who ran the ball 11 times for 120 yards and the game winning touchdown. If you take out Ogunbowale's numbers, Nebraska held the Badgers to just 103 yards rushing, but for some reason could do nothing to stop Dare. Missed tackles and struggles holding the edge are really what allowed Ogunbowale to run wild, but again, when you hold a team to 17 points through 4 quarters, and get 2 picks in the 4th, you need your offense to step up and help you out. There is always room for improvement on defense, especially when you let one player out gain the rest of the team by himself on just 11 carries, but the Blackshirts proved they are not an easy task for opposing teams. JT Barrett and company should have an interesting week this coming Saturday.
Overall, I thought the game was a great performance from Nebraska, and proved to the nation that they are a legitimate contender and are deserving of their top 10 ranking. Speaking of rankings, the first College Football Playoff Rankings come out tonight, and here are my top 10 thus far in the season!
1. Alabama
2. Clemson
3. Michigan
4. Washington
5. Louisville
6. Ohio State
7. Texas A&M
8. Wisconsin
9. Nebraska
10. Auburn
My top 10 is very similar to the current AP top 10 rankings with exception for Auburn over Florida at #10. I think Auburn has better wins compared to Florida and their only 2 losses are to Clemson and Texas A&M. I hope you enjoyed my reflection post and please let me know if you have any questions! Also, BTN has a special on the late Sam Foltz, Nebraska's Punter who passed away this past summer, and I want to encourgage everyone to go watch at 8pm Central time. Sam was a friend of mine and a great example of what it means to be a Husker, not only as a football player, but a student as well. Thank you and GO BIG RED!
#CollegeFootballKnowItAll
Alex Fernando
A majority of the posts and comments I've seen after the game are all focused on the no-call pass interference on Nebraska's third down in Overtime. A majority of the fans on social media have been blaming the officials for the Huskers' loss, and although I AGREE that they missed the call, I still cannot blame the officiating for the loss. As I have said many times, ONE PLAY DOES NOT DECIDE A FOOTBALL GAME!! Yes, some plays have a bigger impact on the game than others, and I truly believe that they missed a bad pass interference call on that play (as well as a few holding calls throughout the game), but that is not the defining reason on why Nebraska lost. The Huskers played well, especially on the defensive side of the ball, but they missed their opportunities on offense. They had 2 interceptions on back to back drives in the 4th Quarter, and only came away with 3 points from them. After the first pick, Nebraska went three and out even though they had the ball at the Wisconsin 46 yard line to start that drive. Tommy did not have his best game, but I do think that he played well enough for our team to win. My biggest issue from Saturday was the play calling, especially in the 4th Quarter. Offensive Coordinator Danny Langsdorf seems to have the same system in mind whenever Nebraska gets the ball; 1st Down: Run up the middle and get stuffed. 2nd Down: Run up the middle and get stuffed again. 3rd and Long: Make Tommy throw into tough, press coverage while getting rushed and make sure the routes go either deep down the sideline or short underneath the first down marker. This game plan has not worked the best all season, so I really don't know why he keeps trying to use it, especially against one of the toughest defenses in the nation. Plus at the end of the 4th Quarter, Wisconsin missed a Field Goal that would've given them the lead, and Nebraska got the ball at their 27 yard line with 1:43 left in the game. All they needed to do was cross the Wisconsin 40 and they could have gotten Drew into Field Goal range. They probably didn't even have to go that far, because Drew has a big leg. However, Nebraska only moved the ball up to their own 49, and then proceeded to waste three plays by throwing an incomplete pass to Cotton, a pass for no gain to Newby, and then my most hated play of the game, a deep ball to a double-covered Brandon Reilly. I would have to go back and watch some tape to see if Tommy had a man underneath, but either way, there is NO REASON to throw the ball deep when all you need is a field goal. I would really like to know what Danny Langsdorf was thinking when he called that play, because if you send a man deep, no matter what Tommy will try to throw it to him. They should have ran a crossing route over the middle or a hitch over to the sideline to get the first down and move into field goal range. At least give Drew the chance to win the game, if he misses you go to Overtime, if he makes it we win! I am very upset with the play calling during the 4th Quarter, because although Nebraska won the 4th Quarter yet again, they missed their opportunities to dominate the final quarter. With some better play calling on offense late in the game and in overtime, I think Nebraska wins this game. That would be my main focus this week on offense for the Huskers.
Jumping over to the defense, they did everything they needed to do to keep the Huskers alive and give them an opportunity to win the game. The Blackshirts held Wisconsin to only 114 yards passing and got 2 big interceptions in the 4th Quarter. Sadly, the Achilles heel turned out to be the run defense, specifically the run defense against RB Dare Ogunbowale who ran the ball 11 times for 120 yards and the game winning touchdown. If you take out Ogunbowale's numbers, Nebraska held the Badgers to just 103 yards rushing, but for some reason could do nothing to stop Dare. Missed tackles and struggles holding the edge are really what allowed Ogunbowale to run wild, but again, when you hold a team to 17 points through 4 quarters, and get 2 picks in the 4th, you need your offense to step up and help you out. There is always room for improvement on defense, especially when you let one player out gain the rest of the team by himself on just 11 carries, but the Blackshirts proved they are not an easy task for opposing teams. JT Barrett and company should have an interesting week this coming Saturday.
Overall, I thought the game was a great performance from Nebraska, and proved to the nation that they are a legitimate contender and are deserving of their top 10 ranking. Speaking of rankings, the first College Football Playoff Rankings come out tonight, and here are my top 10 thus far in the season!
1. Alabama
2. Clemson
3. Michigan
4. Washington
5. Louisville
6. Ohio State
7. Texas A&M
8. Wisconsin
9. Nebraska
10. Auburn
My top 10 is very similar to the current AP top 10 rankings with exception for Auburn over Florida at #10. I think Auburn has better wins compared to Florida and their only 2 losses are to Clemson and Texas A&M. I hope you enjoyed my reflection post and please let me know if you have any questions! Also, BTN has a special on the late Sam Foltz, Nebraska's Punter who passed away this past summer, and I want to encourgage everyone to go watch at 8pm Central time. Sam was a friend of mine and a great example of what it means to be a Husker, not only as a football player, but a student as well. Thank you and GO BIG RED!
#CollegeFootballKnowItAll
Alex Fernando
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