Rivalry Week Predictions

     The best weekend of the year is here yet again!! I always hate how fast the College Football season goes by, but that just means rivalry week comes sooner! I hope everyone is ready to have a Happy Thanksgiving and watch a lot of great football while we eat. Here are all the best rivalry games to watch this weekend and my predictions on each game, enjoy!

LSU at Texas A&M (Thursday)

     This clash between SEC West foes isn't as impactful as it usually is, but the rivalry always produces good games. The Tigers have dominated the series as of recently, winning the past 5 meetings, but have struggled in big games this year. They lost to Wisconsin by 2 in the opener, Auburn by 5 in a close one, Bama in a tight one at home, and then just last week were stuffed at the goal line by Florida. The Aggies have dropped two of their last three, just after being ranked in the CFP original 4 just a few weeks ago. Looking at the statistics, this sets up to be another close one. LSU only gives up 14 points per game, but rarely scores more than that on offense. The Aggies average 35 points per game on the season, but have failed to score more than 30 in their past three games. Both offenses are struggling to move the ball, but the run game is still the focus of both teams. Texas A&M will be looking to rely more on RB Trayveon Williams since backup QB Jake Hubenak is now running the show with Trevor Knight's injury. On the other side, LSU's offense will be leaning on their Sophomore RB Derrius Guice who is averaging 8 yards per carry and has 10 TDs so far this year. Star RB Leonard Fournette did not travel with the team and will not play against the Aggies. It's hard to say which team has the edge, because both offenses struggle so much, but I'm going to go with the Tigers on the road because of Guice and their defense. I don't think the Aggies will be able to move the ball, and LSU wins it 17-9.

Friday Games

#5 Washington at #23 Washington State (Battle for the Apple Cup)

     The Huskies and Cougars square off in Pullman, WA to fight for not only the Apple Cup and bragging rights of the state, but also for the Pac-12 North Division Title. Washington also has a great opportunity to jump back into the Playoff conversation after slipping up against USC a couple weeks ago. This will match up two of the best QBs in the nation against each other in Washington's Jake Browning and Wazzu's Luke Falk. Falk leads the nation with nearly 4000 yards passing, and the Huskies defense has given up over 500 passing yards in the past two games, so they will be tested. On the other side, Jake Browning has struggled the past two games, throwing 4 picks compared to just 3 in the first 9 games. He will need to be smart with his passes to get the win against Wazzu, because the Cougars average 42.5 points per game. The main focus of Washington's offensive attack should be the ground game though. Wazzu gave up 258 yards on the ground to Colorado last week, and two Buffs players (RB Phillip Lindsay and QB Sefo Liufau) had over 100 yards on the ground. If the Huskies can get RB Myles Gaskin on a roll, they should have no problem controlling the clock and keeping Luke Falk off the field. Gaskin had over 100 yards on 16 carries last week, but may need some more touches this week just to keep the pressure off of Browning. Wazzu's best chance to win is to cause turnovers. As I mentioned earlier, Browning has been struggling the past couple games, so if they can capitalize on a couple of bad throws, they may be able to upset the Huskies. However, I think Washington is back on track after their loss, and they would love nothing more than to win the Pac-12 and join Playoff consideration. I think the Huskies win this game 40-23.

#19 Boise State at Air Force

     The Broncos are looking to capture yet another Mountain West title, but are also looking to jump into a New Year's Six Bowl by being the highest ranked, non-Power 5 team. I personally think the other Broncos (Western Michigan) are the better team, and deserve to be ranked in the mid-teens instead of stuck at #21, but Boise is still not a team to overlook. They average nearly 500 yards and 37 points per game on offense while only giving up 380 and 22 respectively on defense. Their lone loss of the season came at the hands of Mountain Division foe Wyoming in a tight, 30-28 game in Laramie. Boise will be rooting hard for New Mexico, because if the Lobos pull of the upset on the Cowboys and the Broncos hold off the Falcons, Boise will go to the Mountain West Championship game to face off against the Aztecs from San Diego State. However, Air Force will be no easy task as the Falcons have very similar offensive numbers to the Broncos, but do most of their damage on the ground, averaging 324 yards per game rushing. The Falcons have only lost 1 game at home, and that was in a shootout with New Mexico. The Falcons will need to bring their A game to upset the Broncos, but time of possession is key. Air Force averages nearly 4 minutes more TOP than Boise State does, so keeping the ball away from the Broncos is the best way to pull the upset. I'm rooting for it, that way I can see Western Michigan in the New Year's Six bowl they deserve, but I'm not sure Air Force has the defense to finish out the game. Boise wins this one 33-29.

Toledo at #21 Western Michigan

     The Rockets head up to Kalamazoo, MI to take on my favorite Western Michigan Broncos. I still think the Broncos are underrated, but an undefeated regular season could open some eyes, especially since their final game is against the other top team in the MAC Western Division. The Rockets are playing for a chance to go to the MAC championship, and if anyone has a chance to knock off WMU this year, it's Toledo. The Rockets lost by 5 last year at home, and both of their losses this season are by 2 points to BYU and 5 points to East Division leading Ohio. They are used to playing in close games this year, and they'll need to keep it close with the Broncos dynamic offense averaging nearly 44 points per game. Both of these offenses average over 500 total yards per game, and are fairly balanced. Toledo relies a little more on the passing game, but Star RB Kareem Hunt is never a player you want to forget about. He has nearly 1500 all-purpose yards this season and 8 TDs, 7 of which are on the ground. Hunt averages over 5 yards per carry and will need to have a big day to keep the ball away from Zach Terrell, Corey Davis and the rest of that Western Michigan offense. Junior QB Logan Woodside of the Rockets will also be a big factor, as he is completing 70% of his passes this season and has 40 TDs to only 7 INTs. If Toledo can play a clean game, they may be able to pull the upset. I'm sticking with my Broncos though. I think they're for real, and they're going to show the nation they deserve the New Year's Six bowl. This will be a fun game to watch with a lot of offense, but I think Western Michigan's defense wins this game with a couple of turnovers and great stops on 3rd down. My friend Eric is picking the Rockets to upset, but I've got the win for Western Michigan. ROW THE BOAT! Broncos 40, Rockets 21.

Saturday Games

#3 Michigan at #2 Ohio State (The Big Game)

     One of the best rivalries in all of sports kicks off our Saturday slate at 11 am when the Wolverines travel to Columbus to take on the Buckeyes. These teams are two of the best in the nation, and are fighting for the BIG 10 East Division Title and a spot in the College Football Playoff. Michigan is looking to right the ship after their upset at Iowa a couple weeks ago. They struggled early on against Indiana, but after O'Korn's big scramble, the boys in blue seemed to find their mojo again. They will need every ounce of that mojo to knock off the Buckeyes though, especially since the game is in the Horseshoe. Starting QB Wilton Speight's status is still unsure, so O'Korn may get the nod again. Michigan will look to rely on the ground game to control the clock and keep JT Barret and Co. off the field. Statistically, these teams are nearly identical. Michigan averages 42.3 points and 451 yards on offense while only giving up 10.9 and 246 on defense. Ohio State averages 43.8 and 493 on offense while holding teams to 13 and 280 on defense. Both defenses are fantastic at creating turnovers and there may not be two better secondaries in the nation. I expect a great game from this match-up, and hopefully a closer one than last year. It's hard to say who really has the edge, but the home crowd factor will be nice for the Buckeyes. I think JT Barrett's big game experience will take over, and Ohio State wins, but does not go to the BIG 10 Championship. Buckeys 33, Wolverines 28.

#13 Auburn at #1 Alabama (The Iron Bowl)

     Bama has already wrapped up the SEC West Division, but crushing their arch rival Tigers is always one of the biggest tasks of the season. Auburn looked out of sync a couple of weeks ago in their 13-7 loss to Georgia, but look to have the offense back on track against one of the best defenses in the nation. The Tigers average 34 points per game and around 475 yards, but the Tide don't give up much. Opposing teams only average 11.4 points per game and just over 250 yards. The other thing their defense does very well is score. Bama's offense is hard enough to stop, but their defense scores nearly as much as they do half the time! Auburn will really have to limit their mistakes, because Bama exploits them tremendously. On the flip side, Auburn's defense isn't one to forget about either. The Tigers give up only 14 points per game and allow only 117 on the ground per game. Most everyone (who is not a Bama fan) is rooting for the upset, and it's always possible in a rivalry as heated as this one. Look for Auburn to keep it close early on, but I think the Tide continues to roll and wins this game 35-17.

Notre Dame at #12 USC (Battle for the Jeweled Shillelagh)

     The Irish will want to forget about this year very quickly, and will probably want to forget about this game when it's over as well. Last week, they blew a 17 point lead and ended up losing to Virginia Tech 34-31 at home. The Trojans are riding a 7 game win streak, and come into this rivalry game as arguably the hottest team in college football right now. Some are even saying they could jump back into the playoff picture, but I personally think that's highly unlikely. Nonetheless, I don't see this game going well for the Irish, hopefully they don't give up too many points. With all the issues this season, they need an offense to clean things up. I've got the Trojans big and win the Shillelagh! USC 48, Notre Dame 24.

Michigan State at #7 Penn State

     This BIG 10 East Rivalry has conference champion implications as well as Playoff Implications. The Nittany Lions can find themselves in the BIG 10 Championship if they hold off the Spartans and if they get some help from the Buckeyes. Sparty put up a fight against Ohio State last week, and probably could have pulled the upset if they took them to OT instead of going for 2, but Happy Valley will not be an easy place to win with how well Penn State is playing this year. Nittany Lions QB Trace McSorely has played very well in his Sophomore year, passing for 2600 yards with a 17:5 TD to INT ratio, as well as rushing for 6 more TDs on the ground. He will need to play well because Michigan State will be focused on stopping Saquon Barkley and the Penn State rushing attack that averages 188 yards per game. The Spartans have struggled a lot on offense this year, only scoring 25 points per game on average, and even with all the play makers and experience from a year ago, have fallen to 3-8 on the season. They will likely fall to 3-9 and look to fix things during the off season. I expect Penn State to win this game and move on to the BIG 10 Championship with Ohio State winning. Nittany Lions 30, Spartans 16.

Minnesota at #6 Wisconsin (Battle for Paul Bunyan's Axe)

     The Gophers head into Madison looking to upset their rival Badgers and win the Axe for the first time since 2003. The series has now become quite close with the Gophers holding a slim lead of 59-58-8. The Badgers have one of the best defenses in the nation, but their offense struggles quite a bit. Minnesota has a great chance to pull the upset, because their defense is very fast and  has some impressive stats of their own. The Gophers only give up 116 yards rushing per game, and the Badgers' offense averages 200, so that will be a key factor to watch. If Minnesota can force Wisconsin to pass and try to win with their 2 QB system through the air, there is potential for the upset. However, that means the Gophers will need to score, which is nearly impossible against Wisconsin's defense. The Badgers only give up 13 points per game and 98 yards on the ground. Minnesota will need to establish a ground game and keep third downs manageable for QB Mitch Leidner. Leidner has been extremely inaccurate this year, so keeping it to third and short will be very important. If they fall behind the chains, Wisconsin will run them over. The spread is 14, but I think it will be a little closer than that. I want the upset to allow my Huskers into the BIG 10 Championship, but I think Wisconsin will win this game 24-14.

Oregon at Oregon State (The Civil War)

     Neither of these teams is going to a bowl game, and they've both struggled mightily this season, but when bragging rights for the state are up for grabs and your arch rival is across the line, records go out the window. The Ducks and the Beavers meet in Corvallis this weekend and defense could be hard to come by. Oregon gives up 42 points and nearly 530 yards per game while OSU gives up 31 and 433 respectively. This year could be a great chance for the Beavers to win, which would be the first time since 2007. The Beavers' offense has improved the past couple weeks, but Oregon is coming in with a lot of confidence after upsetting #12 Utah last weekend. The Ducks have played in a number of close, high-scoring games, but have fallen in the majority of them. I think the Beavers pull the upset this year, and ruin the Ducks' season even more. Beavers 37, Ducks 33.

#22 Utah at #9 Colorado

     Staying out West in the Pac-12, we have a big game to watch in Boulder, CO. The Buffs are on the brink of winning the Pac-12 South Division, and could possibly play their way into the College Football Playoff with some help. I think it's disgusting being a Husker fan, but I do have a lot of respect for Colorado's QB Sefo Liufau. Even though he's a Buffalo, I think Sefo is a great dual threat QB, and his numbers don't lie. Liufau has 1880 passing yards with a 10:3 TD to INT ratio, as well as 424 yards and 6 TDs (3 from last week) on the ground. He leads a stead Buffalo offense that averages 478 yards and 35 points per game. Junior RB Phillip Lindsay is also a big part of the offense with over 1000 yards rushing and 15 TDs on the ground. Utah's defense will have their hands full trying to contain all of these play makers as the Utes give up 387 yards per game. On the other side of the ball, Colorado's defense may be one of the most underrated in the country. They hold teams to an average of 18.5 points per game, and just 322 total yards offensively. Their secondary plays very tight coverage and has 13 picks on the year. Utah will have a difficult time winning in Boulder if they don't establish a ground game to keep the pressure off of QB Troy Williams. He has not thrown a pick in his last 3 games, so the Utes will be hoping for that streak to continue. For Colorado, it becomes quite simple, win this game and you're the Pac-12 South Division Champions. Lose this game and the red hot Trojans of USC are going to the Pac-12 Championship and playoff hopes transfer to them. My buddy Eric is going with the Utes on the upset, but I think Colorado is too tough to beat at home. Sefo leads the Buffs to yet another victory and Colorado wins it (this really makes me sick) 38-21.

#15 Florida at #14 Florida State

     The Gators have wrapped up the SEC East division, but instate bragging rights are still on their minds, especially since the Seminoles are looking for their fourth straight win in this rivalry game. The Gators don't have much offense, but more than make up for it with their defense. They give up an average of just 13 points per game and only 282 yards. The Seminoles have found their offense recently after their early season struggles, and most of it lies with RB Dalvin Cook. Cook has nearly 1500 yards rushing and 17 TDs on the ground. 333 yards and 5 of those TDs have been in the past two games alone. Florida gave up 219 rushing yards to LSU last weekend, but held the Tigers out of the endzone on a goal line stop to win the game. The Seminoles have a much more dynamic offense than LSU though, and QB Deondre Francois is already a young star in the making. I think he'll have a big day and lead the 'Noles to victory. My biggest reason for FSU winning is the Gator's lackluster offense. Florida has not scored more than 24 points in their last four games, and they really have no rhythm on offense. I don't think they can stop FSU enough times, and definitely cannot keep up with them on the scoreboard. Seminoles win it 31-14.

Friday Game

#16 Nebraska at Iowa (The Heroes Game)

     My favorite game to watch this weekend will definitely be the annual rivalry game between the Huskers and the Hawkeyes. One of the biggest factors to look at in this game is the fact that the away team has won the past four meetings between the teams. Iowa comes into this game riding a wave of confidence from their upset on Michigan a couple weeks ago. The Huskers roll into Iowa City on a two game win streak as well after finishing up their season at Memorial Stadium undefeated. That's come at a bit of a price however as a number of Huskers may be limited or out completely against Iowa due to injuries. The status of Tommy Armstrong is still unclear, but hopeful that he'll play. Ryker has a small cast on is left wrist after breaking a bone and needing surgery from last week's game against Maryland. If neither of those guys are able to go, Nebraska has been running Zack Darlington at QB all week, as well as some Wildcat options with DPE, so the offense will look interesting to say the least.
     Starting with the offense, (let's hope for Tommy) no matter who plays at QB for the Huskers, the ground game will be the focus. I still think we threw a little too much with Ryker last weekend, but Newby still had a career day and showed that he may be the most durable RB we have. Freshman Trey Bryant has been gaining confidence and carries over recent weeks, so look for him to be a great change of pace when Newby needs a break. Nebraska has so many weapons on offense, and they are significantly more dangerous with Tommy Armstrong under center, but Iowa will have to account for all of them no matter who plays QB. The ground game will be a huge focus this week, and if the Huskers can control the clock like they have in recent games, they have a great chance to win this game.
     Defensively, stopping the run is the most important factor. Iowa has gained confidence in their run game lately, and the two-headed rushing monster of Akrum Wadley and LeShun Daniels Jr. has caused headaches for opposing teams all season long. The two backs have combined for over 1700 yards on the ground and 17 TDs. The Blackshirts are only giving up 130 yards per game on the ground, so that will be an interesting match-up to keep your eye on. The best way for the Blackshirts to win this game is to make CJ Bethard throw the ball. "Lock Down U" has improved tenfold since last year, and Bethard's accuracy is not the best. The Huskers' secondary has 16 picks on the year, and you know Nate Gerry will be all over the field making plays in this game. I expect this to be a close, low-scoring game. First one to 20+ (if they get that high) will probably win the game. I'm sticking with my Huskers though, hopefully they can get the ball to their play makers and help out their injured QBs a bit. Let's also hope for some help from the Gophers too! Nebraska wins it on the road 20-16.

I hope you all enjoyed my game predictions and have a Happy Thanksgiving! Thankful for all this football! GO BIG RED!

#CollegeFootballKnowItAll
Alex Fernando