I hope everyone has had a good week and is ready for another great weekend of football! Earlier this week, the College Football Playoff Committee shocked everyone by jumping Texas A&M over Louisville, Ohio State and unbeaten Washington to hold the #4 spot in the first playoff rankings! This weekend's games have a lot of playoff implications, so look for a mix up in the top 10 next Tuesday! Here are my big games to watch this week with all my predictions, enjoy!
#7 Louisville at Boston College
The Cardinals are coming off of a big scare last week as they had to pull their victory out of the fire against a sneaky Virginia team last weekend. Now they have to go back on the road again to take on the Eagles of BC. This looks to be an easy victory for Louisville, and they often bounce back quickly after a wake up call like last week, but don't count out the Eagles yet! Last year Boston College took the Cardinals down to the wire, losing by just 3 points in Louisville. They had 7 sacks and 16 tackles for loss in the game last season, so look for that to be another big focal point this year. The Eagles' defense loves to cause havoc in the backfield and uses lot of different blitz packages to disguise their pressure. Lamar Jackson is never an easy QB to bring down, but BC will bring lots of pressure to contain him and throw off their game plan. The Cavaliers had 5 sacks and 10 TFL last weekend, so Louisville shouldn't be surprised by extra pressure. Plus, the Eagles only give up an average of 298 total yards per game, and just 93 on the ground. Upsets are always possible, especially if Louisville has any hangover from last week, but I think Lamar Jackson will end up being too much for the Eagles. Look for them to cut into that 25 point margin a bit though. Boston College hangs around early, but the Cardinals finish out strong. Louisville 38-20.
#8 Wisconsin at Northwestern
This game has a huge impact on the BIG 10 West Division race. With Wisconsin beating Nebraska last weekend in overtime, they are only one game back of the Huskers in the West Division, and they will have the head-to-head tie-breaker. Northwestern, Iowa and Minnesota are all tied with Wisconsin at 3-2 for BIG 10 play though, and all of them have beaten one or another. Since there are 4 teams tied at 3-2, this game will knock someone out of BIG 10 Title contention fairly quickly. Everyone knows that Wisconsin's defense is one of the best in the nation, but don't forget about the Wildcats. They held Ohio State to just 24 points and Wisconsin struggles to move the ball at times. The spread for this game is only 7 points, and I think that's fairly accurate. Wisconsin doesn't score many points to begin with, and Northwestern will have all sorts of issues trying to move against the Badger defense. My biggest key to this game is Wisconsin's running game. They had success with RB Dare Ogunbowale last week against Nebraska, so look for a similar game plan against the Wildcats. If Wisconsin can keep the ball away from Clayton Thorson, they will have a much better chance at winning this game. Thorson played well last week in the Horseshoe, especially when he ran the ball. If he can make plays with his legs and keep a few drives alive, Northwestern has a good chance to pull the upset. Look for the deep ball to Austin Carr to surprise the Badgers today! Evanston is never an easy place to play, so Wisconsin needs to be careful being on the road. As a Husker, it'd be nice to have some extra cushion against Wisconsin in the division, but I think their ground game will wear down the Wildcats too much. Bucky Badger wins in a close one, 21-17.
#19 Virginia Tech at Duke
The Hokies are trying to stay ahead of UNC in the ACC Coastal Division race. They have the head-to-head over the Tar Heels, but a tricky trip to Durham, NC is not ideal. UNC has to make the same trip in a week, but this is a big match up for VT. Duke has not looked impressive this year, posting a 3-5 record and 0-4 in ACC play. However, they've played very close the last couple weeks, hanging around with Louisville and Georgia Tech both on the road. Coming back home should help them, but they will have a lot to handle with Virginia Tech's offense. The Hokies are averaging 451 yards per game and 36 points. Duke only gives up an average of 393, but Jerod Evans has been playing lights out. He has an impressive 21:2 TD:INT ratio, and is completing 62.4% of his passes. I think the Hokies will come out with a vengeance this week and put Duke away early. The spread is 11, but after two close losses in back to back weeks, I'm not sure if the Blue Devils will be motivated to fight. I've got the Hokies big in this game, 42-17.
TCU at #17 Baylor
A classic Texas rivalry game takes place down in Waco this weekend. The Horned Frogs go on the road to take on the recently beaten Bears. Baylor fell to Texas by 1 point last week, and look to get back on track to their Big XII Title hopes. The back half of Baylor's schedule is definitely the toughest, so this is where I expect the losses to pile up. Seth Russel and the Bears should bounce back this week, but that's mostly due to the fact that TCU has struggled to close out games this year. I wouldn't be surprised to see a lot of points put up in this one, because neither team does well against opposing offenses. Could be a coin toss, but I'll stick with the Bears because Seth Russel is a more dynamic QB than Kenny Hill and has a solid run game to lean on. Plus Russel takes care of the ball better. Hill has 10 interceptions so far this season, and has been sacked 16 times. Baylor wins in another shootout down south, 44-35.
#11 Florida at Arkansas
I honestly don't think anyone can predict how Arkansas is going to play on any given day. One week, they'll be running wild and upset a top team, the next week, they'll get beat by 53 points. Sadly for the Gators, they've had an extra week to think about that 53 point loss to Auburn. Florida is coming off a big rivalry win against Georgia, but now as to travel out to Fayetteville, AK to take on the raging Hogs. This is an interesting game to me because I think this may be one of the best offensive attacks Florida has faced this year apart from Tennessee. Arkansas has the potential to put a lot of points on the board, but again, you never know which team will show up. The Gators however have been very consistent throughout the year, especially on defense. They give up an average of 11.7 points per game and just 240 yards. Teams have really struggled to do much against the Gators, which plays into their favor because the Luke Del Rio- lead offense hasn't been the best. Florida only scores about 30 points per game, so I think this will be a close one. Austin Allen will have to have the game of his life, and then some to get by the Gators, but this has the Razorbacks' normal upset potential. Arkansas will really need to rely on a steady ground game to keep the pressure off Allen though. I'd like to pick the upset here, but I just can't trust Arkansas. Florida's defense wins it with some key turnovers. Gators 21, Razorbacks 14.
Iowa at #12 Penn State
Iowa is one of four teams sitting behind Nebraska in the Western Division of the BIG 10. They have a win over Minnesota, but have lost to both Northwestern & Wisconsin (all other 3 teams). Iowa has an outside chance to win the West, but they would need a lot of help and oddly enough, the last four games of their schedule looks very difficult! The Hawkeyes have 3 of their last 4 games against ranked opponents, and the first of those comes tonight on the road in Happy Valley. Penn State has surprised everyone this year and is ranked #12 after the first playoff rankings. They are also tied for second in the BIG 10 East Division with Ohio State (who they upset a couple weeks ago), and sit behind the #3 Wolverines. Iowa is coming into this game off of a BYE week, so they've had plenty of time to prepare for Saquon Barkely and the Nittany Lions. Neither team has much of a flashy game plan, they both want to run the ball, and use strong defense to stop the run and force the opposition into 3rd and longs, forcing the QBs to win the game. Penn State has a major advantage playing at home, but the Hawkeyes have won a school-record 9 straight road games, so don't think they can't handle a crowd. The biggest factor to watch is Penn State RB Saquon Barkley. He is one of the best backs in the conference, and he's looking to run all over the Hawkeyes today. Barkely has two 200+ yard rushing performances this season, and last time we saw Iowa, Corey Clement of Wisconsin had 134 yards on the ground by himself. Iowa's main focus needs to be stopping the run and forcing Trace McSorley to beat you with his arm. Iowa's overall defense has been fairly consistent this year, giving up only 19 points per game. If they can hold down Barkley, they have a very good chance to pull the upset because they have one of the strongest secondaries in the BIG 10. McSorley is only completing 55.2% of his passes, and with Desmond King lurking out there, he's bound to throw at least 1 pick today. However, defense is only half of the game, and I'm not entirely sold on Iowa's ability to move the ball. They've struggled to establish a run game lately, and CJ Bethard has not been able to throw without pressure all year (sacked 20 times). In the end, this should be a fairly close, defensive game because neither offense is very flashy. It would be interesting to see the upset, but I think Iowa's schedule is too much for them to stay in the division title race this year. Saquon Barkley takes over the game and rushes for 150ish and 2 big TDs. Penn State 28, Iowa 17.
#1 Alabama at #13 LSU
Easily one of the best rivalry games to watch every year down in the SEC. It's nearly impossible to not flip between your own game and the match-up that will take place in Baton Rouge, LA tonight. Two big powerhouses with two great defenses and a lot of playoff implications on the line. LSU gives up 15 points per game and 104 yards rushing per game. Alabama allows only 14.9 points per game and just 70 yards rushing for opposing teams. However, the powerful Tide defense will have to take on the bruising power of LSU RB Leonard Fournette. Fournette surged back into the College Football world as he literally RAN THROUGH the Ole Miss defense, flattening most of them into the ground. Everyone knows that Bama loves to Roll and doesn't have too many close games throughout the year, but everyone also knows that Death Valley is not a fun place for #1 teams. The Tide have won the past 5 meetings, but Interim Head Coach Ed Orgeron has brought new life into the Tigers. They have won their past three games and their offense has come alive as they have averaged 41.7 points over the past three weeks. Under former HC Les Miles, the offense was a mess, and often could not close out games. This new life will be huge against Alabama, because they are not easy to move or score on. Flipping sides, Bama's offense has been one of the best in the nation through this season, averaging 44 points per game and just under 500 yards. They have a very balanced attack averaging 265 rushing per game and 233 passing. LSU's defense will have their hands full trying to hold down all of Alabama's weapons. I always pray for this kind of upset because chaos is fun and I really want to see Bama fall, but that's no easy task. I think this one will be tighter than some of the previous meetings, but the way Alabama is playing this year, it's hard to say the Tide won't continue to Roll tonight. I'm going to stick with the Tide in a hard-fought victory. Alabama 33, LSU 28.
#5 Washington at Cal
I'm sure the Huskies are more upset than anyone to be left out of the first College Football Playoff ranking's top four, but they have a tough road game at Cal to focus on first. Don't sleep on the Golden Bears tonight, they can put up quite a few points and have yet to lose at home this season, knocking off both Texas and Utah up in Berkeley, CA. David Webb and Jake Browning gear up for one of the best QB showdowns that we've seen so far this year. Webb has nearly 3000 yards passing and 29 TDs this season while Browning is just under 1900 yards and 28 TDs. Both defenses will have trouble stopping the offensive attacks tonight, so I expect a decent amount of points. The biggest factor will be the run game though. Cal only averages 170 yards on the ground per game, but they will want to use all 170 of those to increase that Time of Possession and keep the ball away from the Huskies. The Golden Bears are ranked 100th in the nation in TOP, averaging just under 28 minutes per game with the ball. Washington averages a little over 30 minutes per game, so look for Cal to try and hold the ball a little longer. On Washington's side, the rushing attack is again the most important factor to watch. Sophomore RB Myles Gaskin has ran for 100+ yards in each of his last 4 games, and he gets to face the worst rush defense in the PAC-12 conference tonight. Cal gives up 286 yards rushing per game, and that's a big part of why their games are so close. Their offense scores plenty to put teams away, but their defense lets team right back into it. This upset is less likely than some others, but once again, Cal can put up a lot of points. However, I think Washington wants to make a statement and puts the Golden Bears in it's place. David Webb keeps them alive for a while, but Gaskin takes over and finishes out this game. Huskies 42, Golden Bears 24.
#10 Nebraska at #6 Ohio State
The BIG 10 showdown takes place in Columbus tonight with two top 10 teams in the country. Nebraska is coming off their first loss of the season as they fell to the Badgers in OT last week. Most people were doubting the Huskers going into that game, but they showed the nation they are deserving of their top 10 ranking. The Buckeyes are a couple weeks removed of their upset loss at the hands of Penn State, but have really struggled on offense over the past few weeks. They only beat Northwestern by 4 at home last weekend, and they're about to face a Nebraska team that is looking to fix up their mistakes from last week. Talking with some of the guys this week, they're not sad or disappointed from last week, they're just mad. They want to play more football and show everyone what this team is really made of. There's a lot of interesting things to watch in this game, but I'll start with the 18 point spread in favor of the Buckeyes. Ohio State's last 3 games have been decided by 7 points (OT Win), 3 points (Loss), and 4 points (late 4th Quarter win). So how can there be an 18 point spread between these two teams when Nebraska's only loss is by 6 points in OT, and the Huskers have the nation's best 4th Quarter scoring margin of +95. I think 18 points is far too much, and much like last week, this game will be decided by a TD or less for the Huskers. Now let's get to my keys to victory for the Huskers!
Defensively, the objective is clear, contain JT Barrett and make him throw the ball to beat you. This is much easier said than done, and JT's running ability will be a huge challenge for the Blackshirts. However, the Huskers' run defense is only giving up an average of 136 yards per game and Ohio State is only averaging 167 over the past 3 weeks. Containing the run will be key, because Wisconsin RB Dare Ogunbowale ran all over them last week. Once the run game is shut down, JT Barrett will have to drop back and throw the ball. Ohio State has really struggled to get their passing attack going the past few weeks, and JT Barrett has been under a lot more pressure. Look for Nebraska to send a lot of blitzes to throw off JT, and I think the Blackshirts come away with some big turnovers tonight. I expect a big game from #LockDownU
On the offensive side of the ball, Nebraska needs to run the ball and CALL GOOD PLAYS!!!! The play calling over the past couple games has been very frustrating, especially when you can predict the whole series before the team even lines up. If I see two run plays up the middle and then a deep bomb down the sideline for a 3 & Out series one more time, I may just lose my mind. Danny Langsdorf needs to capitalize on the perimeter blocking he has on the edge and run the ball to the outside more. The strength of our line is on the edge, and Nebraska has one of the best blocking receiving corps I've ever seen. Look for Tommy to take a few more carries around the edge tonight, because if he fakes the dive and runs around the outside, I guarantee he'll get 8-10 yards per carry. When Nebraska does drop back to pass, I really hope they call some more intermediate routes and crosses over the middle or to the corners. Ohio State's defense is very fast, so trying to go deep over the top of them will not work. Their defensive line will get pressure too quickly, and their secondary will be able to run with our receivers. Quick routes over the middle or to the sidelines will keep Tommy up right and keep the chains moving. The Huskers waste so many drives when they try to bomb it deep every other drive, and Coach Riley himself was not happy with the play calling last week, so hopefully some of that will change. I know our boys can do it, and the 4th Quarter will prove that the Huskers are not to be messed with. Big 4th Quarter and Tommy Armstrong wins this game for Nebraska. Huskers win it in the Horseshoe 27-23.
Thanks for reading my game picks for this week and I hope you all have a great weekend of football! GO BIG RED!!
#CollegeFootballKnowItAll
Alex Fernando
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