I hope you're all ready for a great weekend of football! Houston kicked off the chaos last night with their dominating performance over Louisville last night, knocking off #5! We've got a great slate of games to pick on this weekend, so here ya go!
#11 Oklahoma State at TCU
The Cowboys have two big road games ahead of them to finish off the season, and with these road games comes the perfect opportunity to win the Big XII Conference. The only problem with these two road games is that they are against the Horned Frogs and the arch rival Sooners. With everyone expecting OU to sweep through and win the Big XII, it's possible the Pokes could be looking ahead, but this is not the game to do that. TCU has already knocked off Baylor, and took the Sooners down to the wire. The Horned Frogs offense is averaging 510 yards per game and they're coming off fresh from their BYE week. Oklahoma State has been cruising under QB Mason Rudolph's 24 TDs and nearly 3400 passing yards this season. This should be a high scoring game, with both teams averaging around 40 points per game and give up an average of 29 points per game. It would be fun to see Oklahoma State duel it out in Bedlam with the Sooners for the conference title, but TCU at home is sneaky. I think Kenny Hill and the team have some confidence from their Baylor win and they're going to pull the upset in Fort Worth! Horned Frogs 46, Cowboys 40.
#23 Florida at #16 LSU
The Gators and the Tigers are finally set to clash in Death Valley after rescheduling their game due to Hurricane Matthew. This game will feature two of the best scoring defenses in the country, both giving up around 13 points per game. Statistically, both of these teams match up really well, but over the last couple weeks, it's been a different story with the eye test. LSU lost a tight one at home to Bama 10-0, but then came back and dominated Arkansas 38-10. Florida was upset by the Razorbacks 31-10, but took care of South Carolina last week 20-7. On the road puts the Gators at a huge disadvantage. They've lost 2 out of their 3 road games thus far and Death Valley does not sound like the ideal destination for a win. Florida gave up 223 rushing yards to Arkansas, and with Leonard Fournette and Derrius Guice coming off of a combined 350 yard performance, I don't think it looks good for the Gators. On the other side of the ball, Florida's offense has struggled all season, and with LSU holding Bama to only 10 points, I expect them to struggle again. I think Leonard Fournette and the Tigers keep this one at home. Gators Defense keeps it tight for a while, but LSU wins this one 30-17.
Buffalo at #21 Western Michigan
I cannot be more excited to have College Gameday post up in Kalamazoo, Michigan for the Broncos as they look to continue their undefeated season. The Broncos have been one of my favorite teams to watch all season long, and I honestly think that they would compete with more of the top teams than most people might think. I know they're in a weaker conference with one of the weakest schedules, but they are legit. They average nearly 250 yards both rushing and passing per game, and the QB-WR duo of Zach Terrell and Corey Davis is probably the best in the nation in my opinion. They get to face off against a struggling 2-8 Buffalo squad that has given up 30+ points in 4 of their last 5 games. I expect Western Michigan to continue their dominating season (only Northwestern has come within one score of beating them) and crush Buffalo, especially with the added energy from College Gameday being on scene for the game. Keep your eye on the Broncos, they deserve more credit than just #21. Also, both Terrell and Davis could be very big draft sleepers in the Spring. Look for Davis to impress once he gets to the league! Broncos 51, Bulls 10.
#22 Washington State at #10 Colorado
It's pretty interesting that two of the Pac-12's best playoff hopes are either Wazzu or the Buffaloes. Both are at the top of their respective divisions and would love nothing more than to keep that cushion against their competitors. Colorado has a bit more to lose in this game because if USC beats UCLA (which I think has a very good possibility of happening), then they will be done with their conference games, leaving all the pressure on Colorado to win out if they want to win the South Division. The good news for the Buffs is that both of their remaining games are at home, the bad news is that they are against two of the best teams in the Pac-12 with the High-powered Cougars and the always dangerous Utes coming to Boulder next weekend. This game pits two great offenses against each other, Wazzu averaging nearly 45 points and just under 520 total yards per game and Colorado averaging 35 points and 466 total yards per game. The big factors to watch are the passing attacks of each team. Wazzu has the 2nd best passing attack in the nation, averaging 385 yards per game while the Buffs only average 261 per game. However, defensively, the Buffs have the advantage on paper. They only give up 18 points per game and allow an impressive 176 yards through the air. The Cougars have not faced a defense this good all season, and if the Buffs can slow down Luke Falk and keep him under pressure (sacked 23 times already this season), they will be able to pull off the victory at home. My friend Eric has called this game as one of his upsets of the week with Wazzu pulling out the victory, but I think the Buffs will win it at home. The big key offensively for the Buffs will be to get Junior RB Phillip Lindsay the ball as much as possible. Lindsay has nearly 1250 total yards this season and 14 TDs. The Buffs offense really depends on his performance, so look for him to have a big game. I really hate to keep saying this, but I'm taking Colorado at home against Eric's upset. Buffs 37, Wazzu 30.
San Diego State at Wyoming
This game may not seem like the most appealing match-up of the weekend, but these two teams are two of the best in the Mountain West, and it features a player who should seriously be considered for the Heisman Trophy, Donnell Pumphrey. Pumphrey is probably the most underrated running back in the nation, because he is a workhorse for the Aztecs. He averages 6.6 yards per carry and gets an average of 27 touches per game. SDSU slipped up early in the year, losing to South Alabama, but have since been rolling through their opponents, averaging nearly 37 points and 435 yards per game. The Cowboys were undefeated in Mountain West play until last week's 3OT thrilling loss against UNLV. However, Wyoming has yet to lose a game in Laramie, and their offense is tough to stop as well, averaging over 220 yards both rushing and passing and 39 points per game. One or two defensive stops could be the difference in this game, and based off the stats, SDSU has the edge there, giving up an average of just 282 total yards per game. However, Eric and I both picked the upset by Wyoming in this one, and I think the Cowboys prove us right and pull it off at home. Look for a close one in Laramie this weekend! Cowboys beat the Aztecs 34-31.
#24 Stanford at Cal (The Big Game)
This is one of the biggest rivalries out on the West Coast, pitting the Cardinal against the Golden Bears. Stanford has one the last 6 meetings between the teams, but I think Cal has more of a chance this season. The Golden Bears have lost their last three games to three of the best teams in the Pac-12 (USC, Washington & Wazzu), so they are hungry as their rivals come into town. Stanford is heavily favored and has an 11 point spread, but I think this game could be a little closer. Stanford has not looked like themselves this year, struggling quite a bit on offense. The main factor for the Cardinal is still Christian McCaffrey, but he has been contained very well this season by opposing teams. The Bears offense usually doesn't have many issues scoring, averaging 38 points and 518 yards per game, but their defense needs some work. Almost every game Cal has played started in a shootout, and then their defense just let the flood gates open. Stanford may have found their offense again last week with their 52-27 beat down on the Ducks, so Cal needs to be ready. I'm always looking for the upset, but I think the Trees will get it done again and extend the win streak to 7 over the bears. I think the Cardinal defense shuts the Bears down a bit and Stanford wins The Big Game 31-22.
#9 Oklahoma at #14 West Virginia
This is the only ranked match-up the weekend and it's for first place in the Big XII conference. The Sooners can win the conference title outright with a win in Morgantown, but WVU looks to tie up the records and get at least a share of that title. Oklahoma is the favorite right now, but I think this is going to be a close, high-scoring affair. Two teams that are lead by balanced offenses and star QBs, you know it's going to be a shootout. Baker Mayfield has the experience, and the Sooners have been soaring since their early season losses. West Virginia started off hot, but have slowed down since their 37-20 loss to the Cowboys of OSU. They pulled out a close one against Texas last week and now return home to face the Sooners. The Mountaineers have played their best football at home, but I'm not really sure if they can slow down the Sooners. I think Baker Mayfield has too many weapons around him, especially the one named DeDe Westbrook. Westbrook has 14 receiving TDs this season, all coming since the fourth game of the season. OU runs away with it in the end and WVU can't keep up with the scoring. Sooners win it 47-33.
#13 USC at UCLA
The classic LA rivalry takes place at the Rose Bowl today! The Trojans march into Pasadena just one week after upsetting the #4 Huskies to take on the struggling Bruins. UCLA needs to win its last two games if they want to become Bowl Eligible, and hosting the Red Hot Trojans is not necessarily ideal. This is a rivalry game though, and bragging rights around LA are nothing either of these teams take lightly. The Bruins have struggled all season long to finish out games, losing 4 of their last 5 games all by 10 points or less. Look for them to keep it tight against USC, but I think the Trojan's run game takes over and closes out the game for the Trojans. USC wins it 30-17.
Maryland at #18 Nebraska
The Huskers close out their home games with a match-up against the Maryland Terrapins. This is the first match-up between the teams as members of the BIG 10 conference, and the first game between the teams all time! Maryland is looking to become bowl eligible with a win, but doing that in Lincoln will be tough, especially on Senior day for the class of 2017. Still no official word on Tommy Armstrong's status, but I can't see him sitting out much (if any) of his final home game at Memorial Stadium. Onto my keys to the game!
Offensively the only thing Nebraska should focus on is the ground game. Sadly, that has not been effective at all the past few weeks due to poor play calling and poor blocking. They should have a little more success today as Maryland gives up an average of nearly 230 yards per game on the ground. Look for Newby to have a big game, but also look for the return of Devine Ozigbo. He's been battling an ankle injury the past few weeks, but will likely get some action come lunchtime. If Tommy plays, I don't expect him to run much, hopefully saving him for Iowa next week. If Ryker plays, look for simple, short routes to keep the chains moving. No matter what, if Nebraska does not establish a rushing attack, this game will be closer than necessary. Injuries have not helped this case, but Nebraska's offense was pegged to be one of the best in the BIG 10 this year. I really hope Danny Langsdorf starts to show it soon and use creative ways to get his play makers in space.
On the defensive side of the ball, pressure on the QB is my main key to victory. Maryland will be looking to run the ball, averaging 213 yards on the ground per game, but if the Blackshirts can keep up their dominating run defense, that will force the Terps into 3rd and passing situations. Senior QB Perry Hills is completing 66.7% of his passes, so keeping him under pressure will help the defense get off the field. Hills has been sacked 22 times already this season, so causing havoc in the backfield shouldn't be the most difficult task. Hills may be out due to injury, so Senior back-up Caleb Rowe could get the start. Look for the defensive line to have a big game with a number of Blackshirt linebackers dealing with injuries. Look for Nate Gerry and Kieron to provide a little more help than normal against the rushing attack with those injuries as well. Contain the run and get some pressure on Hills, that's my game plan for the Blackshirts!
I would like to say thank you and good luck to the Senior Class of 2017 for Football as well as my two good friends/co-workers Cassie Wilka and Bradyn Brownell who will be cheering at their last home game in Memorial Stadium! You're going to rock it ladies! As for the guys out on the field, it's been a lot of fun watching and getting to know a lot of you during my time here at UNL. You're all going to be missed around campus and by our football program next year, but for now, let's go undefeated at home and finish out the year strong! GO BIG RED! Huskers beat Maryland 30-13!
#CollegeFootballKnowItAll
Alex Fernando
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