Hey everyone, I hope you're all ready for a Saturday full of football! We've got some interesting games to watch today, so let's get to my picks, enjoy!
Baylor at #11 Oklahoma
The Bears are coming off two straight losses at the hands of Texas and TCU. Oklahoma is trying to close out their season with a Big XII championship, but their last three games are all against their biggest competitors in the conference. Baylor will probably need to win out if they're going to take home a Big XII title, but that won't be easy today in Norman. This should look like a typical Big XII match up with a whole lot of points and absolutely no defense. Baylor averages just under 40 points per game and 541 yards while Oklahoma averages 44 points per game and 558 yards. The Sooners also took place in one of the highest scoring, highest yardage producing games against Texas Tech a few weeks ago. However, Baylor will have to rely even more on QB Seth Russel because star RB Shock Linwood is suspended after shoving a Graduate Assistant on the sidelines of their last game. Without a consistent running game the Bears will be at a slight disadvantage, but again, Baylor can always score points and OU gives up a lot of them. My buddy Eric Bertrand has been picking upsets the last few weeks and has been spot on every time! He called the Penn State upset on the Buckeyes, he called the Texas upset on Baylor, and last week he called both TCU over the Bears and Arkansas over Florida! With all that on the line, he told me the upset of the week takes place in Norman with the Bears upsetting the Sooners on the road! I've learned not to argue with him based over the past couple weeks, so I'm giving this game all to Eric. He's calling for the Bears on the upset 56-51! Sic 'em!
Mississippi State at #1 Alabama
The Bulldogs are coming off a major upset win last week where they beat #4 Texas A&M, and the Tide are coming off probably the toughest game they've played this season against the Tigers of LSU. Coming off two very different games can cause these two teams to play in very different ways. Mississippi State is never a team to underestimate with Dan Mullins at the helm, and his team is playing with a lot of confidence after last week. The Tide could be a little sluggish coming out of Death Valley and starting up at 11 am, so they might not Roll to easy today. The key for this game is the Bulldogs defense. They haven't been the most impressive this season, but for a majority of the game, they shut down Texas A&M. If they can keep the game close with the Tide, star QB Nick Fitzgerald could cause Bama some headaches. Fitzgerald was the issue for the Aggies last weekend, and he has over 2500 total yards and 24 TDs on the season. If the Tide's defense has any weakness, it's a dual-threat QB. Sadly, I don't think the Bulldogs will pull it off, but I think it could be a little closer than the 30 point spread. I'm rooting for some chaos from the Bulldogs, but I've got the Tide Rolling 40-17.
#16 West Virginia at Texas
The Mountaineers were one of my favorites to swipe the Big XII title away from Oklahoma, but will need to win out if they want to make that happen. Playing in Austin is never easy, especially with the Longhorns starting to surge in the last part of the season. This one has potential for a lot of points, but I think it will be a little more tame. Texas's best chance to pull the upset is running the ball. Longhorn RB D'Onta Foreman ran for 341 yards and 3 TDs last week against the Red Raiders, so if they want to win, Foreman will be the main focus. West Virginia is only favored by a little bit, and their defense will have their hands full since Texas averages 37 points and 505 yards per game. Skylar Howard is hard to pick against, and you know he'll have the offense humming. This one is tough to pick, but I'm going to take the Mountaineers on the road. I think they're playing well right now, but don't forget about Texas! I wouldn't be surprised if the Longhorns pull this game out, but it's a close one either way. I'll go with West Virginia 34-30.
#10 Penn State at Indiana
The Nittany Lions find themselves back in the top 10, and they don't look to stop rolling. They've won 5 straight since their beat down at Michigan and statistically still have a chance to win the BIG 10 East with a little help. The last three games aren't the most intimidating, but a trip to Bloomington is not ideal to keep a winning streak going. The Hoosiers have hung around with every team they've played this season, and are looking to become Bowl eligible with a win today. Their best chance for the upset is holding down Penn State RB Saquon Barkely. This is much easier said than done, and I don't think the Hoosiers are quite ready for the upset yet. Look for a decently close game, but the Nittany Lions are red hot right now, so they'll play well today. Indiana will be a team to watch next year though, don't sleep on the Hoosiers for too long. Penn State wins it 30-24.
#9 Auburn at Georgia
"The Deep South's Oldest Rivalry". The game between Auburn and Georgia hardly ever disappoints. The Tigers have been rolling since starting the season 1-2, winning their last 6 games, most in fairly dominating style. They struggled a little bit last week with the tough defense of Vanderbilt, but were able to pull of the key victory at home. Georgia has yet to win a FBS game at home this year under new Head Coach Kirby Smart, let alone a SEC Conference game. But when teams come between the hedges, they better be ready. The Dawgs have lost a number of close games this year, mostly because their offense really struggles to put up points. They're averaging just under 24 points per game and only 383 yards of offense. However, even with their shortage of points, the Bulldogs are 7th in the nation in Time of Possession, averaging a little over 34 minutes per game. They will need to keep the ball as much as possible because Auburn knows how to score. Their offense averages just under 35 and nearly 500 yards per game. Look for Sean White to shine if he's able to play today, picking apart the Bulldogs defense. I think the Tigers have too much offense for the Dawgs to keep up with, so I'm sticking with Auburn. War Eagle beats the Dogs 42-24.
Pitt at #2 Clemson
The Panthers have fallen off the past few weeks, losing their last two games, but they are not a team the Tigers want to overlook. The Panthers love to keep games close, and I think the 21 point spread is a little steep. Look for Nate Peterman and James Conner to give the tough Tiger defense a few headaches today. However, I think DeShaun Watson is nearly unstoppable in November, and with the announcement that he and a couple other Tigers will be leaving early for the draft, he'll want to put on a show for his second-to-last home game. Look for a big RB duel between Conner and Gallman as well, this game will be a fun one to watch. I'll stick with the Tigers, but it's closer than the experts say! Tigers 35, Panthers 27.
Texas Tech at #13 Oklahoma State
The Pokes have been sneaking around the Big XII, and are in a prime position to win the conference. Today is Senior day down in Stillwater since the Cowboys will be on the road for their last two games, and this one will probably be a showstopper. Two dynamic offenses lead by two of the best passers in the nation. Pat Mahomes and Mason Rudolph square off leading the #1 and #6 passing attacks in the nation respectively. Texas Tech is not a team to sleep on, because they will put up as many points as it takes to keep things close. The only issue is defense, and that's where OSU has the edge. The Pokes defense can stop opponents on occasion, and that's about all it takes in the Big XII. I think defense decides this one with a key turnover, and I trust Mason Rudolph to finish out and win the game. Mahomes comes close yet again, but can't quite close it. Cowboys 48, Red Raiders 44.
#20 USC at #4 Washington
The Huskies finally broke into the College Football Playoff top 4! However, to keep their spot in the playoff picture, they will have fight off the surging USC Trojans. The boys from So. Cal have won their past 5 games, all in fairly convincing fashion. Since switching to Redshirt Freshman QB Sam Darnold, the entire Trojan offense has picked up. Darnold is completing a staggering 67.9% of his passes, and in his 5 starts, he has a 20:4 TD to INT ratio so far this year. The big key to this game is how unstoppable with the Huskies' offense be? Heisman candidate Jake Browning is leading the dominant Husky offense, and have rolled nearly everyone they've faced. Playing in Seattle will be a huge factor, but look for USC to try and manage the clock and keep the ball away from Browning and Co. The Trojan's run game has been impressive this season, and RB Ronald Jones could have a break out game. However, once Washington gets going, the play action pass using Myles Gaskin allows the Huskies to take a lot of deep shots. USC was burned quite a bit early in the year by the big plays, so look for that to be a key focus today. Huge QB battle between the two young-guns, but I'm going to stick with the experienced player. Jake is nearly unstoppable once he gets going, and I think the Husky defense will take over late in the game. The best chance USC has of winning is if Lee Corso picks them on College Gameday! Corso is an incredible 16-0 when picking the Trojans on Gameday, so the Huskies better hope he puts on the right head!! I'm sticking with Washington in a very fun game to watch. Huskies 38, Trojans 24.
Minnesota at #19 Nebraska (Battle for the $5 Bits of Broken Chair Trophy)
The Huskers are coming off their 2nd worst loss in school history, and they are still unsure of the playing status of their star QB Tommy Armstrong. All signs point to Armstrong being able to play, who has been going through concussion protocol throughout the week, and practiced with no contact late in the week. I'm still not sure if he'll play or not, and I honestly don't think I would put him out there, but everyone knows that our chances of winning without him are slim to none. Minnesota comes to Lincoln with their eyes on track to the BIG 10 Championship, but most importantly their eyes are on the Greatest Trophy in the history of the World... The $5 Bits of Broken Chair Trophy! This is an unofficial trophy created for the rivalry between Nebraska and Minnesota, and the trophy was created from a Twitter War between Nebraska fan Faux Pelini and Minnesota's Mascot Goldy Gopher. With this great piece of hardware on the line, you know both teams are going to give their all! Now onto my big keys of the game!
Defensively, the Blackshirts need to show up! I have no idea where the bus took them last week, but they did not come to Columbus, OH. Nebraska could do nothing to stop the Buckeyes last week, and now have to face a Gopher offense that averages over 33 points per game. Minnesota hasn't played the most impressive schedule this season, so their team may not be quite as solid as the 7-2 record indicates, but they are not a team to forget about. Senior QB Mitch Leidner leads the Gopher offense, and his mobility has caused Nebraska issues in the past. Look for Nebraska to focus on containing him and the Gopher run game tonight.
On the offensive side of the ball, we have two scenarios for Nebraska, Tommy plays or Ryker plays. To be honest, I don't see a lot of points with either scenario, and Eric and I both agreed when talking yesterday that this is going to be a close, low-scoring game.
If Ryker plays, anyone who has ever watched a football game (even some who haven't) will be able to figure out Nebraska's offensive plan. It's not very hard to figure out most games, but with Ryker, it's even more predictable with a couple runs up the middle for little to no gain and then Fyfe probably over or under throwing the ball to a double covered receiver on the edge. Nebraska's run game has disappeared over the past month, and they will need to find it quick if they want to finish out the season with W's.
If Tommy plays, Nebraska will still continue to work the run game, but I doubt Tommy will have many carries if any at all. The only difference is that the Huskers will try and drop back to pass the ball deep with Tommy in the game. Not a strategy that's overly effective, but Minnesota's secondary isn't the best, giving up an average of 233 passing yards per game, so Nebraska could hit some shots. Again, whoever starts at QB, the run game will be the main focus for Nebraska, which allows Minnesota to load the box and focus on the run game. Oddly enough, if the Huskers want to win, the passing attack will be important. With the Gophers only giving up 118 yards on the ground per game, and having the knowledge of Nebraska's limited offense, they will bring a lot of blitzes to contain the Huskers. Nebraska is going to have to make completions, especially on 3rd down to extend drives. The Blackshirts will need to get a break this week, and that all depends on the offense holding the ball.
As I stated earlier, I really don't expect a lot of points in this game, but I think coming home will help get the Huskers back on track. The Gophers final three games are at Nebraska, home against Northwestern, and then at Wisconsin, so running the table will be very difficult. Huskers win it at home today and keep their BIG 10 hopes alive. Nebraska brings home the $5 Bits of Broken Chair Trophy with a 23-13 victory!
Thanks for reading and GO BIG RED!
#CollegeFootballKnowItAll
Alex Fernando
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