Hello and welcome to Week 6 of College Football! I am back from my travels which means I'm back with predictions for all the big games to watch and a BRAND NEW segment of the blog, look for the ($) next to certain games. You'll have to read on to find out what the surprise is, but that shouldn't be a problem with all the CFB information you'll get in this post as well. I've got all the big games of the weekend laid out for you and have it ready a day early as the Huskers play tonight. Read on and enjoy!
Week 4 Record: 15 - 3
Overall Record: 64 - 15
Week 6 Predictions:
#12 Oklahoma vs #3 Texas (Red River Rivalry)
The Sooners and Longhorns face off for the final time in the Red River Rivalry as members of the Big XII, next time they place this game it will be as members of the SEC. Both teams have had hot starts to the season, but Texas is certainly the focal point of this game. Since beating Alabama on the road they have dominated opponents over the month of September and are looking to put a stranglehold on the Big XII. Quarterback Quinn Ewers has been sensational with over 1,350 yards passing to go along with 10 TDs and 1 pick. Opposing defenses have really struggled to slow down the Longhorn offense, and Sophomore Running Back Johnathan Brooks is a big part of that. He averages just shy of 7 yards per carry and the Sooners have yet to give a rushing touchdown this season, so what will give? Offensively, Oklahoma runs through QB Dillion Gabriel and an air raid offense that averages over 350 yards passing per game. This could be one of the best games we've seen from this rivalry, but I'm giving the nod to Texas. They may actually be back with how their team is playing in 2023. Longhorns 37, Sooners 31.
Maryland at #4 Ohio State
Two unbeaten teams from the BIG 10 East square off in the Horseshoe as we look to see who is for real and who is not. It's honestly just a test for Maryland as Ohio State is a heavy favorite over the terrapins. Ohio State hasn't been overly impressive with their wins this season, but their late game comeback against the Irish on the road was a big boost to their profile. They've had a week to rest and will be fresh for this one. Maryland is a mystery team to most. They are not usually in the mix of the top tier BIG 10 teams, but have impressive wins this season as their lowest scoring output was 31 points against Michigan State. The offense runs through Senior QB Taulia Tagovailoa, but keep your eye on Sophomore RB Roman Hemby. He averages nearly 5 yards per carry and has balanced the once pass heavy Maryland offense. Nonetheless, winning in the Horseshoe is really something only Ohio State does, this feels like one of those break out games for the Buckeyes, but we'll see if Maryland is legit by the point spread a the end. Brutus beats the Terrapin 35-17.
#23 LSU at #21 Missouri
One of the possible SEC Tigers vs SEC Tigers games takes place this weekend as LSU travels to Mizzou. The Bayou Bengals are coming off a 55-49 loss in the final minutes against rival Ole Miss last week and were unable to score despite an impressive last drive into the red-zone as time ticked down. The defense certainly faulted against the Rebels' high-octane offense as you often win most games you score 49 points in, but regardless I'm sure Jayden Daniels and the offense will look to put up big numbers again. As for Mizzou, they're undefeated but nothing has been particularly interesting about their season thus far. The game-winning field goal against former Big XII rival K-State was impressive but this will be their first true test on that undefeated record this season. Junior QB Brady Cook has yet to throw a pick this season, but I imagine LSU will dial up some pressure and coverage packages to make life hard. I think this is a bit of a "get right" game for LSU and they win the Tiger battle 35-21.
#10 Notre Dame at #25 Louisville
The Irish were able to close out the game at Duke last week with a strong defensive stand, somewhat easing the pain of the Ohio State loss from the week before. The go on the road again to square off against Louisville and will have to shut down the deadly passing attack of the Cardinals if they want to win. Ex-Boilermaker Jack Plummer followed Jeff Brohm to his new school and hasn't missed a beat with his head coach. The Senior already has over 1,400 yards passing with 11 TDs, but his 6 picks are one of the higher totals in the nation. Notre Dame already has 6 picks of their own this season, so ball security is key in this one. On the other side, Sam Hartman has been solid as usual, but a big performance in this game could help boost his Heisman stock. The Irish need to start getting some statement wins to turn heads in the College Football Playoff Committee, and I think this is one where they ball out. Notre Dame 37, Louisville 21.
#13 Washington State at UCLA ($)
The Coogs hit the road to take on the Bruins in the Rose Bowl as the PAC-12 race starts to heat up. Wazzu has been one of the unique stories of College Football this season, as they are looking to go 5-0 for the first time since 2015 where they started 6-0. The program has not been involved in any conference realignment and are sitting in the remaining "PAC 2 or 2-Pac" with Oregon State, who they beat a couple weeks ago. Junior QB Cameron Ward has been sensational and has nearly 1,400 yards passing with 13 TDs and no picks to go along with his 3 rushing TDs. The air-raid attack has Wazzu ranked 2nd in the nation in passing offense, just behind their arch rival, the Huskies from Seattle. They'll be up against the nation's 24th ranked pass defense with the Bruins who already have 6 picks on the season. They held Utah to just 14 points last week and would love nothing more than to upset a ranked team at home. Offensively Chip Kelly's squad has struggled to get things moving this year. Usually a high-powered offense, they're averaging a touchdown less than last season. This game has potential for some points, but I really like how Wazzu is playing this season and coming off a BYE should be very helpful for a road game. Cameron Ward show's the nation why he's on the Heisman watch list and the COOGS win 27-21.
#11 Alabama at Texas A&M
The Crimson Tide travel to College Station, TX in hopes of revenge from 2021 where the Aggies walked it off with a field goal. Outside of their loss to Texas, Bama has looked fairly similar to the Bama of old, holding SEC foes at arms length throughout the game. However, the offensive production has dropped them from the 11th ranked total offense in 2022 to the 88th ranked total offense in 2023. Jalen Milroe is still finding his footing as QB1 and the lack of a dynamic run game has really stunted this team. The Aggies have a perfect opportunity for Jimbo to put them back in the national spotlight with this game. Back-to-back divisional wins has A&M quickly forgetting about their opening week loss to Miami, but losing Sophomore QB Connor Weigman for the season to a foot injury is certainly not ideal. Look for the run game with Sophomore RB Le'Von Moss to be a bigger factor moving forward, especially if he can keep up the 6 yard per carry average he's currently posting. It's hard to beat Bama though and the more time Milroe has in the game the more things will click for that offense. Saban always gets revenge and the Tide Roll in College Station 30-21.
Syracuse at #14 North Carolina
The Orange travel to Chapel Hill as the Tar Heels look to keep pace in the ACC. Syracuse suffered their first loss last weekend getting thumped by Clemson, so they're in need of a bounce back game. The QB battle will be a fun one as Garrett Shrader and Drake Maye look to light up the scoreboard. The Tar Heels average just under 36 points per game while Syracuse is just above them with 38. My big key factor is the running backs for this game. Both have very similar numbers on the season but provide a great change of pace for the pass heavy offenses. I like North Carolina to take this one at home 42-34.
Purdue at Iowa
Thanks to a Cooper DeJean 70-yard punt return, the Hawkeyes fended off Michigan State in a game that featured very little offense. The Hawkeyes have lost transfer QB Cade MacNamara for the season so all eyes are on back-up Deacon Hill to see if he can help "Save Ferentz" with OC Brian Ferentz needing to average 25 points per game to keep his job. The Boilermakers are starting to find their rhythm with Hudson Card at QB and stomped Illinois 44-19 last week. This is the BIG 10 West (with Iowa), so expect a lot of punts and a low scoring output. As usual, I so badly want to go BoilerUp and watch them beat Iowa, but the Hawkeyes just have a way of making opponents do stupid things at stupid times. Hawkeyes at home 18-10.
UCF at Kansas ($)
The Golden Knights have had a rough welcome to the Big XII with back-to-back losses against K-State and Baylor. They allowed the Bears to come back late in that game and had struggles closing it out. Now they travel to Lawrence where they're favored over the Jayhawks who were demolished by Texas last week. They were without star QB Jalyon Daniels and looks like they may be without him again this week. Back-up QB Jason Bean has plenty of experience, starting multiple games both last year and this year. KU hasn't been as spicy as last year, but big wins over Illinois and BYU at home have shown a lot from this team. They play very well at home and UCF has to wait another week before tasting victory in the Big XII. Rock Chalk as KU beats UCF 33-28.
Colorado at Arizona State ($)
The Buffaloes and Deion had a rough couple weeks with Oregon and USC putting up 42 and 48 points respectively. The offense came back to life with 41 points in a near comeback against the Trojans last week, but some of the hype around this team has died down. This is the perfect time for CU to strike and get back into the spotlight. QB Shedeur Sanders has been no less than stellar this season, throwing for nearly 1,800 yards with 15 TDs and just 2 picks. He has weapons all over the field and the ASU defense has done little to stop opponents this season. The Sun Devils have yet to beat an FBS opponent in 2023 and with the 126th ranked scoring offense they could struggle to keep pace in this game. Buffs win big on the road 45-21.
#24 Fresno State at Wyoming
A very under the radar game in the Mountain West is set for primetime on Saturday night. Fresno State and Wyoming square off in Laramie for a key conference matchup. The Cowboys lone loss is to Texas, but they did dance with the Longhorns for a while before getting blown out late in the game. As usual, the Bulldogs just show up to the next game on their schedule and leave with a W while providing a myriad of headaches for opposing coaches. The Bulldogs rank 14th in total defense, giving up just 282 yards per game on average. The player to watch in this game is Junior Running Back Harrison Waylee for the Cowboys. Through just 3 games he's rushed for 457 yards and has a 8.6 yard per carry. He could help the Cowboys stay on the field in key third down conversions, but in the 4th quarter I'm looking for Fresno State to come up with a big stop. Tight one to the end but the Bulldogs beat the Cowboys on the road in a big Mountain West game 24-21.
Nebraska at Illinois
The Huskers travel to Champagne to play the Illini for some BIG 10 West Friday Night Lights. I will be the first to eat my words as I thought Illinois would be well on their way to steamrolling the BIG 10 West this season, but with all 3 losses coming by at least 3 scores and the 44-19 whomping from Purdue last week the team is not what I thought they would be. Illini QB Luke Altmyer has thrown 7 picks this season and the O-line has given up 21 sacks so far this season, so the Blackshirts have a golden opportunity to cause havoc on defense. With so many questions on offense for the Huskers, Nebraska needs to once again rely on the defensive side of the ball. Unfortunately they will be without star Linebacker Luke Reimer and Defensive Back DeShon Singleton. Most sources are expecting Heinrich Haarberg to start again at QB but Jeff Sims could make an appearance depending on gameplay. Anthony Grant will get the bulk of carries at Running Back, but the Huskers will need to find some help in that room. The most important key to this game for the Huskers is to establish that run game early. Illinois ranks 111th in the nation against the run and Nebraska would love to get that back on track after a poor performance against Michigan. At the beginning of the season this game was one of my losses for the Huskers, but it has shifted into the maybe category over recent weeks. I think there is a lot of opportunity here for Matt Rhule to get a BIG 10 win on the road and mix Nebraska into this divisional race. I expect a classic BIG 10 West battle where the first team to 20+ wins the game. I'll take my Huskers behind a big defensive performance with multiple sacks and turnovers. Nebraska wins by leaning on the Blackshirts 23-17. GO BIG RED!
Quick Hit Predictions:
Kansas State at Oklahoma State - Both teams are coming off a restful BYE week as they get set for their Big XII gauntlet. The Pokes have been a disaster this year, scoring no more than 27 point in any game yet this year. Typically one of the conference's best offenses, they will host a Wildcat defense giving up just 18.5 points per game. K-State wins on the road 28-14.
Wake Forest at Clemson - The Tigers bounced back from their overtime loss to Florida State with a 31-14 smashing of the Orange while the Demon Deacons had an extra week to sit on their loss to Georgia Tech. An extra week to prepare is always nice, but the Clemson defense awaits in Death Valley. Tigers win with few issues at home 31-10.
#2 Michigan at Minnesota (Battle for the Little Brown Jug) - The Wolverines head to Minneapolis for back-to-back BIG 10 away games, but should have few concerns in this one. Having watched the Gophers in person against my Huskers I fear (actually hope) this could be worse than last week. Wolverines 52-10.
Arkansas at #16 Ole Miss - The Razorbacks will look to upset the Rebels and snap their 3-game losing streak. Defense has been an issue for the Hogs this year though, and Ole Miss has the 8th ranked offense in the nation. Hotty Toddy for the Land Sharks as they win 34-21 at home.
Texas Tech at Baylor - A Big XII Rivalry takes place in Waco as the Red Raiders and Bears look to get their seasons back on track. The Bears have slid backward since their 2021 season which finished with a 12-2 record. Dave Aranda could use a big win but I really like what Joey Maguire is doing with the Red Raiders. It's close and going to start clicking. Wreck 'Em as Tech takes it in a shootout 37-35.
The Perfect Parlay:
My new segment puts my money where my mouth is! As the College Football KnowItAll I thought it would be interesting to start backing up some of my predictions with a weekly wager. I put some money down at the casino and formed the "Perfect Parlay" for this week in College Football. You are more than welcome to utilize my CFB insights for your gambling needs, but my only disclaimer is that I am NOT responsible for any financial losses you may incur (only the winnings). This week's parlay is listed below along with my key reasons on why it will be a success. If you have other College Football bets in mind or want me to weigh in some opinions on your own picks please comment on the post!
1. Washington State over UCLA - Moneyline
- I like this pick because Cameron Ward has been playing Heisman-caliber football and this team is very much ignored in the PAC-12 due to the success of USC, Oregon and Washington. UCLA's offense has been sluggish in the early parts of the season and Wazzu comes in rested from the BYE week.
2. Kansas over UCF - Moneyline
- The Jayhawks are actually the underdog at home against the Knights in this game so not only can this pick get you a little more winnings, but it's also right where you want KU to be. They just got SMASHED by Texas and although UCF is dying for their first Big XII victory, Kansas will be ready to perform big at home. They've scored 30+ points in every game other than Texas and even with Jaylon Daniels this offense has a lot of firepower. UCF has given up 79 points in the past 2 games.
3. Colorado over Arizona State - (-4) spread
- Vegas is giving the Buffs just 4 points over the 90th ranked scoring defense in the nation? Too easy of a pick in my opinion. The Buffs have been sensational on offense outside of the Oregon game and you know they're looking for a big win with 2 weeks of anger built up. The Sun Devils will get some shots on the Buffs defense, but there's no way they keep pace in this game. Take Colorado for the points as Shedeur balls out.
Thank you for reading my Gameday predictions along with my Perfect Parlay for Week 6! Enjoy your College Football Weekend and GO BIG RED!
#CFBKnowItAll
Alex Fernando
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