Welcome to Week 7 Football fans, and for the Huskers we get to enjoy the BYE week! I apologize I didn't get a reflection post out about the Huskers' win over Illinois, but I'll be including some information on that during my mid-season reflection post after this weekend. Regardless of the Huskers having the week off, there's still a ton of great games to watch today, so I've got a full slate for you today. Check out all my picks below and enjoy your College Football Saturday!
Week 6 Record: 12 - 5
Overall Record: 75 - 20
Iowa at Wisconsin (Battle for the Heartland Trophy) ($)
A bronze cow is up for grabs as the Hawkeyes and Badgers meet up in Mad-town. This looks like one of the most BIG 10 West matchups you could imagine as both offenses have struggled this season, especially Iowa. They're now led by back-up QB Deacon Hill, who failed to complete a pass to ANY Hawkeye receiver last week against Purdue. Luckily for them they have the 16th best scoring defense in the nation, and are 5-0 this season when they score at least 1 point. Wisconsin has been somewhat quiet in Luke Fickell's first season, but they've had a very balanced offense averaging over 200 yards both passing and rushing. They're better built for the run with star RB Braelon Allen averaging 6.5 yards per carry. Their offense needs to run through him. Defensively they shouldn't have many issues because the Hawkeyes are unbelievably bad and there's a good chance for turnovers. As always, I follow my rule with BIG 10 West games, which is that the first team to 20 wins the game. They might not even make it to 20, but I'll take the Badgers 17-9.
Texas A&M at #19 Tennessee
The Aggies fought hard at home against Alabama last week but fell short. Now they turn around and travel to Rocky Top to take on a Vols team that is looking for a statement win. They've got an SEC gauntlet coming up for their schedule with back-to-back road trips to Bama and Kentucky, so this home game is an important one for momentum. Joe Milton III has been solid this season, throwing for more than 1,100 yards with 9 TDs and 3 picks, but the secret to their offense is Junior RB Jaylen Wright who is averaging 7.1 yards per carry. I think they need to feed him today, despite the Aggies tough run defense. He can help bring balance to the offense and take pressure off Milton. A&M ranks 10th in the nation in rush defense, giving up just 84 yards per game on the ground. They also lead the nation in sacks, so Milton will be under pressure a lot. Unfortunately (much like Nebraska) their offense doesn't help their defense very much. The Aggies are -3 in turnover margin and that will be the difference today. Close one in Rocky Top, but turnovers and the Jaylen Wright run game help the Vols win 26-23 at home.
#23 Kansas at Oklahoma State ($)
The Jayhawks were DOMINANT last week over UCF, even without Jalon Daniels, winning 51-22 over the Golden Knights. Oklahoma State finally woke up and beat K-State 29-21 at home. They've been very inconsistent though, especially at the QB position. Kansas has been very consistent despite their QB injuries. Jason Bean is likely to start again, but bring lots of experience and has a 4:0 TD to INT ratio so far this season. The run game will be a focal point in this one as KU rushed for a step under 400 yards in the game, and Oklahoma State gave up 220 to K-State. Despite their loss to Texas this Jayhawk team is legit, so don't sleep on them. Rock Chalk as Kansas wins convincingly on the road over the Pokes 34-20.
BYU at TCU ($)
Sticking in the Big XII, the Cougars take their first trip to the Lone Star State as conference members to take on the Horned Frogs. We all know by now this is NOT the same TCU squad from last year, but after back-to-back tough losses, they'll be looking to right the ship at home. A big issue with this plan is QB Chandler Morris being injured for the next few weeks and is expected to miss multiple games. The Frogs have struggled on offense this season and Morris' injury only adds to that stress. BYU plays very fast on defense as well, forcing lots of turnovers with 9 on the season leading to a +4 margin. Junior RB Emani Bailey has nearly 700 yards on the ground for the Frogs, so look for him to be a major factor in this game, but I like the Cougars in a sneaky upset. Kedon Slovis at QB leads a very good passing attack and the Horned Frogs were torched for nearly 300 by West Virginia a couple weeks ago. BYU beats TCU 37-31.
#14 Louisville at Pittsburgh ($)
The Cardinals might be the Cinderella team of 2023 as they're 6-0 in Jeff Brohm's first season back home and just beat Notre Dame by two scores. Now they have a bit of a trap game against 4-loss Pitt before heading into the BYE week. This is the perfect spot for the Panthers to pounce on a potential hangover from Louisville and get a big upset. I don't think the Cardinals are a hangover team though, and they're looking to put up points and be one of those top ACC teams. Turnovers will again be a big focus as the Cardinals are +6 and the Panthers are -4. Louisville romps them 38-17.
Arizona at #19 Washington State
The Coogs let me down in my bet last week falling to UCLA, as they could not get any offense going against the Bruins defense. There was nothing but offense with Arizona and USC last week as the Wildcats took the Trojans to to triple overtime in a 43-41 loss. When you look back at the Wildcats' schedule you might be surprised to learn they lost by just a touchdown to Washington and a touchdown in overtime to Mississippi State on the road. Arizona might be a dangerous team and Wazzu can't just expect an easy victory back home. The players to watch in this one are Arizona WR Tetaiora McMillan and Wazzu QB Cameron Ward. Ward we know about, he threw his first 2 picks of the season last week at UCLA, but has over 1,500 yards passing and 14 TDs. McMillan is a dangerous threat to the Wazzu defense as he has 524 receiving yards and 5 TDs so far this season. He's the favorite target for the Wildcats, and at 6'5 210 you can see why when he walks into the building. Sizing up a receiver that big is difficult for any defense, so look for him to be a problem. Often times when I pick Wazzu they let me down, so we're going to take the upset this week. Arizona turns some heads with a 34-28 victory! #BearDown
Kansas State at Texas Tech
The Wildcats are needing a bounce back after a surprising loss to the Pokes in Stillwater last week, but they have a tough road test again down in Lubbock. The Red Raiders are starting to hit their stride after an up and down start to the season, just like I thought they would! This is a big test for them though as the Wildcats are always a tough defense, giving up just 20.6 points per game so far this season. Texas Tech has found their offense the last two games, scoring 49 and 39 in the last two weeks. If this game becomes a track meet, K-State doesn't have the firepower to keep pace. Slowing this game to a slug fest is the goal if the Wildcats want to win. They racked up 220 yards on the Pokes last week, so look for them to pound the rock again. I picked the Red Raiders to be a dark horse in the Big XII this year, and that starts with a victory here at home against the reigning champs. Wreck 'Em as the Red Raiders win a good one at home 36-24 behind a big time offensive attack.
Wyoming at Air Force
The Falcons of our US Military are unbeaten and host Mountain West rival Wyoming in a key game to determine the top spot in the conference. There's still a lot of football games to be played, but this matchup has a lot of weight to it. The Cowboys had an impressive win against Fresno State at home last week, especially on the defensive side of the ball. The slammed the door on the Bulldogs, holding them to 38 yards rushing. That will be the battle to watch in this game, because Air Force averages 329 yards per game rushing. Wyoming has a rushing attack of their own, led by Junior Harrison Waylee, who averages 7.2 yards per carry. This will likely be the closest game Air Force has played all season, so being able to hold Wyoming at arm's length will be a new challenge. I like the Falcons at home in a close one, but this will be a good game to watch if you have time to check in on it! Air Force 28, Wyoming 23.
#25 Miami at #12 North Carolina
By now we've all heard/seen the unfathomable way Miami loss their game to Georgia Tech last week. After refusing to take a knee the 'Canes fumbled allowing Georgia Tech to win in the final second when the game was all but over. Miami has a chance to bounce back on the road against North Carolina in a match-up that has been decided by just 3 points in 3 of the last 4 meetings. Drake Maye and the Tar Heels are ramping up their offense, scoring 41 and 40 in the last two weeks. There's not many teams that score with the efficiency UNC does, as they post an 88% red zone conversion rate. Miami's defense is tough though, and they are coming in with a mission to put pressure on Maye all game long. I can't trust a team with poor coaching decisions though, so I'll take the Heels 34-31.
#18 UCLA at #15 Oregon State
The Bruins are ranked after their big defensive win against Wazzu last week, but now they travel to Corvallis to take on the Beavers. Oregon State's only loss is a 3-point road defeat to Wazzu, but they are arguably the most dangerous 1-loss team in the PAC-12. UCLA is trying to take over that title, but they need to stop big DJ Uiagalelei and the Beaver rushing attack. Johnathan Smith's team averages over 200 per game on the ground and the Bruins give under 65 rush yards per game. Big DJ is my key factor though, because he's been extremely efficient, throwing for 13 TDs and 4 picks. This will be a grind it out game, but I like the Beavers at home. Oregon State wins 27-23.
#10 USC at #21 Notre Dame (Battle for the Jeweled Shillelagh) ($)
The Trojans and Irish renew their rivalry as USC travels to South Bend. Notre Dame has their 4th straight prime time kickoff against an undefeated ranked opponent. They gave up a last minute drive to Ohio State, were able to hold off Duke but fell hard against the Cardinals of Louisville. Now they host the #1 scoring offense in the nation led by the 2022 Heisman winner and arguably the best player in the nation. Caleb Williams accounts for 62% of the Trojan offensive attack, and practically carried them on his own to a triple overtime victory against Arizona last week. Unfortunately he doesn't have much help from his defense as they 80th ranked scoring defense in the nation. Notre Dame's defense ranks 15th, so their battle against Caleb Williams will be fun to watch. Offensively the Irish need to run. Sam Hartman needs helps making the big plays, especially from his wideouts. He's experienced and will clean up the turnovers, but I like USC in this one. Too much offense and too much Caleb Williams. The Jeweled Shillelagh goes to LA. Trojans 36, Irish 28.
#8 Oregon at #7 Washington
The best game of the day will take place in Seattle as Oregon takes on rival Washington for the last time (regular season) as PAC-12 foes. Both teams will be joining my Huskers in the BIG 10 next season and thankfully both their QBs will be in the NFL when Nebraska faces them next. Michael Penix Jr. and Bo Nix have been two of my favorite QBs in college football over the last few years and I've followed them both closely since they were at Indiana and Auburn respectively. Both of them are in fantastic offensive systems and this is probably one of the toughest picks I've ever had to make in my 8 years of writing this blog. This game is always one of the best to watch, as 3 of the last 4 have been decided by 4 points or less. Bo Nix has the highest completion percentage in the nation with 80.4% and Michael Penix Jr. lead the nation with 399.8 yards per game through the air. Oregon's defense is one of the best they've ever had, but Washington's receiver corps is nothing to mess with. This could be a shoot out because the Washington defense has struggled to slow teams down and Bo Nix is a very smart runner out of the pocket. Home field advantage with the crowd noise will be a factor as they will look to get the Ducks' offense off script. I can't wait to see how this one goes, but I'll take the Huskies at home over the Ducks in a fantastic 31-30 victory!
Quick Hit Predictions:
#3 Ohio State at Purdue - This is the time of year we hear about the Spooky Train and they love nothing more than upsetting a highly ranked Buckeye squad. The Buckeyes are beat up with a lot of injuries as well, missing their top two running backs. Ohio State starts slow, but I don't think Purdue has enough right now to pull the upset. Ohio State 30, Purdue 17.
NC State at #17 Duke - The Blue Devils will be without star QB Riley Leonard, but are coming off a BYE week following their loss at home to Notre Dame. NC State's defense is always tough, but I think Duke makes some big plays to win this game. Blue Devils 30, Wolfpack 21.
Florida at South Carolina - The Spurrier Bowl features two SEC East teams who are all kind of forgotten about. I really don't know what to expect here but I say the Gators chomp them 33-28.
Auburn at #22 LSU - The SEC West Tigers square off in Death Valley as Auburn takes on LSU. The LSU defense has not been great, so there are points on the table for Auburn. However, they can't stop Jaylen Daniels. LSU wins 37-24.
Syracuse at #4 Florida State - After back-to-back losses the Orange are looking to play spoiler against the 'Noles. Florida State has been very consistent this year, and it all starts with Jordan Travis at QB. He's going to have another big day and the Tomahawk Chop continues as FSU wins 38-21.
Georgia Southern at James Madison - The Dukes are undefeated (again) yet still unable to go to a bowl game because of the NCAA's annoying rule of a 2 year waiting period for new D-1 Teams. Despite that they have a big match up against Clay Helton's high-flying Eagles. GSU averages just under 340 yards passing per game, but JMU doesn't lose football games. Dukes win 36-31.
Cal at #16 Utah - The Golden Bears would love nothing more than to knock off the reigning PAC-12 Champs, but even with out Cam Rising the Utes are too tough at home. Utah 27-10.
The Perfect Parlay:
1. Kansas -3 over Oklahoma State
- The Jayhawks just laid 50+ last week without Jalon Daniels and Oklahoma State's inconsistency leads to a perfect opportunity to take the points on this one. Rock Chalk and they win by more than 3.
2. Louisville -7.5 over Pitt
- The Cardinals are red hot and Pitt has lost 4 in a row BAD. This is a trap game but Jeff Brohm has his team ready to put up points. They put up 33 on Notre Dame last week and will go bigger here, take the points!
3. Iowa vs Wisconsin O/U 34
- There's only 4 games in betting CFB history that had a 34 point over/under mark, and Iowa has been part of 3 of them. Classic BIG 10 West matchup and there's no way these teams reach 34. I've got the under.
4. BYU at TCU
- As mentioned above the Frogs are without Chandler Morris for a few weeks and their team does not have the firepower of last year. The Cougars have a fast defense and they pull the upset on the road.
5. USC at Notre Dame
- This is a dicey pick because Notre Dame always bounces back well from a loss, but the Trojan Offense and Caleb Williams are too much to handle for the Irish. Trojans win in front of Touchdown Jesus for the first time since 2011.
Thank you for reading my Week 7 Predictions and enjoy your College Football Predictions!
#CFBKnowItAll
Alex Fernando
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