Happy Saturday Football Fans! We're into week 8 of the College Football season and are set for the back half of the year when conference games get heavy and the matchups mean more. The Huskers are set to run their back half of the season following their BYE week hosting Northwestern at home and we've got a lot of other big games to watch today as well. This post will give a brief reflection of the Huskers at the mid-way point of the season, and my keys to work on in the second half along with all my Week 8 Predictions and my Perfect Parlay of the week. Clearly my CFB knowledge has not translated over to the sports betting world as of yet, but we're starting to get some things figured out. Enjoy the games this weekend and GO BIG RED!
Through six games the Huskers are sitting at 3-3 with a wide open BIG 10 West ahead of them. There are certainly winnable games left on the schedule, but Nebraska still has a ways to go before we can trust this team to perform at a high level consistently. In the last decade, the Huskers have never finished better than .500 after the BYE week, so there's a lot to be said about finishing what you've started. Here are 3 things we have learned from the first half of the season and 3 things to watch for in the second half.
What we have learned:
1. Heinrich Haarberg is QB1, but this offense still needs a lot of help. Injuries to playmakers have made it difficult to move the ball consistently and find big plays. The Huskers rank 113th in the nation in plays of 10+ yards.
2. The Blackshirts are stout and deserve a lot of credit for the team's success. Defenses often click sooner than the offense when learning a new system, and DC Tony White certainly has this squad on the same page. The Huskers rank 24th in the nation in total defense and give up an average of just 21 points per game.
3. Poor decision-making and a lack of discipline continue to be a major issue on this team. From questionable play-calling/clock management to the Huskers ranking 70th in the nation for penalties with an average of 53.3 yards per game.
What we need to look for:
1. Better play-calling. With a new system and so many injuries (forcing coaches to play younger players), I can understand why Satterfield may not open up the entire playbook. However, situational play-calling has been extremely questionable throughout the season and I'd really like to see that change. Multiple times with a lead late in the game Nebraska opts to throw multiple pass plays and avoid running down the clock. This is a young offense with a not very good offensive line, keep it manageable.
2. Someone needs to be a playmaker. Malachi Coleman has been named a starter for this week, Anthony Grant has a wide open backfield to takeover in, Thomas Fidone should be a major threat in the passing game. Look for someone in this offense to step up and make big plays for the Huskers in the back half of the season, the team needs it bad.
3. Blackshirts set it up, but the offense needs to finish. The Husker Defense will certain keep the team within striking distance of every game remaining on the schedule, but finishing drives and scoring points is the only way Nebraska finds a bowl this season. The Huskers rank 2nd to last in the nation in Red Zone Conversions, this stat needs to change.
Week 7 Record: 14 - 5
Overall Record: 89 - 25
#7 Penn State at #3 Ohio State
We start off this week's picks with one of the most anticipated matchups of the year, Penn State at Ohio State. The BIG 10 East could very well wind up with Penn State, Ohio State and Michigan all beating each other. However, I think this game gives a big indication to us on who will be taking control of the West. Ohio State didn't hold back against Purdue last week, despite the injuries to their playmakers on offense. Penn State had a nice tune up game beating UMass 63-0. This game will be a major challenge for each offense as their young QBs take on two of the best defenses in the nation. Drew Allar has yet to throw an interception this season for the Nittany Lions but Kyle McCord and the Buckeyes have one of the best talents in the nation at Wide Receiver with Marvin Harrison Jr. He's got 5 TDs to go with his 604 receiving yards, so Penn State's secondary will be tested quickly. Their pass rush is what makes the difference in this game though, as they rank 3rd in the nation, averaging 4.5 sacks per game. Putting heavy pressure on Kyle McCord will pay off as I think the Nittany Lions win this one on the road 30-28.
#22 Air Force at Navy
The Falcons are 6-0 and top dogs of the Mountain West. However, none of that matters when you play your rivals. The Midshipmen would love nothing more than to start reclaiming their crown as the top Military Academy in Football. They've struggled the last few years, but there's always an extra boost in a battle like this. Both teams are going to come out with heavy rushing attacks, looking to control the clock and pound the rock. It's going to be chilly, rainy weather as well, so I wouldn't expect a lot of big plays. Air Force should take care of this one and I've got the Falcons on the road 24-14.
Washington State at #9 Oregon
The Ducks are coming off a heartbreaking loss to Washington on the road after a missed field goal failed to push the game into overtime. Wazzu is coming off back to back losses after being ranked as high as #13, and last week's loss was a throttling by Arizona 44-6. This game has potential for some points if Cameron Ward and the Cougars can find their offense again. No matter what though, this game is all about the Ducks. They played a fantastic game in Seattle and are likely itching to get back on the field again. I don't think they'll be any hangover in this one. Bo Nix puts up big numbers and the Oregon defense suffocates Cameron Ward and the Cougars for a 40-17 victory at home.
#17 Tennessee at #11 Alabama
This game was an absolute THRILLER last season as the Vols upset the Tide and tore down the goal posts at Rocky Top. Everyone is waiting for Tennessee to have a breakout game this season as their offense has not been quite as dynamic, ranking in the 30s for both Total Offense and Scoring compared to their first place finish a year ago. Joe Milton III has a cannon for an arm but chemistry with the receiver corps hasn't quite been there yet. Jalen Milroe for Bama is starting to get in his groove, throwing for nearly 1,400 yards with 11 TDs. However, he's been sacked 26 times already this year, so pressure in the pocket is a big area of concern for Alabama in this game. Tennessee ranks 6th in the nation in sacks, so this will be the stat to watch. This one could get close at the end as Bama has struggled to hold teams completely down, but they still with an arm's length victory of 30-20. Roll Tide
South Carolina at #20 Missouri
The Gamecocks have had a tough few weeks, but none more frustrating than giving up two late touchdowns to the Gators and ultimately the victory last week. Missouri has quietly become a sneaky team to watch in the SEC East. Their offense has been extremely efficient with Brady Cook at QB but most importantly WR Luther Burden III has been a menace to opposing secondaries. The Sophomore standout has 808 yards with 5 TDs on the year. South Carolina gives up an average of 321 yards per game though the air, so expect Burden to have a day. Tigers get to 7-1 at home 34-20.
Minnesota at #24 Iowa (Battle for the Floyd of Rosedale) ($)
We've got a Bronze Pig up for grabs as the Hawkeyes host the Gophers in a game where you should expect the ball to be kicked more than it's thrown to a receiver. The Hawkeyes managed 37 pass yards in their game against Wisconsin and actually completed a pass to a receiver unlike their game against Purdue. The Gophers are looking for a rebound game after losing 3 of their last 4 and wanting to get back into the BIG 10 West race. Their offense hasn't been much better than the Hawkeyes, but Freshman RB Darius Taylor has been a bright spot with nearly 550 yards, 4 TDs and a 6.1 yard per carry average. He'll be up against the equivalent of a brick wall with Iowa's defense though. The Hawkeyes rank 10th in scoring defense, giving up just 14.9 points per game. This is in large part due to their fantastic punting game, which averages more yards than their offense and consistently flips the field to put opposing teams in bad field position. Punting wins games and (unfortunately) it will win the game again for Iowa, along with a couple of dumb 4th quarter mistakes by the Gophers. Iowa 13, Minnesota 7.
Wisconsin at Illinois ($)
Another BIG 10 West Battle where you could see a baseball score heading into the second half. Wisconsin is coming off a very disappointing loss to Iowa at home where they also lost Tanner Moredecai to a hand injury. Illinois bounced back from their loss to my Huskers as they surprised everyone with a walk-off field goal win on the road in Maryland. The Bret Bielema Bowl should follow my rules for BIG 10 West Football which means the first team to 20 wins the game. Wisconsin will be back to running the ball more and I still don't trust Illinois despite their performance last week. Badgers 23, Illini 13.
Oklahoma State at West Virginia
Are the Pokes and the Mountaineers the best challengers to Oklahoma in the Big XII? These two teams have gotten hot recently and despite two weeks of picking against the Cowboys they've proven me wrong. Both teams have developed strong run games behind their Sophomore Running Backs Ollie Gordon II (Oklahoma State) and CJ Donaldson Jr. (WVU). Both backs are tough to bring down with Gordon measuring in at 6'1 211 and Donaldson at 6'1 238. The Mountaineers have had a few extra days to sit on their last second loss to Houston from the Hail Mary, so look for them to come out ready to play. Maybe the 3rd time is the charm because I'm picking against the Pokes again. WVU wins at home 33-27.
UTSA at Florida Atlantic ($)
An under the radar game in the American, but these two teams are fighting to keep pace with SMU and Tulane in the conference. Both teams got back on track once October started after a rough September. Both teams also average in the mid-upper 20s for points per game, so this one should be tight the whole way. On paper the stats match up all quite evenly between their top playmakers, so I'll take the home team. I think FAU has some potential in the back half of the season to make a run in the American. Owls win over the Roadrunners 31-28.
#13 Ole Miss at Auburn
The Tigers have lost 3 in a row but now get to host the Rebels for a potential upset. Ole Miss has handled their business apart from the Alabama loss and have a good opportunity to win the West with a Bama stumble. Jaxon Dart has been torching defenses all season long and I expect a similar result in this one. Rebels win on the road 37-21.
#2 Michigan at Michigan State
The Big Brother and Little Brother meet again amid a NCAA investigation into alleged sign stealing by the Wolverines and coaching chaos in East Lansing after firing Mel Tucker a few weeks ago. Michigan has looked nothing less than impressive this season, pounding the rock and taking care of business in every facet of the game. Michigan State blew a 21 point 4th quarter lead against Rutgers last week and have struggled offensively this season. Wolverines roll in this rivalry 40-17.
#16 Duke at #4 Florida State
One of my most anticipated matchups of the weekend takes place in Tallahassee as the Blue Devils take on Florida State for one of the top spots in the ACC. This should be a really interesting game to watch, especially if Duke QB Riley Leonard can play. FSU is my dark horse for the natty and they've been playing a very high caliber of football. Jordan Travis and his receivers have been near unstoppable and the defense forces a lot of turnovers, sitting at a +5 turnover margin so far this year. Duke’s defense is no slouch though, they rank 4th in the nation for scoring defense and have only given up double digit points twice all season. FSU is on major upset watch in this game and I think it could be far closer than the experts think. I’ve got the Seminoles hanging on in a scare from the Blue Devils down in Tallahassee. FSU 26, Duke 24.
#14 Utah at #18 USC
The Trojans come home after a brutal loss in South Bend to the Irish, and now host the reigning conference champs who beat them not once, but twice last season. Cam Rising is still out however, so the offensive production for the Utes will likely be mediocre at best. Caleb Williams is looking to bounce back from his first ever 3-interception game. He'll be up against a Utah defense that loves to bring pressure, ranking #7 in the nation for sacks. Williams has been sacked 10 times in the last two games, so look for this to cause issues for the Trojan offense. Typically, they score in bunches, but against Utah, that's not likely. They have a very disciplined defense, ranking #1 in Opponent 3rd Down Conversions with just 23% given up. I'm taking the Utes on the road. Utah wins 38-28.
Clemson at Miami
An ACC battle that involves two teams trying to put a full game together in hopes of getting back into the conference race. Clemson is not the powerhouse it once was, but their defense is still extremely difficult to move the ball on. They are giving up around 260 yards per game to opponents, but have not been able to get their own offense clicking. Miami needs to get that Monkey off their back after losing two straight to Georgia Tech and North Carolina. I like how Tyler Van Dyke has been playing but give me the Tigers for a 28-17.
Arizona State at #5 Washington ($)
A potential hangover game for Washington as they host the Sun Devils of Arizona State. I don't see ASU hanging around much in this one, but it's fun to watch Michael Penix Jr. and this offense get to work. They have great play calling and a team with their eyes on the prize. Huskies cover and win 38-10
Northwestern at Nebraska
The Huskers are back home and host a (surprising) 3-3 Northwestern team that had a horrible mess of firing Pat Fitzgerald. I laid out my keys to this game (and the rest of the season) above, but one area that concerns me in this game is 3rd down. The Huskers' have not had great at converting, sitting at 37.84%. Northwestern has plenty of struggles, but getting of the field on 3rd down is one of their strengths, giving up just 40%. Heinrich Haarberg will have a big target on his back with the Northwestern defense, but celebrating 100 years in Memorial Stadium, there's no way the Huskers are losing. The Huskers need some playmakers to step up, but this is a BIG 10 West matchup, which means I follow my rule, first team to 20 wins the game. I've got my Huskers at home 21-14.
#1 Wisconsin at #2 Nebraska (Volleyball)
We have a BIG TIME showdown at the Devaney Center tonight as Husker Volleyball takes on their arch rival and #1 team in the nation, Wisconsin. The Badgers and Huskers are both 16-0 on the season and have dominated everyone in their path. Wisconsin owns this series as of late, winning the last 10 meetings, including the 2021 National Championship that went to 5 sets. Nebraska is youthful with not a single senior in the rotation, but those ladies have TALENT! Ex-Gator Merritt Beason has been dominating all season and Husker Freshman Harper Murray is one to watch. My eyes are always on Lexi Rodriguez though because she does not let a single ball hit the floor. The Huskers have a phenomenal defense, allowing opposing teams to hit just .144. GIVE ME BIG RED AT HOME! Huskers win 3-1 and take the #1 spot in College Volleyball.
Quick Hit Predictions:
Texas Tech at BYU - Both of these teams have disappointed me in recent weeks with my predictions so I really don't know which way to go. I expected much more from both of these offenses, but I'll take the Red Raiders on the road. Wreck 'Em for a 31-26 victory on the road.
TCU at Kansas State - A Big XII Title game rematch, the Frogs take on the Wildcats. These teams are difficult to get a read on this year, but I'll take K-State with being at home. 27-21 Wildcats.
Boston College at Georgia Tech - The Golden Eagles and Yellow Jackets are set to play each other after each coming off a BYE. There's a lot of similarities in the numbers, so I'll take Georgia Tech 27-21.
The Perfect Parlay
1. BIG 10 West Parlay
- Iowa/Minnesota Over/Under at 32.5
- The line dropped from 32.5 to 30.5 after I placed this bet and I'd still take it.
- Wisconsin/Illinois Over/Under at 42.5
- It's the BIG 10 West, SMASH THE UNDERS
- The Owls are a home underdog with a dynamic offense. UTSA has been a cinderella for a while, but I think FAU has more offensive firepower this yeas.
- Again, I think Washington covers, but after a big game like Oregon, this team could sleep walk a bit. I think they cover, but I don't trust going over 59.5. The Sun Devils don't have any threat of making this a game in my onion.
No comments:
Post a Comment