Week 9 Predictions

      Happy Saturday football fans! We've got some serious football weather here in Lincoln as it's supposed to be close to freezing temps tomorrow for the Husker's game against Purdue. This post has a quick break down of the Northwestern victory for the Huskers along with my predictions for all the Week 9 games you want to watch. Tons of information packed into this post, so let's get to it.

     Nebraska's victory against Northwestern last week helped the Huskers reach an above .500 record for the first time since 2019. It wasn't pretty, but with another stellar performance by the Blackshirts, Nebraska held the Wildcats to just 9 points. I've got my GOOD, EXPECTED and BAD categories for my game break down below.

GOOD - The Blackshirts. The Husker defense has quickly become not only a strength of the team, but the foundation of it. Defensive Coordinator Tony White deserves every penny of his paycheck and probably deserves Marcus Satterfield's paycheck as well. The Blackshirts smothered Northwestern all game long and bailed out the offense from multiple disaster situations. With a decent offense Northwestern probably should've been up 17-0 halfway through the first quarter, but the defense held them back. With 8 sacks and 13 tackles for loss, it was one of the best (non-signal stealing) defensive performances I've seen in a while.

EXPECTED - Special Teams improvements. This area of the game has slowly been improving for the Huskers this season and it's great to see. Freshman Kicker Tristian Alvano drilled a 47 yard field goal, Brian Buschini downed 4 of his 7 punts inside the 20 and Tommie Hill had a 36 yard kick return. Lots of work to do in this category, but small victories are a big step in this area of the game.

BAD - Offensive play calls. Opening with a pass play against the worst rush defense in the conference is just one of the many concerning calls from the game against Northwestern. Emmett Johnson was running the ball in the first half, but the Huskers opted to attempt Joshua Fleeks early in the second half. There were 3 fumbles and a couple of bad picks in this game by the Huskers as well. Some of this blame can go to the players for a variety of reasons, but putting them in a successful position has been limited. Don't expect the offense to be winning us games right now.

Week 8 Record: 13 - 6

Overall Record: 102 - 31

#6 Oklahoma at Kansas

     Week 9 has potential for a lot of teams to get upset if they're not prepared for a battle, and the first of those upset possibilities is set to take place in Lawrence, Kansas. The Sooners travel up to take on the Jayhawks in a series they have DOMINATED throughout history. Kansas hasn't beat the Sooners since 1997, but could this be the year? The Sooners came out flat against UCF last week and had to stop a 2 point conversion in order to prevent that game from going to overtime. Kansas is coming off a BYE after a bad loss to Oklahoma State, so they're itching to get back in the conference title game race. Jason Bean will be starting again, so no Jaylon Daniels to help spice up this offense. Bean has been solid this year, throwing for 913 yards with 9 TDs and just 2 picks. He'll need to be sharp today as Sooner QB Dillon Gabriel is likely to put up big numbers as always. With more than 2,100 yards, 19 TDs and just 3 picks, he's certainly on some Heisman radars. This could be a high-scoring affair, and as much as I want to see (and will be rooting for the upset), I think Oklahoma has a bit more firepower. This should be a fun one to watch, but I'll take the Sooners on the road 38-28.

Clemson at NC State

     The Tigers are coming off an overtime loss against Miami, who got their first victory against Clemson since 2010. NC State had a BYE week to think about their 24-3 loss to Duke and will certainly be looking to score some more points in this game. Despite the offensive struggles for both units, defense is always a guarantee in this game. Currently both squads don't rank where they normally do as Clemson is 39th in scoring defense and NC State is 55th, but with just 1 victory (2021) over the Tigers since 2013, this is likely to be a gritty game. It's hard to know what to expect from either offense, especially with the struggles Cade Klubnik has had this season. I'll take Clemson, but this will be a grind of a game. Tigers win on the road 26-17.

#1 Georgia vs Florida

     The Bulldogs and Gators meet in Jacksonville for their annual showdown, but star TE Brock Bowers will be out for Georgia. This is another "upset potential" game as Georgia has been seen as flat this season, but we just don't know what to expect from Florida. They're so up and down and I struggle to see how they'll manage this game. However, this rivalry has had some crazy finishes before. The Dawgs have won 5 of the last 6, largely due to dominating the turnover margin. However, they're sitting at an even 0 turnover margin on this season while the Gators are -2. Turnovers make some of the biggest impacts when it comes to rivalry games, and I'll take Georgia 27-17.

#20 Duke at #18 Louisville ($)

     The Blue Devils fell apart in the 4th quarter after arguably dominating their game against Florida State. Star QB Riley Leonard is questionable for this game, and if he had been able to finish the FSU game it could've easily gone the other way. Defense is the big story in this game as Duke and Louisville rank 24th and 26th in total defense respectively. Jeff Brohm has the Cardinals at 6-1 in his first year at the helm, but have been sitting on their BAD loss to Pitt a couple weeks ago with they BYE week. The extra week should help, but I think Duke wins this one close on the road with another big performance by their defense. Blue Devils 27, Louisville 23.

#8 Oregon at #13 Utah

     Can the Utes pull off back to back PAC-12 upsets? They finished off the Trojans on the road with an impressive late drive and game-winning field goal, but now host the electrifying Ducks in Salt Lake City. I'm bummed this game is during the Husker game, because I really wanted to watch this one. Oregon has the most efficient offense in the nation, averaging over 550 yards per game and 47 points per game. The Utes play a rugged style of football though and the Ducks haven't won in Salt Lake City since 2016. This is always a great rivalry and both teams are coached by two of the best in the country. If you can watch this one, expect to see a great battle between Bo Nix and the Utes defense. Utah got a lot of pressure on Caleb Williams last week, securing 3 sacks but rushing his decision making and causing issues in the timing of their offense. With all the hype from Oregon, Washington and USC this year, people forget there's only one team that has won the last two PAC-12 Championships. Utah, Oregon and Washington are all in battle for that opportunity to represent the conference in the Playoffs, so this is a difficult pick. The Utes lost once to an Oregon team already, and the Ducks were a field goal away from going to overtime with Washington. This will be a good one, but give me the Ducks to edge this one out! Don't count the Utes out of the PAC-12 Championship yet, but Oregon wins a BIG one on the road 31-28.

Wyoming at Boise State

     Both the Cowboys and Broncos come into this Mountain West Rivalry game off a BYE week following a tough losses to Air Force and Colorado State respectively. The Broncos blew a 20 point lead in the 4th quarter to lose that game, so you know they're looking to right that ship. Wyoming is going to show up and run the ball right down your throat. I've talked about him a few times this season, but Junior RB Harrison Waylee averages 7.2 yards per carry, and loves to run through defenders, not around them. I think he carries them to victory and further into the mix for the Mountain West Championship. Cowboys rope the Broncos up on the road 23-17.

#21 Tennessee at Kentucky

     The Vols are looking to bounce back after their loss to Bama, but now travel to Kentucky as the Wildcats come off a BYE week. Both run defenses are physical and give up under 110 yards per game on the ground, so pacing a run game will not be easy in this one. Look for a lot of the action to come through the air, Joe Milton III and Devin Leary will be slinging it, but neither of these offenses have been has dynamic as expected. I still think Tennessee's one of the better teams in the East though and if they want to compete with Georgia they need to win this game on the road. Vols win it 30-24.

Michigan State at Minnesota ($)

     The Spartans and Gophers clash for a chilly BIG 10 battle in the Twin Cities. Michigan State has lost 5 straight games since their 2-0 start and Mel Tucker being fired. Minnesota has bounced back into the BIG 10 West race with their victory over Iowa last week, so this is an important game to keep them in the mix. There actually is a very unique opportunity for the BIG 10 West to end in a perfect 7-way tie, the perfect ending for the most special conference division in football in my opinion. Regardless, I expect Minnesota to handle business at home. Their defense should hold strong against the Spartans and offensively, Freshman RB Darius Taylor is one to watch. Sparty is all out of sorts and it doesn't look like it will be fixed soon. Gophers at home 23-14.

#3 Ohio State at Wisconsin

     After a big win against Penn State in the Horseshoe the Buckeyes head to Mad-town to take on the Badgers. Former Buckeye defensive lineman and interim Head Coach Luke Fickell now runs the Wisconsin squad and would love to secure a top 5 victory in his first season as head coach. The Badgers have a tough defense, but offense has been a struggle this year. They've shifted back to a run-focused attack after QB Tanner Mordecai injured his hand against Iowa, but back-up QB Braedyn Locke led an impressive 4th quarter comeback against the Illini last week. Ohio State is a different beast though. Marvin Harrison Jr. is damn near impossible to stop out at wide receiver, and the Buckeye defense will smother the Badgers. Ohio State stays tough 34-14.

Colorado at #23 UCLA

     The Buffs return after their BYE week to take on UCLA on the road. Quickly trying to forget their monumental collapse against Stanford, but the Bruins defense will not be easy to deal with. Colorado has been able to put up points in almost every game, so we could see a lot of offense here. Travis Hunter and Shedeur are a connection made in heaven, but the Buffs have weapons all over the offensive side of the ball. For UCLA, they run (literally) through Junior RB Carson Steele. With a 5.3 yard per carry average the Buffaloes need to tackle well to stay competitive in this game. I like the Bruins at home though as Colorado drops to 4-4 following a 33-21 loss.

#11 Oregon State at Arizona ($)

     In all the upset potential games this weekend, this is my biggest pick. I've been a big fan of the Beavers the last couple years and think they are one of the most dangerous teams in the conference with how they run the ball. HOWEVER, the Wildcats down in Arizona have been sneaky all year long, and coming off they BYE week to be rested, watch out for this game. They lock down teams for under 100 yards rushing per game so their defense against the Beaver offense will be fun to watch. Beardown as the Wildcats pick up the upset win at home 27-24. Spooky things happen during PAC-12 after dark!

Purdue at Nebraska

     We've got a cold, late October, BIG 10 West game set in Lincoln as the Boilermakers come to town to take on my Huskers. Nebraska is riding high with their first winning record since 2019, but the Spoilermakers are looking to notch another BIG 10 win under new head coach Ryan Walters. They've won 1 of their last 5 as opposed to Nebraska who has won 4 of their last 5 (very weird, but wonderful, to say that). Nebraska's defense is the big storyline of this game, as they rank 21st in the nation in total defense. Pressure on the QB should be consistent as the Huskers average more than 3 sacks per game and Purdue has given up 17 so far this season. This is a BIG 10 West game, so you know the drill. First team to 20 wins the game! I've got my Huskers at home as they inch closer to bowl eligibility. Huskers 23, Boilermakers 18. BOILER DOWN!

Quick Hit Predictions:

West Virginia at UCF - The Gold Knights are so close to getting their first Big XII victory, and hosting West Virginia is the perfect chance. The Mountaineers are on the downslide after back to back tough losses, so give me the Gold Knights! 36-31 UCF.

BYU at #7 Texas - The Longhorns were bailed out with a TERRIBLE ball spot for Houston last week, but now host BYU in Austin. The Cougars have been too up and down for me this year. Hook 'Em as the horns win it 35-14.

Mississippi State at Auburn - Neither of these teams have much of a say in what happens with the SEC West, but this is a fun match up to battle for bowl eligibility. It's a great spot for Auburn to get their first conference victory of the season and finish out a close game. The Bulldogs have two straight wins, but that defense is still a question mark to me. I'll take the Tigers close at home 27-24.

#24 USC at Cal ($) - The Trojans suffered back-to-back losses to Notre Dame and Utah, primarily due to their horrible defense. Offensively they were smothered by Notre Dame too, and Utah was pressuring Caleb Williams all night long last week. They need a bounce back win and should handle this one 38-20.

Marshall at Coastal Carolina - Solid QB battle in this one, but defense tells the story. Coastal is a solid team and plays very well at home. Marshall is not a bottom of the conference team though, and they upset the Chanticleers on the road 34-30.

UNLV at Fresno State - Two 6-1 Mountain West teams do battle in an effort to keep pace in the tight Mountain West race. Both teams have been able to find a way to win close games, but give me the Bulldogs at home off a BYE week. Fresno State 24, UNLV 21.

Perfect Parlay:

1. Minnesota over Michigan State but under 40.5 total points.

    - I like this bet because it's a classic BIG 10 game. Cold, rugged and two teams that don't do much on the score board. Gophers in a low scoring affair.

2. Duke over Louisville

    - The Blue Devils are likely getting Riley Leonard back and have one of the best defenses in the nation. Louisville will be high-flying on offense, but this is going to be won in the trenches. Blue Devils win!

3. Arizona over Oregon State

    - I told you this was my big upset pick of the day and although it's an undercard game, the Wildcats will make a big statement. Arizona beats the Beavers at home in the desert.

4. USC -14 over Cal

    - The Trojans need a bounce back win and need points. Caleb Williams and this offense is still deadly, they're going to show it. USC wins by 14+.

Thanks for reading my Week 9 Predictions and GO BIG RED! Stay warm if you're watching the Huskers!

#CFBKnowItAll

Alex Fernando