Despite all the momentum for the Huskers, the road trip to East Lansing ended in an extremely frustrating 20-17 loss to the Spartans. A few leaks in pass defense, questionable officiating and horrendous offensive output with 3 turnovers leads to the 5-4 Huskers still fighting for bowl eligibility. I've got my GOOD, EXPECTED and BAD categories broken down below.
GOOD - Emmett Johnson. While the numbers don't jump off the page for Johnson and the Husker offense, he's one of the few bright spots in my opinion. His rushing total dipped down to just 57 yards on 13 carries after topping 75 the last two games, but he's still averaging over 5 yards per carry on the season and *knocks on wood* is the only ball carrier who has yet to fumble for the Huskers. Definitely need to give some props to the true freshman and hope he continues to run hard.
EXPECTED - Frustrations with the BIG 10 Officials/Replay. I'm not one to blame the outcome of games on the officiating, but I do feel last week's game was heavily influenced by bad and/or missed calls. The reviewed touchdown clearly shows the ball on the ground. The missed pass interference call when the Michigan State defender threw his entire body into Malachi Coleman with the ball floating over head and the clock not stopping on the first down catch while the chains were moving on the final drive followed by the "fumble" from Haarberg with his arm moving forward. Again, the Huskers can't expect to win games with the poor offensive output and turnovers, but officiating like that is unacceptable for any level of football.
BAD - Nebraska's passing game. Apparently the concept of the forward pass as a useful tool and strategy for an offense seems to be more of a disadvantage for the Huskers. I know Haarberg's options are limited with numerous injuries to the wide receiver room, but the passing offense is extremely difficult to watch. Haarberg is unable to keep his head up and eyes downfield when moving in or out of the pocket, missing a lot of open targets. His telegraphed throws are always into heavy traffic and the drops by the wideouts on his decent throws are not good for his confidence. This is probably an issue that moves the needle in 2024, so get comfortable being uncomfortable with that ball in the air.
Week 10 Record: 16 - 7
Overall Record: 130 - 44
Week 11 Predictions:
#3 Michigan at #10 Penn State
The Wolverines and Nittany Lions meet for a top 10 matchup, but that's not the headline here. The main story of this game is if Jim Harbaugh will be allowed into the stadium at Happy Valley to coach his team. On Friday afternoon the BIG 10 issued a suspension allowing to Harbaugh coach during the week but not at games over the next three weeks. The University has issued a counter measure with a temporary restraining order in an attempt to block the suspension on Friday night. Separate of all this drama, there is a football game that will kick off at 11 AM central time, so let's look to that. Michigan has been dominant all season long. Penn State's only blemish is the loss in the horseshoe against the Buckeyes. Can their offense step up to the challenge? This will likely be a defensive slugfest if we can get to the football. Penn State probably has the best chance to beat Michigan, but they never seem to finish the deal. The Wolverines have yet to be tested this year (for obvious, sign-stealing reasons), but I think they hold on to win outside all the noise. Michigan 24, Penn State 17.
Texas Tech at #16 Kansas
The Red Raiders travel to Lawrence with an opportunity to shake things up in the Big XII conference standings. The Longhorns and Pokes sit atop the conference, but Kansas (and many others are right on their heels. While Tech isn't quite in the mix unless there's quite a few tumbles, they would love nothing more than to knock off a ranked KU squad. The air-raid era in Lubbock seems to have morphed into a more balanced attack as Senior RB, Tahj Brooks has more than 1,000 yards to his name this season with 7 rushing TDs as well. Kansas runs the ball quite well on their own, averaging just under 200 yards per game and ranking 19th in the nation. This may not be one of the classic Big XII shootouts of old, but it will certainly be a good game. Rock Chalk as the Jayhawks beat the Red Raiders 27-21.
#21 Arizona at Colorado
The red hot Wildcats head to Boulder to take on the spiraling Prime Time Buffs. With a 4-2 conference record, Arizona is not completely out of the PAC-12 race. They would need some more help, but you never know what's going to happen in college football. For this game, there should be a lot of speed to watch for. Colorado has struggled to protect Shedeur Sanders this season, allowing 46 sacks which ranks second to last in the nation. Arizona has 23 sacks on the year thus far, so look for them to add pressure and keep Shedeur Sanders uncomfortable. Defensively for the Buffs, they need to find a way to slow down Arizona's offense. They've put up nearly 800 yards of offense in their last two games, against two of the better defenses in the PAC-12 conference. Freshman QB Noah Fifita is the player to watch, along his favorite target, 6'5 Sophomore Wide Receiver Tetairoa McMillan, who has 753 yards and 7 TDs so far this season. Travis Hunter will likely follow him around the field, so we've got a best on best matchup you won't want to miss there. If you haven't watched Arizona football yet, tune into this game. Wildcats win on the road 34-28.
#18 Utah at #5 Washington
Sticking in the PAC-12, we see if the Huskies can turn around for another big game following the USC shootout without having a hangover. Following the Oregon, they nearly fell and dropped one to Arizona State. The Utes are likely a tougher opponent compared to the Sun Devils, so any slip ups against them could be very costly for the Huskies. Lucky for them, they have a man named Michael Penix Jr. slinging the ball, and complimented by RB Dillon Johnson who is coming off an INSANE 256 yard, 4 TD performance against the trojans. Utah's defense is rugged and they love to slow the game down with pressure and negative players. However, I don't think they have the offensive firepower to keep pace with Washington. The Utes are always dangerous for an upset, but give me the Huskies 30-17.
#13 Tennessee at #14 Missouri
Not that it matters too much with Georgia all but securing their spot in the SEC Championship game again, but we do have an intriguing matchup of top 15 teams in the SEC East. The Vols travel to Columbia to take on the Tigers of Mizzou. They put up a strong fight against the Bulldogs, but fell to them as all typically do. I would expect to see some fireworks in this game though, both teams average in the low 30s per game for points, and with dynamic players such as Luther Burden III (Mizzou Wideout) and Jaylen Wright (Tennessee RB). The QB battle will be the deciding factor though, as neither Joe Milton (Tennessee) and Brady Cook (Missouri) are two of the best gunlingers in the nation. This is a tricky game to predict, but I'll give the nod to the home team as Mizzou. Tigers win at home 28-24.
Miami vs #4 Florida State
The 'Noles and 'Canes renew their rivalry in Tallahassee for a big ACC November showdown. FSU looks to remain perfect on the season behind Heisman-hopeful QB Jordan Travis. He's been torching defenses all season long with his favorite target, ex-Michigan State receiver Keon Coleman who has 538 yards and 9 TDs on the year. Miami started their season hot with the big win over A&M, but since their blunder against Georgia Tech, they've lost 3 of their last five and their two wins were slim in overtime. Their defense has been okay but not great over these few weeks, however, they still rank 19th in the nation in total defense. The offense hasn't produced much of anything though, and that will be the issue today. The focus will be on Jordan Travis and the Florida State offense, but this game will be won because of the FSU defense because they rank 7th in opponent third down conversions, allowing just 28%. Dominant win for FSU all around. Seminoles 38, Hurricanes 17.
#15 Oklahoma State at UCF
The Pokes won the last ever (scheduled) BEDLAM game last week and sit atop the Big XII standings along with Texas. They control their own destiny to play for a conference championship by winning out, and now travel to conference newbie UCF. The Knights (as I predicted) finally got their first Big XII win over Cincy last week and could very well be upset minded with the Pokes in town. Lots of potential for a hangover game for the Cowboys after a crazy BEDLAM game. They may be sleepy for a bit, but star RB Ollie Gordon II will takeover and have another big game. Pokes run away late on the back of Gordon for a 30-17 win.
Rutgers at #22 Iowa ($)
The first every game to have a total point mark under 30 takes place in Iowa as the Scarlet Knights look to be the team to score double digits on this defense. We know the Hawkeye offense isn't going to produce anything significant, but turnovers and special teams are the key in this game. It's still a bit of a mystery when you look at Rutgers because they've had a great start to the season, held Ohio State down in the first half, but then were overpowered in the second half. Iowa's defense won't let them do much, but scoring double digit points might win you the game in this one. It's impossible to pick against Iowa when I know other teams will make mistakes though. I'll be cheering for Rutgers but I'll take the Hawkeyes at home. Smash that under if you're betting. Iowa 13, Rutgers 9.
Minnesota at Purdue ($)
The Gophers dropped a close one to Illinois at home last week, moving them out of the first place spot for the BIG 10 West. They have the tie breaker with Iowa, so if they keep pace and the Hawkeyes drop one then Indianapolis is still in reach. They travel to West Lafayette today to take on the Boilermakers who have struggled to put things together under first year Head Coach Ryan Walters. They've lost 4 straight since beating Illinois 44-19 back in September, and they have scored a combined 48 in those 4 games. Hudson Card and the offense need to find a way to put up points, but that won't be easy against the Gophers. Classic BIG 10 matchup, so you know the drill, first team to 20 wins the game and I've got the Gophers. Minnesota 24, Purdue 10.
#9 Ole Miss at #2 Georgia
The Rebels travel to Athens to take on the DAWGS between the hedges in an SEC battle with championship appearance implications. Ole Miss needs some help with Bama losing, but they could put a dent in the the Dawgs armor with a big road upset. Jaxon Dart and Quinshon Judkins have been sensational for Ole Miss, leading them to be the 11th best offense in the nation. They've got a tough task ahead though as Georgia's defense gives up just over 15 points per game. Bulldog QB Carson Beck has quietly had a very strong season in his first year starting, and this could turn into a bit of a shootout down in Athens. It's impossible to go against the Dawgs at home though. I'd love to see some chaos, but give me Georgia with another arms-length victory 34-24.
West Virginia at #17 Oklahoma
The Mountaineers are right in the mix of the Big XII Conference race, sitting at 4-2, just like Oklahoma. The Sooners have spiraled after their win in the Red River Rivalry against Texas, narrowly beating UCF at home and then dropping back to back games against Kansas and Oklahoma State. They need a big bounce back performance today, but need to be ready to play because although they've lost a couple close ones, the Mountaineers have scored at least 34 points in each of their last 4 games. Sooner QB Dillon Gabriel has thrown a pick in each of the last 3 games, so turnovers have contributed to the struggle as well. The defenses are the key factor here, especially with forcing turnovers and field position. Oklahoma gives up just 29% of third down conversions and they're playing at home. Boomer Sooner in this one but, it's closer than you think. Oklahoma 33, West Virginia 28.
Duke at #24 North Carolina
Just a few weeks ago this was looking to be like one of the basketball matchups between these schools with high rankings and conference championship implications. A few injuries to key player and upset losses have changed the narratives, but these basketball blue bloods meet on the gridiron today for what should be an entertaining game. The Blue Devils rely on their defense to slow things down and force turnovers for their offense. They have a +2 turnover margin on the season, but the Tar Heels actually rank 3rd in the nation with +12. Drake Maye and the UNC offense lost a couple of upsets in October, but not from a lack of points. They put up just shy of 40 points per game on average, and they do it again today as they beat Duke 35-28.
USC at #6 Oregon
The gauntlet of games continues to stack up against the Trojans as they now travel to Autzen Stadium to take on the Ducks. Bo Nix and the Oregon squad are looking to get back to the PAC-12 Championship with hopes of getting a chance to face off against Washington again. We have another stellar QB battle out west as Nix and Caleb Williams duke it out. The Trojans were going punch for punch last week against the Huskies until the fumble right before the half. Oregon's defense has quietly been dominating every opponent, and they have a +8 turnover margin. USC was torched by the run last week and fired Defensive Coordinator Alex Grinch following the loss. I don't think that is going to help them much and Bo Nix lights them up for a big game in PAC-12 after dark. This will be another fun one to watch and you'll see why I think Oregon makes the Playoffs this year. Ducks beat the Trojans 35-21.
Maryland at Nebraska
The Terps roll into Lincoln for a morning kickoff in Memorial Stadium. The Veteran's Day honors and celebrations are set and we've got a BIG 10 matchup that determines which team secures a bowl spot first. Husker Nation would love nothing more than seeing their team get bowl eligible today, especially at home. Unfortunately, this Husker offense does not make their fans very happy. The Huskers rank 131st in the nation with a -12 turnover margin. The Husker offense is the true opponent today as Maryland will look to pick up some of the multiple fumbles we can all expect watching this game. For the Terps, star QB Tualia Tagovailoa is looking to get their team back on track after 4 straight losses following their 5-0 start. He's thrown for nearly 2,500 yards with a 21:7 TD to INT ratio. The Husker secondary has been giving up some tough pass completions at the wrong time, they will be tested probably more than they have been since Colorado in this game. Tagovailoa is very dangerous when given time in the pocket, and the Terps only allow about 2 sacks per game. Pressure from the Blackshirts will be key in this one, because scoring double-digits in this game might be enough to hold the Huskers down. I really want to see the Huskers achieve bowl eligibility today, but I can't trust the offense to put up enough points. Tough day in Lincoln as the Huskers fall 21-13 at home. Prove me wrong please!
Quick Hit Predictions:
#8 Alabama at Kentucky - The Tide are back atop the SEC West and clinches their spot in Atlanta with a win today on the road. Wildcats QB Devin Leary and RB Ray Davis lead this offense for Kentucky, and are great players to watch. The Tide Roll behind their defense though, and they clinch the SEC West with a 31-14 victory.
Virginia Tech at Boston College - The Hokies and Golden Eagles meet for an undercard ACC matchup, but this game has some spice to it. Virginia Tech is just 2 wins away from bowl eligibility, and they have to win at least one road game to get there. BC continues to win the close games, and they do it again at home. Boston College 23, Virginia Tech 20.
Georgia Tech at Clemson - Bowl eligibility on the line as the Tigers host the Yellow Jackets. Georgia Tech as pulled some big upsets this season, but Clemson has momentum back. Dabo said it and while I'm not buying much stock, I'll buy it for this game. Tigers find off the Yellow Jackets with defense at home 28-17.
Northwestern at Wisconsin ($) - The Wildcats and Badgers meet for a BIG 10 West showdown at Camp Randall. Both teams come in frustrated after the Wildcats lost late to Iowa in Wrigley and Wisconsin fell on the road to Indiana. It's really hard to know who is going to step up in this game as Northwestern has been very surprising this year and the Badgers have been flat in Luke Fickell's first year. Give me the Badgers at home 20-14.
Michiagan State at #1 Ohio State - Sparty knocked my Huskers last week, but now travel to the Horseshoe to take on the top ranked Buckeyes. Ohio State continues to dominate the second half of games after sluggish starts, but this one shouldn't have many issues. Buckeyes 38, Spartans 10.
Florida at #19 LSU - The Gators and Tigers meet in Death Valley tonight for a bit of a lackluster SEC fight. Neither team has lived up to hype this year, and the Gators are still in need of a victory for bowl eligibility. Jayden Daniels was taken out of the Bama game last week due to a concussion, so he may be out. This makes this game a bit closer, but I don't trust Florida to finish this game. Tigers win at home 30-24.
Mississippi State at Texas A&M - The Aggies can secure a post season with a win at home after a tough month where they've lost 3 of their last 4 games. The Bulldogs have flopped in their last two games and I think the Aggies' defense takes control in this one. Gig 'em for a 27-17 victory.
The Perfect Parlay:
1. BIG 10 Unders
- The only games I had marked this week were the BIG 10 matchups of Iowa/Rutgers (28.5), Minnesota/Purdue (46.5) and Northwestern/Wisconsin (42.5). I've been burned every time I try this parlay, but it's always close. I trust the BIG 10 in November and I think today is the day. Bet the under and enjoy some BIG 10 West football.
Thanks for reading my Week 11 Predictions and enjoy your College Football Saturday! GO BIG RED!
#CFBKnowItAll
Alex Fernando
Great write up! Any thoughts on:
ReplyDelete- Baylor/Kansas State
- Pitt/Syracuse
- Washington/Cal
Thanks