Week 10 Predictions

    Welcome to November! It's Week 10 and we kick off November College Football with some fantastic matchups. My Huskers can get bowl eligible for the first time since 2016 this weekend and there could be some shake ups in the CFP rankings after Saturday. Before we get to my picks though, I've got a quick breakdown of the Huskers' win at home against Purdue. Check it all out below!

    The Huskers walked out of a brutally cold Homecoming with a 31-14 victory over the Boilermakers despite fumbling nearly every other possession throughout the game. The opening kickoff was given to Purdue after the Huskers fumbled on the return, but the story of the day once again came from the Blackshirts as they derailed the train all day long. Below is my break down my GOOD, EXPECTED and BAD categories of the game.

GOOD - The Blackshirts deserved the shutout they had going in this game as they held Purdue to fewer than 200 total yards and forced 3 turnovers. They were constantly put in a bad position from their offense, but rose to the occasion countless times in the bitter cold to shut down the Boilermakers. This unit has been sensational all season and it's hard not to expect a breaking point coming. They seemed determined to not let that happen though. My biggest takeaway is the continued pressure on opposing QBs. The Huskers now have 26 on the season, averaging around 3 per game. Big performances on this side of the ball and they're the reason the Huskers are 5-3.

EXPECTED - Rising special teams play and Jeff Sims. I have a positive and negative selection for this category this week. Getting the bad one out first, I think we can all agree that the Jeff Sims experiment is done now. I very much did not want to see him go in on Saturday, yet we got it anyways. Immediately the game was starting to flip due to his inability to hold the ball. I have nothing personal against the man, but there's no reason to have him take snaps when Haarberg is healthy. On the positive side, I mentioned it ahead of last week's game, but the special teams unit (minus the return game) is on the rise. Alvano is gaining confidence every week and hitting a 55 yard field goal in bitter cold weather is no small accomplishment. The blocked kick returned for a TD was electrifying and shows this coaching staff values Special Teams. Now we just need to figure out the returns.

BAD - Fumbles and anyone who hasn't watched Matt Rhule's fight pregame speech. First and foremost, the Huskers put the ball on the ground entirely too much. They're actually last in the nation with 24 total fumbles and 11 lost. Army (a triple option team) is the next closest in fumbles with 19. This issue doesn't look like it's going to be fixed soon, but it could certainly cause issues if not addressed soon. The last BAD piece of the week is for anyone in the nation who has not watched the video of Matt Rhule's speech ahead of the game. Whether you're a Husker fan or not, you'll want to run though a brick wall after you listen to him talk. Sensational leader and speaker. Great fit for Husker Nation right now.

Week 9 Record: 12 - 6

Overall Record: 114 - 37

Week 10 Predictions:

#1 Ohio State at Rutgers

    The Buckeyes travel to Piscataway to take on the Scarlet Knights who are sitting at a surprising 6-2 record. Their competition hasn't been impressive, but when you reach bowl eligibility before November you're doing something right. This is a good "prove it" game for both teams though. Ohio State earned the first #1 ranking from the College Football Playoff Committee due to their strength of schedule, but they have not looked dominant in their wins. Favored by nearly 20 points, this is a game that could become a major reinforcing statement for that #1 ranking. For Rutgers, this is a good test to see if they can cause some damage in the BIG 10 East. They rank 2nd in the nation for pass defense, but Marvin Harrison Jr. is a different animal. Greg Schiano has a deadly run game behind Junior RB Kyle Monangai, but will likely need more offensive output to keep up with Marvin Harrison Jr. and the Buckeyes. Give me Ohio State by 3 scores in this one. Buckeyes 38, Rutgers 17.

#23 Kansas State at #7 Texas

    The Wildcats have given up just 3 points in their last two games, but now take on a Texas offense that averages 34.5 points per game. Both teams will look to run the ball early and often as K-State is led on the ground by DJ Giddens, a sophomore back who averages 6.2 yards per carry and has 7 TDs on the year. The Longhorns quickly found a star to replace Bijan Robinson as sophomore Johnathan Brooks has nearly 1,000 yards on the season with his 7 TDs. It should be a rugged, ground and pound game down in Austin. This feels like one of those games where no one is paying attention to the Powercats and they pull this upset that everyone is shocked by except for them because they're all business. Three of the last four have been 1-score games, but I like Texas to continue their streak and make it 7 straight on K-State. Horns Hook 'Em 28-23.

Texas A&M at #10 Ole Miss

    The Aggies bounced back after the BYE week with a much needed win against South Carolina, but now travel to the Grove to take on the 10th ranked Rebels. Ole Miss has a dynamic offense led by QB Jaxon Dart and RB Quinshon Judkins. The story of this game will be on 3rd down though, because that is where the A&M defense thrives. They rank 7th in the nation, allowing opponents to convert less than 29% of their third downs. The Rebels rank 93rd in conversion rate with just over 36%, so this part of the game heavily favors the Aggies. If they can get Jaxon Dart and this offense off the field consistently, this could turn into a game with big upset potential. However, the Aggies are still struggling to turn the switch on offensively, and with too many points early they could be too far behind to come back. This is an intriguing game to watch with the 11 AM start, but I like the Rebels in the Grove. Can't quite trust A&M. Ole Miss wins 36-30.

#12 Missouri at #2 Georgia

    The Bulldogs host the 12th ranked Tigers and you're probably wondering; when did Missouri climb so high in the rankings? It's a fair question, but the Tigers have dominated opponents apart from their lone loss to LSU in a shootout a month ago. They could be the best option for an upset on Georgia, and that all runs through the QB-WR duo of Brady Cook and Luther Burden III. This pair has connected 61 times through the air for 905 yards and 6 TDs. Georgia will need to know where Burden is lined up on every play as he's consistently burned opposing defenders from a wide range of positions. The Dawgs are still looking for someone to step up following the loss of star TE Brock Bowers, and while they're still putting up an average of 40.5 points per game, there's a lot of questions on what this offense really has to it. Regardless, they should handle the Tigers of MIZ-ZOU. Bulldogs control the SEC East with a 38-10 victory.

#9 Oklahoma at #22 Oklahoma State (BEDLAM)

    For the last time in who knows how long, we have BEDLAM! This game is truly one of the biggest losses when it comes to conference realignment because the in-state rivalry between the Sooners and Cowboys has been played nearly every year since 1904. The chaos, the madness, the pure insanity that is BEDLAM writes its final chapter as member teams of the same conference with OU off the to SEC next season. Nonetheless, there's still a football game to be played and it has some Big XII Championship implications. After a very concerning start to the season, the Pokes have won 4 of their last 5 games and sit right in the mix for a conference title bid. Oklahoma is still in the driver seat, but after being upset by Kansas in Lawrence last week they will be looking for blood to get back in the CFP mix. This should be a classic BEDLAM shootout, but look for Dillon Gabriel to bounce back after not throwing a TD last game. Watch for the Cowboys RB Ollie Gordon II to have a big night though, he averages 136 yards per game which is best in the nation. Boomer Sooner (as usual in this rivalry) as they beat the Pokes 37-31.

Illinois at Minnesota ($)

    It's the BIG 10 West, so you know the drill! The Gophers have won back-to-back games and sit in perfect place to let the West run through Minneapolis. Illinois has fallen off with a 1-4 conference record, but could easily spoil the Minnesota's fun in this game. Neither QB has been impressive this year, but receivers like Isaiah Williams (Illinois) and Daniel Jackson (Minnesota) certainly help them out with thier 562 and 507 yard receiving respectively. Ball security is important when the goal is 20 points, but give me the Gophers at home. Minnesota 21, Illinois 14.

Iowa at Northwestern ($)

    The Hawkeyes are coming out of they BYE week knowing that OC Brian Ferentz will not be returning next season. However, he's still OC for now, so you can expect a baseball type score for the third game every played at Wrigley Field. The Wildcats are hosting a team that has more punting yards than offensive yards on the season, yet are somehow still an underdog. They had an impressive win against Maryland last week where QB Brendan Sullivan had his best game of the season with 265 yards passing, 2 TDs and another 56 yards rushing. It will be hard to put up those numbers against an Iowa defense that suffocates opponents to just over 4 yards per play, but on the bright side it doesn't take a more than two scores to beat the Hawkeyes. I like Iowa to bounce back on the road in this one, but the Cubs might have a better shot at breaking double digits. Hawkeyes 13, Wildcats 7.

James Madison at Georgia State

    The Dukes remain undefeated but due to (stupid) NCAA rules they are ineligible for both their conference title game and a bowl game. They would likely be the G5 team bidding for the New Year's Six Bowl Game, but for now they'll have to just keep rolling. A close game against ODU last week was one of their biggest tests of the season, and now host the 6-2 Panthers from Georgia State. Both teams have dynamic players at QB with Jordan McCloud (JMU) throwing for 2,036 yards with 18 TDs and 6 picks and Darren Grainger (GSU) with 1,789 and a 12:4 TD to INT ratio. However, my key player to watch is Georgia State RB Marcus Carroll. He's 3rd in the nation with 1,060 yards and 12 rushing TDs so far this season. This goes right into the teeth of JMU's defense though who rank 1st in the nation, allowing just 49 yards per game on the ground by opposing teams. This will be a fun battle to watch, and home field advantage will be a big factor. Give me the Dukes in a close one though! JMU wins 27-23.

Kansas at Iowa State ($)

    The Jayhawks won one of the biggest games in school history last week as they knocked off the Sooners for the first time since the '90s. Now they go on the road to face an Iowa State squad that is 4-1 in conference play and has been heavily forgotten. Someone else who is forgotten is Jayhawk QB Jalon Daniels. He's questionable for the game against the Cyclones with back tightness that has kept him out the past few weeks for KU. Luckily Junior RB Devin Neal has carried the load for the offense, and QB Jason Bean has done a great job stepping in as well. They will look to put up points against Iowa State who ranks 28th in scoring defense with fewer than 20 points per game given up. This one will be back and forth, but turnovers are key and I like Kansas to seal the victory with a big one late in the 4th quarter. Rock Chalk 27-21.

Boise State at Fresno State

    A classic Mountain West rivalry is set again as the Broncos travel to the Valley to take on the Bulldogs. Last year Fresno State had to travel to Boise twice, losing the regular season matchup, but winning the conference title the second time around. These teams are always at the front of the pack for the Mountain West Conference, but Air Force and UNLV are making it a bit more crowded this year. This game carries heavy weight with it which means we look to the turnovers. Fresno State ranks 2nd in the nation with a +11 turnover margin while the Broncos rank 121st in the nation with a -6 margin. Give me the Bulldogs at home with some key turnovers. Fresno State 31, Boise State 21.

#19 UCLA at Arizona ($)

    Yet another ranked team travels to the desert for a trap game with PAC-12 after dark. The Bruins held down the Buffaloes at home last week, but now face a very talented Arizona squad who are looking for another home win versus a ranked team. Last week they torched the Beavers through the air, throwing for 275 yards and 3 TDs. Sophomore wideout Tetairoa McMillan was sensational with 8 catches for 80 yards and a TD. His 6'5 210 lbs. frame is a lot to deal with for defenders, so look for him to get a lot of targets. Another dangerous player for Arizona is Senior wideout Michael Wiley. He has incredible speed in the open field, so missing tackles is a no-go in this game. For UCLA, keeping a hold of the ball will be a heavy focus. They were able to survive 4 turnovers against Colorado, but Arizona is a team that will make you pay for those. This feels like another spooky upset game, so give me the Wildcats in another upset 24-21 over the Bruins

#5 Washington at #20 USC

    A highly anticipated matchup in the PAC-12 that could result in one of the highest scoring games this year. USC has spiraled a bit the last couple weeks with back-to-back losses to Notre Dame and Utah followed by a slim victory against Cal. The Huskies have been flat since their big win against the Ducks, playing a couple of tight games with Arizona State and Stanford. Two Heisman-caliber QBs will battle in this game as Michael Penix Jr. and Caleb Williams look to put up big numbers. Both have sensational numbers this season with nearly 3,000 passing yards and a 24:6 TD to INT ratio for Penix, and 2,646 yards with a 25:4 TD to INT ratio for Williams. Slowing these teams down is the key, and no easy task. The Huskies have been much more impressive on defense, but need to step it up a notch in a game like this. I can't trust USC to stop Penix and the Husky offense, so give me Washington with the 38-31 victory.

#14 LSU at # 8 Alabama

    The rivalry that produces some of the best football games writes another chapter as the Tigers and the Tide meet in Tuscaloosa. Bama has a had a bit of a resurgence since their early season struggles, but LSU boasts the number 1 offense in the nation with more than 550 yards per game on average. Another Heisman hopeful QB will play in this one as Jayden Daniels looks to go 2-0 against the Tide after their 1-point over time victory last season. He's thrown for nearly 2,600 yards with a stellar 25 TDs and just 3 picks. On the other side, Jalen Milroe has hit his groove, but the true strength of Alabama is with the defense. Specifically with their pass rush, the Tide love to reek havoc on opposing offenses. They average 3.5 sacks per game and will look to apply a lot of pressure to Jayden Daniels all night long. This will be another tough battle, but one thing I'll say is that I don't think Bama is going to lose 2 home games in the same season. Give me the Tide at home in a great one 27-26.

Nebraska at Michigan State ($)

    The Huskers can get bowl eligible with a win over the Spartans today, which would be the first time since 2016. Michigan State is a mess of a program after the firing of Mel Tucker amid his sexual harassment situation, and they have lost 6 straight games including 5 in the BIG 10. Offensively the only real threat to the Blackshirts (apart from the Husker offense turning the ball over) is Sophomore RB Nathan Carter. He's averaging 4.3 yards per carry, but the 6th best run defense in the nation should be able to hold him down. The best way for the Huskers to win this game is to lean on the defense. Let them put the offense in good field position and take advantage of the turnovers. The offense doesn't need to score much, but taking care of the football is crucial. Look for a couple downfield passes from the option attack like last week and a lot of quick and easy throws for Haarberg to make. Satterfield needs to keep his reads simple and allow Haarberg to have open lanes to throw with clean route combinations. I'm anxious to see the Huskers on the road again, and I fully expect a multitude of unnecessary turnovers, penalties and the regular problems we've seen this year, but as Matt Rhule stated, we'll be complaining about an ugly victory, not a loss. Huskers 23, Spartans 14.

Rams at Packers ($)

    I will actually be in attendance for this game at Lambeau as I cheer on my Los Angeles Rams against the Green Bay Packers. I went to the Monday Night game nearly a year ago between these two and it was a blast. I'm excited to see Lambeau again for an afternoon game this time and more excited to see a healthier Rams squad than last season. Neither team has lived up to expectations the last couple weeks, as the Rams have dropped 3 of their last 5 and the Packers have dropped 4 straight. the NFC still has a lot of room available in the playoffs, so this will be a big game for two lower tier teams to move up. My favorite player, Matt Stafford, is questionable with a thumb injury, and with the BYE week ahead, I wouldn't be surprised if he didn't play (much to my dismay). However, that does open the door for the Rams ground game to take more effect. It took a hit with Kyren Williams getting injured, but I thought Royce Freeman and Darrell Henderson Jr. were a great 1-2 punch last week against Dallas, the team was just in too deep of a hole to run more. Getting a ground game established early will open up Kupp and Puka as the Packers load the box. Defensively, Aaron Donald will once again fight through multiple blockers to apply pressure and open up sack opportunities for his teammates. The secondary is the biggest area of concern, but the Packers receivers have struggled to have many breakaway games this season. I like this spot on the road and I like Los Angeles to bounce back with a good statement win before the BYE week. Rams 31, Packers 21. Can't wait to see this game!

Quick Hit Predictions:

#15 Notre Dame at Clemson - The Tigers are spiraling with a 4-4 record and fans voicing their frustrations. Their losses (other than Duke in the opener) have all been close games, but they struggle to make plays to finish it out. Notre Dame needs to be careful with a close game but I think they hold on to win 24-21.

Wisconsin at Indiana ($) - The Badgers couldn't muster up much offense against the Buckeyes and the Hoosiers couldn't slow down Penn State once they got going. I don't expect this to be a very pretty game but On Wisconsin as they win 24-10.

Virginia Tech at #13 Louisville - The Cardinals and Jeff Brohm have been a very big surprise this season, especailly after blanking Duke 23-0 last week. Their blemish against Pitt certainly raises questions of their viability for the ACC Championship, but the Hokies are also in the mix, so this is an important game. VT plays good defense, but they're not at home and they lose on the road. Cardinals win 30-17.

UCF at Cincinnati - The two Big XII newcomers who haven't won a game in conference yet get to change that as they square off in a battle of newbies. Someone will have a 1 in the win column for the conference after this game, and it's hard to say who, but I'll give the nod to the Gold Knights. I thought they had it last week and they've been close. UCF beats Cincy 34-28.

Houston at Baylor - My friend Ahman Green is on the call for this game down in Waco and he could see a classic Big XII barn burner. Neither team runs the ball very well but the air raid is alive in well for this Texas showdown. There are a lot of similar stats for these two teams, but the Cougars double the Bears in penalty yards per game. Sic 'Em as the Bears win at home 38-31.

Cal at #6 Oregon - The Golden Bears missed a golden opportunity to upset USC last week, and now travel to arguably the best team in the conference, the Oregon Ducks. Bo Nix and Bucky Irving lead one of the deadliest offenses in the nation, scoring on 88% of their red zone drives. Ducks big at home 45-10.

Miami at NC State - The Canes have won back to back overtime games at home, but now travel to take on the Wolfpack who are looking to get back in the ACC race. Neither of these teams have fully taken over games, but Miami is starting to play like a team that wants to win consistently. Give me the Hurricanes 28-24 on the road.

BYU at West Virginia - The Cougars have been hot and cold all season, and looked very cold against Texas last week in a 35-6 loss. West Virginia is 1 win away from bowl eligibility and would love nothing more than to be in that Big XII mix. They have the offense to do it, but they need the defense to step up and put BYU away. Take me home country roads as the Mountaineers win 36-23.

#16 Oregon State at Colorado - The Beavers lost a tough one in the desert last week against Arizona in a fantastic PAC-12 after dark showdown. Now they travel for the second week in a row to Boulder to take on the Prime Time Buffalos in another late kick. The Buffs have lost 4 of their last 5 games and could have a difficult time with the power run game brought on by the Beavers. DJ Uiagalelei should have a big night against the 132nd total defense in the nation and I've got Oregon State in a bounce back win 31-17.

The Perfect Parlay:

1. Big Ten Unders - Iowa/Northwestern, Minnesota/Illinios & Wisconsin/Indiana

    - If you're going to start betting on college football games, typically one of the easiest bets is to take the under with the BIG 10 West. Iowa/Northwestern is the lowest Over/Under mark ever recorded in CFB history, but it's still a solid bet. Take the unders.

2. Sneaky Underdogs - Kansas over Iowa State & Arizona over UCLA

    - It's a bit bold of me to predict (and bet on) back to back Arizona upsets of ranked teams, but watching them last week at home was impressive. They are a very well coached football team with tremendous speed and young talent that is ready to ball out. UCLA had 4 turnovers and survived Colorado. I don't think that will be the same story here. Kansas at Iowa State is a dangerous pick, especially with the possible hangover from a major win and going on the road. I'm not bought into the Cyclones though and I like KU to win this.

3. My Faves - Nebraska over Michigan State and Rams over Packers

    - Since I'm going to the Rams game and the Huskers have been on the rise, why not throw a small bet down on both of my teams winning this weekend? Makes it a little sweeter when we all win together. GO BIG RED and GO RAMS!

Sat with my Aunt & Uncle for the Husker game last week, we weren't cold at all!

Thanks for reading my Week 10 Predictions, enjoy your weekend full of football!

#CFBKnowItAll

Alex Fernando