Happy Saturday Football Fans! It's late November and we're just one week out from my favorite sports weekend of the year. Rivalry week will come soon enough, but we've got a great slate of Week 12 games to get through first. Some conference championships could set more of a clear picture this weekend and there's a few upset potential games you should watch out for. I've got a breakdown and analysis of the Huskers' loss against Maryland last week along with my picks of the week to make some money. Lots to cover in this post, so let's get into it!
The Husker offense yet again found a way to make their own defense play against two teams as they accounted for 5 turnovers and just 10 points behind 269 total yards. A majority (183) of those total yards came on the ground, but a complete nightmare of the passing game continues to negatively impact this team. I've got my GOOD, EXPECTED and BAD break down of the game below.
GOOD - Emmett Johnson. I said it last week and all during the game, FEED THIS MAN! Emmett has been a lone bright spot for an offense that has given us little hope this season. Again, there are a LOT of injuries to this unit, but Johnson continues to run hard and led the game with 84 yards. Easily could've gone for over 100 if Satterfield would give him the ball. The offense and their unnecessary passes really limits what can be done on the ground. I love throwing the ball as much as the next coach, but when you're averaging almost 5 yards per carry as a team and your lead back is gashing the defense, RUN THE DAMN BALL! Quick tip of the cap to the offensive line too. I rag on them a lot, but they did a tremendous job in this game opening rush lanes for multiple ball carriers and gave up just 1 sack and 5 tackles for loss. Probably their best game thus far.
EXPECTED - Solid Blackshirts performance. With 5 turnovers and a 2/9 (22%) third down conversion rate, the Terps should have DOMINATED this game against the Huskers. They have a high-powered offense that could easily put up 30+ in a game with those stats. However, they were up against the Blackshirts of Nebraska, who forced 3 turnovers themselves and had consistent pressure on the QB, landing just 1 sack but 8 total tackles for loss and knocking down 7 balls. Another stellar performance by the defense has been wasted by the offense's inability to get out of their own way. No matter how many times they're asked to make a stand, the defense rises to the challenge (usually with their backs against the end zone) and gives the offense another opportunity to right the ship. I also want to shoutout Tristan Alvano in this section. I fully expect him to drill every kick when he steps on the field and I haven't had confidence in a Husker Kicker like that since Drew Brown when I was in college.
BAD - Husker Quarterbacks. I hate picking on specific players in this category, but the QB room at Nebraska is absolutely terrible. The Huskers still can't find a guy to lead this offense and the most basic functions of the position are some of the biggest challenges. I have never seen a game where 3 different QBs from the same team throw an interception. All 5 turnovers came from the three QBs, Heinrich Haarberg, Jeff Sims and Chuba Purdy. There were multiple late throws that nearly got guys killed and resulted in incompletions rather than big gains. Multiple handoffs that looked like a fumble was coming and just an overall lack of awareness. Recruiting and the portal are the only way to move forward, but that's next year's problem. I think Purdy looked the best, but that's not a high bar and his throws are easy to read. The stat I'll leave you with is that this group of 3 combined for 10 completions to Husker players, and 4 completions to Maryland players.
Week 11 Record: 18 - 7
Overall Record: 148 - 50
Week 12 Predictions:
#10 Louisville at Miami
The Cardinals hit the road to take on the Hurricanes in a big time trap game. Miami battled Florida State well, losing by 7 to the 'Noles. The Cardinals had to battle back after giving up a first half lead against Virginia, winning 31-24. Miami has had some ups and downs this season, but one thing that has been fairly consistent is their defense. They rank 19th in total defense and give up just 20.7 points per game on average. If they can force some turnovers in this game their offense could be set up with good field position and make this upset a reality. I like the Hurricanes at home to upset Louisville 33-28.
Appalachian State at James Madison
The Dukes get to host College Gameday this weekend, following the NCAA's announcement earlier in the week, rejecting the petition from the university trying to gain permission to participate in postseason play. They host the Mountaineers who are no stranger to upsets, and could easily spoil the Dukes' perfect season. First and foremost, it's just bad for the sport to prevent a team like James Madison from participating not only in their conference championship, but for a New Year's Six Bowl. This game will feature a dynamic QB battle as both Joey Aguilar (App State) and Jordan McCloud (JMU) are posting 26:7 TD to INT ratios with 2,657 and 2,800 pass yards respectively. My key to watch is 3rd down. App State gives up 40% of third down conversions while the Dukes give up just 33%. I'll take James Madison to keep winning and keep shoving it in the face of the NCAA. Dukes 31, Mountaineers 27.
#22 Utah at #17 Arizona
A duel in the dessert features a couple of second tier PAC-12 teams as the Utes and the Wildcats square off. Arizona has an outside chance at sneaking into the conference championship game still, but I doubt Oregon and Washington will be giving up their spots. Regardless, both teams could use a ranked win to boost their bowl resumes and build momentum for next season. It's very difficult for me to go against Utah with how well coached they are, but I've really enjoyed watching Arizona play and this offense is spicy. They have a lot of speed on the outisde but will kill you by one thousand cuts in the run game as well. Wildcats keep winning 28-23.
#1 Georgia at #18 Tennessee ($)
The Bulldogs look to be back at full strength now, and showed that last week hanging 52 on Ole Miss. The Vols were originally thought of as one of the few challengers for Georgia this season, but their 36-7 demolishing by Mizzou last week has me questioning them a lot. Tennessee has had a few close games, but this won't be one of them. Georgia's offense is back at full strength and they win this game 40-10.
Illinois at #16 Iowa ($)
The Illini are looking to play spoiler as the Hawkeyes could lock up the BIG 10 West Division with a win today. By now you should know there's little to expect in terms of points or even offense for that matter in a game like this. Iowa has lost star defensive back and punt returner, Cooper DeJean, for the rest of the season. He was one of their primary sources of offense (despite not playing on that side of the ball) and leaves a big hole in their secondary as well. Illinois has pulled out some crazy, last minute wins the past couple of weeks, and seemed to have found their offense, scoring an average of 30 points per game in their last 4 contests. There won't be much scoring in this one though, and we could easily see both teams not hit double digits. Hawkeyes win at home because that's just how it goes. Although I'm rooting a little extra for Illinois so the Nebraska/Iowa game next week is a little more intriguing. Iowa 9, Illinois 7.
#20 North Carolina at Clemson
Two ACC teams who are trending in different directions. The Tar Heels still have an outside chance of making the conference championship, but the Virginia and Georgia Tech losses really hurt their season. They do rank 3rd in turnover margin with +11, so Clemson needs to be sure to hold onto the rock. The Tigers seem to be back on the rise, winning back to back games against Notre Dame and Georgia Tech. A lot of that success can be tied to the strong performances of RB Phil Mafah. The Junior has a 5.7 yard per carry average, and should be a workhorse in this one. Tigers beat the Tar Heels 33-28
UCLA at USC (Battle for LA)
The Trojans' season has spiraled out of control as thye're 7-4 and no where near the PAC-12 Championship or Playoffs. The Bruins on the other hand announced they do not plan on bringing Chip Kelley back after the season. They've fallen short of expectations as well, sitting at 6-4 and having lost their last two games. Their offense has disappeared completely, but their defense is still making life difficult for others. USC is the opposite, we know they're going to put up points, but managing that offense and slowing down Caleb Williams is no simple task. I'll take the home team for this one. Fight On USC as they win the battle of LA 37-28.
NC State at Virginia Tech
The Wolfpack and Hokies meet for an intriguing ACC matchup where defense is king. NC State has held both of their previous 2 opponents to just 6 points. Virginia Tech just demolished Boston College last week, so this game is a tricky one to predict. Games in Blacksburg don't tend to end up well for opposing teams though, give me Virginia Tech with some old school Beamer Ball and win it on with Special Teams 20-14.
UNLV at Air Force
The Rebels are 8-2 in their first season under Barry Odom and are looking to lock in their spot for the Mountain West Conference Championship. Air Force is at the top of the conference with them, but has suffered bad back to back losses to Army and Hawai'i. I watched the Rebels a bit last weekend in their game against Wyoming, and they put on a clinic of good football. They held the Cowboys to just 3/11 on third downs and dominated time of possession by 7 minutes. Air Force is a run first team that loves to control the ball. They typically keep their third downs very manageable, so we'll see which defense can force the mistakes. The key player to watch in this game is UNLV Quarterback, Jayden Maiava. He's smart with the ball and leads this offense well. Tricky game on the road, but the Rebels are hot and the Falcons have cooled down. UNLV takes the top spot in the Mountain West 27-17.
#23 Oklahoma State at Houston
The Cowboys followed up their big win in BEDLAM with an absolute dud last week as they were throttled by UCF 45-3. This team has been so hot and cold this season, and now have to fend off a few other Big XII foes in order to keep their spot in the conference championship secure. Houston has been up in down their first year in the conference, but still have a shot at a bowl game if they win out. One big issue for them has been their rush defense, which does not bode well when Ollie Gordon II comes to town. The Cougars rank 95th in the nation and I'm not sure that will be enough to stop him. Gordon averages 6.7 yards per carry and was locked down in Florida last week, so he'll be looking for a breakout day. Pokes bounce back and keep the Cougars from bowling in a close one 34-31.
UCF at Texas Tech ($)
The Golden Knights and the Red Raiders both had big victories over ranked teams last week. As mentioned, UCF thumped Oklahoma State 45-3, and Tech took down the Jayhawks (on the road) 16-13. They haven't fully lived up to what I thought they might be this season, but I have been saying all year how dangerous this Texas Tech team is. Remember they nearly upset Oregon back in Week 2. Both these teams are 1 win away from bowl eligibility and this should be a close one. UCF absolutely locked down the run game last week, holding Ollie Gordon II to just 25 yards. Texas Tech RB Tahj Brooks has had just 3 games where he didn't cross the century mark this season, so I expect a good battle between the Knights run defense and the Red Raiders rushing attack with Brooks. Tech has a solid defense of their own too, and I think that's the difference maker in this game. They played well against Kansas and a big win at home to secure a bowl game would be great for this program. Plus, they're handing out shirts with the possum on them for students, so you know they're going to win. Wreck 'Em as the Red Raiders win 35-33 at home.
#21 Kansas State at #25 Kansas (Sunflower Showdown)
We've got an instate rivalry between ranked teams as the Wildcats and Jayhawks clash in Lawrence. A bit of an up and down year for both teams, winning some big games and losing some head scratchers. Kansas has learned to live without star QB Jalon Daniels, but Jason Bean has done well in the roll, throwing for over 1,400 yards with a 10:4 TD to INT ratio. K-State has a few close losses on the season, but are still in the hunt to defend their conference title from last year. They have dominated this series as of late, winning every meeting since 2008. The Jayhawks have come close a few times, and will today, but that defense at K-State is no joke. Give me the Wildcats in a hard fought victory against their rival. K-State 27, Kansas 17.
Florida at #9 Missouri ($)
The Gators are spiraling with 3 straight losses and are in danger of missing a bowl game unless they can beat Mizzou on the road or Florida State at home next week. Neither of those games favor Florida, especially when they rank 75th in total defense and the Tigers boast the 26th best offense in the nation. Every week I've given high praise to Luther Burden III and his talents at Wide Receiver for the Tigers, and he absolutely deserves them. But this game will be driven on the ground by Missouri, and that's where Senior RB Cody Schrader shines. He's averaging 5.7 yards per carry and has 11 TDs on the ground this season. With the Gators giving up 160 yards per game on average to the rushing attack, he should have a big day. I don't want to take away from what ex-Badger Graham Mertz has done this season, throwing for over 2,700 yards with an 18:2 TD to INT ratio, but he doesn't have the defense to help him win this game. Tigers big at home 30-20.
#7 Texas at Iowa State
It's upset alert time! The Longhorns have been living dangerously with 3 one-score victories in their last 4 games. Iowa State is right in the conference championship mix with a 5-2 record and have been very hot in the back half the season, losing by 7 to Kansas as their only loss in the last 5 weeks. These late November night games in Ames always seem to bring out the worst in opponents, and upsets around this time of year not what you want if you're Texas. Quin Ewers and the offense looked good in his return, but the defense blew a 20 point lead in the 4th quarter, so the Cyclones will have their opportunities. Freshman QB Rocco Becht is the key factor in this one. If he can make smart throws and keep control of the game without turnovers, Iowa State has a good chance to pull this upset. Texas will lose at some point to knock them out of playoff considerations, but it won't be today. A tight one in Ames, Iowa, but the Horns walk away with a 34-31 victory.
#5 Washington at #11 Oregon State
The Huskies and the Beavers meet for a PAC-12 showdown that has major implications on not only the conference, but the CFB Playoffs. Washington has been another team living dangerously with close wins, and now they face a defense that has 18 total takeaways so far this season. The Huskies will look to air raid as usual, and Michael Penix Jr. will look to continue his Heisman campaign. He's thrown for over 3,500 yard and 28 TDs this season, but does have 7 picks. On the other side, DJ Uiagalelei has revived his career in Corvallis, throwing for nearly 2,300 on the season with 20 TDs and 4 picks while adding another 6 TDs on the ground. This will be a big road test for the Huskies as they look to finish a perfect 12-0, and it should be another close one. It's damn near impossible to slow down this offense though, and I think Penix has another Heisman-caliber game to win it for Washington 29-21.
Nebraska at Wisconsin (Battle for the Freedom Trophy) ($)
The Husker Volleyball team broke their losing streak against Wisconsin earlier this year so now it's time for football to end their drought, right? The Badgers have not looked great in their first year under Luke Fickell, especially as they've lost the last 3 games in a row and 4 of their last 5. Focus should be on the ground game for both teams as the forward pass typically spells disaster this season. Nebraska hasn't announced who will be starting, but I'm leaning toward giving Purdy the reigns. He looked good in that final drive against Maryland, and honestly, it can't get any worse. The Blackshirts will do what they do and shouldn't have too many issues against a very one dimensional Wisconsin team. Star RB Braelon Allen has not had the impressive season we expected and the rock has been shared with his teammates more. For the Huskers, all offense should run through Emmett Johnson. He's been dominant in the last few weeks and is the only reliable source of offense. Look for him to have a big night and give the Huskers a boost. Expect plenty of dumb turnovers though, because Nebraska loves to do that and lose the game. I had this as a loss in the beginning of the year, so I'll stick with that pick but I hope the Huskers can prove me wrong. I think it comes down to Iowa as Wisconsin gets the bowl bid today over the Huskers in a 14-10 victory. Please Huskers, make me wrong today!
Quick Hit Predictions:
#3 Michigan at Maryland - Wolverines should roll this game now that the drama has settled down with Harbaugh accepting his suspension. They've shown they can win without him on the sidelines and they do it against the Terps 40-17.
#14 Oklahoma at BYU - A sneaky game with upset potential, but I don't trust BYU all the way. They're too hot and cold for me so give me the Sooners on the road. Oklahoma 37, BYU 28.
Wake Forest at #19 Notre Dame - Sam Hartman gets to square off against his old team and he should put on a show against this defense. Irish win big 38-10.
#6 Oregon at Arizona State - A dangerous road game against a team that's been close to pulling some upsets already and loves to play fast on defense. I think the Ducks are up for the challenge though and they are on a mission to prove they're Playoff worthy. Oregon big 42-14.
Minnesota at #2 Ohio State - Minnesota is spiraling and the Buckeyes have Maserati Marv. This one shouldn't concern anyone much. Buckeyes dominate 38-7.
Boise State at Utah State - A fun Mountain West game where the winner gets bowl eligibility. Both squads are very similar, but I like the offense and QB play from the Aggies. Utah State beats the Broncos for the first time since 2015 by a score of 31-24.
The Perfect Parlay:
1. BIG 10 Unders.
Fear it, run from it, this bet arrives all the same. I simplified it to just the Iowa and Nebraska games this week, but I don't see either of these getting many points. Iowa/Illinois stays under 30 and Nebraska/Wisconsin stays under 37. No Minnesota or Purdue to mess things up!
2. Georgia & Missouri cover the spread.
The SEC East has been a mess outside of these two teams and although Georgia is on the road, I like their chances to cover 10.5 against the Vols. They dropped 52 on the Rebels last week and their offense is healthy with all its weapons. Missouri also has a 10.5 spread against the Gators, but they're at home and demolished Tennessee 36-7 last week after playing Georgia close. The Gators defense gives up 27.4 points per game, so look for the Tigers to have a big night.
No comments:
Post a Comment