Hello football fans and welcome to Week 6 of the College Football Season. It's a "prove it" week for a number of teams around the nation, and there are some big games with College Football Playoff implications. There's a lot to breakdown with some rivalries and conference clashes all across the nation. I've also got my thoughts from last week's Husker victory over the Terps, so let's dive in.
Nebraska defeated Maryland 48-23 last Saturday in Memorial Stadium as the Huskers pulled away with a big second half performance. A shaky first half somehow ended with Nebraska leading thanks mostly to an 81-yard pick six by Blackshirt Safety Dwayne McDougle III. Nebraska added another score just before the half ended to take the lead, but the pick six truly flipped the script. I've got my GOOD, EXPECTED and BAD analysis down below.
GOOD - Kwazi Gilmer and the Huskers' grit. Starting with Nebraska's #1 wideout, I've been very impressed by Gilmer so far this season. He's clearly developed a strong connection with Colandrea and has been able to catch nearly everything that comes his way. Against Maryland he recorded 11 catches for 147 yards with 2 TDs. He was missed on a couple of throws as well, so could've put up even bigger numbers. He's great at blocking downfield and knowing where the sticks are to run his routes to the correct spacing. He's a reliable set of hands to get the ball into on offense and can often times provide a spark when he finds open space. That spark was needed as the Huskers battled back from some adversity in the first half. Maryland was moving the ball extremely well in the first half and it seemed like the Terps may be ready to pull an upset. Husker teams of the past have struggled to battle their way back into the game, but this team has shown great resilience thus far in the season, finding the right grove and putting lower level teams in the dirt once halftime adjustments are made. As a coach I know all too well that a game script can get out of your hands quickly, trying to wrangle it back into your favor is no easy task. Kudos to the Huskers on being able to make the needed adjustments so far throughout the season.
EXPECTED - Anthony Colandrea makes up for mistakes, but shows his flaws. Playing a perfect game as a QB is impossible, so I'm not trying to hold Colandrea to an unachievable standard. However, you could see visible frustration from Kwazi Gilmer in the first half as many of Colandrea's passes fell a few yards short of the Husker receiver. His interception was a very poor choice and it looked like the old habits of a young gunslinger were coming back. Colandrea settled down in the second half and his passes were much more accurate. He rushed for 108 yards on the ground with a long of 51. Once settled, he looked like the veteran QB we've seen through the first part of the season and his rushing ability keeps the offense flexible and often times on schedule with the chains. He'll need to stay in that grove for Indiana this week. The inaccurate passes can't pile up in a game.
BAD - Penalties. Age old story, but when you tie a school record for flags I'm going to keep talking about it. Despite the officiating issues surrounding football at every level right now, Nebraska has to clean up the infractions. The Huskers racked up 16 penalties for 132 yards. Those negative yards become far too valuable in conference play, discipline will be crucial moving forward.
Week 5 CFB Thoughts:
- Florida flops but Mizzou made a statement. Impressive win by the Tigers
- Northwestern proves my theory from last week that they're a dangerous opponent in the BIG 10.
- No one celebrates a win like PJ Fleck. As insufferable as that man is sometimes, he understands how special wins are and I can't hate on that. Congrats to the Gophers for their first win over Michigan at home since the 70s and taking home the Little Brown Jug.
- Panic button time in Boulder. Colorado has soaked up all the Coach Prime juice and now it's just pulp.
- RIP to our Minutemen friends at UMass. Was hoping for that 5-0 but still an impressive start to the season.
- I told you the Beavers were a fun team to watch! They just got a DC fired mid-game and have one of the best wide receivers in the nation. Love watching Oregon State play football and you will too.
- Statement win by Baylor at Arizona State. Issues in Tempe, but Dave Aranda has a very competitive team in Waco.
Week 5 Results: 16 - 7
Overall Results: 81 - 47
Week 6 Predictions:
Texas A&M at #14 Missouri
The Aggies are still looking to piece things together after early season struggles and now travel to face a very confident Tiger squad. Mizzou truly impressed last week, demolishing Florida 45-17. The Tigers pushed the Gators around on the line of scrimmage and held them to just 42 yards rushing. Texas A&M has struggled on the line of scrimmage all season and their run game ranks 61st in the nation. This is a let down spot for Mizzou, but I'll give them the benefit of the doubt because I don't think Texas A&M is a very good team.
Arizona at West Virginia
The Wildcats travel across the country for an early kick with the Mountaineers. West Virginia has fallen apart the last couple of weeks, especially on defense. They've given up 86 points over the last two games and 1,186 total yards. Arizona QB Noah Fafita has been very good at picking apart defenses so far this season, throwing for over 1,400 yards with 13 TDs and 3 picks. Michael Hawkins Jr. of WVU loves to showcase his dual threat ability, but last week Arizona held Cincy to just 74 yards rushing. I think their defense travels and the Wildcats get a well-earned Big XII road win in the Rich Rod Bowl 38-28.
North Carolina at #25 Pitt
One of the first "prove it" games of the weekend, both Pitt and UNC have a lot to prove. Pitt needs to show they won't stumble against lower tier teams in the ACC, even with a backup quarterback now taking the reigns. The Tar Heels need to prove they're truly turning a corner under Bill Belichick, not just spinning the wheels. I think North Carolina's defense can slow down Pitt similar to Virginia Tech, but will their offense have as much success? Virginia Tech's 4 turnovers cost them the game last week, if Pitt gets turnovers in this game they'll win again. Panthers over the Tar Heels 27-20.
Wake Forest at NC State
The Demon Deacons travel to take on the Wolf Pack in Raleigh. Wake Forest has played great football this season and they are a very fun team to watch. QB Gio Lopez and WR Carlos Hernandez have been sensational, connecting for 603 yards and 3 TDs so far this season. Lopez has another 7 TD passes this season with just 1 interception. NC State is on a two game win streak, but they've still got a lot of questions marks in my book. I love how this Wake Forest team competes and I've got them winning 34-24
Duke at Georgia Tech
The Blue Devils are quietly following up their ACC Championship season with a good looking run to return to Charlotte. Duke is lead by Sophomore running back Nate Sheppard who is averaging 7.1 yards per carry and has 644 yards with 6 TDs through just 4 games. He's been nearly impossible for defenders to tackle, and that's something the Yellow Jackets have struggled with this season. The Rambling Wreck rank 123rd in the nation for rush defense, allowing 189 yards per game this season. Offensively, they rank 93 in total yards and will be up against Duke's 16th ranked defense. Manny Diaz always has the Blue Devils flying to the ball, and I think they'll get some pressure on Alberto Mendoza. Georgia Tech will have the better helmets, but that's about it in this game. Duke 34, Georgia Tech 17.
#1 Texas vs Oklahoma (Red River Rivalry)
The Longhorns and Sooners meet in the Cotton Bowl at the Texas State Fair for the annual Red River Rivalry. Both teams come in with phenomenal defenses, but the offense play favors Texas. Arch Manning and Texas will have their work cut out for them, but it's always a great atmosphere at Red River. I don't think John Mateer and the Sooner offense can keep pace in this one, but Oklahoma is in dire straights. I predicted them to be in the playoffs and they need to win this one if they want any chance. I don't think they have the edge, Hook 'Em 26-14.
#21 UCLA at #13 Oregon
One of my most anticipated games of the weekend, UCLA travels to Autzen Stadium as these former PAC-12 schools battle for position atop the BIG 10. The Ducks will be starting former Husker QB Dylan Raiola as Dante Moore is still in the concussion recover process. Raiola looked comfortable when he came in against USC, but can he replicate that performance? Bob Chesney has this Bruins squad running all over opponents, averaging over 280 yards per game on the ground. Their rushing game is paced by Wayne Knight who i averaging 9.1 yards per carry. The Ducks have more talent, and cannot afford to lose this game. I think they win it with the talent, but don't be surprised with an upset and regardless, UCLA keeps it close. This is going to be a great one to watch as Oregon edges UCLA 33-28.
#22 Houston at Kanas State
A big trap game awaits the Cougars as they head into Bill Snyder Family Stadium to take on the Wildcats. Kansas State is coming off a bye, which means they had an extra week to think about their road loss to Cincy. Houston's rush defense is currently 8th in the nation, but K-State will test them more than any of their previous opponents. Houston's defense overall is one of the best and the Cougars are pushing for one of the top spots in the Big XII. Only a close loss to Texas Tech as a blemish on the resume thus far. They've got a potential shootout with Oklaahoma State next week though, and you don't want to be caught looking ahead against Kansas State. This feels like an upset, so give me Kansas State to knock off Houston 24-21.
#15 Tennessee at Arkansas
The Vols haven't won in Fayetteville since 2001. Now these teams haven't played consistently over the past quarter century, but certainly an interesting stat. The Hogs have looked anything but intimidating this season, mustering no more than 17 points against Power 4 competition. I picked Tennessee to go 7-5 at the beginning of the year, and while they're currently looking to do otherwise, switching QBs mid-season is always an interesting move. Faizon Brandon is a bit banged up, but this QB change seems like more than just injury-based. George Macintyre will takeover play-calling duties, and lucky for him, he's got Desean Bishop to hand off to. The Tennessee RB already has 7 rushing TDs and is averaging 6.1 yards per carry. Arkansas defense hasn't done much to slow down opponents, and they certainly can't score. Tennessee's losses will come, but I think they avoid one today 30-14.
San Diego State at Oregon State
The Beavers are the most exciting team in College Football and it's primarily due because of a former Mercer QB and a true freshman receiver who was told by most coaches he was "too small". Braden Atkinson and Jesse Legree have connected for 741 yards and 9 TDs. Those 741 yards are a solid chunk of Atkinson's national best in pass yards, the Beavers have quickly turned their program around under new head coach JaMarcus Sheppard. San Diego State has a good defense, but not enough to stop Legree and the Beavers offense. Oregon State 34, San Diego State 14.
NDSU at UNLV
A big test for the Bison as they go on the road to Vegas. UNLV has been a bit up and down this season, but both teams are looking to stay perfect in mountain west. The Rebels will need to slow down NDSU, but most importantly, take care of the ball. The Rebels are even on the year, but the Bison are +8 and that's the difference maker. NDSU beats UNLV 27-21.
#10 LSU at Kentucky
The Tigers travel to Lexington for the first time since 2007. Wild scheduling has kept LSU away from Kentucky over the years, but I'm sure the Wildcats will have a warm welcome for them Saturday Night. They're coming off a comeback, overtime win against South Carolina. LSU has demolished both A&M and McNeese State since losing to Ole Miss, but another road game will test Lane's team. Tiger QB Sam Leavitt is dealing with some injuries but expected to play, and LSU has a number of other injuries on defesnse. Kentucky QB Kenny Minchey has looked really good this season, but this is one of those "prove it" games. If Will Stein and the Wildcats want to be considered as one of the top teams in the SEC, you need to beat LSU. QB pressure is what I'm watching in this game. LSU has 22 sacks on the season and Kentucky only has 10. We've seen Sam Leavitt struggle under pressure and Minchey couldn't get much going in the second half against the Bama pass rush. I think LSU wins out with talent, especially on the D-Line. If Kentucky can flip the pass rush script, they've got a chance. LSU 37, Kentucky 24.
#19 USC at Penn State
White Out conditions are set for Happy Valley as USC travels across country for this BIG 10 battle. The Trojans are quickly being written off due to their performances against Oregon and Washington the last couple of weeks, but there's a lot of season left. Penn State has dropped 2 games in a row to Wisconsin and Northwestern. They gave up a late TD against the Badgers, but Northwestern ran all over them and it wasn't close. The Nittany Lions don't have much identity, and if they get into a shootout with the Trojans I don't believe they can keep pace. USC got back on track late against Washington, mounting a 4th quarter comeback after being down 21-10. A big defensive stand at the end of the game sealed the victory. Jaiden Maiava has nearly 1,800 yards through the air with 15 TDs and 3 picks. His experience has really shown this season, picking apart defenses with a 68.6% completion rating and keeping plays alive with his legs. There are still issues on defense for USC, but this will be the best offense Penn State's defense has faced and I'm not sure they'll be able to slow them down for 4 quarters. Playing at home is a big advantage, but I'll say Fight On for USC to win 33-28.
#23 Boise State at Fresno State
A Milk Can is on the line as the former WAC & Mountain West rivals renew their series as members of the PAC-12. Boise State travels to Fresno State, both teams sitting at 4-1 and 1-0 in conference play. Outside of Oregon State, these two look to be the toughest competitors in the new PAC-12. The Bulldogs have been very tough on defense, allowing just over 16 points per game and holding opponents to a 33% conversion rate on third down. Boise's offense has experience across the board, so Fresno will need to play their best football to slow them down. Bronco running back Dylan Riley has 685 yards with 5 TDs so far this season and once he carries them into the red zone, you have to worry about TE Matt Wagner. His 6'5, 250 lbs. frame is perfect for red zone passes, and he's already got 4 TDs this season, more than any other receiver on the team. Fresno will need to keep up some scoring of their own, but their lack of a run game concerns me. Boise State wins the Milk Can and a PAC-12 Conference win 31-21.
#2 Georgia at #6 Alabama
The Bulldogs and the Tide clash for another SEC classic, this time in the wake of Hurricane Isaias. The game is scheduled as normal, but College Gameday has moved indoors due to the weather. Another "prove it" game of the weekend as Georgia has yet to be tested, but steamrolled everyone in their path. Alabama has struggled in the first half of a few games, but one their defense settles in, they let freshman QB Keelon Russell sling it and put up some points. Their run game is still very mediocre, but Russell opens up so many possibilities on the field. On the other side, it seems like most everyone around the nation has forgotten that Gunner Stockton has years of experience with the Bulldogs. He's got this offense memorized like hometown backroads and they've only been leading the nation in scoring. He will be rejoined in the backfield by RB Nate Frazier who has missed the last couple games with an injury. He'll certainly help boost the Bulldogs' rushing attack. With both of these QBs ability to expand the pocket and pick up first downs with their legs, its important for the defenses to keep contain. This should be a great, heavyweight battle to show us who is ready to take lead of the SEC. Give me the Georgia Bulldogs in a big win on the road with their defense 31-27.
#7 Wisconsin at #1 Nebraska (Volleyball)
For the first time in history, Fox Sports will be broadcasting both Football and Volleyball as their featured games from the same city. Nebraska Volleyball hosts one of their biggest rivals, the Wisconsin Badger. A top 10 matchup between two of the nation's best. Blackout conditions are expected in the Devaney Center tonight and the Badgers have to deal with the nation's best hitting percentage at .326 from the Huskers. It's going to be a great battle between the two setters to get their hitters the best opportunities, reigning AVCA Setter of the Year Bergen Reilly and Wisconsin's setter, Charlie Fuerbringer, who is averaging over 11 assists per set. Wisconsin has to try and stop the Slide Queen, Andi Jackson, and I'm here to tell you it's impossible. Back-to-back National Player of the Week, let's go for 3 as the Huskers Sweep the Badgers 3-0!
#7 Indiana at Nebraska
The Huskers host the defending National Champs as Big Noon Kickoff comes to Lincoln. Indiana has not looked like last year's team, and there's growing concern around the nation. It's the biggest "prove it" game of the day as both teams are 5-0 with fairly easy schedules thus far. The Huskers have been able to pull away in the second half of games, pouring on points to average 43.6 per game thus far. They've yet to face a defense like Indiana though, and the Hoosiers will certainly pressure Anthony Colandrea more. They've got 15 on the year thus far and the Huskers will need to get the ball out quickly or move the pocket to keep Colandrea out of harms way. The biggest battle of the game to watch is the run game. Nebarska gets RB Jamal Rule back, which will hopefully boost a run game that has struggled in BIG 10 play. Separating Colandrea's numbers, the Huskers have mustered just 195 yards from their backs in the two BIG 10 games against Michigan State and Maryland. Those teams rank 77th and 62nd against the run while Indiana ranks 7th. This will be a big test because the Huskers need to keep the chains moving and control of the ball. Indiana's rushing attack is led by two dynamic backs in Turbo Richards and Lee Beebe Jr. Both backs have over 500 yards to their names so far this season and are averaging 9.3 and 5.8 yards per carry respectively. The Blackshirts front 7 needs to slow dow these backs, or it's going to be a long day. I'm fearful they will be pushed around a bit, so I'm looking to linebacker Owen Chambliss and his team-leading 26 total tackles to put a stop to the Hoosier run game. Memorial will be rocking for Cignetti's first visit to the state of Nebraska, and I'm hoping the Huskers can channel that energy onto the field and put up some points. I want a "prove it" win from Nebraska, but until I see it I have to be honest with myself and all of you. Indiana 38, Nebraska 20. Change the narrative Huskers, I want to believe!
Quick Hit Predictions:
UCF at #18 Oklahoma State - The Knights defense is better tahn I thought it would be, but the Pokes offense is too high-powered. Oklahoma State 33, UCF 17.
South Carolina at #16 Florida - The Gators need a rebound and the Gamecocks are always a good option. They've got a lot of talent, but something is not clicking and Shane Beamer's seat might bie rising in temptation. Florida wins 31-21.
Stanford at #3 Notre Dame (Battle for the Legends Trophy) - The Cardinal would love to put a competitive performance together, but I don't think that will happen. Irish 45, Stanford 10.
Minnesota at Purdue - The Gophers have two big wins back-to-back, can they keep it up against the ol' Spooky Train? Purdue 's offense can put up points, but the defense is a different story. Look for big yards from both QBs in this one. Gophers 30, Boilermakers 24.
#9 Ole Miss at Vanderbilt - The Rebels travel to Nashville after a week off and I think they're going to have a big game. Vandy is banged up and Tinidad Chambliss needs to get back into the Heisman conversation. Rebels 38, Commodores 17.
Virginia Tech at Cal - James Franklin watched his Hokies choke away a lead last week with 4 turnovers. Cal has struggled all season, especially on offense with JKS. Hokies should handle this one 31-21.
Illinois at Michigan State - The Illini and Sparty need to get back on track. Neither team is playing BIG 10 Football. I'll go with Illinois because I think most of Michigan State's roster is still inthe hospital. Illini over Sparty 30-27.
Thank you for reading my Week 6 Predictions and enjoy your College Football Saturday! Be sure to check out my latest episode of Inside Heart Football as I break down all the Heart of America Athletic Conference games and keep you updated on the best conference in the NAIA.
#CFBKnowItAll🏈🧠
Alex Fernando
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