The Huskers handled business on the road against a depleted Spartans squad, winning 31-13. The early part of the third quarter was a bit shaky for the Big Red, but three turnovers helped Nebraska hold strong defensively. I've got my GOOD, EXPECTED and BAD analysis on the game.
GOOD - Pass rush and turnovers. The Blackshirts have answered my call and they racked up 6 sacks, 10 tackles for loss. Adding in those 3 turnovers, Nebraska did well to stop the Spartans. Michigan State isn't the best offense Nebraska will face this season, and losing their best player early in the game to injury certainly didn't help them through the game. This is the defense I was hoping to see under Rob Aurich, but keeping this level of play through the rest of the BIG 10 schedule is the true test. I've liked what I've seen so far and I hope it continues to improve.
EXPECTED - Andrew Marshall island and and the Husker run game challenged. Starting with the ground attack, Nebraska's offense struggled to run the ball, especially when Jamal Rule left the game. Separating Anthony Colandrea's numbers, the Huskers mustered just 91 yards on 31 carries. An average of just 2.9 yards per carry, the run game will certainly be under a microscope in BIG 10 play. On the other side of the ball, I expected Andrew Marshall to be a lockdown corner for the Huskers, and he is playing to that level. Marshall doesn't have a lot of action come his way because of his coverage, but when it does he knocks down passes and seals the game with a pick. He stays in the receivers' hip pocket and it's great to see the Blackshirts have a lockdown corner again.
BAD - Punt coverage and penalties. Nebraska's special teams has looked concerning in the first third of the season, especially when punting. Archie Wilson is a fan favorite with his personality, but his leg has underperformed in my opinion. He's got 3 punts inside the 20 this season, but the alternating foot kicks have been low, line drives, leaving a lot of opportunity for returns. The special teams units aren't a major issue for Nebraska yet, but I'd like to see them operate a bit cleaner in BIG 10 play. The other area for improvement continues to be penalties. We'll be watching those areas as the season continues.
Early Season CFB Thoughts:
- UMass is 4-0 and doesn't look to be slowing down any time soon. They're averaging 36.3 points per game and could make some statements for a CFP consideration. Very fun team to watch!
- UCLA is a dangerous team in the BIG 10. Other than a road trip to Oregon next week, they could be favored in the rest of the games on their schedule.
- Northwestern has some upset potential this season, very impressive defense.
- Michigan getting Iowa'd for their first (official) loss of the year is too funny.
- Don't sleep on Duke, they could very easily find themselves in the ACC championship conversation and that mid-November game at Miami should be a fun one.
- Big XII is wide open and don't think Oklahoma State can't walk through that door. Pokes are finding their rhythm after that opening stumble against Tulsa.
- Oregon State is a sneaky dark horse in the new PAC-12.
- Brutal hit on Oregon QB Dante Moore, hoping for a speedy recovery. Impressive for Dylan Raiola to step in and go win that game.
- PJ Fleck is certifiably insane. If you haven't watched the clip of him wiping his player's blood on his face after their win at Washington, it's nuts.
Week 4 Results: 15 - 13
Overall Results: 65 - 40
Week 5 Predictions:
#3 Notre Dame at North Carolina
The Irish travel to Chapel Hill as Bill Belichick looks to upset the #3 team in the nation. The Tar Heels have been much improved this season, but let one slip away against Clemson a couple of weeks ago with a weather delay mixed in. The Irish have very quietly beaten down lesser opponents by wearing them down in the second half. The first half of games has been a bit tight for the Irish, but their defense puts the screws on after halftime. North Carolina has only played 3 games this season, so we haven't seen too much of them apart from being mediocre, which is a step up from last year. Notre Dame's offense won't do much to surprise you, but they wear you down and win this one 38-14.
#7 Alabama at #16 Mississippi State
The Tide are on upset watch as they head to Starksville to take on the Bulldogs. Mississippi State's Sophomore QB Kamario Taylor has taken the nation by storm as he's lit up every defense he's faced this season, throwing for 1,192 yards with 14 TDs and just 2 picks. Much like Notre Dame, Alabama has done most of their damage in the second half. The Tide still struggle to run the ball, but they've got a dynamic, young QB of their own with Keelon Russell. He can keep the Bama offense moving, so turnovers are the key in this game. If Mississippi State can force a few turnovers, they could win the shootout. Unfortunately, I don't think their defense is quite ready to pull the upset, but I'll be rooting for them. Roll Tide 38-28.
UCF at #20 Houston (The Space Bowl)
I'm dubbing this game the Space Bowl in honor of the NASA connections for both programs. Houston dropped some badass new helmets they're going to wear for this game, all Galaxy theme. UCF has proven to be tougher than I expect, especially on defense. The Knights are allowing just over 15 points per game, but that will be tested by Houston's high-powered offense. Senior QB Connor Weigman has been tremendous this season, throwing for nearly 1,000 yards with 11 TDs and just 1 pick so far. His favorite target is senior wideout Amare Thomas who has 4 TDs this season and averages 12.5 yards per catch. UCF needs to find a way to slow him down, because I don't think their offense will keep pace. Cougars win at home 28-17.
West Virginia at Iowa State
The Mountaineers couldn't slow down Oklahoma State at home last week, but bring their deadly rushing attack to Ames, Iowa against the Cyclones. Iowa State has been a scrappy team this year, despite all the doubts. They hang around more than you'd like, and with how WVU struggled on defense last week, don't be surprised if this is another shootout. I think the rushing duo of Michael Hawkins Jr. and Cam Cook will be too much in the end, Mountaineers bounce back 34-28.
Michigan at Minnesota (Battle for the Little Brown Jug)
The Wolverines and the Gophers meet in the Twin Cities with a Little Brown Jug on the line. The oldest rivalry trophy in college football is the prize for this game, and Minnesota has a chance to start 2-0 in BIG 10 play while knocking Michigan down to 0-2. The Wolverines got Iowa'd last week, dominating the game in every category, but losing at the last moment due to some boneheaded plays that somehow give Iowa the victory. Bryce Underwood has really underperformed this year, and Minnesota's defense was giving Washington headaches all last week. Gopher QB Drake Lindsey played very well last week, but has been known to have some drop off games from time to time. I don't think either team is very good this year, but I think Michigan will bounce back in this one. Not sure the blood war paint will work for PJ Fleck in this game. Wolverines beat the Gophers 28-17.
#5 Ohio State at #14 Iowa
College Gameday heads to Iowa City for the first time in 20 years as the Hawkeyes host the Buckeyes. Iowa's defense is tremendous as always, but their offense is still nothing to shake a stick at. Ohio State really just needs to throw deep to Jeremiah Smith because as good as Iowa's defense is, no one can cover this man. The Iowa offense won't be able to keep pace with him alone, especially after giving up over 100 yards to 2 receivers from Michigan last week. Iowa will go 8-4 at worst this season and win some more games by doing nothing, but not this one. You've got to do something to beat Ohio State, otherwise they crush you 34-10.
#8 Florida at #25 Missouri
The Tigers should not be ranked, but the SEC needs to have ranked wins for CFP metrics. Either way, I think Florida runs away with this game. John Sumrall is quickly showing why he was a coveted hire as the Gators dropped over half a hundred against Ole Miss last week. Running Back Jaden Baugh has been torching the grass this season, rushing for 600 yards and 11 TDs. Mizzou can put up points with Austin Simmons, but I don’t think it’ll be enough to hang with the Gators. Florida chomps 45-24.
Auburn at #17 Tennessee
The Tigers travel to Rocky Top as Tennessee looks to bounce back from their loss to Texas. Auburn still has yet to fully figure out their identity this season, but the defense is starting to take shape. Tennessee's defense was impressive against Texas, holding the longhorns to just 262 yards and forcing a couple of turnovers. Unfortunately their offense was stuck in the mud for most the game as Freshman QB Faizon Brandon was constantly under pressure. The Vols O-line has been a point of concern, and it showed giving up 10 sacks to the Longhorns. I imagine they'll get back to the run game and feeding Desean Bishop, so give me Tennessee to run it back to the win column on Rocky Top. Vols win this one 27-17 over Auburn.
Oregon State at Colorado State
The Beavers travel to Fort Collins as they take on the Rams in a new look PAC-12 matchup. The Rams couldn't get a stop on UTSA last week, falling short in the shootout 59-45. I think they're still a very talented team, and Jim Mora will get them back on the winning track, but don't sleep on my Beavers. Oregon State's offense ranks 3rd in the nation in passing. Sophomore QB Braden Atkinson has been lighting it up with over 1,400 yards and 11 TDs with just 2 picks. His favorite target is standout Freshman Jesse Legree, averaging more than 25 yards per catch and reeling in 6 TDs so far this season. The Rams will have a tough time stopping Oregon State after giving up 542 yards of offense last week. Oregon State shows they might be the top dog in the PAC-12 with a 45-21 win.
Eastern Michigan at UMass
The Minutemen have their first ever sold out game as they take on Eastern Michigan. Everyone should be buying UMass stock, and keep an eye on them as they run continue to run through the MAC. They're allowing fewer than 13 points per game and are 2nd in the nation with a +10 turnover margin. This is a very fun team to watch, and I expect them to keep rolling this week 34-14.
Wyoming at North Dakota State (Battle of the Basins)
A new rivalry begins and an oil well drill bit is on the line as a trophy with Wyoming and North Dakota State meeting as Mountain West foes for the first time. The Cowboys are coming off an impressive win against Hawaii, winning the Paniolo Trophy. They're 1-1 in rivalry games this season having lost to CSU in week 1. North Dakota State has been impressive this year, and they're so hard to beat at home. Bison win the inaugural Battle of the Basins 35-21.
#10 BYU at TCU
The Cougars come off their BYE week on a road trip to Forth Worth. The Frogs are coming off a loss to Scott Frost and the UCF Knights, and their season has potential to spiral out of control. The Cougars are looking to find themselves in the Big XII Championship, and have a favorable schedule to do so. BYU has not been running the ball very well this season, so look for them to try and get LJ Martin in a groove early. TCU will try to slow things down, but I like BYU to get the road win 31-24.
Cincy at Arizona
The Bearcats and the Wildcats meet in the dessert. Cincy is looking to build off their big win against K-State while Arizona wants to get back in the Big XII mix. Arizona struggled with Wazzu last week, but pulled out a 10 point victory. Cincy really surprised me last week, but a late night game in the dessert isn't easy. I'm still a big fan of Noah Fafita, so give me Arizona to win at home 33-24.
#4 Miami at Clemson
The Hurricanes travel to Death Valley as Clemson looks to change the narrative and knock off a top rated team. The Tigers have not looked great this season, and now have to somehow contain a high-powered offense that is averaging over 50 points per game. Miami QB Darian Mensah has more TD passes than incompletions this season, but the Hurricanes have yet to play any significant competition. Clemson has not looked great this year and their defense was shredded by LSU in the opener. It would take a lot for the upset, but Miami looks like they're on a war path this season. Hurricane Wideout Malachi Toney has been sensational and I don't believe Clemson can keep pace. Hurricanes beat the Tigers 38-17.
Washington at #18 USC
Both the Trojans and the Huskies need a bounce back win, so a late night BIG 10 after dark game is just the thing. Washington has not looked good this season, struggling in each game and having to fight back last week just to make the score look respectable against Minnesota. Demond Williams Jr. has been extremely unimpressive so far this season, and he does not have a lot of weapons around him. USC had their chances against Oregon, but fell short and it's hard to see if Lincoln Riley will every get this team over the hump. Jayden Maiava is still putting up impressive stats, but against Oregon his completion percentage dropped into the 50s. I think the talent on USC is better, but we'll see if they can get back in the playoff picture. Trojans beat the Huskies 38-21.
Maryland at Nebraska
The Huskers host the Terps as Maryland comes into Lincoln after a 54-3 beat down at the hands of UCLA. I would love to see Nebraska hang half a hundred on Maryland, but the Husker run game will need to get back in order to make that happen. I think Nebraska's offense has a lot of opportunity to put up points in this game, so we'll see if Colandrea can keep his hot streak in play. Defensively, the Blackshirts need to keep contain on QB Malik Washington and WR Chris Durr Jr. They are the two big playmakers for the Terps and last year Washington put up 249 yards and a TD on the Huskers while evading all the pass rush. He's a dangerous playmaker, especially outside the pocket, but nothing the defense can't handle. Nebraska's defense has looked very impressive through the first part of the season. They should shut down Maryland fairly well in this game, hopefully creating more turnovers. Nebraska wins 38-17.
Quick Hit Predictions:
Navy at Air Force - The Falcons and Midshipmen meet for their annual rivalry game. Air Force has looked much improved this year while Navy’s defense is struggling. Always a fun one, but let’s go with Air Force 24-21.
Michigan State at Wisconsin - The Spartans are extremely banged up and lost their best player in Cam Edwards to injury for the season. On Wisconsin as Luke Fickell starts to cool his seat 27-17.
Cal at UNLV - Neither team has looked impressive through the first part of this season, but I still believe in JKS. UNLV has the better coach though, and playing at home is a big advantage. Toss up game but I like Cal better. Golden Bears over the Rebels 27-24.
Virginia at Florida State - The Cavs and the 'Noles are coming off cupcake wins, so confidence should be high in this one. Both teams stumbled early on, so its hard to know what to expect. FSU has been able to put up some points and they held down the SMU offense and Bama for a half. The Cavs have a great run game though and I think Tony Elliot will have them ready. Virginia 31, Florida State 24.
#24 Kentucky at South Carolina - Shane Beamer’s seat is starting to heat up after a blowout loss to Alabama in which his star defensive end punched an opposing player and deliberately ignored a coaches order to come off the field during the game. Kentucky is much more stable and Kenny Minchey has this offense moving. Wildcats 34-21.
Arkansas at Texas A&M (Southwest Classic) - Both of these teams could be looking at a long and frustrating season, but a win in the Southwest Classic would make it a little better. Arkansas has a way to go and I’m sure Marcel Reed will give them extra chances, but talent wins out for A&M 31-21.
Texas State at San Diego State - The Bobcats have their first PAC-12 conference game and travel to San Diego State to take on the Aztecs. SDSU always has a tough defense, but their offense is usually stuck in the mud. Texas State has a dynamic offense and I say they get their first PAC-12 win 30-20 over the Aztecs.
Thank you for reading all my Week 5 Predictions and as always, be sure to tune into my show Inside Heart Football for your in-depth look at the Heart of America Athletic Conference Football games. Enjoy your College Football Saturday and GO BIG RED!
#CFBKnowItAll🏈🧠
Alex Fernando
No comments:
Post a Comment