Welcome to Week 9 of College Football friends and with a full day of games on Halloween, you know we've got some upsets on the way. It's spooky season, especially for top ranked teams as we've had a top 2 team lose in 3 consecutive weeks. This post will highlight all of the big games to watch this weekend along with my analysis and prediction. Thanks for reading along each week and be sure to share with another football friend. Let's see what Halloween Football brings!
Week 8 Thoughts:
- This season is impossible to predict and impossible to know who is really a dominant team. I LOVE IT!
- Scott Frost and UCF upset #2 BYU which means he got a ranked with at UCF before Matt Rhule at Nebraska. Somehow we lost the bye week.
- Bad year to be a top ranked team, lots of parity across the sport.
- Statement wins by Texas & Utah, both teams proved me wrong but are still flawed.
- New Mexico building toward a CFP appearance, don't sleep on the Lobos!
- Big XII race is wide open, don't be surprised if Arizona steps into the spotlight.
- Not sure how Minnesota flipped the script and had the Hawkeyes making mistakes, but I'm all for it. Gophers are holding the Floyd of Rosedale, Paul Bunyan's Axe and the Little Brown Jug (also the $5 Bits of Broken Chair Trophy unfortunately) all at the same time for the first time since 1978. Impressive!
- Classic Lincoln Riley and USC. Had a road to the playoffs in front of them and turned left off a cliff.
- Baylor's Dave Aranda, NC State's Dave Doeren and Sam Houston's Phil Longo join Mike Locksley on the mid-season fired coaches list.
Week 8 Record: 10 - 12
Overall Record: 122 - 77
Week 9 Predictions:
#22 Arizona at #13 Texas Tech
The Wildcats are out to prove they're a legitimate threat in the Big XII, so knocking off the reigning conference champs would be a good way to show it. Texas Tech is coming off a beatdown at Cincy last week, allowing 427 total yards including 255 on the ground. They were pushed around and the offense couldn't move anywhere. Now they come home to face a dangerous Arizona team with a veteran quarterback and stout defense. Starting with Noah Fafita, the Senior QB is one of the best in the nation at picking apart defenses. He currently owns the 8th best quarterback rating in the nation and is extremely careful with the ball, throwing just 4 picks so far this year. Texas Tech has not been getting the amount of pressure they did last year, and Fafita will pick you apart with 74.2% completion rating, good enough for #2 nationally. On the other side of the ball, Texas Tech can move between the 20s, but scoring in the red zone has become a serious problem. Combine the Red Raiders' 89th ranked red zone offense against Arizona's 5th ranked red zone defense and you've got an upset brewing. I like Arizona to make a statement here, 31-20 Wildcats win.
#25 Wisconsin at Iowa (Battle for the Heartland Trophy)
A bronze bull is on the line as Wisconsin and Iowa meet for the 100th time. It's been a tight series with Wisconsin holding the edge 49-48-2, but Iowa has won the last 4 meetings. This year's matchup looks to be much more like the classic BIG 10 West battles from the mid 2010s, so I would look at taking the under. Both defenses have been extremely tough this year, currently sitting at 13 and 14 in the nation for total defense with Wisconsin ahead again. The offenses are a different story, averaging 28 and 27 points per game with Iowa leading that category. The Hawkeyes are reinserting Hank Brown in to the QB1 role after a disastrous performance last week against Minnesota from Jeremy Hecklinski, featuring 4 Iowa turnovers. Wisconsin looked like the Badgers of old against USC last week, but something about Iowa at home just gives me the creeps. Would love to see Wisconsin beat Iowa, but that also gives Luke Fickell an Iowa win before Matt Rhule which doesn't help me much either. I say the Hawkeyes bounce back, but it will have to be with defense or special teams as they also lost their star running back Kamari Moulton for the rest of the season. Hawkeyes 20, Badgers 14.
Boston College at Duke
While neither one of these teams will likely be winning the ACC this year, both teams have proven to be frisky when looking for upsets. They're pinned against each other for this week, and while I thought Duke was a dark horse in the conference just a few weeks ago, they've quickly proven me wrong by losing back to back games against Georgia Tech and North Carolina. The Eagles of Boston College have been much better than anticipated this year, leaning on Junior QB Mason Mckenzie. He's thrown for over 1,300 yards with 8 TDs, but does have 7 picks. He's also the leading rusher with 614 yards and 5 more TDs. We'll see if he can keep pace with Duke running back Nate Sheppard's 875 yards and 9 TDs in this one. I've picked Duke a few times and they've let me down this year, I'll take them one more time at home, but will not be surprised with a BC upset. Blue Devils beat the Eagles 27-21.
Auburn at #12 Ole Miss
The Rebels couldn't quite complete the comeback against Texas, but this offense proved it won't stay down for long. Auburn's defense has been hot and cold this season, especially after giving up over 550 yards to LSU last week. Byrum Brown continues to be difficult to tackle, but so is Trinidad Cambliss and I think he'll have the Rebels' offense moving. Ole Miss 34, Auburn 21.
#17 Florida vs #3 Georgia (World's Largest *Indoor Cocktail Party)
The World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party has been moved indoors to Atlanta while the Jaguars stadium in Jacksonville is under renovations. Georgia gets a bit more home field advantage with this game being played at the Mercedes Benz Dome, but Florida has already taken down a couple of other top teams this season. The Dawgs have been sitting on the Auburn loss for two weeks though, and I think they're going to come out with an edge. Florida still doesn't have the defense to keep an opponent like Georgia down, but the Gators may find a way to put some points up on their own. Georgia flexes 38-20 in the win.
Minnesota at #4 Indiana
The Gophers head to Bloomington to take on the Hoosiers with college Gameday in attendance. Neither offense looked great last week, but the defenses were solid. I wouldn't expect a lof of fireworks in this one, but it will be a hard-nosed BIG 10 game. The Hoosiers defense is suffocating, allowing just 12 points per game, ranking 2nd in the nation. Minnesota QB Drake Lindsey is what drives this offense, and so his protection is key. Minnesota has allowed just 7 sacks all season, but the Hoosier pass rush is next level. Indiana's offense has struggled as of late, especially with QB Josh Hoover banged up. If Minnesota mucks this one up, PJ Fleck could be primed for quite the upset. However, I don't think they'll be able to move against Indiana's brick wall of a defense. Gophers cover but don't win 27-14.
#20 Northwestern at Oregon
One of our ranked teams on the road this weekend sets the stage for an interesting game. Oregon's championship hopes are completely crushed after getting worked by Illinois, and QB Dante Moore has shut it down for the year. The Ducks are left with Dylan Raiola and Brock Thomas, which doesn't seem to be getting them far. Both teams will look to run the ball, and former Oregon head Coach Chip Kelley will now be calling plays to take down the Ducks as the Northwestern's OC. Aidon Chiles fits so well in this systm, throwing for over 1,600 yards and 12 TDs with just 1 pick on the year. He's taking care of the ball and letting his backs get established with creative run designs. Oregon's strength still lies with the defense's front seven, who is allowing just 3.6 yards per carry. Northwestern has a stable to talented backs, and I think they use the ground game to pull the road upset. Northwesetern wtih a big win out West 27-17.
#6 Utah at Cincy
Obvious let down spot for both teams, but who will let down more? Cincy upset Texas Tech at home last week while Utah defended their turf against Houston. The Bearcats and the Utes both have rugged rushing attacks, ranking 8th and 12th in the nation respectively. This is much more of an even matched game when you go through the stat sheet, but I'll give Utah the edge with Devon Dampier. This Utes team has flaws, but Dampier can cover some of them up in this game. Utah 28, Cincy 14.
Virginia at #14 Wake Forest
The Demon Deacons are slowly climbing in the rankings, and with the first CFP rankings following this weekend, they'll want to keep on winning. The quarterback battle in this game features Beau Pribula with Virginia and Gio Lopez with Wake. Pribula brings in a little more of a running threat, but he's done well in the passing game this season, throwing for over 1,300 yards with 13 TDs and just 2 picks. Lopez has nearly 2,000 yards with 17 TDs and just 1 pick. They both take great care of the football, so any takeaways these defenses can get are extremely valuable. Virginia has been up and down this year, but Wake Forest's only slip up is an early season loss to Miami. Demon Decons are fresh off a bye and I think they handle business to move up the ranks again. Wake Forest 34, Virginia 17.
New Mexico at San Jose State
The Lobos are in heavy contention for that G6 bid as I mentioned above, but a let down spot on the road against San Jose State is a dangerous one. The Spartans won this game last year 35-28 which was a contributing factor in keeping New Mexico out of the Mountain West Championship in their 3-way tie at the top. Head Coach Jason Eck quickly reminded his team about that after their big win against NDSU last weekend. The New Mexico defense is phenomenal though, and teams are struggling to do anything against them. They rank 1st nationally in scoring defense, 5th in total defense and 1st in turnover margin. Offensively they'll need to be careful of the Spartan pass rush, because San Jose State 29 sacks this season, ranking 4th in the nation. Look for the Lobos to lean on that defense and senior running back Scottre Humphrey who's averaging 4.8 yards per carry and has 9 touchdowns on the year. New Mexico is still my G6 pick for the playoffs, so I say the Lobos handle the tough road game 24-10.
South Carolina at Oklahoma
The Gamecocks have new life after the bye with knocking off Tennessee, but now they travel to the Palace on the Prairie to take on the Sooners. Oklahoma's offense is still abysmal, but that defense is tough to move on. LaNorris Sellers is getting back to form, and his gritty run for the game-winning touchdown shows the lack of quit in this South Carolina team. I'm anxious to see what their defense mixes in against Oklahoma's offense, because they've scored just 4 offensive touchdowns in the past 3 weeks. They're 2-1 in those games, but I'm not sure John Mateer is ready for the South Carolina pass rush. They've got 18 sacks so far this season and Dylan Stewart is always looking for more. I trusted Oklahoma too many times and they failed me this season. Give me South Carolina to win 20-17.
#24 Oklahoma State at Iowa State
Full tilt Halloween matchup as the Pokes are wearing all Orange with skeleton cleats and the Cyclones are in full blackout uniforms. Both teams have been frisky all season with their new head coaches and Oklahoma State is still in the mix with a chaotic Big XII race. They've got just 1 conference loss and with Texas Tech coming to Stillwater in a few weeks, their schedule lines up well to work their way toward the conference championship game. Transfer quarterback Drew Mestemaker has translated his game well to the Big XII, throwing for over 2,300 yards with 20 TDs this season and 6 picks. Iowa State's offense was stomped by Arizona last week, but they should be able to move the ball on Oklahoma State. This is a big game if the Pokes want to keep pace, but spooky things happen in Ames. I don't know if they'll have enough firepower to pull the upset, but they'll hang around for a while and Oklahoma State will need some big plays to pull away. Give me the Pokes in a Halloween win 38-28.
Clemson at Florida State
A decade ago, this would've been one of the biggest games of the season, College Gameday would've been there, and we wouldn't question the primetime slot. This year, it's hard not to give this game a side-eye look. Both teams have really fallen off, and the quality of football is questionable at best. Clemson's offense has been a disaster this season, ranking 116th in total offense and 113th in scoring. Florida State has shown flashes, and their team has talent, but they've been unable to finish out games on the right side of the scoreboard. They gave up double digit leads to Louisville and Alabama, then fell short (due to a questionable holding penalty and a near Hail Mary) to upsetting Miami. Their offense has shown they can score in bunches though, so give me the Seminoles at home with Ashton Daniels in a strong performance. Florida State 27, Clemson 21.
#1 Miami at North Carolina
Playing as the #1 ranked team on the road has not been easy this season, and with Notre Dame one week away, this is a potential let down game. The Hurricanes always seem to have that one game where they stumble and put themselves in jeopardy in the ACC race. Darian Mensah and Malachi Toney have been unstoppable with 952 yards and 11 touchdowns on 66 catches so far this season between them. North Carolina's defense is improved and will look to slow them down. They need to force some turnovers, but the Miami defense has been vulnerable. If they get an extra possession or two, don't be surprised if Miami gives up some points. I like Miami to stay steady here, Darian Mensah has been too dominant tossing the pigskin this season. Hurricanes beat the Tar Heels 36-24.
#23 Missouri at Arkansas (Battle Line Trophy)
Another ranked team on the road and this time we've got a trophy on the line! The Missouri-Arkansas rivalry isn't the most heated, but with Ryan Silverfield trying to establish his new culture, a win here would do wonders for his reputation with the fan base. Junior QB KJ Jackson has shown some flashes this season, and the Mizzou defense has been hot and cold. The big storyline of the day is Tiger running back Ahmad Hardy returning to the field for the first time this season. Hardy suffered a gunshot wound in the offseason, and the Mizzou running back has been working to get healthy enough to play again. He was one of the best backs in the nation last year, and with Austin Simmons at QB, he'll have even more room to operate. Give me the Tigers to win the Battle Line over Arkansas 33-21.
Army at Memphis
A sneaky important game in the American as the Black Knights travel to take on Memphis. If you're betting, I would certainly take the over as these defenses have been giving up points in bunches the last few weeks. Very different styles collide as the Black Knights bring their triple option attack led by Senior QB Cale Hellums. He's got 16 rushing touchdowns with another 3 through the air. Junior QB Marcus Stokes for the Tigers has a different approach to scoring, throwing for over 2,000 yards and 21 TDs this season. This is going to be a shootout, but I like the Black Knights to control things on the ground in the 4th quarter. Army 35, Memphis 31.
Oregon State at Fresno State
The most electric team in football has a tricky road game against Fresno State tonight. Late night kick and the Fresno fanbase is going with a blackout as the Bulldogs have some badass helmets planned. The spooky tactics won't work against the Beavers though, this team is executing on another level this season. JaMarcus Sheppard has things rolling quickly in Corvallis and they've got their eye on that PAC-12 title and the playoffs as well. Star wideout Jesse Legree re-signed over the bye week with the Beavers, so expect him to have another big night. Fresno's defense hasn't faced an offense like this, and despite Oregon State's defensive struggles at times, I don't think the Bulldogs will keep pace. Oregon State wins in style on the road in a tough environment 38-21.
#2 Ohio State at USC
Primetime on NBC has become USC's main TV spot, and last week it did not go well. They were stuffed into a bag and beaten down by the Badgers, now they return home to welcome the #2 Buckeyes to the Coliseum. Jaiden Maiava had a very uncharacteristic 2 interception game against the Badgers, and he was constantly under pressure with 5 sacks by Wisconsin. Ohio State has to navigate this game, and the remainder of the season, without their starting quarterback Julian Sayin. Jeremiah Smith is still on the field though, and if you throw it anywhere near him it will be caught. USC's defense under Gary Patterson has not panned out, but this is a must win game if Lincoln Riley and the Trojans want a shot at the playoff. I had them as a Playoff team, I though they would turn the corner this year. Ranked team on the road is not easy and we need a fun upset for the night. Give me the Trojans one more time, beating the Buckeyes to make things interesting 31-28.
Washington at Nebraska
Halloween in Memorial Stadium means blackout conditions as the Huskers host the Huskies. Washington wearing all whites to try and make a bright spot in the darkness that awaits. The Blackshirts logo is at mid-field and the Huskers have all black uniforms with a script "Huskers" in red on the helmet. Fighting against history, Nebraska is 0-5 all-time wearing black uniforms, but today of all days is perfect to break the curse. Both teams come in a bit banged up and missing some key pieces. Washington QB Demond Williams is likely to play, giving the Huskies a much needed boost on offense. He's struggled a bit this year, but his dual-threat ability always keeps plays alive. Nebraska re-signed Anthony Colandrea yesterday, meaning he better have a breakout game. The Husker offense has been stuck in the mud the last few weeks, struggling especially to run the ball against the BIG 10 defenses. Colandrea has been the leading rusher in 3 of the last 4 for Nebraska, so supporting him from the backfield will be crucial. The Huskies are a very middle of the road defense this season, but with both teams coming off a bye, they've had an extra week to scheme up against Nebraska. The stadium atmosphere is going to be electric and I think the Blackshirts will make some key plays and turnovers to flip this script. Give the Huskers a short field and keep the crowd on your side. Nebraska's offense wakes up a bit and Colandrea leads them to a 31-21 win. GO BIG RED!
Quick Hit Predictions:
#5 Notre Dame at Navy - A traditional rivalry that dates back to World War II. Navy can sometimes give headaches for the Irish, but Marcus Freeman doesn't mess around much with them. Irish win 35-7.
#19 SMU at Syracuse - Ranked Ponies on the road with a sneaky Syracuse team. Kevin Jennings has the offense back in gear, look for him to have a big afternoon. SMU handles business 37-21.
Kansas State at Colorado - Not entirely sure how Colorado is favored here, but vibes are bad for both squads. I like Colin Klein better than Deion though, so I'll go with K-State despite them making me look like a fool week in and week out. Wildcats over the Buffs 31-27.
Stanford at Louisville - The Cardinal (color) have put a good looking offense together the last few weeks, but cross country travel has never been good for them. The Cardinals (birds) should put up some points here and get their offense moving after the bye. Louisville 38, Stanford 17.
Purdue at Penn State - I really don't know what to expect from either of these teams. Big opportunity for Penn State to get things back on track, but you don't want to mess with the Spooky Train on Halloween. I think Purdue pulls an upset on the way to bowl eligibility. Spooky Train 27, Nittany Lions 21.
Arizona State at #8 BYU - Cougars in a get right spot after stumbling last week. Bear Bachmeier gets this team back on track with some downfield passes to Glasker and Kasper. BYU beats ASU 35-13.
Mississippi State at #11 Texas - The Bulldogs will be without QB Kamario Taylor for the rest of the season and Texas is getting back in a groove. Hook 'Em 42-10.
Texas State at #20 Boise State - Sneaky PAC-12 game late night in Boise, don't sleep on the Texas State Bobcats. Exciting QB battle between Brad Jackson (TXST) and Maddux Madsen (BSU), so we should see quite a few points on the scoreboard. Both offense are complimented well with the run game and this is just an authentic football game to watch. Give me the Broncos at home in a thriller 38-35.
Thank you for reading my Week 9 Predictions post, and don't forget to watch Week 9 of Inside Heart Football. This is my weekly show for the Heart of America Athletic Conference covering all the games across the Heart and highlighting our Clash of the Week. Check out the best conference in NAIA Football with the link. Have a Happy Halloween and a great gameday. GO BIG RED!
#CFBKnowItAll🏈🧠
Alex Fernando
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