Welcome to one of the biggest weeks of the season football friends, Week 7 is loaded with some great games across the nation. I'll give you a full breakdown of what to expect this weekend and some storylines to watch as we move into the back half of the season. I'll (begrudgingly) give my thoughts on the Huskers' loss to Indiana and what else I took from Week 6 of College Football. We're only half way through the season, but it's been a wild one thus far.
The Huskers give up an 11-point, 4th quarter lead to the Hoosiers as Indiana comes back to win 20-17 in Memorial Stadium. Nebraska dominated the stat sheet, but gave up a few big pass plays late in the game, once again snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. The Huskers are now 0-31 against ranked opponents since 2016 and this one felt a little more painful than normal. I've got my GOOD, EXPECTED and BAD breakdown below.
GOOD - Third down defense. The Blackshirts understood the assignment for most of the game and suffocated a very talented Indiana offense. Especially on third down, the defense made their presence felt. Holding the Hoosiers to just 1 of 10 on the money down, Nebraska's 3rd down defense currently ranks at the top of the national standings with opponents converting under 20%. This is a phenomenal number and I've got to tip my cap to new defensive coordinator Rob Aurich and the Blackshirts, those are the types of numbers that can win you BIG 10 games more often than not.
EXPECTED - The collapse & Colandrea's panic. I hate to be negative in this sector of the review, but we all knew exactly what was coming in the 4th quarter of that game. I was hoping it would be different, the Colandrea touchdown run was electric and the Huskers had every opportunity to finish this one off the right way. I've seen it too many times over the last decade, Nebraska just knows how to find a way to break our hearts. I'll have more to say in the next category about the coaching, but giving those two big pass plays at the most crucial time is just par for the course. Colandrea played a great game, but his fourth quarter panic throws were tough to watch. It's easy to tell when he's rushing and the throws get off target in a hurry. He nearly killed Kwazi Gilmer due to his high throws, and once he started, he couldn't stop. Colandrea needs to find a way to settle himself when he gets rushed.
BAD - 4th Quarter Coaching. As mentioned above, the entire stat sheet belonged to the Huskers apart from a few big pass plays. The Huskers struggled to move the ball throughout the second half, but the 4th quarter was an absolute coaching disaster for the Huskers. After dominating time of possession throughout the whole game, the decision was made to throw all over the field in the final frame. The run game wasn't anything to write home about, but it was keeping 3rd down manageable and the clock moving. The run game was barely attempted in the 4th quarter, despite having the lead, and a majority of the pass plays were drop backs withe downfield routes. The Huskers' 4th quarter strategy led by Matt Rhule and Dana Holgorsen was not well executed and allowed Curt Cignetti and the Hoosiers to come back and win the game.
Week 6 Thoughts:
- Both Alabama & Georgia showed they're contenders last week, fantastic game.
- Oklahoma exposed a variety of Texas flaws, most notably the lack of big play ability from Arch Manning.
- Jeremiah Smith is playing an entirely different level than anyone else on the field. Just sit back and admire some incredible wide receiver play.
- Kentucky wins back-to-back overtime games by going for 2 in the first overtime after scoring second. Fantastic play design to beat LSU and Will Stein has the Wildcats believing.
- You need to start preparing for UCLA in the College Football Playoff, Bob Chesney has this team primed and ready.
- I still can't tell if Missouri is good or just beating bad teams again, we'll find out this week.
- Houston is about to be a problem in the Big XII, the next couple games are tough, but a favorable schedule after that.
- Oregon State is still the most electric team in the nation, you need to watch the Beavers.
- Bowl bound Boilermakers, you heard it here first. Even with the loss last night.
Week 6 Results: 13 - 10
Overall Results: 94 - 57
Week 7 Predictions:
#4 Ohio State at #5 Indiana
The BIG 10 game of the week features a rematch of last year's conference championship at high noon in Bloomington. The Buckeyes and the Hoosiers meet for a top 5 matchup in the biggest game ever at Indiana's Memorial Stadium. The Buckeyes main strategy is to throw it to Jeremiah Smith and let him beat everyone. It's proven to be a pretty good plan this season, but they will likely need to be a bit more creative against the Hoosiers' defense. Indiana loves to generate a pass rush with just 4 defenders, leaving 7 others in coverage. They rank 3rd in sacks with 20 so far this season, and will look to make Julian Sayin uncomfortable in the pocket. Ohio State has to slow down the Indiana offense which has playmakers all across the field. Wideouts Nick Marsh and Charlie Becker catch just about everything near them, and transfer QB Josh Hoover doesn't miss often. With the complimentary run game and upgraded protection, he's fixed his turnover problems and has this team primed for another big run. Ohio State already has a loss, so this is a big game for them. I would love to see Indiana have a breakout game, but I think the Buckeyes may have a trick up their sleeve. Or Jeremiah Smith will just be insane, either way I'll take Ohio State in a close one. Buckeyes 30, Hoosiers 28.
Florida at #7 Texas
Both the Gators and the Longhorns are trending down after last week. Florida is falling apart quickly after vaulting into the rankings for beating Ole Miss a few weeks ago. Their defense has been dismantled for 83 points over the past two weeks and with injuries to their QB, this could be tough sledding. They pulled the upset last year, but I think the Texas defense might be too much. The real question is if Arch will start putting up big numbers. Texas needs to in order to have some style points to look at later this season. Longhorns 38, Gators 14.
#16 Mississippi State at #22 LSU
The Bulldogs started the season hot, but rugged SEC play is looking to take its toll. After the beat down from Alabama, star QB Kamario Taylor is still banged up and unlikely to play against the Tigers. LSU has a number of flaws, but playing at home in Death Valley can certainly help with a few of those. Offensively, Lane Kiffin needs to get this team in order. The wideouts are practically non-existent, and while Sophomore RB Dilin Jones has been effective, he can't carry the full offense. If Taylor ends up playing, Bulldogs have a chance, but I think the Tigers bounce back with a 38-20 win.
Virginia at #24 SMU
The Cavaliers season has been rocky, especially with the big loss to FSU a couple weeks ago. SMU has been very quietly hanging in the back of the top 25, primarily due to their performances against lesser opponents. They're coming off a bye week and I expect Kevin Jennings to start showing some of the Heisman flashes we've seen over the last couple of years. Pony up for a big win in Dallas 34-21.
#25 Northwestern at Michigan State
The Wildcats travel to Spartan Stadium to take on their former Head Coach in Pat Fitzgerald. They bring along QB Aidon Chiles, who spend the previous two seasons at Michigan State. Chip Kelley has this Northwestern offense averaging over 35 points per game and nearly 450 total yards. The run game has been extremely effective and although Sparty is a tough team, they're a bit too banged up to keep pace in this one. It will be a hard fought game, but I like Northwestern to move past their former coach with a win 33-24.
Kansas at Kansas State (Sunflower Showdown)
It's been nearly two decades since Kansas has won in this series, but could Saturday be a change in the history books? Kansas State is still finding their rhythm with new head coach Colin Klein, but the Jayhawks seem to have some offense with QB Isiah Marshall. The Sophomore is a bit erratic at times, but can also make some electric plays. A couple of key turnovers and KU could pull the upset. They'll need to contain Wildcat QB Avery Johnson as he loves to break out of the pocket and run, but I've picked K-State the last two games and they've failed me. Rock Chalk for the first Kansas win in the series since 2008!
Georgia State at James Madison
An important game in the Sun Belt East as Georgia State travels to undefeated James Madison. The Dukes had their hands full with Georgia Southern last week, but held on for a 3 point win. Georgia State's lone loss was in a shootout with UCF, but they have otherwise dominated their other games. Both QBs will need to play smart and avoid turnovers, but my player to watch is JMU running back George Pettaway. The senior is averaging nearly 7 yards per carry and has 648 rushing yards and 6 TDs so far this season. Georgia State will have their hands full with him. Dukes beat the Panthers 37-28.
#6 Alabama at #14 Tennessee (3rd Saturday in October)
The Tide roll into Neyland Stadium for their annual clash with the Vols on the third Saturday in October. Fresh Cigars await the winners as these teams look for an SEC win on Rocky Top. I've been out on Tennessee well before the season started, and having watched their disaster of an offense the last couple weeks, hopefully you're starting to see my reasons why. Running back DeSean Bishop is the lone bright spot, but he can't carry it all game, he'll need help. Their defense is legit though, and with some injuries up front, Bama QB Keelon Russell could be in danger of a few sacks. Luckily, he's quite mobile and I think his legs will be the difference maker here. Alabama showed me something against Georgia last week, let's see if they unleash it on Tennessee. Roll Tide on Rocky Top 34-21.
#13 Missouri at #9 Ole Miss
The Austin Simmons Bowl is set as the Tigers travel to Oxford, pitting Austin Simmons against his former team and the QB who replaced him last season. I can't yet decide if either of these teams are truly legit contenders. Both QBs are tremendous talents, but the defenses have been shaky and I'm not sure their opponents through the season thus far have been the best quality. This is a game that will show us a lot, and as much as I love a good revenge story, there were many reasons Trinidad Chambliss kept the job when Austin Simmons comes back. I think he'll put them on display and win a close one at home. Ole Miss 33, Missouri 28.
Florida State at #3 Miami
There's a world that exists where Florida State messes around and wins this game. Miami is known to stumble at random points in the season when no one is looking. This would be the ideal game to upset Miami, especially with Mike Norvell coaching for his job. There is plenty of talent to get the job done for the Seminoles, and Miami's secondary is decimated with injuries. If FSU can score fast and score early, force Miami to win with a comeback, this could get interesting. The Seminoles love to rush the passer and have 18 sacks on the season thus far. Darian Mensah hasn't been under pressure much this season, but look for FSU to make that pocket uncomfortable. Hoping for an upset, but I think Miami pulls away late at home 38-17.
TCU at Baylor
A rivalry renews as the Horned Frogs and Bears clash in Texas. Baylor is very quietly building a solid resume, just mere inches from an perfect record so far this season. Their schedule finishes with a gauntlet, but if they get by TCU without a scratch, their next few should be fairly manageable. All three of TCU's losses this season are by just 1 score, but the broken down offense has not helped fans rally behind this team. A number of them want Sonny Dykes gone and I think Dave Aranda has some statements to make this season. Sic 'em for a Baylor win 27-21.
Wisconsin at #12 UCLA
The Badgers travel to Pasadena as UCLA looks to host a BIG 10 matchup without their starting QB. Nico Iamaleava is likely out for the remainder of the season due to an injury suffered in the Oregon game, but the Bruins won't be phased. Wisconsin has played well on defense this year, but they're going up against the nations' best rushing attack. Wayne Knight is averaging 7.7 yards per carry and I think the Badgers could get pushed around in this game. I'm a big believer in Bob Chesney and the Bruins, UCLA wins at home 36-24.
#15 Kentucky at Oklahoma
Will Stein has this Kentucky team ranked in the top 15 after back-to-back overtime wins against South Carolina and LSU. The Wildcats have battled back in both games and are playing with a lot of confidence. Oklahoma has some confidence coming off the Texas win, and they've still got one of the top defenses in the nation. At the QB position, Kentucky's Kenny Minchey has been playing very well with nearly 1,400 yards with 11 TDs and just 1 pick. Oklahoma's John Mateer has struggled in the early part of the season, but had the Sooners moving in the second half against Texas and was tremendous on that game-winning drive. There are still some tough games on the schedule, but this feels like an Oklahoma team we're forgetting about and they're about to go on a run toward the playoff. Give me the Sooners at home 27-17.
#18 Oklahoma State at #20 Houston
One of my most anticipated games of the day, Oklahoma State at Houston should be a fantastic game to keep your eye on. This may not be the high-powered shootout we're used to in the Big XII, but there will still be plenty of big plays. Starting with the Pokes, they've got a fast paced offense averaging over 70 plays per game, they're looking for points and lots of them. Quarterback Drew Mestemaker has over 1,500 yards with 13 TD but picks. Houston's offense is quite dangerous and has a number of playmakers, but their defense is what you need to watch. They're +4 in the turnover margin on the season and allow fewer than 20 points per game. Once they get a stop on defense, it's a power run game with Re'shaun Sanford II who is averaging over 5 yards per carry. Connor Weigman has been deadly in the red zone, so look for Houston to finish off drive. Cougars with a statement win 31-21.
#21 Wake Forest at Cal
The Demon Deacons are looking to keep pace in the ACC Championship race and have a favorable schedule to do so. They've got a tricky, cross country road trip for a late night game against the Golden Bears. This is a very dangerous spot for Wake, big upset potential. Virginia Tech found this out last week, falling short by 5. Cal QB Jaren-Keawe Sagapolutele missed last week but is expected to start tonight. He's been inconsistent this season, but does provide a spark to this offense. On the other side, you need to keep an eye on the QB-WR duo of Gio Lopez & Carlos Hernandez. The two of them have connected for 720 yards and 4 TDs so far this season. Cal's pass defense is middle of the road, but will be looking for some picks to add to their 7 so far this season. Wake Forest will need to play a clean game, but I think Jake Dickert keeps this team in line for a tough win out West. Demon Deacons 34, Golden Bears 27.
#2 Notre Dame at #8 BYU
The biggest game in BYU history as the #2 Irish come to town. The Cougars are missing star RB LJ Martin, but Quarterback Bear Bachmeier has been solid this season. He will test the Notre Dame defense unlike any team yet this season. The Irish have a few injuries on defense, so look for BYU to attack some of the inexperienced areas on the field. Notre Dame's offense has been lacking some explosive plays, but CJ Carr has been dicing up opposing defenses for 16 TDs and just 1 pick. The BYU defense does not rush the passer very well, but they could dial up some blitzes today. This game will show us a lot about each team, especially since their schedules haven't been very challenging. Playing a night game in Provo gives the Cougars a big boost, and I think they're defense is better than folks think. They've been just outside the Playoff Bubble the last 2 seasons, but I think they burst through this year. BYU pulls the upset on Notre Dame and wins 23-21.
Nebraska at Oregon
Despite Hawaii playing at home, my Huskers have the last kickoff time of the day. My 6 AM flight on Sunday will hit a little different after a 10 PM kick, but we'll be watching no matter what. The Huskers travel to Autzen Stadium and look to go Duck hunting. Oregon looks to have benched Dylan Raiola for this game after his poor performance against UCLA, so Brock Thomas is expected to start. The Ducks' offense has been very lackluster this season, and without Dante Moore the could barely move against UCLA. The Blackshirts have a great opportunity to show they're legit by following up last week with another big performance. Apart from the two big plays, Nebraska's defense performed very well. Oregon will likely have a similar game plan to Indiana, try to establish the run, but look for big plays from their talented wideouts. If Nebraska can stop the run early like they did last week, they'll be able to apply some pressure on the QB. Offensively for the Huskers, Colandrea needs to stay under control. Use his legs to move the pocket and extend drives. Get the ball to your playmakers in space and let them work. This is not a game to throw high or be inaccurate. Oregon's defense already has 8 interceptions on the season, so accuracy is crucial in this game. Their defense hasn't been as good as advertised, but you don't want to give them confidence. Nebraska needs a couple of big plays early to jump on the Ducks and take the crowd out of the game early. The Ducks are more than capable of blowing this game open, so Nebraska cannot unravel. I have to see some significant change in the coaching decisions for me to believe Nebraska will get this win. Matt Rhule has struggled on the road and a late night game on the west coast does not provide a good environment for decision making. The Huskers have enough talent (despite what Dylan Raiola thinks) to win this game, but I don't know if they'll make it happen. Oregon 24, Nebraska 17.
Quick Hit Predictions:
Cincy at West Virginia - Both teams are in desperate need of a bounce back win. Neither defense is very good, so you may want to bet the over. I'll take the Mountaineers with a 36-33 victory.
Auburn at #1 Georgia - Georgia is on a bye next week, so the only chance for Auburn is to catch them unfocused and not paying attention. I doubt Kirby Smart lets that happen, Bulldogs big 38-14.
Arizona State at #10 Texas Tech - The Sun Devils travel to Lubbock after upsetting the Red Raiders in Tempe last year. Neither team has looked great this season, but Tech should handle business here. Wreck 'Em for a 31-21 win.
North Carolina at Duke - The Blue Devils let me down last week and now have a UNC team coming in with rising confidence. Look for a tough defensive battle, but I'm not quite giving up on Duke yet. Blue Devils over the Tar Heels 20-17.
Penn State at Michigan - Neither team has a BIG 10 win yet and neither team has been very impressive this season. It will be up to the QB play in this one, seeing who makes fewer mistakes. I think Michigan's defense is a bit better than Penn State's though, and playing at home always helps. Wolverines over the Nittany Lions 23-20.
UNLV at Air Force - Big battle in the Mountain West as UNLV looks to remain unbeaten in conference play and Air Force looks to insert themselves into the race. Both teams have looked solid this season, but Air Force just lost their star QB for the remainder of the season. Rebels win 28-10.
Washington State at Oregon State - The Beavers are running wild this season, primarily behind the QB-WR connection of Braden Atkinson and Jesse Legree, both leading the nation at their respective positions. Look for more fireworks here in a big win 45-17.
#11 Utah at Colorado - Things are getting bad in Boulder, Utah is about to make them worse. The Utes will look to run all over the Buffs, but more importantly I don't think Colorado will be able to move. Utah 38-10 over Colorado.
New Mexico at Hawaii - Before the season I thought this game may decide who has inside track for the Mountain West title. Now I'm wondering if Hawaii can keep it respectable at home. Lobos big 44-14.
Thanks for reading my Week 7 Predictions and be sure to check out my Week 7 episode of Inside Heart Football for the Heart of America Athletic Conference. I'll be on the call for Peru State vs Mount Mercy today and there's lots of great NAIA games around the Heart to keep an eye on.
#CFBKnowItAll🏈🧠
Alex Fernando
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