CFP National Championship: Michigan vs Washington

    We have reached the pinnacle of the 2023 - 2024 College Football Season, the College Football Playoff National Championship. After two sensational semi-final matchups, we are left with the Wolverines of Michigan and the Huskies of Washington to battle for the crown. This year will feature the first non-SEC Champion since Clemson won in 2019 with Trevor Lawrence as a freshman QB, and will be the first Championship Game to feature two non-SEC Teams since the first CFP National Championship between Ohio State and Oregon in January of 2015 where the Buckeyes won 42-20. 

    Some could event call this a BIG 10 battle as Washington is set to join Michigan in the BIG 10 next season. For now, they are in the PAC-12 and own a 14-0 record along with their conference championship. The Huskies have made a habit of pulling victory out of the flames as they've won 8 games within one score of their opponent. Michigan has looked more dominant throughout the season, but have certainly been challenged more in the last couple months. None more than their overtime semi-final match against the Crimson Tide of Alabama. This squad returned the most production of any team last season for one primary reason, finish the job and win a national title. The Huskies are used to the underdog title, and have been proving doubters wrong all season. Michigan owns the all time series record at 8-5, but the Huskies took the 1992 Title after a 20-point victory in the Rose Bowl. I've got the full break down of the big game below along with my keys for each team to focus on if they want to be crowned champion. Read on for my predictions and enjoy the last day of College Football until next season!

Bowl Record: 24 - 18

College Football Playoff National Championship

#1 Michigan vs #2 Washington

    The Wolverines are one step away from finishing the job after falling short in the semi-finals both of the last two seasons. They conquered Alabama in the Rose Bowl and despite all the drama and distractions this season, have been unwavering week in and week out. They come into the game with the top ranked defense, giving up just 243 yards and 10.2 points per game. In one of their most impressive games of the season, they held the Tide to just 288 total yards and Jalen Milroe to 116 yards passing. Washington's air raid attack is a bit more potent than Bama's, and Michael Penix Jr. is a different type of QB than Jalen Milroe. Penix was phenomenal in the semi-final versus Texas, throwing for 430 yards with 2 touchdowns. His incredible precision on deep passes has ripped defensive secondaries all season long as he leads the nation with 73 passes of 20+ yards and has another 35 passes of 30+ yards. With arguably one of the most talented receiver corps in the past few years as his arsenal, Michigan's defense will be challenged in a way they haven't seen yet this season. Offensively for the Wolverines, they'll ground and pound as usual, setting up the play-action for JJ McCarthy to pick apart the mid to deep zones of the Washington secondary. This will be a fantastic battle to watch how these QBs handle the pressure dialed up by the defensive coordinators.

Michigan Keys to Victory:

1. Find a way to get Michael Penix Jr. on the ground.

    - Michigan has a lot of unique blitz packages and a defensive front that averages nearly 3 sacks per game. However, the Washington O-Line is the best in the country when it comes to keeping their QB clean as they've given up just 11 sacks throughout 14 games. Penix deserves a lot of credit for his vision and ability to climb and move in the pocket while keeping his eyes downfield, but putting pressure on him is the only way to slow down this passing attack.

2. Hold the Huskies on 3rd down.

    - Washington ranks 14th and converts nearly 47% of their 3rd downs. Against Texas they were just 3/11 and 6 of those missed conversions came in the second half. Washington has a habit of taking their foot off the gas when they have a lead, so forcing them out of system gives Michigan the best chance to win, even if they get down early.

3. Mixed rushing attack.

    - The Huskies gave up 180 yards on the ground to Texas and 3 different players for the Longhorns averaged more than 6.5 yards per carry. The Huskies rank 43rd in rush defense, so there's opportunity there for the Wolverines, especially with Blake Corum leading the way. Gash them early and keep that run game pressure on later in the game. Make Washington win this game on defense by having to stop the run game.

Washington Keys to Victory:

1. Get Dillon Johnson space to work.

    - Johnson is good to go for tonight despite suffering a late game injury in the semi-final against Texas. He's been the bell-cow for the Huskies' offense, averaging 5.2 yards per carry and racking up 16 TDs on the ground this season. In order to keep Michigan's defense honest against the run game, he needs to have early success. This is on the o-line. They're great at protection but tonight is more about moving bodies off that line of scrimmage to give Johnson some space to work.

2. Feed your players with space.

    - Having watched this receiver corps over the course of the season, they are not only talented athletes, but hardcore students of the game. Washington's wideouts have been the best group all season because they play smart. They create an incredible amount of space from defenders with quick footwork at the top of their routes, they run 2-3 yards past the sticks on third down to ensure they've got the spot when they come back to catch the ball and they use their bodies to shield the defender away from the ball, resulting in an easy catch where they (and the ball are protected) or a pass interference call because the defense has to go through them. Penix always does a fabulous job of finding the open lanes to throw to, but his precision will be tested tonight more than ever. Look for these receivers to make big plays with the little things like I mentioned.

3. Force Turnovers. Pedal to the metal.

    - This is a game that needs the Washington defense to play out of their minds. They did a phenomenal job early on of shutting down Texas, but got complacent with a two-score lead and slacked off. Credit to Texas for taking shots later in the game, but the Huskies should not have let that game get as close as it did. Michigan's offense (while dominant) is predictable due to their play-action focused nature. The defense needs to stay disciplined to their assignments and be aggressive with their blitzes and breaks on the ball against receivers. Force turnovers and keep Michael Penix Jr. on the field as much as possible to keep him in rhythm. There's no downside to running up the score here. Don't get settled and be aggressive.

    Overall, this was certainly one of the toughest predictions of the season. Michigan pushed Alabama around far more than expected and their secondary play was very tight. Defense is certainly known to win Championships, but in modern college football you need points (I'm ignoring Iowa for obvious reasons). Watching Michael Penix Jr. shred the Longhorn defense and how his receivers create space everywhere on the field along with their perimeter and downfield blocking was amazing. This is one of the more deadly offensive attacks we've seen in the last couple years and I think the Huskies get the job done. Michael Penix Jr. lights it up again and Washington wins the 2024 CFP National Championship 31-28. GO DUBS!

Thank you for reading all my College Football Predictions and notes this season. Your questions, comments and support are all greatly appreciated. Enjoy the game!

#CFBKnowItAll

Alex Fernando

December 29 - January 1 Bowl Games

     We've reached the final weekend of Bowl Games, all leading up to the New Year's Six! This past week has been full of great games, breakout performances and historic moments such as the edible Pop-Tarts Bowl mascot being devoured by the K-State football team following their victory. This post has my predictions of all the final bowl games this weekend along with my College Football Playoff Predictions, enjoy your football watching and Happy New Year celebration!

Bowl Record: 17 - 12

TaxSlayer Gator Bowl

#22 Clemson vs Kentucky

    The Tigers had a big resurgence at the end of the year, going undefeated in November and finishing the season 8-4. The Wildcats struggled late in the season, losing 3 of their last 5, but they did upset rival Louisville in the season finale. Both teams have some players in the portal, but most aren't any going to make a major impact in this game. Despite so many people being down on the Tigers, they finished with the 22nd ranked scoring defense, allowing just 19.9 points per game. The most they gave up in November was 23 to Notre Dame and they average 2.5 sacks per game as a team. The Wildcats have some dynamic playmakers on offense, primarily led through their Senior RB Ray Davis, who averages 5.7 yards per carry and has 13 TDs on the ground this season. Defensively, their challenge will be to get in the face of Tigers QB Cade Klubnik. Tigers defense makes the difference though and Clemson wins 28-17.

Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl

#19 Oregon State vs #16 Notre Dame

    The Beavers were a very fun team to watch this season, but a few close losses along with a season ending beat down to the rival Ducks ended up not being the worst part. This team loses QB DJ Uiagelelei to the Transfer Portal, and lost their alumni Head Coach to Michigan State. Notre Dame lost just 3 tough games to Ohio State, Louisville and Clemson, but their Transfer Portal/Opt-out woes are far greater than the Beavers. Essentially an entire new offense will be taking the field for Marcus Freeman and the Irish as they will be without their QB, RB, multiple wideouts, tight ends and linemen. This always gives a lot of younger players the opportunity to step up and make a name for themselves heading toward next season, but they'll be up against an Oregon State defense that finished with a +7 turnover margin on the season, so ball security will be very important. Sophomore RB, Damien Martinez will likely break loose a few gashes in the run game, but Notre Dame's defense should keep this game to a lower scoring affair. Irish win a tight one down in El Paso 23-17.

Autozone Liberty Bowl

Memphis vs Iowa State

    Iowa State started the season 1-2 with essentially no offense to rely on. They woke up once Big XII Conference play started and actually were in the mix for a bid to the conference championship until a few stumbles against KU and Texas. Regardless, their defense carried them for much of the season and then let the offense begin to fall into place. Memphis was able to win 9 games, primarily in shootouts. If this game becomes high scoring, they may have the firepower to pull away. I think the Cyclones built some big momentum with their snowy win in Farmaggedon, and they win this game to finish with 8 wins on the season 26-21.

Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic

#9 Missouri vs #7 Ohio State

    The Friday nightcap features a really interesting matchup between Missouri and Ohio State. On team has a lot of argument on their talent and abilities for the playoffs, while the other may be one of the biggest surprises from 2023. Ohio State's only blunder is the 6-point loss to Michigan, but they Buckeyes have lost a tremendous amount of talent to the Transfer Portal. A new man will be under center for Ohio State as McCord has left for Syracuse. They do still have Marvin Harrison Jr. to throw to, so Missouri's secondary will have to deal with him one way or another. Looking at the offense of Missouri, they have a gun-slinger and pass-catching duo of their own to attempt to lock down. Brady Cook and Luther Burden III have connected for nearly 1,200 yards this season along with 8 TDs. My X-factor is RB Cody Schrader though, because he rips defenses for an average of 6 yards per carry. The Buckeyes rank 20th in rush defense and held Michigan to just 156 rush yards in the season finale. Mizzou will certainly make this game interesting with a couple of big plays on offense, but I don't think their defense is quite ready for the offensive firepower of the Buckeyes. Ohio State wins the Cotton Bowl 33-24.

Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl

#11 Ole Miss vs #10 Penn State

    High-flying SEC offense versus a rugged BIG 10 defense, what more could you ask for? The Rebels and Nittany Lions reflect each other in their respective conferences, dominating the lower-caliber opponents as expected, but unable to get over the hump and beat the top teams. Neither team has many players leaving in the Portal, which means they are building for a big season next year, and should be at full strength for this game. Both QBs have been sensational this season, combing for 43 passing TDs and just 6 interceptions (5 for Dart and just 1 for Allar). Penn State utilizes a two-headed rushing attack with Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen averaging 4.3 and 5.3 yards per carry respectively. Quinshon Judkins leads the way for Ole Miss as he's racked up 1,052 yards on the ground with 15 rushing TDs. I would love to believe the BIG 10 defense can prevail here, but every time I put my faith in Penn State, I'm let down. Give me the Rebels in a fun Peach Bowl to win 31-28.

TransPerfect Music City Bowl

Auburn vs Maryland

    Maryland will be looking for a new QB after (All-Time BIG 10 Passing Leader) Taulia Tagovailoa has opted-out in hopes of the NFL draft or a potential NCAA waiver for one more season of eligibility. Having watched this team play live in Memorial Stadium against my Huskers, they really didn't have much outside of him. He was sensational at QB and filling his void is more than just a "next man up" scenario. For the Tigers, you really have no idea what to expect. They could play like the team that fell to New Mexico State at home as 26-point favorites, or they could be the team that took Alabama to the wire the following week. I think their defense should be the focal point of this game though, and the Tigers hold the advantage there. Auburn 27, Maryland 14.

Capital One Orange Bowl

#6 Georgia vs #5 Florida State

    The left-out bowl features the two-time reigning champion Bulldogs (who's only blemish is to Bama in the conference championship), and the 13-0, ACC Champion Florida State Seminoles who were left out of the College Football Playoffs despite winning every game on their schedule. To say both of these teams have a statement to make is an understatement. Unfortunately, there are quite a few players opting out of this game, but that doesn't mean the motivation will be missing. This is honestly one of my most anticipated bowl matchups due to the CFP drama. Florida State could easily make the Playoff Committee look like bigger fools if they go in an beat Georgia. Despite Jordan Travis being out with his injury, the Seminole defense was formidable this season, ranking 13th in total defense and 6th in scoring defense. Georgia has been the epitome of consistency apart from their duel with Alabama, and when this offense has been healthy, they easily drop 30+ on opponents. I think Florida State is here to make a statement, so this won't be a total blowout, but I like Georgia to win this game 27-17.

Barstool Sports Arizona Bowl

Toledo vs Wyoming

    The Rockets and Cowboys have been interesting teams to watch this season, causing upsets and playing opponents tough all year long. I like this bowl matchup a lot and after a loss in the Conference Championship, the Rockets have a lot of motivation and a tough defense to back it up. Wyoming fell short in their conference race, but dominated their last two opponents giving up just 15 points combined. Give me the Rockets in a close one behind their rushing attack with Peny Boone. Toledeo 28, Wyoming 21.

ReliaQuest Bowl

Wisconsin vs #13 LSU

    The Badgers were up and down all season and now have to take on the the LSU Tigers with all their offensive firepower. However, with Jayden Daniels opting-out for the NFL Draft, there's a big void Brian Kelly needs to fill in that offense. I really don't know what to make of either of these teams, especially LSU without the Heisman winner at the helm. The Tigers have a lot of other talent on that team though and they should be able to handle Luke Fickell and the Badgers as they still build that new program. LSU wins 34-21.

VRBO Fiesta Bowl

#23 Liberty vs #8 Oregon

    The Flames finish undefeated after the lowest strength of schedule in the nation, but they now take on a Ducks team that was one of the most dominant football programs of 2023 as long as they weren't playing Washington. There's not much to say about this game other than the Ducks are going to run wild and put up a lot of points. Dan Lanning has a lot of big plans fore Oregon and they are going to be on a war path next year. A fun farewell game for Bo Nix and Oregon races past Liberty 45-14.

Cheez-It Citrus Bowl

#17 Iowa vs #21 Tennessee

    We come to yet another game Iowa should not win, but will. Partly because Tennessee has a number of opt-outs including QB Joe Milton, but also because Tennessee is a team that loves to make crucial mistakes on themselves that Iowa can capitalize on. Don't get me wrong, I wish the Huskers could win games like the Hawkeyes, but they are the worst offense in football and simply wait for others to make a boneheaded play and they do a wonderful job of capitalizing. It shouldn't work in modern day football, but they find a way to do it. Hawkeyes beat the Vols 16-10. As usual, bet the under.

Rose Bowl (CFP Semifinal)

#4 Alabama vs #1 Michigan

    The first of our CFP Semifinals features the Crimson Tide against Big Blue. Bama and Michigan square off for a defensive slug fest with everything on the line. You never want to play Alabama in the Playoffs and they're hot right now. But Michigan has been hear for a month about how scared they are and that's a big time motivator. Despite the Jim Harbaugh distractions, this Wolverine squad has always found a way to win. The key stat to watch is if they can get their ground game going. They've averaged 149.8 yards on the ground in their last 4 games, and Alabama gives up just 124.5 rush yards per game. They're not a team that gets bullied very often and Michigan has made a living the last couple seasons on that style of play. J.J. McCarthy has to win this one with his arm, but I think Alabama is too dangerous in this position. Roll Tide as they beat Michigan 31-27.

Allstate Sugar Bowl (CFP Semifinal)

#3 Texas vs #2 Washington

    From a defensive rock fight to a guns-blazing shootout, we have the Sugar Bowl featuring Texas and Washington. While both teams have playmakers on the defensive side of the ball and can certainly bring the boom with some big hits, this game is all about the offense. Michael Penix Jr. and the Huskies lead the nation in passing, while the Longhorns come in scoring 57 and 49 in their last two games. Turnovers are usually the deciding factor in a shootout scenario because it's a great way for opposing teams to steal points. Texas leads that category with +7 while the Huskies are just +1. Sacks are another big factor though, and the Huskies have given up just 11 all year. Michael Penix's ability to escape the pocket helps with that, but Quin Ewers has been hit plenty of times and as a team the Longhorns have given up 26 this season. Look for the Huskies to blitz early and often. The final factor to watch in this game is 3rd down conversions. Washington ranks 10th with a 48.3% conversion rate while the Longhorns rank 68th with 38.5%. Clutch throws and catches will make the difference on third down. If you haven't watched Michael Penix Jr., that's what he's all about. Give me the Huskies in a fantastic 38-33 victory!

Thanks for reading all my bowl predictions and be sure to watch for my post about the College Football Playoffs National Championship coming up. Enjoy the games!

#CFBKnowItAll

Alex Fernando

December 23 - 28 Bowl Games

     Happy Saturday Football Friends! I apologize for the lack of description in this post but due to constant travel along with some personal matters I've elected to just make quick score predictions for this week's games. I'll be sure to have a full analysis and predictions for the New Year's Six and other big bowl games coming up, but I appreciate your understanding as this post is a bit thin. Regardless, I hope you enjoy all the games and have a wonderful Holiday Weekend!

Bowl Record: 5 - 6

76 Birmingham Bowl

Duke 31, Troy 27

Camellia Bowl

Northern Illinois 26, Arkansas State 21

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl

James Madison 23, Air Force 14.

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl

Utah State 34, Georgia State 24

68 Ventures Bowl

South Alabama 38, Eastern Michigan 14

SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl

Utah 30, Northwestern 10

EasyPost Hawai'i Bowl

San Jose State 37, Coastal Carolina 28

Quick Lane Bowl

Minnesota 20, Bowling Green 17

SERVPRO First Responder Bowl

Texas State 24, Rice 20

Guaranteed Rate Bowl

Kansas 27, UNLV 21

Military Bowl Presented by GoBowling.com

Virginia Tech 30, Tulane 22

Duke's Mayo Bowl

West Virginia 31, North Carolina 20

DIRECTV Holiday Bowl

#15 Louisville 35, USC 28

TaxAct Texas Bowl

#20 Oklahoma State 24, Texas A&M 21

Wasabi Fenway Bowl

#24 SMU 37, Boston College 27

Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl

Rutgers 30, Miami 27

Pop-Tarts Bowl

#25 K-State 23, #18 NC State 21

Valero Alamo Bowl

#14 Arizona 38, #12 Oklahoma 34.