Conference Championship Week is upon is and we've got some key games that could determine who's in and who's out of the College Football Playoffs! Teams like Ohio State and Oklahoma will be looking to make a statement and possibly jump into the top 4, while teams like Texas, Washington and Northwestern are fighting for a spot in the New York Six Bowls. This post will have my predictions for all the big games this weekend, so sit back, read on and enjoy some football!
Rivalry Week Prediction Results: 12-6
Overall Prediction Results: 98-73
Northern Illinois vs. Buffalo (MAC Championship)
The Buffalo Bulls have won their first East Division title since 2008, and have their school's first ever 10-win season. They're looking to claim the MAC Championship away from the Huskies of Northern Illinois, who are making their 7th championship appearance in the last 9 years. NIU is a MAC blue-blood, often knocking off Power 5 teams during non-conference play. They've struggled a bit this year, finishing with a 7-5 record and an offense that ranks 125th in the nation. The Huskies average just 19.9 points per game and could have a difficult time slowing down Buffalo's pass rush, as they have 30 recorded sacks on the year. Their defense is solid, giving up just 20.9 points per game, but the Bulls have dropped 40+ 5 times this year, and average 35 per game. Star QB Tyree Jackson has played very well this season, throwing for 2,605 yards with a 25:11 TD to INT ratio and another 7 TDs on the ground. I expect him to have a big game, especially because NIU gives up 237 passing yards per game, and the Bulls should walk out with the trophy. Never count out the Huskies, experience pays dividends, but I like Buffalo as the 2018 MAC Champions.
Louisiana-Lafayette at Appalachian State (Sun Belt Conference Championship)
Short and sweet on this game as the Ragin' Cajuns travel to App State to take on the Mountaineers in the inaugural Sun Belt Championship. The Mountaineers edged out Troy last week to claim the East division title, and will likely have no issues beating Louisiana. The Ragin' Cajuns really struggle on defense, ranking 104th in the nation and giving up nearly 450 yard per game on average. The Mountaineers have a strong offense, scoring 37.3 points per game. Their defense however, that's the difference maker. Appalachian State gives up just 15.4 points per game and just over 275 yards per game on average. They rank 4th in total defense in the nation, so Louisiana-Lafayette will likely struggle to move the ball in this one. Mountaineers win the Sun Belt Championship 40-17.
Stanford at Cal
While not a conference championship game, this is always a great rivalry. Their game was moved due to the air quality last week from all of the forest fires. Stanford has fallen off the map this season, falling to 7-4 after starting 4-0. The Trees struggled to run the ball this year, with Bryce Love battling injuries, making them somewhat one-dimensional. Their air attack was strong, with K.J. Costello throwing for 3,198 yards, 28 TDs and just 11 picks, but the defense was a big issue for this squad. The Cardinal rank 86th in total defense, their worse ranking since 2009. Cal on the other hand has been a tough opponent for everyone this season. The 7-4 Bears have a tough defense that gives up just 21 points per game and an offense lead by Senior Running Back, Patrick Laird. Laird has over 1,000 yards of total offense and 9 TDs on the season, which may not sound like much, but this kid makes the big plays when needed. He's called upon on key third downs and always seems to get the mark. Cal's defense could struggle with Arcega-Whiteside and Stanford's air attack, but I like the Golden Bears at home. They were my "sneaky team" pick in the Pac-12 this season, and they improve to 8 wins with a 26-21 victory over Stanford this weekend.
Memphis at #8 UCF (American Conference Championship)
A rematch of last year's thriller is set to take place in Orlando on Saturday, but there may be fewer fireworks than last year's 62-55 double OT game. The Knights are riding a national-best 23 game win streak, but will be without star QB McKenzie Milton as they push for number 24. The Hawaii-native suffered a gruesome knee injury in their win over USF last week, and was taken off the field on a stretcher and immediately to a hospital. Milton is the spark of this team, so they will need to rely heavily on their ground game to shoulder the load. Luckily for the Knights, they have a stable of backs to carry the ball. Greg McCrae is averaging 9 yards per carry and has 8 TDs on the ground this season. The Tigers' defense gives up an average of 154 on the ground per game, so I'll be watching that stat closely. As for Memphis, Junior RB Darrell Henderson ranks 2nd in the nation with 1,699 yards and 19 TDs, UCF will need to shut him down in order to win. Offensively, these teams are evenly matched yet again. Both average around 530 yards of offense per game and 43 points per game. The defenses will be tested in this game, but winning the turnover battle is crucial in this one. The Knights are +16 on the season while the Tigers are just +2. Even without McKenzie Milton, I give the edge to UCF. A lot of people will say the streak stops with Milton, but this team has talent across the board. Knights win their second straight American Conference Championship with a 38-24 victory over the Tigers.
#25 Fresno State at #22 Boise State (Mountain West Conference Championship)
For the second straight year, Fresno State must travel to their rival Boise State and fight for the Mountain West Conference Championship on the Blue Turf. The Bulldogs lost once already on the Smurf Turf this year, falling to the Broncos by 7 in early November. This game will feature two fabulous Quarterbacks who love to air it out. Marcus McMaryion (FS) and Brett Rypien (BS) have both played phenomenally this season, throwing for 3,283 yards and 3,580 yards respectively. McMaryion has a 24:3 TD to INT ratio while Rypien has 29:7. They're both Seniors and would love nothing more than to finish off their careers by beating their rival for the Conference title. Aside from the gunslingers, each team has an extra weapon of their own, for the Broncos, his name is Alexander Mattison. The Junior Running Back has 1,215 yards to go along with 16 TDs on the season. He averages nearly 5 yards per carry and drives this Boise State offense, helping them rank 12th in the nation for time of possession. For the Bulldogs, their extra weapon is a lock-down defense. Fresno State ranks 17th in total defense, giving up just 13.5 points and 321 yards per game on average. They will need to play their best game of the season and stay off the field if they want to win. Now this game presents a dilemma for me, because it challenge two of my most important rules in College Football. 1. You never want to play a team twice, and 2. You should always pick Boise State at home. Last year, Fresno State won the first meeting (in Fresno) but lost the Conference Championship just a week later up in Boise. This year the Bulldogs have already lost on the Blue field, but now travel back again with a vengeance. This is a tough prediction and will likely be an even tougher game, but I'll go with the Broncos. Boise State is just too good on that field and besides, depending on what uniform they're wearing, you probably won't be able to even see them! Boise State wins yet another Mountain West Crown with a 23-20 victory over Fresno State.
#17 Utah vs. #11 Washington (Pac-12 Conference Championship)
The Pac-12 Championship is set to take place in Levi's Stadium as the Utes take on the Huskies. These teams met early in the season, resulting in a 21-7 Washington victory. I would expect a lot of defense in this game, as Utah ranks 15th and Washington ranks 13th in total defense. Both squads give up less than 20 points per game and love to shut down the run. That's going to be the key stat in this game, as both teams love to run the ball. Utah's star Running Back, Zack Moss is done for the year with an injury, so Junior Armand Shyne has taken over, rushing for 276 yards and 3 TDs over the last three weeks. The Huskies have one of the best (and underrated) backs in the nation with Myles Gaskin. I've been watching this kid tear up opposing defenses for the last four years, and I know he's going to be a gem in the NFL draft this spring. Gaskin has over 5,100 career yards and 55 TDs. Ten of those scores came this season as he posted his 4th straight 1,000+ yard season and is averaging 5.1 yards a pop. Utah only gives up 100 yards on the ground per game, but Gaskin will look to break that mark. Just in the month of November, he's rushed for 453 yards and 5 TDs. I think that trend continues tonight and Washington wins the Pac-12 Championship 27-14 over the Utes.
#2 Clemson vs. Pitt (ACC Conference Championship)
There's not much to say about this game, Clemson will continue to dominate the ACC for the foreseeable future. Pitt is a tough team, but the Tigers are just too strong. They have 4 potential 1st round picks on their defensive line, a dark horse Heisman-caliber player at Running Back and one stud of a Freshman Quarterback. They are one of the most complete teams in all of college football and probably the only team capable of beating Alabama. Travis Etienne is going to run all over, around and through Pitt's defense, especially since they rank 80th in rush defense. Trevor Lawrence will torch their lowly secondary for about 300 yards and their defensive line will finish this game with more sacks than a paper bag factory. Clemson with a BIG statement win to claim a 5th straight ACC Championship. Tigers 44, Pitt 17.
#14 Texas vs. #5 Oklahoma (Big XII Conference Championship)
A rematch of the Red River Rivalry (I'm still not going to say "Showdown") thriller from early October. Texas walked away with a 48-45 victory and the Horns are looking to play spoiler yet again to the Sooners and their Playoff dreams. Texas is also fighting for a New Year's Six Bowl game, so this (somewhat unnecessary) conference championship game has major implications all around. The Longhorns have been tough all season, and will definitely be a formidable opponent in 2019. Sam Ehlinger has shined in his Sophomore year, throwing for 2,774 yards, 23 TDs and just 4 picks. He's also added another 11 scores on the ground and is the biggest threat to OU's success. Ehilnger is the spark of this Texas offense, but the Wideouts are the backbone. Collin Johnson, Devin Duvernay and Lil'Jordan Humphrey have been phenomenal this season, accounting for 18 TDs combined. They're all Juniors, so Texas will likely have the BEST receiving corps in the nation next season. However, none of this really matters for this game because of two things: 1. They beat OU already this season, and one of my primary rules in CFB is that you never want to play a team twice, and 2. A young man by the name of Kyler Murray. In my humble opinion, Murray is hands-down the best athlete and player in the nation, which is why HE should win the Heisman that they've already handed to Tua. That argument can be saved for another day, but in the first match-up with Texas, Murray accounted for 396 yards and 5 TDs... and that was only his 5th game as a starter. He's going to be absolutely BONKERS in this game and Oklahoma will get revenge (and the Big XII Crown) with a 57-44 win over Texas. Boomer Sooner (I still hate both teams😁).
#21 Northwestern vs. #6 Ohio State (BIG 10 Conference Championship)
The Wildcats have been waiting for a few weeks, but now they're ready to square off against East Division Champ, Ohio State. The Buckeyes throttled Michigan last week, dropping 62 on the nation's top defense last week. They look like the Ohio State of old, dominating both sides of the ball and seemingly scoring at will. Quarterback Dwayne Haskins is doing a damn good job sticking in the Heisman race, as he's thrown for over 4,000 yards and posted a 42:7 TD to INT ratio during the regular season. He's the key to their offense because if he's having an off day, they don't have much to lean on. J.K. Dobbins and Mike Weber have stepped up the ground attack in recent weeks (thanks Nebraska 😒), but this offense still lives with the air attack. This bodes well, as the Wildcat's secondary is one of the weaker parts of their team, giving up nearly 240 yards per game through the air. Northwestern still ranks 32nd in total defense, 30 spots ahead of the Buckeyes, and Pat Fisher knows how to get his team to step up in big moments. Senior QB Clayton Thorson hasn't had the best season, but is never someone you want to leave on the field for very long. He'll eventually get his, and star wideout Flynn Nagel will help with that. They Buckeyes secondary is also fairly weak, and Thorson is often very smart with this throws. While I'd love to see a Wildcat upset, and they're a team you should never sleep on, I'm not quite sure they'll have it in this one. Freshman Running Back Isaiah Bowser will need a big performance to help lift the Purple Cats up, but I think Urban Meyer's coaching in the big games will be the difference maker. Ohio State wins the BIG 10 38-23.
#1 Alabama vs. #4 Georgia (SEC Conference Championship)
A playoff semi-final is set to take place early as the Tide and the Dawgs square off in Atlanta. Georgia won last year, knocking off Auburn, but fell to Bama in the CFP Championship. They've been waiting for this moment all year to get revenge. Jake Fromm has been stellar, throwing for more than 2,200 yards with a 24:5 TD to INT ratio. The two-headed rushing monster of D'Andre Swift and Elijah Holyfield have combined for 1,858 yards on the ground, 16 TDs and are both averaging just under 7 yards per carry. They'll be running into the brick wall named Bama's defense, giving up just 282 total yards and 13.8 points per game on average. The Tide's defense has gotten better as the year progressed, but they haven't faced an offense quite like Georgia's. The Bulldogs are so incredibly balance, they could walk a tightrope over the Grand Canyon. On the other side, you have the Heisman winner (basically engraved his name already) with Tua Tagovailoa, going against a rugged Georgia defense. Don't get me wrong, Tua is amazing, and he's going to have a big game against Georgia, just as Fromm and crew will have a big day against Bama. I honestly think the offenses of each team will shine more than the defenses, creating a bit of a shootout. Pressure will be key in this game, otherwise both secondaries are going to get torched (still probably will). This is a tough pick because Bama is absolutely amazing, but I picked Georgia to win the SEC and knock Bama out of the Playoffs before the season. So, I could either stick by my pre-season prediction or jump ship and hop on the Bama train (statistically, never a bad decision). However, I am a man of my word and I say Georgia wins the SEC Championship with revenge! I do think Bama will stay in the Playoffs, and I would not be upset seeing a Tigers vs. the Tide round 4. The DAWGS with a shocker down in the ATL with a 30-28 victory over Bama. You heard it here first!
Thank you all for reading my Conference Championship Predictions and enjoy your weekend of football! Big Playoff moves could be in store this weekend, GO BIG RED!
#CFBKnowItAll
Alex Fernando
Friday, November 30, 2018
Tuesday, November 27, 2018
Rivalry Week Reflections
Another Rivalry Week has come and gone ladies and gentlemen, and with it, more chaos is left behind. Hello football readers and welcome to the end of the College Football regular season. I'm not crying, you're crying😭. However, there's still the conference championships and bowl games, so never fear! This post will highlight all the craziness of Rivalry Weekend, what this means for the CFB Playoffs and break down Nebraska's loss to Iowa. Thank you for all the support throughout the season and be sure to tell all your football loving friends where to get the best Husker/College Football info 😁, enjoy!
The Huskers finished the season at 4-8 for the second straight year. This 4-8 season definitely tastes a little better than last year. Scott Frost's first season as head man of the Huskers was full of ups and downs, but I think Husker Nation can all say this team is headed in the right direction with a confidence that has been missing in recent years. I really thought Nebraska was going to pull of the victory at Iowa this past week. The Blackshirts failed to show up, after putting on their best performance just a week ago against Michigan State. This whole team has been up against a steep learning curve this season, but the defense has struggled all year long. Iowa played a solid game, but they almost lost it themselves by throwing the ball so much. Adrian and the offense finished strong, but as we all knew from the beginning, this was a growing year. Read through my break down analysis of the Iowa game below.
GOOD- The GOOD award this week goes to The Man Stan. Stanley Morgan Jr. has been a stellar wideout for the Huskers over the past four years, proving it once again in his final game for the Scarlet and Cream. Against Iowa, Morgan became the first ever Husker receiver to surpass 1,000 yards in a single season. He finished the game with 7 catches for 81 yards, averaging 11.6 yards per catch. I've really enjoyed watching Stanley play, and as a former receiver it's great to see a player like Stanley having such a fantastic career. He leaves Nebraska as the all time leader in catches and yards, with 189 receptions for 2,747 yards and 22 TDs. I credit the Husker offense with the GOOD award as well, racking up 400 total yards and fighting back from a double-digit deficit. Maurice Washington finished with 102 yards receiving and a TD to lead the Huskers. While the offense struggled on third down for much of the game, they fought back in the end, erasing a 15-point deficit to force Iowa's last second field goal. The offense really started clicking during the last half of this season, and I'm excited to see how they do next year. Ozigbo and Morgan will be key losses, but there are a lot of weapons around Martinez, so opposing defenses better be ready.
EXPECTED- The EXPECTED category is how Iowa nearly handed this game back to Nebraska. Specifically with their lack of production on offense. Now I say that with a grain of salt, because the Hawkeyes did have 266 yards rushing, but they easily could've had more. I understand coaches need to mix it up and throw the ball once in a while, but the Hawkeyes offensive line was man-handling the Blackshirts' front 7, pushing them back at least 6 yards on every run play. If I were Ferentz,, I would've ran the ball until they proved they could stop it, Nate Stanley wasn't throwing very well anyways. Now this filters into my REAL EXPECTED category of Nebraska's defense still being on a steep learning curve and honestly just not very strong. It was clear to see the dominance of Iowa's O-line, but even more clear to see the work needed to be done by the Blackshirts in the weight room. They're not even 1 full year in with this Coaching and Strength staff, so I don't expect them to be world-beaters by any means, but you can't get knocked back 6+ yards on every snap. The defense has a lot of changes coming this off-season, and Chinander better make sure these guys really understand the scheme on top of getting in the weight room.
BAD- My BAD category for the Huskers this week was the secondary, specifically the coaching. As a former defensive back, I understand the various situations Corners and DBs are put into and how difficult of a position it is to play. However, there is absolutely no reason why the coaches should have our secondary players 10-12 yards off the ball in a third or fourth and short/medium. Chinander loves his zone coverage, but at least make it a press zone in those situations. They're so scared of getting beat deep, they constantly move further and further back from the line of scrimmage. Again, I don't know exactly how Nebraska's coaches run their system, and I don't mean to say they don't know what they're doing, they have far more experience than I do. But when it's 3rd & 4 or 4th & 8, there needs to be tighter coverage. Danny Langsdorf is not Iowa's OC, so he's not going to bomb it deep every other play. The coaches need to have the DBs put their heels on the first down line and stay put, make sure if the receiver catches it, they catch it underneath and you make the tackle. The secondary play has frustrated me (and many others) time and time again throughout the years, so expect that to be a big focus during the off-season as well. A big part of it is recruiting, but the coaches need to build up those recruits. I'm confident they can get it done. Again, there's no way of saying tighter coverage would've prevented Iowa from completing their 4th & 8 at the end of the game, but being 5 yards off the first down line where the ball was caught is definitely not going to stop it for the defense. A bit nit-picky, but it's the little things that count in this game!
Overall, I have to continue to remind myself this was a building and learning season. This team has been through so much overhaul, change and culture shock over the previous year or so, and with how they turned the second half of their season around truly impressed me. I'm excited for what Coach Frost and crew have in store for next year and the years to come, and now that I'm nearly graduated, hopefully I can be part of it! Tough, challenging and solid season by Husker Football this year, a lot to look forward to in 2019, especially with a more favorable schedule. GO BIG RED!
Now for some other news from around College Football:
- The Texas A&M/LSU game was AMAZING. I basically only watched Overtime, but that was more than enough. The Aggies and the Tigers dueled it out in a record-tying 7 Overtimes, scoring the most points ever in a College Football game with a 74-72 victory for A&M. The best part is that LSU thought they had won with an interception toward the end of regulation and celebrated prematurely with a Gatorade bath for Coach O. The Interception was overturned because Aggie QB Kellen Mond's knee was on the ground, and they tied it on the last play of regulation. Unfortunately a sour ending occurred when an Aggie staff member (possibly Jimbo Fisher's nephew) punched an LSU coach in the pacemaker, but otherwise a great spectacle of our sport. Crazy game, Mom would've LOVED it!
- One last thing from the A&M/LSU game, can we just award Kendrick Rogers the Biletnikoff for that game? He wasn't even the Aggies leading receiver but this kid made the biggest catches when it mattered most. With Kellen Mond being a Sophomore, and returning his top 5 receivers and his running back next season, watch out for the Aggies. This team will be LOADED in 2019 on the offensive side of the ball.
- Big coaching changes already occurring as Texas Tech fired Kliff Kingsbury and North Carolina fired Larry Fedora. The Heels immediately hired Mac Brown who added Kingsbury and Gene Chizik as his Offensive and Defensive Coordinators respectively. That's a very impressive staff, and North Carolina could at least cause some havoc within the conference now. USC also kept Clay Helton and Mike Leach is reported to be interested in the Texas Tech job... again. The big hire mid-week before the turkey was ready occurred in Kansas, as the Jayhawks finalized a deal with former LSU coach Les Miles. There will be plenty more coaching shake ups to come!
- Jim Harbaugh still cannot beat Urban Meyer. "The" Ohio State dismantled Michigan, dropping 62 on the top ranked defense in football. With LSU and Wazzu losing, the Buckeyes have a decent shot of getting into the playoffs.
- Minnesota POUNDED Wisconsin, winning Paul Bunyan's Axe for the first time in 15 years!
- UCF Quarterback McKenzie Milton suffered a horrible knee injury in their win against USF. He was carted off the field and taken to a local hospital. I hope his injury isn't too severe and that he's able to recover, because he was one of my favorite players to watch over the past two seasons. Prayers up!
- Much like Jim Harbaugh and Urban Meyer, Mike Leach cannot beat Christ Petersen. The Huskies took down my Bandwagon Cougars and won the Pac-12 North for the second time in 3 years.
- Oklahoma and West Virginia had their offensive explosion, and it did not disappoint. The Sooners defense made the difference though (they still gave up 56 points), scoring two TDs and setting OU up for another date with the Longhorns. CFB Playoff hopes are likely on the line and you NEVER want to play a team twice in one year, especially if you lost to them the first time. Look out Texas.
- A few classic rivalry week brawls occurred over the weekend, reminding us just how much these games mean. It hurts the importance of football in my mind, but are still kind of funny to watch.
- There were a lot of great games, catches and happenings this week in College Football. I'd just like to take a moment to think about the other parts of the game, like Tyler Trent with Purdue or The Wave to the Children's Hospital in Iowa City. The ability to bring people together in respectful competition is important to remember, and that while football is one of my biggest passions, there are more important things to focus on with it in life.
I hope you all had a wonderful Holiday weekend and are ready for Conference Championship week! Thank you all for reading my post and GO BIG RED!
#CFBKnowItAll
Alex Fernando
The Huskers finished the season at 4-8 for the second straight year. This 4-8 season definitely tastes a little better than last year. Scott Frost's first season as head man of the Huskers was full of ups and downs, but I think Husker Nation can all say this team is headed in the right direction with a confidence that has been missing in recent years. I really thought Nebraska was going to pull of the victory at Iowa this past week. The Blackshirts failed to show up, after putting on their best performance just a week ago against Michigan State. This whole team has been up against a steep learning curve this season, but the defense has struggled all year long. Iowa played a solid game, but they almost lost it themselves by throwing the ball so much. Adrian and the offense finished strong, but as we all knew from the beginning, this was a growing year. Read through my break down analysis of the Iowa game below.
GOOD- The GOOD award this week goes to The Man Stan. Stanley Morgan Jr. has been a stellar wideout for the Huskers over the past four years, proving it once again in his final game for the Scarlet and Cream. Against Iowa, Morgan became the first ever Husker receiver to surpass 1,000 yards in a single season. He finished the game with 7 catches for 81 yards, averaging 11.6 yards per catch. I've really enjoyed watching Stanley play, and as a former receiver it's great to see a player like Stanley having such a fantastic career. He leaves Nebraska as the all time leader in catches and yards, with 189 receptions for 2,747 yards and 22 TDs. I credit the Husker offense with the GOOD award as well, racking up 400 total yards and fighting back from a double-digit deficit. Maurice Washington finished with 102 yards receiving and a TD to lead the Huskers. While the offense struggled on third down for much of the game, they fought back in the end, erasing a 15-point deficit to force Iowa's last second field goal. The offense really started clicking during the last half of this season, and I'm excited to see how they do next year. Ozigbo and Morgan will be key losses, but there are a lot of weapons around Martinez, so opposing defenses better be ready.
EXPECTED- The EXPECTED category is how Iowa nearly handed this game back to Nebraska. Specifically with their lack of production on offense. Now I say that with a grain of salt, because the Hawkeyes did have 266 yards rushing, but they easily could've had more. I understand coaches need to mix it up and throw the ball once in a while, but the Hawkeyes offensive line was man-handling the Blackshirts' front 7, pushing them back at least 6 yards on every run play. If I were Ferentz,, I would've ran the ball until they proved they could stop it, Nate Stanley wasn't throwing very well anyways. Now this filters into my REAL EXPECTED category of Nebraska's defense still being on a steep learning curve and honestly just not very strong. It was clear to see the dominance of Iowa's O-line, but even more clear to see the work needed to be done by the Blackshirts in the weight room. They're not even 1 full year in with this Coaching and Strength staff, so I don't expect them to be world-beaters by any means, but you can't get knocked back 6+ yards on every snap. The defense has a lot of changes coming this off-season, and Chinander better make sure these guys really understand the scheme on top of getting in the weight room.
BAD- My BAD category for the Huskers this week was the secondary, specifically the coaching. As a former defensive back, I understand the various situations Corners and DBs are put into and how difficult of a position it is to play. However, there is absolutely no reason why the coaches should have our secondary players 10-12 yards off the ball in a third or fourth and short/medium. Chinander loves his zone coverage, but at least make it a press zone in those situations. They're so scared of getting beat deep, they constantly move further and further back from the line of scrimmage. Again, I don't know exactly how Nebraska's coaches run their system, and I don't mean to say they don't know what they're doing, they have far more experience than I do. But when it's 3rd & 4 or 4th & 8, there needs to be tighter coverage. Danny Langsdorf is not Iowa's OC, so he's not going to bomb it deep every other play. The coaches need to have the DBs put their heels on the first down line and stay put, make sure if the receiver catches it, they catch it underneath and you make the tackle. The secondary play has frustrated me (and many others) time and time again throughout the years, so expect that to be a big focus during the off-season as well. A big part of it is recruiting, but the coaches need to build up those recruits. I'm confident they can get it done. Again, there's no way of saying tighter coverage would've prevented Iowa from completing their 4th & 8 at the end of the game, but being 5 yards off the first down line where the ball was caught is definitely not going to stop it for the defense. A bit nit-picky, but it's the little things that count in this game!
Overall, I have to continue to remind myself this was a building and learning season. This team has been through so much overhaul, change and culture shock over the previous year or so, and with how they turned the second half of their season around truly impressed me. I'm excited for what Coach Frost and crew have in store for next year and the years to come, and now that I'm nearly graduated, hopefully I can be part of it! Tough, challenging and solid season by Husker Football this year, a lot to look forward to in 2019, especially with a more favorable schedule. GO BIG RED!
Now for some other news from around College Football:
- The Texas A&M/LSU game was AMAZING. I basically only watched Overtime, but that was more than enough. The Aggies and the Tigers dueled it out in a record-tying 7 Overtimes, scoring the most points ever in a College Football game with a 74-72 victory for A&M. The best part is that LSU thought they had won with an interception toward the end of regulation and celebrated prematurely with a Gatorade bath for Coach O. The Interception was overturned because Aggie QB Kellen Mond's knee was on the ground, and they tied it on the last play of regulation. Unfortunately a sour ending occurred when an Aggie staff member (possibly Jimbo Fisher's nephew) punched an LSU coach in the pacemaker, but otherwise a great spectacle of our sport. Crazy game, Mom would've LOVED it!
- One last thing from the A&M/LSU game, can we just award Kendrick Rogers the Biletnikoff for that game? He wasn't even the Aggies leading receiver but this kid made the biggest catches when it mattered most. With Kellen Mond being a Sophomore, and returning his top 5 receivers and his running back next season, watch out for the Aggies. This team will be LOADED in 2019 on the offensive side of the ball.
- Big coaching changes already occurring as Texas Tech fired Kliff Kingsbury and North Carolina fired Larry Fedora. The Heels immediately hired Mac Brown who added Kingsbury and Gene Chizik as his Offensive and Defensive Coordinators respectively. That's a very impressive staff, and North Carolina could at least cause some havoc within the conference now. USC also kept Clay Helton and Mike Leach is reported to be interested in the Texas Tech job... again. The big hire mid-week before the turkey was ready occurred in Kansas, as the Jayhawks finalized a deal with former LSU coach Les Miles. There will be plenty more coaching shake ups to come!
- Jim Harbaugh still cannot beat Urban Meyer. "The" Ohio State dismantled Michigan, dropping 62 on the top ranked defense in football. With LSU and Wazzu losing, the Buckeyes have a decent shot of getting into the playoffs.
- Minnesota POUNDED Wisconsin, winning Paul Bunyan's Axe for the first time in 15 years!
- UCF Quarterback McKenzie Milton suffered a horrible knee injury in their win against USF. He was carted off the field and taken to a local hospital. I hope his injury isn't too severe and that he's able to recover, because he was one of my favorite players to watch over the past two seasons. Prayers up!
- Much like Jim Harbaugh and Urban Meyer, Mike Leach cannot beat Christ Petersen. The Huskies took down my Bandwagon Cougars and won the Pac-12 North for the second time in 3 years.
- Oklahoma and West Virginia had their offensive explosion, and it did not disappoint. The Sooners defense made the difference though (they still gave up 56 points), scoring two TDs and setting OU up for another date with the Longhorns. CFB Playoff hopes are likely on the line and you NEVER want to play a team twice in one year, especially if you lost to them the first time. Look out Texas.
- A few classic rivalry week brawls occurred over the weekend, reminding us just how much these games mean. It hurts the importance of football in my mind, but are still kind of funny to watch.
- There were a lot of great games, catches and happenings this week in College Football. I'd just like to take a moment to think about the other parts of the game, like Tyler Trent with Purdue or The Wave to the Children's Hospital in Iowa City. The ability to bring people together in respectful competition is important to remember, and that while football is one of my biggest passions, there are more important things to focus on with it in life.
I hope you all had a wonderful Holiday weekend and are ready for Conference Championship week! Thank you all for reading my post and GO BIG RED!
#CFBKnowItAll
Alex Fernando
Friday, November 23, 2018
Rivalry Week Predictions
What's the difference between Lincoln and Iowa City? It's about 304 miles and 5 National Titles. We've made it folks, it's here! It's the greatest weekend of the year. Happy Thanksgiving to you all and welcome to Rivalry Week. Endless amounts of food and football kickoff today and I am so excited for all of it. You always throw out the records when it comes to rivalry games, because this is some good, clean hate. This post will have all my predictions on the great rivalry games of the week and how some of them may impact the College Football Playoffs, enjoy!
Week 12 Prediction Results: 8-5
Overall Prediction Results: 86-67
Virginia at Virginia Tech (Battle for the Commonwealth Cup)
The Hokies have not had the year they expected in 2018. Sitting at 4-6, their team more or less fell apart after the loss to Old Dominion early in the season. They've found a bit more success with Ryan Willis at Quarterback, as he's thrown for nearly 2,000 yards with a 17:6 TD to INT ratio. Their defense has been the most concerning issue however, especially because they are typically one of the more higher ranked ones in the nation. "DBU" has been non-existent this year, giving up an average of 228 yards through the air and just under 32 points per game. Their rival Cavaliers have had another solid season, sitting at 7-4, but coming off the heels of an Overtime loss at Georgia Tech. The Cavs are lead by Junior QB Bryce Perkins on offense, who is completing 65.4% of his passes for 2,213 yards and 19 TDs. He does have 9 picks on the season, and the protection hasn't been great as he's been sacked 29 times so far. Defensively though, the Cavaliers give up just 20.6 points per game, and have 13 picks on the season. I'm taking Virginia to win the Commonwealth Cup this year, 33-20.
#9 UCF at South Florida (War on I-4)
The Golden Knights have become the first ever G-5 team to break into the top-10 of the CFB Playoff Rankings. Now they look to close out a second straight undefeated season against in-state rival South Florida. The Bulls started the season 7-0, but have lost 4 straight since. The back half of their schedule is definitely the tough part, and now they finish against the team that hasn't lost in 2 seasons. Blake Barnett leads the Bulls offense, but their ground game needs to be a focus in this match-up. UCF's defense is tough, giving up just 20 points per game. However, there are a good amount of yards to be had against them. They rank 112th in rush defense, giving up 213 yards per game on average. If the Bulls can establish a ground game with Junior RB Jordan Cronkrite, they could make this game pretty interesting. Cronkrite has over 1,000 yards on the season thus far along with 9 TDs. His production has dropped significantly over the last four weeks, likely a key factor in their four losses. Switching to the team that doesn't lose, I direct your attention to star QB McKenzie Milton. Milton should've been a Heisman Finalist last year, and has backed that narrative up again this year. He's thrown for over 2,500 yards with a 24:5 TD to INT ratio to go along with another 9 TDs and nearly 300 yards on the ground. Milton is the unquestioned leader of this squad and is the X-factor in every game for UCF. He'll have another big day and the Knights will keep their undefeated and Playoff Hopes (kind of) alive! UCF 42, South Florida 24.
Georgia Tech at #5 Georgia (Clean, Old-Fashioned Hate)
The Yellow Jackets and the Bulldogs meet for the 113th time this weekend between the hedges in Athens. The Ramblin' Wreck will look to ground and pound with their triple option attack while the Dawgs will use their balanced attack with the QB duo of Jake Fromm and Justin Fields. Georgia Tech lead the nation yet again on the ground, averaging 353 yards per game. Georgia allows just under 130 on the ground per game, so we will have a classic unstoppable force vs. an immovable object scenario in this game. For Georgia's offense, they should be able to take advantage of Tech's defense, especially through the air. Jake Fromm is completing 68.2% of his passes and has a 20:5 TD to INT ratio. Don't get me wrong, there will be a heavy dose of D'Andre Swift and Elijah Holyfield out of the backfield, but Fromm will be the one to break this game open. Big day from the Georgia offense and they prep for Bama in the SEC Championship with a win. Dawgs 34, Yellow Jackets 21.
#11 Florida at Florida State (Sunshine Showdown)
A game that used to decide the best team in the state of Florida has lost its luster in recent years. The Gators are looking for their first win in this series since 2012 and the 'Noles are fighting to keep their NCAA-record 36-year bowl streak alive. FSU has not looked great this year, averaging 22.6 points per game while giving up 30.6. They rank 102nd in total offense, even with the talents of Deondre Francois and Cam Akers in the backfield. The Gators have been flirting with danger in a few different games this season, but their defense often bails them out. They will look to keep a lot of pressure on Francois in this game, as he's been sacked 24 times this year. The 'Noles need to try to get Cam Akers going on offense, otherwise they don't stand a chance. I'll take the Gators in this one, Dan Mullen finishes his first Florida season off with a solid win against the rival. Florida 30, FSU 14.
#20 Syracuse at Boston College
The 'Cuse and the Golden Eagles are trudging off of rough weekends as they head into their game against each other. BC will look to get their ground game started again with AJ Dillon, as he's coming off his first 100+ yard performance since October. The Orange have a decent run defense, giving up around 170 per game on the ground, but Dillon is not an easy back to bring down. The Eagles will focus their offense around him and look to control the clock. For the 'Cuse, their chances to win really depend on the health of Senior QB Eric Dungey. Dungey went down early in the Notre Dame game with an injury last week, and the offense lost it's mojo. Without Dungey, Tommy DeVito will be in at QB. Boston College's defense isn't quite the Irish's, but they're not easy to get by. If Dungey plays, they have a shot, but I'm sticking with Boston College in this game. AJ Dillion runs away with it and the Eagles win 24-10.
Purdue at Indiana (Battle for the Old Oaken Bucket)
The Boilermakers and the Hoosiers square off in Bloomington as they both look to get bowl eligible while preventing their arch rival from doing the same. Indiana's typically sturdy defense has struggled this year, giving up 30 points per game and over 420 yards on average. They played tough at Michigan last week, but their offense doesn't really produce much. Purdue on the other hand, their offense is one of the most dynamic in the nation. The Boilermakers rank 23rd in total offense, averaging 460 yards per game. David Blough has really taken over in his senior season, throwing for 3,211 yards with 22 TDs and 7 picks. His stats are helped by the fact that one of the best players in the nation just happens to be his top wide receiver. Freshman standout Rondale Moore has 1,023 yards receiving on the year to go along with 10 touchdowns. He's easily one of the most dynamic players I've ever had the privilege of watching in person. Indiana will play them tough, as always, but I cannot pick against Rondale Moore. Boilermakers win the Bucket and Bowl eligibility. Purdue is going to try to give a reason for Jeff Brohm to stick around with a 34-24 victory.
Auburn at #1 Alabama (The Iron Bowl)
Can we have another Kick-6 please? Can we have anything that knocks off the Crimson Tide? The answer is no. Tua Tagovailoa and the Tide look to continue Rolling as arch rival Auburn comes into town and unfortunately, I don't think the Tigers will be coming out with a win. Alabama looks to be absolutely unstoppable this season, averaging 48.7 points per game and giving up just 13. They've already handed Tua the Heisman Trophy (not necessarily a bad choice, but they do need to talk about other players in the nation too) and Bama will likely roll onto another National Championship. Auburn is always a factor, especially in the Iron Bowl, but fans are starting to get frustrated with Gus Malzahn and his lack of offensive production. I don't think this will be his last Iron Bowl, but they will definitely be looking for more production next season. The Tigers defense is always tough, and they will be looking to slow down the Tide's offense. I think they'll keep it close for a bit, but Bama is to much right now. Crimson Tide win it 30-17.
Maryland at #12 Penn State
Now this might not seem like a marquee game, but there's bad blood here and these teams have a lot to play for. Starting with the Terps, they're one win away from bowl eligibility, (after screwing up their upset on Ohio State last week). This team has a lot of talent and is really starting to build a new culture since the departure of DJ Durkin. It will take a while before they're cured of everything he did to the program, but you can tell there's a new energy around this team. I think that's what makes them so dangerous, combined with the young talent. Freshman Running Back Anthony McFarland has taken the world by storm over the last couple weeks, rushing for 508 yards and 2 TDs in just the last two games combined. He had just a shade under 300 against the Buckeyes and will look to challenge Penn State's 80th ranked rush defense, which gives up an average of 177 yards on the ground per game. The Nittany Lions have a secret weapon though, and his name is Trace McSorley. Okay, maybe he's not really a secret, but McSorley is one of the best leaders in all of college football. He's very rarely lost during his entire football career, and has numerous weapons on what still can be a very deadly offense. Along with RB Miles Sanders and WR KJ Hamler, they should be able to put up some points against Marlyand's 55th ranked total defense. The weather is not going to be great out in Happy Valley, so that could dampen the points a bit, but I expect both offenses to play well and really challenge each other. Tough, hard fought game between rivals, but there's no way I'm picking against Trace McSorley on Senior Day. Penn State 31, Maryland 23.
#24 Pitt at Miami
After handing Miami their first loss of the season last year, Pitt looks to break out their own turnover chain again against the Hurricanes as they square off in Hard Rock Stadium. The Panthers already have the Coastal Division locked up, but must get by Miami before they take on Clemson. The Panthers' offensive attack will be met with brute force as Miami's 3rd ranked total defense will be in their way. The Hurricanes are giving up just 275 yards and 19.5 points per game on average. They've been able to stick around in games because of their defense, but their offense often fails to help out. Miami ranks 93rd in total offense and have scored above 21 points just once in the last 5 weeks. Pitt again, has a very dynamic offense, lead by the QB-RB duo of Kenny Picket and Qadree Ollison. Ollison has over 1,100 yards on the season and 10 TDs. Pitt will need to focus on the ground game in order to get the victory in this one, but I like their chances. Even with Clemson looming in the not-so-distant future, the Panthers take care of business 37-20.
Arizona State at Arizona (Duel in the Desert, Battle for the Territorial Cup)
The Sun Devils had a shot to win the South Division of the Pac-12, but after a tough road loss to Oregon last week, the Utes took the crown and Arizona State will not just play for pride against Arizona. Don't think they won't be fighting though, with two first year head coaches and a lot of talent on offense for both teams, this should be a fairly interesting game. The Wildcats are led by star QB Khalil Tate, who is easily a Heisman-caliber player. Tate has 2,248 passing yards this season to go along with 23 TDs and 7 picks. His legs are what really scare defenses though, as he's rushed for another couple scores on the ground this season. While he hasn't been as effective on the ground this year (by design), Sophomore RB J.J. Taylor has picked up the slack. Taylor ranks 6th in the nation for rushing with 1,290, and will be a huge focal point in this game. The Sun Devils give up around 150 yards on the ground per game, so we'll see how much damage Arizona can do. Flipping to the other side, we look no further than the QB-WR duo of Manny Wilkins and N'Keal Harry. I've always been impressed with Wilkins' play throughout his career, and this year is no different. He's thrown for over 2,600 yards with 18 TDs and just 4 picks. He's also added another 7 scores on the ground and just makes really good decisions with the ball. N'Keal Harry leads the team with 1,033 yards and 9 TDs, he's one of the most talented players in the country. Finally, a big part of their offense that is often overlooked because of Wilkins and Harry, their running back, Eno Benjamin. Benjamin ranks 3rd in the nation for rushing, so we will see a great battle with the ground game today. I've been impressed with the Sun Devils all season, and I'll take them with a big win against the rival on the road. Herm Edwards draws first blood in the rivalry with a 38-28 victory.
BYU at #17 Utah (The Holy War, Battle for the Beehive Boot)
The Cougars have fallen off the face of the Earth after their upset against the Badgers in Camp Randall early in the season, and Wisconsin kind of did too. Regardless, BYU travels just 40 minutes North to take on their arch rival Utes, who have just claimed victory on the Pac-12 South. Now this game won't have any affect to the conference, but Utah is looking to set themselves up for a possible Rose Bowl bid, and nothing fuels that better than beating your rival. BYU has had some key injuries this season, but none bigger than star RB Squally Canada. Lopini Katoa has taken over in his place though, rushing for 155 yards and 4 TDs last week. Canada may be in the mix today, but they'll be running up against a brick wall, a.k.a. Utah's 14th ranked defense. The Utes have been tough all year on that side of the ball, and I think that's the difference maker in this game. They will cause all sorts of havoc for the Cougars, and Utah wins this one 30-14
#21 Utah State at #23 Boise State
While not a complete rivalry, this game could start to become one. The winner of this game will take the Mountain Division crown and face off against Fresno State in the Mountain West Conference Championship. The Aggies have been the biggest "under the radar" team in 2018, losing just their opener to Michigan State on the road (MSU had a last second TD to win) and dominating nearly everyone since. Sophomore QB Jordan Love is a dark horse Heisman contender next year, as he's thrown for 2,845 yards while completing 66.4% of his passes with 25 TDs and just 4 picks. He's added another 6 TDs on the ground, and is not easy to bring down, being sacked only 7 times on the year. However, they are playing on the road, and as many of you know, it's not easy to win on the Smurf Turf. The Bronco's are tough to beat at home (mostly because you can't see their players wearing blue on the blue turf), and they are led by Senior QB Brett Rypien. Rypien has thrown for 3,270 yards this season with a 28:7 TD to INT ratio and an impressive 68.5% completion percentage. Alexander Mattison leads the ground game with 13 TDs, but this will be a QB duel. Both defenses give up just 22 points per game on average and under 375 total yards. I would love to see Utah State pull this upset here, but I think Rypien's experience will be the difference maker on his home turf. Jordan Love plays well, but he'll have to wait his turn to win this budding rivalry. Go Aggies, but the Broncos win 35-31.
#7 LSU at #22 Texas A&M
The Aggies are looking for their first win in this rivalry series since joining the SEC, and Jimbo Fisher just might be the guy to do that. I'm still not convinced on LSU (they've played with my trust far too much), and I don't like them being ranked #7 (Wazzu should be above them). So the easiest way for this to go down is for Texas A&M to come after LSU QB Joe Burrow with a relentless pass rush. Burrow has been sacked 27 times so far this season, and the Aggies are averaging a tad under 3 sacks per game. I think A&M will be able to shut down the run, forcing LSU to air it out, thus resulting in the pass rush. However, you need to score points to win and that means A&M QB Kellen Mond and RB Trayveon Williams will need to break through the Tigers' tough defense. They only give up 16 points and 330 yards per game on average, so moving the ball could be a struggle. The Aggies have advantage on the outside however, and I think the height and talent of their receiving corps will be the difference maker for their offense. If Mond can take care of the football, the Aggies should be able to pull this one out. Texas A&M 27, LSU 22.
#3 Notre Dame at USC
Our last hope of knocking the Irish out of the College Football Playoffs lie with the mighty Trojans of USC... unfortunately, they're not very mighty right now. After back to back Rose Bowl appearances, USC is trying to become bowl eligible with a win over the Irish. There are lots of fans calling for Clay Helton's head, but it's honestly just a rebuilding season for USC. They lost a first-round QB, their top rusher, receiver and lots of talent on defense from last year's squad. They're starting a true Freshman at QB and have not been able to establish much of a ground game to help him out, averaging just 137 rushing yards per game. Notre Dame is playing very stellar defense right now and Ian Book has brought this offense to an impressive level of efficiency. USC is never an easy team to face, especially on the road, but I like the Irish in this one. They look like a complete team and will prove that once again as they attempt to lock up a playoff spot. Upsets are always nice, but I doubt we see one here, Notre Dame 34, USC 21.
#6 Oklahoma at #13 West Virginia
The Big XII shootout of all shootouts. I've been waiting to watch this game all year because it features two of the best QBs in the game leading two of the best offenses in the game. There will be points for DAYS in this game, and I wouldn't be surprised if they both topped 50. West Virginia is coming off of a tough, last minute loss to Oklahoma State, crushing their (and mine for them) playoff dreams. Oklahoma is the Big XII's best chance of getting at team in the Playoffs, but I don't think it will happen. The Sooners do have Kyler Murray, the to-be Heisman runner-up, but their defense just gave up 40 points to Kansas.... Yeah, I said KANSAS. If they're allowing the Jayhawks to put up 40, Will Grier and company are going to have a field day. Now this is where it gets interesting, because if Oklahoma wins, they will play Texas (assuming they handle their business against Kansas) for the Big XII Championship, a rematch I'm sure they would look forward to. If West Virginia Wins, then Oklahoma would be bumped due to the tie-breaker Texas holds over them. All you really need to know in this game is offense. There will be a LOT of offense, and the QB who has the ball last will likely win the game. This is a complete toss up, but I like West Virginia at home. Fueled by their loss last week, they'll come out with a chip on their shoulder and be ready to go. Besides, it's rivalry week, Mom would be pretty upset at me if I picked Oklahoma. Grab your popcorn ladies and gentlemen, this one is going to be fun to watch! Mountaineers 48, Boomer Sooner 46.
#16 Washington at #8 Washington State (The Apple Cup)
The Pac-12's last chance for a playoff team has a big hurdle to conquer as they take on their arch rival Huskies out on the Palouse. Playing in Pullman will be a big bonus for the Cougars, but the Huskies are 5-0 in the last 5 years, winning the previous 3 by a combined score of 131-41. Wazzu will look to flip that script with Graduate-Transfer QB Gardner Minshew, a.k.a. the Stache Man. Minshew and his fabulous Mustache have thrown for a nation-leading 4,325 yards to go a long with his nation-leading 36 TDs compared to just 7 picks. He's completing 70.4% of his passes and uses every weapon possible, hitting 11 different receivers in their win against Arizona last week. The key player to watch however, is Cougar RB Max Borghi. The true Freshman has come on late in the season, but is a dangerous weapon both on the ground and through the air catching the ball. The offense has found a new spark with Borghi, and this kid is going to be a big play-maker down the road. On the other side, you have the deadly tandem of Jake Browning and Myles Gaskin for the Huskies. Washington's offense has sputtered over the last couple seasons, but these veteran players are never easy to handle. Wazzu has played some solid defense this year, and having watched a lot of their games, it's crazy to see how well they tackle and fly to the ball. I think they'll provide some good containment. The Huskies defense will have all eyes on them however, as they rank 16th in the nation, giving up just 16.6 points per game and 318 yards on average. The talent just oozes out of this squad, and they've kept their team in games when the offense isn't living up to the hype. Gardner Minshew will have to play his best game yet in order to knock the Huskies down a peg, but this kid has a Heisman vote from me and I think he can do it. Hopefully this spotlight allows him to at least get to New York, and hopefully allows Wazzu to move up in the CFB Playoff rankings! Cougars win a big one at home in the Apple Cup 31-28.
#4 Michigan at #10 Ohio State (The Game)
There is no reason to describe the hatred between these two teams, when you see the Maize and Blue go against the Scarlet and Silver, you know it's going to be a great game. This year the BIG 10 East Division crown will be decided by the victor, and whether the BIG 10 gets a team into the playoffs or not will also likely be decided. Looking at the stats, Michigan is the better team, by a mile. They've dominated nearly every game they've played this season, and their top ranked defense fears absolutely no one. The Buckeyes, while still incredibly talented, have struggled this year, especially during the second half of the season. They nearly lost at Maryland last week, and were simply lucky when the Terps missed a wide open pass on the two-point conversion that would've won the game. Dwayne Haskins has been impressive this season, throwing for 3,685 yards with 36 TDs and just 7 picks, but he's struggled when under heavy pressure. If you haven't watched the Wolverines yet this season, that's all they do. They have 31 sacks on the season and are often living in opponents backfield with 76 tackles for loss. Ohio State will need to get the ball out in space early with their wide receivers, but this is going to be a tough game to move the ball in. On the other side, Shae Patterson has really taken control of this offense, and has an 18:4 TD to INT ratio to prove it. Senior RB Karan Higdon leads the ground attack with more than 1,100 yards and 10 TDs, and he could have a big day against the Buckeyes, as they gave up nearly 300 yards on the ground to Anthony McFarland of Maryland alone last week. Now all of these stats point to a Michigan victory, right? Wrong. The key match-up of this game is Jim Harbaugh vs. Urban Meyer, and the coaching decisions made during crucial moments. I think Harbaugh is a solid coach, but he tries to overplay his hand at times, especially against Meyer and the Buckeyes. Urban, as much as I dislike him, is one of the best at in-game adjustments, and I think that will be the difference maker in this one. I hope the BIG 10 is able to represent in the playoffs, but Michigan is their only chance in my opinion, and I just don't think Harbaugh can beat Urban Meyer. We'll see if they prove me wrong, but I've got Ohio State beating Michigan 24-23.
Nebraska at Iowa (The Heroes Game, a.k.a. FARMAGEDDON)
The Huskers travel to Iowa City to take on the lowly, stinking Hawkeyes (sorry not sorry, it's rivalry week). The over-hyped birds are favored in this game, but Nebraska is easily the last 4-7 team you want to play right now, because they have confidence. They have confidence in their offense, in their coach, and a newly found confidence in their kicker and defense! Iowa is coming off a big win against Illinois, where their defense gave proof of their #6 ranking. However, they have not faced the likes of one Adrian Martinez yet, and this Freshman is ready to do damage. There are chinks in the Hawkeyes armor, and if Nebraska can establish a ground game early and stick with it, those holes will be opened up more and more. Nebraska has fallen short in this rivalry in recent years, but Iowa is quaking in their boots as Coach Frost rolls up to Kinnick, they know what he's capable of. His offense will be clicking today as Devine Ozigbo and Stanley Morgan are likely playing their last game as Huskers. Morgan needs just 77 more yards to become Nebraska's first ever 1,000 yard receiver, and you just know he's going to have a big day. Iowa's secondary is tough, but in their 4 losses, a lot of damage has been done through the air, especially the 205 yards form Alex Hornibrook of Wisconsin and the 333 yards from David Blough of Purdue. Look for Nebraska to find some holes in the zone coverage over the middle once the ground game opens up. As for the Hawkeye offense, they're often their own worse enemy. Nate Stanley is a very solid QB, but has flashes of inaccuracy in some of the biggest moments of the game. The Hawks haven't ran the ball very well this season, and Nebraska will be keying on their Tight Ends early and often. Noah Fant and T.J. Hockenson are two of the best players in the conference, so the Blackshirts will really need to keep them in check to win this game. It will be cold, it will be tough, but Adrian Martinez will show what he's really made of and this Husker team will show everyone what's to come for next year and beyond. I know Mom's ready to beat Iowa, and the Huskers are too. Nebraska wins it 26-21! GO BIG RED!
Side Note: Iowa's logo looks like Fred Flintstone's face turned on it's side.
Side Note #2: I'm excited to see the Wave on TV.
Thank you all for reading my Rivalry Week Predictions, and I hope you have a wonderful weekend! While this is a tough time for me and my family, I am extremely thankful for everything my mom taught me, and the passion she shared with me for Husker and College Football. This was always one of her favorite weekends as well and I'm sad to experience my first Rivalry Week with out the fiercest competitor I know. Thank you for everything Mom, and as you always taught me, GO BIG RED!
#CFBKnowItAll
Alex Fernando
Week 12 Prediction Results: 8-5
Overall Prediction Results: 86-67
Virginia at Virginia Tech (Battle for the Commonwealth Cup)
The Hokies have not had the year they expected in 2018. Sitting at 4-6, their team more or less fell apart after the loss to Old Dominion early in the season. They've found a bit more success with Ryan Willis at Quarterback, as he's thrown for nearly 2,000 yards with a 17:6 TD to INT ratio. Their defense has been the most concerning issue however, especially because they are typically one of the more higher ranked ones in the nation. "DBU" has been non-existent this year, giving up an average of 228 yards through the air and just under 32 points per game. Their rival Cavaliers have had another solid season, sitting at 7-4, but coming off the heels of an Overtime loss at Georgia Tech. The Cavs are lead by Junior QB Bryce Perkins on offense, who is completing 65.4% of his passes for 2,213 yards and 19 TDs. He does have 9 picks on the season, and the protection hasn't been great as he's been sacked 29 times so far. Defensively though, the Cavaliers give up just 20.6 points per game, and have 13 picks on the season. I'm taking Virginia to win the Commonwealth Cup this year, 33-20.
#9 UCF at South Florida (War on I-4)
The Golden Knights have become the first ever G-5 team to break into the top-10 of the CFB Playoff Rankings. Now they look to close out a second straight undefeated season against in-state rival South Florida. The Bulls started the season 7-0, but have lost 4 straight since. The back half of their schedule is definitely the tough part, and now they finish against the team that hasn't lost in 2 seasons. Blake Barnett leads the Bulls offense, but their ground game needs to be a focus in this match-up. UCF's defense is tough, giving up just 20 points per game. However, there are a good amount of yards to be had against them. They rank 112th in rush defense, giving up 213 yards per game on average. If the Bulls can establish a ground game with Junior RB Jordan Cronkrite, they could make this game pretty interesting. Cronkrite has over 1,000 yards on the season thus far along with 9 TDs. His production has dropped significantly over the last four weeks, likely a key factor in their four losses. Switching to the team that doesn't lose, I direct your attention to star QB McKenzie Milton. Milton should've been a Heisman Finalist last year, and has backed that narrative up again this year. He's thrown for over 2,500 yards with a 24:5 TD to INT ratio to go along with another 9 TDs and nearly 300 yards on the ground. Milton is the unquestioned leader of this squad and is the X-factor in every game for UCF. He'll have another big day and the Knights will keep their undefeated and Playoff Hopes (kind of) alive! UCF 42, South Florida 24.
Georgia Tech at #5 Georgia (Clean, Old-Fashioned Hate)
The Yellow Jackets and the Bulldogs meet for the 113th time this weekend between the hedges in Athens. The Ramblin' Wreck will look to ground and pound with their triple option attack while the Dawgs will use their balanced attack with the QB duo of Jake Fromm and Justin Fields. Georgia Tech lead the nation yet again on the ground, averaging 353 yards per game. Georgia allows just under 130 on the ground per game, so we will have a classic unstoppable force vs. an immovable object scenario in this game. For Georgia's offense, they should be able to take advantage of Tech's defense, especially through the air. Jake Fromm is completing 68.2% of his passes and has a 20:5 TD to INT ratio. Don't get me wrong, there will be a heavy dose of D'Andre Swift and Elijah Holyfield out of the backfield, but Fromm will be the one to break this game open. Big day from the Georgia offense and they prep for Bama in the SEC Championship with a win. Dawgs 34, Yellow Jackets 21.
#11 Florida at Florida State (Sunshine Showdown)
A game that used to decide the best team in the state of Florida has lost its luster in recent years. The Gators are looking for their first win in this series since 2012 and the 'Noles are fighting to keep their NCAA-record 36-year bowl streak alive. FSU has not looked great this year, averaging 22.6 points per game while giving up 30.6. They rank 102nd in total offense, even with the talents of Deondre Francois and Cam Akers in the backfield. The Gators have been flirting with danger in a few different games this season, but their defense often bails them out. They will look to keep a lot of pressure on Francois in this game, as he's been sacked 24 times this year. The 'Noles need to try to get Cam Akers going on offense, otherwise they don't stand a chance. I'll take the Gators in this one, Dan Mullen finishes his first Florida season off with a solid win against the rival. Florida 30, FSU 14.
#20 Syracuse at Boston College
The 'Cuse and the Golden Eagles are trudging off of rough weekends as they head into their game against each other. BC will look to get their ground game started again with AJ Dillon, as he's coming off his first 100+ yard performance since October. The Orange have a decent run defense, giving up around 170 per game on the ground, but Dillon is not an easy back to bring down. The Eagles will focus their offense around him and look to control the clock. For the 'Cuse, their chances to win really depend on the health of Senior QB Eric Dungey. Dungey went down early in the Notre Dame game with an injury last week, and the offense lost it's mojo. Without Dungey, Tommy DeVito will be in at QB. Boston College's defense isn't quite the Irish's, but they're not easy to get by. If Dungey plays, they have a shot, but I'm sticking with Boston College in this game. AJ Dillion runs away with it and the Eagles win 24-10.
Purdue at Indiana (Battle for the Old Oaken Bucket)
The Boilermakers and the Hoosiers square off in Bloomington as they both look to get bowl eligible while preventing their arch rival from doing the same. Indiana's typically sturdy defense has struggled this year, giving up 30 points per game and over 420 yards on average. They played tough at Michigan last week, but their offense doesn't really produce much. Purdue on the other hand, their offense is one of the most dynamic in the nation. The Boilermakers rank 23rd in total offense, averaging 460 yards per game. David Blough has really taken over in his senior season, throwing for 3,211 yards with 22 TDs and 7 picks. His stats are helped by the fact that one of the best players in the nation just happens to be his top wide receiver. Freshman standout Rondale Moore has 1,023 yards receiving on the year to go along with 10 touchdowns. He's easily one of the most dynamic players I've ever had the privilege of watching in person. Indiana will play them tough, as always, but I cannot pick against Rondale Moore. Boilermakers win the Bucket and Bowl eligibility. Purdue is going to try to give a reason for Jeff Brohm to stick around with a 34-24 victory.
Auburn at #1 Alabama (The Iron Bowl)
Can we have another Kick-6 please? Can we have anything that knocks off the Crimson Tide? The answer is no. Tua Tagovailoa and the Tide look to continue Rolling as arch rival Auburn comes into town and unfortunately, I don't think the Tigers will be coming out with a win. Alabama looks to be absolutely unstoppable this season, averaging 48.7 points per game and giving up just 13. They've already handed Tua the Heisman Trophy (not necessarily a bad choice, but they do need to talk about other players in the nation too) and Bama will likely roll onto another National Championship. Auburn is always a factor, especially in the Iron Bowl, but fans are starting to get frustrated with Gus Malzahn and his lack of offensive production. I don't think this will be his last Iron Bowl, but they will definitely be looking for more production next season. The Tigers defense is always tough, and they will be looking to slow down the Tide's offense. I think they'll keep it close for a bit, but Bama is to much right now. Crimson Tide win it 30-17.
Maryland at #12 Penn State
Now this might not seem like a marquee game, but there's bad blood here and these teams have a lot to play for. Starting with the Terps, they're one win away from bowl eligibility, (after screwing up their upset on Ohio State last week). This team has a lot of talent and is really starting to build a new culture since the departure of DJ Durkin. It will take a while before they're cured of everything he did to the program, but you can tell there's a new energy around this team. I think that's what makes them so dangerous, combined with the young talent. Freshman Running Back Anthony McFarland has taken the world by storm over the last couple weeks, rushing for 508 yards and 2 TDs in just the last two games combined. He had just a shade under 300 against the Buckeyes and will look to challenge Penn State's 80th ranked rush defense, which gives up an average of 177 yards on the ground per game. The Nittany Lions have a secret weapon though, and his name is Trace McSorley. Okay, maybe he's not really a secret, but McSorley is one of the best leaders in all of college football. He's very rarely lost during his entire football career, and has numerous weapons on what still can be a very deadly offense. Along with RB Miles Sanders and WR KJ Hamler, they should be able to put up some points against Marlyand's 55th ranked total defense. The weather is not going to be great out in Happy Valley, so that could dampen the points a bit, but I expect both offenses to play well and really challenge each other. Tough, hard fought game between rivals, but there's no way I'm picking against Trace McSorley on Senior Day. Penn State 31, Maryland 23.
#24 Pitt at Miami
After handing Miami their first loss of the season last year, Pitt looks to break out their own turnover chain again against the Hurricanes as they square off in Hard Rock Stadium. The Panthers already have the Coastal Division locked up, but must get by Miami before they take on Clemson. The Panthers' offensive attack will be met with brute force as Miami's 3rd ranked total defense will be in their way. The Hurricanes are giving up just 275 yards and 19.5 points per game on average. They've been able to stick around in games because of their defense, but their offense often fails to help out. Miami ranks 93rd in total offense and have scored above 21 points just once in the last 5 weeks. Pitt again, has a very dynamic offense, lead by the QB-RB duo of Kenny Picket and Qadree Ollison. Ollison has over 1,100 yards on the season and 10 TDs. Pitt will need to focus on the ground game in order to get the victory in this one, but I like their chances. Even with Clemson looming in the not-so-distant future, the Panthers take care of business 37-20.
Arizona State at Arizona (Duel in the Desert, Battle for the Territorial Cup)
The Sun Devils had a shot to win the South Division of the Pac-12, but after a tough road loss to Oregon last week, the Utes took the crown and Arizona State will not just play for pride against Arizona. Don't think they won't be fighting though, with two first year head coaches and a lot of talent on offense for both teams, this should be a fairly interesting game. The Wildcats are led by star QB Khalil Tate, who is easily a Heisman-caliber player. Tate has 2,248 passing yards this season to go along with 23 TDs and 7 picks. His legs are what really scare defenses though, as he's rushed for another couple scores on the ground this season. While he hasn't been as effective on the ground this year (by design), Sophomore RB J.J. Taylor has picked up the slack. Taylor ranks 6th in the nation for rushing with 1,290, and will be a huge focal point in this game. The Sun Devils give up around 150 yards on the ground per game, so we'll see how much damage Arizona can do. Flipping to the other side, we look no further than the QB-WR duo of Manny Wilkins and N'Keal Harry. I've always been impressed with Wilkins' play throughout his career, and this year is no different. He's thrown for over 2,600 yards with 18 TDs and just 4 picks. He's also added another 7 scores on the ground and just makes really good decisions with the ball. N'Keal Harry leads the team with 1,033 yards and 9 TDs, he's one of the most talented players in the country. Finally, a big part of their offense that is often overlooked because of Wilkins and Harry, their running back, Eno Benjamin. Benjamin ranks 3rd in the nation for rushing, so we will see a great battle with the ground game today. I've been impressed with the Sun Devils all season, and I'll take them with a big win against the rival on the road. Herm Edwards draws first blood in the rivalry with a 38-28 victory.
BYU at #17 Utah (The Holy War, Battle for the Beehive Boot)
The Cougars have fallen off the face of the Earth after their upset against the Badgers in Camp Randall early in the season, and Wisconsin kind of did too. Regardless, BYU travels just 40 minutes North to take on their arch rival Utes, who have just claimed victory on the Pac-12 South. Now this game won't have any affect to the conference, but Utah is looking to set themselves up for a possible Rose Bowl bid, and nothing fuels that better than beating your rival. BYU has had some key injuries this season, but none bigger than star RB Squally Canada. Lopini Katoa has taken over in his place though, rushing for 155 yards and 4 TDs last week. Canada may be in the mix today, but they'll be running up against a brick wall, a.k.a. Utah's 14th ranked defense. The Utes have been tough all year on that side of the ball, and I think that's the difference maker in this game. They will cause all sorts of havoc for the Cougars, and Utah wins this one 30-14
#21 Utah State at #23 Boise State
While not a complete rivalry, this game could start to become one. The winner of this game will take the Mountain Division crown and face off against Fresno State in the Mountain West Conference Championship. The Aggies have been the biggest "under the radar" team in 2018, losing just their opener to Michigan State on the road (MSU had a last second TD to win) and dominating nearly everyone since. Sophomore QB Jordan Love is a dark horse Heisman contender next year, as he's thrown for 2,845 yards while completing 66.4% of his passes with 25 TDs and just 4 picks. He's added another 6 TDs on the ground, and is not easy to bring down, being sacked only 7 times on the year. However, they are playing on the road, and as many of you know, it's not easy to win on the Smurf Turf. The Bronco's are tough to beat at home (mostly because you can't see their players wearing blue on the blue turf), and they are led by Senior QB Brett Rypien. Rypien has thrown for 3,270 yards this season with a 28:7 TD to INT ratio and an impressive 68.5% completion percentage. Alexander Mattison leads the ground game with 13 TDs, but this will be a QB duel. Both defenses give up just 22 points per game on average and under 375 total yards. I would love to see Utah State pull this upset here, but I think Rypien's experience will be the difference maker on his home turf. Jordan Love plays well, but he'll have to wait his turn to win this budding rivalry. Go Aggies, but the Broncos win 35-31.
#7 LSU at #22 Texas A&M
The Aggies are looking for their first win in this rivalry series since joining the SEC, and Jimbo Fisher just might be the guy to do that. I'm still not convinced on LSU (they've played with my trust far too much), and I don't like them being ranked #7 (Wazzu should be above them). So the easiest way for this to go down is for Texas A&M to come after LSU QB Joe Burrow with a relentless pass rush. Burrow has been sacked 27 times so far this season, and the Aggies are averaging a tad under 3 sacks per game. I think A&M will be able to shut down the run, forcing LSU to air it out, thus resulting in the pass rush. However, you need to score points to win and that means A&M QB Kellen Mond and RB Trayveon Williams will need to break through the Tigers' tough defense. They only give up 16 points and 330 yards per game on average, so moving the ball could be a struggle. The Aggies have advantage on the outside however, and I think the height and talent of their receiving corps will be the difference maker for their offense. If Mond can take care of the football, the Aggies should be able to pull this one out. Texas A&M 27, LSU 22.
#3 Notre Dame at USC
Our last hope of knocking the Irish out of the College Football Playoffs lie with the mighty Trojans of USC... unfortunately, they're not very mighty right now. After back to back Rose Bowl appearances, USC is trying to become bowl eligible with a win over the Irish. There are lots of fans calling for Clay Helton's head, but it's honestly just a rebuilding season for USC. They lost a first-round QB, their top rusher, receiver and lots of talent on defense from last year's squad. They're starting a true Freshman at QB and have not been able to establish much of a ground game to help him out, averaging just 137 rushing yards per game. Notre Dame is playing very stellar defense right now and Ian Book has brought this offense to an impressive level of efficiency. USC is never an easy team to face, especially on the road, but I like the Irish in this one. They look like a complete team and will prove that once again as they attempt to lock up a playoff spot. Upsets are always nice, but I doubt we see one here, Notre Dame 34, USC 21.
#6 Oklahoma at #13 West Virginia
The Big XII shootout of all shootouts. I've been waiting to watch this game all year because it features two of the best QBs in the game leading two of the best offenses in the game. There will be points for DAYS in this game, and I wouldn't be surprised if they both topped 50. West Virginia is coming off of a tough, last minute loss to Oklahoma State, crushing their (and mine for them) playoff dreams. Oklahoma is the Big XII's best chance of getting at team in the Playoffs, but I don't think it will happen. The Sooners do have Kyler Murray, the to-be Heisman runner-up, but their defense just gave up 40 points to Kansas.... Yeah, I said KANSAS. If they're allowing the Jayhawks to put up 40, Will Grier and company are going to have a field day. Now this is where it gets interesting, because if Oklahoma wins, they will play Texas (assuming they handle their business against Kansas) for the Big XII Championship, a rematch I'm sure they would look forward to. If West Virginia Wins, then Oklahoma would be bumped due to the tie-breaker Texas holds over them. All you really need to know in this game is offense. There will be a LOT of offense, and the QB who has the ball last will likely win the game. This is a complete toss up, but I like West Virginia at home. Fueled by their loss last week, they'll come out with a chip on their shoulder and be ready to go. Besides, it's rivalry week, Mom would be pretty upset at me if I picked Oklahoma. Grab your popcorn ladies and gentlemen, this one is going to be fun to watch! Mountaineers 48, Boomer Sooner 46.
#16 Washington at #8 Washington State (The Apple Cup)
The Pac-12's last chance for a playoff team has a big hurdle to conquer as they take on their arch rival Huskies out on the Palouse. Playing in Pullman will be a big bonus for the Cougars, but the Huskies are 5-0 in the last 5 years, winning the previous 3 by a combined score of 131-41. Wazzu will look to flip that script with Graduate-Transfer QB Gardner Minshew, a.k.a. the Stache Man. Minshew and his fabulous Mustache have thrown for a nation-leading 4,325 yards to go a long with his nation-leading 36 TDs compared to just 7 picks. He's completing 70.4% of his passes and uses every weapon possible, hitting 11 different receivers in their win against Arizona last week. The key player to watch however, is Cougar RB Max Borghi. The true Freshman has come on late in the season, but is a dangerous weapon both on the ground and through the air catching the ball. The offense has found a new spark with Borghi, and this kid is going to be a big play-maker down the road. On the other side, you have the deadly tandem of Jake Browning and Myles Gaskin for the Huskies. Washington's offense has sputtered over the last couple seasons, but these veteran players are never easy to handle. Wazzu has played some solid defense this year, and having watched a lot of their games, it's crazy to see how well they tackle and fly to the ball. I think they'll provide some good containment. The Huskies defense will have all eyes on them however, as they rank 16th in the nation, giving up just 16.6 points per game and 318 yards on average. The talent just oozes out of this squad, and they've kept their team in games when the offense isn't living up to the hype. Gardner Minshew will have to play his best game yet in order to knock the Huskies down a peg, but this kid has a Heisman vote from me and I think he can do it. Hopefully this spotlight allows him to at least get to New York, and hopefully allows Wazzu to move up in the CFB Playoff rankings! Cougars win a big one at home in the Apple Cup 31-28.
#4 Michigan at #10 Ohio State (The Game)
There is no reason to describe the hatred between these two teams, when you see the Maize and Blue go against the Scarlet and Silver, you know it's going to be a great game. This year the BIG 10 East Division crown will be decided by the victor, and whether the BIG 10 gets a team into the playoffs or not will also likely be decided. Looking at the stats, Michigan is the better team, by a mile. They've dominated nearly every game they've played this season, and their top ranked defense fears absolutely no one. The Buckeyes, while still incredibly talented, have struggled this year, especially during the second half of the season. They nearly lost at Maryland last week, and were simply lucky when the Terps missed a wide open pass on the two-point conversion that would've won the game. Dwayne Haskins has been impressive this season, throwing for 3,685 yards with 36 TDs and just 7 picks, but he's struggled when under heavy pressure. If you haven't watched the Wolverines yet this season, that's all they do. They have 31 sacks on the season and are often living in opponents backfield with 76 tackles for loss. Ohio State will need to get the ball out in space early with their wide receivers, but this is going to be a tough game to move the ball in. On the other side, Shae Patterson has really taken control of this offense, and has an 18:4 TD to INT ratio to prove it. Senior RB Karan Higdon leads the ground attack with more than 1,100 yards and 10 TDs, and he could have a big day against the Buckeyes, as they gave up nearly 300 yards on the ground to Anthony McFarland of Maryland alone last week. Now all of these stats point to a Michigan victory, right? Wrong. The key match-up of this game is Jim Harbaugh vs. Urban Meyer, and the coaching decisions made during crucial moments. I think Harbaugh is a solid coach, but he tries to overplay his hand at times, especially against Meyer and the Buckeyes. Urban, as much as I dislike him, is one of the best at in-game adjustments, and I think that will be the difference maker in this one. I hope the BIG 10 is able to represent in the playoffs, but Michigan is their only chance in my opinion, and I just don't think Harbaugh can beat Urban Meyer. We'll see if they prove me wrong, but I've got Ohio State beating Michigan 24-23.
Nebraska at Iowa (The Heroes Game, a.k.a. FARMAGEDDON)
The Huskers travel to Iowa City to take on the lowly, stinking Hawkeyes (sorry not sorry, it's rivalry week). The over-hyped birds are favored in this game, but Nebraska is easily the last 4-7 team you want to play right now, because they have confidence. They have confidence in their offense, in their coach, and a newly found confidence in their kicker and defense! Iowa is coming off a big win against Illinois, where their defense gave proof of their #6 ranking. However, they have not faced the likes of one Adrian Martinez yet, and this Freshman is ready to do damage. There are chinks in the Hawkeyes armor, and if Nebraska can establish a ground game early and stick with it, those holes will be opened up more and more. Nebraska has fallen short in this rivalry in recent years, but Iowa is quaking in their boots as Coach Frost rolls up to Kinnick, they know what he's capable of. His offense will be clicking today as Devine Ozigbo and Stanley Morgan are likely playing their last game as Huskers. Morgan needs just 77 more yards to become Nebraska's first ever 1,000 yard receiver, and you just know he's going to have a big day. Iowa's secondary is tough, but in their 4 losses, a lot of damage has been done through the air, especially the 205 yards form Alex Hornibrook of Wisconsin and the 333 yards from David Blough of Purdue. Look for Nebraska to find some holes in the zone coverage over the middle once the ground game opens up. As for the Hawkeye offense, they're often their own worse enemy. Nate Stanley is a very solid QB, but has flashes of inaccuracy in some of the biggest moments of the game. The Hawks haven't ran the ball very well this season, and Nebraska will be keying on their Tight Ends early and often. Noah Fant and T.J. Hockenson are two of the best players in the conference, so the Blackshirts will really need to keep them in check to win this game. It will be cold, it will be tough, but Adrian Martinez will show what he's really made of and this Husker team will show everyone what's to come for next year and beyond. I know Mom's ready to beat Iowa, and the Huskers are too. Nebraska wins it 26-21! GO BIG RED!
Side Note: Iowa's logo looks like Fred Flintstone's face turned on it's side.
Side Note #2: I'm excited to see the Wave on TV.
Thank you all for reading my Rivalry Week Predictions, and I hope you have a wonderful weekend! While this is a tough time for me and my family, I am extremely thankful for everything my mom taught me, and the passion she shared with me for Husker and College Football. This was always one of her favorite weekends as well and I'm sad to experience my first Rivalry Week with out the fiercest competitor I know. Thank you for everything Mom, and as you always taught me, GO BIG RED!
#CFBKnowItAll
Alex Fernando
Wednesday, November 21, 2018
Week 12 Reflection
No major changes in the CFB Playoff Rankings from Week 12, but we did get some interesting games and a few upsets as we head into the greatest weekend of the year. The Huskers sent their seniors out on top with great win against Michigan State and there were a few other crazy games throughout the day. This post will have my break down and analysis of the Huskers' win along with some other reactions from this past week in College Football, enjoy!
What a way for the Huskers to end their season in Memorial Stadium! A very tough Michigan State team found an even tougher Husker squad as they braced the frigid winds and snow of Lincoln, Nebraska this past Saturday. Senior day for the Huskers resulted in a 9-6 victory where not a single touchdown was scored. Nebraska's high-octane offense found it difficult to move against the Spartans top-ranked rush defense, so the Special Teams and Defense took their chance to own the spotlight. Yeah, you read that correctly, Nebraska's Special Teams and Defense were the difference in this grudge match. Prior to the game, there was a small ceremony honoring the late Sam Foltz and Mike Sadler, which was very special as this was the first meeting between the teams since their tragic deaths. If you haven't read my tribute post to Sam Foltz from a couple years ago, I highly recommend it, he was a great person to have at this University. I had a blast at my final Husker game of my college career, and it was even more special to bring my fellow tour guide Fernando to his first game! Celebrating the second-half comeback was made even more special standing with one of my best friends, Alaina. We've gone to a number of games together during our careers here and I can't wait for next season! With the snow, I know my Mom was loving every minute of it from above, and I cannot think of a better last Husker game as a Student. Now onto my breakdown of the game!
GREAT- I've decided to create a new category for this week, because the Defense played one of the best games I've seen in a long time. Now Michigan State is not the most dynamic offenses in the nation (110th in the nation), but even with that in mind, the Blackshirts stepped up in some of the most crucial times of the game. Keeping it close and giving their team the chance to ultimately win the game. Spartan QB Rocky Lombardi finished the game 15-41 for 146 yards and 1 Mick Stoltenberg interception. Their offense added another 143 on the ground, but were stopped in the redzone multiple times throughout the game. Mohamed Barry and Dedrick Young led the team with 8 tackles each, and the Blackshirts racked up 7 tackles for loss and 2 turnovers with the pick and a beautiful QB hit-fumble combo. The Spartans were held under 50% on third down conversions and brought great pressure with their blitz packages. The defense has been one of the biggest issues all season for Nebraska, and while there will continue to be a steep learning curve for the unit, this is a huge building block. I'm anxious to see how they follow up their performance against Iowa this week, but nonetheless, GREAT game by the Blackshirts. Definitely saw some flashes of old when watching this game.
GOOD- Barrett Pickering gets the GOOD award of the week, after going 3/3 on Field Goals and winning the game for the Huskers with a clutch 47-yard career long in the wind and snow. For a kid from Alabama, I guarantee this is the absolute worst weather he's ever played football in. Pickering struggled early in the season, but has quietly made his last 8 FG attempts, including the 3 on Saturday. While Special Teams has been a struggle this season, Pickering stepped up at the biggest moment. Husker fans finally got to see what I learned about this kid a couple years ago on his recruiting tour. This was the game he needed to boost his confidence going into next season, and I know he's going to keep improving. Still work to do, but our kicking game is on the rise, mark my words!
EXPECTED- The strength of Michigan State's defense is about what I expected coming into this game. I admit, I got a little point-crazy with my prediction, but regardless, the Husker offense struggled once faced against a top tire defense. Adrian Martinez and crew mustered up just 248 total yards and were 4/14 on third down. Martinez finished 16/37 for 145 yards and no scores or picks. The weather did play a major factor, but missing pieces like JD Spielman were also not helpful. Yes, Michigan State does have the number 1 rush defense in the nation, but I thought Nebraska needed to push that a bit more. There weren't many yards to be had in this game, but with so much wind and a young Quarterback, nearly 40 passes is a bit much. Either way, Nebraska played well enough to win and when the offense needed to move the ball to get into Pickering range, they did so. I expected this to be a tough, chippy, BIG 10 grudge match and was not disappointed. It's always a great game when these two teams meet.
BAD- Ball security. While only 2 fumbles were lost by the Huskers, 3 more hit the turf on Saturday and it's clearly an issue as it as been all season. Yes, the weather was bad, but it's not like the wind blew the ball out of their hands! Having played football in South Dakota, I understand bad weather and cold games. The Huskers really need to focus on keeping the ball in tight, especially in nasty weather. Michigan State is a tough, opportunistic defense, they take every chance they can to force you into a mistake. Adrian Martinez, as much as I love watching him run, is one of the worst offenders. High and tight boys, high and tight.
Overall, I cannot say enough about how much this team has grown since the start of this season. It was a rough beginning, but Nebraska is becoming a team who no one wants to play again, and that's when games get really fun. I can't wait to watch them knock off lousy Iowa (it's rivalry week people, get trash-talking) and to see how next season is going to look. This team is moving in the right direction and will be a force to be reckoned with.
Now for some other interesting stories and thoughts around CFB from Week 12:
- Ohio State narrowly escaped a major upset at the hands of Maryland. The Buckeyes fought back to win it in Overtime after Maryland missed a wide open 2-point conversion pass. They are set up for The Game with rival Michigan this week, and the winner will face Northwestern in the BIG 10 Championship.
- West Virginia falls to the Pokes of Oklahoma State and have fallen out of the Playoff race. Will Grier did his best, but didn't have quite enough magic at the end of the game. Kudos to Mike Gundy and the Cowboys for building the comeback in the second half, great game. Now West Virginia, Texas and Oklahoma all have a shot at the Big XII title game, but it depends on the outcome of West Virginia and Oklahoma this weekend. That's going to be a wild shootout and I can't wait!
- The Citadel tied Bama 10-10 at halftime, and that was about the biggest highlight in the SEC last week. We're just praying for crazy upsets in order to shake up the playoff mix.
- Notre Dame took care of Syracuse up in Yankee Stadium. Orange QB Eric Dungey went down with an injury early, likely contributing the the 'Cuse's 3 point performance, but the Irish played a complete game, definitely looking like a playoff team.
- Colorado has fired Head Coach Mike MacIntyre after losing their last 6 games after starting 5-0.
- Kansas dropped 40 on Oklahoma, proving yet again how terrible their defense is. Kyler Murray can make up for most of that on his own, but West Virginia could light up the score board against them.
- UCF jumped Ohio State for the #9 spot in the College Football Playoff, but we all know it won't mean much. They are one of the best teams and could hang with anyone in the nation. McKenzie Milton should be invited to New York for the Heisman ceremony, but won't... again.
- Speaking of the Heisman, why is no one talking about Wazzu QB Gardner Minshew?? The Mustache Man has lead the Cougars to a 10-1 record and threw a school record 7 TD passes to 6 different receivers on Saturday night. His stats are out of this world, completing 70.4% of his passes for 4,325 yards with 36 TDs and just 7 picks. Add in 3 TDs on the ground and you wonder why he's not being mentioned at all. Take notice of the team out on the Palouse, the Cougars are playoff material.
- Colorado State lost their game against Utah State in the most heartbreaking fashion. First off, I thought the Aggies would dominate this game, so kudos to the Rams for having a shot at the completed Hail Mary. Unfortunately the receiver had stepped out as he ran down the field, making him ineligible to be the first man to touch the ball, thus ending the game with an Aggies victory.
- Maurice Washington's hurdle over the Spartan defender was incredible. All the memes are even more incredible.
Hot Take Predictions:
1. Big XII will not get a team in the playoffs
2. Wazzu should be higher ranked than LSU and probably Oklahoma. They are playoff material but won't get in, sad.
3. I'd like to see Michigan prove me wrong for the conference's sake, but I don't think the BIG 10 will get a team into the playoffs...again.
Thank you all for reading my week 12 reflection post! Be sure to watch for my Rivalry Week Predictions coming out on Friday! Have a Happy Thanksgiving and GO BIG RED!
#CFBKnowItAll
Alex Fernando
What a way for the Huskers to end their season in Memorial Stadium! A very tough Michigan State team found an even tougher Husker squad as they braced the frigid winds and snow of Lincoln, Nebraska this past Saturday. Senior day for the Huskers resulted in a 9-6 victory where not a single touchdown was scored. Nebraska's high-octane offense found it difficult to move against the Spartans top-ranked rush defense, so the Special Teams and Defense took their chance to own the spotlight. Yeah, you read that correctly, Nebraska's Special Teams and Defense were the difference in this grudge match. Prior to the game, there was a small ceremony honoring the late Sam Foltz and Mike Sadler, which was very special as this was the first meeting between the teams since their tragic deaths. If you haven't read my tribute post to Sam Foltz from a couple years ago, I highly recommend it, he was a great person to have at this University. I had a blast at my final Husker game of my college career, and it was even more special to bring my fellow tour guide Fernando to his first game! Celebrating the second-half comeback was made even more special standing with one of my best friends, Alaina. We've gone to a number of games together during our careers here and I can't wait for next season! With the snow, I know my Mom was loving every minute of it from above, and I cannot think of a better last Husker game as a Student. Now onto my breakdown of the game!
GREAT- I've decided to create a new category for this week, because the Defense played one of the best games I've seen in a long time. Now Michigan State is not the most dynamic offenses in the nation (110th in the nation), but even with that in mind, the Blackshirts stepped up in some of the most crucial times of the game. Keeping it close and giving their team the chance to ultimately win the game. Spartan QB Rocky Lombardi finished the game 15-41 for 146 yards and 1 Mick Stoltenberg interception. Their offense added another 143 on the ground, but were stopped in the redzone multiple times throughout the game. Mohamed Barry and Dedrick Young led the team with 8 tackles each, and the Blackshirts racked up 7 tackles for loss and 2 turnovers with the pick and a beautiful QB hit-fumble combo. The Spartans were held under 50% on third down conversions and brought great pressure with their blitz packages. The defense has been one of the biggest issues all season for Nebraska, and while there will continue to be a steep learning curve for the unit, this is a huge building block. I'm anxious to see how they follow up their performance against Iowa this week, but nonetheless, GREAT game by the Blackshirts. Definitely saw some flashes of old when watching this game.
GOOD- Barrett Pickering gets the GOOD award of the week, after going 3/3 on Field Goals and winning the game for the Huskers with a clutch 47-yard career long in the wind and snow. For a kid from Alabama, I guarantee this is the absolute worst weather he's ever played football in. Pickering struggled early in the season, but has quietly made his last 8 FG attempts, including the 3 on Saturday. While Special Teams has been a struggle this season, Pickering stepped up at the biggest moment. Husker fans finally got to see what I learned about this kid a couple years ago on his recruiting tour. This was the game he needed to boost his confidence going into next season, and I know he's going to keep improving. Still work to do, but our kicking game is on the rise, mark my words!
EXPECTED- The strength of Michigan State's defense is about what I expected coming into this game. I admit, I got a little point-crazy with my prediction, but regardless, the Husker offense struggled once faced against a top tire defense. Adrian Martinez and crew mustered up just 248 total yards and were 4/14 on third down. Martinez finished 16/37 for 145 yards and no scores or picks. The weather did play a major factor, but missing pieces like JD Spielman were also not helpful. Yes, Michigan State does have the number 1 rush defense in the nation, but I thought Nebraska needed to push that a bit more. There weren't many yards to be had in this game, but with so much wind and a young Quarterback, nearly 40 passes is a bit much. Either way, Nebraska played well enough to win and when the offense needed to move the ball to get into Pickering range, they did so. I expected this to be a tough, chippy, BIG 10 grudge match and was not disappointed. It's always a great game when these two teams meet.
BAD- Ball security. While only 2 fumbles were lost by the Huskers, 3 more hit the turf on Saturday and it's clearly an issue as it as been all season. Yes, the weather was bad, but it's not like the wind blew the ball out of their hands! Having played football in South Dakota, I understand bad weather and cold games. The Huskers really need to focus on keeping the ball in tight, especially in nasty weather. Michigan State is a tough, opportunistic defense, they take every chance they can to force you into a mistake. Adrian Martinez, as much as I love watching him run, is one of the worst offenders. High and tight boys, high and tight.
Overall, I cannot say enough about how much this team has grown since the start of this season. It was a rough beginning, but Nebraska is becoming a team who no one wants to play again, and that's when games get really fun. I can't wait to watch them knock off lousy Iowa (it's rivalry week people, get trash-talking) and to see how next season is going to look. This team is moving in the right direction and will be a force to be reckoned with.
Now for some other interesting stories and thoughts around CFB from Week 12:
- Ohio State narrowly escaped a major upset at the hands of Maryland. The Buckeyes fought back to win it in Overtime after Maryland missed a wide open 2-point conversion pass. They are set up for The Game with rival Michigan this week, and the winner will face Northwestern in the BIG 10 Championship.
- West Virginia falls to the Pokes of Oklahoma State and have fallen out of the Playoff race. Will Grier did his best, but didn't have quite enough magic at the end of the game. Kudos to Mike Gundy and the Cowboys for building the comeback in the second half, great game. Now West Virginia, Texas and Oklahoma all have a shot at the Big XII title game, but it depends on the outcome of West Virginia and Oklahoma this weekend. That's going to be a wild shootout and I can't wait!
- The Citadel tied Bama 10-10 at halftime, and that was about the biggest highlight in the SEC last week. We're just praying for crazy upsets in order to shake up the playoff mix.
- Notre Dame took care of Syracuse up in Yankee Stadium. Orange QB Eric Dungey went down with an injury early, likely contributing the the 'Cuse's 3 point performance, but the Irish played a complete game, definitely looking like a playoff team.
- Colorado has fired Head Coach Mike MacIntyre after losing their last 6 games after starting 5-0.
- Kansas dropped 40 on Oklahoma, proving yet again how terrible their defense is. Kyler Murray can make up for most of that on his own, but West Virginia could light up the score board against them.
- UCF jumped Ohio State for the #9 spot in the College Football Playoff, but we all know it won't mean much. They are one of the best teams and could hang with anyone in the nation. McKenzie Milton should be invited to New York for the Heisman ceremony, but won't... again.
- Speaking of the Heisman, why is no one talking about Wazzu QB Gardner Minshew?? The Mustache Man has lead the Cougars to a 10-1 record and threw a school record 7 TD passes to 6 different receivers on Saturday night. His stats are out of this world, completing 70.4% of his passes for 4,325 yards with 36 TDs and just 7 picks. Add in 3 TDs on the ground and you wonder why he's not being mentioned at all. Take notice of the team out on the Palouse, the Cougars are playoff material.
- Colorado State lost their game against Utah State in the most heartbreaking fashion. First off, I thought the Aggies would dominate this game, so kudos to the Rams for having a shot at the completed Hail Mary. Unfortunately the receiver had stepped out as he ran down the field, making him ineligible to be the first man to touch the ball, thus ending the game with an Aggies victory.
- Maurice Washington's hurdle over the Spartan defender was incredible. All the memes are even more incredible.
Hot Take Predictions:
1. Big XII will not get a team in the playoffs
2. Wazzu should be higher ranked than LSU and probably Oklahoma. They are playoff material but won't get in, sad.
3. I'd like to see Michigan prove me wrong for the conference's sake, but I don't think the BIG 10 will get a team into the playoffs...again.
Thank you all for reading my week 12 reflection post! Be sure to watch for my Rivalry Week Predictions coming out on Friday! Have a Happy Thanksgiving and GO BIG RED!
#CFBKnowItAll
Alex Fernando
Saturday, November 17, 2018
Week 12 Predictions
Another week of College Football is upon us, and it's time for my Gameday Predictions for Week 12. While there aren't a lot of key match-ups this week, there's always still some games that sneak up on you. I'll highlight some of the interesting games of this week and give my predictions on the winners. Thanks for all the support and enjoy!
Week 11 Prediction Results: 10-5
Overall Prediction Results: 78-62
TCU at Baylor
The Horned Frogs have suffered more injuries than imaginable this season, but still have a shot at a bowl game with wins in their next two games. With a rivalry game against the Bears and a home date with Mike Gundy and the Pokes to follow, it doesn't look great. But Gary Patterson is never a coach I would doubt too often. Michael Collins has taken over at Quarterback and has played well in the last few games. He'll look to lean on Sophomore wideout Jalen Reagor as they take on the 96th ranked Baylor defense. Reagor leads the team with 60 catches, 884 yards and 7 TDs this season, one of the few bright spots for TCU. Baylor's offense is led by Charlie Brewer and his 2,164 passing yards. Ex-Tennessee running back Jalen Hurd is now the Bears' top receiver with 837 yards and 4 TDs. With this game being in Waco, the Bears definitely have the edge. TCU has struggled all season on the road, and while they'll keep it close, I think Baylor pulls away late. Next season the Frogs will be a team to watch though. Baylor 36, TCU 21.
Pitt at Wake Forest
A very dangerous game takes place in North Carolina as the Pitt Panthers travel to take on the Demon Deacons. The Panthers lead the Coastal division of the ACC and look forward to squaring off against the Tigers of Clemson if they can win one more game to lock up the division. They are averaging around 30 points per game while giving up that same 30 on defense. That number is a bit skewed because of their early season losses, as Pitt has won their last three games by a combined 129-80. They've played well, dominating the weaker division of the ACC, but Wake Forest will not be an easy win. The Demon Deacons are a dangerous team, with a deadly duo of QB Sam Hartman and WR Greg Dortch. Dortch is only 79 yards away from 1,000 receiving on the season and has 7 TDs. Pitt ranks 84th in pass defense, giving up nearly 250 yards per game through the air. Wake will definitely look to take advantage of that early, spreading the ball out as much as possible. I think they'll do some damage in this game, but Pitt's ground game with Quadree Ollison will take over late and lead them to victory. Pitt 38, Wake 31.
#19 Utah at Colorado
The Buffs have floundered after a 5-0 start, losing their last 5 games. Utah is on the rise, even after injuries have removed some of their top players, and are looking to win the Pac-12 South Division. They currently sit in second place behind Arizona State, who owns the tiebreaker, but the Sun Devils have a tough couple weeks ahead. If the Utes can handle the Buffaloes on the road, they will simply need to sit back and wait to see what happens with ASU. Focusing on this game, Utah will look to lock down Colorado's deceased offense with their 19th ranked defense. The Utes are giving up an average of just 19.7 points per game and just 101 on the ground. They will look to put a lot of pressure on Buffs QB Steven Montez while ensuring the ball stays away form star wideout Laviska Shenault Jr. I like what the Utes bring to the table in this one, especially with the ground game of Zack Moss, who's accounted for 1,092 yards and 11 TDs on the ground this season. Utah dominates this game 33-14.
#9 West Virginia at Oklahoma State
Another classic Big XII shootout looks to be in the making as Taylor Cornelius and Will Grier dual in a QB battle likely to light up the scoreboard. The Pokes narrowly lost to the rival Sooners last week and now host the high-powered offense of West Virginia. Neither defense is very good at slowing down opponents, and with how dominant these offenses are, we should be in for a good show. It's almost impossible to predict these kinds of games, but I think West Virginia will have the edge for a couple of reasons. Will Grier is playing lights out at the moment, throwing just 1 pick in his last 3 games. I expect that trend to continue as Kyler Murray lit up the Pokes for 349 through the air a week ago. Also, West Virginia's pass rush will cause a lot of issues for Taylor Cornelius. He's been sacked 27 times already this season and the Mountaineers are averaging 2.33 sacks per game. I think West Virginia is the stronger team, and they'll prove that late in the game. Grier will be great as always, but watch the running backs in this game. Justice Hill is an X-factor for OSU, but Kennedy McKoy is starting to make a name for himself in the WVU backfield. Mountaineers 44, Cowboys 34.
#24 Cincinnati at #11 UCF
College Gameday is on location in Orlando to showcase the Cincy-UCF game tonight. The Knights are looking for their 23 straight victory, but also looking to make a statement to the College Football Playoff Committee. As usual, they're not getting any respect from the committee, seemingly being left out the playoff discussion before it's even truly began. Now as they look forward to the game tonight, they will face a 9-1 Cincy team looking to take over the East Division of the American Athletic Conference. The Bearcats have a very balanced attack on offense, rushing for an average of 235 and throwing for an average of 212. Freshman QB Desmond Ridder has played very well this season, and they score 35 points per game on average. Cincy brings a stifling defense into Spectrum Stadium, ranking 6th in the nation. It will be matched up against the 2nd ranked offense in the nation with UCF. McKenzie Milton has been phenomenal this season, accounting for 29 total touchdowns (21 passing & 8 rushing). It's absolutely criminal that he wasn't at least invited to the Heisman Ceremony last year, and is still not getting any looks this year. Having watched this kid play, I cannot imagine trying to plan a defense around him. Milton is the X-factor in this game, so watch out for his play-making ability. It might not meant much in the long run, but this will be a great game to watch later tonight. UCF Knights 37, Cincy Bearcats 24.
#16 Iowa State at #15 Texas
The battle for the best second-tier Big XII team is on as the Cyclones travel South to take on the Longhorns. Both of these teams actually have a shot at getting to the Big XII Championship, but due to an interesting assortment of tie breakers, everyone needs some help. For West Virginia and Oklahoma, the math is simple, win and you're in the Big XII Championship. HOWEVER, they both play each other next week, leaving one of them with another loss. Now is where it gets tricky. West Virginia has the tiebreaker over Texas, but ISU has the tiebreaker over the Mountaineers. Oklahoma has the tie breaker over Iowa State, but Texas won the Red River Rivalry, giving them the tiebreaker of the Sooners. Texas and Iowa State both have games next week as well in conference, but they are against Kansas and Kansas State respectively, so both should be fairly easy wins to come by. This means that the winner of the ISU-Texas game has a strong possibility of making it to the conference championship. To complicate matters even more, the Cyclones have scheduled an extra game on December 1st in order to make up their cancelled opener. I'm honestly not sure what this means for them in terms of being able to go to the Conference Championship if they end up winning, so this will be an interesting two week saga to watch.... Now to focus on the actual game, Iowa State running back is suspended for the first half due to his role in the fight against Baylor last week, but the Cyclones will be happy to have him back in the second half. Texas will look to focus on their air attack, which averages 270 yards per game. Stud wideouts like Collin Johnson and Lil'Jordan Humphrey make life ridiculously easy on Sam Ehlinger, so expect Iowa State's secondary to be torched in this one. Iowa State is a tough team though, and they don't go away easy. Freshman QB Brock Purdy has been on an absolute mission this season, completing 68.6% of his passes and posting a 13:2 TD to INT ratio after playing in just 5 games. He hasn't thrown a pick in his last three games, and will likely give Texas a run for their money. This will be a very tight game, but I'll give the edge to Texas at home. Close all the way, but Texas finishes it off with a 30-28 victory.
#12 Syracuse vs. #3 Notre Dame
The biggest game of the day takes place in Yankee Stadium as the 'Cuse battle the Fightin' Irish. Notre Dame is just two wins away from a likely guaranteed playoff spot, but the Orange are not an easy team to tangle with. Senior QB Eric Dungey has nearly 2,200 passing yards on the season with a 14:5 TD to INT ratio. He's also added another 690 yards and 12 TDs on the ground, so Notre Dame's defense will really have their hands full in this game. On offense for the Irish, Ian Book is back and will be looking to take advantage of the weaker pass defense of Syracuse. The Orange give up an average of 261 yards through the air per game, giving Notre Dame lots of opportunities to pass the ball. Senior wideout Miles Boykin is 6'4 and will be using all of that frame to get up an over the Syracuse secondary. Notre Dame's biggest focus should be on the ground game though. If they can work the clock and keep Eric Dungey on the sideline, they will win this game. Dexter Williams averages nearly 7 yards per carry and has 10 TDs on the ground this season. He'll be a major focus of the offensive attack of the Irish today. Notre Dame wins the ground battle and a tough game in NYC. Irish beat the Orange 37-23.
Arizona at #8 Washington State
The Cougars host Khalil Tate and the Wildcats of Arizona before hosting their rival Huskies in the Apple Cup next week. Arizona's offense has dominated in recent weeks, now averaging 30.8 points per game and over 450 yards per game. Wazzu's defense has been steady this season, but will definitely be challenged tonight. As for the Coogs, their offensive mindset does not need to change, air it out with the stache. Gardner Minshew has nearly 4,000 yards on the season with 29 TDs and just 7 picks. Arizona gives up nearly 250 yards through the air per game, so this could get ugly. The Wildcats will keep pace early, but once the Cougar defense settles in, they will pull away. Gardner Minshew and his Mustache go to work and Wazzu wins 38-23.
Michigan State at Nebraska
The Spartans come to Lincoln as they get ready to battle the Huskers on a frigid Nebraska day. Last time Michigan State visited the Cornhusker State, they lost on a bit of a controversial play, so you know they're looking for blood. This always ends up being a great game when these two teams meet, and today should be no exception. Nebraska has the 13th ranked total offense in the nation while the Spartans bring the 21st ranked defense. Michigan State has the top ranked rush defense in the nation, which will be put to the test as Nebraska averages 226 yards on the ground per game. Adrian Martinez will give Sparty's defense a lot of headaches, and I'm anxious to see what Frost's offensive attack does against a top tier defense. On the other side, Nebraska's atrocious defense squares off against Michigan State's lack-luster offense. Brian Lewerke is not likely to play at QB for State, so they'll be missing a big play-maker for another game. It's going to be fun to watch this game for my last Husker home game as a college student, and I know Nebraska's going to win. There doesn't need to be any analysis, you just know it's going to happen. Adrian and the offense score just enough to make up another poor defensive performance and Nebraska wins 33-27.
Now for some quick hit predictions on other games around the nation:
Wisconsin at Purdue- This game honestly means nothing now as Northwestern has already won the division, but still an interesting match-up. Jeff Brohm may be jumping ship and headed to Louisville, so you've got to wonder what the Purdue locker room is feeling like, especially after getting whacked by Minnesota last week. I like the Badgers and their ground attack in this game, I don't think Purdue can slow them down. Badgers 34, Boilermakers 17.
USC at UCLA- The battle for LA takes place in Pasadena as the Trojans and the Bruins square off. Chip Kelly is looking for his first victory in this rivalry, but USC has a lot of talent to over come. UCLA has been steadily improving this season, but I think Clay Helton has a statement to make for his job this week. Trojans win 38-28.
Arizona State at Oregon- The Sun Devils are fighting to win the Pac-12 South but have two tough games to finish of the season. The first of the two comes in Autzen stadium as they take on Justin Herbert and the Ducks. Oregon and ASU both have a lot of offense, so this could be a shootout. This one is tough, but I think the Sun Devils are really playing good football right now. Sun Devils with a BIG road win 37-34.
#23 Utah State at Colorado State- This one won't be close, but I just want everyone to take notice of Jordan Love and the Utah State Aggies. This team averages nearly 52 points per game and over 515 yards of offense per game. K.J. Carta-Samuels will do some damage for the Rams, but Utah State shows why they will not be a fun bowl game opponent with a 49-17 victory.
Thank you all for reading my Gameday predictions and now time to sit back and watch the chaos! GO BIG RED!
#CFBKnowItAll
Alex Fernando
Week 11 Prediction Results: 10-5
Overall Prediction Results: 78-62
TCU at Baylor
The Horned Frogs have suffered more injuries than imaginable this season, but still have a shot at a bowl game with wins in their next two games. With a rivalry game against the Bears and a home date with Mike Gundy and the Pokes to follow, it doesn't look great. But Gary Patterson is never a coach I would doubt too often. Michael Collins has taken over at Quarterback and has played well in the last few games. He'll look to lean on Sophomore wideout Jalen Reagor as they take on the 96th ranked Baylor defense. Reagor leads the team with 60 catches, 884 yards and 7 TDs this season, one of the few bright spots for TCU. Baylor's offense is led by Charlie Brewer and his 2,164 passing yards. Ex-Tennessee running back Jalen Hurd is now the Bears' top receiver with 837 yards and 4 TDs. With this game being in Waco, the Bears definitely have the edge. TCU has struggled all season on the road, and while they'll keep it close, I think Baylor pulls away late. Next season the Frogs will be a team to watch though. Baylor 36, TCU 21.
Pitt at Wake Forest
A very dangerous game takes place in North Carolina as the Pitt Panthers travel to take on the Demon Deacons. The Panthers lead the Coastal division of the ACC and look forward to squaring off against the Tigers of Clemson if they can win one more game to lock up the division. They are averaging around 30 points per game while giving up that same 30 on defense. That number is a bit skewed because of their early season losses, as Pitt has won their last three games by a combined 129-80. They've played well, dominating the weaker division of the ACC, but Wake Forest will not be an easy win. The Demon Deacons are a dangerous team, with a deadly duo of QB Sam Hartman and WR Greg Dortch. Dortch is only 79 yards away from 1,000 receiving on the season and has 7 TDs. Pitt ranks 84th in pass defense, giving up nearly 250 yards per game through the air. Wake will definitely look to take advantage of that early, spreading the ball out as much as possible. I think they'll do some damage in this game, but Pitt's ground game with Quadree Ollison will take over late and lead them to victory. Pitt 38, Wake 31.
#19 Utah at Colorado
The Buffs have floundered after a 5-0 start, losing their last 5 games. Utah is on the rise, even after injuries have removed some of their top players, and are looking to win the Pac-12 South Division. They currently sit in second place behind Arizona State, who owns the tiebreaker, but the Sun Devils have a tough couple weeks ahead. If the Utes can handle the Buffaloes on the road, they will simply need to sit back and wait to see what happens with ASU. Focusing on this game, Utah will look to lock down Colorado's deceased offense with their 19th ranked defense. The Utes are giving up an average of just 19.7 points per game and just 101 on the ground. They will look to put a lot of pressure on Buffs QB Steven Montez while ensuring the ball stays away form star wideout Laviska Shenault Jr. I like what the Utes bring to the table in this one, especially with the ground game of Zack Moss, who's accounted for 1,092 yards and 11 TDs on the ground this season. Utah dominates this game 33-14.
#9 West Virginia at Oklahoma State
Another classic Big XII shootout looks to be in the making as Taylor Cornelius and Will Grier dual in a QB battle likely to light up the scoreboard. The Pokes narrowly lost to the rival Sooners last week and now host the high-powered offense of West Virginia. Neither defense is very good at slowing down opponents, and with how dominant these offenses are, we should be in for a good show. It's almost impossible to predict these kinds of games, but I think West Virginia will have the edge for a couple of reasons. Will Grier is playing lights out at the moment, throwing just 1 pick in his last 3 games. I expect that trend to continue as Kyler Murray lit up the Pokes for 349 through the air a week ago. Also, West Virginia's pass rush will cause a lot of issues for Taylor Cornelius. He's been sacked 27 times already this season and the Mountaineers are averaging 2.33 sacks per game. I think West Virginia is the stronger team, and they'll prove that late in the game. Grier will be great as always, but watch the running backs in this game. Justice Hill is an X-factor for OSU, but Kennedy McKoy is starting to make a name for himself in the WVU backfield. Mountaineers 44, Cowboys 34.
#24 Cincinnati at #11 UCF
College Gameday is on location in Orlando to showcase the Cincy-UCF game tonight. The Knights are looking for their 23 straight victory, but also looking to make a statement to the College Football Playoff Committee. As usual, they're not getting any respect from the committee, seemingly being left out the playoff discussion before it's even truly began. Now as they look forward to the game tonight, they will face a 9-1 Cincy team looking to take over the East Division of the American Athletic Conference. The Bearcats have a very balanced attack on offense, rushing for an average of 235 and throwing for an average of 212. Freshman QB Desmond Ridder has played very well this season, and they score 35 points per game on average. Cincy brings a stifling defense into Spectrum Stadium, ranking 6th in the nation. It will be matched up against the 2nd ranked offense in the nation with UCF. McKenzie Milton has been phenomenal this season, accounting for 29 total touchdowns (21 passing & 8 rushing). It's absolutely criminal that he wasn't at least invited to the Heisman Ceremony last year, and is still not getting any looks this year. Having watched this kid play, I cannot imagine trying to plan a defense around him. Milton is the X-factor in this game, so watch out for his play-making ability. It might not meant much in the long run, but this will be a great game to watch later tonight. UCF Knights 37, Cincy Bearcats 24.
#16 Iowa State at #15 Texas
The battle for the best second-tier Big XII team is on as the Cyclones travel South to take on the Longhorns. Both of these teams actually have a shot at getting to the Big XII Championship, but due to an interesting assortment of tie breakers, everyone needs some help. For West Virginia and Oklahoma, the math is simple, win and you're in the Big XII Championship. HOWEVER, they both play each other next week, leaving one of them with another loss. Now is where it gets tricky. West Virginia has the tiebreaker over Texas, but ISU has the tiebreaker over the Mountaineers. Oklahoma has the tie breaker over Iowa State, but Texas won the Red River Rivalry, giving them the tiebreaker of the Sooners. Texas and Iowa State both have games next week as well in conference, but they are against Kansas and Kansas State respectively, so both should be fairly easy wins to come by. This means that the winner of the ISU-Texas game has a strong possibility of making it to the conference championship. To complicate matters even more, the Cyclones have scheduled an extra game on December 1st in order to make up their cancelled opener. I'm honestly not sure what this means for them in terms of being able to go to the Conference Championship if they end up winning, so this will be an interesting two week saga to watch.... Now to focus on the actual game, Iowa State running back is suspended for the first half due to his role in the fight against Baylor last week, but the Cyclones will be happy to have him back in the second half. Texas will look to focus on their air attack, which averages 270 yards per game. Stud wideouts like Collin Johnson and Lil'Jordan Humphrey make life ridiculously easy on Sam Ehlinger, so expect Iowa State's secondary to be torched in this one. Iowa State is a tough team though, and they don't go away easy. Freshman QB Brock Purdy has been on an absolute mission this season, completing 68.6% of his passes and posting a 13:2 TD to INT ratio after playing in just 5 games. He hasn't thrown a pick in his last three games, and will likely give Texas a run for their money. This will be a very tight game, but I'll give the edge to Texas at home. Close all the way, but Texas finishes it off with a 30-28 victory.
#12 Syracuse vs. #3 Notre Dame
The biggest game of the day takes place in Yankee Stadium as the 'Cuse battle the Fightin' Irish. Notre Dame is just two wins away from a likely guaranteed playoff spot, but the Orange are not an easy team to tangle with. Senior QB Eric Dungey has nearly 2,200 passing yards on the season with a 14:5 TD to INT ratio. He's also added another 690 yards and 12 TDs on the ground, so Notre Dame's defense will really have their hands full in this game. On offense for the Irish, Ian Book is back and will be looking to take advantage of the weaker pass defense of Syracuse. The Orange give up an average of 261 yards through the air per game, giving Notre Dame lots of opportunities to pass the ball. Senior wideout Miles Boykin is 6'4 and will be using all of that frame to get up an over the Syracuse secondary. Notre Dame's biggest focus should be on the ground game though. If they can work the clock and keep Eric Dungey on the sideline, they will win this game. Dexter Williams averages nearly 7 yards per carry and has 10 TDs on the ground this season. He'll be a major focus of the offensive attack of the Irish today. Notre Dame wins the ground battle and a tough game in NYC. Irish beat the Orange 37-23.
Arizona at #8 Washington State
The Cougars host Khalil Tate and the Wildcats of Arizona before hosting their rival Huskies in the Apple Cup next week. Arizona's offense has dominated in recent weeks, now averaging 30.8 points per game and over 450 yards per game. Wazzu's defense has been steady this season, but will definitely be challenged tonight. As for the Coogs, their offensive mindset does not need to change, air it out with the stache. Gardner Minshew has nearly 4,000 yards on the season with 29 TDs and just 7 picks. Arizona gives up nearly 250 yards through the air per game, so this could get ugly. The Wildcats will keep pace early, but once the Cougar defense settles in, they will pull away. Gardner Minshew and his Mustache go to work and Wazzu wins 38-23.
Michigan State at Nebraska
The Spartans come to Lincoln as they get ready to battle the Huskers on a frigid Nebraska day. Last time Michigan State visited the Cornhusker State, they lost on a bit of a controversial play, so you know they're looking for blood. This always ends up being a great game when these two teams meet, and today should be no exception. Nebraska has the 13th ranked total offense in the nation while the Spartans bring the 21st ranked defense. Michigan State has the top ranked rush defense in the nation, which will be put to the test as Nebraska averages 226 yards on the ground per game. Adrian Martinez will give Sparty's defense a lot of headaches, and I'm anxious to see what Frost's offensive attack does against a top tier defense. On the other side, Nebraska's atrocious defense squares off against Michigan State's lack-luster offense. Brian Lewerke is not likely to play at QB for State, so they'll be missing a big play-maker for another game. It's going to be fun to watch this game for my last Husker home game as a college student, and I know Nebraska's going to win. There doesn't need to be any analysis, you just know it's going to happen. Adrian and the offense score just enough to make up another poor defensive performance and Nebraska wins 33-27.
Now for some quick hit predictions on other games around the nation:
Wisconsin at Purdue- This game honestly means nothing now as Northwestern has already won the division, but still an interesting match-up. Jeff Brohm may be jumping ship and headed to Louisville, so you've got to wonder what the Purdue locker room is feeling like, especially after getting whacked by Minnesota last week. I like the Badgers and their ground attack in this game, I don't think Purdue can slow them down. Badgers 34, Boilermakers 17.
USC at UCLA- The battle for LA takes place in Pasadena as the Trojans and the Bruins square off. Chip Kelly is looking for his first victory in this rivalry, but USC has a lot of talent to over come. UCLA has been steadily improving this season, but I think Clay Helton has a statement to make for his job this week. Trojans win 38-28.
Arizona State at Oregon- The Sun Devils are fighting to win the Pac-12 South but have two tough games to finish of the season. The first of the two comes in Autzen stadium as they take on Justin Herbert and the Ducks. Oregon and ASU both have a lot of offense, so this could be a shootout. This one is tough, but I think the Sun Devils are really playing good football right now. Sun Devils with a BIG road win 37-34.
#23 Utah State at Colorado State- This one won't be close, but I just want everyone to take notice of Jordan Love and the Utah State Aggies. This team averages nearly 52 points per game and over 515 yards of offense per game. K.J. Carta-Samuels will do some damage for the Rams, but Utah State shows why they will not be a fun bowl game opponent with a 49-17 victory.
Thank you all for reading my Gameday predictions and now time to sit back and watch the chaos! GO BIG RED!
#CFBKnowItAll
Alex Fernando
Wednesday, November 14, 2018
Week 11 Reflection
A few surprises, content top ranked teams, another crazy Bedlam shootout and a solid Husker victory remain as we leave Week 11 in the dust. Not much chaos came out of this past weekend, but we have solidified a few spots in a couple of the conference championships and even had a bit of shake up in the Heisman voting! This post will reflect back on the past weekend and have my breakdown and analysis of the Huskers win against Illinois, enjoy!
Nebraska dropped another 50-bomb on Saturday as they knocked the Fighting Illini 54-35. Adrian Martinez and Devine Ozigbo both came away with BIG 10 honors for their performances and once again the Husker offense was humming. Nebraska dominated Illinois 3rd worst defense in the country, racking up 606 total yards of offense (316 rushing, 290 passing) and going a perfect 3 for 3 on 4th down conversions. While a lot of points were put up, Nebraska still struggled in some areas on the offensive side and Illinois actually had the edge when looking at the stats. The Huskers were 4/12 on third down compared to 7/13 for the Illini. The big difference maker was special teams in this game... and I think there actually may be a special teams unit worse than Nebraska now! Illinois had 2 muffed punts leading to Husker turnovers and could not get much working in that area of the game. Nebraska even blocked a punt for a safety! The Husker defense struggled to defend against ex-Husker AJ Bush, and the Illini offense, but with 5 turnovers and lots of dropped passes by the Illinois receivers, Nebraska was able to pull away. I'll break down the game with my GOOD, EXPECTED and BAD categories below.
GOOD: The Husker offense rolled over a lack-luster defense on Saturday, so the GOOD award of the game goes to them. Nebraska had no issues scoring in this game, opening up with a 5 play, 75 yard drive in just over a minute to score their first touchdown. Devine Ozigbo busted out some career high runs and finished with 162 yards on just 11 carries and 3 TDs. His speed down the sideline was incredible and he looks 5 steps faster than his previous years on campus. The Man Stan had 8 catches on the day, racking up 131 yards and 2 long TDs over the Illinois secondary. Maurice Washington and JD Spielman both left the game with injuries, but will hopefully be okay to return against Michigan State. For Adrian Martinez, it was business as usual. An easy 290 yards passing with 3 TDs and one crazy interception that you have to tip your hat to Illinois for. He also racked up 55 and another TD on the ground. Opposing defensive coordinators have struggled to slow him down in nearly every game this season, and I cannot wait to see what this kid has coming in the future. Nebraska really seems to have figured out a good portion of Frost's offensive scheme, but there's still a long way to go. This offense will continue to grow, but I really like what I'm seeing so far!
EXPECTED: My expected aspect of this game was the success of AJ Bush in his return to Lincoln. Apart from his fumble, Bush played an exceptional game. The second of his two interceptions was a poor decision, but the game was over at that point. He finished with 187 yards on the ground and 3 TDs, averaging 7.5 yards per carry. The Blackshirts could not stop him for the vast majority of this game, and if Bush had any receivers who could catch, this would've been a very different game. Through the air, Bush finished with just 126 yards and completed just 11 out of 25 passes with 2 picks. I already mentioned the interception to Mick Stoltenberg, but the his first interception was a perfect pass in the hands of his receiver who then dropped it into Aaron Williams' lap. I would venture to say there were at least 8 drops by the Illini wide receivers in Saturday's game, leading to Bush's poor numbers. However, he used his legs well, and I'm surprised Lovie Smith and crew didn't just run a QB Draw every single play. Bush was a one man wrecking crew against the Blackshirts and is the primary reason Illinois was competitive for a while. As someone who was friends with him during his time as a Husker, I'm happy to see him playing so well. As a Husker fan, it really frustrates me when I can predict every time he's going to run the ball and exactly where he's going to run it, yet the defense still can't stop him. Great game AJ, it was fun to watch you work!
BAD: The bad award of the week definitely falls on the Blackshirts, especially the linebackers. As mentioned in the section above, AJ Bush had a field day running all around the field against Nebraska. Defensive Coordinator Erik Chinander has really struggled to limit opposing offenses this season, and Saturday was just another example. Because of all the drops by Illinois' wideouts, their offense was extremely one dimensional with the run game. I think Chinander was breathing a sigh of relief once Illini running back Reggie Corbin went out with an injury, because he was running just as wild as Bush was. The Blackshirts had numerous blitzes called throughout the game to put pressure on Bush, but never left a spy to prevent the scramble. Bush picked up countless first downs with his feet because there were no linebackers waiting at the second level to contain him. Defense has been an issue all season long, and if Nebraska wants to start competing for BIG 10 Championships and beyond, they need to get it fixed quickly.
Overall, a solid performance by Nebraska and another step forward in the process. I know Frost is happy with the offensive production, but there's still a long way for this team to go before they're going to be one of the top competitors in the nation. I'm getting really excited for next season, but Michigan State and Iowa better be careful, I think Nebraska is the last 3-7 team anyone wants to play right now, GO BIG RED!
Now for some other news from around CFB:
- Northwestern won their first ever BIG 10 West Division Title on the road against the Hawkeyes this past weekend. They are never an easy team to beat, and whoever faces them in the BIG 10 Championship better be ready for a fight. Also, Iowa's offense has taken a nose dive off a cliff in recent weeks. They do not use QB Nate Stanley and star TE Noah Fant to either of their maximum potentials and that's been detrimental to their season.
- The rest of the BIG 10 West is a complete mess as Wisconsin lost easily to Penn State and Minnesota rocked Purdue in the snow. Michigan still has a vice grip on the East, but the game with Ohio State will determine who plays Northwestern.
- Tennessee knocks off #11 Kentucky 24-7. The Wildcats probably had a huge hangover from the Georgia game, but I don't want to take anything away from 1st year head coach Jeremy Pruitt and the Vols. They racked up over 400 yards on a fairly solid Kentucky defense and really came to play.
- The Big XII drama continues as BEDLAM came down to a failed 2-point conversion, Texas mounted a late comeback on the road at Texas Tech and Baylor and Iowa State ended up brawling in their game. These last two weeks are going to be chaos for this conference.
- Speaking of chaos, we look to the Pac-12 South, where every single team had a shot at winning the division coming into last Saturday... yes, even 2-7 UCLA had a chance. The Bruins chances were spoiled by Arizona State who is fighting Utah for the top spot in the division. The Sun Devils have the tie breaker over the Utes, but the arch-rival Wildcats are right on their heels and there are some very tough games left on the schedule for each team. Utah has the easiest road by beating Colorado this weekend and waiting for Arizona State to lose, so get ready for some craziness.
- Wazzu is looking very strong after a solid win on the road in Boulder. If they can get past Arizona and rival Washington in the next couple weeks, a Pac-12 Championship might be enough to throw them into the playoff conversation.
- Kyler Murray has taken some 1st place Heisman votes away from Tua Tagovailoa, and the race is heating up as Will Grier pushes with a late season surge.
- With Louisville parting ways with Bobby Petrino, it's even more obvious how flat out amazing Lamar Jackson was for that school. He has arguably the most deserved Heisman in recent history because he carried what would've been a 2-3 win team to major bowl games and national power. I'm happy I had the opportunity to see him play live, incredible athlete.
Thank you all for reading my Week 11 Reflection post and be sure to watch for my Gameday Predictions on Saturday morning, GO BIG RED!
#CFBKnowItAll
Alex Fernando
Nebraska dropped another 50-bomb on Saturday as they knocked the Fighting Illini 54-35. Adrian Martinez and Devine Ozigbo both came away with BIG 10 honors for their performances and once again the Husker offense was humming. Nebraska dominated Illinois 3rd worst defense in the country, racking up 606 total yards of offense (316 rushing, 290 passing) and going a perfect 3 for 3 on 4th down conversions. While a lot of points were put up, Nebraska still struggled in some areas on the offensive side and Illinois actually had the edge when looking at the stats. The Huskers were 4/12 on third down compared to 7/13 for the Illini. The big difference maker was special teams in this game... and I think there actually may be a special teams unit worse than Nebraska now! Illinois had 2 muffed punts leading to Husker turnovers and could not get much working in that area of the game. Nebraska even blocked a punt for a safety! The Husker defense struggled to defend against ex-Husker AJ Bush, and the Illini offense, but with 5 turnovers and lots of dropped passes by the Illinois receivers, Nebraska was able to pull away. I'll break down the game with my GOOD, EXPECTED and BAD categories below.
GOOD: The Husker offense rolled over a lack-luster defense on Saturday, so the GOOD award of the game goes to them. Nebraska had no issues scoring in this game, opening up with a 5 play, 75 yard drive in just over a minute to score their first touchdown. Devine Ozigbo busted out some career high runs and finished with 162 yards on just 11 carries and 3 TDs. His speed down the sideline was incredible and he looks 5 steps faster than his previous years on campus. The Man Stan had 8 catches on the day, racking up 131 yards and 2 long TDs over the Illinois secondary. Maurice Washington and JD Spielman both left the game with injuries, but will hopefully be okay to return against Michigan State. For Adrian Martinez, it was business as usual. An easy 290 yards passing with 3 TDs and one crazy interception that you have to tip your hat to Illinois for. He also racked up 55 and another TD on the ground. Opposing defensive coordinators have struggled to slow him down in nearly every game this season, and I cannot wait to see what this kid has coming in the future. Nebraska really seems to have figured out a good portion of Frost's offensive scheme, but there's still a long way to go. This offense will continue to grow, but I really like what I'm seeing so far!
EXPECTED: My expected aspect of this game was the success of AJ Bush in his return to Lincoln. Apart from his fumble, Bush played an exceptional game. The second of his two interceptions was a poor decision, but the game was over at that point. He finished with 187 yards on the ground and 3 TDs, averaging 7.5 yards per carry. The Blackshirts could not stop him for the vast majority of this game, and if Bush had any receivers who could catch, this would've been a very different game. Through the air, Bush finished with just 126 yards and completed just 11 out of 25 passes with 2 picks. I already mentioned the interception to Mick Stoltenberg, but the his first interception was a perfect pass in the hands of his receiver who then dropped it into Aaron Williams' lap. I would venture to say there were at least 8 drops by the Illini wide receivers in Saturday's game, leading to Bush's poor numbers. However, he used his legs well, and I'm surprised Lovie Smith and crew didn't just run a QB Draw every single play. Bush was a one man wrecking crew against the Blackshirts and is the primary reason Illinois was competitive for a while. As someone who was friends with him during his time as a Husker, I'm happy to see him playing so well. As a Husker fan, it really frustrates me when I can predict every time he's going to run the ball and exactly where he's going to run it, yet the defense still can't stop him. Great game AJ, it was fun to watch you work!
BAD: The bad award of the week definitely falls on the Blackshirts, especially the linebackers. As mentioned in the section above, AJ Bush had a field day running all around the field against Nebraska. Defensive Coordinator Erik Chinander has really struggled to limit opposing offenses this season, and Saturday was just another example. Because of all the drops by Illinois' wideouts, their offense was extremely one dimensional with the run game. I think Chinander was breathing a sigh of relief once Illini running back Reggie Corbin went out with an injury, because he was running just as wild as Bush was. The Blackshirts had numerous blitzes called throughout the game to put pressure on Bush, but never left a spy to prevent the scramble. Bush picked up countless first downs with his feet because there were no linebackers waiting at the second level to contain him. Defense has been an issue all season long, and if Nebraska wants to start competing for BIG 10 Championships and beyond, they need to get it fixed quickly.
Overall, a solid performance by Nebraska and another step forward in the process. I know Frost is happy with the offensive production, but there's still a long way for this team to go before they're going to be one of the top competitors in the nation. I'm getting really excited for next season, but Michigan State and Iowa better be careful, I think Nebraska is the last 3-7 team anyone wants to play right now, GO BIG RED!
Now for some other news from around CFB:
- Northwestern won their first ever BIG 10 West Division Title on the road against the Hawkeyes this past weekend. They are never an easy team to beat, and whoever faces them in the BIG 10 Championship better be ready for a fight. Also, Iowa's offense has taken a nose dive off a cliff in recent weeks. They do not use QB Nate Stanley and star TE Noah Fant to either of their maximum potentials and that's been detrimental to their season.
- The rest of the BIG 10 West is a complete mess as Wisconsin lost easily to Penn State and Minnesota rocked Purdue in the snow. Michigan still has a vice grip on the East, but the game with Ohio State will determine who plays Northwestern.
- Tennessee knocks off #11 Kentucky 24-7. The Wildcats probably had a huge hangover from the Georgia game, but I don't want to take anything away from 1st year head coach Jeremy Pruitt and the Vols. They racked up over 400 yards on a fairly solid Kentucky defense and really came to play.
- The Big XII drama continues as BEDLAM came down to a failed 2-point conversion, Texas mounted a late comeback on the road at Texas Tech and Baylor and Iowa State ended up brawling in their game. These last two weeks are going to be chaos for this conference.
- Speaking of chaos, we look to the Pac-12 South, where every single team had a shot at winning the division coming into last Saturday... yes, even 2-7 UCLA had a chance. The Bruins chances were spoiled by Arizona State who is fighting Utah for the top spot in the division. The Sun Devils have the tie breaker over the Utes, but the arch-rival Wildcats are right on their heels and there are some very tough games left on the schedule for each team. Utah has the easiest road by beating Colorado this weekend and waiting for Arizona State to lose, so get ready for some craziness.
- Wazzu is looking very strong after a solid win on the road in Boulder. If they can get past Arizona and rival Washington in the next couple weeks, a Pac-12 Championship might be enough to throw them into the playoff conversation.
- Kyler Murray has taken some 1st place Heisman votes away from Tua Tagovailoa, and the race is heating up as Will Grier pushes with a late season surge.
- With Louisville parting ways with Bobby Petrino, it's even more obvious how flat out amazing Lamar Jackson was for that school. He has arguably the most deserved Heisman in recent history because he carried what would've been a 2-3 win team to major bowl games and national power. I'm happy I had the opportunity to see him play live, incredible athlete.
Thank you all for reading my Week 11 Reflection post and be sure to watch for my Gameday Predictions on Saturday morning, GO BIG RED!
#CFBKnowItAll
Alex Fernando
Saturday, November 10, 2018
Week 11 Predictions
As the season moves into the last few weeks, the stakes become higher and higher for every team, especially those at the top. We've got a tough road match-up for the #2 team in the nation along with some other ranked vs. ranked match-ups and of course... BEDLAM! I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see some chaos today, and as always that's what I'm rooting for. Check out all my week 11 predictions below!
Week 10 Prediction Results: 10-5
Overall Prediction Results: 68-57
#10 Ohio State at #18 Michigan State
Starting off with one of the big games of the day, we head to East Lansing as the Buckeyes take on Sparty. Ohio State was able to edge out Nebraska by 5 last week, and Michigan State had no issues with Maryland. This game is a tough pick because it's always a toss up with Michigan State. The Spartans have screwed me on multiple picks this season alone, but they still possess the top run defense in the nation. Nebraska made the Buckeye's sluggish rushing attack look like their strength last week, but I imagine they'll have a tougher time this week. Ohio State will need to protect Dwayne Haskins and give him time to throw the ball downfield in this one. Offensively the Spartans need to run through Brian Lewerke, and control the clock. Nebraska was able to win time of possession last week and with a defense like Michigan State's, if they control the clock, they could definitely win this game. Tough game, but I'll stick with the Buckeyes in this one, very tough road win. I'm rooting for the upset, but Ohio State wins 24-20.
Wisconsin at #20 Penn State
At the beginning of the season, this looked to be one of the highlight games of November in the BIG 10. While still a good match-up, there isn't much pressure tied to it. Both of these teams are down a couple games in their respective divisions and are now just fighting to get to a good bowl. The Badgers should be able to run just about every which way they want with Johnathan Taylor as the Nittany Lions are giving up an average of 173 yards on the ground per game and gave up 259 to Michigan in their beat down last week. Trace McSorley is by far the better QB in this game, but Penn State has been a hot mess in recent weeks. Neither one of these teams has played to their preseason potential to be honest. I want to pick the home team, because I don't know how Penn State could lose 3 home games in a season, but I like the Badgers in this one. Even with a backup QB in, I think Johnathan Taylor runs wild against the Swiss cheese defense of Penn State and Wisconsin gets a big win for the BIG 10 West Division. Badgers 30, Nittany Lions 27.
#16 Mississippi State at #1 Alabama
The Tide have rolled through everyone else so far this season, but now face a defense in Mississippi State which has given up just 9 touchdowns all season. Tua Tagovailoa probably won't have many issues with that statistic, but he did prove he's human last week, he threw his first interception *GASP*. The Bulldogs will look to keep pressure on him in order to get him off rhythm. There's always the potential for a hangover in this game, especially after surviving Death Valley on the road. Mississippi State is a very talented team and their defense should keep this game fairly tight. On the other side of the ball, Bama's defense is getting better with every game, but now they have to square off against Nick Fitzgerald and the rushing attack of the Bulldogs. Mississippi State averages 230 rush yards per game, but that hasn't been against the Tide. I expect Bama to hold their own and continue rolling in this one. Alabama 30, Mississippi State 17.
Oklahoma State at #6 Oklahoma (BEDLAM)
As I said last year, it's weird to talk about Bedlam without Thanksgiving and Rivalry Weekend around, but nonetheless, it's BEDLAM! Kyler Murray and the Sooners look to roll on as they fight for control of the Big XII and a potential playoff spot as their rivals from Stillwater look to play spoiler to yet another top ranked team. Senior QB Taylor Cornelius and the dynamic OSU receivers look to light up the scoreboard in another classic Bedlam shootout. Neither team has played very well on defense this season, so I expect a lot of points in this one, especially with the over/under at 80. Both teams have a ridiculous amount of offensive talent, but it's hard to pick against Kyler Murray's dual threat ability. The Pokes will keep pace, but Murray's ability to scramble and pick up key first downs with his legs will be the difference maker. Boomer Sooner and OU wins Bedlam 47-41.
Northwestern at #21 Iowa
Don't ask me why Iowa is still ranked after losing to Purdue and the Boilermakers are not ranked, I just don't get it. However, the 21st ranked Hawkeyes have another big game today at home as they take on the Wildcats of Northwestern. Northwestern is standing at #1 in the BIG 10 West Division and even has a couple games to give if they lose to Iowa today. Fun fact too, Northwestern is 12-1 in their last 13 BIG 10 Conference games, best record in all of the BIG 10. However, Iowa always likes to play spoiler at home and has the defense to do so. Nate Stanley has not played well over the last couple weeks, and Northwestern is not a defense to make mistakes against, they are very opportunistic. The Wildcats always love to make it tight, but I think the Hawkeyes defense will step up. As always, I'm rooting against Iowa, but they should handle Northwestern in this one. Hawkeyes 28, Wildcats 14.
#24 Auburn at #5 Georgia
The Tigers are looking to upset the DAWGS again this year as they go between the hedges to take on Georgia. Their offense seemed to find some rhythm last week in a comeback win against A&M, but Georgia has been rolling since their loss to the other Tigers of the SEC (LSU). They ran wild against Kentucky last week and I expect much of the same this week. The DAWGS average 100 more yards on the ground than Auburn gives up, so expect a lot of ground attack in this one from Georgia. On the other side of the ball, Auburn's offense will be going up against 13th ranked total defense in the country. The Bulldogs dominated Kentucky last week, limiting them to just 310 total yards and 17 points. An argument can be made for both Kentucky and Auburn on who the better offense is, but regardless, Jarrett Stidham and company will not have a fun day today. DAGWS pound the Tigers behind Elijah Holyfield and the run game 34-16.
#19 Texas at Texas Tech
The Longhorns have lost two straight, but are still fighting for a spot in the Big XII Championship. Texas Tech is not an easy task, being able to put up points on everyone with their high-powered offense. The Longhorns formidable defense has not been as formidable as of late, giving up 45, 38 and 42 points in 3 of their last 4 games. This should be another classic Big XII shootout, and I'm not so sure about how Texas is going to keep pace in this game. They're giving up over 250 yards per game through the air, and the Red Raiders air attack averages 375. Texas looked like they were back earlier this season, and Sam Ehlinger is always going to put up points, but I like the Red Raiders in this one. They've been so close to big wins this season, and I think they pull this one off at home. Texas Tech 39, Texas 34.
#2 Clemson at #17 Boston College
The Tigers face another tough road test as they ship up to Boston to take on the Golden Eagles. Clemson's defense is one of the most well known in the nation, ranking 3rd overall and looking to dominate yet again tonight. Boston College looks to play spoiler and take over control of the Atlantic Division with a win today. The big factor in the game to watch is the battle on the ground. This game features two of the best running backs in the nation with AJ Dillion (BC) and Travis Etienne (Clemson). Both backs are the focal point of each offense and are the true game-breakers in this one. AJ Dillion averages 5.5 yards per carry while Etienne averages 8.6. Dillon missed a couple games with injury this season, but still has 897 yards and 8 TDs on the ground this year. Etienne is just under 1,000 and has 15 TDs. Both defenses will have numerous headaches trying to slow down these two. BC's defense has been tough this year, but Clemson is still the team to beat in the ACC. This could be close for a while, but the Tigers pull away and finish this strong behind their defense and Etienne's rushing. Clemson wins a big road game 31-17.
Illinois at Nebraska
The Huskers are back home this weekend to take on the Fightin' Illini of Illinois. The Huskers played well at Ohio State, but defense and special teams are still causing issues that have been tough to overcome. Adrian Martinez should have a big day as the Illini rank 3rd to last in total defense in the nation. The Huskers' offense has exploded in recent weeks, and I anticipate a lot of points today as the weather chills in Lincoln. For Illinois, AJ Bush makes his return to Nebraska as the starting QB for the Blue & Orange. I met Bush during his time at Nebraska and I'm excited to see he's gotten his shot at QB. He's been playing well this season, throwing for nearly 1,000 yards thus far, but also recording 472 yards on the ground, including 3 100+ yard performances. The Blackshirts will have a tough time slowing down the former Husker as they often struggle against dual-threat QBs. I think Adrian will win the battle though and Nebraska walks away with a 48-35 victory! GO BIG RED!
Now for some Quick Hit Predictions on other Interesting games around the nation:
#7 LSU at Arkansas- The Battle for the Golden Boot is upon us as LSU travels North to take on the rival Hogs. Fresh off being the latest victim of the Crimson Tide, the Tigers look to bounce back against the lack-luster attack of Arkansas. I wouldn't expect much of a hangover for the Tigers, and their defense should make this a fairly easy win. LSU beats Arkansas 27-10, GEUX Tigers!
Oregon at Utah- The Utes were on their way to winning the Pac-12 South, but with injuries to key players, that dream is likely gone. Oregon comes in with too much speed and athleticism on offense, and the Ducks win this one 38-23.
UCLA at Arizona State- Believe it or not, UCLA still has a chance to win the Pac-12 South... yeah, you heard me right. They'd have to win out, but I don't think that will quite happen when they travel to take on the Sun Devils today. Manny Wilkins and N'Keal Harry have a big game and the Sun Devils beat the Bruins 37-21.
#8 Washington State at Colorado- The Buffs have lost 4 straight, but Wazzu always has that one slip up game during their season. This has the makings to take place in Boulder as Mike Leach has never won in Boulder, not even at Texas Tech. Star Wideout Laviska Shenault Jr. should be back on the field for Colorado, but I'm sticking with Gardner Minshew and the Coogs. Wazzu wins a tough road game 33-30.
#11 Kentucky at Tennessee- The Wildcats might be facing some hangover after the beat down Georgia put on them, and Tennessee has a shot at a bowl game with 2 wins in their last 3 games. This one could be tighter than Kentucky wants, but I think a heavy dose of Benny Snell should get them the win. Kentucky 27, Tennessee 24.
Cal at USC- The Trojans have their own shot at winning the Pac-12 South, but a tough date with the Golden Bears stands in their way first. Cal's defense has really turned it on in recent weeks, and they are a team that you just do not want to play. Being at home gives USC the edge, but this one could go either way. I'll take the Golden Bears in a sneaky road win, but this one will be tough. Final Score could easily flip, but I think it'll be Cal 20, USC 18.
Thank you all for reading my Gameday Predictions and I hope you all enjoy your Saturday of football! GO BIG RED!
#CFBKnowItAll
Alex Fernando
Week 10 Prediction Results: 10-5
Overall Prediction Results: 68-57
#10 Ohio State at #18 Michigan State
Starting off with one of the big games of the day, we head to East Lansing as the Buckeyes take on Sparty. Ohio State was able to edge out Nebraska by 5 last week, and Michigan State had no issues with Maryland. This game is a tough pick because it's always a toss up with Michigan State. The Spartans have screwed me on multiple picks this season alone, but they still possess the top run defense in the nation. Nebraska made the Buckeye's sluggish rushing attack look like their strength last week, but I imagine they'll have a tougher time this week. Ohio State will need to protect Dwayne Haskins and give him time to throw the ball downfield in this one. Offensively the Spartans need to run through Brian Lewerke, and control the clock. Nebraska was able to win time of possession last week and with a defense like Michigan State's, if they control the clock, they could definitely win this game. Tough game, but I'll stick with the Buckeyes in this one, very tough road win. I'm rooting for the upset, but Ohio State wins 24-20.
Wisconsin at #20 Penn State
At the beginning of the season, this looked to be one of the highlight games of November in the BIG 10. While still a good match-up, there isn't much pressure tied to it. Both of these teams are down a couple games in their respective divisions and are now just fighting to get to a good bowl. The Badgers should be able to run just about every which way they want with Johnathan Taylor as the Nittany Lions are giving up an average of 173 yards on the ground per game and gave up 259 to Michigan in their beat down last week. Trace McSorley is by far the better QB in this game, but Penn State has been a hot mess in recent weeks. Neither one of these teams has played to their preseason potential to be honest. I want to pick the home team, because I don't know how Penn State could lose 3 home games in a season, but I like the Badgers in this one. Even with a backup QB in, I think Johnathan Taylor runs wild against the Swiss cheese defense of Penn State and Wisconsin gets a big win for the BIG 10 West Division. Badgers 30, Nittany Lions 27.
#16 Mississippi State at #1 Alabama
The Tide have rolled through everyone else so far this season, but now face a defense in Mississippi State which has given up just 9 touchdowns all season. Tua Tagovailoa probably won't have many issues with that statistic, but he did prove he's human last week, he threw his first interception *GASP*. The Bulldogs will look to keep pressure on him in order to get him off rhythm. There's always the potential for a hangover in this game, especially after surviving Death Valley on the road. Mississippi State is a very talented team and their defense should keep this game fairly tight. On the other side of the ball, Bama's defense is getting better with every game, but now they have to square off against Nick Fitzgerald and the rushing attack of the Bulldogs. Mississippi State averages 230 rush yards per game, but that hasn't been against the Tide. I expect Bama to hold their own and continue rolling in this one. Alabama 30, Mississippi State 17.
Oklahoma State at #6 Oklahoma (BEDLAM)
As I said last year, it's weird to talk about Bedlam without Thanksgiving and Rivalry Weekend around, but nonetheless, it's BEDLAM! Kyler Murray and the Sooners look to roll on as they fight for control of the Big XII and a potential playoff spot as their rivals from Stillwater look to play spoiler to yet another top ranked team. Senior QB Taylor Cornelius and the dynamic OSU receivers look to light up the scoreboard in another classic Bedlam shootout. Neither team has played very well on defense this season, so I expect a lot of points in this one, especially with the over/under at 80. Both teams have a ridiculous amount of offensive talent, but it's hard to pick against Kyler Murray's dual threat ability. The Pokes will keep pace, but Murray's ability to scramble and pick up key first downs with his legs will be the difference maker. Boomer Sooner and OU wins Bedlam 47-41.
Northwestern at #21 Iowa
Don't ask me why Iowa is still ranked after losing to Purdue and the Boilermakers are not ranked, I just don't get it. However, the 21st ranked Hawkeyes have another big game today at home as they take on the Wildcats of Northwestern. Northwestern is standing at #1 in the BIG 10 West Division and even has a couple games to give if they lose to Iowa today. Fun fact too, Northwestern is 12-1 in their last 13 BIG 10 Conference games, best record in all of the BIG 10. However, Iowa always likes to play spoiler at home and has the defense to do so. Nate Stanley has not played well over the last couple weeks, and Northwestern is not a defense to make mistakes against, they are very opportunistic. The Wildcats always love to make it tight, but I think the Hawkeyes defense will step up. As always, I'm rooting against Iowa, but they should handle Northwestern in this one. Hawkeyes 28, Wildcats 14.
#24 Auburn at #5 Georgia
The Tigers are looking to upset the DAWGS again this year as they go between the hedges to take on Georgia. Their offense seemed to find some rhythm last week in a comeback win against A&M, but Georgia has been rolling since their loss to the other Tigers of the SEC (LSU). They ran wild against Kentucky last week and I expect much of the same this week. The DAWGS average 100 more yards on the ground than Auburn gives up, so expect a lot of ground attack in this one from Georgia. On the other side of the ball, Auburn's offense will be going up against 13th ranked total defense in the country. The Bulldogs dominated Kentucky last week, limiting them to just 310 total yards and 17 points. An argument can be made for both Kentucky and Auburn on who the better offense is, but regardless, Jarrett Stidham and company will not have a fun day today. DAGWS pound the Tigers behind Elijah Holyfield and the run game 34-16.
#19 Texas at Texas Tech
The Longhorns have lost two straight, but are still fighting for a spot in the Big XII Championship. Texas Tech is not an easy task, being able to put up points on everyone with their high-powered offense. The Longhorns formidable defense has not been as formidable as of late, giving up 45, 38 and 42 points in 3 of their last 4 games. This should be another classic Big XII shootout, and I'm not so sure about how Texas is going to keep pace in this game. They're giving up over 250 yards per game through the air, and the Red Raiders air attack averages 375. Texas looked like they were back earlier this season, and Sam Ehlinger is always going to put up points, but I like the Red Raiders in this one. They've been so close to big wins this season, and I think they pull this one off at home. Texas Tech 39, Texas 34.
#2 Clemson at #17 Boston College
The Tigers face another tough road test as they ship up to Boston to take on the Golden Eagles. Clemson's defense is one of the most well known in the nation, ranking 3rd overall and looking to dominate yet again tonight. Boston College looks to play spoiler and take over control of the Atlantic Division with a win today. The big factor in the game to watch is the battle on the ground. This game features two of the best running backs in the nation with AJ Dillion (BC) and Travis Etienne (Clemson). Both backs are the focal point of each offense and are the true game-breakers in this one. AJ Dillion averages 5.5 yards per carry while Etienne averages 8.6. Dillon missed a couple games with injury this season, but still has 897 yards and 8 TDs on the ground this year. Etienne is just under 1,000 and has 15 TDs. Both defenses will have numerous headaches trying to slow down these two. BC's defense has been tough this year, but Clemson is still the team to beat in the ACC. This could be close for a while, but the Tigers pull away and finish this strong behind their defense and Etienne's rushing. Clemson wins a big road game 31-17.
Illinois at Nebraska
The Huskers are back home this weekend to take on the Fightin' Illini of Illinois. The Huskers played well at Ohio State, but defense and special teams are still causing issues that have been tough to overcome. Adrian Martinez should have a big day as the Illini rank 3rd to last in total defense in the nation. The Huskers' offense has exploded in recent weeks, and I anticipate a lot of points today as the weather chills in Lincoln. For Illinois, AJ Bush makes his return to Nebraska as the starting QB for the Blue & Orange. I met Bush during his time at Nebraska and I'm excited to see he's gotten his shot at QB. He's been playing well this season, throwing for nearly 1,000 yards thus far, but also recording 472 yards on the ground, including 3 100+ yard performances. The Blackshirts will have a tough time slowing down the former Husker as they often struggle against dual-threat QBs. I think Adrian will win the battle though and Nebraska walks away with a 48-35 victory! GO BIG RED!
Now for some Quick Hit Predictions on other Interesting games around the nation:
#7 LSU at Arkansas- The Battle for the Golden Boot is upon us as LSU travels North to take on the rival Hogs. Fresh off being the latest victim of the Crimson Tide, the Tigers look to bounce back against the lack-luster attack of Arkansas. I wouldn't expect much of a hangover for the Tigers, and their defense should make this a fairly easy win. LSU beats Arkansas 27-10, GEUX Tigers!
Oregon at Utah- The Utes were on their way to winning the Pac-12 South, but with injuries to key players, that dream is likely gone. Oregon comes in with too much speed and athleticism on offense, and the Ducks win this one 38-23.
UCLA at Arizona State- Believe it or not, UCLA still has a chance to win the Pac-12 South... yeah, you heard me right. They'd have to win out, but I don't think that will quite happen when they travel to take on the Sun Devils today. Manny Wilkins and N'Keal Harry have a big game and the Sun Devils beat the Bruins 37-21.
#8 Washington State at Colorado- The Buffs have lost 4 straight, but Wazzu always has that one slip up game during their season. This has the makings to take place in Boulder as Mike Leach has never won in Boulder, not even at Texas Tech. Star Wideout Laviska Shenault Jr. should be back on the field for Colorado, but I'm sticking with Gardner Minshew and the Coogs. Wazzu wins a tough road game 33-30.
#11 Kentucky at Tennessee- The Wildcats might be facing some hangover after the beat down Georgia put on them, and Tennessee has a shot at a bowl game with 2 wins in their last 3 games. This one could be tighter than Kentucky wants, but I think a heavy dose of Benny Snell should get them the win. Kentucky 27, Tennessee 24.
Cal at USC- The Trojans have their own shot at winning the Pac-12 South, but a tough date with the Golden Bears stands in their way first. Cal's defense has really turned it on in recent weeks, and they are a team that you just do not want to play. Being at home gives USC the edge, but this one could go either way. I'll take the Golden Bears in a sneaky road win, but this one will be tough. Final Score could easily flip, but I think it'll be Cal 20, USC 18.
Thank you all for reading my Gameday Predictions and I hope you all enjoy your Saturday of football! GO BIG RED!
#CFBKnowItAll
Alex Fernando
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