Happy Thanksgiving Football Friends! Welcome to Rivalry Week. As you all know by now, this is my favorite football weekend of the year, and there is a great slate of rivalry games to pick on this year. This post has all of my predictions for the big games and what implications they have, enjoy!
Week 13 Prediction Results: 12-2
Overall Prediction Results: 109-51
Louisville at Kentucky
An in-state rivalry is always good for bragging rights, and I know both of these teams would love to take those home. The Cardinals travel to Lexington to take on the Wildcats as they look to move to 8 wins on the season. Everyone (including myself) did not have high hopes for Louisville this year, believing them to be one of the worst teams, not only in the ACC, but the nation as well. Their defense hasn't been the most impressive, but their offense ranks 28th in the nation, averaging over 450 yards and 34.5 points per game. Kentucky on the other hand has struggled this season after losing their star RB (Benny Snell) and pass rusher (Josh Allen) to the NFL. The defense is still tough though, giving up just under 19 points per game. This is a difficult game to predict, but I like Louisville to win because of their ground game with Javian Hawkins. Cardinals win it 27-23.
#19 Cincinnati at #18 Memphis
This is going to be a fun game. First off, this could easily be a preview of the American Conference Championship game, because if Memphis wins, they will square off with the Bearcats again in just another week. However, if Cincy pulls off the victory, they will face Navy in the conference championship. Aside from the American Conference trophy, New Year's Six Bowl Game implications are on the line as well. Memphis and Cincy both sit in front of #20 Boise State in the rankings, as all three fight for the opportunity to go to a New Year's Six bowl as the G5 representative. I would expect a good amount of points in this game, especially with Memphis. The Tigers average over 42 points per game, ranking 10th in total offense and have weapons all over the field. Junior QB Brady White is my different maker as he's thrown for over 3,000 yards with 30 TDs and just 7 picks. He's completing 67% of his passes this year and few defenses have found an answer for him. Defense is the name of the game for Cincy though, holding teams under 20 points per game on the season. Sophomore QB Desmond Ridder is talented as well, but I like Memphis at home. This will be a fun rematch in a week if the Tigers do win! Memphis 37, Cincy 26.
#23 Iowa State at Kansas State
The Cyclones and the Wildcats square off in Manhattan in one of the more underrated games of the weekend. Both teams are solid performers in the Big XII, but for ISU, they were so close to more. All four of their losses have been by 7 points or fewer, so don't overlook Matt Campbell's squad. Brock Purdy has had a tremendous season at QB, throwing for nearly 3,600 yards, 26 TDs and 9 picks so far, and K-State doesn't defend the best against the pass. However, the Wildcats do run the ball well, and they will be looking to control the line of scrimmage, ground game and clock in this one. Keeping opposing QBs on the sidelines is one of the best ways to win, and only Wisconsin and Utah do it better than the 2019 Wildcats. Manhattan, KS is always a dangerous place to play, and everything is pointing toward K-State winning this game. I think Iowa State is more talented and has the better coach though. Cyclones win a tough on the road 30-28.
#24 Virginia Tech at Virginia (Battle for the Commonwealth Cup)
Our annual Commonwealth Cup game has a bit more on the line this season as the Hokies travel to take on in-state rival Virginia. The Cavaliers are looking to claim the ACC Coastal division title, making it seven straight years of a new division winner. Unfortunately, they have to beat the Hokies to make that happen, and that's not something they've done since 2003. Virginia Tech has dominated this series, and will look to do the same as they carry the momentum of a three game win streak (two of which were shutouts) into the weekend. Virginia will have to slow down the Hokies new star QB, Sophomore Hendon Hooker. He's thrown for 1,134 yards and 10 TDs this season since jumping into the starting spot. The Cavaliers have a dual-threat QB to worry about as well though, Mr. Bryce Perkins. He's accounted for more than 3,000 total yards and 24 TDs this season, so the Hokies defense will be tested again. This is truly a battle of the QBs, and I would love to see Virginia win and go to the ACC title game. However, VT has the momentum and they just don't lose to the Cavaliers. Hokies 28, Cavaliers 20.
#1 Ohio State at #13 Michigan
The game everyone in the BIG 10 waits for, the Buckeyes and the Wolverines. Michigan has all the momentum after falling short of (most people's, not mine) expectations earlier this season. Their run game has developed and Shea Patterson has been playing well in recent weeks. Unfortunately, he has to play against a truly dominant defense this weekend, and I fully expect Heisman hopeful Chase Young to demolish the Michigan offensive line. Young is the best player in College Football and he'll prove that yet again this weekend. On offense, Ohio State will face another tough defense, and will likely have some bumps here and there as they did against Penn State. Michigan's defense will make some plays, but they won't be able to hold down Justin Fields, JK Dobbins and every other potential All-American on the Buckeye offense. I said it before and I'll say it again, Jim Harbaugh cannot beat Ohio State. Buckeyes roll 38-21.
Texas A&M at #2 LSU
This game went 7 Overtimes last year and they made a rule because of it. The Aggies travel to Death Valley as they complete their insanely difficult schedule against the #2 Tigers. Jimbo Fisher and A&M are always dangerous, they put up a good fight against the Bulldogs on the road last week, but this season has been brutal. They've faced FIVE top ten teams this season (including LSU) and have hung around. Star QB Kellen Mond hasn't been fabulous this season, but is always a danger for opposing defenses. I expect him to have a big night against the lackluster Tiger defense. However, the QB on the other side is a front runner for the Heisman Trophy and his name is Joe Burrow. Burrow has been incredible this season, leading the LSU offense to an average of 48.5 points and more than 560 yards per game. The Aggies have a tough defense, but there's just too much to handle here. LSU has two 1,000+ wideouts who've combined for 27 TDs and a running back with another 1,100+ and 5 TDs on the ground. Too much fire power to handle from LSU and the Tigers win 40-30.
#5 Alabama at #15 Auburn (The Iron Bowl)
Everyone is saying Bama's defense is bad this year, but there's no better test for that than your arch rival. The Tide Roll into Jordan-Hare Stadium looking to keep their Playoffs hopes alive against the Tigers. Sophomore QB Mac Jones has taken over for the injured Tua Tagovailoa, and he'll have to navigate his way through the formidable Auburn defense. The Tigers rank 14th in total defense, giving up just 16.2 points per game and just over 300 yards. They love to shut down the run and held LSU to 23 points, their lowest total of the season. Luckily for Jones, he has arguably the best offensive weapon set in the nation with All-American caliber receivers and an offensive line that's given up just 11 sacks this season. Auburn is lead on offense by Freshman QB Bo Nix, and he's not one to quit. He led the opening week comeback win against Oregon, battle Joe Burrow and LSU and nearly led the Tigers back against Georgia just a couple weeks ago. He'll test the Bama defense early and often with his dual-threat ability, and don't over look the Auburn receivers. They catch the ball very well by creating lots of separation from defenders and are not easy to bring down. I expect another slug fest in this year's Iron Bowl, but it's hard to pick against Alabama. Roll Tide as they win this one 27-21.
#7 Oklahoma at #21 Oklahoma State (BEDLAM)
It's BEDLAM folks! The Sooners travel to Stillwater to take on the in-state rival Pokes. Oklahoma has already solidified their spot in the Big XII Title game against the Baylor Bears, but no slip-ups are allowed if they want to fight back into the Playoff conversations. Oklahoma State has had a solid season under the radar, especially with the nation's leading rusher in Sophomore Chuba Hubbard. It's beyond me how this man is not in the Heisman conversation with 1,832 yards and 20 TDs thus far on the ground, but that's just the nature of the award, don't focus on great players if they don't have a chance to win it all. Anyways, Hubbard should fair well against the Sooners defense as they're giving up nearly 150 yards per game on the ground in November. Unfortunately for the Pokes, starting QB Spencer Sanders will not be available, and Hubbard alone won't be able to keep up with the Sooner offense. I fully expect Jalen Hurts and CeeDee Lamb to torch the Poke's defense repeatedly. This could be a bit of a shootout, but OU is too much to handle. Sooners win Bedlam 41-28.
#12 Wisconsin at #8 Minnesota (Battle for Paul Bunyan's Ax)
Another important BIG 10 Rivalry takes place this weekend, but in the West Division. Yes, the Husker game is quite important, but unfortunately it does not have BIG 10 Title and Playoff implications like the game in Minneapolis does. The Gophers host the Badgers in a game that will decide who goes to Indy. Wisconsin is going to stick to the script, grind it out with Jonathan Taylor. The Heisman hopeful running back has nearly 1,700 yards on the season with 18 TDs and an impressive 6.5 yard per carry average. He'll be up against a Gopher defense that has been tougher than it looks this season, giving up just 21 points and 300 yards per game on average. Wisconsin's defense looked incredible early in the season, but have struggled as of late, allowing a total of 129 points in their last 5 games compared to just 29 in their first six. The Badgers will have to deal with a Gopher offense that is loaded with talent. QB Tanner Morgan has two NFL-destined wideouts to throw to on the outside with Rashod Bateman and Tyler Johnson, who both have more than 1,000 yards and 10 TDs each. On the ground Minnesota is led by Rodney Smith, but Mohamed Ibraham and Shannon Brooks are great compliments. This just feels like a special Minnesota team and I think PJ Fleck really has them playing well. The Gophers won the Ax for the first time since 2003 last year, and I think they'll do it again. I hope it snows so it can be just authentically BIG 10. Gophers are headed to the BIG 10 Championship after beating Wisconsin 23-20.
#17 Iowa at Nebraska (The Heroes Game)
The Huskers will look to change the entire mood of 2019 with a win against the Hawkeyes on Black Friday in Lincoln. Nebraska's 2019 has not gone as advertised, with this team looking worse than the 2018 unit at times. However, they have a chance to get to a bowl game with a victory over Iowa, which would be a major step for Scott Frost and his program. It won't be easy though, Iowa has a veteran coach, veteran QB and the 13th best defense in the nation. Nebraska's offense has not been stellar by any means this season, but racked up over 500 yards against Wisconsin's top ten defense and put up 54 points on the Terps last week, the confidence is growing. Iowa loves to shut down the run though, forcing teams into passing situations. That's when A.J. Epenesa lets loose. The Junior defensive end has 7 sacks on the season and will look to keep Adrian Martinez uncomfortable. The Huskers will look to do the same with Nate Stanley, by bringing extra pressure from linebackers and safeties. They will have to watch wideout Ihmir Smith-Marsette, who is the primary deep threat for the Hawkeyes, but the offense is the weak point for Iowa. In order to win this game, Adrian Martinez will have to play the best he has all year. The run game is going to be tough to establish, so the downfield throws need to be accurate. The weather won't be favorable, but this is going to be a tight game. Nebraska is motivated and there's a lot on the line. Frost will need to coach his best game of the year as well, because the Hawkeyes don't make many mistakes. Nebraska has a big opportunity here, and I think they take it. Huskers win it and make me happy with a 20-17 victory. GO BIG RED!
Now for some quick hit predictions on other interesting games:
Washington State at Washington (The Apple Cup)- This game has lost it's luster a bit this year with both teams coming in at 6-5, but it's still a fun rivalry out in the Pacific Northwest. Wazzu has the nation's best passing attack with Anthony Gordon, and the Huskies defense is not what it once was. However, the Cougars often times struggle in this game, and I expect Jacob Eason to step up big for this one. Huskies win it 38-28.
Indiana at Purdue (Battle for the Old Oaken Bucket)- The Hoosiers and Boilermakers play for the oldest trophy in College Football as they square off in West Lafayette. It's always a tough place to win in November, and Purdue has kicked it up during the last half of the season. I like Indiana though, Peyton Ramsey has the air attack rolling and Purdue gives up around 235 yards per game through the air. Hoosiers 27, Boilermakers 21.
Oregon State at #14 Oregon (The Civil War)- The Ducks fell to the Sun Devils last week, almost certainly knocking them out of the Playoffs. Now they must come home to end their season in the annual in-state battle withe the Beavers, the Civil War. The Beavers are on the rise and are looking for a bowl game opportunity if they can get by the Ducks. This game could be tighter than expected, but Oregon still has enough talent to win this. Watch out for the Beavers next year though, this is a fairly young team. Ducks 37, Beavers 23.
#16 Notre Dame at Stanford- It has been a very forgettable year for David Shaw and the Cardinal, but upsetting Notre Dame would make it a bit sweeter. Unfortunately Ian Book will have a different game plan in mind, and I think he'll have a big night. Irish flex in this one 34-14.
North Carolina at NC State- The Heels can go Bowling in Mac Brown's first year back if they beat their in-state rival, and I think Sam Howell will get them there. The Freshman stud has nearly 3,000 yards passing with 32 TDs and just 6 picks. The Heels need work on defense next season, but they'll be dangerous with Howell under center. North Carolina wins 35-21.
Texas Tech at Texas- The Longhorns fell off this year and fell hard, especially after being "back". Regardless, Tom Herman's team can still build some momentum for Ehlinger's senior season with a victory against the Red Raiders and I think they'll do it. Too much offense from Texas and too many injuries for Tech. Hook 'Em for 40-24.
Thank you for reading all of my Rivalry Week Predictions and don't forget to listen to our new podcast episode on The 2nd String with a deeper dive for the predictions. GO BIG RED!
#CFBKnowItAll
Alex Fernando
Thursday, November 28, 2019
Wednesday, November 27, 2019
Week 13 Reflections
Week 13 was good to us Football fans. Even with a bit of a lackluster schedule down south, we had some great games this past weekend, and best yet, NEBRASKA WON A GAME! Yes, the Huskers beat Maryland this past weekend. Along with all your other CFB news and analysis, the breakdown of their game is below, enjoy!
The Huskers looked impressive this past weekend, notching their second ever road victory under Scott Frost with a 54-7 drubbing over the Terps. Yes, Maryland is not a very good team and the Huskers had a number of balls bounce their way, but this is still an important (confidence building) win for Scott Frost and his program. Just a couple of weeks ago this team was near the bottom of the abyss with numerous groans and grumbles coming from the fans at Memorial Stadium, but are now fighting their rival for a chance at a bowl game. My GOOD, EXPECTED and BAD categories are broken down below.
GOOD- Blackshirt Defense. Yes, this was a beaten up Maryland team that has not performed well this season, but this game was impressive for the defense. They held the Terps to just 206 total yards and only 57 of those were through the air. The Huskers racked up 7 tackles for loss, 6 sacks and 4 turnovers. This defense has been run over the past few weeks, so having a performance like this will really help heading into the Iowa game against a team that does not have a lot of offensive firepower. Great performance by the defense, let's see if they can repeat this Friday.
EXPECTED- Offensive Production. The Husker offense has been trending up in recent weeks, especially against Wisconsin. The Badgers rank in the top ten in total defense, but Nebraska was able to move the ball quite well. Against Maryland, Nebraska totaled 531 yards on offense, rushing for 305 of those. The blocking was good, the vision by the ball carriers was impressive, this was a very solid performance by the offense. Martinez still struggled a bit in the passing game and probably should have had another interception or two, but overall played well. This is the game he needed heading into face Iowa. They have one of the best defenses in the country, they're a tough rival, Martinez will need to play at his best to beat the Hawkeyes. Nebraska played a lot of younger guys in the Maryland game as well, 10 different receivers caught passes and four different player scored rushing TDs. I expected the offense to keep trending upward and they did not let me down.
BAD- The Husker return game. There's honestly not a lot of bad I could highlight in a 54-7 performance, but one issue that has plagued Nebraska for years is the kick and punt return game. This game didn't have many opportunities in kickoffs, but regardless, the Huskers rank poorly in both categories. Improvements have been made from 2018 (126th in Kickoff Return and 60th in Punt Return) as the Huskers rank 89th in Kickoff and 50th in Punt this year, but there's still no urgency with it. The Special Teams unit at Nebraska has been extremely underwhelming compared to the talent of players on these units in my opinion, and that is a coaching fault. This is an area that needs a serious look during the offseason.
Overall, there's not much to be upset with when Nebraska wins 54-7, but we should all keep in mind this team has a long road ahead. Beating Iowa can completely turn this season around with bowl eligibility and a rival win, but they're a tough team to beat. I'm not sold on how much of an improvement 5 wins is over 4 wins, but if the Huskers can beat Iowa, I'll be singing a different tune.
Now for some quick updates from around CFB:
- Other than Georgia and A&M, the SEC played their usual late November Cupcakes. The Bulldogs defense proved yet again why they are one of the best, beating the Aggies 19-13.
- Ohio State held off a third quarter push from the Nittany Lions to win 28-17, claiming the BIG 10 East Title. They await the winner of Wisconsin and Minnesota.
- Chase Young is the most dominant player in College Football, wrecking havoc upon the Penn State offense by recording 3 sacks, 4 TFL and 9 total tackles. He now owns the Buckeye record for sacks in a season and continues to terrify opposing offensive lines.
- The Horned Frogs kept it tight, but Oklahoma prevailed. Now just Bedlam and the Big XII Championship rematch with Baylor stand in their way of a possible playoff birth.
- Clay Helton may have saved his job at USC for another year by winning the battle for LA 52-35 against the Bruins of UCLA.
- Navy dominated in the second half against SMU, winning 35-28. The Midshipmen will be rooting for the Bearcats of Cincy in the coming week to beat Memphis and allow Navy to slip into the American Conference Championship.
- Virginia Tech blanked Pitt 28-0 to set up a winner-take-all game in the Commonwealth Cup with instate rival Virginia. The Hokies will be looking to claim the Coastal Division yet again while the Cavaliers are simply trying to beat VT for the first time since 2003.
- Hawai'i won the West Division in the Mountain West Conference and will play the ever-dangerous Boise State in the Conference Title game. Kudos to the Rainbow Warriors.
Thanks for reading all of my Week 13 Reflections and be ready for my Rivalry Week Predictions to follow up quick! Nate and I also have a new podcast episode for The 2nd String with all of our predictions, so be sure to listen to that as well. GO BIG RED!
#CFBKnowItAll
Alex Fernando
The Huskers looked impressive this past weekend, notching their second ever road victory under Scott Frost with a 54-7 drubbing over the Terps. Yes, Maryland is not a very good team and the Huskers had a number of balls bounce their way, but this is still an important (confidence building) win for Scott Frost and his program. Just a couple of weeks ago this team was near the bottom of the abyss with numerous groans and grumbles coming from the fans at Memorial Stadium, but are now fighting their rival for a chance at a bowl game. My GOOD, EXPECTED and BAD categories are broken down below.
GOOD- Blackshirt Defense. Yes, this was a beaten up Maryland team that has not performed well this season, but this game was impressive for the defense. They held the Terps to just 206 total yards and only 57 of those were through the air. The Huskers racked up 7 tackles for loss, 6 sacks and 4 turnovers. This defense has been run over the past few weeks, so having a performance like this will really help heading into the Iowa game against a team that does not have a lot of offensive firepower. Great performance by the defense, let's see if they can repeat this Friday.
EXPECTED- Offensive Production. The Husker offense has been trending up in recent weeks, especially against Wisconsin. The Badgers rank in the top ten in total defense, but Nebraska was able to move the ball quite well. Against Maryland, Nebraska totaled 531 yards on offense, rushing for 305 of those. The blocking was good, the vision by the ball carriers was impressive, this was a very solid performance by the offense. Martinez still struggled a bit in the passing game and probably should have had another interception or two, but overall played well. This is the game he needed heading into face Iowa. They have one of the best defenses in the country, they're a tough rival, Martinez will need to play at his best to beat the Hawkeyes. Nebraska played a lot of younger guys in the Maryland game as well, 10 different receivers caught passes and four different player scored rushing TDs. I expected the offense to keep trending upward and they did not let me down.
BAD- The Husker return game. There's honestly not a lot of bad I could highlight in a 54-7 performance, but one issue that has plagued Nebraska for years is the kick and punt return game. This game didn't have many opportunities in kickoffs, but regardless, the Huskers rank poorly in both categories. Improvements have been made from 2018 (126th in Kickoff Return and 60th in Punt Return) as the Huskers rank 89th in Kickoff and 50th in Punt this year, but there's still no urgency with it. The Special Teams unit at Nebraska has been extremely underwhelming compared to the talent of players on these units in my opinion, and that is a coaching fault. This is an area that needs a serious look during the offseason.
Overall, there's not much to be upset with when Nebraska wins 54-7, but we should all keep in mind this team has a long road ahead. Beating Iowa can completely turn this season around with bowl eligibility and a rival win, but they're a tough team to beat. I'm not sold on how much of an improvement 5 wins is over 4 wins, but if the Huskers can beat Iowa, I'll be singing a different tune.
Now for some quick updates from around CFB:
- Other than Georgia and A&M, the SEC played their usual late November Cupcakes. The Bulldogs defense proved yet again why they are one of the best, beating the Aggies 19-13.
- Ohio State held off a third quarter push from the Nittany Lions to win 28-17, claiming the BIG 10 East Title. They await the winner of Wisconsin and Minnesota.
- Chase Young is the most dominant player in College Football, wrecking havoc upon the Penn State offense by recording 3 sacks, 4 TFL and 9 total tackles. He now owns the Buckeye record for sacks in a season and continues to terrify opposing offensive lines.
- The Horned Frogs kept it tight, but Oklahoma prevailed. Now just Bedlam and the Big XII Championship rematch with Baylor stand in their way of a possible playoff birth.
- Clay Helton may have saved his job at USC for another year by winning the battle for LA 52-35 against the Bruins of UCLA.
- Navy dominated in the second half against SMU, winning 35-28. The Midshipmen will be rooting for the Bearcats of Cincy in the coming week to beat Memphis and allow Navy to slip into the American Conference Championship.
- Virginia Tech blanked Pitt 28-0 to set up a winner-take-all game in the Commonwealth Cup with instate rival Virginia. The Hokies will be looking to claim the Coastal Division yet again while the Cavaliers are simply trying to beat VT for the first time since 2003.
- Hawai'i won the West Division in the Mountain West Conference and will play the ever-dangerous Boise State in the Conference Title game. Kudos to the Rainbow Warriors.
Thanks for reading all of my Week 13 Reflections and be ready for my Rivalry Week Predictions to follow up quick! Nate and I also have a new podcast episode for The 2nd String with all of our predictions, so be sure to listen to that as well. GO BIG RED!
#CFBKnowItAll
Alex Fernando
Friday, November 22, 2019
Week 13 Predictions
Welcome to Week 13 football fans! It's late November and there's nothing else to do on Saturdays except eat good food and watch football. There's a great slate of games this weekend and some big playoff implications waiting to happen. This post has all of my predictions, enjoy!
Week 12 Prediction Results: 11-1
Overall Prediction Results: 97-49
Texas A&M at #4 Georgia
The Bulldogs have clinched the SEC East division for the third year in a row, but now have to finish off their schedule without any slips up in order to stay in the hunt for the CFB Playoffs. Their first test is a home stand against the ever dangerous Aggies of A&M. Kellen Mond and the Aggie offense are averaging 34 points per game and over 430 yards. Mond is always a headache for opposing defense with his dual threat ability, and establishing a ground attack will be important in the forecast of rainy weather. Both teams are tough against the run on defense, but the Bulldogs give up just an average of 75 yards on the ground to opponents, ranking 3rd in the nation. This one could be closer than the experts think, but I like Georgia to finish strong. Bulldogs win 26-17.
Illinois at #17 Iowa
The Fightin' Illini are bowl eligible for the first time since 2014. They're looking for their fifth straight win, but have to survive Kinnick Stadium in November to make it happen. The Illini are statistically out matched on the defensive front against Iowa, which is where I expect most of the issues to arise from. Iowa DE A.J. Epenesa is one of the best pass rushers in the nation, and will look to add to his 7 sack total against the Illini. I expect Iowa to hold the Illinois offense from moving the ball too much, but watch out for Senior RB Reggie Corbin. The Illini can be very deadly once he gets rolling, averaging 5.2 yards per carry this season. On the other side, Iowa will need to get wideout Ihmir Smith-Marsette going quickly to take advantage of a vulnerable Illinois secondary. The Hawkeyes have struggled on offense this season, so this could be a good chance to fire it up for the end of the year. Iowa wins at home 30-14.
Pittsburgh at Virginia Tech
An important game in deciding who will lose to Clemson in the ACC championship takes place in Blacksburg, VA this week as the Panthers take on the Hokies. Both teams are still in the hunt for the Coastal Division title, but trail behind Virginia. The Panthers lost to UVA to start the season, so they would need a victory and then help next week from the Hokies in the Commonwealth Cup. The Hokies just need to win the next two weeks and they're in. Again, the Coastal race is simply to see who will lose to Clemson this year, but nonetheless. Pitt really struggles on offense, and the Hokies have won 4 of their last 5, nearly knocking off Notre Dame on the road as well. Their defense has improved tremendously over recent weeks, and they'll look to bring their pass rush (VT ranks 12th in sacks with 33 this season) into the face of Pitt QB Kenny Picket. The Panthers are quite good on the defensive side of the ball too, ranking 1st in sacks with 45 and the 10th best defense in the nation. Both teams have been playing really well lately, which makes this tough to predict. The Hokies are always tough to beat at home though, and their new QB, Hendon Hooker has thrown for nearly 1,000 yards and 8 TDs in his 5 starts. Virginia Tech 23, Pitt 21.
#25 SMU at Navy
Both the Mustangs and Midshipmen have a shot at winning the American West Division, but they would both need a win here and a loss from Memphis to either South Florida or Cincy next week. This is a very realistic scenario, especially with how dominant Cincy has been in the conference, but first thing is first, you have to win the game you play. SMU has been somewhat forgotten after their shootout loss to the Tigers a couple of weeks ago, but the Mustangs still average 45 points and well over 500 yards on offense per game. The Midshipmen aren't far behind with 38 points and nearly 450 yards, but they're all about the ground attack. The triple-option attack has them at 7-2 this season. Unfortunately for them, their most recent loss came from a 5 TD air raid from Ian Book and Notre Dame, and SMU loves to air it out. The Mustangs are looking to get back into the New Year's Six hunt, and if they get out to a hot start, it will be tough for Navy to keep pace. The Midshipmen will look to slow the game down and control the clock, but I like SMU in this one. Very important game in the American Conference, and should be a good one. SMU 37, Navy 28.
#13 Michigan at Indiana
The Wolverines have one last hurdle to get past before their annual rivalry game against the Buckeyes next week. This is not a hurdle to overlook though. Indiana is not the easy BIG 10 win they've been in previous seasons. The Hoosiers have a deadly passing attack led by QB Peyton Ramsey and WR Whop Philyor. Ramsey has thrown for nearly 1,700 yards with 10 TDs and just 3 picks after stepping in for the injured Michael Penix Jr. Michigan's defense is no slouch though, ranking 4th against the pass and 5th overall. The Wolverines have been on a tear their last few games, giving up no more than 14 points in their last three contests and scoring an average of 42.3 points. The offense has come alive behind a rejuvenated rushing attack and better performance from QB Shea Patterson. Even with Ohio State looming in the distance, I think Michigan will take care of business in this one. Indiana will perform well, but they still have work to do before an upset like this happens. Wolverines 34, Hoosiers 21.
Texas at #14 Baylor
Both Baylor and OU can punch their Big XII Championship tickets with wins this weekend, and the Bears have to deal with the Longhorns to make it happen. Their second half collapse against the Sooners last week gives Texas something to shoot for, but the boys in burnt orange have struggled this season, even with so much talent on offense. They've failed to break 30 points in 4 of their last 5 contests and have had multiple games come down to a last second field goal. The Bear's came out on fire against Oklahoma, but struggled to get their offense moving in the second half. Charlie Brewer will be looking deep for Denzel Mims against Texas, as they give up over 300 yards per game through the air on defense. However, a steady ground attack will be needed to balance out the game. On defense, Baylor will have to deal with Sam Ehlinger and the Texas weapons. This one could turn into more of a shootout than most people expect. Baylor wins a big one at home 41-35.
#8 Penn State at #2 Ohio State
The Buckeyes are looking to wrap up the BIG 10 East division as they host the Nittany Lions for Senior day. The Nittany Lions are looking for the upset, and to jump back into the playoff conversations. Sean Clifford is a handful for any defense, especially when he throws to KJ Hamler. Hamler torched the Buckeyes for 138 yards and a TD on just 4 catches last year, and is always a touchdown waiting to happen when the ball is in his hands. This is a new and improved defense for Ohio State however, and they've dominated everyone in their path, giving up just 9.8 points and 216 total yards per game. Penn State will struggle to move the ball in this game. On the other side, the Buckeyes have many players who are always a danger to break it loose, but none more deadly than QB Justin Fields. No one is even paying attention to this kid in the Heisman race, but he's accounted for more than 2,500 total yards (2,164 pass + 377 rush) with 41 total touchdowns. Fields has been unstoppable with the Buckeyes offense this season, and as I stated early on in the season, this team will steamroll anyone in their path right now. Ohio State wins another game in very impressive fashion by beating the Nittany Lions 35-10.
Nebraska at Maryland
I can see this game going two ways for the Huskers. The scenarios are broken down below:
1. Nebraska establishes the rushing attack (and sticks with it) like they did against Wisconsin and forces Maryland into the box while priming JD Spielman for a deep post or streak around the mid-2nd quarter to take momentum into half time. Then come out slow in the second half, needing to fight back for a fourth quarter victory capped off by Adrian Martinez rushing touchdown on a third and goal after two previous failed attempts.
2. Nebraska reverts back to a performance similar to the Ohio State and Minnesota games where Maryland is able to dominate in all facets (including at least one if not two special teams touch downs). The Blackshirts defense is moved up and down the field, helping the Terps look like we're back in weeks one and two. The offense sputters to just around 220 total yards with at least three turnovers and the Huskers fall by a disgusting 14 points or more.
This game is honestly a toss up in my mind. It depends heavily on which Husker team shows up and if they can limit the mistakes. I think this team has more than enough talent on hand to beat Maryland, and I'm taking the Huskers 30-27. Please don't let me sit through the second scenario.
Now for some quick hit predictions of other games around CFB:
UCLA at #23 USC- In the battle for LA the surging Trojans face off against a pesky UCLA team. The Bruins need to win out to become bowl eligible, but with Clay Helton possibly fighting for his job, I think the Trojans will come out hot. Kedon Slovis has played very well this season and he should have a big night against the 123rd ranked UCLA pass defense. USC 38, UCLA 21.
Cal at Stanford (Battle for the Ax)- Neither of these teams have been very productive this season, and both were plagued by injuries from the get-go. This is not an easy one to pick, but I'm going to go with an old rule of mine: It's tough to win at the Farm. Stanford 26, Cal 24.
Temple at #19 Cincinnati- The Bearcats are closing in on the G5 New Year's Six bid, but have a couple of difficult games to finish off their season with. The first of those games is a visit from the Temple Owls, which always post an impressive defense. They've been burned a few times though, and after a close call last week, Cincy will open the throttle on offense. Bearcats win 41-21.
#21 Oklahoma State at West Virginia- An easy trap game awaits the Cowboys as they head into Morgantown, but luckily, they have Chuba Hubbard. The Canadian native should probably be a bigger part of the Heisman conversation with his 1,726 rushing yards and 20 TDs, but nonetheless, he should help the Pokes take care of business. OSU 30, WVU 21.
Tennessee at Missouri- Not an important game by any means, but a battle for bowl eligibility between two 5-5 teams is always fun. The Vols have bounced back from their slow start, winning 4 of their last 5 games, while the Tigers have lost 4 straight. Kelly Bryant is always dangerous, but Jarrett Guarantano has been playing well and freshman backup Brian Maurer doesn't miss much of a step. Tennessee becomes bowl eligible with a 34-28 victory.
San Diego State at Hawai'i- The winner of this game clinches a spot in the Mountain West Championship game, and the Rainbow Warriors are ready to take it. They'll have to get by the number one rush defense in the nation. Luckily they rank 4th in the passing attack. Give me Hawai'i in a tough 30-28 victory!
Thank you all for reading my Week 13 predictions, and don't forget to listen to the latest episode of The 2nd String, my CFB podcast with Nate Muhlbach. We'll have another breakdown next week after we see how this weekend shakes out. Enjoy the games and GO BIG RED!
#CFBKnowItAll
Alex Fernando
Week 12 Prediction Results: 11-1
Overall Prediction Results: 97-49
Texas A&M at #4 Georgia
The Bulldogs have clinched the SEC East division for the third year in a row, but now have to finish off their schedule without any slips up in order to stay in the hunt for the CFB Playoffs. Their first test is a home stand against the ever dangerous Aggies of A&M. Kellen Mond and the Aggie offense are averaging 34 points per game and over 430 yards. Mond is always a headache for opposing defense with his dual threat ability, and establishing a ground attack will be important in the forecast of rainy weather. Both teams are tough against the run on defense, but the Bulldogs give up just an average of 75 yards on the ground to opponents, ranking 3rd in the nation. This one could be closer than the experts think, but I like Georgia to finish strong. Bulldogs win 26-17.
Illinois at #17 Iowa
The Fightin' Illini are bowl eligible for the first time since 2014. They're looking for their fifth straight win, but have to survive Kinnick Stadium in November to make it happen. The Illini are statistically out matched on the defensive front against Iowa, which is where I expect most of the issues to arise from. Iowa DE A.J. Epenesa is one of the best pass rushers in the nation, and will look to add to his 7 sack total against the Illini. I expect Iowa to hold the Illinois offense from moving the ball too much, but watch out for Senior RB Reggie Corbin. The Illini can be very deadly once he gets rolling, averaging 5.2 yards per carry this season. On the other side, Iowa will need to get wideout Ihmir Smith-Marsette going quickly to take advantage of a vulnerable Illinois secondary. The Hawkeyes have struggled on offense this season, so this could be a good chance to fire it up for the end of the year. Iowa wins at home 30-14.
Pittsburgh at Virginia Tech
An important game in deciding who will lose to Clemson in the ACC championship takes place in Blacksburg, VA this week as the Panthers take on the Hokies. Both teams are still in the hunt for the Coastal Division title, but trail behind Virginia. The Panthers lost to UVA to start the season, so they would need a victory and then help next week from the Hokies in the Commonwealth Cup. The Hokies just need to win the next two weeks and they're in. Again, the Coastal race is simply to see who will lose to Clemson this year, but nonetheless. Pitt really struggles on offense, and the Hokies have won 4 of their last 5, nearly knocking off Notre Dame on the road as well. Their defense has improved tremendously over recent weeks, and they'll look to bring their pass rush (VT ranks 12th in sacks with 33 this season) into the face of Pitt QB Kenny Picket. The Panthers are quite good on the defensive side of the ball too, ranking 1st in sacks with 45 and the 10th best defense in the nation. Both teams have been playing really well lately, which makes this tough to predict. The Hokies are always tough to beat at home though, and their new QB, Hendon Hooker has thrown for nearly 1,000 yards and 8 TDs in his 5 starts. Virginia Tech 23, Pitt 21.
#25 SMU at Navy
Both the Mustangs and Midshipmen have a shot at winning the American West Division, but they would both need a win here and a loss from Memphis to either South Florida or Cincy next week. This is a very realistic scenario, especially with how dominant Cincy has been in the conference, but first thing is first, you have to win the game you play. SMU has been somewhat forgotten after their shootout loss to the Tigers a couple of weeks ago, but the Mustangs still average 45 points and well over 500 yards on offense per game. The Midshipmen aren't far behind with 38 points and nearly 450 yards, but they're all about the ground attack. The triple-option attack has them at 7-2 this season. Unfortunately for them, their most recent loss came from a 5 TD air raid from Ian Book and Notre Dame, and SMU loves to air it out. The Mustangs are looking to get back into the New Year's Six hunt, and if they get out to a hot start, it will be tough for Navy to keep pace. The Midshipmen will look to slow the game down and control the clock, but I like SMU in this one. Very important game in the American Conference, and should be a good one. SMU 37, Navy 28.
#13 Michigan at Indiana
The Wolverines have one last hurdle to get past before their annual rivalry game against the Buckeyes next week. This is not a hurdle to overlook though. Indiana is not the easy BIG 10 win they've been in previous seasons. The Hoosiers have a deadly passing attack led by QB Peyton Ramsey and WR Whop Philyor. Ramsey has thrown for nearly 1,700 yards with 10 TDs and just 3 picks after stepping in for the injured Michael Penix Jr. Michigan's defense is no slouch though, ranking 4th against the pass and 5th overall. The Wolverines have been on a tear their last few games, giving up no more than 14 points in their last three contests and scoring an average of 42.3 points. The offense has come alive behind a rejuvenated rushing attack and better performance from QB Shea Patterson. Even with Ohio State looming in the distance, I think Michigan will take care of business in this one. Indiana will perform well, but they still have work to do before an upset like this happens. Wolverines 34, Hoosiers 21.
Texas at #14 Baylor
Both Baylor and OU can punch their Big XII Championship tickets with wins this weekend, and the Bears have to deal with the Longhorns to make it happen. Their second half collapse against the Sooners last week gives Texas something to shoot for, but the boys in burnt orange have struggled this season, even with so much talent on offense. They've failed to break 30 points in 4 of their last 5 contests and have had multiple games come down to a last second field goal. The Bear's came out on fire against Oklahoma, but struggled to get their offense moving in the second half. Charlie Brewer will be looking deep for Denzel Mims against Texas, as they give up over 300 yards per game through the air on defense. However, a steady ground attack will be needed to balance out the game. On defense, Baylor will have to deal with Sam Ehlinger and the Texas weapons. This one could turn into more of a shootout than most people expect. Baylor wins a big one at home 41-35.
#8 Penn State at #2 Ohio State
The Buckeyes are looking to wrap up the BIG 10 East division as they host the Nittany Lions for Senior day. The Nittany Lions are looking for the upset, and to jump back into the playoff conversations. Sean Clifford is a handful for any defense, especially when he throws to KJ Hamler. Hamler torched the Buckeyes for 138 yards and a TD on just 4 catches last year, and is always a touchdown waiting to happen when the ball is in his hands. This is a new and improved defense for Ohio State however, and they've dominated everyone in their path, giving up just 9.8 points and 216 total yards per game. Penn State will struggle to move the ball in this game. On the other side, the Buckeyes have many players who are always a danger to break it loose, but none more deadly than QB Justin Fields. No one is even paying attention to this kid in the Heisman race, but he's accounted for more than 2,500 total yards (2,164 pass + 377 rush) with 41 total touchdowns. Fields has been unstoppable with the Buckeyes offense this season, and as I stated early on in the season, this team will steamroll anyone in their path right now. Ohio State wins another game in very impressive fashion by beating the Nittany Lions 35-10.
Nebraska at Maryland
I can see this game going two ways for the Huskers. The scenarios are broken down below:
1. Nebraska establishes the rushing attack (and sticks with it) like they did against Wisconsin and forces Maryland into the box while priming JD Spielman for a deep post or streak around the mid-2nd quarter to take momentum into half time. Then come out slow in the second half, needing to fight back for a fourth quarter victory capped off by Adrian Martinez rushing touchdown on a third and goal after two previous failed attempts.
2. Nebraska reverts back to a performance similar to the Ohio State and Minnesota games where Maryland is able to dominate in all facets (including at least one if not two special teams touch downs). The Blackshirts defense is moved up and down the field, helping the Terps look like we're back in weeks one and two. The offense sputters to just around 220 total yards with at least three turnovers and the Huskers fall by a disgusting 14 points or more.
This game is honestly a toss up in my mind. It depends heavily on which Husker team shows up and if they can limit the mistakes. I think this team has more than enough talent on hand to beat Maryland, and I'm taking the Huskers 30-27. Please don't let me sit through the second scenario.
Now for some quick hit predictions of other games around CFB:
UCLA at #23 USC- In the battle for LA the surging Trojans face off against a pesky UCLA team. The Bruins need to win out to become bowl eligible, but with Clay Helton possibly fighting for his job, I think the Trojans will come out hot. Kedon Slovis has played very well this season and he should have a big night against the 123rd ranked UCLA pass defense. USC 38, UCLA 21.
Cal at Stanford (Battle for the Ax)- Neither of these teams have been very productive this season, and both were plagued by injuries from the get-go. This is not an easy one to pick, but I'm going to go with an old rule of mine: It's tough to win at the Farm. Stanford 26, Cal 24.
Temple at #19 Cincinnati- The Bearcats are closing in on the G5 New Year's Six bid, but have a couple of difficult games to finish off their season with. The first of those games is a visit from the Temple Owls, which always post an impressive defense. They've been burned a few times though, and after a close call last week, Cincy will open the throttle on offense. Bearcats win 41-21.
#21 Oklahoma State at West Virginia- An easy trap game awaits the Cowboys as they head into Morgantown, but luckily, they have Chuba Hubbard. The Canadian native should probably be a bigger part of the Heisman conversation with his 1,726 rushing yards and 20 TDs, but nonetheless, he should help the Pokes take care of business. OSU 30, WVU 21.
Tennessee at Missouri- Not an important game by any means, but a battle for bowl eligibility between two 5-5 teams is always fun. The Vols have bounced back from their slow start, winning 4 of their last 5 games, while the Tigers have lost 4 straight. Kelly Bryant is always dangerous, but Jarrett Guarantano has been playing well and freshman backup Brian Maurer doesn't miss much of a step. Tennessee becomes bowl eligible with a 34-28 victory.
San Diego State at Hawai'i- The winner of this game clinches a spot in the Mountain West Championship game, and the Rainbow Warriors are ready to take it. They'll have to get by the number one rush defense in the nation. Luckily they rank 4th in the passing attack. Give me Hawai'i in a tough 30-28 victory!
Thank you all for reading my Week 13 predictions, and don't forget to listen to the latest episode of The 2nd String, my CFB podcast with Nate Muhlbach. We'll have another breakdown next week after we see how this weekend shakes out. Enjoy the games and GO BIG RED!
#CFBKnowItAll
Alex Fernando
Wednesday, November 20, 2019
Week 12 Reflections
It's mid-week football fans, and I've collected all my thoughts about the previous weekend in college football as well as the Huskers' loss to Wisconsin. Nate and I also recorded a new podcast episode laying out the path to the playoffs for the remaining teams. Click on the link at the bottom to listen to our latest episode and read on to see my thoughts on CFB Week 12.
It's honestly disgusting that I have to say this loss wasn't nearly as bad as I thought it would be, but that's where we're at this season with the Huskers. Nebraska did play quite well against the Badgers, but were unable to execute well on offense once crossing the Badger 30 yard line. On the defensive side, Wisconsin broke tackles left and right as they rumbled to 320 yards on the ground, with 204 and 2 TDs coming from Jonathan Taylor (I predicted 215 and 2 TDs). I've broken down my main thoughts of GOOD, EXPECTED and BAD in the categories below.
GOOD- The Husker Offense. Nebraska racked up 493 yards and 23 first downs against the Badgers' top 5 defense. The Huskers moved the ball well, throwing for 220 and rushing for 273 with a very balanced attack. Running Back Dedrick Mills and the offensive line easily had their best performance of the year as numerous holes were opened up and Mills averaged 11.1 yards per carry with 188 and 1 TD on the ground. Unfortunately he was only given the rock 4 times in the second half, but the play calling overall was much better than previous weeks. Even without Wandale Robinson, Nebraska showed some impressive flashes on offense against a defense that many teams have been demolished by. Hopefully this production sticks around and can turn into points in the future.
EXPECTED- Jonathan Taylor dominance. As mentioned previously, I was not far off with my 215 yard and 2 TD performance for the Badgers running back, not far off at all. The Junior Heisman hopeful averaged 8.2 yards per carry as he rumbled through the Blackshirt defense quite easily for the third year in a row. In his 3 games against the Huskers, Taylor now has 674 yards rushing with 7 TDs and a 9.1 yard per carry average. You can never be disappointed watching a performance like Taylor gives, it was quite impressive watching him DRAG multiple Husker defenders an extra 7 yards once he was hit. Everyone knew Jonathan Taylor would get his, which is why Nebraska really needed to take advantage of their opportunities when they got into the Redzone against the Badgers. As expected, just another day at the office for Jonathan Taylor.
BAD- Tackling. I don't know how many times I've mentioned how bad the tackling is with the Blackshirt defense, but I promise you it's far from the number of missed tackles against Wisconsin. Husker defenders are rarely in the right position to begin with, but when they are, you can count on them missing the ball carrier nine times out of ten. The secondary and linebackers are by far the worst offenders, and usually struggle to remember they have arms to use rather than just trying to shoulder bump people. Tackling is one of the core fundamentals of football, and this issue needs to be addressed IMMEDIATELY. Break down, wrap up and bring the man to the ground. You're not going to make every tackle, especially against someone like Jonathan Taylor, but at least make it look respectable. Senior Captain Linebacker Mo Barry is constantly getting trucked over and he's supposed to be the best one out there! I can tolerate a lot of things as a Husker fan, and a football fan. However, when a team can't accomplish one of the basic fundamentals of football, I get annoyed quickly. This is the BIG 10 Conference, tackling is a must.
Again, I do believe Nebraska played fairly well against the Badgers, as I thought the game would be much worse. However, time and time again this team proves how much growth is still to come as they continue to shoot themselves in the foot, giving their opponents easy opportunities to seize momentum and take over a game. The Huskers need to win out to go bowling, and this team better not overlook Maryland. They've only won one game on the road under Coach Frost, and that one was by a very slim margin. Let's hope for the best Husker fans!
Now for some quick hit news and thoughts from elsewhere around College Football:
- Alabama ROLLED over Mississippi State, but unfortunately lost their star QB Tua Tagovailoa for the season with a terrible hip injury. This hurts all of college football as Tua is one of the most dynamic players to watch, let's hope for a speedy and full recovery!
- Joe Burrow continues to re-write the LSU record books, now owning the most consecutive completions as a Tiger with 16 in a row. The Heisman front runner now has 3,687 yards on the season with 38 TDs and just 6 picks. If only he would've followed his father's footsteps and been a Husker....
- Clemson's defense held Wake Forest to 3 points. This doesn't sound like much of an accomplishment, but the Demon Deacons' offense was 13th best in the nation heading into that game. Don't sleep on the Tigers!
- Georgia held off a late comeback charge by a dangerous Auburn team and have clinched their spot in the SEC Championship for the third straight year.
- No one has noticed, but Oregon and Utah are looking really good. The PAC-12 Title game will be a fun one to watch.
- Indiana held their own against a tough Penn State team in Happy Valley, do you know what that means? It means Ohio State is going to CRUSH the Nittany Lions like everyone else on their schedule. But kudos to Indiana, they'll be a tough bowl opponent.
- Staying in the BIG 10, Northwestern put up 45 points! Yes, it was against the worst defense in the nation (seriously, UMass is rated 130th in total defense), but the Wildcats are looking for small victories right now.
- A big victory in the BIG 10 came for the Hawkeyes as they knocked off the previous unbeaten Gophers. Minnesota had their chances, but Kinnick Stadium proves to be difficult yet again. I don't think you've seen the last of the Gophers though.
- Michigan put up 44 on their "little brother", but are the Wolverines ready for the Buckeyes in a couple weeks? Hint: No, no they are not.
- Oklahoma completed the largest comeback in school history after being down 28-3 against Baylor early in the second quarter. They'll likely face the Bears again in the Big XII Championship, and you never want to play a team twice.
- Texas lost to the Cyclones after giving them a free first down from an offsides on a missed ISU field goal. Always a good day when that happens!
- Last comment about the Big XII: watch out for the Pokes in that BEDLAM game. OSU is a sneaky 3 loss team and has the nation's leading rusher.
- Everyone keeps talking about Joe Burrow and Jalen Hurts battling it out for the Heisman, but keep your eye on Justin Fields. The Sophomore stud for the Buckeyes does not get nearly enough love and he's accounted for 41 TDs so far this season.
Thank you for reading my week 12 reflections and be sure to listen to the latest episode of The 2nd String, my Husker and College Football Podcast with my roommate and friend Nate Muhlbach. Week 13 Predictions will be posted soon, GO BIG RED!
#CFBKnowItAll
Alex Fernando
It's honestly disgusting that I have to say this loss wasn't nearly as bad as I thought it would be, but that's where we're at this season with the Huskers. Nebraska did play quite well against the Badgers, but were unable to execute well on offense once crossing the Badger 30 yard line. On the defensive side, Wisconsin broke tackles left and right as they rumbled to 320 yards on the ground, with 204 and 2 TDs coming from Jonathan Taylor (I predicted 215 and 2 TDs). I've broken down my main thoughts of GOOD, EXPECTED and BAD in the categories below.
GOOD- The Husker Offense. Nebraska racked up 493 yards and 23 first downs against the Badgers' top 5 defense. The Huskers moved the ball well, throwing for 220 and rushing for 273 with a very balanced attack. Running Back Dedrick Mills and the offensive line easily had their best performance of the year as numerous holes were opened up and Mills averaged 11.1 yards per carry with 188 and 1 TD on the ground. Unfortunately he was only given the rock 4 times in the second half, but the play calling overall was much better than previous weeks. Even without Wandale Robinson, Nebraska showed some impressive flashes on offense against a defense that many teams have been demolished by. Hopefully this production sticks around and can turn into points in the future.
EXPECTED- Jonathan Taylor dominance. As mentioned previously, I was not far off with my 215 yard and 2 TD performance for the Badgers running back, not far off at all. The Junior Heisman hopeful averaged 8.2 yards per carry as he rumbled through the Blackshirt defense quite easily for the third year in a row. In his 3 games against the Huskers, Taylor now has 674 yards rushing with 7 TDs and a 9.1 yard per carry average. You can never be disappointed watching a performance like Taylor gives, it was quite impressive watching him DRAG multiple Husker defenders an extra 7 yards once he was hit. Everyone knew Jonathan Taylor would get his, which is why Nebraska really needed to take advantage of their opportunities when they got into the Redzone against the Badgers. As expected, just another day at the office for Jonathan Taylor.
BAD- Tackling. I don't know how many times I've mentioned how bad the tackling is with the Blackshirt defense, but I promise you it's far from the number of missed tackles against Wisconsin. Husker defenders are rarely in the right position to begin with, but when they are, you can count on them missing the ball carrier nine times out of ten. The secondary and linebackers are by far the worst offenders, and usually struggle to remember they have arms to use rather than just trying to shoulder bump people. Tackling is one of the core fundamentals of football, and this issue needs to be addressed IMMEDIATELY. Break down, wrap up and bring the man to the ground. You're not going to make every tackle, especially against someone like Jonathan Taylor, but at least make it look respectable. Senior Captain Linebacker Mo Barry is constantly getting trucked over and he's supposed to be the best one out there! I can tolerate a lot of things as a Husker fan, and a football fan. However, when a team can't accomplish one of the basic fundamentals of football, I get annoyed quickly. This is the BIG 10 Conference, tackling is a must.
Again, I do believe Nebraska played fairly well against the Badgers, as I thought the game would be much worse. However, time and time again this team proves how much growth is still to come as they continue to shoot themselves in the foot, giving their opponents easy opportunities to seize momentum and take over a game. The Huskers need to win out to go bowling, and this team better not overlook Maryland. They've only won one game on the road under Coach Frost, and that one was by a very slim margin. Let's hope for the best Husker fans!
Now for some quick hit news and thoughts from elsewhere around College Football:
- Alabama ROLLED over Mississippi State, but unfortunately lost their star QB Tua Tagovailoa for the season with a terrible hip injury. This hurts all of college football as Tua is one of the most dynamic players to watch, let's hope for a speedy and full recovery!
- Joe Burrow continues to re-write the LSU record books, now owning the most consecutive completions as a Tiger with 16 in a row. The Heisman front runner now has 3,687 yards on the season with 38 TDs and just 6 picks. If only he would've followed his father's footsteps and been a Husker....
- Clemson's defense held Wake Forest to 3 points. This doesn't sound like much of an accomplishment, but the Demon Deacons' offense was 13th best in the nation heading into that game. Don't sleep on the Tigers!
- Georgia held off a late comeback charge by a dangerous Auburn team and have clinched their spot in the SEC Championship for the third straight year.
- No one has noticed, but Oregon and Utah are looking really good. The PAC-12 Title game will be a fun one to watch.
- Indiana held their own against a tough Penn State team in Happy Valley, do you know what that means? It means Ohio State is going to CRUSH the Nittany Lions like everyone else on their schedule. But kudos to Indiana, they'll be a tough bowl opponent.
- Staying in the BIG 10, Northwestern put up 45 points! Yes, it was against the worst defense in the nation (seriously, UMass is rated 130th in total defense), but the Wildcats are looking for small victories right now.
- A big victory in the BIG 10 came for the Hawkeyes as they knocked off the previous unbeaten Gophers. Minnesota had their chances, but Kinnick Stadium proves to be difficult yet again. I don't think you've seen the last of the Gophers though.
- Michigan put up 44 on their "little brother", but are the Wolverines ready for the Buckeyes in a couple weeks? Hint: No, no they are not.
- Oklahoma completed the largest comeback in school history after being down 28-3 against Baylor early in the second quarter. They'll likely face the Bears again in the Big XII Championship, and you never want to play a team twice.
- Texas lost to the Cyclones after giving them a free first down from an offsides on a missed ISU field goal. Always a good day when that happens!
- Last comment about the Big XII: watch out for the Pokes in that BEDLAM game. OSU is a sneaky 3 loss team and has the nation's leading rusher.
- Everyone keeps talking about Joe Burrow and Jalen Hurts battling it out for the Heisman, but keep your eye on Justin Fields. The Sophomore stud for the Buckeyes does not get nearly enough love and he's accounted for 41 TDs so far this season.
Thank you for reading my week 12 reflections and be sure to listen to the latest episode of The 2nd String, my Husker and College Football Podcast with my roommate and friend Nate Muhlbach. Week 13 Predictions will be posted soon, GO BIG RED!
#CFBKnowItAll
Alex Fernando
Saturday, November 16, 2019
Week 12 Predictions
Week 12 in College Football is upon us and we've got more and more playoff implications every week! There's a great set of games this weekend, including a number of ranked match ups and ranked teams on the road. Crazy football always happens in November, so we'll see if any chaos strikes this weekend. This post has all my predictions for the big games to watch this week and a couple that could be more interesting than the experts think, enjoy!
Week 11 Prediction Results: 6-4
Overall Prediction Results: 86-48
Indiana at #9 Penn State
The Nittany Lions fell short against the Gophers last week and now face a tough Indiana team at home. The Hoosiers have played well this season, but haven't faced much in terms of competition overall. They average 34 points per game and are led by Sophomore RB Stevie Scott III (737 yards and 9 TDs) and Junior WR Whop Philyor (813 yards and 3 TDs). They'll be going against one of the toughest defenses in the country though, as Penn State gives up just 300 yards and 12 points per game on average. I'm guessing their offense will bounce back against a mediocre Hoosier defense, and KJ Hamler should have a big day. I've got Penn State winning 33-20 in this one, ending the Hoosier's streak of 4 straight wins. I wouldn't be upset seeing another upset though!
Michigan State at #15 Michigan
Big brother and little brother meet again as the 4-5 Spartans travel to Ann Arbor to take on the "reborn" 7-2 Wolverines. Michigan's offense has come alive the last couple of weeks, putting up 45 and 38 points on Notre Dame and Maryland respectively. They're coming off of a BYE week, and they'll look to get RB Zach Charbonet rolling again quick. The freshman has had 4 TDs over the past two games and averages 5 yards per carry. Michigan State has struggled in recent weeks, losing 4 straight. The first three were blowouts to Wisconsin, Ohio State and Penn State, but a close loss to Illinois last week has many Spartan fans concerned. The offense has been stagnant, averaging just 23 points per game. They'll be going against Michigan's 7th ranked defense, so I don't expect much in this one. Rivalry games are always fun, and Harbaugh does not do well in them, but I'll ride with the Wolverines in this game. Michigan 28, Michigan State 13.
#23 Navy at #16 Notre Dame
The Midshipmen travel to South Bend to take on Notre Dame in a classic rivalry game. Statistically, these teams match up quite well. Navy averages 40 points per game and gives up just 18 while the Irish average 34 and give up 19. As it is most of the time with Navy, the ground attack will be the key factor in this game. The Midshipmen average nearly 360 yards per game on the ground, while the Irish give up around 160. However, Michigan did rack up 303 on the ground against Notre Dame. This is a tough game to pick as Navy has been playing really well this season and I'm still not sure how good the Irish are. However, Navy hasn't won in South Bend in a decade, so I'll go with the home team. Irish 27, Midshipmen 24.
Wake Forest at #3 Clemson
The Demon Deacons fell to Virginia Tech last weekend, and now have to travel to Death Valley to face the (forgotten) Clemson Tigers. The reigning champs have been on a tear their last five games, scoring no fewer than 45 points. Yes, the competition has been lackluster, but Clemson is still dominant on all fronts. Their defense is statistically better than last season, as they now give up an average of just 251.5 yards and 11.3 points per game. Wake Forest has the 13th best offense in the nation, but could struggle again this week. The Hokies held Wake to under 300 yards and racked up 3 sacks and 7 tackles for loss. Clemson will be living in their backfield. On the other side of the ball, the Tigers have still been rolling, and Wake doesn't have the defense to slow down that many weapons. Watch for Travis Etienne to have a big day and Clemson flexes their muscles even more. I've enjoyed watching Wake this season, but they aren't ready for this. No one in the ACC is touching Clemson and they're still a force to be reckoned with. Tigers 56, Demon Deacons 14.
#4 Georgia at #12 Auburn
Another big battle in the SEC lines up this week as the Bulldogs travel West to take on Auburn. This is likely Georgia's last big test before the SEC Championship, but could easily derail their chances of getting back into the playoffs. Auburn is coming off their BYE week, and will look to put a lot of pressure on Jake Fromm. The Tigers have 64 tackles for loss this season, and one of the best defensive fronts in the nation. Georgia's offense is extremely balanced, so I'm anticipating a good battle with Auburn's defense. The Tiger offense still struggles though, and Bo Nix will need a stellar performance if they want a chance to knock off the Dawgs. Georgia gives up fewer than 75 yards per game on the ground, and Auburn will need to give Bo Nix some help. If they can't establish a solid ground attack, this game is over before it starts. Defense keeps it tight, but Georgia edges them out. Dawgs win 26-21.
#8 Minnesota at #20 Iowa (Battle for the Floyd of Rosedale)
The BIG 10 slate isn't crazy this week, but we do have a ranked match up in the West Division. The red hot Golden Gophers are now ranked 8th after their victory against Penn State and they're looking to tighten their grip on the division title. They take on the Hawkeyes this week as they fight for a Bronze Pig. That's right folks, Floyd is on the line in a classic BIG 10 rivalry that should be a grinder. Iowa has been about what I expected them to be this year, very solid on defense, but struggling a bit on offense. Losing their top playmakers in Noah Fant and TJ Hockenson has really hindered the Hawkeye offense, but Nate Stanley is still a tough QB to beat in Kinnick. For the Gophers, their offense is loaded with talent. Their three-headed rushing monster at running back is led by Rodney Smith, who's nearly at 1,000 yards. Rashod Batemen and Tyler Johnson give DBs a lot of headaches in the air raid, with more than 1,500 yards and 15 TDs between them. Iowa's defense gives up an average of just 11.7 points per game, but I really like how the Gophers are playing right now. Tight one, but Minnesota takes the pig! Gophers 25, Hawkeyes 20.
#10 Oklahoma at #13 Baylor
The Battle in the Big XII this week pits the Sooners against the Bears. Baylor remains unbeaten, but Oklahoma will be the first ranked team on their schedule. The Bears' offense can do some damage, averaging 35.3 points per game, but will need to be top notch to knock off the Sooners. Oklahoma's offense is nearly impossible to stop, and they'll be looking for some statement wins to end the season after narrowly defeating Iowa State last week. Baylor's defense gives up just 19 points on average, but they haven't faced the likes of Jaylen Hurts yet. He's nearly at 2,800 yards passing with a 24 to 4 TD to INT ratio and has another 869 yards and 15 TDs on the ground. Baylor will need to contain Hurts if they want any chance to pull off this upset. Baylor is one of the best in the country at pressuring the QB, so they'll need to keep Hurts uncomfortable all game long. Gameday is in Waco for this one, and it's never easy to play on the road against the Bears. However, I think Oklahoma has enough talent to outlast Baylor. We could see this match up again in the Big XII Championship, but this round goes to the Sooners. Oklahoma wins on the road 38-34.
#14 Wisconsin at Nebraska (Battle for the Freedom Trophy)
In what will likely be my least favorite game by the end of the weekend, my beloved Huskers host the Wisconsin Badgers. Nebraska is coming off of another BYE week, but this team has not looked prepared for any of their games since the early part of the season. Wisconsin has stumbled as of late, but still has a Heisman caliber player in their backfield to go along with the nation's 2nd ranked total defense. The Badgers are looking to keep the pressure on Minnesota in the West division and keep their win streak against the Huskers alive. Wisconsin has won six straight in this series, including every game since the Freedom Trophy was introduced. This is because they're often led by tremendous running backs, which is the case yet again. Jonathan Taylor could easily run for 342 yards and 4 TDs against the Blackshirts in this game, but I imagine they'll cut off the Junior around 215 yards and 2 or 3 TDs. Regardless, I don't expect Nebraska to compete much in this game. I probably sound pretty negative at this point, but this was one of my pegged losses from the beginning of the year, and Wisconsin has a very solid team this year. The Husker offense has been unable to create much when needed, and with star freshman Wandale Robinson likely out, there's even lower expectations. I hope to see some flashes, but I think this game will be wrapped up fairly quickly. Wisconsin 38, Nebraska 10. At least I'll have fun watching Jonathan Taylor run around *shrugs*.
Now for some quick hit predictions on a few other interesting games this week:
Kansas at #22 Oklahoma State- The Pokes are heavily favored, but that's where a home team can get a little breezy. Les Miles is making this Jayhawk team dangerous, and you never should overlook The Mad Hatter. Jayhawks make it interesting for a while, but Chuba Hubbard should take care of business and the Cowboys win 38-28.
#19 Texas at Iowa State- Sticking with the Big XII, we have a very interesting match up in Ames, IA. Texas has edged out the two teams from Kansas, but overall have really struggled in Big XII play. Iowa State nearly completed a comeback for a victory on the road in Norman last week, and I think they'll take this one at home. Texas gives up nearly 300 yards per game through the air and Brock Purdy threw for 282 and 5 TDs against the Sooners. Cyclones 37, Longhorns 28.
UCLA at #7 Utah- The Utes have the PAC-12 South nearly wrapped up, but UCLA and USC are right on their heels, Utah already lost to the Trojans of LA, but now host the Bruins in a sneaky trap game. Chip Kelley's squad has won three straight and is coming off of a BYE week. They'll give Utah some headaches, but the Utes 3rd ranked defense will push them to victory. Utes win 35-17.
USC at Cal- Staying out West, we look to Berkley, CA as the Golden Bears host the Trojans. Both teams have been solid at times this year, but injuries have held them back from their full potential. Cal's defense has kept them in most games, but not having Garbers has destroyed their offensive production. USC makes a few big plays and wins this one 31-20.
Thank you for reading all of my Gameday predictions and I hope you all have a fantastic Saturday. It could get rough, but I'm still excited to watch the Huskers, GO BIG RED!
#CFBKnowItAll
Alex Fernando
Week 11 Prediction Results: 6-4
Overall Prediction Results: 86-48
Indiana at #9 Penn State
The Nittany Lions fell short against the Gophers last week and now face a tough Indiana team at home. The Hoosiers have played well this season, but haven't faced much in terms of competition overall. They average 34 points per game and are led by Sophomore RB Stevie Scott III (737 yards and 9 TDs) and Junior WR Whop Philyor (813 yards and 3 TDs). They'll be going against one of the toughest defenses in the country though, as Penn State gives up just 300 yards and 12 points per game on average. I'm guessing their offense will bounce back against a mediocre Hoosier defense, and KJ Hamler should have a big day. I've got Penn State winning 33-20 in this one, ending the Hoosier's streak of 4 straight wins. I wouldn't be upset seeing another upset though!
Michigan State at #15 Michigan
Big brother and little brother meet again as the 4-5 Spartans travel to Ann Arbor to take on the "reborn" 7-2 Wolverines. Michigan's offense has come alive the last couple of weeks, putting up 45 and 38 points on Notre Dame and Maryland respectively. They're coming off of a BYE week, and they'll look to get RB Zach Charbonet rolling again quick. The freshman has had 4 TDs over the past two games and averages 5 yards per carry. Michigan State has struggled in recent weeks, losing 4 straight. The first three were blowouts to Wisconsin, Ohio State and Penn State, but a close loss to Illinois last week has many Spartan fans concerned. The offense has been stagnant, averaging just 23 points per game. They'll be going against Michigan's 7th ranked defense, so I don't expect much in this one. Rivalry games are always fun, and Harbaugh does not do well in them, but I'll ride with the Wolverines in this game. Michigan 28, Michigan State 13.
#23 Navy at #16 Notre Dame
The Midshipmen travel to South Bend to take on Notre Dame in a classic rivalry game. Statistically, these teams match up quite well. Navy averages 40 points per game and gives up just 18 while the Irish average 34 and give up 19. As it is most of the time with Navy, the ground attack will be the key factor in this game. The Midshipmen average nearly 360 yards per game on the ground, while the Irish give up around 160. However, Michigan did rack up 303 on the ground against Notre Dame. This is a tough game to pick as Navy has been playing really well this season and I'm still not sure how good the Irish are. However, Navy hasn't won in South Bend in a decade, so I'll go with the home team. Irish 27, Midshipmen 24.
Wake Forest at #3 Clemson
The Demon Deacons fell to Virginia Tech last weekend, and now have to travel to Death Valley to face the (forgotten) Clemson Tigers. The reigning champs have been on a tear their last five games, scoring no fewer than 45 points. Yes, the competition has been lackluster, but Clemson is still dominant on all fronts. Their defense is statistically better than last season, as they now give up an average of just 251.5 yards and 11.3 points per game. Wake Forest has the 13th best offense in the nation, but could struggle again this week. The Hokies held Wake to under 300 yards and racked up 3 sacks and 7 tackles for loss. Clemson will be living in their backfield. On the other side of the ball, the Tigers have still been rolling, and Wake doesn't have the defense to slow down that many weapons. Watch for Travis Etienne to have a big day and Clemson flexes their muscles even more. I've enjoyed watching Wake this season, but they aren't ready for this. No one in the ACC is touching Clemson and they're still a force to be reckoned with. Tigers 56, Demon Deacons 14.
#4 Georgia at #12 Auburn
Another big battle in the SEC lines up this week as the Bulldogs travel West to take on Auburn. This is likely Georgia's last big test before the SEC Championship, but could easily derail their chances of getting back into the playoffs. Auburn is coming off their BYE week, and will look to put a lot of pressure on Jake Fromm. The Tigers have 64 tackles for loss this season, and one of the best defensive fronts in the nation. Georgia's offense is extremely balanced, so I'm anticipating a good battle with Auburn's defense. The Tiger offense still struggles though, and Bo Nix will need a stellar performance if they want a chance to knock off the Dawgs. Georgia gives up fewer than 75 yards per game on the ground, and Auburn will need to give Bo Nix some help. If they can't establish a solid ground attack, this game is over before it starts. Defense keeps it tight, but Georgia edges them out. Dawgs win 26-21.
#8 Minnesota at #20 Iowa (Battle for the Floyd of Rosedale)
The BIG 10 slate isn't crazy this week, but we do have a ranked match up in the West Division. The red hot Golden Gophers are now ranked 8th after their victory against Penn State and they're looking to tighten their grip on the division title. They take on the Hawkeyes this week as they fight for a Bronze Pig. That's right folks, Floyd is on the line in a classic BIG 10 rivalry that should be a grinder. Iowa has been about what I expected them to be this year, very solid on defense, but struggling a bit on offense. Losing their top playmakers in Noah Fant and TJ Hockenson has really hindered the Hawkeye offense, but Nate Stanley is still a tough QB to beat in Kinnick. For the Gophers, their offense is loaded with talent. Their three-headed rushing monster at running back is led by Rodney Smith, who's nearly at 1,000 yards. Rashod Batemen and Tyler Johnson give DBs a lot of headaches in the air raid, with more than 1,500 yards and 15 TDs between them. Iowa's defense gives up an average of just 11.7 points per game, but I really like how the Gophers are playing right now. Tight one, but Minnesota takes the pig! Gophers 25, Hawkeyes 20.
#10 Oklahoma at #13 Baylor
The Battle in the Big XII this week pits the Sooners against the Bears. Baylor remains unbeaten, but Oklahoma will be the first ranked team on their schedule. The Bears' offense can do some damage, averaging 35.3 points per game, but will need to be top notch to knock off the Sooners. Oklahoma's offense is nearly impossible to stop, and they'll be looking for some statement wins to end the season after narrowly defeating Iowa State last week. Baylor's defense gives up just 19 points on average, but they haven't faced the likes of Jaylen Hurts yet. He's nearly at 2,800 yards passing with a 24 to 4 TD to INT ratio and has another 869 yards and 15 TDs on the ground. Baylor will need to contain Hurts if they want any chance to pull off this upset. Baylor is one of the best in the country at pressuring the QB, so they'll need to keep Hurts uncomfortable all game long. Gameday is in Waco for this one, and it's never easy to play on the road against the Bears. However, I think Oklahoma has enough talent to outlast Baylor. We could see this match up again in the Big XII Championship, but this round goes to the Sooners. Oklahoma wins on the road 38-34.
#14 Wisconsin at Nebraska (Battle for the Freedom Trophy)
In what will likely be my least favorite game by the end of the weekend, my beloved Huskers host the Wisconsin Badgers. Nebraska is coming off of another BYE week, but this team has not looked prepared for any of their games since the early part of the season. Wisconsin has stumbled as of late, but still has a Heisman caliber player in their backfield to go along with the nation's 2nd ranked total defense. The Badgers are looking to keep the pressure on Minnesota in the West division and keep their win streak against the Huskers alive. Wisconsin has won six straight in this series, including every game since the Freedom Trophy was introduced. This is because they're often led by tremendous running backs, which is the case yet again. Jonathan Taylor could easily run for 342 yards and 4 TDs against the Blackshirts in this game, but I imagine they'll cut off the Junior around 215 yards and 2 or 3 TDs. Regardless, I don't expect Nebraska to compete much in this game. I probably sound pretty negative at this point, but this was one of my pegged losses from the beginning of the year, and Wisconsin has a very solid team this year. The Husker offense has been unable to create much when needed, and with star freshman Wandale Robinson likely out, there's even lower expectations. I hope to see some flashes, but I think this game will be wrapped up fairly quickly. Wisconsin 38, Nebraska 10. At least I'll have fun watching Jonathan Taylor run around *shrugs*.
Now for some quick hit predictions on a few other interesting games this week:
Kansas at #22 Oklahoma State- The Pokes are heavily favored, but that's where a home team can get a little breezy. Les Miles is making this Jayhawk team dangerous, and you never should overlook The Mad Hatter. Jayhawks make it interesting for a while, but Chuba Hubbard should take care of business and the Cowboys win 38-28.
#19 Texas at Iowa State- Sticking with the Big XII, we have a very interesting match up in Ames, IA. Texas has edged out the two teams from Kansas, but overall have really struggled in Big XII play. Iowa State nearly completed a comeback for a victory on the road in Norman last week, and I think they'll take this one at home. Texas gives up nearly 300 yards per game through the air and Brock Purdy threw for 282 and 5 TDs against the Sooners. Cyclones 37, Longhorns 28.
UCLA at #7 Utah- The Utes have the PAC-12 South nearly wrapped up, but UCLA and USC are right on their heels, Utah already lost to the Trojans of LA, but now host the Bruins in a sneaky trap game. Chip Kelley's squad has won three straight and is coming off of a BYE week. They'll give Utah some headaches, but the Utes 3rd ranked defense will push them to victory. Utes win 35-17.
USC at Cal- Staying out West, we look to Berkley, CA as the Golden Bears host the Trojans. Both teams have been solid at times this year, but injuries have held them back from their full potential. Cal's defense has kept them in most games, but not having Garbers has destroyed their offensive production. USC makes a few big plays and wins this one 31-20.
Thank you for reading all of my Gameday predictions and I hope you all have a fantastic Saturday. It could get rough, but I'm still excited to watch the Huskers, GO BIG RED!
#CFBKnowItAll
Alex Fernando
Friday, November 8, 2019
Week 11 Predictions
It's another BYE week for the Huskers football fans, but there are plenty of good games to watch regardless! Let's be real anyways, Nebraska has not provided us with much to watch as of late anyways, so maybe a break isn't the worst thing. Anyhow, welcome to Week 11 in College Football, which means we're in the heart of November Football. This is when some of the best games of the year are played in my opinion, and we've got a great slate of games to watch this weekend. This post has all of my predictions on the big games to watch, so let's see if I can turn my record around from the past couple weeks. Enjoy!
Week 10 Prediction Results: 7-6
Overall Prediction Results: 80-44
#4 Penn State at #17 Minnesota
We start in the BIG 10 where unbeaten cross conference foes meet in the Twin Cities as the Gophers take on the Nittany Lions. Yes, the Gophers are unbeaten and are looking to upset Penn State's hopes of admittance into the College Football Playoffs. Both teams are off BYEs and had extra time to prepare for this one. Minnesota has a very balanced attack on offense, but it's highlighted by their three-headed rushing monster. Rodney Smith leads a stacked backfield with 889 yards and 7 TDs, but don't be shocked when Mohamed Ibrahim and Shannon Brooks break a couple loose. They will put Penn State's second ranked rush defense to the test. On the outside, look for Rashod Bateman and Tyler Johnson to give the Nittany Lion secondary some headaches. Both of these Gophers are deep threat receivers and love to go up and get it with their size (Bateman: 6'2 210 lbs, Johnson: 6'2 205 lbs). They've combined for 13 TDs on the season thus far, and Penn State gives up an average of 211 yards per game through the air. Penn State's offense is led by Sophomore QB, Sean Clifford. Clifford is completing 62% of his passes this season with just under 2,000 yards and a 20 to 3 TD to INT ratio. He's added another 280 and 3 TDs on the ground as well. This game will show the Gophers true colors, and while they are a very capable team, I don't think they'll quite keep up with the Nittany Lions in this one. They have the advantage of playing at home, but I like Penn State to win this one. A lot can be learned in this game! Nittany Lions 35, Minnesota 17.
#19 Wake Forest at Virginia Tech
The Demon Deacons take their red hot offense into Blacksburg to take on the Hokies. Virginia Tech is looking to fight their way back into the ACC Coastal Division, but they have to try to slow down the 7th best offense in the nation to do so. Wake is averaging 510 yards per game to go along with their 38 points. Junior QB Jamie Newman has more than 2,000 yards passing this season with 20 TDs and just 5 picks. His star wideout, Sage Surratt, has accounted for nearly half of that with 948 yards and 9 TDs, ranking 4th in the nation in receiving. Virginia Tech is traditionally known as "DBU", but they're giving up an average of 244 yards through the air. On offense, the Hokies haven't had much to lean on. The experts are predicting this one close, but I think Wake is going to open it up as the head toward their game with Clemson. Demon Deacons win on the road 37-21.
#12 Baylor at TCU
One of the few true Texas rivalries left, we have the Bears and the Horned Frogs. Baylor has yet to lose this season, but TCU always loves to play spoiler. The Horned Frogs can still put up points, and they're led by Freshman QB Max Duggan. He's been solid in his first year on campus, throwing for more than 1,400 yards with 12 TDs and 4 picks. Senior RB Darius Anderson and Junior WR Jalen Reagor are big plays waiting to happen, but the Baylor defense is stingy this year. They rank 32nd overall, but 20th in scoring defense, giving up just 18.5 points per game. On offense, Charlie Brewer will lead the way, throwing for 2,143 yards along with 14 TDs and 3 picks this season. With Oklahoma and Texas looming in the next couple weeks, many have pegged this as a trap game for the Bears. However, I doubt Matt Rhule has let his team look past the Horned Frogs, and Baylor's unbeaten season should continue in Fort Worth. Tough game against the rival Frogs, but Bears edge them out 27-24. Sic 'Em!
#16 Kansas State at Texas
The Longhorns are looking to become bowl eligible as they host the rising Wildcats of K-State. Texas did not have a very good month of October, and are coming off of a BYE week to get their heads right as they make a late season push to get back into the Big XII Title picture. The Horns have really struggled on defense, giving up 465 yards per game and 31.5 points on average. They will have to deal with a pesky rushing attack from the Wildcats that averages 217 yards per game and ranks 3rd in time of possession. Texas likely won't have the ball much in this game, but Sam Ehlinger usually does well with what he gets. The Junior has 2,378 yards through the air this season with another 361 on the ground. He's accounted for 28 total TDs this season, and I think he'll be the difference maker in this one. K-State will play tough, but I like the Longhorns to win at home. Texas 30, K-State 26. Hook 'Em!
#18 Iowa at #13 Wisconsin (Battle for the Heartland Trophy)
A bronze bull is on the line as the Hawkeyes and Badgers meet for the 93rd time in this BIG 10 Rivalry. Iowa and Wisconsin are going to be battling for more than just the bull however, as both are looking to take a big step forward in a race for the BIG 10 West Division title. The Gophers lead the West with a 5-0 conference record, but still have to play both Iowa and Wisconsin, which means the winner of this game will likely battle the Gophers for the top spot (depending on if they win or lose against Penn State). Anyways, looking at the game in Madison, the Badgers are heavily favored. They've fallen off a bit the last couple weeks, but Wisconsin is still a dominating force on both sides of the ball. They boast the nation's number one defense while giving up just 11.4 points per game. On offense, it all runs through Jonathan Taylor... or more accurately, Taylor runs through you. The Junior running back has over 1,000 yards for the third straight season along with 15 TDs and a 5.7 yard per carry average. He's been bottled up the last couple of weeks, but is rested after a BYE week and is ready to roll. He'll be tested though, as the Hawkeyes give up just 87.8 rush yards per game on average, ranking 8th in the nation. The defense is stout, but offensively Iowa has struggled this year. Losing their two best offensive weapons (TEs Noah Fant and TJ Hockenson) to the NFL draft can do that to a team, and the Hawks are averaging just 24 points per game. This will be a true BIG 10 grinder, so I wouldn't expect a lot of points. I'm giving the edge to Wisconsin though. Playing at home and having a playmaker like Jonathan Taylor will be too much for Iowa. Badgers win an important divisional game at home 23-10.
#2 LSU at #3 Alabama
This is always one of the best games of the year in College Football, and I'm never upset watching LSU and Bama get together. The Tide and the Tigers meet again for the 84th time, with Alabama winning the previous 8. LSU is the hot team this year however, and Heisman candidate Joe Burrow is the catalyst. Burrow has exploded with the Tigers offense this year, throwing for more than 2,800 yards with 30 TDs and just 4 picks. Across the field, Bama has their own Heisman caliber QB, Tua Tagovailoa. The Bama star has thrown for 2,166 yards with 27 TDs and 2 picks so far this season, but will be a game time decision after a small ankle surgery a couple of weeks ago. This won't be like the Bama-LSU games of old where it's 10-3 at the final buzzer. Both of these offense average close to 50 points per game and well over 500 yards. This is arguably one of the best collection of wideouts on one field in the nation, and both teams have backs who average just under 6 yards per carry. I've become a bit of an LSU fan this year, watching them roll through a majority of their schedule has been a big surprise from last year. However, this is their first big road test since Texas in September, and Bama is nearly unbeatable in all facets, especially at home. I'm rooting for the Tigers (we need some new blood in the playoffs), but I think Alabama will take this at home. The loser of this game definitely takes a hit, but is in no way out of the Playoff hunt! Crimson Tide 38, Tigers 33. Roll Tide.
Now for some quick hit predictions on other interesting games:
Louisville at Miami- The Cardinal and the Canes meet down in South Beach as they fight for bowl eligibility. Both teams have been up and down this season, but one thing has been fairly consistent, the Miami defense. Apart from Virginia Tech, the Hurricanes have held opponents to 28 points or less, giving up just 22 in their last two games combined. They rank 4th in the nation with 76 tackles for loss and 3rd with 34 sacks on the season. Look for them to cause havoc for the Louisville backfield. Miami 30, Louisville 14.
USC at Arizona State- USC needs a little help, but they're still a contender in the PAC-12 South division. The last part of their schedule starts with a trip down to the desert to take on the Sun Devils. Both teams have talent, but my key factor is ASU running back Eno Benjamin. The Junior needs more carries in my opinion, but averages 4.4 yards per carry and has 7 TDs on the season. USC gives up 184 on the ground per game and if the Sun Devils get Benjamin rolling, he'll be tough to stop. Arizona State edges out the Trojans 36-34.
Illinois at Michigan State- This is not a headline game in the BIG 10 by any means, but an intriguing one nonetheless. Sparty has lost their previous three games, getting blown out in each one (Ohio State, Wisconsin and Penn State). The Illini are on a three game win streak, but have faced slightly easier competition (Wisconsin, Purdue and Rutgers). Lovie Smith has his team on the brink of bowl eligibility, and they've been playing very good defense lately. Michigan State should get back on track in this game, but the spread might be a bit closer. Spartans 28, Illini 20.
Iowa State at #9 Oklahoma- Last time Matt Campbell and the Cyclones were in Norman, they upset the Sooners 38-31 with backup, walk-on QB Kyle Kempt. Brock Purdy has been decent this year, but Oklahoma has too many weapons and already had their dumb loss of the season. They need statement wins to get back into the Playoff picture and this should be a blowout. Sooners 47, Cyclones 21.
Thank you for reading all of my Week 11 Predictions and enjoy the games! Also, don't forget to listen to the latest episode of my podcast with Nate Muhlbach, The 2nd String!
#CFBKnowItAll
Alex Fernando
Week 10 Prediction Results: 7-6
Overall Prediction Results: 80-44
#4 Penn State at #17 Minnesota
We start in the BIG 10 where unbeaten cross conference foes meet in the Twin Cities as the Gophers take on the Nittany Lions. Yes, the Gophers are unbeaten and are looking to upset Penn State's hopes of admittance into the College Football Playoffs. Both teams are off BYEs and had extra time to prepare for this one. Minnesota has a very balanced attack on offense, but it's highlighted by their three-headed rushing monster. Rodney Smith leads a stacked backfield with 889 yards and 7 TDs, but don't be shocked when Mohamed Ibrahim and Shannon Brooks break a couple loose. They will put Penn State's second ranked rush defense to the test. On the outside, look for Rashod Bateman and Tyler Johnson to give the Nittany Lion secondary some headaches. Both of these Gophers are deep threat receivers and love to go up and get it with their size (Bateman: 6'2 210 lbs, Johnson: 6'2 205 lbs). They've combined for 13 TDs on the season thus far, and Penn State gives up an average of 211 yards per game through the air. Penn State's offense is led by Sophomore QB, Sean Clifford. Clifford is completing 62% of his passes this season with just under 2,000 yards and a 20 to 3 TD to INT ratio. He's added another 280 and 3 TDs on the ground as well. This game will show the Gophers true colors, and while they are a very capable team, I don't think they'll quite keep up with the Nittany Lions in this one. They have the advantage of playing at home, but I like Penn State to win this one. A lot can be learned in this game! Nittany Lions 35, Minnesota 17.
#19 Wake Forest at Virginia Tech
The Demon Deacons take their red hot offense into Blacksburg to take on the Hokies. Virginia Tech is looking to fight their way back into the ACC Coastal Division, but they have to try to slow down the 7th best offense in the nation to do so. Wake is averaging 510 yards per game to go along with their 38 points. Junior QB Jamie Newman has more than 2,000 yards passing this season with 20 TDs and just 5 picks. His star wideout, Sage Surratt, has accounted for nearly half of that with 948 yards and 9 TDs, ranking 4th in the nation in receiving. Virginia Tech is traditionally known as "DBU", but they're giving up an average of 244 yards through the air. On offense, the Hokies haven't had much to lean on. The experts are predicting this one close, but I think Wake is going to open it up as the head toward their game with Clemson. Demon Deacons win on the road 37-21.
#12 Baylor at TCU
One of the few true Texas rivalries left, we have the Bears and the Horned Frogs. Baylor has yet to lose this season, but TCU always loves to play spoiler. The Horned Frogs can still put up points, and they're led by Freshman QB Max Duggan. He's been solid in his first year on campus, throwing for more than 1,400 yards with 12 TDs and 4 picks. Senior RB Darius Anderson and Junior WR Jalen Reagor are big plays waiting to happen, but the Baylor defense is stingy this year. They rank 32nd overall, but 20th in scoring defense, giving up just 18.5 points per game. On offense, Charlie Brewer will lead the way, throwing for 2,143 yards along with 14 TDs and 3 picks this season. With Oklahoma and Texas looming in the next couple weeks, many have pegged this as a trap game for the Bears. However, I doubt Matt Rhule has let his team look past the Horned Frogs, and Baylor's unbeaten season should continue in Fort Worth. Tough game against the rival Frogs, but Bears edge them out 27-24. Sic 'Em!
#16 Kansas State at Texas
The Longhorns are looking to become bowl eligible as they host the rising Wildcats of K-State. Texas did not have a very good month of October, and are coming off of a BYE week to get their heads right as they make a late season push to get back into the Big XII Title picture. The Horns have really struggled on defense, giving up 465 yards per game and 31.5 points on average. They will have to deal with a pesky rushing attack from the Wildcats that averages 217 yards per game and ranks 3rd in time of possession. Texas likely won't have the ball much in this game, but Sam Ehlinger usually does well with what he gets. The Junior has 2,378 yards through the air this season with another 361 on the ground. He's accounted for 28 total TDs this season, and I think he'll be the difference maker in this one. K-State will play tough, but I like the Longhorns to win at home. Texas 30, K-State 26. Hook 'Em!
#18 Iowa at #13 Wisconsin (Battle for the Heartland Trophy)
A bronze bull is on the line as the Hawkeyes and Badgers meet for the 93rd time in this BIG 10 Rivalry. Iowa and Wisconsin are going to be battling for more than just the bull however, as both are looking to take a big step forward in a race for the BIG 10 West Division title. The Gophers lead the West with a 5-0 conference record, but still have to play both Iowa and Wisconsin, which means the winner of this game will likely battle the Gophers for the top spot (depending on if they win or lose against Penn State). Anyways, looking at the game in Madison, the Badgers are heavily favored. They've fallen off a bit the last couple weeks, but Wisconsin is still a dominating force on both sides of the ball. They boast the nation's number one defense while giving up just 11.4 points per game. On offense, it all runs through Jonathan Taylor... or more accurately, Taylor runs through you. The Junior running back has over 1,000 yards for the third straight season along with 15 TDs and a 5.7 yard per carry average. He's been bottled up the last couple of weeks, but is rested after a BYE week and is ready to roll. He'll be tested though, as the Hawkeyes give up just 87.8 rush yards per game on average, ranking 8th in the nation. The defense is stout, but offensively Iowa has struggled this year. Losing their two best offensive weapons (TEs Noah Fant and TJ Hockenson) to the NFL draft can do that to a team, and the Hawks are averaging just 24 points per game. This will be a true BIG 10 grinder, so I wouldn't expect a lot of points. I'm giving the edge to Wisconsin though. Playing at home and having a playmaker like Jonathan Taylor will be too much for Iowa. Badgers win an important divisional game at home 23-10.
#2 LSU at #3 Alabama
This is always one of the best games of the year in College Football, and I'm never upset watching LSU and Bama get together. The Tide and the Tigers meet again for the 84th time, with Alabama winning the previous 8. LSU is the hot team this year however, and Heisman candidate Joe Burrow is the catalyst. Burrow has exploded with the Tigers offense this year, throwing for more than 2,800 yards with 30 TDs and just 4 picks. Across the field, Bama has their own Heisman caliber QB, Tua Tagovailoa. The Bama star has thrown for 2,166 yards with 27 TDs and 2 picks so far this season, but will be a game time decision after a small ankle surgery a couple of weeks ago. This won't be like the Bama-LSU games of old where it's 10-3 at the final buzzer. Both of these offense average close to 50 points per game and well over 500 yards. This is arguably one of the best collection of wideouts on one field in the nation, and both teams have backs who average just under 6 yards per carry. I've become a bit of an LSU fan this year, watching them roll through a majority of their schedule has been a big surprise from last year. However, this is their first big road test since Texas in September, and Bama is nearly unbeatable in all facets, especially at home. I'm rooting for the Tigers (we need some new blood in the playoffs), but I think Alabama will take this at home. The loser of this game definitely takes a hit, but is in no way out of the Playoff hunt! Crimson Tide 38, Tigers 33. Roll Tide.
Now for some quick hit predictions on other interesting games:
Louisville at Miami- The Cardinal and the Canes meet down in South Beach as they fight for bowl eligibility. Both teams have been up and down this season, but one thing has been fairly consistent, the Miami defense. Apart from Virginia Tech, the Hurricanes have held opponents to 28 points or less, giving up just 22 in their last two games combined. They rank 4th in the nation with 76 tackles for loss and 3rd with 34 sacks on the season. Look for them to cause havoc for the Louisville backfield. Miami 30, Louisville 14.
USC at Arizona State- USC needs a little help, but they're still a contender in the PAC-12 South division. The last part of their schedule starts with a trip down to the desert to take on the Sun Devils. Both teams have talent, but my key factor is ASU running back Eno Benjamin. The Junior needs more carries in my opinion, but averages 4.4 yards per carry and has 7 TDs on the season. USC gives up 184 on the ground per game and if the Sun Devils get Benjamin rolling, he'll be tough to stop. Arizona State edges out the Trojans 36-34.
Illinois at Michigan State- This is not a headline game in the BIG 10 by any means, but an intriguing one nonetheless. Sparty has lost their previous three games, getting blown out in each one (Ohio State, Wisconsin and Penn State). The Illini are on a three game win streak, but have faced slightly easier competition (Wisconsin, Purdue and Rutgers). Lovie Smith has his team on the brink of bowl eligibility, and they've been playing very good defense lately. Michigan State should get back on track in this game, but the spread might be a bit closer. Spartans 28, Illini 20.
Iowa State at #9 Oklahoma- Last time Matt Campbell and the Cyclones were in Norman, they upset the Sooners 38-31 with backup, walk-on QB Kyle Kempt. Brock Purdy has been decent this year, but Oklahoma has too many weapons and already had their dumb loss of the season. They need statement wins to get back into the Playoff picture and this should be a blowout. Sooners 47, Cyclones 21.
Thank you for reading all of my Week 11 Predictions and enjoy the games! Also, don't forget to listen to the latest episode of my podcast with Nate Muhlbach, The 2nd String!
#CFBKnowItAll
Alex Fernando
Thursday, November 7, 2019
Week 10 Reflections
These reflection posts are becoming more and more difficult to write as the season trudges on. Nebraska loves to make each week more painful than the last, which means I have to relive it all as I write my reflections. Nonetheless, this post has my break down and analysis of the Huskers' loss at Purdue as well as the other happenings around college football, including my reactions to the first CFB Playoff Rankings of 2019! Read on, relax because Nebraska will be on BYE again and enjoy.
I'm not entirely sure why I deviated from my original season prediction of Nebraska losing on the road to Purdue, but I'm guessing most of it was based off of sheer hope on the Huskers reaching a bowl game this season. Regardless, I mistakenly believed the Huskers would show up to play football this past Saturday in West Lafayette, and soon realized this was not the case. Yet another 4th quarter lead was lost to a team playing with not one, but two back up QBs, and there's just no good way to explain how bad the offense has gotten. I have my GOOD, EXPECTED and BAD categories broken down below. Beware, there wasn't much good to say about this one.
GOOD- Barrett Pickering made all of his kicks and Jack Stoll and Kade Warner are great route runners. To be honest, that's about all the good I could squeeze out from that pitiful performance at Purdue. Pickering was 2/2 on field goals and made all three extra points, the special teams unit is progressing! Jumping to the wideouts, even though they did not get the ball as much as they should have in this game, Jack Stoll and Kade Warner were almost alway wide open. Scheme plays a role in that, but true separation comes from running crisp routes, unfortunately Adrian doesn't know they exist or that their existence is a substantial benefit to him and the team. Again, not much good to say about this performance, but JD Spielman did have 6 catches for 123 yards. It's nice someone finally decided to get him more involved downfield.
EXPECTED- Adrain's struggles in executing the offense. We've seen it all year, but for one reason or another, Adrian Martinez does not have it right now. There is no quick decision making ability with Martinez, and his throws are either too high or easily falling into the hands of the opponent after telegraphing where it's going. There's no progression with his reads downfield on the defense and when running the ball, he looks hesitant. I'm not doubting this kid's athletic ability by any means, but it's clear there's a significant gap in his development, and the coaches need to address this sooner rather than later. I had a bad feeling the offense would struggle in this game, even against a "undermanned and undersized" Purdue defense. Martinez finished the game with 247 passing yards, an interception and just over 56% completion rating adding another 58 rushing yards and two TDs on the ground. Overall, his performance isn't statistically bad, but watching his performance gives a bit more context to the story. He threw at least 3 bubble screen passes into the dirt and should've had at least one, probably two more interceptions. This offense is supposed to run through Martinez, but he's really struggling this season. I expected a poor performance, which is upsetting in it's own right, but I also expected Frost to stick it out with Adrian even when Vedral could have been and should have been an option. I wouldn't expect much from the offense in the final three games of the season.
BAD- I don't like to criticize the athletes very much, but the BAD from the Purdue game is the lack of effort of players, especially on defense. There were multiple plays last weekend where experienced players like Lamar Jackson or Carlos Davis would be standing around watching as the play continued on without them. One play in particular come to mind with Lamar Jackson, as he simply watched Purdue Tightend Payne Durham walk into the end zone with 14 seconds remaining before halftime. It's clear there's still an issue of effort levels given by the players, and that again falls back on the coaching staff. If there are players who aren't going to give their best efforts and fight to win the game, then they should not be on the field. The defense has plenty of issues aside from players giving up on the play, this is not a good look for Frost right now.
Overall, the Purdue loss has a bit more sting to it than does Indiana. Nebraska had opportunities to win both, but Purdue has a tremendous amount of injuries to a majority of their best players, yet their back up QB and third string QB were able to consistently move the ball down the field on the Blackshirts while the Boilermaker defense simply let Nebraska's offense implode on itself while capitalizing on a couple of key mistakes. I don't think Nebraska is going bowling this season, and this team looks worse than last year, and there's still Wisconsin and Iowa left on the schedule. Very disappointing and frustrating if you're a Husker fan.
Now for some highlights of other news and happenings around college football:
- Baylor edged out West Virginia at home to remain unbeaten on the season thus far. They're on the road against the rival Horned Frogs this week followed by two home stands against Oklahoma and Texas. We'll see how long that 0 stays up on their record.
- Both Appalachian State and SMU lost their first games of the season to tough conference opponents.
- Memphis was able to pull off the big win against the Mustangs, now looking to fight for that top G5 spot in the polls as we move through November.
- Georgia edged out the Gators in a tough game thanks to Fromm completing 67% of his passes for 279 and 2 TDs. The Dawgs have the inside track to the SEC Championship yet again in the East.
- Oregon trying to make some statements out West by beating the Trojans by 32 on the road. They're on a likely collision course with the Utes and the winner has an outside shot at a College Football Playoff spot!
- Speaking of the Utes, they held off a dangerous Washington team despite Jacob Eason's 4 TDs. Fortunately for Kyle Wittingham, Eason's 5th passing TD of the game went to the boys in red.
- Notre Dame snuck by Virginia Tech by scoring a late TD with 29 seconds left.
- Wake Forest is proving to everyone why their offense is ranked #7... unfortunately they have Clemson in two weeks. We'll see how that goes.
- Miami knocked off the 'Noles for the third straight year and Willie Taggert was fired because of that... not even two seasons in as Head Coach. I'm sure he's not upset about the $117 million though.
- Don't look now, but UCLA "controls their own destiny" in the PAC-12 South! Their next two games are on the road at Utah and USC, so conference title hopes could be diminished. Nonetheless, watch out for Chip Kelley and his Bruins.
CFB Playoff Rankings Reactions:
I was quite surprised by the committee placing Penn State in the 4th place spot with the first Playoff Rankings of 2019. Only two conferences are represented in the opening rankings, and more interestingly is that only two divisions of the two conferences are represented. A lot is still to be told as Bama and LSU play this week followed by Ohio State and Penn State in a couple weeks. This could play a factor in how far they drop after one of them loses though. Very excited for the next couple of weeks and you all should be too!
Thank you for reading my Week 10 Reflections and be sure to check out the latest episode of my podcast with my good friend and roommate Nate Muhlbach. The 2nd String is your best source for College Football news and analysis, so share with your friends!
#CFBKnowItAll
Alex Fernando
I'm not entirely sure why I deviated from my original season prediction of Nebraska losing on the road to Purdue, but I'm guessing most of it was based off of sheer hope on the Huskers reaching a bowl game this season. Regardless, I mistakenly believed the Huskers would show up to play football this past Saturday in West Lafayette, and soon realized this was not the case. Yet another 4th quarter lead was lost to a team playing with not one, but two back up QBs, and there's just no good way to explain how bad the offense has gotten. I have my GOOD, EXPECTED and BAD categories broken down below. Beware, there wasn't much good to say about this one.
GOOD- Barrett Pickering made all of his kicks and Jack Stoll and Kade Warner are great route runners. To be honest, that's about all the good I could squeeze out from that pitiful performance at Purdue. Pickering was 2/2 on field goals and made all three extra points, the special teams unit is progressing! Jumping to the wideouts, even though they did not get the ball as much as they should have in this game, Jack Stoll and Kade Warner were almost alway wide open. Scheme plays a role in that, but true separation comes from running crisp routes, unfortunately Adrian doesn't know they exist or that their existence is a substantial benefit to him and the team. Again, not much good to say about this performance, but JD Spielman did have 6 catches for 123 yards. It's nice someone finally decided to get him more involved downfield.
EXPECTED- Adrain's struggles in executing the offense. We've seen it all year, but for one reason or another, Adrian Martinez does not have it right now. There is no quick decision making ability with Martinez, and his throws are either too high or easily falling into the hands of the opponent after telegraphing where it's going. There's no progression with his reads downfield on the defense and when running the ball, he looks hesitant. I'm not doubting this kid's athletic ability by any means, but it's clear there's a significant gap in his development, and the coaches need to address this sooner rather than later. I had a bad feeling the offense would struggle in this game, even against a "undermanned and undersized" Purdue defense. Martinez finished the game with 247 passing yards, an interception and just over 56% completion rating adding another 58 rushing yards and two TDs on the ground. Overall, his performance isn't statistically bad, but watching his performance gives a bit more context to the story. He threw at least 3 bubble screen passes into the dirt and should've had at least one, probably two more interceptions. This offense is supposed to run through Martinez, but he's really struggling this season. I expected a poor performance, which is upsetting in it's own right, but I also expected Frost to stick it out with Adrian even when Vedral could have been and should have been an option. I wouldn't expect much from the offense in the final three games of the season.
BAD- I don't like to criticize the athletes very much, but the BAD from the Purdue game is the lack of effort of players, especially on defense. There were multiple plays last weekend where experienced players like Lamar Jackson or Carlos Davis would be standing around watching as the play continued on without them. One play in particular come to mind with Lamar Jackson, as he simply watched Purdue Tightend Payne Durham walk into the end zone with 14 seconds remaining before halftime. It's clear there's still an issue of effort levels given by the players, and that again falls back on the coaching staff. If there are players who aren't going to give their best efforts and fight to win the game, then they should not be on the field. The defense has plenty of issues aside from players giving up on the play, this is not a good look for Frost right now.
Overall, the Purdue loss has a bit more sting to it than does Indiana. Nebraska had opportunities to win both, but Purdue has a tremendous amount of injuries to a majority of their best players, yet their back up QB and third string QB were able to consistently move the ball down the field on the Blackshirts while the Boilermaker defense simply let Nebraska's offense implode on itself while capitalizing on a couple of key mistakes. I don't think Nebraska is going bowling this season, and this team looks worse than last year, and there's still Wisconsin and Iowa left on the schedule. Very disappointing and frustrating if you're a Husker fan.
Now for some highlights of other news and happenings around college football:
- Baylor edged out West Virginia at home to remain unbeaten on the season thus far. They're on the road against the rival Horned Frogs this week followed by two home stands against Oklahoma and Texas. We'll see how long that 0 stays up on their record.
- Both Appalachian State and SMU lost their first games of the season to tough conference opponents.
- Memphis was able to pull off the big win against the Mustangs, now looking to fight for that top G5 spot in the polls as we move through November.
- Georgia edged out the Gators in a tough game thanks to Fromm completing 67% of his passes for 279 and 2 TDs. The Dawgs have the inside track to the SEC Championship yet again in the East.
- Oregon trying to make some statements out West by beating the Trojans by 32 on the road. They're on a likely collision course with the Utes and the winner has an outside shot at a College Football Playoff spot!
- Speaking of the Utes, they held off a dangerous Washington team despite Jacob Eason's 4 TDs. Fortunately for Kyle Wittingham, Eason's 5th passing TD of the game went to the boys in red.
- Notre Dame snuck by Virginia Tech by scoring a late TD with 29 seconds left.
- Wake Forest is proving to everyone why their offense is ranked #7... unfortunately they have Clemson in two weeks. We'll see how that goes.
- Miami knocked off the 'Noles for the third straight year and Willie Taggert was fired because of that... not even two seasons in as Head Coach. I'm sure he's not upset about the $117 million though.
- Don't look now, but UCLA "controls their own destiny" in the PAC-12 South! Their next two games are on the road at Utah and USC, so conference title hopes could be diminished. Nonetheless, watch out for Chip Kelley and his Bruins.
CFB Playoff Rankings Reactions:
I was quite surprised by the committee placing Penn State in the 4th place spot with the first Playoff Rankings of 2019. Only two conferences are represented in the opening rankings, and more interestingly is that only two divisions of the two conferences are represented. A lot is still to be told as Bama and LSU play this week followed by Ohio State and Penn State in a couple weeks. This could play a factor in how far they drop after one of them loses though. Very excited for the next couple of weeks and you all should be too!
Thank you for reading my Week 10 Reflections and be sure to check out the latest episode of my podcast with my good friend and roommate Nate Muhlbach. The 2nd String is your best source for College Football news and analysis, so share with your friends!
#CFBKnowItAll
Alex Fernando
Saturday, November 2, 2019
Week 10 Predictions
Welcome to Week 10 football fans, and welcome to November! This is crunch time for teams looking to make the playoffs, and we've got a couple of matchups that could have playoff implications. My predictions have been a bit off the past couple of weeks, but with a new month of football, we've got a clean slate and I'll get back on track. Here are my games to watch in week 10!
Week 9 Prediction Results: 5-8
Overall Prediction Results: 73-38
Virginia Tech at #16 Notre Dame
The Irish were dismantled by Michigan last week, and now come home to face off against the Hokies. Virginia Tech has not been the most impressive this season, but they've put up 119 points in their last three outings combined. They're also coming off of a BYE week and were able to watch what Michigan did in their win against Notre Dame. Fortunately for Brian Kelly, the Hokies defense isn't nearly as good as Michigan's. The Wolverines held the Irish to just 180 total yards, with only 43 of those on the ground. I would expect Ian Book to be more accurate against VT as well. He was just 8 of 25 last week. Notre Dame should bounce back, and I have them winning at home 37-17.
TCU at Oklahoma State
Both the Horned Frogs and the Cowboys had important conference wins last week, but now deal with each other as November football hits the Big XII. I haven't had much success picking with either of these teams this season, so we'll see how it goes today. The Horned Frogs are led by Freshman QB Max Duggan, who's thrown 11 TDs and just 1 pick so far this season. His counterpart, Cowboys QB Spencer Sanders has struggled more, throwing 13 TDs and 10 interceptions. Luckily, he has Chuba Hubbard to hand off to in the backfield, and Hubbard oftentimes runs wild. The Sophomore leads the nation in rushing by more than 200 yards and averages 172 yards per game. He'll be a big challenge for TCU, who only gives up around 100 yards per game on the ground on average. The Frogs have been stingy on defense, and with OSU losing the Big XII's top wideout to injury this week, they have the edge. TCU wins two in a row 36-21.
Miami at Florida State
The Canes and the Noles meet again as this in-state rivalry features two teams trying to get their historic programs back on track. They've both had some nice wins over the last couple of weeks, but are still not where we're used to seeing either of these teams. FSU will look to lean heavily on their rushing attack with Cam Akers, who has 917 yards and 12 TDs on the ground this year. Miami's defense gives up just 106 yards per game on the ground. The Canes are going to need a big game from their QB, Freshman Jarren Williams, if they want to win this one on the road, but I think they can do it. I know I just made my last prediction based on a home team with a rushing attack, but now I've got the road team with good defense. Hurricanes beat the Seminoles for the third straight year in a 25-21 dogfight. This one is going to be weird ladies and gentlemen.
#9 Utah at Washington
Out West they're still battling for control of the PAC-12, and a possible playoff birth. Utah is the best shot out of the South division, but first they must travel North to take on the Huskies. Washington has been hot and cold throughout the season, but they're always tough at home. They've had a week to sit on the loss to Oregon, and you know Chris Petersen will come out firing. Utah has strong leadership on offense in QB Tyler Huntley and RB Zack Moss, but their true strength lies with the defense. The Utes give up just 10.3 points per game and a national best, 56.4 rushing yards per game on average. Opposing teams have really struggled to move the ball against the boys from Salt Lake City, so this one should be tight. Watch the ground attacks in this one, the running backs will be a big indicator on who will win this game. Washington is difficult to pick against, but I have Utah winning the South Division, and this is an important game for that. Utes win 27-23.
#8 Georgia vs. #6 Florida
The World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party sets us up with a top 10 showdown as Georgia and Florida square off in Jacksonville. This game could also be named SEC East Division Championship, as the winner of this will likely go onto the SEC Championship. Both teams are pretty evenly matched on the stat sheet, so this is not an easy game to predict. Both defenses are tough, but in different ways. Florida loves to pressure the quarterback, recording 29 sacks so far this season. Georgia on the other hand locks down the run game, giving up just 85 yards per game on the ground on average. Each offense has playmakers who need the ball in their hands as much as possible, but the primary factor for victory in this one comes down to the QB play. Jake Fromm hasn't been stellar so far this season, throwing just 9 TDs compared to 3 picks. He's still completing 70% of his passes, and all 3 interceptions came in their loss to South Carolina. On the other side, Kyle Trask has taken over for Felipe Franks, and has been tremendous. Trask has thrown for nearly 1,400 yards thus far, with 14 TDs and just 4 picks. He's completing 67% of his passes so far this season and really commanding the offense well, helping them score 32.5 points per game. Originally I had Georgia winning the division, but Florida could take it with "one slip". Well here's the slip folks, Gators win it in Jacksonville 30-21. CHOMP CHOMP!
#7 Oregon at USC
If it's not one rivalry, it's the other. Oregon survived their last couple games against the dangerous teams from the Evergreen State (Washington & Washington State), but now have to travel down to Los Angeles to face the always dangerous Trojans. USC staged a late 4th quarter comeback to beat Colorado on the road last week, and Kedon Slovis is playing some good football for a freshman tossed out into the QB position. Slovis has thrown for 1,625 yards with 13 TDs and 5 picks. His opponent though, is an expert. Justin Herbert's stat line is tremendous this season, 2,104 yards, 21 TDs, 1 interception and 65% completion rating. He's likely to give the Trojan defense issues today, and the Ducks defense is looking to cause issues of their own. They're ranked 20th in total defense, giving up just over 300 yards on average and 14.8 points per game. The Coliseum is never an easy place to win, but I think the Ducks are pushing for that playoff bid, and there's not room for error now. Oregon 34, USC 26.
#15 SMU at #24 Memphis
College Gameday is in Memphis for this game and I couldn't be happier! The Mustangs and the Tigers are fighting for more than just a simple victory in this one. Winner has the inside track to winning the American Athletic Conference West division, and possibly a New Year's Six Bowl Bid. The Tigers only blemish on the season is a two-point loss on the road at Temple, but have been stellar otherwise, averaging just under 40 points per game. They're led by a powerful ground attack from Redshirt Freshman RB, Kenneth Gainwell. The young buck has nearly 1,000 yards so far this season, with 11 TDs and a staggering 7.1 yards per carry. SMU can move the ball as well however, averaging 504 yards and 43 points per game. I would expect a barn burner in this one, and it's going to be fun to watch! Shane Buechele has been unstoppable this year, throwing for more than 2,300 yards with 20 TDs and 7 picks. I'm riding with the Mustangs this season, and this is a big game to prove they're the best G5 team around. SMU wins a wild one on the road 48-44.
Nebraska at Purdue
The Huskers travel to West Lafayette today, and I had originally pegged this game as a loss for Nebraska. This was before seeing Purdue struggle with injuries all season, but it's still not a safe place to play, especially in November. The Boilermakers are led at QB by Freshman Jack Plummer, who has nearly 1,400 yards with 9 TDs and 6 interceptions. He's only completing 58.5% of his passes, but I'm sure the Husker defense will help boost that number after today. Ugh, I just don't know with these Huskers. Martinez should be back in the lineup, but the offense hasn't been stellar with him under center. There's no rushing threat from Nebraska, so I would expect a heavy dose of Wandale Robinson. I would like to see the Huskers attack downfield more, as Purdue is giving up nearly 250 yards per game through the air. JD Spielman and Wandale Robinson need the ball as much as possible, and Nebraska needs to start taking some shots. Opponents have been loading the box to counter the non-productive rushing attack, and there are big play opportunities against the secondary. I'm never sure what to expect, and Purdue is more than capable of winning this game. However, Nebraska needs this win to move closer toward bowl eligibility, so I'm picking the Huskers!
Nebraska 23, Purdue 21. BOILER DOWN!
Now for some quick hit predictions on other interesting games around the nation:
Virginia at North Carolina- The Fightin' Mack Browns are battling in the ACC and find themselves in a showdown against Virginia for the top spot in the Coastal division. There's still a ways to go for the chaos that is the ACC, but this is an important game in deciding the division. The Cavs have been struggling a bit lately and UNC QB Sam Howell is on fire! Tar Heels win it 34-28.
NC State at #23 Wake Forest- The Wolfpack travel to Wake Forest to take on the 23rd ranked Demon Deacons. I've been really impressed with Wake this year, and I want to see a breakout performance as they gear up to face the November part of their schedule, which includes road trips to VT, Clemson and Syracuse. Don't expect anything flashy, but Wake better not look ahead. Demon Deacons 33, Wolfpack 27.
Colorado at UCLA- Yes, I know both of these teams are bad, but this game still looks interesting. Both offenses have talent, but often times fall short of the potential. On the flip, both defenses are no where to be found when it matters most. UCLA is on a win streak though, and they will keep that rolling today. Bruins beat the Buffs 40-30.
BYU at Utah State- An old rivalry is renewed as the Cougars travel to Logan, UT to take on the Aggies. Neither team has been overly impressive this season, but there is a very talented QB to watch. Jordan Love of Utah State has not been as stellar as previous seasons, but the Junior should ball-out in this one. Aggies win 21-20.
Kansas State at Kansas- The in-state rivalry between the two teams in Kansas features two new head coaches with Les Miles (KU) and Chris Klieman (K-State). Both teams are coming off of big wins from a week ago, especially the Wildcats, who knocked off #5 Oklahoma at home in Manhattan. Now they travel to Lawrence and have to take on the Jayhawks and the Mad Hatter. Kansas as been playing well as of late, and their offense is clicking. Unfortunately, much like Oklahoma discovered, they won't have the ball much. Kansas State loves to hold onto the rock, and that will be the deciding factor. Wildcats beat the birds 28-21.
Thank you for reading my Week 10 Predictions and now it's time to kick back and watch some football. Enjoy your Saturday and GO BIG RED!
#CFBKnowItAll
Alex Fernando
Week 9 Prediction Results: 5-8
Overall Prediction Results: 73-38
Virginia Tech at #16 Notre Dame
The Irish were dismantled by Michigan last week, and now come home to face off against the Hokies. Virginia Tech has not been the most impressive this season, but they've put up 119 points in their last three outings combined. They're also coming off of a BYE week and were able to watch what Michigan did in their win against Notre Dame. Fortunately for Brian Kelly, the Hokies defense isn't nearly as good as Michigan's. The Wolverines held the Irish to just 180 total yards, with only 43 of those on the ground. I would expect Ian Book to be more accurate against VT as well. He was just 8 of 25 last week. Notre Dame should bounce back, and I have them winning at home 37-17.
TCU at Oklahoma State
Both the Horned Frogs and the Cowboys had important conference wins last week, but now deal with each other as November football hits the Big XII. I haven't had much success picking with either of these teams this season, so we'll see how it goes today. The Horned Frogs are led by Freshman QB Max Duggan, who's thrown 11 TDs and just 1 pick so far this season. His counterpart, Cowboys QB Spencer Sanders has struggled more, throwing 13 TDs and 10 interceptions. Luckily, he has Chuba Hubbard to hand off to in the backfield, and Hubbard oftentimes runs wild. The Sophomore leads the nation in rushing by more than 200 yards and averages 172 yards per game. He'll be a big challenge for TCU, who only gives up around 100 yards per game on the ground on average. The Frogs have been stingy on defense, and with OSU losing the Big XII's top wideout to injury this week, they have the edge. TCU wins two in a row 36-21.
Miami at Florida State
The Canes and the Noles meet again as this in-state rivalry features two teams trying to get their historic programs back on track. They've both had some nice wins over the last couple of weeks, but are still not where we're used to seeing either of these teams. FSU will look to lean heavily on their rushing attack with Cam Akers, who has 917 yards and 12 TDs on the ground this year. Miami's defense gives up just 106 yards per game on the ground. The Canes are going to need a big game from their QB, Freshman Jarren Williams, if they want to win this one on the road, but I think they can do it. I know I just made my last prediction based on a home team with a rushing attack, but now I've got the road team with good defense. Hurricanes beat the Seminoles for the third straight year in a 25-21 dogfight. This one is going to be weird ladies and gentlemen.
#9 Utah at Washington
Out West they're still battling for control of the PAC-12, and a possible playoff birth. Utah is the best shot out of the South division, but first they must travel North to take on the Huskies. Washington has been hot and cold throughout the season, but they're always tough at home. They've had a week to sit on the loss to Oregon, and you know Chris Petersen will come out firing. Utah has strong leadership on offense in QB Tyler Huntley and RB Zack Moss, but their true strength lies with the defense. The Utes give up just 10.3 points per game and a national best, 56.4 rushing yards per game on average. Opposing teams have really struggled to move the ball against the boys from Salt Lake City, so this one should be tight. Watch the ground attacks in this one, the running backs will be a big indicator on who will win this game. Washington is difficult to pick against, but I have Utah winning the South Division, and this is an important game for that. Utes win 27-23.
#8 Georgia vs. #6 Florida
The World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party sets us up with a top 10 showdown as Georgia and Florida square off in Jacksonville. This game could also be named SEC East Division Championship, as the winner of this will likely go onto the SEC Championship. Both teams are pretty evenly matched on the stat sheet, so this is not an easy game to predict. Both defenses are tough, but in different ways. Florida loves to pressure the quarterback, recording 29 sacks so far this season. Georgia on the other hand locks down the run game, giving up just 85 yards per game on the ground on average. Each offense has playmakers who need the ball in their hands as much as possible, but the primary factor for victory in this one comes down to the QB play. Jake Fromm hasn't been stellar so far this season, throwing just 9 TDs compared to 3 picks. He's still completing 70% of his passes, and all 3 interceptions came in their loss to South Carolina. On the other side, Kyle Trask has taken over for Felipe Franks, and has been tremendous. Trask has thrown for nearly 1,400 yards thus far, with 14 TDs and just 4 picks. He's completing 67% of his passes so far this season and really commanding the offense well, helping them score 32.5 points per game. Originally I had Georgia winning the division, but Florida could take it with "one slip". Well here's the slip folks, Gators win it in Jacksonville 30-21. CHOMP CHOMP!
#7 Oregon at USC
If it's not one rivalry, it's the other. Oregon survived their last couple games against the dangerous teams from the Evergreen State (Washington & Washington State), but now have to travel down to Los Angeles to face the always dangerous Trojans. USC staged a late 4th quarter comeback to beat Colorado on the road last week, and Kedon Slovis is playing some good football for a freshman tossed out into the QB position. Slovis has thrown for 1,625 yards with 13 TDs and 5 picks. His opponent though, is an expert. Justin Herbert's stat line is tremendous this season, 2,104 yards, 21 TDs, 1 interception and 65% completion rating. He's likely to give the Trojan defense issues today, and the Ducks defense is looking to cause issues of their own. They're ranked 20th in total defense, giving up just over 300 yards on average and 14.8 points per game. The Coliseum is never an easy place to win, but I think the Ducks are pushing for that playoff bid, and there's not room for error now. Oregon 34, USC 26.
#15 SMU at #24 Memphis
College Gameday is in Memphis for this game and I couldn't be happier! The Mustangs and the Tigers are fighting for more than just a simple victory in this one. Winner has the inside track to winning the American Athletic Conference West division, and possibly a New Year's Six Bowl Bid. The Tigers only blemish on the season is a two-point loss on the road at Temple, but have been stellar otherwise, averaging just under 40 points per game. They're led by a powerful ground attack from Redshirt Freshman RB, Kenneth Gainwell. The young buck has nearly 1,000 yards so far this season, with 11 TDs and a staggering 7.1 yards per carry. SMU can move the ball as well however, averaging 504 yards and 43 points per game. I would expect a barn burner in this one, and it's going to be fun to watch! Shane Buechele has been unstoppable this year, throwing for more than 2,300 yards with 20 TDs and 7 picks. I'm riding with the Mustangs this season, and this is a big game to prove they're the best G5 team around. SMU wins a wild one on the road 48-44.
Nebraska at Purdue
The Huskers travel to West Lafayette today, and I had originally pegged this game as a loss for Nebraska. This was before seeing Purdue struggle with injuries all season, but it's still not a safe place to play, especially in November. The Boilermakers are led at QB by Freshman Jack Plummer, who has nearly 1,400 yards with 9 TDs and 6 interceptions. He's only completing 58.5% of his passes, but I'm sure the Husker defense will help boost that number after today. Ugh, I just don't know with these Huskers. Martinez should be back in the lineup, but the offense hasn't been stellar with him under center. There's no rushing threat from Nebraska, so I would expect a heavy dose of Wandale Robinson. I would like to see the Huskers attack downfield more, as Purdue is giving up nearly 250 yards per game through the air. JD Spielman and Wandale Robinson need the ball as much as possible, and Nebraska needs to start taking some shots. Opponents have been loading the box to counter the non-productive rushing attack, and there are big play opportunities against the secondary. I'm never sure what to expect, and Purdue is more than capable of winning this game. However, Nebraska needs this win to move closer toward bowl eligibility, so I'm picking the Huskers!
Nebraska 23, Purdue 21. BOILER DOWN!
Now for some quick hit predictions on other interesting games around the nation:
Virginia at North Carolina- The Fightin' Mack Browns are battling in the ACC and find themselves in a showdown against Virginia for the top spot in the Coastal division. There's still a ways to go for the chaos that is the ACC, but this is an important game in deciding the division. The Cavs have been struggling a bit lately and UNC QB Sam Howell is on fire! Tar Heels win it 34-28.
NC State at #23 Wake Forest- The Wolfpack travel to Wake Forest to take on the 23rd ranked Demon Deacons. I've been really impressed with Wake this year, and I want to see a breakout performance as they gear up to face the November part of their schedule, which includes road trips to VT, Clemson and Syracuse. Don't expect anything flashy, but Wake better not look ahead. Demon Deacons 33, Wolfpack 27.
Colorado at UCLA- Yes, I know both of these teams are bad, but this game still looks interesting. Both offenses have talent, but often times fall short of the potential. On the flip, both defenses are no where to be found when it matters most. UCLA is on a win streak though, and they will keep that rolling today. Bruins beat the Buffs 40-30.
BYU at Utah State- An old rivalry is renewed as the Cougars travel to Logan, UT to take on the Aggies. Neither team has been overly impressive this season, but there is a very talented QB to watch. Jordan Love of Utah State has not been as stellar as previous seasons, but the Junior should ball-out in this one. Aggies win 21-20.
Kansas State at Kansas- The in-state rivalry between the two teams in Kansas features two new head coaches with Les Miles (KU) and Chris Klieman (K-State). Both teams are coming off of big wins from a week ago, especially the Wildcats, who knocked off #5 Oklahoma at home in Manhattan. Now they travel to Lawrence and have to take on the Jayhawks and the Mad Hatter. Kansas as been playing well as of late, and their offense is clicking. Unfortunately, much like Oklahoma discovered, they won't have the ball much. Kansas State loves to hold onto the rock, and that will be the deciding factor. Wildcats beat the birds 28-21.
Thank you for reading my Week 10 Predictions and now it's time to kick back and watch some football. Enjoy your Saturday and GO BIG RED!
#CFBKnowItAll
Alex Fernando
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