Some could event call this a BIG 10 battle as Washington is set to join Michigan in the BIG 10 next season. For now, they are in the PAC-12 and own a 14-0 record along with their conference championship. The Huskies have made a habit of pulling victory out of the flames as they've won 8 games within one score of their opponent. Michigan has looked more dominant throughout the season, but have certainly been challenged more in the last couple months. None more than their overtime semi-final match against the Crimson Tide of Alabama. This squad returned the most production of any team last season for one primary reason, finish the job and win a national title. The Huskies are used to the underdog title, and have been proving doubters wrong all season. Michigan owns the all time series record at 8-5, but the Huskies took the 1992 Title after a 20-point victory in the Rose Bowl. I've got the full break down of the big game below along with my keys for each team to focus on if they want to be crowned champion. Read on for my predictions and enjoy the last day of College Football until next season!
Bowl Record: 24 - 18
College Football Playoff National Championship
#1 Michigan vs #2 Washington
The Wolverines are one step away from finishing the job after falling short in the semi-finals both of the last two seasons. They conquered Alabama in the Rose Bowl and despite all the drama and distractions this season, have been unwavering week in and week out. They come into the game with the top ranked defense, giving up just 243 yards and 10.2 points per game. In one of their most impressive games of the season, they held the Tide to just 288 total yards and Jalen Milroe to 116 yards passing. Washington's air raid attack is a bit more potent than Bama's, and Michael Penix Jr. is a different type of QB than Jalen Milroe. Penix was phenomenal in the semi-final versus Texas, throwing for 430 yards with 2 touchdowns. His incredible precision on deep passes has ripped defensive secondaries all season long as he leads the nation with 73 passes of 20+ yards and has another 35 passes of 30+ yards. With arguably one of the most talented receiver corps in the past few years as his arsenal, Michigan's defense will be challenged in a way they haven't seen yet this season. Offensively for the Wolverines, they'll ground and pound as usual, setting up the play-action for JJ McCarthy to pick apart the mid to deep zones of the Washington secondary. This will be a fantastic battle to watch how these QBs handle the pressure dialed up by the defensive coordinators.
Michigan Keys to Victory:
1. Find a way to get Michael Penix Jr. on the ground.
- Michigan has a lot of unique blitz packages and a defensive front that averages nearly 3 sacks per game. However, the Washington O-Line is the best in the country when it comes to keeping their QB clean as they've given up just 11 sacks throughout 14 games. Penix deserves a lot of credit for his vision and ability to climb and move in the pocket while keeping his eyes downfield, but putting pressure on him is the only way to slow down this passing attack.
2. Hold the Huskies on 3rd down.
- Washington ranks 14th and converts nearly 47% of their 3rd downs. Against Texas they were just 3/11 and 6 of those missed conversions came in the second half. Washington has a habit of taking their foot off the gas when they have a lead, so forcing them out of system gives Michigan the best chance to win, even if they get down early.
3. Mixed rushing attack.
- The Huskies gave up 180 yards on the ground to Texas and 3 different players for the Longhorns averaged more than 6.5 yards per carry. The Huskies rank 43rd in rush defense, so there's opportunity there for the Wolverines, especially with Blake Corum leading the way. Gash them early and keep that run game pressure on later in the game. Make Washington win this game on defense by having to stop the run game.
Washington Keys to Victory:
1. Get Dillon Johnson space to work.
- Johnson is good to go for tonight despite suffering a late game injury in the semi-final against Texas. He's been the bell-cow for the Huskies' offense, averaging 5.2 yards per carry and racking up 16 TDs on the ground this season. In order to keep Michigan's defense honest against the run game, he needs to have early success. This is on the o-line. They're great at protection but tonight is more about moving bodies off that line of scrimmage to give Johnson some space to work.
2. Feed your players with space.
- Having watched this receiver corps over the course of the season, they are not only talented athletes, but hardcore students of the game. Washington's wideouts have been the best group all season because they play smart. They create an incredible amount of space from defenders with quick footwork at the top of their routes, they run 2-3 yards past the sticks on third down to ensure they've got the spot when they come back to catch the ball and they use their bodies to shield the defender away from the ball, resulting in an easy catch where they (and the ball are protected) or a pass interference call because the defense has to go through them. Penix always does a fabulous job of finding the open lanes to throw to, but his precision will be tested tonight more than ever. Look for these receivers to make big plays with the little things like I mentioned.
3. Force Turnovers. Pedal to the metal.
- This is a game that needs the Washington defense to play out of their minds. They did a phenomenal job early on of shutting down Texas, but got complacent with a two-score lead and slacked off. Credit to Texas for taking shots later in the game, but the Huskies should not have let that game get as close as it did. Michigan's offense (while dominant) is predictable due to their play-action focused nature. The defense needs to stay disciplined to their assignments and be aggressive with their blitzes and breaks on the ball against receivers. Force turnovers and keep Michael Penix Jr. on the field as much as possible to keep him in rhythm. There's no downside to running up the score here. Don't get settled and be aggressive.
Overall, this was certainly one of the toughest predictions of the season. Michigan pushed Alabama around far more than expected and their secondary play was very tight. Defense is certainly known to win Championships, but in modern college football you need points (I'm ignoring Iowa for obvious reasons). Watching Michael Penix Jr. shred the Longhorn defense and how his receivers create space everywhere on the field along with their perimeter and downfield blocking was amazing. This is one of the more deadly offensive attacks we've seen in the last couple years and I think the Huskies get the job done. Michael Penix Jr. lights it up again and Washington wins the 2024 CFP National Championship 31-28. GO DUBS!
Thank you for reading all my College Football Predictions and notes this season. Your questions, comments and support are all greatly appreciated. Enjoy the game!
#CFBKnowItAll
Alex Fernando
