Hey everyone, we've got a big weekend of College Football coming up, so I hope you're ready to watch all the big games! A couple of unbeaten teams have some tough road games this Saturday, including my Huskers. So let's get to my game picks, enjoy!
#10 West Virginia at Oklahoma State
The Big XII is starting to shake out and both of these teams look to stay alive in the Conference Title race. The Cowboys are coming off 3 straight conference wins, but 2 of those were against Kansas and Iowa State, so it's hard to peg them as one of the top contenders in the conference. West Virginia has been very impressive this season, especially since their last two games have been against two of the highest scoring teams in the nation, and they gave up a combined 27 points between them. The Mountaineers defense has been very impressive this season, and the past couple weeks were the perfect examples. They held Texas Tech (a team that had previously scored 50+ in 9 straight games at home) to 17, and stuffed the Horned Frogs to just 10 points last week. On the other side of the ball, Skylar Howard is completing 66.5% of his passes and has not thrown a pick in his past two games. OSU will have their hands full since they give up nearly 450 yards per game and over 27 points per game. This has some upset possibility being in Stillwater, but I think the Mountaineers will take care of business in this one. West Virginia 34, Oklahoma State 20.
#2 Michigan at Michigan State (Battle for the Paul Bunyan Trophy)
The "Big Brother-Little Brother" fight doesn't have quite as much hype behind it as last year's thriller, but never underestimate the atmosphere of a rivalry game, especially an in-state one! Michigan has impressed everyone in football this year with crushing of nearly everyone on their schedule. Michigan State has puzzled everyone in football this year with their 5 straight losses and 0-4 record in BIG 10 play. Nonetheless, this game always has potential to be a classic. The Wolverines are looking to keep their undefeated season alive while Michigan State just wants a chance to go bowling this year. All the numbers point to Michigan steamrolling their rivals, but rivalries can be interesting. The Spartans have won 7 of the last 8 meetings, and getting to play at home this year could help them out a bit. With all that being said I'm going with the Wolverines. Michigan's defense is far too strong for this years Spartan team to cause any major headaches, and Michigan State has already given up 54 at home to Northwestern, so they may be in for a rough day. The Wolverines' run game will control the line of scrimmage, and I would expect a couple turnovers from the defense. Michigan crushes the "little brother" 42-16.
#14 Florida vs. Georgia
A big rivalry in the SEC East Division takes place in Jacksonville today, between the Gators and the Dawgs. Florida has looked impressive so far this season, only losing to Tennessee, but they also haven't played the heaviest of competition thus far. Their defense has impressive numbers, giving up only 252 yards and 12 points on average per game. Georgia has had a very difficult time moving the ball this season, and only scores an average of 25 points per game. Jacob Eason has been improving throughout the year, but the Gators' top notch secondary is the last thing he needs to help his confidence. I would expect Georgia to try and establish the run game early on, but if they fall behind, they'll have to try airing it out. Once that happens, I think the Gators' defense takes over the game and brings home the W. Florida wins this rivalry match-up 31-26.
#8 Baylor at Texas
This is an interesting rivalry in the Big XII because Baylor starts to play some of the stronger teams in the conference, and Texas is looking to get back on track after losing 4 of their last 5 games. This is my upset pick of the week. I'm going to go with Texas (I really hate saying that) because I think Baylor is weaker than what they have shown. Yes, they're 6-0, but their toughest game has been Oklahoma State at home, and their defense has struggled all year. The same can be said for Texas, but let's be honest, no one (apart from WVU thus far) has defense in the Big XII. I expect a shootout in this one, but Charlie Strong gets his statement win and knocks off Baylor. The Bears are capable of beating Texas in Austin, but I don't think they'll be ready for this game. Longhorns 44, Bears 38.
Northwestern at #6 Ohio State
The second of the three major BIG 10 games this weekend takes place in Columbus, OH. Just a week removed from Penn State's epic upset on the Buckeyes, they return home and are probably looking for blood against the surging Wildcats. Ohio State is favored to win by 27 points right now, and I'm sure Urban will have them playing better than last week. Don't sleep on Northwestern though. They've risen to second place in the BIG 10 West division and have won their last three games, two of which were on the road in Iowa City and East Lansing. Pat Fitzgerald is one of my favorite coaches, and he's always going to give the Wildcats a chance to win. My key in this game is Northwestern QB, Clayton Thorson. We all know JT Barrett is going to score at some point, so the big question is if Thorson will score too. Thorson's leadership has been the focal point of their win streak, and if he can continue to move the ball on offense and keep pace with Ohio State's scoring, Northwestern could hang around. As fun as this upset would be, I don't think it will happen in the Horseshoe, but watch out for next year in Evanston, you never know! Look for Northwestern's defense to imitate a lot of blitzes that Penn State used last week. The Nittany Lions got 6 sacks on the Buckeye who had only given up 5 all season going into that game. I'm going with the Buckeyes because I think their defense will be too overpowering on the Wildcats, but the 27 point spread is too much. Northwestern cuts into that, making it a closer game. Buckeyes 38, Wildcats 21.
#4 Washington at #17 Utah
Gameday traveled to Salt Lake City for the big showdown in the Pac-12. The Huskies have been one of the bigger surprises this season, but it's worth noting that some of the normal powerhouse teams of the conference have struggled this year (Oregon 2-5, Stanford 2-3). However, Washington has been dominating their opponents in every facet of the game, so look for a good one tonight. Utah is tough to play at home, losing only 1 home game over the past two seasons. Their run game has picked back up over the past two weeks as Senior RB Joe Williams has run for 511 yards and 5 TDs in their last two games. Washington only gives up an average of 145 yards on the ground per game, while Utah averages 215. Clock management will be key for the Utes if they want to win, so establishing their rushing attack and keeping the ball away from Jake Browning should be the main focus. Washington's defense has been one of the best in the nation, only giving up 14.6 points per game, while their offense scores 48.3. The spread on this game is the Huskies by 11, but I'm not sure if Utah will hang around quite that long. Junior QB Troy Williams for the Utes is only completing 56% of his passes and has thrown 5 picks and been sacked 14 times this year already. Washington's defense will be coming after him today, and if he turns the ball over, the Huskies will start to run away with it. I expect this one to be fairly close, but Washington pulls away in the end. Huskies 38, Utes 21.
#3 Clemson at #12 Florida State
The big game in the ACC this week takes place down in Tallahassee, FL. The Tigers take on the Seminoles in a game that usually decides the who places in the ACC Championship. This year, FSU is a couple games back, but would love nothing more than to ruin Clemson's season and get back into some big bowl consideration. Clemson's defense has been a steady strength this year, stepping up at big parts of the game and holding strong. Their offense however has had issues. They've turned the ball over quite a bit this season, and have made a lot of games very close. The Tigers have still come out on top, but you can only look over the edge of a cliff so many times before falling off. Florida State looks to help Clemson out with a little push on their way to an upset. They have found a balance on offense over the past couple weeks averaging 271 through the air and 213 on the ground. Both teams score around 35 points per game and have a number of play makers on offense. FSU's defense will be the key factor in this game, because Deshaun Watson could have his own highlight reel in this one. Apart from their blowout loss to Louisville early in the year, the Seminoles have kept every game close, and I think the 4 point spread is fairly accurate. Clemson loses at some point this season, but not today. The Tigers defense is too much for young Deondre Francois and they come away with the victory. Look for FSU RB Dalvin Cook to have a lot of touches, but not a lot of yards. I think he'll be running into a wall for most of the game. Tigers win it 30-24.
#7 Nebraska at #11 Wisconsin (Battle for the Freedom Trophy)
The final BIG 10 showdown of the day takes place up in Mad-town as the Huskers face off with the rival Badgers. Nebraska has not gotten much love from the media for their undefeated season thus far, but this is the statement game they were looking for. A road game to one of the toughest venues in the nation against one of the better teams in the nation could open some eyes. Everyone is expecting Wisconsin to win and use their dominant defense to shut down a dynamic offense that usually shuts itself down for a few quarters. The over/under is 43 points, which is really puzzling to me because this is going to be a close, low scoring game. Starting with Wisconsin, their offense only scores 24 points per game on average, and their defense only gives up 14. Nebraska scores an average of 34 and holds teams to an average of 17. If the defenses play like they have been, neither team will go over 30 points. Wisconsin's ground game will be something to watch as it has been picking up over the past couple games with Corey Clement. They average 173 yards on the ground per game, but the Blackshirts only give up 124 yards rushing per game. Look for Wisconsin to use their jet sweep motion quite a bit, because that usually causes Nebraska problems. The Linebackers and secondary will have to be ready to hold the edge.
For the Huskers the big key to victory is again Senior QB Tommy Armstrong. However, my second key of the day is the O-line for Nebraska. We'll get to Tommy in a minute, but the offensive line may be one of the biggest factors in this game. Wisconsin's front seven is one of the most intimidating in the nation. They are consistently reeking havoc on opposing backfields and QBs. Nebraska's O-line has been banged up this year and has not been able to move opposing defenses until the 4th Quarter. Not the worst thing, but when you can't move the ball during the 2nd and 3rd quarters, that opens the door for a lot of teams. The "Pipeline" will have to play very well and protect Tommy if the Huskers want to win this game. Switching over to Tommy, we need the good one. This is his chance to prove that he's the leader this team is centered around, and he will have to be nearly perfect to do so. With the strength of the Badgers' defense, he may not have much of a ground game to rely on every series, so his arm will be a factor. If Nebraska can keep 3rd down manageable and not force deep throws from Armstrong, they will be able to move the ball and keep Wisconsin on their toes. Look for his scrambling to be used a lot today, as I expect a lot of pressure from different blitz packages. The best thing about playing Wisconsin is that you do not need to score many points to win. It's very very difficult to score those points, but if Nebraska is able to score just 3 times (at least 2 TDs) then they will win. Wisconsin has trouble moving the ball and the Blackshirts have one of the better (not talked about) defenses in the nation. They hold teams to only 17 points per game, and have 13 interceptions on the year. Badger QB Alex Hornibrook will have his hands full with my man Freedom coming after him and #LockDownU looking for more picks. I believe in my Huskers, and I think Tommy plays well enough for them to win. Huskers take this game 21-16.
I hope you all enjoyed my picks and GO BIG RED! Have a great Saturday of Football.
#CollegeFootballKnowItAll
Alex Fernando
Saturday, October 29, 2016
Tuesday, October 25, 2016
Week 8 Reflection
Well once again, it wasn't very pretty, but Nebraska got the W and moved to 7-0 on the season. This post will focus on my reflections on the Purdue game, and what issues need to be worked on this week headed into the showdown with Wisconsin. Feel free to comment or open any discussions about this game or anything else going on in football! We had a great weekend of upsets and big games, so there's always a lot to talk about. Enjoy!
It seems to be the same story every week; start off hot, offense disappears for the 2nd and 3rd quarters and then they come alive and finish with a dominating 4th quarter. However, as I mentioned before, the Huskers keep winning, and in the end, that's the main goal. It gets frustrating at times, especially when you watch the offensive line get knocked 2-3 yards into the backfield on every play, and you realize the Huskers only manage 157 yards rushing on the worst run defense in the conference. Purdue played very well, especially for a team that just lost their head coach, but with the amount of talent and experience on Nebraska's offense, they should not struggle as much as they did with the Boilermakers. Tommy played fairly well, didn't have much room to run, but still managed 51 yards. His interception before halftime was another one of his terrible decisions to just throw the ball over the middle, but he was much better in the second half. If Tommy can keep the mistakes to a minimum, Nebraska should be able to keep winning. However, it's pretty obvious that the injuries are causing a majority of the issues up front. It was clear that Gates' ankle was still bothering him, and I was surprised that he played to be honest. I saw Farmer limping in the 1st quarter of the game and David Knevel didn't last very long. I appreciate and applaud the toughness of these guys, but if you're not healthy, it's not going to be beneficial to have you out there limping and getting pushed around because you can't plant your foot down and drive. Our offensive struggles stem from the lack of protection and push from the O-line. There was no running room up the middle throughout the entire game, and Tommy was constantly under pressure in the pocket. This is probably my biggest concern moving forward, because Wisconsin and Ohio State both have relentless pass rushers, and they cause a lot of havoc on early downs, putting their opponents behind the chains. Nebraska has been consistently behind the chains during the 2nd and 3rd quarters, not only because of the lack of execution, but partly because of the play calling in my opinion. Langsdorf has improved quite a bit from last season in using his talent and exploiting weaknesses in opposing defenses, but there are still stretches where they play calling just makes you scratch your head. Like how he refused to run towards the outside when his offensive line was pushed back into the backfield on every run play up the middle. I've been very excited with how he sticks with the game plan and sets up some of the bigger plays for later in the game, but I really think that some extra creativity earlier on in the game will help open more things up. Plus it could give our play makers more room to work away from the offensive line disaster. Again, I understand the injury issues, but if so many are still playing while hurt, then what happened to their backups? Why are they not good enough to play over someone who is injured, or at least give them a break? The offensive line and play calling are my two big concerns for the offense moving forward.
Defensively, once again, apart from just a couple of big plays, the Blackshirts were very impressive. Purdue would move the ball on occasion, and that was expected with their BIG 10 leading passing attack, but overall, they were not able to find any rhythm. The defensive line caused lots of pressure on David Blough, and although the secondary gave up 309 yards, they still came away with 2 Interceptions. As I stated before, only a couple big plays are the reason Purdue had any points at all. If the defense can keep Nebraska in these close games and shut down opposing teams in the second half like they have been, this could be an interesting season. Another big stat to consider is that Nebraska held Purdue to only 24 yards rushing, and 6/16 on 3rd downs. I expect our next couple games to be tight defensive battles, making the offenses really work for the victory. The Blackshirts are looking great this year, and there are not many leaving after 2016!! Let's keep it rolling Huskers, GO BIG RED!
#CollegeFootballKnowItAll
Alex Fernando
It seems to be the same story every week; start off hot, offense disappears for the 2nd and 3rd quarters and then they come alive and finish with a dominating 4th quarter. However, as I mentioned before, the Huskers keep winning, and in the end, that's the main goal. It gets frustrating at times, especially when you watch the offensive line get knocked 2-3 yards into the backfield on every play, and you realize the Huskers only manage 157 yards rushing on the worst run defense in the conference. Purdue played very well, especially for a team that just lost their head coach, but with the amount of talent and experience on Nebraska's offense, they should not struggle as much as they did with the Boilermakers. Tommy played fairly well, didn't have much room to run, but still managed 51 yards. His interception before halftime was another one of his terrible decisions to just throw the ball over the middle, but he was much better in the second half. If Tommy can keep the mistakes to a minimum, Nebraska should be able to keep winning. However, it's pretty obvious that the injuries are causing a majority of the issues up front. It was clear that Gates' ankle was still bothering him, and I was surprised that he played to be honest. I saw Farmer limping in the 1st quarter of the game and David Knevel didn't last very long. I appreciate and applaud the toughness of these guys, but if you're not healthy, it's not going to be beneficial to have you out there limping and getting pushed around because you can't plant your foot down and drive. Our offensive struggles stem from the lack of protection and push from the O-line. There was no running room up the middle throughout the entire game, and Tommy was constantly under pressure in the pocket. This is probably my biggest concern moving forward, because Wisconsin and Ohio State both have relentless pass rushers, and they cause a lot of havoc on early downs, putting their opponents behind the chains. Nebraska has been consistently behind the chains during the 2nd and 3rd quarters, not only because of the lack of execution, but partly because of the play calling in my opinion. Langsdorf has improved quite a bit from last season in using his talent and exploiting weaknesses in opposing defenses, but there are still stretches where they play calling just makes you scratch your head. Like how he refused to run towards the outside when his offensive line was pushed back into the backfield on every run play up the middle. I've been very excited with how he sticks with the game plan and sets up some of the bigger plays for later in the game, but I really think that some extra creativity earlier on in the game will help open more things up. Plus it could give our play makers more room to work away from the offensive line disaster. Again, I understand the injury issues, but if so many are still playing while hurt, then what happened to their backups? Why are they not good enough to play over someone who is injured, or at least give them a break? The offensive line and play calling are my two big concerns for the offense moving forward.
Defensively, once again, apart from just a couple of big plays, the Blackshirts were very impressive. Purdue would move the ball on occasion, and that was expected with their BIG 10 leading passing attack, but overall, they were not able to find any rhythm. The defensive line caused lots of pressure on David Blough, and although the secondary gave up 309 yards, they still came away with 2 Interceptions. As I stated before, only a couple big plays are the reason Purdue had any points at all. If the defense can keep Nebraska in these close games and shut down opposing teams in the second half like they have been, this could be an interesting season. Another big stat to consider is that Nebraska held Purdue to only 24 yards rushing, and 6/16 on 3rd downs. I expect our next couple games to be tight defensive battles, making the offenses really work for the victory. The Blackshirts are looking great this year, and there are not many leaving after 2016!! Let's keep it rolling Huskers, GO BIG RED!
#CollegeFootballKnowItAll
Alex Fernando
Saturday, October 22, 2016
Week 8 Predictions
I hope everyone has had a great week and you're all ready for another great weekend of football! We've got a few key match-ups, so I'll get right to my game predictions, enjoy!
Indiana at Northwestern
This doesn't really seem like a highlight game, but I think it will be an interesting one to watch. The Hoosiers are coming off two tough losses to Ohio State and Nebraska, so they will be looking to get back on track as the head to Evanston. The Wildcats are on the other side of the spectrum, as they have won two straight over Iowa and Michigan State (Division champs from a year ago). In the process of those victories, they have scored 92 combined points, after only scoring a combined 65 in their first four games. This new offensive explosion is lead by QB Clayton Thorson. He has been spreading the ball around very well, passing for over 1400 yards so far this season, and that has opened up the run game for star RB Justin Jackson. Jackson has nearly 700 yards rushing and 6 TDs so far this year, and his last two games have accounted for 359 of those yards and 3 of the TDs. Their offense will be tested this weekend though, because Indiana has arguably the most improved defense in the BIG 10. The slowed down two of the best offenses in the conference over the past couple weeks, and although they couldn't quite pull out the victory, they are keeping the Hoosiers in games. When you stick around in enough games, you'll start to win a few. Offensively, the Hoosiers should be able to move the ball fairly well. The Wildcats have some play makers, most notably Anthony Walker Jr., but they give up an average of 416 yards per game. I honestly expect a bit of a shoot out in this game, but if Indiana's defense makes a few stops or gets a couple of turnovers, they could finally get back on the winning track. With that being said, I'm going to stick with the Wildcats. Pat Fitzgerald has this team playing with a lot of confidence, and I'm not sure if their offense can be stopped right now with all the different weapons! Northwestern wins in a close one, 38-35.
#10 Wisconsin at Iowa (Battle for the Heartland Trophy)
These two rivals meet yet again, and will battle it out for a brass Bull. This rivalry is very tough to win in, proven by the 44-43-2 series record that Wisconsin leads. Iowa has not looked the best this season, playing tight games to some mediocre competition, and let's not forget the loss they suffered at the hands of the Bison from NDSU! However, they have been better over recent weeks, and have tried to get their running game started up again. Sadly for them, they have to play the Badgers now, and Wisconsin only gives up 106 yards rushing a game.... Plus they just lost a very close overtime game to the Buckeyes at home last week, so I doubt they are happy. The Badgers' defense has easily been one of the most impressive all season long, and I expect another big performance in Iowa City. Iowa's biggest advantage is playing at home (where NDSU won, that never gets old!) and the fact that Wisconsin's QB, Alex Hornibrook, is only a redshirt Freshman. He looked pretty good at home last week, even against the tough Buckeye defense, but his start previous to that was in the Big House, and he did not play well. Against the Wolverines, Hornibrook went 9-25 for 88 yards, 1 TD and 3 INTs. To be fair, the entire offense struggled against the stiff Wolverine defense, but an away crowd in Kinnick Stadium will be tough for the young QB. Look for Wisconsin to focus on their ground game, especially since RB Corey Clement ran for 164 yards against Ohio State last Saturday. Iowa's defense has been fairly tough throughout the year, and only give up an average of 150 on the ground, but Wisconsin is a much tougher opponent. I think the Badgers will show why they're still in the top 10, despite their two recent losses, and get the victory in Iowa City. Look for Hornibrook to struggle early, if he doesn't fix the issues early, Iowa could hang around. I'll take the Badgers 28-13.
Colorado at Stanford
The Cardinal are coming off a very lack-luster victory against the Irish last week, and are really hoping to get Christian McCaffrey back. McCaffrey may be their only chance to compete with Colorado, because I'm not sure if they battered Cardinal defense can keep up with the Buffs. Colorado averages 515 yards per game on offense, and Stanford gives up an average of 370. They've struggled to stop other high-powered offenses already this season, which has lead to blowout losses like 44-6 against Washington and 42-16 against Wazzu. The Buffaloes have a really good chance to win the South division this year, but will need to get by David Shaw first. It's never easy to win in Palo Alto, especially if McCaffrey comes back this week. However, with the offensive attack the Buffs are bringing in, I'm just not sure if Stanford can stop them. It hurts to say this, but I'll take Colorado over Stanford, 37-20.
TCU at #12 West Virginia
The Mountaineers really surprised me last week, holding the high-flying Red Raiders to just 17 points on their own turf. They remained unbeaten, and return home to Morgantown to take on the Horned Frogs. This looks to be another classic shootout in the Big XII, but after last weeks performance, I think the Mountaineers might have one of the tougher defenses in the conference. Texas Tech had scored 50+ points in 9 straight games at home coming into last week, but were held to only 17 points and an astonishing 379 total yards (they average over 500 in just passing alone per game). TCU has not looked the most impressive all season, but they are never a team to discount. Kenny Hill is completing over 63% of his passes, but has a 12:8 TD to INT ratio. West Virginia hasn't been the best at creating turnovers, but look for them to get some pressure on Hill today. I'm taking the Mountaineers in another impressive game, 40-23.
#6 Texas A&M at #1 Alabama
The Aggies have been one of the few teams to cause Alabama headaches over the past few seasons, so this is always an intriguing match-up. We all know what Bama is going to bring to the table, so let's focus on the Aggies and see where their strengths lie. Texas A&M has played very well throughout the year, mostly because of QB Trevor Knight. He may only have a 53.5% completion rating, but his 510 rushing yards and 9 TDs on the ground make him very difficult to stop. Knight has been a master at keeping both plays and drives alive with his legs. Alabama has had issues with dual threat QBs in the past, but handled Joshua Dobbs well last week. Look for Trevor Knight to be the focal point of this game. If he can keep drives alive and keep the ball away from Bama's deadly offense, A&M could pull the upset. I think the Tide's defense will be to much in the end, and they will continue to roll. I wouldn't be opposed to the upset, but I'm sticking with Bama 38-28.
#17 Arkansas at #21 Auburn
This will be a fun game to watch down in the SEC because Arkansas is coming off of a big win against Ole Miss, and Auburn's offense is looking to continue improving after their BYE week. These two teams both score a little over 30 points per game, so I expect this one to be fairly close. There should be a fair amount of offense in this game because both defenses give up a large amount of yards, and both offenses average 445 (Arkansas) and 480 (Auburn) for yards per game. QB play will be huge in this game, especially with the Hogs being on the road. Austin Allen looked very impressive last week, and I expect him to lead the upset against the Tigers. Razorbacks 34, Tigers 30.
Purdue at #8 Nebraska
The Huskers return to Lincoln to take on the Boilermakers, and since losing to Purdue last season, Nebraska is 10-1. The Huskers are looking for revenge, and even though they are beaten up still, expect a fired up team. Nebraska needs to find its ground game again, especially with Purdue giving up 365 yards rushing a week ago to Iowa. Expect Newby to continue to carry the work load, but I expect Ozigbo to be back and all of our running backs to be used in this one. The offensive line has some question marks with all the injuries, but they will need to step up and gain some confidence in this game before traveling to Madison next week. They looked very poor against the Hoosiers last week, so look for them to be a focal point of the game. Another big focal point will be penalties. Nebraska had a number of dumb penalties last week, and I know that was a big issue on Coach Riley's list to fix this week. Defensively, Purdue QB David Blough will be the focus. Last year, Blough ran for 82 yards and 1 TD on the Blackshirts, and passed for 274 and 4 TDs. Based on the improvement in the secondary this year, I expect Purdue's passing game to be contained fairly well, but we cannot let David Blough run. Much like Clayton Thorson of Northwestern, he's a tricky QB for Nebraska to tackle, and often keeps plays and drives alive with his feet. Look for a lot of blitz packages to cause pressure and keep Blough away from scrambling.
Overall, I really don't think Purdue should cause Nebraska too many issues this year. The Huskers know not to overlook them, and they're dealing with the firing of their head coach while coming to the most intimidating place to play in the Conference, arguably the nation. I think Nebraska bounces back and hopefully gets Ryker some playing time late in the game to make amends for last season. Nebraska wins 45-14.
Some other big games to watch are Ohio State at Penn State (not a big upset possibility, but I think Penn State hangs around early, look for Saquon Barkley to have a big night), Oklahoma at Texas Tech, and Ole Miss at LSU. Thanks for reading and GO BIG RED!
#CollegeFootballKnowItAll
Alex Fernando
Indiana at Northwestern
This doesn't really seem like a highlight game, but I think it will be an interesting one to watch. The Hoosiers are coming off two tough losses to Ohio State and Nebraska, so they will be looking to get back on track as the head to Evanston. The Wildcats are on the other side of the spectrum, as they have won two straight over Iowa and Michigan State (Division champs from a year ago). In the process of those victories, they have scored 92 combined points, after only scoring a combined 65 in their first four games. This new offensive explosion is lead by QB Clayton Thorson. He has been spreading the ball around very well, passing for over 1400 yards so far this season, and that has opened up the run game for star RB Justin Jackson. Jackson has nearly 700 yards rushing and 6 TDs so far this year, and his last two games have accounted for 359 of those yards and 3 of the TDs. Their offense will be tested this weekend though, because Indiana has arguably the most improved defense in the BIG 10. The slowed down two of the best offenses in the conference over the past couple weeks, and although they couldn't quite pull out the victory, they are keeping the Hoosiers in games. When you stick around in enough games, you'll start to win a few. Offensively, the Hoosiers should be able to move the ball fairly well. The Wildcats have some play makers, most notably Anthony Walker Jr., but they give up an average of 416 yards per game. I honestly expect a bit of a shoot out in this game, but if Indiana's defense makes a few stops or gets a couple of turnovers, they could finally get back on the winning track. With that being said, I'm going to stick with the Wildcats. Pat Fitzgerald has this team playing with a lot of confidence, and I'm not sure if their offense can be stopped right now with all the different weapons! Northwestern wins in a close one, 38-35.
#10 Wisconsin at Iowa (Battle for the Heartland Trophy)
These two rivals meet yet again, and will battle it out for a brass Bull. This rivalry is very tough to win in, proven by the 44-43-2 series record that Wisconsin leads. Iowa has not looked the best this season, playing tight games to some mediocre competition, and let's not forget the loss they suffered at the hands of the Bison from NDSU! However, they have been better over recent weeks, and have tried to get their running game started up again. Sadly for them, they have to play the Badgers now, and Wisconsin only gives up 106 yards rushing a game.... Plus they just lost a very close overtime game to the Buckeyes at home last week, so I doubt they are happy. The Badgers' defense has easily been one of the most impressive all season long, and I expect another big performance in Iowa City. Iowa's biggest advantage is playing at home (where NDSU won, that never gets old!) and the fact that Wisconsin's QB, Alex Hornibrook, is only a redshirt Freshman. He looked pretty good at home last week, even against the tough Buckeye defense, but his start previous to that was in the Big House, and he did not play well. Against the Wolverines, Hornibrook went 9-25 for 88 yards, 1 TD and 3 INTs. To be fair, the entire offense struggled against the stiff Wolverine defense, but an away crowd in Kinnick Stadium will be tough for the young QB. Look for Wisconsin to focus on their ground game, especially since RB Corey Clement ran for 164 yards against Ohio State last Saturday. Iowa's defense has been fairly tough throughout the year, and only give up an average of 150 on the ground, but Wisconsin is a much tougher opponent. I think the Badgers will show why they're still in the top 10, despite their two recent losses, and get the victory in Iowa City. Look for Hornibrook to struggle early, if he doesn't fix the issues early, Iowa could hang around. I'll take the Badgers 28-13.
Colorado at Stanford
The Cardinal are coming off a very lack-luster victory against the Irish last week, and are really hoping to get Christian McCaffrey back. McCaffrey may be their only chance to compete with Colorado, because I'm not sure if they battered Cardinal defense can keep up with the Buffs. Colorado averages 515 yards per game on offense, and Stanford gives up an average of 370. They've struggled to stop other high-powered offenses already this season, which has lead to blowout losses like 44-6 against Washington and 42-16 against Wazzu. The Buffaloes have a really good chance to win the South division this year, but will need to get by David Shaw first. It's never easy to win in Palo Alto, especially if McCaffrey comes back this week. However, with the offensive attack the Buffs are bringing in, I'm just not sure if Stanford can stop them. It hurts to say this, but I'll take Colorado over Stanford, 37-20.
TCU at #12 West Virginia
The Mountaineers really surprised me last week, holding the high-flying Red Raiders to just 17 points on their own turf. They remained unbeaten, and return home to Morgantown to take on the Horned Frogs. This looks to be another classic shootout in the Big XII, but after last weeks performance, I think the Mountaineers might have one of the tougher defenses in the conference. Texas Tech had scored 50+ points in 9 straight games at home coming into last week, but were held to only 17 points and an astonishing 379 total yards (they average over 500 in just passing alone per game). TCU has not looked the most impressive all season, but they are never a team to discount. Kenny Hill is completing over 63% of his passes, but has a 12:8 TD to INT ratio. West Virginia hasn't been the best at creating turnovers, but look for them to get some pressure on Hill today. I'm taking the Mountaineers in another impressive game, 40-23.
#6 Texas A&M at #1 Alabama
The Aggies have been one of the few teams to cause Alabama headaches over the past few seasons, so this is always an intriguing match-up. We all know what Bama is going to bring to the table, so let's focus on the Aggies and see where their strengths lie. Texas A&M has played very well throughout the year, mostly because of QB Trevor Knight. He may only have a 53.5% completion rating, but his 510 rushing yards and 9 TDs on the ground make him very difficult to stop. Knight has been a master at keeping both plays and drives alive with his legs. Alabama has had issues with dual threat QBs in the past, but handled Joshua Dobbs well last week. Look for Trevor Knight to be the focal point of this game. If he can keep drives alive and keep the ball away from Bama's deadly offense, A&M could pull the upset. I think the Tide's defense will be to much in the end, and they will continue to roll. I wouldn't be opposed to the upset, but I'm sticking with Bama 38-28.
#17 Arkansas at #21 Auburn
This will be a fun game to watch down in the SEC because Arkansas is coming off of a big win against Ole Miss, and Auburn's offense is looking to continue improving after their BYE week. These two teams both score a little over 30 points per game, so I expect this one to be fairly close. There should be a fair amount of offense in this game because both defenses give up a large amount of yards, and both offenses average 445 (Arkansas) and 480 (Auburn) for yards per game. QB play will be huge in this game, especially with the Hogs being on the road. Austin Allen looked very impressive last week, and I expect him to lead the upset against the Tigers. Razorbacks 34, Tigers 30.
Purdue at #8 Nebraska
The Huskers return to Lincoln to take on the Boilermakers, and since losing to Purdue last season, Nebraska is 10-1. The Huskers are looking for revenge, and even though they are beaten up still, expect a fired up team. Nebraska needs to find its ground game again, especially with Purdue giving up 365 yards rushing a week ago to Iowa. Expect Newby to continue to carry the work load, but I expect Ozigbo to be back and all of our running backs to be used in this one. The offensive line has some question marks with all the injuries, but they will need to step up and gain some confidence in this game before traveling to Madison next week. They looked very poor against the Hoosiers last week, so look for them to be a focal point of the game. Another big focal point will be penalties. Nebraska had a number of dumb penalties last week, and I know that was a big issue on Coach Riley's list to fix this week. Defensively, Purdue QB David Blough will be the focus. Last year, Blough ran for 82 yards and 1 TD on the Blackshirts, and passed for 274 and 4 TDs. Based on the improvement in the secondary this year, I expect Purdue's passing game to be contained fairly well, but we cannot let David Blough run. Much like Clayton Thorson of Northwestern, he's a tricky QB for Nebraska to tackle, and often keeps plays and drives alive with his feet. Look for a lot of blitz packages to cause pressure and keep Blough away from scrambling.
Overall, I really don't think Purdue should cause Nebraska too many issues this year. The Huskers know not to overlook them, and they're dealing with the firing of their head coach while coming to the most intimidating place to play in the Conference, arguably the nation. I think Nebraska bounces back and hopefully gets Ryker some playing time late in the game to make amends for last season. Nebraska wins 45-14.
Some other big games to watch are Ohio State at Penn State (not a big upset possibility, but I think Penn State hangs around early, look for Saquon Barkley to have a big night), Oklahoma at Texas Tech, and Ole Miss at LSU. Thanks for reading and GO BIG RED!
#CollegeFootballKnowItAll
Alex Fernando
Monday, October 17, 2016
Week 7 Reflection
Hey everyone, I hope you all had a fun weekend of football and enjoyed another Husker victory! It was a little stressful at times, but the Huskers are 6-0 for the first time since 2001! I think that this will be a post that you will all want to read. I'll be going over my opinions and reflections of the win at Indiana, but I will also add my opinions on the recent "War" between Kirk Herbstreit and Nebraska fans. Enjoy!
Nebraska comes home from Bloomington with a hard-fought 27-22 victory over the Hoosiers. I'd like to start by saying that Indiana is a much better team than they have been in previous years, and I consider them a quality win. They hung with the Buckeyes last weekend, and they put up a great fight against the Huskers. With all that being said, here are my nit-picking opinions on the game.
Let's start with the bad so we can end on a positive note. For anyone who watched the game, it was easy to see that the offense was the "bad". Tommy's ankle was clearly bothering him as he would not step into any of his throws, causing a majority of his inaccuracy. Plus, anytime he dropped back to pass, the entire defensive line was on top of him before he finished his drop! The Offensive line is beaten up, but they should not be knocked 2 yards into the backfield on every play. That, in addition to the very frustrating play calling, is a big part of why the Huskers' run game and overall offense could not move for a majority of the game. The 2nd and 3rd quarters were absolutely agonizing to watch. Constant 3 & outs with questionable play-calls, and no points. There were numerous times throughout the game where Nebraska would line up and run Newby straight up the middle for a 6-8 yard gain. But then they would change and run a zone to either the right or left, losing a couple yards in the process because the offensive line cannot block those very well. Once behind the chains, there's only one thing to do, start throwing the ball with an injured rushing QB! I hate being this sarcastic about Nebraska's offense, but when you see how dominant they can be one play, and then turn around and go backwards on the next, you have to wonder what the issue is. They put together another great 4th quarter, controlling the clock and bumping their scoring margin to +75, but they will need a full game performance to compete with Wisconsin and Ohio State. Again, overall not a bad performance, but there were a number of fairly pathetic drives where Nebraska looked very similar to the 2015 Huskers in not being able to make a first down. Fixing penalty issues will be a focal point this week as well. I truly believe that Indiana should've had more than their 1 penalty, but that has nothing to do with the 9 penalties on the Huskers. A couple of offsides, false starts and holdings all need to be cleaned up. I would like to think that Purdue would be a good week to give Tommy rest, but after last year, I'm not sure that's a possibility. If they do play Ryker, Langsdorf better not pass the ball 50+ times like last season. The offense needs to challenge itself to get better.
Moving over to the defense, it is both good and bad that the Blackshirts are now the strength of our team. Good because the defense has been playing at a very high level all season with a lot of young talent. Bad because the offense returned nearly everyone from a year ago and has one of the deepest rosters at both WR and RB not only in the conference, but in the nation. The Blackshirts held a very dynamic Hoosier offense to only 88 yards rushing on Saturday. Apart from a couple drives late in the game, Indiana was lucky to get into field goal range for most of the game. I could tell that Indiana's fast tempo was causing some issues at times, and for some reason, nobody on the defense thought it would be a good idea to cover their rushing QB Zander Diamont whenever he came into the game. However, they did contain him fairly well after the first couple times he came in. The Huskers also came away with 3 sacks, causing lots of pressure throughout the game. Moving back into the secondary, it was frustrating to see so many passes caught with the receivers having an 8 yard cushion around them, but I understand the fear of not wanting to get beaten deep. That's a big part of why the Huskers' secondary plays so far off of the receivers on every play. I am glad we're not giving up as many deep balls, but I've always believed that giving such a large cushion to the wideouts should be a situational game plan. There are times to use it, and there are times to take away the short passes and trust your guys on the edge to lock down the deep ball if necessary. In the end, Nebraska's defense played probably one of their best games of the year, and they're gaining confidence every week. The Blackshirts will keep us in the big games that lie ahead, but the Offense needs to help them out.
Over the last few weeks, many Husker fans have gone out of their way to publicly bash College Football Analyst and College Gameday host, Kirk Herbstreit. This is due mostly to the fact that Herbstreit often picks against the Huskers, believing they're not quite deserving of their ranking. During the College Gameday broadcast on Saturday morning in Madison, WI, the Gameday crew talked about whether or not Nebraska was deserving of their #10 ranking in the polls. Desmond Howard stated that he wasn't entirely sold on the Huskers, but Herbstreit said that they are the top 10 team that their ranking reflected. The Gameday crew then proceeded to laugh, causing many Husker fans to believe that they were laughing at the Huskers. Some fans have tweeted at Herbstreit over recent weeks, and brought up the laughing issue this Saturday after the show. Kirk replied by saying that the crew was laughing at him because he changed his tune by finally siding with the Huskers. I believe Herbstreit with that statement, because I have a lot of respect for the show and the hosts. As someone who dreams of being on that set someday, I highly doubt that a show of that quality would deliberately laugh at one of the most historic programs in the nation.
My second point that I would like to bring up in this Media vs. Nebraska battle is that the fans make way too big of a deal about this. When I scroll through my Facebook feed and read through different articles, and all I see are comments bashing all of the media icons in CFB just because they didn't pick Nebraska, that's pathetic. The members of the media have NO OBLIGATION to agree with every fan base in the nation, and they are NOT REQUIRED to pick your team to win every week. Herbstreit, Howard, Corso, and everyone else has the freedom to make the picks on teams that they think will win. The only difference between the fans making picks and them is that they get to do it on TV. Just because they don't pick your team to win all the time, does not mean you have to bash them on social media. Also, there is no need to go out of your way to rub it in their face if their pick is wrong. After the Northwestern game, there were some Husker fans that tweeted at Kirk Herbstreit, poking fun at him because he picked the Wildcats to win. His reply was this: "When was your last meaningful season? When you LOSE say little; When you WIN say less." I personally think that was a great statement (don't think he needed to jab with the meaningful season part, but that's because I'm eternally nice to everyone). The second half of his statement is a good phrase to live by, especially as a fan base. You don't see our players rubbing a victory in all of their opponents faces, do you? If they are wrong, let them be wrong. No big deal. The best thing about football is that, no matter what happens, all you can do is focus and move onto the next week. Nebraska fans are supposed to be the greatest and most respectful in all of College Football, so start proving it. Respect is not limited just to opponents and their fans. Everyone is entitled to their own opinion on who the best team is, just because you don't agree doesn't make them wrong. GO BIG RED!
#CollegeFootballKnowItAll
Alex Fernando
Nebraska comes home from Bloomington with a hard-fought 27-22 victory over the Hoosiers. I'd like to start by saying that Indiana is a much better team than they have been in previous years, and I consider them a quality win. They hung with the Buckeyes last weekend, and they put up a great fight against the Huskers. With all that being said, here are my nit-picking opinions on the game.
Let's start with the bad so we can end on a positive note. For anyone who watched the game, it was easy to see that the offense was the "bad". Tommy's ankle was clearly bothering him as he would not step into any of his throws, causing a majority of his inaccuracy. Plus, anytime he dropped back to pass, the entire defensive line was on top of him before he finished his drop! The Offensive line is beaten up, but they should not be knocked 2 yards into the backfield on every play. That, in addition to the very frustrating play calling, is a big part of why the Huskers' run game and overall offense could not move for a majority of the game. The 2nd and 3rd quarters were absolutely agonizing to watch. Constant 3 & outs with questionable play-calls, and no points. There were numerous times throughout the game where Nebraska would line up and run Newby straight up the middle for a 6-8 yard gain. But then they would change and run a zone to either the right or left, losing a couple yards in the process because the offensive line cannot block those very well. Once behind the chains, there's only one thing to do, start throwing the ball with an injured rushing QB! I hate being this sarcastic about Nebraska's offense, but when you see how dominant they can be one play, and then turn around and go backwards on the next, you have to wonder what the issue is. They put together another great 4th quarter, controlling the clock and bumping their scoring margin to +75, but they will need a full game performance to compete with Wisconsin and Ohio State. Again, overall not a bad performance, but there were a number of fairly pathetic drives where Nebraska looked very similar to the 2015 Huskers in not being able to make a first down. Fixing penalty issues will be a focal point this week as well. I truly believe that Indiana should've had more than their 1 penalty, but that has nothing to do with the 9 penalties on the Huskers. A couple of offsides, false starts and holdings all need to be cleaned up. I would like to think that Purdue would be a good week to give Tommy rest, but after last year, I'm not sure that's a possibility. If they do play Ryker, Langsdorf better not pass the ball 50+ times like last season. The offense needs to challenge itself to get better.
Moving over to the defense, it is both good and bad that the Blackshirts are now the strength of our team. Good because the defense has been playing at a very high level all season with a lot of young talent. Bad because the offense returned nearly everyone from a year ago and has one of the deepest rosters at both WR and RB not only in the conference, but in the nation. The Blackshirts held a very dynamic Hoosier offense to only 88 yards rushing on Saturday. Apart from a couple drives late in the game, Indiana was lucky to get into field goal range for most of the game. I could tell that Indiana's fast tempo was causing some issues at times, and for some reason, nobody on the defense thought it would be a good idea to cover their rushing QB Zander Diamont whenever he came into the game. However, they did contain him fairly well after the first couple times he came in. The Huskers also came away with 3 sacks, causing lots of pressure throughout the game. Moving back into the secondary, it was frustrating to see so many passes caught with the receivers having an 8 yard cushion around them, but I understand the fear of not wanting to get beaten deep. That's a big part of why the Huskers' secondary plays so far off of the receivers on every play. I am glad we're not giving up as many deep balls, but I've always believed that giving such a large cushion to the wideouts should be a situational game plan. There are times to use it, and there are times to take away the short passes and trust your guys on the edge to lock down the deep ball if necessary. In the end, Nebraska's defense played probably one of their best games of the year, and they're gaining confidence every week. The Blackshirts will keep us in the big games that lie ahead, but the Offense needs to help them out.
Over the last few weeks, many Husker fans have gone out of their way to publicly bash College Football Analyst and College Gameday host, Kirk Herbstreit. This is due mostly to the fact that Herbstreit often picks against the Huskers, believing they're not quite deserving of their ranking. During the College Gameday broadcast on Saturday morning in Madison, WI, the Gameday crew talked about whether or not Nebraska was deserving of their #10 ranking in the polls. Desmond Howard stated that he wasn't entirely sold on the Huskers, but Herbstreit said that they are the top 10 team that their ranking reflected. The Gameday crew then proceeded to laugh, causing many Husker fans to believe that they were laughing at the Huskers. Some fans have tweeted at Herbstreit over recent weeks, and brought up the laughing issue this Saturday after the show. Kirk replied by saying that the crew was laughing at him because he changed his tune by finally siding with the Huskers. I believe Herbstreit with that statement, because I have a lot of respect for the show and the hosts. As someone who dreams of being on that set someday, I highly doubt that a show of that quality would deliberately laugh at one of the most historic programs in the nation.
My second point that I would like to bring up in this Media vs. Nebraska battle is that the fans make way too big of a deal about this. When I scroll through my Facebook feed and read through different articles, and all I see are comments bashing all of the media icons in CFB just because they didn't pick Nebraska, that's pathetic. The members of the media have NO OBLIGATION to agree with every fan base in the nation, and they are NOT REQUIRED to pick your team to win every week. Herbstreit, Howard, Corso, and everyone else has the freedom to make the picks on teams that they think will win. The only difference between the fans making picks and them is that they get to do it on TV. Just because they don't pick your team to win all the time, does not mean you have to bash them on social media. Also, there is no need to go out of your way to rub it in their face if their pick is wrong. After the Northwestern game, there were some Husker fans that tweeted at Kirk Herbstreit, poking fun at him because he picked the Wildcats to win. His reply was this: "When was your last meaningful season? When you LOSE say little; When you WIN say less." I personally think that was a great statement (don't think he needed to jab with the meaningful season part, but that's because I'm eternally nice to everyone). The second half of his statement is a good phrase to live by, especially as a fan base. You don't see our players rubbing a victory in all of their opponents faces, do you? If they are wrong, let them be wrong. No big deal. The best thing about football is that, no matter what happens, all you can do is focus and move onto the next week. Nebraska fans are supposed to be the greatest and most respectful in all of College Football, so start proving it. Respect is not limited just to opponents and their fans. Everyone is entitled to their own opinion on who the best team is, just because you don't agree doesn't make them wrong. GO BIG RED!
#CollegeFootballKnowItAll
Alex Fernando
Saturday, October 15, 2016
Week 7 Predictions
Another weekend of football is upon us and I am beyond excited to see my Huskers get back to work on their undefeated season. I have another great selection of games to give predictions on, so I hope you're all ready to sit back and relax with some football tomorrow! Here are my picks for week 7, enjoy!
#20 West Virginia at Texas Tech
This is an interesting match-up in the Big XII because WVU looks to continue their unbeaten season while Texas Tech looks to get back into the Big XII title chase. I honestly don't expect the ball to touch the ground much in this game, because we are going to be watching two of the best passing attacks in the nation. The Mountaineers average 318 passing yards per game, and the Red Raiders average a national best, 554 passing yards per game. Obviously TTU has the advantage based on the numbers, but WVU's more balanced offense could cause issues for the Red Raider defense. I would bet on a lot of points in this one, because both teams score a lot, but also give up a lot of scores. Turnovers will play a huge factor in a game like this, because one extra possession could put the game away with an extra score. I would like to see the Mountaineers continue their winning streak and compete for a Big XII title, but a road trip to Lubbock will not be easy. Patrick Mahomes already has 20 passing TDs on the season for the Red Raiders, and this will be West Virginia's first road game of the year. Expect a shoot out, and it could go either way, but I'll give the edge to the home team. Red Raiders 57, West Virginia 49.
#1 Alabama at #9 Tennessee
The Crimson Tide survived their trip to Arkansas, but now have to go back on the road, and this time up to Knoxville. Tennessee is coming off of their double OT loss at Texas A&M, and are looking to get back on track towards the Playoff. The Vols' ability to fight back into games after sub-par first half performances has been incredible all season long. Sadly for them, their magic came to an end in College Station. Tennessee should get RB Jalen Hurd back for this game, which will be a big factor as they look to control the clock and keep the ball away from the Tide. Alabama's defense is only giving up an average of 70 yards rushing per game, so Tennessee will have their work cut out for them when running the ball today. This will be the toughest test yet for Bama, especially with Tennessee's comeback ability. I think this game will be very similar to the Texas A&M-Tennessee game last week. Turnovers and QB play will be my key factors to watch in this game. Joshua Dobbs had two interceptions last week, including the game ending one in double OT. Alabama QB Jalen Hurts has done very well at taking care of the football so far this season, only throwing two picks thus far. We'll see which QB rises to the challenge and to the top of Rocky Top. I would love to see the Vols pull the upset and cause all sorts of havoc in the top 10, but I think Alabama is too strong on defense to allow a big comeback. They lead the SEC in sacks with 24, and the Vols lead the SEC in giving up sacks with 12. Protecting Joshua Dobbs will be important, but difficult. If Tennessee wants to win this one, they will need to keep it close all game long. I'll stick with the Tide in this one 35-23, but it will be tighter than the score says.
Stanford at Notre Dame
Normally, this is one of the biggest games to watch, and often has playoff implications attached to it. This year, it's not quite the case with these teams. Both the Fighting Irish and the Cardinal have struggled tremendously through the first half of the season, and this rivalry game is being looked at as a key win to get to a bowl game for both teams. Stanford has given up over 40 points in its last two games, and star RB Christian McCaffrey has hardly been a factor in any game this season. For Notre Dame, their entire season has had a number of issues. Lots of turnovers on offense are causing field position issues for a defense that gives up over 400 yards and nearly 30 points per game. You never know how to predict a rivalry game, but with how these teams have played this season, I'm not really sure how to look at this game. Defense is the biggest question mark for both teams, so whichever one steps up will be the winner. Notre Dame will have better weather this week, and since they're at home, I'll give them the edge in this game. You could probably toss a coin on this one, but I'll go with the Irish in a 30-24 win.
North Carolina at #16 Miami
These two ACC Coastal foes square off in Miami, both coming off of some devastating losses. The Tar Heels enter this game after the 34-3 beat down they suffered to the Hokies at home last week. UNC QB Mitch Trubisky threw his first two picks of the season last week, so look for him to try and get back on track against the Hurricanes. Speaking of the Hurricanes, their undefeated season came to an end last week when arch-rival Florida State blocked the game-tying PAT with just over a minute left. Miami struggled to move the ball last week, coming away with only 276 total yards, and they lost the Time of Possession battle by nearly 14 minutes. Even with the offensive struggles, Miami played a pretty good game last week, holding FSU to only 20 points, but most of those points were given up in the second half, allowing FSU to complete their comeback win. The Tar Heels' numbers against VT were very similar to Miami's against FSU (131 total yards, lost the TOP battle by 20 minutes). Jumping back to the match-up between UNC and Miami, I think the big key to the game is going to be penalties and the rushing attacks. Both teams have struggled with penalties (Miami had 10 last week and UNC had 8), allowing teams to continue their long drives (big reason both teams are losing TOP battles). My other key is the rushing attacks, we know that both Trubisky and Kaaya will be playing their best, so I'm looking at the running backs. Elijah Hood is one of the best kept secrets in the country, but part of that is because the Tar Heels are not using him nearly as much as they should. UNC's struggles stem from a lack of a rushing attack, so look for Hood to start getting more carries if they want to win. Miami's running back Mark Walton has nearly 500 yards on the ground this year and 8 TDs. With UNC giving up nearly 230 yards rushing per game, expect Walton to have a big game and lead the Hurricanes to victory. I'll take Miami in this one, 35-17.
#12 Ole Miss at #22 Arkansas
This is one will be a fun one to watch in the SEC West. Arkansas has struggle to run the ball this season, which has caused issues when facing their top tier opponents. Ole Miss has struggled to hold late leads and are trying to get back into the division title chase. Defense will be a big factor in this game, because the Hogs have had difficulties stopping high-powered offenses, and the Rebels have struggled to maintain their leads late in games. Turnovers are key in this one, because the Razorbacks will not be able to keep it close if they give Chad Kelly too many opportunities. Ole Miss averages nearly 500 yards per game and 42 points, while the Hogs are around 450 and 35 respectively. I would imagine a good amount of points are going to be scored in this one, so look for another shootout down in the SEC. I'll stick with Chad Kelly and the nearly unstoppable Rebel offense, but if Arkansas gets the ball moving on the ground, this could turn into a tight one. Rebels 42, Razorbacks 31.
Arizona State at Colorado
This is one of my highlight matches to watch out West. Huge divisional implications in the PAC-12 South. These two teams sit atop the division (also tied with Utah), so this will be a big game to get a step up. I would expect a lot of points in this game as well, because both teams have tremendous talent on offense. Arizona State is averaging 435 yards per game and 40 points, Colorado is averaging 505 yards per game and 39 points. The big question in this game is Colorado's run game against Arizona State's rush defense. The Buffs are averaging nearly 200 yards on the ground per game, but the Sun Devils are only giving up 90. A steady run game is key to winning the TOP battle, so look for that to play a big factor. Turnovers are key too, because with how much these offenses score, you don't want to give them an edge. I'll go with the Buffs because I have them as my dark horse in the South, plus they're at home. Last time the Sun Devils went on the road, they lost to USC 41-20. I've got the Buffaloes in a barn-burner, 45-37l
UCLA at Washington Sate
Another big game in the PAC-12 takes place up North on the campus of Wazzu. The Cougars look to continue their conference win streak so they can compete with the arch rival Huskies. UCLA has struggled through this first half of the season, mostly because their stellar offensive attack has not been so stellar. Coming into the season, they were predicted to have one of the top offensive attacks in the nation, but they're only averaging 26.8 points per game. With QB Josh Rosen being a game time decision, I don't see the Bruins standing much of a chance. The Cougars are averaging nearly 44 points per game and 530 yards of offense. QB Luke Falk has over 1800 passing yards and an impressive 16:4 TD to INT ratio. I don't think UCLA's struggling offense will be able to keep up with the Cougars, and that bodes well for the winner of ASU-Colorado. I'm going with Wazzu 38-21.
#2 Ohio State at #8 Wisconsin
The big game of the week takes place up in Madison, WI. The match-up between the Badgers and the Buckeys not only has BIG 10 implications, but also has Playoff implications on both teams. Wisconsin looks to get back into the picture after their tough loss at the Big House a couple weeks ago. This time they're at home, and they get one of the best offensive attacks in the nation. JT Barrett leads the Buckeyes into Camp Randall with a 64.2% completion rating, but he will be facing off against one of the best defenses in the country. He struggled through the air against the Hoosiers last week, only completing 9 passes for 93 yards, but he had over 100 yards rushing. The Badgers only give up 90 on the ground and 12 points per game, so expect a hard-nosed, low scoring affair in this one. The Badgers can slow down anyone, but they cannot move themselves on offense. They only average 26 points per game, which is why I believe that if any team gets 2, maybe 3 scores or more, they will beat Wisconsin. The Badgers just aren't built to hang in higher scoring matches because their offense is so sluggish. Looking at the Buckeys, their offense is one of the most efficient in the nation. As a Husker fan, it would help a lot if the Badgers lost, so Nebraska could have an extra game on them, but either way, the Huskers have to play both of these powerhouses on the road. Camp Randall at night is never an easy task, but I think JT will sneak out with the victory. A couple of key scrambles to keep drives alive could be the difference in this one. Like I said, if you score 2-3 times against the Badgers (not an easy task), you probably have enough points to beat them. Could go either way, but I'll go with the Buckeyes in a tight, 20-16 victory.
#10 Nebraska at Indiana
The Huskers come out of their BYE week and head to Bloomington to take on the Hoosiers. There has been a lot of talk about upsets and Nebraska not deserving their #10 ranking this past week, so here are my thoughts on both. First off, with the ranking, they never mean that much to myself, but I'm not upset with the ranking. It's always fun to see your team in the top 10 (I personally see us around #12 still) but two spots really don't make that much of a difference at this point in the season. Looking over to the game, the upset potential is there, but I don't think that it's quite as likely as a lot of people are saying (not just because I love my Huskers, I have facts and reasoning to back it up).
Indiana is never an easy team to play, especially in Bloomington, because they have one of the best offenses in the nation. They consistently push the pace of the game and put up a lot of points on the board. This year, they're numbers don't quite reflect that offensive power, but they are never one to overlook. Nebraska is still a little banged up, but do return a number of key players for this game. I think the Hoosiers will hang around for a while, just like they did at Ohio State last week, but in the end Nebraska will wear them down and take over in the 4th as they have done all season long. Indiana's defense has improved drastically since the last few seasons, and new D-Coordinator Tom Allen has the Hoosiers competing in every game. They held OSU to 93 passing yards last week, but the problem was the rushing attack. JT Barrett alone had 137 yards, and Nebraska QB Tommy Armstrong loves to run. I expect Tommy to be used a lot on the ground today, keeping the ball away from Indiana's offense. He won't have Devine Ozigbo, but Terrell Newby looks to carry the load while Mikale Wilbon and Tre Bryant mix in to give Newby some breaks. I don't expect Nebraska's offense to slow down much in this game, but they need to come out sharp. The last few games have taken a couple of quarters for the Huskers to wake up. When Indiana averages over 450 yards per game, you don't want to fall behind. Turnovers are key, because Nebraska is finally positive in the turnover margin in a season. Look for the Blackshirts to come after Richard Lagow and cause him to throw under pressure. RB Devine Redding will be a player to watch, but Nebraska's steady run defense should contain him. Nebraska improves to 6-0 and wins this game 35-20.
Some other interesting games to watch today are NC State at Clemson and Northwestern at Michigan State! I hope you all enjoyed my picks and have a wonderful Saturday of football! GO BIG RED!
#CollegeFootballKnowItAll
Alex Fernando
#20 West Virginia at Texas Tech
This is an interesting match-up in the Big XII because WVU looks to continue their unbeaten season while Texas Tech looks to get back into the Big XII title chase. I honestly don't expect the ball to touch the ground much in this game, because we are going to be watching two of the best passing attacks in the nation. The Mountaineers average 318 passing yards per game, and the Red Raiders average a national best, 554 passing yards per game. Obviously TTU has the advantage based on the numbers, but WVU's more balanced offense could cause issues for the Red Raider defense. I would bet on a lot of points in this one, because both teams score a lot, but also give up a lot of scores. Turnovers will play a huge factor in a game like this, because one extra possession could put the game away with an extra score. I would like to see the Mountaineers continue their winning streak and compete for a Big XII title, but a road trip to Lubbock will not be easy. Patrick Mahomes already has 20 passing TDs on the season for the Red Raiders, and this will be West Virginia's first road game of the year. Expect a shoot out, and it could go either way, but I'll give the edge to the home team. Red Raiders 57, West Virginia 49.
#1 Alabama at #9 Tennessee
The Crimson Tide survived their trip to Arkansas, but now have to go back on the road, and this time up to Knoxville. Tennessee is coming off of their double OT loss at Texas A&M, and are looking to get back on track towards the Playoff. The Vols' ability to fight back into games after sub-par first half performances has been incredible all season long. Sadly for them, their magic came to an end in College Station. Tennessee should get RB Jalen Hurd back for this game, which will be a big factor as they look to control the clock and keep the ball away from the Tide. Alabama's defense is only giving up an average of 70 yards rushing per game, so Tennessee will have their work cut out for them when running the ball today. This will be the toughest test yet for Bama, especially with Tennessee's comeback ability. I think this game will be very similar to the Texas A&M-Tennessee game last week. Turnovers and QB play will be my key factors to watch in this game. Joshua Dobbs had two interceptions last week, including the game ending one in double OT. Alabama QB Jalen Hurts has done very well at taking care of the football so far this season, only throwing two picks thus far. We'll see which QB rises to the challenge and to the top of Rocky Top. I would love to see the Vols pull the upset and cause all sorts of havoc in the top 10, but I think Alabama is too strong on defense to allow a big comeback. They lead the SEC in sacks with 24, and the Vols lead the SEC in giving up sacks with 12. Protecting Joshua Dobbs will be important, but difficult. If Tennessee wants to win this one, they will need to keep it close all game long. I'll stick with the Tide in this one 35-23, but it will be tighter than the score says.
Stanford at Notre Dame
Normally, this is one of the biggest games to watch, and often has playoff implications attached to it. This year, it's not quite the case with these teams. Both the Fighting Irish and the Cardinal have struggled tremendously through the first half of the season, and this rivalry game is being looked at as a key win to get to a bowl game for both teams. Stanford has given up over 40 points in its last two games, and star RB Christian McCaffrey has hardly been a factor in any game this season. For Notre Dame, their entire season has had a number of issues. Lots of turnovers on offense are causing field position issues for a defense that gives up over 400 yards and nearly 30 points per game. You never know how to predict a rivalry game, but with how these teams have played this season, I'm not really sure how to look at this game. Defense is the biggest question mark for both teams, so whichever one steps up will be the winner. Notre Dame will have better weather this week, and since they're at home, I'll give them the edge in this game. You could probably toss a coin on this one, but I'll go with the Irish in a 30-24 win.
North Carolina at #16 Miami
These two ACC Coastal foes square off in Miami, both coming off of some devastating losses. The Tar Heels enter this game after the 34-3 beat down they suffered to the Hokies at home last week. UNC QB Mitch Trubisky threw his first two picks of the season last week, so look for him to try and get back on track against the Hurricanes. Speaking of the Hurricanes, their undefeated season came to an end last week when arch-rival Florida State blocked the game-tying PAT with just over a minute left. Miami struggled to move the ball last week, coming away with only 276 total yards, and they lost the Time of Possession battle by nearly 14 minutes. Even with the offensive struggles, Miami played a pretty good game last week, holding FSU to only 20 points, but most of those points were given up in the second half, allowing FSU to complete their comeback win. The Tar Heels' numbers against VT were very similar to Miami's against FSU (131 total yards, lost the TOP battle by 20 minutes). Jumping back to the match-up between UNC and Miami, I think the big key to the game is going to be penalties and the rushing attacks. Both teams have struggled with penalties (Miami had 10 last week and UNC had 8), allowing teams to continue their long drives (big reason both teams are losing TOP battles). My other key is the rushing attacks, we know that both Trubisky and Kaaya will be playing their best, so I'm looking at the running backs. Elijah Hood is one of the best kept secrets in the country, but part of that is because the Tar Heels are not using him nearly as much as they should. UNC's struggles stem from a lack of a rushing attack, so look for Hood to start getting more carries if they want to win. Miami's running back Mark Walton has nearly 500 yards on the ground this year and 8 TDs. With UNC giving up nearly 230 yards rushing per game, expect Walton to have a big game and lead the Hurricanes to victory. I'll take Miami in this one, 35-17.
#12 Ole Miss at #22 Arkansas
This is one will be a fun one to watch in the SEC West. Arkansas has struggle to run the ball this season, which has caused issues when facing their top tier opponents. Ole Miss has struggled to hold late leads and are trying to get back into the division title chase. Defense will be a big factor in this game, because the Hogs have had difficulties stopping high-powered offenses, and the Rebels have struggled to maintain their leads late in games. Turnovers are key in this one, because the Razorbacks will not be able to keep it close if they give Chad Kelly too many opportunities. Ole Miss averages nearly 500 yards per game and 42 points, while the Hogs are around 450 and 35 respectively. I would imagine a good amount of points are going to be scored in this one, so look for another shootout down in the SEC. I'll stick with Chad Kelly and the nearly unstoppable Rebel offense, but if Arkansas gets the ball moving on the ground, this could turn into a tight one. Rebels 42, Razorbacks 31.
Arizona State at Colorado
This is one of my highlight matches to watch out West. Huge divisional implications in the PAC-12 South. These two teams sit atop the division (also tied with Utah), so this will be a big game to get a step up. I would expect a lot of points in this game as well, because both teams have tremendous talent on offense. Arizona State is averaging 435 yards per game and 40 points, Colorado is averaging 505 yards per game and 39 points. The big question in this game is Colorado's run game against Arizona State's rush defense. The Buffs are averaging nearly 200 yards on the ground per game, but the Sun Devils are only giving up 90. A steady run game is key to winning the TOP battle, so look for that to play a big factor. Turnovers are key too, because with how much these offenses score, you don't want to give them an edge. I'll go with the Buffs because I have them as my dark horse in the South, plus they're at home. Last time the Sun Devils went on the road, they lost to USC 41-20. I've got the Buffaloes in a barn-burner, 45-37l
UCLA at Washington Sate
Another big game in the PAC-12 takes place up North on the campus of Wazzu. The Cougars look to continue their conference win streak so they can compete with the arch rival Huskies. UCLA has struggled through this first half of the season, mostly because their stellar offensive attack has not been so stellar. Coming into the season, they were predicted to have one of the top offensive attacks in the nation, but they're only averaging 26.8 points per game. With QB Josh Rosen being a game time decision, I don't see the Bruins standing much of a chance. The Cougars are averaging nearly 44 points per game and 530 yards of offense. QB Luke Falk has over 1800 passing yards and an impressive 16:4 TD to INT ratio. I don't think UCLA's struggling offense will be able to keep up with the Cougars, and that bodes well for the winner of ASU-Colorado. I'm going with Wazzu 38-21.
#2 Ohio State at #8 Wisconsin
The big game of the week takes place up in Madison, WI. The match-up between the Badgers and the Buckeys not only has BIG 10 implications, but also has Playoff implications on both teams. Wisconsin looks to get back into the picture after their tough loss at the Big House a couple weeks ago. This time they're at home, and they get one of the best offensive attacks in the nation. JT Barrett leads the Buckeyes into Camp Randall with a 64.2% completion rating, but he will be facing off against one of the best defenses in the country. He struggled through the air against the Hoosiers last week, only completing 9 passes for 93 yards, but he had over 100 yards rushing. The Badgers only give up 90 on the ground and 12 points per game, so expect a hard-nosed, low scoring affair in this one. The Badgers can slow down anyone, but they cannot move themselves on offense. They only average 26 points per game, which is why I believe that if any team gets 2, maybe 3 scores or more, they will beat Wisconsin. The Badgers just aren't built to hang in higher scoring matches because their offense is so sluggish. Looking at the Buckeys, their offense is one of the most efficient in the nation. As a Husker fan, it would help a lot if the Badgers lost, so Nebraska could have an extra game on them, but either way, the Huskers have to play both of these powerhouses on the road. Camp Randall at night is never an easy task, but I think JT will sneak out with the victory. A couple of key scrambles to keep drives alive could be the difference in this one. Like I said, if you score 2-3 times against the Badgers (not an easy task), you probably have enough points to beat them. Could go either way, but I'll go with the Buckeyes in a tight, 20-16 victory.
#10 Nebraska at Indiana
The Huskers come out of their BYE week and head to Bloomington to take on the Hoosiers. There has been a lot of talk about upsets and Nebraska not deserving their #10 ranking this past week, so here are my thoughts on both. First off, with the ranking, they never mean that much to myself, but I'm not upset with the ranking. It's always fun to see your team in the top 10 (I personally see us around #12 still) but two spots really don't make that much of a difference at this point in the season. Looking over to the game, the upset potential is there, but I don't think that it's quite as likely as a lot of people are saying (not just because I love my Huskers, I have facts and reasoning to back it up).
Indiana is never an easy team to play, especially in Bloomington, because they have one of the best offenses in the nation. They consistently push the pace of the game and put up a lot of points on the board. This year, they're numbers don't quite reflect that offensive power, but they are never one to overlook. Nebraska is still a little banged up, but do return a number of key players for this game. I think the Hoosiers will hang around for a while, just like they did at Ohio State last week, but in the end Nebraska will wear them down and take over in the 4th as they have done all season long. Indiana's defense has improved drastically since the last few seasons, and new D-Coordinator Tom Allen has the Hoosiers competing in every game. They held OSU to 93 passing yards last week, but the problem was the rushing attack. JT Barrett alone had 137 yards, and Nebraska QB Tommy Armstrong loves to run. I expect Tommy to be used a lot on the ground today, keeping the ball away from Indiana's offense. He won't have Devine Ozigbo, but Terrell Newby looks to carry the load while Mikale Wilbon and Tre Bryant mix in to give Newby some breaks. I don't expect Nebraska's offense to slow down much in this game, but they need to come out sharp. The last few games have taken a couple of quarters for the Huskers to wake up. When Indiana averages over 450 yards per game, you don't want to fall behind. Turnovers are key, because Nebraska is finally positive in the turnover margin in a season. Look for the Blackshirts to come after Richard Lagow and cause him to throw under pressure. RB Devine Redding will be a player to watch, but Nebraska's steady run defense should contain him. Nebraska improves to 6-0 and wins this game 35-20.
Some other interesting games to watch today are NC State at Clemson and Northwestern at Michigan State! I hope you all enjoyed my picks and have a wonderful Saturday of football! GO BIG RED!
#CollegeFootballKnowItAll
Alex Fernando
Wednesday, October 12, 2016
Mid-Season Conference Update
Hey everyone, I hope you enjoyed another great weekend of College Football! There were some great games this weekend, and I was very impressed by a couple performances, most notably Washington's thrashing of the Ducks. This post is going to focus on my opinions on who the favorites are in each of the Power 5 Conferences half way through the season. My thoughts on a few teams have changed, so please enjoy, and let me know what you think!
The ACC
At the beginning of the season, I picked North Carolina and Clemson to square off for a re-match in the ACC championship. The Tar Heels took a big hit this past weekend after being trashed by Virginia Tech (2-0 in ACC play) 34-3. Miami also fell back in the Coastal division as FSU knocked them from the ranks of the "unbeatens" after blocking the game tying PAT with only a few minutes left in the game. The next 9 days will tell us a lot about the Coastal division, because Miami plays UNC on the 15th, then quickly turns around and travels to Blacksburg, VA 5 days later on the 20th. If they come out of those games 2-0, they will have knocked down their biggest competition in the Coastal Division. I see it as a 3-way race between the Hurricanes, Tar Heels, and Hokies. All three teams have just as much chance to beat the others, but if Virginia Tech can keep up their recent defensive success, I'm going to give them the edge. Plus they have Miami at home, and on a short week, so that is a huge advantage.
On the Atlantic side, Clemson has the top spot, and since they've already downed the Cardinals from Louisville, they have a good chance at holding out to win the division. The Tigers have a tough road challenge in a few weeks down to Tallahassee, but the Seminoles have struggled in big games so far this year, and were demolished by Lamar Jackson, so I doubt Deshaun Watson will be much better to them. A couple of sneaky teams wait in November though; Pitt has played teams close all season long, winning and losing a couple, and you never want to underestimate the rivalry game with the Gamecocks. I've still got Clemson winning the Atlantic Division, and the overall ACC.
The Big XII
This conference is an absolute mess. We have a little better idea after the Red River Rivalry victory by the Sooners, but I still don't know for sure who will come out of this conference as the victor. I said it before the season, and I'll say it again; there will be NO Big XII team in the College Football Playoff this season. I don't think there is a strong enough team in the Big XII, and it seems like they're all going to cannibalize each other fighting for the Conference Title. I picked the Sooners to own the Big XII at the beginning of the season, and they're tied for the conference lead at 2-0 with Baylor. The Bears have yet to play much competition, and their game against the Sooners is in Norman, so I don't think they will stay unbeaten for long. They team that keeps winning games but not many people are talking about though, is West Virginia. Skyler Howard and Shelton Gibson are leading one of the best passing attacks in the nation, averaging 318 yards per game. The Mountaineers have played a lot of close games, but the key is that they are winning those close games. I think they may be a team to watch the rest of the season, especially because they get TCU, Oklahoma and Baylor in Morgantown. I'll give the edge to the Sooners right now, but that may change by the time we get to November. Keep your eye on the Mountaineers.
The PAC-12
The dark horse has jumped into the spot light and has taken the College Football world by storm. I picked Stanford and UCLA, but I did express concern about Washington's ability to compete. Well I think it's safe to say that they really came to compete this year. The Huskies have a top 10 scoring offense (averaging 49.5 points per game) and a top 10 scoring defense (giving up only 14.2 points per game). Their last two weeks have been victories by a combined score of 114-27 against two of the PAC-12 powerhouses in Stanford and Oregon. There are still a lot of games left in the season, but if the Huskies keep playing at this level, they will be very tough to stop. A tricky road game to Salt Lake City sits a few weeks away, but other than that I don't see Washington having many issues until the Apple Cup against their rivals Washington State. Speaking of Wazzu, the Cougars are also unbeaten in conference play, but are not nearly as complete as the Huskies.
Down in the southern half of the conference, some puzzling teams are all tied atop the division. Arizona State, Utah and Colorado are all sitting at 2-1, and looking to win the South Division crown. All have dynamic offenses, but the back half of the schedules pose lots of different threats. All three still have to play each other, so we'll find out who can outlast in the South. I'm giving the edge to the Utes right now, because if they can handle a road trip to UCLA in a couple weeks, they could knock the Bruins out of contention. They have a tough home match-up with Washington, and have to travel to both ASU and Colorado, but they are probably the most consistent team of the three leaders. Colorado is my dark horse down South though. They stumbled last week against the Trojans, but can rebound against the Sun Devils this week and avoid Washington out of the North. Having ASU, UCLA, Wazzu and Utah all come to Boulder will be an advantage too, so watch out for the Buffs.
The SEC
The SEC looks to be a lock in the East, even with Tennessee stumbling this past weekend. Florida poses a threat because they avoid the Tide and A&M from the West, and no one knows if their game with LSU will be played or not at this point. Tennessee has another tough test with Bama coming up to Knoxville this Saturday, but after that they shouldn't have too many games to worry about. If they do fall to the Tide, Florida will have the lead in the conference, but the Vols have the head to head win, so if Florida drops one (rivalry game with Georgia or a trip to Arkansas) then Tennessee will be back in the driver seat.
On the West side, the Tide look to keep rolling, but the 4 week stretch of at Tennessee, home against A&M, BYE and then at LSU does not look friendly. The Aggies are undefeated, and pose the biggest threat to Alabama to take away the West Division crown. No matter what happens in Knoxville this week, all eyes will be focused on Tuscaloosa, AL next week as the Aggies come to Bryant-Denny Stadium looking for an upset. I'm still leaning towards Alabama, because it's nearly impossible to bet against them, but they will be truly tested over the next few weeks, and this will show who is the real powerhouse in the West. If Bama wins the West, they'll win the entire SEC. If Texas A&M win the West, a rematch with Tennessee could be dangerous.
The BIG 10
We'll start in the East because there is no way to ignore the dominance that has been shown by both Ohio State and Michigan. Both the Buckeyes and Wolverines have top 5 scoring offenses and defenses, causing all sorts of headaches for teams. The Wolverines got over the Wisconsin hurdle, and have a fairly manageable schedule until their showdown in Columbus. Road trips to East Lansing and Iowa City could be tricky, but probably won't play much of a factor. For the Buckeyes, the bulk of their schedule is just beginning. Their next 4 weeks pose a number of different threats as their schedule goes like this: at Wisconsin, at Penn State, home for a tricky Northwestern team, and then home again against the Huskers. Wisconsin and Nebraska are going to cause the most issues, but Penn State and Northwestern are never teams to overlook. The showdown in Madison will tell us a lot moving forward, especially because the Buckeyes didn't look the best (only 93 yards passing) against Indiana last week. Both Ohio State and Michigan look like they could hang with anyone in the nation, but I'll stick with the Buckeyes for now since the Big Game is in Columbus. You could honestly toss a coin on the East Division though.
Moving over to the West, a few teams still have a shot, but it will likely come down to Nebraska and Wisconsin. Iowa has fallen back to Earth and down into the pit of mediocrity where they kinda belong in my opinion (sorry, gotta bash the rivals), leading me to believe that they will not win either of their games against the Badgers or the Wolverines. However, both those games (and the Huskers') are in Iowa City, so you never really know. Back to the teams of Red & White, Wisconsin has really surprised me this year. I never have a problem trusting their strength on defense, but they have been incredible this season. They are only giving up 12.2 points per game, and have absolutely suffocated any and every run game that they have faced. However, with all that being said, I still think that thier schedule is a little too stacked for them to have a clean enough record to win the West Division. They have the potential to beat the Buckeyes this weekend, but if they don't, they will fall to 2-2 in the conference with quite a bit of ground to make up. So, with Iowa and Wisconsin's schedules consuming their conference records, Nebraska still remains my favorite (I have un-biased reasons coming up). The Huskers have a favorable schedule, and although they have to travel to both Wisconsin and Ohio State, the brutality of their schedules could provide an advantage for the Huskers. The Badgers will becoming off of a two week stretch of Ohio State, and then an away game at their rival Iowa. I already talked about Ohio State's schedule above, so look for the wear and tear to play a factor. Nebraska can still win the West without beating Wisconsin, but if the Huskers can get the head to head, they will have no problem finishing out their schedule for the West Division crown. I'm still taking my Huskers out West in the BIG 10!
I hope you all enjoyed my conference update! Please let me know if you have any teams you'd like me to analyze or something else you'd like to see on my blog! Don't forget to sign your email up to receive notifications for all my posts. Thanks for reading and GO BIG RED!!
#CollegeFootballKnowItAll
Alex Fernando
The ACC
At the beginning of the season, I picked North Carolina and Clemson to square off for a re-match in the ACC championship. The Tar Heels took a big hit this past weekend after being trashed by Virginia Tech (2-0 in ACC play) 34-3. Miami also fell back in the Coastal division as FSU knocked them from the ranks of the "unbeatens" after blocking the game tying PAT with only a few minutes left in the game. The next 9 days will tell us a lot about the Coastal division, because Miami plays UNC on the 15th, then quickly turns around and travels to Blacksburg, VA 5 days later on the 20th. If they come out of those games 2-0, they will have knocked down their biggest competition in the Coastal Division. I see it as a 3-way race between the Hurricanes, Tar Heels, and Hokies. All three teams have just as much chance to beat the others, but if Virginia Tech can keep up their recent defensive success, I'm going to give them the edge. Plus they have Miami at home, and on a short week, so that is a huge advantage.
On the Atlantic side, Clemson has the top spot, and since they've already downed the Cardinals from Louisville, they have a good chance at holding out to win the division. The Tigers have a tough road challenge in a few weeks down to Tallahassee, but the Seminoles have struggled in big games so far this year, and were demolished by Lamar Jackson, so I doubt Deshaun Watson will be much better to them. A couple of sneaky teams wait in November though; Pitt has played teams close all season long, winning and losing a couple, and you never want to underestimate the rivalry game with the Gamecocks. I've still got Clemson winning the Atlantic Division, and the overall ACC.
The Big XII
This conference is an absolute mess. We have a little better idea after the Red River Rivalry victory by the Sooners, but I still don't know for sure who will come out of this conference as the victor. I said it before the season, and I'll say it again; there will be NO Big XII team in the College Football Playoff this season. I don't think there is a strong enough team in the Big XII, and it seems like they're all going to cannibalize each other fighting for the Conference Title. I picked the Sooners to own the Big XII at the beginning of the season, and they're tied for the conference lead at 2-0 with Baylor. The Bears have yet to play much competition, and their game against the Sooners is in Norman, so I don't think they will stay unbeaten for long. They team that keeps winning games but not many people are talking about though, is West Virginia. Skyler Howard and Shelton Gibson are leading one of the best passing attacks in the nation, averaging 318 yards per game. The Mountaineers have played a lot of close games, but the key is that they are winning those close games. I think they may be a team to watch the rest of the season, especially because they get TCU, Oklahoma and Baylor in Morgantown. I'll give the edge to the Sooners right now, but that may change by the time we get to November. Keep your eye on the Mountaineers.
The PAC-12
The dark horse has jumped into the spot light and has taken the College Football world by storm. I picked Stanford and UCLA, but I did express concern about Washington's ability to compete. Well I think it's safe to say that they really came to compete this year. The Huskies have a top 10 scoring offense (averaging 49.5 points per game) and a top 10 scoring defense (giving up only 14.2 points per game). Their last two weeks have been victories by a combined score of 114-27 against two of the PAC-12 powerhouses in Stanford and Oregon. There are still a lot of games left in the season, but if the Huskies keep playing at this level, they will be very tough to stop. A tricky road game to Salt Lake City sits a few weeks away, but other than that I don't see Washington having many issues until the Apple Cup against their rivals Washington State. Speaking of Wazzu, the Cougars are also unbeaten in conference play, but are not nearly as complete as the Huskies.
Down in the southern half of the conference, some puzzling teams are all tied atop the division. Arizona State, Utah and Colorado are all sitting at 2-1, and looking to win the South Division crown. All have dynamic offenses, but the back half of the schedules pose lots of different threats. All three still have to play each other, so we'll find out who can outlast in the South. I'm giving the edge to the Utes right now, because if they can handle a road trip to UCLA in a couple weeks, they could knock the Bruins out of contention. They have a tough home match-up with Washington, and have to travel to both ASU and Colorado, but they are probably the most consistent team of the three leaders. Colorado is my dark horse down South though. They stumbled last week against the Trojans, but can rebound against the Sun Devils this week and avoid Washington out of the North. Having ASU, UCLA, Wazzu and Utah all come to Boulder will be an advantage too, so watch out for the Buffs.
The SEC
The SEC looks to be a lock in the East, even with Tennessee stumbling this past weekend. Florida poses a threat because they avoid the Tide and A&M from the West, and no one knows if their game with LSU will be played or not at this point. Tennessee has another tough test with Bama coming up to Knoxville this Saturday, but after that they shouldn't have too many games to worry about. If they do fall to the Tide, Florida will have the lead in the conference, but the Vols have the head to head win, so if Florida drops one (rivalry game with Georgia or a trip to Arkansas) then Tennessee will be back in the driver seat.
On the West side, the Tide look to keep rolling, but the 4 week stretch of at Tennessee, home against A&M, BYE and then at LSU does not look friendly. The Aggies are undefeated, and pose the biggest threat to Alabama to take away the West Division crown. No matter what happens in Knoxville this week, all eyes will be focused on Tuscaloosa, AL next week as the Aggies come to Bryant-Denny Stadium looking for an upset. I'm still leaning towards Alabama, because it's nearly impossible to bet against them, but they will be truly tested over the next few weeks, and this will show who is the real powerhouse in the West. If Bama wins the West, they'll win the entire SEC. If Texas A&M win the West, a rematch with Tennessee could be dangerous.
The BIG 10
We'll start in the East because there is no way to ignore the dominance that has been shown by both Ohio State and Michigan. Both the Buckeyes and Wolverines have top 5 scoring offenses and defenses, causing all sorts of headaches for teams. The Wolverines got over the Wisconsin hurdle, and have a fairly manageable schedule until their showdown in Columbus. Road trips to East Lansing and Iowa City could be tricky, but probably won't play much of a factor. For the Buckeyes, the bulk of their schedule is just beginning. Their next 4 weeks pose a number of different threats as their schedule goes like this: at Wisconsin, at Penn State, home for a tricky Northwestern team, and then home again against the Huskers. Wisconsin and Nebraska are going to cause the most issues, but Penn State and Northwestern are never teams to overlook. The showdown in Madison will tell us a lot moving forward, especially because the Buckeyes didn't look the best (only 93 yards passing) against Indiana last week. Both Ohio State and Michigan look like they could hang with anyone in the nation, but I'll stick with the Buckeyes for now since the Big Game is in Columbus. You could honestly toss a coin on the East Division though.
Moving over to the West, a few teams still have a shot, but it will likely come down to Nebraska and Wisconsin. Iowa has fallen back to Earth and down into the pit of mediocrity where they kinda belong in my opinion (sorry, gotta bash the rivals), leading me to believe that they will not win either of their games against the Badgers or the Wolverines. However, both those games (and the Huskers') are in Iowa City, so you never really know. Back to the teams of Red & White, Wisconsin has really surprised me this year. I never have a problem trusting their strength on defense, but they have been incredible this season. They are only giving up 12.2 points per game, and have absolutely suffocated any and every run game that they have faced. However, with all that being said, I still think that thier schedule is a little too stacked for them to have a clean enough record to win the West Division. They have the potential to beat the Buckeyes this weekend, but if they don't, they will fall to 2-2 in the conference with quite a bit of ground to make up. So, with Iowa and Wisconsin's schedules consuming their conference records, Nebraska still remains my favorite (I have un-biased reasons coming up). The Huskers have a favorable schedule, and although they have to travel to both Wisconsin and Ohio State, the brutality of their schedules could provide an advantage for the Huskers. The Badgers will becoming off of a two week stretch of Ohio State, and then an away game at their rival Iowa. I already talked about Ohio State's schedule above, so look for the wear and tear to play a factor. Nebraska can still win the West without beating Wisconsin, but if the Huskers can get the head to head, they will have no problem finishing out their schedule for the West Division crown. I'm still taking my Huskers out West in the BIG 10!
I hope you all enjoyed my conference update! Please let me know if you have any teams you'd like me to analyze or something else you'd like to see on my blog! Don't forget to sign your email up to receive notifications for all my posts. Thanks for reading and GO BIG RED!!
#CollegeFootballKnowItAll
Alex Fernando
Saturday, October 8, 2016
Week 6 Predictions
Hey everyone! I hope you've all had a great week and are ready for more football! My Huskers are on a much needed BYE week, but we still have a great slate of games to watch, including a couple of important match-ups down in the SEC. There are also a number of rivalry games this weekend, so let's get to the picks! Enjoy!
Iowa at Minnesota (Battle for the Floyd of Rosedale)
For those of you outside of the BIG 10, this is a great rivalry between the two schools, especially because the prize is a 98 lbs. bronze Pig! These two BIG 10 rivals square off in Minneapolis at 11 am on Saturday, and both are looking to get back on track after tough losses last week. The Gophers lost a close game to Penn State, and Iowa was once again stunned at home by a team they probably should have beaten in Northwestern. Neither team has looked very impressive through the first five weeks, especially when you consider the competition they have played. Iowa's consistency has dropped drastically from a year ago, and it starts up front with the offensive line. So far this season, Senior QB CJ Bethard has been sacked 14 times through only 5 games. Last year Iowa only gave up 29 sacks total throughout the season. Plus, their run game has been very lack-luster. Last year, the Hawkeyes were averaging over 180 yards rushing per game, this year, that average has dropped to just over 140. Plus, their average Time of Possession is down by over 2 minutes from last season. Minnesota on the other hand has increased their TOP average from last year by nearly 3 minutes. The Gophers are also averaging 228 on the ground per game and 211 through the air. I expect those numbers to drop as Iowa is probably the best defense they've faced so far this year, but the Hawkeyes are still giving up over 180 yards on average in each category. It's always hard to pick on a rivalry game, especially with both teams looking to get back on track in conference play, but I'm going with the home team in this one. I'm betting on a little bit closer of a game, but I think that if Minnesota can keep Iowa's run game contained, and bump up their TOP, they can come away with the victory. Plus the home team has won this game each time over the past 3 years, so look for the crowd to be a factor. Gophers win the Pig 28-23.
Maryland at Penn State
Another chapter in this hated rivalry is set to take place out in Happy Valley this weekend. Penn State may hold the all time series with an impressive 36-2-1 stat line, but since the Terps have joined the BIG 10, two 1-point games have decided the victor over the past couple years. Maryland has looked impressive so far against their lesser opponents this year, averaging over 43 points per game while giving up only 14, but once again, they have yet to face a quality opponent. Penn State has been a different story since they have played some tougher opponents. They have had a lot of close games apart from their blowout loss to the Wolverines, and are coming off of an Overtime thriller with the Gophers. I expect "Linebacker U" to bring the Terps' offense down a couple pegs to make this a little closer game. Oddly enough, the big thing to watch in this game is Maryland's ground attack. They are averaging 300 yards rushing per game, and the Nittany Lions are giving up an average of 216 yards rushing per game. Plus the Terps have an average TOP nearly 4 minutes ahead of the Nittany Lions. Penn State's offense has really struggled, and although they average 256 yards passing per game, Sophomore QB Trace McSorley is only completing 58.9% of his passes and has a 6:3 TD to Interception ratio. One big thing Penn State has going for them is special teams, because they have probably the most formidable kicker in the history of football! I have never seen a kicker as determined to make the tackle as the 258 lbs. Joey Julius is. His hits on kickoffs are some of my favorite highlights to watch, so Maryland better think twice before they try to return any kicks! Once again, rivalry games are hard to peg, but I think Maryland's offense might be too much for Penn State. We'll see if the Terps rise to the challenge against what is probably their strongest opponent so far this season. I'll go with Maryland in a 31-27 victory.
Texas vs. #20 Oklahoma (Red River Rivalry)
Since they shocked the Irish in the opening weekend, Texas (and Notre Dame) have more or less fallen off the map. They've lost back to back games to Cal and Oklahoma State, even with a BYE week in between. Oklahoma is trying to salvage the rest of their season after starting 1-2 with losses to Houston and Ohio State. Nationally, this game does not carry as much weight as it usually does, but for the Big XII Conference, this is a big one. Baylor and West Virginia are leading the conference right now, but there's no clear favorite in my opinion. The Big XII is extremely wide open, but Texas is a step behind since they have dropped 1 conference game already. OU pulled out a key win against the Horned Frogs last week, giving them a step up. Looking into the Red River Rivalry, I don't know where to start. Both teams move the ball well and have good play-makers on offense, but both teams cannot stop anyone on defense. Kind of typical for Big XII teams, but when both teams give up nearly 430 yards and over 35 points per game, you just know it's going to be a shootout. That's when you go look at the QBs. Texas is working with a Freshman under center, while occasionally bringing in the big Senior Tyrone Swoopes to run the ball (he has 5 rushing TDs so far this season). Oklahoma is a little more set at the QB spot as Baker Mayfield looks continue his impressive start to the season where he's already responsible for 11 touchdowns (9 passing & 2 rushing). Anyone could figure out that OU has the advantage when looking at the QB position, and if I were in a shootout, I would want Mayfield over Buechele. I'll go with the Sooners in a high-scoring, high-energy, high-stakes game down south. Oklahoma 48, Texas 35.
#25 Virginia Tech at #17 North Carolina
One of two top 25 match-ups in the ACC this weekend, the Hokies travel to Chapel Hill to take on the red hot Tar Heels. UNC have won 4 straight since their opening week loss to Georgia, including two close, 4th quarter, game winning drives to beat Pitt and Florida State. Junior QB Mitch Trubisky has been incredible so far this season, completing 76% of his passes, and posting a 13:0 TD to Interception ratio. Virginia Tech's numbers on defense look impressive, but they haven't played much competition outside of Tennessee, and they gave up quite a few yards and 45 points in that game. If this one is going to be close, it's going to be a shootout. Both teams are averaging 40 points per game, and UNC's defense has given up quite a few yards, especially on the ground. This plays well for the Hokies since they are averaging nearly 200 on the ground per game, and the Tar Heels give up an average of 236. I think UNC will win this one, mostly because of Trubisky. There are not many QBs playing at his level, and I don't think Virginia Tech's defense will be able to slow him down. This one will have quite a few points though! Tar Heels 48, Hokies 31.
Indiana at #2 Ohio State
Last year, this was one of my big upset picks, and the Buckeyes came away with a narrow 34-27 victory late in the 4th. That was out in Bloomington, but this year, it's in the Horseshoe. Indiana is playing at a much better level than previous years, especially on the defensive side of the ball. New Defensive Coordinator Tom Allen has the Hoosier defense posting some impressive numbers. They are only giving up 140 yards on the ground per game, which has dropped drastically from the nearly 200 they gave up a year ago. Again, there's still a lot of growth to be had if Indiana is ever going to compete in the BIG 10, but they can definitely cause some headaches. This could be a bit of a trap game for the Buckeyes as they have a big road trip to the Badgers lined up for next week, so they may overlook this one a bit. I don't think this will be the upset year for Indiana, but I think they'll be a little closer than the 28 point spread. JT Barrett and company shouldn't have many issues scoring points, but Ohio State's young defense will be tested with another good offensive attack. I'm sticking with the Buckeyes, 49-28.
#9 Tennessee at #8 Texas A&M
The Vols travel to College Station to take on the Aggies, hoping to continue their magical season of 4th quarter comebacks. However, one key member of their offense will be missing for this game, and that is Junior RB Jalen Hurd. This could slow down the Vols productivity on offense, as they are averaging nearly 175 yards rushing per game. Without Hurd, Joshua Dobbs will have to step up and make some big plays. It's hard to pick against Tennessee with all of their recent success, and it makes it even harder when we don't know if Myles Garrett will be playing for the Aggies. Garrett is one of the best pass rushers in the country, and A&M are also missing an offensive lineman and two big receivers. A&M's injuries put the weight on Trevor Knight's shoulders, making a great battle between two dynamic, dual-threat QBs. Both offenses have a lot of weapons, but revolve on the QB play. Both QBs are experienced, and have played in a few big games. It's hard to pick on a game where the teams are so evenly matched, and evenly injured, but I'm going with Tennessee in some more 4th Quarter magic. Vols 38-35.
#21 Colorado at USC
This is an interesting game because I don't think anyone would ever believed that the Buffaloes would be ranked walking into a match-up with the Trojans. Nonetheless, Colorado is ranked, and honestly (really dislike saying this) they are playing some really good football. They nearly upset the Trojans last year, and they have proven this year that they are not the normal pushover people think of them as. The Buffs are averaging over 530 yards per game and 43.2 points per game on offense. Defensively, they are giving up under 150 yards both passing and rushing. Now the Trojans have been struggling, but they are no pushover either. They have struggled to produce many points, but have the talent to put up big numbers. They have a lot of talented receivers, so look for them to test Colorado deep. The only loss Colorado has this season, is to the very talented, very powerful Michigan Wolverines. USC's talent pool is much like that of the Maize and Blue, so the Buffs will have to be sharp if they want to come out of L.A. with an upset. I think that Colorado's QB Sefo Liufau is the difference in this game, because Jalen Hurts ran for two TDs against them in the opener. Sefo is very good once he gets out of the pocket, and when passing, doesn't make many bad choices (71.1% completion rating and 0 interceptions so far this season). If he can go full speed for this game, I think Colorado comes away with the W. Buffalo 35, Trojans 23.
#5 Washington at Oregon
Washington really impressed me last week by absolutely demolishing Stanford. Oregon has really fallen off after losing 3 in a row. However, this is an interesting rivalry game in the PAC-12 North because Oregon has won 12 straight games over the Huskies. Autzen Stadium is never an easy place to play, and you can never hold down the Ducks for long. I expect Oregon's defense to be a focal point in this game, because they have not done much to hinder opposing offenses yet this year. Jake Browning has the Husky offense humming, and I think he'll have a field day down in Eugene. Look for the Ducks to be bothersome early on, but they won't be able to get Freeman going against Washington's strong front seven, and that forces the game to be won by Dakota Prukop's arm. Washington flips the script and wins a big rivalry game up in the Pacific Northwest. Huskies 40, Ducks 20.
#1 Alabama at #16 Arkansas
This game will be a classic slug match between two power SEC teams. The Hogs are on the rise, only dropping one to the Aggies so far this year, and their offense has been hitting on all cylinders. Junior QB Austin Allen has been very impressive this season, completing nearly 68% of his passes and posting an impressive 12:2 TD to Interception ratio. Usually the Razorbacks are known for their power run game, but they're only averaging 197 on the ground per game compared to their nearly 250 yards passing. Bama's defense is never easy to move the ball on, as they only allow 69 yards rushing per game and only give up an average of 13 points. On offense for the Tide, star Freshman QB Jalen Hurts will cause lots of headaches for Arkansas' defense. Hurts has thrown for nearly 1000 yards already, and has rushed for nearly 300 while posting up 10 total TDs. Since the Razorbacks had a tough time with Trevor Knight a couple of weeks ago, look for Hurts to have a big game. Hogs keep it close for a while, but the Tide Rolls with a 35-24 victory. This game has upset potential though being away from Bryant-Denny Stadium.
#23 Florida State at #10 Miami
Arch rivals in the ACC showdown as Hurricane Matthew dies down in South Beach. It will be hard to focus on a football game with all of the outside issues going on, and I definitely send prayers to all those affected by the devastating storm. Looking at the football game, this will be a tough one to pick. Miami has looked impressive through their 4-0 start, but they have yet to play very tough competition. The Seminoles have struggled this season, dropping two big games to Louisville and UNC, falling to 0-2 in the conference. Both offenses are putting up impressive numbers, including an average of over 40 points per game. FSU is averaging 508 yards per game and Miami is averaging 474 in addition to all the points. The big issues have been on defense since the 'Noles are giving up over 35 points per game and nearly 440 yards per game. I don't think they'll be able to stop the Hurricane's offense, and with the recent weather, it could be tough to score points. I was expecting a shoot out, but again the weather may cause some issues. I'm still not entirely convinced on Miami, but I think Brad Kaaya's experience will allow him to outplay Deondre Francois (who is still having an impressive Freshman year). I'll stick with the Hurricanes to upset their rivals in a close one. Miami 31, FSU 30.
I hope you all enjoyed my picks for the week, and have a fun weekend of football! Stay Safe on the East Coast and GO BIG RED!!
#CollegeFootballKnowItAll
Alex Fernando
Iowa at Minnesota (Battle for the Floyd of Rosedale)
For those of you outside of the BIG 10, this is a great rivalry between the two schools, especially because the prize is a 98 lbs. bronze Pig! These two BIG 10 rivals square off in Minneapolis at 11 am on Saturday, and both are looking to get back on track after tough losses last week. The Gophers lost a close game to Penn State, and Iowa was once again stunned at home by a team they probably should have beaten in Northwestern. Neither team has looked very impressive through the first five weeks, especially when you consider the competition they have played. Iowa's consistency has dropped drastically from a year ago, and it starts up front with the offensive line. So far this season, Senior QB CJ Bethard has been sacked 14 times through only 5 games. Last year Iowa only gave up 29 sacks total throughout the season. Plus, their run game has been very lack-luster. Last year, the Hawkeyes were averaging over 180 yards rushing per game, this year, that average has dropped to just over 140. Plus, their average Time of Possession is down by over 2 minutes from last season. Minnesota on the other hand has increased their TOP average from last year by nearly 3 minutes. The Gophers are also averaging 228 on the ground per game and 211 through the air. I expect those numbers to drop as Iowa is probably the best defense they've faced so far this year, but the Hawkeyes are still giving up over 180 yards on average in each category. It's always hard to pick on a rivalry game, especially with both teams looking to get back on track in conference play, but I'm going with the home team in this one. I'm betting on a little bit closer of a game, but I think that if Minnesota can keep Iowa's run game contained, and bump up their TOP, they can come away with the victory. Plus the home team has won this game each time over the past 3 years, so look for the crowd to be a factor. Gophers win the Pig 28-23.
Maryland at Penn State
Another chapter in this hated rivalry is set to take place out in Happy Valley this weekend. Penn State may hold the all time series with an impressive 36-2-1 stat line, but since the Terps have joined the BIG 10, two 1-point games have decided the victor over the past couple years. Maryland has looked impressive so far against their lesser opponents this year, averaging over 43 points per game while giving up only 14, but once again, they have yet to face a quality opponent. Penn State has been a different story since they have played some tougher opponents. They have had a lot of close games apart from their blowout loss to the Wolverines, and are coming off of an Overtime thriller with the Gophers. I expect "Linebacker U" to bring the Terps' offense down a couple pegs to make this a little closer game. Oddly enough, the big thing to watch in this game is Maryland's ground attack. They are averaging 300 yards rushing per game, and the Nittany Lions are giving up an average of 216 yards rushing per game. Plus the Terps have an average TOP nearly 4 minutes ahead of the Nittany Lions. Penn State's offense has really struggled, and although they average 256 yards passing per game, Sophomore QB Trace McSorley is only completing 58.9% of his passes and has a 6:3 TD to Interception ratio. One big thing Penn State has going for them is special teams, because they have probably the most formidable kicker in the history of football! I have never seen a kicker as determined to make the tackle as the 258 lbs. Joey Julius is. His hits on kickoffs are some of my favorite highlights to watch, so Maryland better think twice before they try to return any kicks! Once again, rivalry games are hard to peg, but I think Maryland's offense might be too much for Penn State. We'll see if the Terps rise to the challenge against what is probably their strongest opponent so far this season. I'll go with Maryland in a 31-27 victory.
Texas vs. #20 Oklahoma (Red River Rivalry)
Since they shocked the Irish in the opening weekend, Texas (and Notre Dame) have more or less fallen off the map. They've lost back to back games to Cal and Oklahoma State, even with a BYE week in between. Oklahoma is trying to salvage the rest of their season after starting 1-2 with losses to Houston and Ohio State. Nationally, this game does not carry as much weight as it usually does, but for the Big XII Conference, this is a big one. Baylor and West Virginia are leading the conference right now, but there's no clear favorite in my opinion. The Big XII is extremely wide open, but Texas is a step behind since they have dropped 1 conference game already. OU pulled out a key win against the Horned Frogs last week, giving them a step up. Looking into the Red River Rivalry, I don't know where to start. Both teams move the ball well and have good play-makers on offense, but both teams cannot stop anyone on defense. Kind of typical for Big XII teams, but when both teams give up nearly 430 yards and over 35 points per game, you just know it's going to be a shootout. That's when you go look at the QBs. Texas is working with a Freshman under center, while occasionally bringing in the big Senior Tyrone Swoopes to run the ball (he has 5 rushing TDs so far this season). Oklahoma is a little more set at the QB spot as Baker Mayfield looks continue his impressive start to the season where he's already responsible for 11 touchdowns (9 passing & 2 rushing). Anyone could figure out that OU has the advantage when looking at the QB position, and if I were in a shootout, I would want Mayfield over Buechele. I'll go with the Sooners in a high-scoring, high-energy, high-stakes game down south. Oklahoma 48, Texas 35.
#25 Virginia Tech at #17 North Carolina
One of two top 25 match-ups in the ACC this weekend, the Hokies travel to Chapel Hill to take on the red hot Tar Heels. UNC have won 4 straight since their opening week loss to Georgia, including two close, 4th quarter, game winning drives to beat Pitt and Florida State. Junior QB Mitch Trubisky has been incredible so far this season, completing 76% of his passes, and posting a 13:0 TD to Interception ratio. Virginia Tech's numbers on defense look impressive, but they haven't played much competition outside of Tennessee, and they gave up quite a few yards and 45 points in that game. If this one is going to be close, it's going to be a shootout. Both teams are averaging 40 points per game, and UNC's defense has given up quite a few yards, especially on the ground. This plays well for the Hokies since they are averaging nearly 200 on the ground per game, and the Tar Heels give up an average of 236. I think UNC will win this one, mostly because of Trubisky. There are not many QBs playing at his level, and I don't think Virginia Tech's defense will be able to slow him down. This one will have quite a few points though! Tar Heels 48, Hokies 31.
Indiana at #2 Ohio State
Last year, this was one of my big upset picks, and the Buckeyes came away with a narrow 34-27 victory late in the 4th. That was out in Bloomington, but this year, it's in the Horseshoe. Indiana is playing at a much better level than previous years, especially on the defensive side of the ball. New Defensive Coordinator Tom Allen has the Hoosier defense posting some impressive numbers. They are only giving up 140 yards on the ground per game, which has dropped drastically from the nearly 200 they gave up a year ago. Again, there's still a lot of growth to be had if Indiana is ever going to compete in the BIG 10, but they can definitely cause some headaches. This could be a bit of a trap game for the Buckeyes as they have a big road trip to the Badgers lined up for next week, so they may overlook this one a bit. I don't think this will be the upset year for Indiana, but I think they'll be a little closer than the 28 point spread. JT Barrett and company shouldn't have many issues scoring points, but Ohio State's young defense will be tested with another good offensive attack. I'm sticking with the Buckeyes, 49-28.
#9 Tennessee at #8 Texas A&M
The Vols travel to College Station to take on the Aggies, hoping to continue their magical season of 4th quarter comebacks. However, one key member of their offense will be missing for this game, and that is Junior RB Jalen Hurd. This could slow down the Vols productivity on offense, as they are averaging nearly 175 yards rushing per game. Without Hurd, Joshua Dobbs will have to step up and make some big plays. It's hard to pick against Tennessee with all of their recent success, and it makes it even harder when we don't know if Myles Garrett will be playing for the Aggies. Garrett is one of the best pass rushers in the country, and A&M are also missing an offensive lineman and two big receivers. A&M's injuries put the weight on Trevor Knight's shoulders, making a great battle between two dynamic, dual-threat QBs. Both offenses have a lot of weapons, but revolve on the QB play. Both QBs are experienced, and have played in a few big games. It's hard to pick on a game where the teams are so evenly matched, and evenly injured, but I'm going with Tennessee in some more 4th Quarter magic. Vols 38-35.
#21 Colorado at USC
This is an interesting game because I don't think anyone would ever believed that the Buffaloes would be ranked walking into a match-up with the Trojans. Nonetheless, Colorado is ranked, and honestly (really dislike saying this) they are playing some really good football. They nearly upset the Trojans last year, and they have proven this year that they are not the normal pushover people think of them as. The Buffs are averaging over 530 yards per game and 43.2 points per game on offense. Defensively, they are giving up under 150 yards both passing and rushing. Now the Trojans have been struggling, but they are no pushover either. They have struggled to produce many points, but have the talent to put up big numbers. They have a lot of talented receivers, so look for them to test Colorado deep. The only loss Colorado has this season, is to the very talented, very powerful Michigan Wolverines. USC's talent pool is much like that of the Maize and Blue, so the Buffs will have to be sharp if they want to come out of L.A. with an upset. I think that Colorado's QB Sefo Liufau is the difference in this game, because Jalen Hurts ran for two TDs against them in the opener. Sefo is very good once he gets out of the pocket, and when passing, doesn't make many bad choices (71.1% completion rating and 0 interceptions so far this season). If he can go full speed for this game, I think Colorado comes away with the W. Buffalo 35, Trojans 23.
#5 Washington at Oregon
Washington really impressed me last week by absolutely demolishing Stanford. Oregon has really fallen off after losing 3 in a row. However, this is an interesting rivalry game in the PAC-12 North because Oregon has won 12 straight games over the Huskies. Autzen Stadium is never an easy place to play, and you can never hold down the Ducks for long. I expect Oregon's defense to be a focal point in this game, because they have not done much to hinder opposing offenses yet this year. Jake Browning has the Husky offense humming, and I think he'll have a field day down in Eugene. Look for the Ducks to be bothersome early on, but they won't be able to get Freeman going against Washington's strong front seven, and that forces the game to be won by Dakota Prukop's arm. Washington flips the script and wins a big rivalry game up in the Pacific Northwest. Huskies 40, Ducks 20.
#1 Alabama at #16 Arkansas
This game will be a classic slug match between two power SEC teams. The Hogs are on the rise, only dropping one to the Aggies so far this year, and their offense has been hitting on all cylinders. Junior QB Austin Allen has been very impressive this season, completing nearly 68% of his passes and posting an impressive 12:2 TD to Interception ratio. Usually the Razorbacks are known for their power run game, but they're only averaging 197 on the ground per game compared to their nearly 250 yards passing. Bama's defense is never easy to move the ball on, as they only allow 69 yards rushing per game and only give up an average of 13 points. On offense for the Tide, star Freshman QB Jalen Hurts will cause lots of headaches for Arkansas' defense. Hurts has thrown for nearly 1000 yards already, and has rushed for nearly 300 while posting up 10 total TDs. Since the Razorbacks had a tough time with Trevor Knight a couple of weeks ago, look for Hurts to have a big game. Hogs keep it close for a while, but the Tide Rolls with a 35-24 victory. This game has upset potential though being away from Bryant-Denny Stadium.
#23 Florida State at #10 Miami
Arch rivals in the ACC showdown as Hurricane Matthew dies down in South Beach. It will be hard to focus on a football game with all of the outside issues going on, and I definitely send prayers to all those affected by the devastating storm. Looking at the football game, this will be a tough one to pick. Miami has looked impressive through their 4-0 start, but they have yet to play very tough competition. The Seminoles have struggled this season, dropping two big games to Louisville and UNC, falling to 0-2 in the conference. Both offenses are putting up impressive numbers, including an average of over 40 points per game. FSU is averaging 508 yards per game and Miami is averaging 474 in addition to all the points. The big issues have been on defense since the 'Noles are giving up over 35 points per game and nearly 440 yards per game. I don't think they'll be able to stop the Hurricane's offense, and with the recent weather, it could be tough to score points. I was expecting a shoot out, but again the weather may cause some issues. I'm still not entirely convinced on Miami, but I think Brad Kaaya's experience will allow him to outplay Deondre Francois (who is still having an impressive Freshman year). I'll stick with the Hurricanes to upset their rivals in a close one. Miami 31, FSU 30.
I hope you all enjoyed my picks for the week, and have a fun weekend of football! Stay Safe on the East Coast and GO BIG RED!!
#CollegeFootballKnowItAll
Alex Fernando
Tuesday, October 4, 2016
Week 5 Reflection
Another great weekend of football is in the books, and the rankings have been shuffled up quite a bit. I'll be the first to admit that I have not been very accurate on some of my picks so far this season, especially last week. Hopefully I can improve during the second half of the season, but either way, that's the beauty of College Football!! I don't think anyone could have predicted how this season has gone thus far. Some teams have really surprised me, and others have puzzled me with their uncommon starts. I'm excited to see how conference play progresses over the next couple weeks. Today's post will focus on my reflection of the Husker game against Illinois this past weekend, enjoy!
I think everyone can agree that this BYE week is very much needed. After a tough fought, 31-16 victory over the Illini, Nebraska remains undefeated at 5-0, but very beaten up as a number of key players have gone down with injuries the past couple weeks. I'm thankful for the Huskers' deep receiving corps, because a number of Tommy's weapons have been sidelined recently. Leading receiver Alonzo Moore did not suit up for Saturday's game against Illinois, and both Cethan Carter and Jordan Westerkamp left Saturday's game with injuries and did not return. Starting Guard Tanner Farmer did not suit up as well, and RB Devine Ozigbo also left the game and did not return on Saturday. With all these injuries, and a tough BIG 10 road schedule coming up, I really hope this BYE week provides our guys the rest they need.
Moving into my analysis of the game, we'll start with the defense. I thought the Blackshirts played very well throughout the game, only allowing a couple of big plays. I expected Wes Lunt to make some good throws and scramble out of the pocket on occasion, but for the most part, he was very well contained, and my good buddy Freedom even brought him down for a sack in the first quarter. The Illini used a lot of quick routes and short passes, so applying pressure was tough, especially on a Senior QB. Overall, the defense only allowed 270 total yards of offense, and held the Illini offense to 2/9 on third down conversions. The Blackshirts failed to get any turnovers though, first time all year. If they can force enough punts, that's not a deal-breaking stat in my opinion, but turnovers always help. My biggest issue with the defense however, was tackling. Nebraska consistently missed tackles or failed to wrap up hard and bring guys to the ground, allowing for much bigger gains. Plus, on Illinois' lone Touchdown, their running back broke a couple of tackles on his way to the endzone. Wrapping up has seemed to have gotten worse for the Blackshirts over recent weeks, so look for that to be a point of emphasis during the BYE week. All things considered a very good performance by the defense, but they need to finish plays and make tackles in the open field if they want to compete in the BIG 10 moving forward.
On the offensive side of the ball, for the first 3/4 of the game, they seemed very flat. There was no creativity, no energy, and most importantly, not very many points! Nebraska only scored 10 points through the first three quarters, and seemed to be running up against a brick wall. Illinois' defensive line is easily the best and most athletic front four Nebraska has faced all season, but as I watched throughout the game, it seemed as though our offensive line was getting knocked two yards into the backfield on every play. The Huskers were not able to move the ball very well during the first half, apart from the opening drive, and they often stalled just after crossing the 50. Two dumb turnovers did not help their case as Mikale Wilbon fumbled on a drive that was working its way into the 20, and Tommy threw a very poor pass directly to an Illini defender later in the game. Tommy has played very well, and completed nearly 70% of his passes on Saturday, but he had a lot of help from his receivers. He was under pressure and had to scramble for most of the game, but there were a number of throws that were not the easiest to catch. The most memorable is Sam Cotton's reaching grab up and behind him as Tommy floated it away as he was taken down in the backfield. Moving forward Tommy will still need to work on his accuracy if he's going to get by some of the tougher defenses like Wisconsin and Ohio State. His line will need to give him some better protection to start though. Moving into the 4th Quarter, it was like watching an entirely different game! Nebraska had no problem pushing the Illini defense around, no problems moving the ball, and no problems scoring! After their 21-0 fourth quarter on Saturday, Nebraska has now out scored opponents 78-6 in the final 15 minutes of the game. As much as I would love to see more points throughout the game, if you're rocking a scoring margin like that in one quarter alone, I have no issues with the Huskers waiting until the 4th. It's frustrating to see teams hang around, but this also shows the work ethic of this team, and the trust in the coaching staff that everyone has. The run game struggled all day long, but they kept trying it, and were able to overpower the Illini in the fourth quarter and run wild. The system is working well, the players are playing at a much higher level, and when you close out a game with a 21-0 route, you're doing something right. Some people might be concerned that we're not blowing teams out right away with the offensive power we have, but sometimes it just takes some time to wear a team down. A little more effort in blocking up front and tackling on the defense, and I really think Nebraska has a shot at competing for a BIG 10 Championship! GO BIG RED!
#CollegeFootballKnowItAll
Alex Fernando
I think everyone can agree that this BYE week is very much needed. After a tough fought, 31-16 victory over the Illini, Nebraska remains undefeated at 5-0, but very beaten up as a number of key players have gone down with injuries the past couple weeks. I'm thankful for the Huskers' deep receiving corps, because a number of Tommy's weapons have been sidelined recently. Leading receiver Alonzo Moore did not suit up for Saturday's game against Illinois, and both Cethan Carter and Jordan Westerkamp left Saturday's game with injuries and did not return. Starting Guard Tanner Farmer did not suit up as well, and RB Devine Ozigbo also left the game and did not return on Saturday. With all these injuries, and a tough BIG 10 road schedule coming up, I really hope this BYE week provides our guys the rest they need.
Moving into my analysis of the game, we'll start with the defense. I thought the Blackshirts played very well throughout the game, only allowing a couple of big plays. I expected Wes Lunt to make some good throws and scramble out of the pocket on occasion, but for the most part, he was very well contained, and my good buddy Freedom even brought him down for a sack in the first quarter. The Illini used a lot of quick routes and short passes, so applying pressure was tough, especially on a Senior QB. Overall, the defense only allowed 270 total yards of offense, and held the Illini offense to 2/9 on third down conversions. The Blackshirts failed to get any turnovers though, first time all year. If they can force enough punts, that's not a deal-breaking stat in my opinion, but turnovers always help. My biggest issue with the defense however, was tackling. Nebraska consistently missed tackles or failed to wrap up hard and bring guys to the ground, allowing for much bigger gains. Plus, on Illinois' lone Touchdown, their running back broke a couple of tackles on his way to the endzone. Wrapping up has seemed to have gotten worse for the Blackshirts over recent weeks, so look for that to be a point of emphasis during the BYE week. All things considered a very good performance by the defense, but they need to finish plays and make tackles in the open field if they want to compete in the BIG 10 moving forward.
On the offensive side of the ball, for the first 3/4 of the game, they seemed very flat. There was no creativity, no energy, and most importantly, not very many points! Nebraska only scored 10 points through the first three quarters, and seemed to be running up against a brick wall. Illinois' defensive line is easily the best and most athletic front four Nebraska has faced all season, but as I watched throughout the game, it seemed as though our offensive line was getting knocked two yards into the backfield on every play. The Huskers were not able to move the ball very well during the first half, apart from the opening drive, and they often stalled just after crossing the 50. Two dumb turnovers did not help their case as Mikale Wilbon fumbled on a drive that was working its way into the 20, and Tommy threw a very poor pass directly to an Illini defender later in the game. Tommy has played very well, and completed nearly 70% of his passes on Saturday, but he had a lot of help from his receivers. He was under pressure and had to scramble for most of the game, but there were a number of throws that were not the easiest to catch. The most memorable is Sam Cotton's reaching grab up and behind him as Tommy floated it away as he was taken down in the backfield. Moving forward Tommy will still need to work on his accuracy if he's going to get by some of the tougher defenses like Wisconsin and Ohio State. His line will need to give him some better protection to start though. Moving into the 4th Quarter, it was like watching an entirely different game! Nebraska had no problem pushing the Illini defense around, no problems moving the ball, and no problems scoring! After their 21-0 fourth quarter on Saturday, Nebraska has now out scored opponents 78-6 in the final 15 minutes of the game. As much as I would love to see more points throughout the game, if you're rocking a scoring margin like that in one quarter alone, I have no issues with the Huskers waiting until the 4th. It's frustrating to see teams hang around, but this also shows the work ethic of this team, and the trust in the coaching staff that everyone has. The run game struggled all day long, but they kept trying it, and were able to overpower the Illini in the fourth quarter and run wild. The system is working well, the players are playing at a much higher level, and when you close out a game with a 21-0 route, you're doing something right. Some people might be concerned that we're not blowing teams out right away with the offensive power we have, but sometimes it just takes some time to wear a team down. A little more effort in blocking up front and tackling on the defense, and I really think Nebraska has a shot at competing for a BIG 10 Championship! GO BIG RED!
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Alex Fernando
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