Tuesday, August 31, 2021

Week 0 Reflections

      Well football friends, despite the promise and hype of a new season, we have the same Husker football team... or possibly an even worse one. The Huskers opened up the 2021 campaign with a disturbingly familiar looking performance in a loss to Illinois. This post will break down my thoughts and analysis of the game. For new readers, I like to break this post into three sections: GOOD, EXPECTED and BAD. So, without further ado, let's take a look at Nebraska versus Illinois.


     The Huskers had a tremendous amount of both hype and hope behind them as they traveled to Champaign, IL for the season opener against conference foe Illinois, and some of us around the Cornhusker state probably sipped a little too much Kool-Aid. I will defend myself a bit though, as I was very weary of this team and did not have very high hopes on the season as a whole. But surely a team with a 4-year starter at QB, a now fairly established head coach and a variety of new talent could open the season with a performance that turns some heads. Especially when looking for revenge from last year and facing an Illini squad with a new coaching staff. However, those hopes were cut short quite quickly, especially after watching a veteran, team captain, attempt to field a punt from the two yard line, backup into his own endzone and then attempt to throw the ball out of the endzone while being tackled. That play really summed up a majority of the game for me, and the biggest takeaway is this team still has no clue what they're supposed to be doing on the field. Let's break this down a little bit more.


GOOD: There wasn't too much good to talk about in this game, but I want to give a big shout-out to the pass rush of the Blackshirts and Oliver Martin, the Junior WR. Starting with Martin, he was arguably the only bright spot on offense apart from Martinez's 75 yard TD run late in the third. The walk-on transfer racked up 103 yards on 6 catches and looks to be one of the favorite targets in this offense. I'm excited to see how he develops this season. Another development I'm excited for is the pass rush. I don't think Nebraska's had a decent pass rush since Randy Gregory was here in Lincoln, but what I saw up front from the D-line on Saturday really impressed me. The Blackshirts racked up 3 sacks and 9 tackles for loss. To put that in perspective, the Huskers have averaged 2 sacks per game during the Scott Frost years and only had 13 total last season. If the defense can keep pressure on opposing QBs, this could be a very fun unit to watch. The run defense was good as well, giving up just 167 on the ground compared to 285 last year versus the Illini. This unit is easily the strength of this team, and watching them dominate the line of scrimmage was very exciting. We haven't had a strong pass rush in a while!


EXPECTED: In all honesty, I fully expected this team to have some chemistry issues and look like they didn't know what to do for good chunks of the game. I was sad to see it was much more than the chunks I had imagined, but it has become very clear that Scott Frost does not know what to do as head coach with these players. They are consistently unprepared for their games and that was made even more clear when Frost said half of their game plan went out the window when the Illini lined up in a different defense than expected. This team has hit a bar lower than low in my opinion, and all the fingers need to be pointed at the man in charge. He has not developed the players on this team, he has not built the culture he promised and most importantly, he has not taken actionable steps to show this team is moving in the right direction. When Frost started his tenure at Nebraska, he wanted to run a fast-paced offense that pushed the tempo to keep the opposing defense off balance. Over his 3 seasons and now into his 4th, the number of plays per game have gone down, the total yardage and points per game by the offense have gone down, and last but not least, the turnovers are still a major issue. Scott Frost has a lot to fix if this team is going to show any signs of improvement.


BAD: My usual BAD category for Husker game reflections is the special teams, and there's no exception today. It was almost unbelievable watching each and every special teams unit screw up in so many ways each time they took the field. The easiest place to start is with Cam Taylor-Britt's horrendous attempt to field a punt at the two, run back into the endzone and attempt to throw the ball away when he realized he was about to get drilled, thus leading to a safety for the Illini. In addition to CTB just being flat out stupid, there's plenty of other blame to go around like how absolutely no other Husker player on the field attempted to block. Then we have the issue of the new punter hitting not one, but two punts under 30 yards. Then, the cherry on top was the All-BIG 10 Kicker (the only all-conference player in the Scott Frost era for the Huskers) mis two PATs. This special teams unit is easily one of the worst in all of football, and I say that with the 6th and 7th graders that I coach in mind. Clearly the analysts have not done their job and someone should really start focusing on coaching this area of the team. In addition to the tragedy that was special teams, we have the Husker offense, another kind of tragedy all on their own. There are so many places to start with this one, but my favorite is the center. Cam Jurgens is in his 3rd year at the position and still cannot snap the ball cleanly. The other linemen can't block, so there's a massive pass rush bearing down on a QB who doesn't move his feet when throwing the ball and regularly misses his receivers. The running backs have little room to operate, but even if they did, I doubt they could run North and South on the field if they had a compass. They don't hit the holes well when they are developed and key blocks are missed to spring them. Again, I acknowledge there are a lot of new faces and chemistry must be made, but execution on basic football functions is crucial for teams to have success. The Huskers still cannot run any sort of two minute drill and players are constantly missing blocks and/or out of place on the field. The talented backs and receivers who have been the talk of the town throughout all of fall camp rarely saw the ball due to an inability to get open and create space combined with Martinez's lack of ability to throw. This unit needs to figure things out quick because they are completely lost.


     I really did have a bad pit in my stomach about this game. A conference game on the road for your season opener is never a good match in my mind, and Brett Beilma has plenty of experience with beating Nebraska. The Huskers still aren't ready for their games, especially those against conference opponents who are ready to hit them in the mouth. The O-Line needs to block significantly better if this team has a chance at winning and the playmakers need the ball in their hands. Most importantly, the head coach needs to be prepared for different scenarios and actively adjust his game plan to counter and respond to what the opposing team is doing. Hopefully the Huskers can start piecing some of those things together before it is too late. Time to make something happen Frost.


Quick Hit Notes from around College Football:

- UCLA looks to be the dark horse I predicted them to be. The Bruins dominated Hawai'i 44-10 in their season opener, and with the talent on that roster, they could really make a run in the Pac-12. Keep an eye on this team throughout the season, they have a lot of offense.


#CFBKnowItAll

Alex Fernando

Thursday, August 12, 2021

Week 0 Predictions & 2021 Season Overview

      Hello College Football Fans, and welcome to the 2021 College Football Season! I am so excited to be back and writing for you all as we jump into (hopefully) a more normal year of football. For any new readers (or anyone who forgot), I do focus my blog on my beloved Huskers, but I always try to give my perspective and thoughts on the happenings from all of CFB around the nation. That is my mission as the College Football KnowItAll, so if there's ever a team or questions about the CFB landscape you'd like me to take a deep dive into, please leave a comment!

     This post will focus on the Week 0 games and my preview of how I think things will shake out this season for the different conferences. This is a bit of a special post as I was able to visit the stadium of one of my new favorite teams in CFB this past week (check out the photos below), the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers! Last year the Chanticleers of Coastal Carolina surprised everyone with an undefeated season out of the Sun belt, and are looking to repeat for a possible New Year's Six Bowl bid. Cincy took that spot last season and nearly upset Georgia in the Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl. There's a lot of good football coming up this season, and with all the different conference shuffle talks and a 12-team playoff on the horizon, this is bound to be a wild year. So kick back, read on and let's get you ready for the 2021 college football season!


Sun Belt Conference

The power of this conference sits with 3 primary teams; Coastal Carolina, Appalachian State and Louisiana. Louisiana is heavily favored in the West, and will be looking for their shot against Coastal Carolina after the Conference Championship game was cancelled due to Covid-19 last year. The Chanticleers were CFB's Cinderella team last year, so we'll see if they can repeat in the Sun Belt and hold off the usual kings from App State.

East Division: Coastal Carolina        West Division : Louisiana

Champion: Coastal Carolina Chanticleers


Conference USA

UAB is looking for their third conference title in 4 years, but UTSA nearly stole their West division crown last year and with Jeff Taylor in his second year at the helm, they are primed for a steal in 2021. In East Division, Marshall leads they way but FAU and WKU are looking for a boost from the transfer pool. I think the addition of N'Kosi Perry at QB will be a big help for the Owls. They have a tough schedule though, traveling to UAB and hosting both UTAP and Marshall on back to back weeks. The Heard have talent to replace, but should hold onto the top spot. This will be a fun battle to watch!

East Division: FAU                            West Division: UAB

Champion: UAB


Mid-American Conference

The East Division will be a blood bath in this conference. Ohio and Buffalo are my favorites to duke it out for the top spot, but Miami (OH) and Kent State aren't out of the mix. In the West, Northern Illinois is looking to get back to their old days of dominance, especially after a 0-6 display last season. Toledo and Ball State are the heavy favorites though, and the Cardinals are still red hot after upsetting Buffalo last year. Look for them to go back-to-back.

East Division: Ohio                            West Division: Ball State

Champion: Ball State


Mountain West Conference

It's always fun to watch these conference games mid week and late on Saturday nights, as the get pretty crazy. Boise State is always the dominant force in that conference, and looks to be once again as they break in a new head coach. Andy Avalos will get a harsh welcome home to Boise however as the Broncos face UCF, Oklahoma State and BYU for non-conference. Conference wise however, Wyoming looks to challenge them. The true threat lies in the West division however, as Nevada is a dark horse G6 Bowl Bid in my opinion. They have a lot of talent with the Wolfpack, led by Junior QB Carson Strong. Fresno State and San Jose State have had good runs recently, but I have the Wolfpack running wild this year.

Mountain Division: Boise State            West Division: Nevada

Champion: Nevada


American Athletic Conference

The Cincy Bearcats are head and shoulders above the rest of the competition in this conference. Cincy lost a close game to Georgia in the Peach Bowl last season after earning the G5 New Year's Six Bowl Bid. They'll be looking to repeat as they return nearly everyone from last year's squad, including one of the nation's best defenses and star QB Desmond Ridder. UCF now has Gus Malzahn at the helm, which should give them a bit more boost. The Knights were close to knocking off Cincy last year. SMU and ?Houston are in the chase as well, but I don't foresee any team overtaking Cincy.

Champion: Cincinnati


Big XII Conference

Despite the impending implosion of this conference, they still have some football to play this year. Texas is looking to get back in the mix of conference championship talks as Steve Sarkisian takes the helm. He'll have a tough road to deal with as Oklahoma and Iowa State lead the charge of this conference with tremendous depth. The Cyclones are another dark horse for the Playoffs, and their showdown with the Sooners in Norman will be a big one. However, I think OU and ISU will meet again in the Big XII Championship, because no one else in the conference has enough firepower to keep pace. There may be some potential upsets here and there, but I like the Cyclones to come out on top and make a push late in the season.

Champion: Iowa State


Pac-12 Conference:

The Pac-12 is often forgot about midway through the season once their top teams beat up on each other, but you can never take your eyes off those Pac-12 after dark games. The Ducks are favored to win the North, but have some sneaky challengers with Washington in it's second year under Jimmy Lake and Cal who returns star QB Chase Garbers and a very talented defense. Stanford is on the rise again and the Ducks always have a difficult time with them. Looking to the South, UCLA is my dark horse to win this division. Chip Kelley's squad lost all four of their games last year by 6 points or less. They'll have to navigate around crosstown rival USC, but there's potential for the bruins. Arizona State is the heavy favorite and they avoid the Ducks in cross conference play while also hosting the Trojans. Utah could jump in the mix, but I think the Sun Devils are where the focus should be. Lots of talent down in the desert this year.

North Division: Oregon                        South Division: Arizona State

Champion: Oregon


ACC:

This conference prediction is really about who will lose to Clemson in the title game, but it's fun to look around at who gives potential for some upsets. Obviously the Tigers plan to run the table again, and with DJ Uiagalelei at QB they shouldn't lose too much of a step from the departure of Trevor Lawrence. Elsewhere in the Atlantic Division, NC State and Boston College are always looking for upsets, and both return QBs with experience. Over in the Coastal Division, the Tar Heels and Hurricanes stand the best chance of challenging the Tigers. Neither of them would face Clemson until the ACC title game, so the showdown in Chapel Hill on October 16th will likely decide which way they're going. The Hurricanes are looking to improve as star QB D'Eriq King is healthy again and their defense is getting better. However, I've said it before and I'll say it again, Sam Howell is a BALLER. He has a few holes to replace with some of his weapons going to the NFL, but UNC doesn't lack for talent.

Atlantic Division: Clemson                    Coastal Division: North Carolina

Champion: Clemson


SEC:

The regular powerhouses will be on full display in the SEC, but there are a couple other teams to watch who could make a run for the Playoffs. Starting in the East Division, it will likely be a battle between Florida and Georgia for the division crown. The Gators threw a shoe (literally) at their shot at the playoffs last season, but with so much talent to replace, Georgia is the heavy favorite. The Bulldogs look to make a Playoff push with JT Daniels running the offense and a dominate defense. Also watch out for their stud receiver Arian Smith, he's an absolute speedster. The rest of the East is a step down, so barring any upsets the Bulldogs should roll. Over in the West, Alabama could be challenged a bit. Texas A&M was 1 spot away from the playoffs last season, and with a formidable defense they will not be easy to beat. They have to replace a lot of talent on offense however, so they'll have a steep learning curve. The Tide will look to roll yet again, but do have to travel to both the Swamp and Aggieland. LSU comes to Tuscaloosa and the Tigers get Florida and A&M at home. These three have the best shot in the West, but it's impossible to go against Nick Saben. Watch out for the Aggies though, this could get interesting.

East Division: Georgia                            West Division: Alabama

Champion: Alabama


BIG 10:

Ohio State is far ahead of anyone else in the BIG 10, but much like the ACC, it's fun to think about who will lose to them in Indianapolis in December. Out East, Penn State and Michigan are looking to challenge the Buckeyes more, but I think their biggest challenger in that division will be the Hoosiers of Indiana. Tom Allen's squad nearly knocked off the Buckeyes last season in the Horseshoe, and I think they will be a team to watch. Hopefully IU's star QB Michael Penix Jr. can return from an ACL tear and the defense can keep up its dominance from a year ago. Penn State will look to bounce back from a disappointing year and Michigan will look to finally beat its rivals. In the West Division, my hope is that the Huskers can wake up and actually challenge for something, but Wisconsin and Iowa should be the focal points. Northwestern has won 2 out of the last 3 division titles, but have a lot of talent to replace. Iowa is always a consistent team, but do have some talent issues on offense. They'll rely heavily on their defense. Wisconsin struggled with Covid last season and should be a much stronger force in 2021.

East Division: Ohio State                        West Division: Wisconsin

Champion: Ohio State


Game Predictions

UConn at Fresno State                 -    Bulldogs 30, Huskies 14

Hawai'i at UCLA                             -    Bruins 37, Warriors 21

UTEP at New Mexico State            -    Miners 31, Aggies 24


Nebraska at Illinois

The Huskers open up their season with a BIG 10 Conference Road game. To me, this is fairly terrifying and I really hope they surprise me this season. There's a lot of depth on defense for the Huskers, and with a strong showing last year I would expect Frost to rely on the Blackshirts as the strength of this team. Offensively there are so many question marks for both teams as Illinois makes it's debut under Bret Beilma, who has a good history against the Huskers. Nebraska returns an experienced offensive line and star QB Adrian Martinez, but the talent around him is all new. There's a lot of chemistry that still needs to be developed, so execution will be extremely important in this game. The Huskers turned the ball over 5 times to the Illini last season. They will need to take care of the rock if they want to have success this year. I'm nervous, but I'm taking my Huskers with a 31-27 victory. GO BIG RED!





Thank you for reading my predictions post and enjoy your GAMEDAY! College Football is back!

#CFBKnowItAll
Alex Fernando