Rivalry Week Predictions

      Happy Thanksgiving Football Fans! Today and this weekend is my favorite time of year as we have great food to eat, time with family and friends, and some of the best football we could ask for. There are some great NFL games to watch today, and College Football had the Egg Bowl last night and a full slate that starts today. This post will have my predictions on all the games you won't want to miss this weekend, but first let's give a quick recap of the tough loss in Madison for the Huskers last weekend.

    The Huskers yet again found a way to let the game slip away after they failed to do anything on offense following their big 4th quarter. The Huskers haven't scored in overtime since 2014 and despite a solid performance from Chubba Purdy who made his first start of the season. I've got my GOOD, EXPECTED and BAD breakdown below.

GOOD - Chubba Purdy. For a QB who has been sitting in the third string spot all season, battling injuries and taking very few practice reps, Purdy looked very good in his first start of 2023. He opened the game up with a Taylor Martinez type 55 yard TD run, then had a 58 yard pass to Jaylen Lloyd. He finished the game 15/24 (62.5%) for 169 yards with 1 TD and 1 interception on the last play of overtime that I don't blame him for. He also led the game in rushing with 102 and that aforementioned TD. There were a few throws that definitely made me nervous, but on the final drive in regulation for the Huskers he got them down into the red zone, but poor play calling didn't help him much after that. Excited to see what he can do against Iowa!

EXPECTED - Offense falling flat. On the first two drives, Nebraska racked up 151 yards with two big play touchdowns. Throughout the rest of the game and in overtime, the Huskers amassed just 213 total yards and 0 points. Emmett Johnson and Anthony Grant split touches, with 13 and 12 respectively, but neither were used to the level they should be. A few dropped passes and very poor blocking on the perimeter led to the offense stalling out quite quickly after the first quarter.

BAD - Game/Clock Management. Against Maryland, the Huskers could have won the game with a field goal and tried to go for a touchdown. Against Wisconsin, the Huskers could have won with a touchdown and went for a field goal. Chubba Purdy ran the ball down inside the Badger 30 yard line with about 90 seconds left and the Huskers didn't use one of their 3 timeouts until about 20 seconds left in the game. Absolutely HORRIBLE game and clock management by Matt Rhule over the last couple weeks, and I'll throw it back to the game management in Minnesota because we saw this issue at the beginning of the season. This is an issue that needs to be fixed immediately because the Huskers have loss 3 games due to poor game/clock management and that's all on Matt Rhule.

Week 12 Record: 17 - 5

Overall Record: 165 - 55

Rivalry Week Predictions:

UTSA at #23 Tulane

    The Roadrunners and the Green Wave square off in an American Conference duel with major implications on post season opportunities. Both teams are sitting at 7-0 in conference and the winner guarantees their spot in the conference title game. SMU is likely to await the winner as long as they take care of business against Navy. For the Roadrunners, they've won 7 straight and are averaging 34.1 points per game in that span. They're led by Senior QB, Frank Harris. He has yet to throw a pick in the month of November and only has 6 all season. His counterpart, Michael Pratt for Tulane, missed a few games early in the year, but has over 2,000 yards himself along with a 19 to 4 TD:INT ratio. It should be a good duel between these two, and the protection they have is the key factor to watch. UTSA ranks 5th in the nation with 39 sacks so far this season and Tulane isn't far behind with 30. Both teams also rank close with 20 sacks given up by UTSA and 19 sacks given up by Tulane. This should be a fun one to watch, but I'll take Tulane playing at home in a close one. I love the Roadrunners, but the Green Wave holds them off for a 31-28 victory.

Texas Tech at #7 Texas

    Despite numerous close calls, the Longhorns still have just 1 loss on the year from the Red River Rivalry. Texas will seal a Big XII Championship appearance in their final season as a conference member with a win, but don't discount the Red Raiders too quickly. Texas Tech as won 3 straight games, all 3 points or less. They've lost a few one score games, but would love nothing more than to knock off the rival Longhorns. I've been very high on this team for a few reasons. They've bought in well to 2nd year Head Coach Joey McGuire, and they have a powerful ground game with Tahj Brooks. Texas ranks 5th in rush defense on the year, allowing just 82 yards per game. Brooks has a big challenge ahead of him and will need some helpful breaks to win this game. The Red Raiders are -6 with turnovers this year, so they need a clean game of football to win this. Rivalry games are different though, and a win against Texas would be big for Texas Tech as they look to step into one of those top spots of the conference next year. I've been waiting for Texas to lose but I may have to wait one more week. I hope I'm wrong, but Texas gets revenge for last year with a 33-21 victory.

#16 Oregon State at #6 Oregon (The Civil War)

    The Beavers and Ducks meet for the final time (scheduled) as PAC-12 opponents. Oregon joins my Huskers in the BIG 10 next year and the Beavers will remain in what I have dubbed the 2-PAC with Washington State. This is one of the biggest games of the weekend as there's not just bragging rights on the line, but also Oregon's shot at the College Football Playoffs. The Beavers are going to ground and pound with Damien Martinez, hoping to lead to a deadly play action attack for DJ Uaigalelei. Their defense is not easy to move on as they rank 29th in total defense. The Ducks rank 16th (right behind Nebraska) and this unit often gets overlooked because of the tremendous success of the offense. Bo Nix is my Heisman favorite and he has this offense looking like the best in the nation. Their lowest point total this season was 33 in the loss against Washington, however, the Beavers actually rank 2nd in red zone efficiency scoring on 97.5% red zone drives. I'm excited to watch this game and I've got Oregon winning 31-27 behind a Heisman caliber performance from Bo Nix.

Texas A&M at #14 LSU ($)

    The Tigers have a Heisman player of their own in Jayden Daniels, who is arguably the best competition to Bo Nix. Texas A&M has been stout on defense for most of this season, but LSU's offense is not an easy one to slow down. Daniels has just under 3,600 yards passing with 35 TDs and just 4 picks. He's also added another 1,014 yards and 10 TDs on the ground as the Tigers' leading rusher. I think they will have too much offense for the Aggies to keep up with and the Tigers take care of this one 33-21.

#8 Alabama at Auburn (The Iron Bowl) ($)

    The Tide are ROLLIN' since that Week 2 loss to Texas at home, and could find their way into another playoff birth with a couple more wins. It starts against their arch rival, the Auburn Tigers. An Auburn team that lost at home last week to New Mexico State as a 26 point favorite (and made me miss a very nice payout on my sports bet). Not that I'm a vengeful person or anything, but I do think Bama should put up 50 in this game. Jalen Milroe should have another big day and start building his Heisman case for next year. Roll Tide as they prep for Georgia in the SEC Championship with a 40-14 tune up game against Auburn.

#15 Arizona at Arizona State (Duel in the Dessert: Battle for the Territorial Cup)

    The Wildcats have been my team to watch this season and with 5 straight wins (4 against ranked opponents), they are a dangerous team. Head Coach Jedd Fisch really has this team playing well and it all runs through redshirt freshman QB, Noah Fifita. He took over mid-season and has posted nearly 2,000 passing yards with 18 TDs and just 4 picks since. His favorite target is 6'5 Sophomore Tetairoa McMillan who has 976 yards and 9 TDs for the Wildcats. The Sun Devils have struggled in their first season under Kenny Dillingham, but they've had a few flashes with a big win against UCLA a couple weeks ago. It's a rivalry, so they'll play tough, but Beardown and give me the Wildcats in a 34-20 victory.

Washington State at #4 Washington (The Apple Cup)

    The Cougars are in serious danger of not going bowling after starting 4-0 this season, and they only way they can get to the post season is by upsetting their arch rivals on the road who are ranked #4 in the nation. The Huskies finally broke into the top 4 after jumping Florida State after their win against Oregon State on the road. Michael Penix Jr. is also in the Heisman conversations, and he'll look to put up big numbers against a Wazzu defense that ranks 94th in total defense. He'll be slinging it like usual, but also watch for Junior RB Dillon Johnson to have a big game for the Huskies. He was just 11 yards short of his 3rd straight 100+ yard game, so I think he runs wild in this one. Washington inches closer to they playoffs and wins the final Apple Cup as they are also moving to the BIG 10 and leaving Wazzu behind in the 2-PAC. Huskies 38, Cougars 20.

#5 Florida State at Florida (Sunshine Showdown)

    The 'Noles have lost star QB Jordan Travis for the season after a brutal leg injury last week, so the reigns are passed to Junior Tate Rodemaker. He'll make his first start on the road, in the Swamp, against a nasty Florida Team that nearly knocked off Missouri last week. The Gators have not had a stellar season, and Billy Napier's seat is certainly getting warm. However, ending Florida State's 17-game win streak and playoff hopes all in one day could cool things down a bit. They've lost 4 straight, but have battled well in each of those games, typically losing them late in the game. Ex-Badger QB Graham Mertz has renewed his career int he swamp, throwing for 2,903 yards with a fantastic 20:3 TD to INT ratio. He's got a number of weapons around him, and this team can put up more points than you think. Tate Rodemaker will need to play well, but the Seminole defense is my key factor. They need to pressure Graham Mertz and try to force turnovers. Mizzou was gashed by big plays last week, so look for them to get out to space quick. This could be a close one, but I still like Florida State to remain unbeaten. Seminoles win a tight one on the road and finish a perfect regular season with a 27-24 victory.

#24 Clemson at South Carolina

    The Tigers are back in the rankings after knocking off North Carolina last week, and now they turn their sights onto their rival South Carolina. The Gamecocks pulled off a 1 point victory to upset Clemson last year, but other than that this series has been dominated by the Tigers over the past decade. Both squads ar riding a 3-game win streak, but the Gamecocks are still in need of 1 more to go bowling. Statistically, the two QBs are very similar, but Rattler has more yards. This is when I start looking at some hidden stats and one thing I found that could be a factor in this game is penalties. South Carolina averages 7.5 penalties and almost 60 yards per game, which is double Clemson. In a rivalry game where things get chippy, penalties will be a big factor and I like Clemson to keep their cool. Tigers win on the road 26-21.

North Carolina at #22 NC State

    The Tar Heels' season has fallen apart since mid-October, but a win against their in-state rival to get to 9 wins is always a strong way to finish. The Wolfpack are riding a 4-game win streak, especially since Brennan Armstrong has been playing better. He's taken back over the starting reigns from MJ Morris and has 6 TDs (3 passing and 3 rushing) over the past two games. North Carolina's offense is all run through Drake Maye, who has nearly 3,400 yards with 22 TDs and just 7 picks. Unfortunately, his defense doesn't help much as they give up 26 points per game on average. A healthy ground attack behind Sophomore RB Omarion Hampton will keep them in it, but the Wolfpack defense will force turnovers, so give me NC State at home with a 30-24 victory.

Indiana at Purdue (Battle for the Old Oaken Bucket)

    The Boilermakers have struggled in their first season with Head Coach Troy Walters, but could end on a high note beating the rival Hoosiers for The Old Oaken Bucket, one of the oldest rivalry trophies in College Football. Both teams have lost 8 games this season, so it's really about bragging rights and the trophy. Indiana has been close in their last few games, but can never quite get over the hump. Purdue put up 49 on the Gophers two weeks ago, but typically scores around 14 in most games. The Boilermakers have won the last two in this series, but I think Indiana gets the win this year 31-21.

San Jose State at UNLV

    The Spartans may be 6-5, but they are in the mix for a trip to the Mountain West Championship if they knock off the conference leading Rebels of UNLV. If the Spartans win, there will be a 3-way tie atop the conference between these two teams and whoever wins the Air Force/Boise State matchup. Both of those teams have beaten the Spartans, but they would have the win over UNLV and the Rebels have beat Air Force but not played Boise State. Certainly would be some interesting chaos to sort out, but unfortunately for San Jose State, UNLV is looking to dominate this game. They don't necessarily stand out in any major categories, but they're a very well coached and consistent team. Rebels win and move onto the Mountain West Championship with a 34-17 performance.

Northwestern at Illinois

    Somehow, the Wildcats are bowl eligible after just winning 1 game last season and firing Pat Fitzgerald amid a hazing issue just a few weeks before the season. Illinois can become bowl eligible with a win at home. The crazy thing about both of these teams is that they easily could be 5-0 in their last 5 games, but couldn't quite finish them off and had some close losses. Classic BIG 10 West finish and this is a tricky game to predict. I'll give it to the home team because it seems every other BIG 10 West team will get to a bowl before Nebraska does. Illini 30, Wildcats 24.

Wisconsin at Minnesota (Battle for Paul Bunyan's Axe)

    Speaking of BIG 10 teams achieving bowl eligibility, the Gophers can book their post-season ticket, but it requires one more win against the Wisconsin Badgers. Wisconsin earned their 6th win against the Huskers last week, but Minnesota has dropped 3 straight and have a tough task ahead of them. Despite Wisconsin not being a very dangerous team this year, the Gophers have struggled to close out games. Tanner Mordecai woke up last week against the Huskers, coming back from injury and throwing for 160 and a TD while adding another 51 on the ground. Minnesota will struggle with him and I think the Badgers take the Axe. On Wisconsin as they win 16-7.

Virginia Tech at Virginia (Battle for the Commonwealth Cup)

    The Hokies have been up and down this season, but are 1 win away from a bowl game. Virginia only has 3 wins on the season, but one of those was a road win against #10 North Carolina, and they nearly pulled another upset on #10 Louisville a couple weeks ago. I have not been able to predict the Hokies very well this season but I think they have a big game in this one. Sophomore QB Kyron Drones is the man to watch. He's thrown 12 TDs with just 3 picks, and should have a big day in this rivalry. Virginia Tech wins 30-21.

#2 Ohio State at #3 Michigan (The Game)

    For the final time, the BIG 10 East division will be decided by the winner of Ohio State and Michigan. These bitter rivals are looking to not only solidify their own spot in the BIG 10 Championship and the College Football Playoff, but also knock the other out of consideration. Ohio State has arguably the most talented receiver in the country with Marvin Harrison Jr., and with him averaging 17.6 yards per catch, he'll be looking to gash the formidable Michigan defense. The Wolverines may still have a few signals memorized that the Buckeyes have, but I expect this to be a closer game than the previous two. Offensively, Michigan is going to pound the rock, so Ohio State's defense will be tested. They've stuffed everyone they've played, but the team as a whole often starts slow. I'm not quite sure what direction this game will go, but it will be a grueling game and one turnover could cost a team the game. Michigan has dominated opponents all year and tend to start more quickly than the Buckeyes. Playing at home I think they win and head to another BIG 10 Championship. Wolverines 23, Buckeyes 21.

Iowa at Nebraska (The Heroes Game)

    The Huskers need one win to book a bowl trip, and it comes down to the battle against Iowa in Farmaggedon. The Hawkeyes have already secured their spot in the BIG 10 Championship, and are looking for their 10th win of the season as they come to Lincoln. Nebraska has essentially pissed away victories in the last three games, but if you remember back to the beginning of the season, my prediction for the Huskers was 4-5 wins with a victory over Iowa. They snuck in a win against Illinois that I didn't expect, but other than that I've been spot on. Chubba Purdy will make his second start and he looks like the best chance for the Huskers to pull out a victory. He played great against Wisconsin, especially when throwing the ball. Not that any forward pass is a high bar between these two teams, but he was fairly accurate last week and that will be needed against a formidable Iowa defense. Neither team has an offense that can move the ball very well, but both teams do have top 15 total defenses, so this is pure, unadulterated BIG 10 West Football. Double digit points for either team is a stretch, and this game closes out as the lowest ever combined point total in college football betting history.  If I could bet on this game (thanks Nebraska laws), I would take the under. With little points expected in this game, the small mistakes become very big. Iowa is great at taking advantage of those and Nebraska is great at making them. Look for penalties and turnovers to bog down the loser of this game. And for the love of all things holy in the world, FEED EMMETT JOHNSON! Hopefully the Huskers can flip the script on that because I have them winning this game 12-6 at home in Memorial. GO BIG RED, BEAT IOWA!

Quick Hit Predictions:

TCU at #13 Oklahoma - Frogs might not go bowling after a trip to the natty last year, tough rebuild in Ft. Worth. Sooners win, but need some help from BYU to go to the Big XII Championship. OU 34, TCU 17.

James Madison at Coastal Carolina - The Dukes fell in overtime to App State last week and have also decided not to take legal action against the NCAA to let them into a bowl. They finish their season with a win to get to 11-1 and we'll see them in the post season in 2024. James Madison 37, Coastal 23.

Air Force at Boise State - Winner goes to the Mountain West Championship game, and with the Falcons on a 3 game slide, the Broncos have an edge. All run game in this one, but Boise State wins 26-20.

Kentucky at #10 Lousiville - The Cardinals are set to play Florida State in the ACC Championship and Jeff Brohm is looking fantastic in his first year back home. They beat Kentucky 33-21.

BYU at #20 Oklahoma State - The Cougars need 1 more win to become bowl eligible, but with a Big XII Championship Game appearance on the line Mike Gundy will have this squad ready. Ollie Gordon II runs wild and the Pokes win it 36-28.

Iowa State at #19 Kansas State - The Powercats need some help if they want a shot at repeating their title, but should handle business against the Cyclones. Big TCU and BYU fans in Manhattan this weekend. K-State 28, ISU 10. The actual Farmmaggedon!

#1 Georgia at Georgia Tech ($) - The Ramblin' Wreck have pulled off a few upsets this season, but this would be the biggest one yet. The Yellow Jackets haven't won since 2016 though, and the last few have been pretty ugly. UGA rolls GT with a 38-10 tune up game ahead of Bama.

#18 Notre Dame at Stanford - The Irish and the Trees meet up on the Farm as ND looks to finish strong with a 9-3 record that should send them to a solid bowl game. Irish win 41-14.

Cal at UCLA - With Chip Kelly potentially on the chopping block, a win here could go a long way to giving him more time in LA. The Golden Bears are itching for a bowl game though and this one should be close. Give me Cal in the road upset 28-23.

Colorado at Utah - Coach Prime will finish out his first season against the Utes in Salt Lake City. The Buffs have had a lot of close games, but giving up 54 sacks in one season along with your QB having no pocket awareness at all does not win you many games, no matter what the Prime Effect looks like. Utes route the Buffaloes who will likely have some stories during the offseason. Utah 33, Colorado 14.

The Perfect Parlay:

1. LSU covers -11.5 against Texas A&M. The Aggies have a tough defense, but Jayden Daniels and the Bayou Bengals offense is electric. They average 46.8 points per game and while they may get a few stops, the Aggies don't have the fire power to keep up. LSU can cover 12 in this game.

2. Bama covers -13 against Auburn. I get nervous putting money down on rivalries, especially in-state ones where there's a lot of bad blood, but just looking at the stats I feel confident in this one. Bama averages 36.5 points per game and runs the ball very effectively. Auburn ranks 80th against the run and gave up 213 on the ground the New Mexico State at home last week. Bama wins by two TDs easy.

3. Georgia covers -24 against Georgia Tech. Again, this week was tough to make bets on with all the rivalry games, but the Yellow Jackets rank 104th in scoring defense, giving up 30.5 points per game and the Bulldogs are healthy and rolling. The'll put up big points in this one.

Thanks for reading my Rivalry Week Predictions and enjoy all the great football this holiday weekend. GO BIG RED!

#CFBKnowItAll

Alex Fernando

Week 12 Predictions

     Happy Saturday Football Fans! It's late November and we're just one week out from my favorite sports weekend of the year. Rivalry week will come soon enough, but we've got a great slate of Week 12 games to get through first. Some conference championships could set more of a clear picture this weekend and there's a few upset potential games you should watch out for. I've got a breakdown and analysis of the Huskers' loss against Maryland last week along with my picks of the week to make some money. Lots to cover in this post, so let's get into it!

    The Husker offense yet again found a way to make their own defense play against two teams as they accounted for 5 turnovers and just 10 points behind 269 total yards. A majority (183) of those total yards came on the ground, but a complete nightmare of the passing game continues to negatively impact this team. I've got my GOOD, EXPECTED and BAD break down of the game below.

GOOD - Emmett Johnson. I said it last week and all during the game, FEED THIS MAN! Emmett has been a lone bright spot for an offense that has given us little hope this season. Again, there are a LOT of injuries to this unit, but Johnson continues to run hard and led the game with 84 yards. Easily could've gone for over 100 if Satterfield would give him the ball. The offense and their unnecessary passes really limits what can be done on the ground. I love throwing the ball as much as the next coach, but when you're averaging almost 5 yards per carry as a team and your lead back is gashing the defense, RUN THE DAMN BALL! Quick tip of the cap to the offensive line too. I rag on them a lot, but they did a tremendous job in this game opening rush lanes for multiple ball carriers and gave up just 1 sack and 5 tackles for loss. Probably their best game thus far.

EXPECTED - Solid Blackshirts performance. With 5 turnovers and a 2/9 (22%) third down conversion rate, the Terps should have DOMINATED this game against the Huskers. They have a high-powered offense that could easily put up 30+ in a game with those stats. However, they were up against the Blackshirts of Nebraska, who forced 3 turnovers themselves and had consistent pressure on the QB, landing just 1 sack but 8 total tackles for loss and knocking down 7 balls. Another stellar performance by the defense has been wasted by the offense's inability to get out of their own way. No matter how many times they're asked to make a stand, the defense rises to the challenge (usually with their backs against the end zone) and gives the offense another opportunity to right the ship. I also want to shoutout Tristan Alvano in this section. I fully expect him to drill every kick when he steps on the field and I haven't had confidence in a Husker Kicker like that since Drew Brown when I was in college.

BAD - Husker Quarterbacks. I hate picking on specific players in this category, but the QB room at Nebraska is absolutely terrible. The Huskers still can't find a guy to lead this offense and the most basic functions of the position are some of the biggest challenges. I have never seen a game where 3 different QBs from the same team throw an interception. All 5 turnovers came from the three QBs, Heinrich Haarberg, Jeff Sims and Chuba Purdy. There were multiple late throws that nearly got guys killed and resulted in incompletions rather than big gains. Multiple handoffs that looked like a fumble was coming and just an overall lack of awareness. Recruiting and the portal are the only way to move forward, but that's next year's problem. I think Purdy looked the best, but that's not a high bar and his throws are easy to read. The stat I'll leave you with is that this group of 3 combined for 10 completions to Husker players, and 4 completions to Maryland players.

Week 11 Record: 18 - 7

Overall Record: 148 - 50

Week 12 Predictions:

#10 Louisville at Miami

    The Cardinals hit the road to take on the Hurricanes in a big time trap game. Miami battled Florida State well, losing by 7 to the 'Noles. The Cardinals had to battle back after giving up a first half lead against Virginia, winning 31-24. Miami has had some ups and downs this season, but one thing that has been fairly consistent is their defense. They rank 19th in total defense and give up just 20.7 points per game on average. If they can force some turnovers in this game their offense could be set up with good field position and make this upset a reality. I like the Hurricanes at home to upset Louisville 33-28.

Appalachian State at James Madison

    The Dukes get to host College Gameday this weekend, following the NCAA's announcement earlier in the week, rejecting the petition from the university trying to gain permission to participate in postseason play. They host the Mountaineers who are no stranger to upsets, and could easily spoil the Dukes' perfect season. First and foremost, it's just bad for the sport to prevent a team like James Madison from participating not only in their conference championship, but for a New Year's Six Bowl. This game will feature a dynamic QB battle as both Joey Aguilar (App State) and Jordan McCloud (JMU) are posting 26:7 TD to INT ratios with 2,657 and 2,800 pass yards respectively. My key to watch is 3rd down. App State gives up 40% of third down conversions while the Dukes give up just 33%. I'll take James Madison to keep winning and keep shoving it in the face of the NCAA. Dukes 31, Mountaineers 27.

#22 Utah at #17 Arizona

    A duel in the dessert features a couple of second tier PAC-12 teams as the Utes and the Wildcats square off. Arizona has an outside chance at sneaking into the conference championship game still, but I doubt Oregon and Washington will be giving up their spots. Regardless, both teams could use a ranked win to boost their bowl resumes and build momentum for next season. It's very difficult for me to go against Utah with how well coached they are, but I've really enjoyed watching Arizona play and this offense is spicy. They have a lot of speed on the outisde but will kill you by one thousand cuts in the run game as well. Wildcats keep winning 28-23.

#1 Georgia at #18 Tennessee ($)

    The Bulldogs look to be back at full strength now, and showed that last week hanging 52 on Ole Miss. The Vols were originally thought of as one of the few challengers for Georgia this season, but their 36-7 demolishing by Mizzou last week has me questioning them a lot. Tennessee has had a few close games, but this won't be one of them. Georgia's offense is back at full strength and they win this game 40-10.

Illinois at #16 Iowa ($)

    The Illini are looking to play spoiler as the Hawkeyes could lock up the BIG 10 West Division with a win today. By now you should know there's little to expect in terms of points or even offense for that matter in a game like this. Iowa has lost star defensive back and punt returner, Cooper DeJean, for the rest of the season. He was one of their primary sources of offense (despite not playing on that side of the ball) and leaves a big hole in their secondary as well. Illinois has pulled out some crazy, last minute wins the past couple of weeks, and seemed to have found their offense, scoring an average of 30 points per game in their last 4 contests. There won't be much scoring in this one though, and we could easily see both teams not hit double digits. Hawkeyes win at home because that's just how it goes. Although I'm rooting a little extra for Illinois so the Nebraska/Iowa game next week is a little more intriguing. Iowa 9, Illinois 7.

#20 North Carolina at Clemson

    Two ACC teams who are trending in different directions. The Tar Heels still have an outside chance of making the conference championship, but the Virginia and Georgia Tech losses really hurt their season. They do rank 3rd in turnover margin with +11, so Clemson needs to be sure to hold onto the rock. The Tigers seem to be back on the rise, winning back to back games against Notre Dame and Georgia Tech. A lot of that success can be tied to the strong performances of RB Phil Mafah. The Junior has a 5.7 yard per carry average, and should be a workhorse in this one. Tigers beat the Tar Heels 33-28

UCLA at USC (Battle for LA)

    The Trojans' season has spiraled out of control as thye're 7-4 and no where near the PAC-12 Championship or Playoffs. The Bruins on the other hand announced they do not plan on bringing Chip Kelley back after the season. They've fallen short of expectations as well, sitting at 6-4 and having lost their last two games. Their offense has disappeared completely, but their defense is still making life difficult for others. USC is the opposite, we know they're going to put up points, but managing that offense and slowing down Caleb Williams is no simple task. I'll take the home team for this one. Fight On USC as they win the battle of LA 37-28.

NC State at Virginia Tech

    The Wolfpack and Hokies meet for an intriguing ACC matchup where defense is king. NC State has held both of their previous 2 opponents to just 6 points. Virginia Tech just demolished Boston College last week, so this game is a tricky one to predict. Games in Blacksburg don't tend to end up well for opposing teams though, give me Virginia Tech with some old school Beamer Ball and win it on with Special Teams 20-14.

UNLV at Air Force

    The Rebels are 8-2 in their first season under Barry Odom and are looking to lock in their spot for the Mountain West Conference Championship. Air Force is at the top of the conference with them, but has suffered bad back to back losses to Army and Hawai'i. I watched the Rebels a bit last weekend in their game against Wyoming, and they put on a clinic of good football. They held the Cowboys to just 3/11 on third downs and dominated time of possession by 7 minutes. Air Force is a run first team that loves to control the ball. They typically keep their third downs very manageable, so we'll see which defense can force the mistakes. The key player to watch in this game is UNLV Quarterback, Jayden Maiava. He's smart with the ball and leads this offense well. Tricky game on the road, but the Rebels are hot and the Falcons have cooled down. UNLV takes the top spot in the Mountain West 27-17.

#23 Oklahoma State at Houston

    The Cowboys followed up their big win in BEDLAM with an absolute dud last week as they were throttled by UCF 45-3. This team has been so hot and cold this season, and now have to fend off a few other Big XII foes in order to keep their spot in the conference championship secure. Houston has been up in down their first year in the conference, but still have a shot at a bowl game if they win out. One big issue for them has been their rush defense, which does not bode well when Ollie Gordon II comes to town. The Cougars rank 95th in the nation and I'm not sure that will be enough to stop him. Gordon averages 6.7 yards per carry and was locked down in Florida last week, so he'll be looking for a breakout day. Pokes bounce back and keep the Cougars from bowling in a close one 34-31.

UCF at Texas Tech ($)

    The Golden Knights and the Red Raiders both had big victories over ranked teams last week. As mentioned, UCF thumped Oklahoma State 45-3, and Tech took down the Jayhawks (on the road) 16-13. They haven't fully lived up to what I thought they might be this season, but I have been saying all year how dangerous this Texas Tech team is. Remember they nearly upset Oregon back in Week 2. Both these teams are 1 win away from bowl eligibility and this should be a close one. UCF absolutely locked down the run game last week, holding Ollie Gordon II to just 25 yards. Texas Tech RB Tahj Brooks has had just 3 games where he didn't cross the century mark this season, so I expect a good battle between the Knights run defense and the Red Raiders rushing attack with Brooks. Tech has a solid defense of their own too, and I think that's the difference maker in this game. They played well against Kansas and a big win at home to secure a bowl game would be great for this program. Plus, they're handing out shirts with the possum on them for students, so you know they're going to win. Wreck 'Em as the Red Raiders win 35-33 at home.

#21 Kansas State at #25 Kansas (Sunflower Showdown)

    We've got an instate rivalry between ranked teams as the Wildcats and Jayhawks clash in Lawrence. A bit of an up and down year for both teams, winning some big games and losing some head scratchers. Kansas has learned to live without star QB Jalon Daniels, but Jason Bean has done well in the roll, throwing for over 1,400 yards with a 10:4 TD to INT ratio. K-State has a few close losses on the season, but are still in the hunt to defend their conference title from last year. They have dominated this series as of late, winning every meeting since 2008. The Jayhawks have come close a few times, and will today, but that defense at K-State is no joke. Give me the Wildcats in a hard fought victory against their rival. K-State 27, Kansas 17.

Florida at #9 Missouri ($)

    The Gators are spiraling with 3 straight losses and are in danger of missing a bowl game unless they can beat Mizzou on the road or Florida State at home next week. Neither of those games favor Florida, especially when they rank 75th in total defense and the Tigers boast the 26th best offense in the nation. Every week I've given high praise to Luther Burden III and his talents at Wide Receiver for the Tigers, and he absolutely deserves them. But this game will be driven on the ground by Missouri, and that's where Senior RB Cody Schrader shines. He's averaging 5.7 yards per carry and has 11 TDs on the ground this season. With the Gators giving up 160 yards per game on average to the rushing attack, he should have a big day. I don't want to take away from what ex-Badger Graham Mertz has done this season, throwing for over 2,700 yards with an 18:2 TD to INT ratio, but he doesn't have the defense to help him win this game. Tigers big at home 30-20.

#7 Texas at Iowa State

    It's upset alert time! The Longhorns have been living dangerously with 3 one-score victories in their last 4 games. Iowa State is right in the conference championship mix with a 5-2 record and have been very hot in the back half the season, losing by 7 to Kansas as their only loss in the last 5 weeks. These late November night games in Ames always seem to bring out the worst in opponents, and upsets around this time of year not what you want if you're Texas. Quin Ewers and the offense looked good in his return, but the defense blew a 20 point lead in the 4th quarter, so the Cyclones will have their opportunities. Freshman QB Rocco Becht is the key factor in this one. If he can make smart throws and keep control of the game without turnovers, Iowa State has a good chance to pull this upset. Texas will lose at some point to knock them out of playoff considerations, but it won't be today. A tight one in Ames, Iowa, but the Horns walk away with a 34-31 victory.

#5 Washington at #11 Oregon State

    The Huskies and the Beavers meet for a PAC-12 showdown that has major implications on not only the conference, but the CFB Playoffs. Washington has been another team living dangerously with close wins, and now they face a defense that has 18 total takeaways so far this season. The Huskies will look to air raid as usual, and Michael Penix Jr. will look to continue his Heisman campaign. He's thrown for over 3,500 yard and 28 TDs this season, but does have 7 picks. On the other side, DJ Uiagalelei has revived his career in Corvallis, throwing for nearly 2,300 on the season with 20 TDs and 4 picks while adding another 6 TDs on the ground. This will be a big road test for the Huskies as they look to finish a perfect 12-0, and it should be another close one. It's damn near impossible to slow down this offense though, and I think Penix has another Heisman-caliber game to win it for Washington 29-21.

Nebraska at Wisconsin (Battle for the Freedom Trophy) ($)

    The Husker Volleyball team broke their losing streak against Wisconsin earlier this year so now it's time for football to end their drought, right? The Badgers have not looked great in their first year under Luke Fickell, especially as they've lost the last 3 games in a row and 4 of their last 5. Focus should be on the ground game for both teams as the forward pass typically spells disaster this season. Nebraska hasn't announced who will be starting, but I'm leaning toward giving Purdy the reigns. He looked good in that final drive against Maryland, and honestly, it can't get any worse. The Blackshirts will do what they do and shouldn't have too many issues against a very one dimensional Wisconsin team. Star RB Braelon Allen has not had the impressive season we expected and the rock has been shared with his teammates more. For the Huskers, all offense should run through Emmett Johnson. He's been dominant in the last few weeks and is the only reliable source of offense. Look for him to have a big night and give the Huskers a boost. Expect plenty of dumb turnovers though, because Nebraska loves to do that and lose the game. I had this as a loss in the beginning of the year, so I'll stick with that pick but I hope the Huskers can prove me wrong. I think it comes down to Iowa as Wisconsin gets the bowl bid today over the Huskers in a 14-10 victory. Please Huskers, make me wrong today!

Quick Hit Predictions:

#3 Michigan at Maryland - Wolverines should roll this game now that the drama has settled down with Harbaugh accepting his suspension. They've shown they can win without him on the sidelines and they do it against the Terps 40-17.

#14 Oklahoma at BYU - A sneaky game with upset potential, but I don't trust BYU all the way. They're too hot and cold for me so give me the Sooners on the road. Oklahoma 37, BYU 28.

Wake Forest at #19 Notre Dame - Sam Hartman gets to square off against his old team and he should put on a show against this defense. Irish win big 38-10.

#6 Oregon at Arizona State - A dangerous road game against a team that's been close to pulling some upsets already and loves to play fast on defense. I think the Ducks are up for the challenge though and they are on a mission to prove they're Playoff worthy. Oregon big 42-14.

Minnesota at #2 Ohio State - Minnesota is spiraling and the Buckeyes have Maserati Marv. This one shouldn't concern anyone much. Buckeyes dominate 38-7.

Boise State at Utah State - A fun Mountain West game where the winner gets bowl eligibility. Both squads are very similar, but I like the offense and QB play from the Aggies. Utah State beats the Broncos for the first time since 2015 by a score of 31-24.

The Perfect Parlay:

1. BIG 10 Unders.

    Fear it, run from it, this bet arrives all the same. I simplified it to just the Iowa and Nebraska games this week, but I don't see either of these getting many points. Iowa/Illinois stays under 30 and Nebraska/Wisconsin stays under 37. No Minnesota or Purdue to mess things up!

2. Georgia & Missouri cover the spread.

    The SEC East has been a mess outside of these two teams and although Georgia is on the road, I like their chances to cover 10.5 against the Vols. They dropped 52 on the Rebels last week and their offense is healthy with all its weapons. Missouri also has a 10.5 spread against the Gators, but they're at home and demolished Tennessee 36-7 last week after playing Georgia close. The Gators defense gives up 27.4 points per game, so look for the Tigers to have a big night.

Maryland @ Nebraska with my best buddy Michael Ferguson

Thanks for reading my Week 12 Predictions and enjoy your College Football Saturday! GO BIG RED!

#CFBKnowItAll

Alex Fernando

Week 11 Predictions

    Good morning football fans and welcome to another weekend of November College Football! There are a few big games this weekend and a lot of potential for shakeups across different conferences including the BIG 10. This week's post recaps my thoughts on the Huskers' loss to Michigan State last week and previews all the big games of the week. Let's get right into it!

    Despite all the momentum for the Huskers, the road trip to East Lansing ended in an extremely frustrating 20-17 loss to the Spartans. A few leaks in pass defense, questionable officiating and horrendous offensive output with 3 turnovers leads to the 5-4 Huskers still fighting for bowl eligibility. I've got my GOOD, EXPECTED and BAD categories broken down below.

GOOD - Emmett Johnson. While the numbers don't jump off the page for Johnson and the Husker offense, he's one of the few bright spots in my opinion. His rushing total dipped down to just 57 yards on 13 carries after topping 75 the last two games, but he's still averaging over 5 yards per carry on the season and *knocks on wood* is the only ball carrier who has yet to fumble for the Huskers. Definitely need to give some props to the true freshman and hope he continues to run hard.

EXPECTED - Frustrations with the BIG 10 Officials/Replay. I'm not one to blame the outcome of games on the officiating, but I do feel last week's game was heavily influenced by bad and/or missed calls. The reviewed touchdown clearly shows the ball on the ground. The missed pass interference call when the Michigan State defender threw his entire body into Malachi Coleman with the ball floating over head and the clock not stopping on the first down catch while the chains were moving on the final drive followed by the "fumble" from Haarberg with his arm moving forward. Again, the Huskers can't expect to win games with the poor offensive output and turnovers, but officiating like that is unacceptable for any level of football.

BAD - Nebraska's passing game. Apparently the concept of the forward pass as a useful tool and strategy for an offense seems to be more of a disadvantage for the Huskers. I know Haarberg's options are limited with numerous injuries to the wide receiver room, but the passing offense is extremely difficult to watch. Haarberg is unable to keep his head up and eyes downfield when moving in or out of the pocket, missing a lot of open targets. His telegraphed throws are always into heavy traffic and the drops by the wideouts on his decent throws are not good for his confidence. This is probably an issue that moves the needle in 2024, so get comfortable being uncomfortable with that ball in the air.

Week 10 Record: 16 - 7

Overall Record: 130 - 44

Week 11 Predictions:

#3 Michigan at #10 Penn State

    

    The Wolverines and Nittany Lions meet for a top 10 matchup, but that's not the headline here. The main story of this game is if Jim Harbaugh will be allowed into the stadium at Happy Valley to coach his team. On Friday afternoon the BIG 10 issued a suspension allowing to Harbaugh coach during the week but not at games over the next three weeks. The University has issued a counter measure with a temporary restraining order in an attempt to block the suspension on Friday night. Separate of all this drama, there is a football game that will kick off at 11 AM central time, so let's look to that. Michigan has been dominant all season long. Penn State's only blemish is the loss in the horseshoe against the Buckeyes. Can their offense step up to the challenge? This will likely be a defensive slugfest if we can get to the football. Penn State probably has the best chance to beat Michigan, but they never seem to finish the deal. The Wolverines have yet to be tested this year (for obvious, sign-stealing reasons), but I think they hold on to win outside all the noise. Michigan 24, Penn State 17.

Texas Tech at #16 Kansas

    The Red Raiders travel to Lawrence with an opportunity to shake things up in the Big XII conference standings. The Longhorns and Pokes sit atop the conference, but Kansas (and many others are right on their heels. While Tech isn't quite in the mix unless there's quite a few tumbles, they would love nothing more than to knock off a ranked KU squad. The air-raid era in Lubbock seems to have morphed into a more balanced attack as Senior RB, Tahj Brooks has more than 1,000 yards to his name this season with 7 rushing TDs as well. Kansas runs the ball quite well on their own, averaging just under 200 yards per game and ranking 19th in the nation. This may not be one of the classic Big XII shootouts of old, but it will certainly be a good game. Rock Chalk as the Jayhawks beat the Red Raiders 27-21.

#21 Arizona at Colorado

    The red hot Wildcats head to Boulder to take on the spiraling Prime Time Buffs. With a 4-2 conference record, Arizona is not completely out of the PAC-12 race. They would need some more help, but you never know what's going to happen in college football. For this game, there should be a lot of speed to watch for. Colorado has struggled to protect Shedeur Sanders this season, allowing 46 sacks which ranks second to last in the nation. Arizona has 23 sacks on the year thus far, so look for them to add pressure and keep Shedeur Sanders uncomfortable. Defensively for the Buffs, they need to find a way to slow down Arizona's offense. They've put up nearly 800 yards of offense in their last two games, against two of the better defenses in the PAC-12 conference. Freshman QB Noah Fifita is the player to watch, along his favorite target, 6'5 Sophomore Wide Receiver Tetairoa McMillan, who has 753 yards and 7 TDs so far this season. Travis Hunter will likely follow him around the field, so we've got a best on best matchup you won't want to miss there. If you haven't watched Arizona football yet, tune into this game. Wildcats win on the road 34-28.

#18 Utah at #5 Washington

    Sticking in the PAC-12, we see if the Huskies can turn around for another big game following the USC shootout without having a hangover. Following the Oregon, they nearly fell and dropped one to Arizona State. The Utes are likely a tougher opponent compared to the Sun Devils, so any slip ups against them could be very costly for the Huskies. Lucky for them, they have a man named Michael Penix Jr. slinging the ball, and complimented by RB Dillon Johnson who is coming off an INSANE 256 yard, 4 TD performance against the trojans. Utah's defense is rugged and they love to slow the game down with pressure and negative players. However, I don't think they have the offensive firepower to keep pace with Washington. The Utes are always dangerous for an upset, but give me the Huskies 30-17.

#13 Tennessee at #14 Missouri

    Not that it matters too much with Georgia all but securing their spot in the SEC Championship game again, but we do have an intriguing matchup of top 15 teams in the SEC East. The Vols travel to Columbia to take on the Tigers of Mizzou. They put up a strong fight against the Bulldogs, but fell to them as all typically do. I would expect to see some fireworks in this game though, both teams average in the low 30s per game for points, and with dynamic players such as Luther Burden III (Mizzou Wideout) and Jaylen Wright (Tennessee RB). The QB battle will be the deciding factor though, as neither Joe Milton (Tennessee) and Brady Cook (Missouri) are two of the best gunlingers in the nation. This is a tricky game to predict, but I'll give the nod to the home team as Mizzou. Tigers win at home 28-24.

Miami vs #4 Florida State

    The 'Noles and 'Canes renew their rivalry in Tallahassee for a big ACC November showdown. FSU looks to remain perfect on the season behind Heisman-hopeful QB Jordan Travis. He's been torching defenses all season long with his favorite target, ex-Michigan State receiver Keon Coleman who has 538 yards and 9 TDs on the year. Miami started their season hot with the big win over A&M, but since their blunder against Georgia Tech, they've lost 3 of their last five and their two wins were slim in overtime. Their defense has been okay but not great over these few weeks, however, they still rank 19th in the nation in total defense. The offense hasn't produced much of anything though, and that will be the issue today. The focus will be on Jordan Travis and the Florida State offense, but this game will be won because of the FSU defense because they rank 7th in opponent third down conversions, allowing just 28%. Dominant win for FSU all around. Seminoles 38, Hurricanes 17.

#15 Oklahoma State at UCF

    The Pokes won the last ever (scheduled) BEDLAM game last week and sit atop the Big XII standings along with Texas. They control their own destiny to play for a conference championship by winning out, and now travel to conference newbie UCF. The Knights (as I predicted) finally got their first Big XII win over Cincy last week and could very well be upset minded with the Pokes in town. Lots of potential for a hangover game for the Cowboys after a crazy BEDLAM game. They may be sleepy for a bit, but star RB Ollie Gordon II will takeover and have another big game. Pokes run away late on the back of Gordon for a 30-17 win.

Rutgers at #22 Iowa ($)

    The first every game to have a total point mark under 30 takes place in Iowa as the Scarlet Knights look to be the team to score double digits on this defense. We know the Hawkeye offense isn't going to produce anything significant, but turnovers and special teams are the key in this game. It's still a bit of a mystery when you look at Rutgers because they've had a great start to the season, held Ohio State down in the first half, but then were overpowered in the second half. Iowa's defense won't let them do much, but scoring double digit points might win you the game in this one. It's impossible to pick against Iowa when I know other teams will make mistakes though. I'll be cheering for Rutgers but I'll take the Hawkeyes at home. Smash that under if you're betting. Iowa 13, Rutgers 9.

Minnesota at Purdue ($)

    The Gophers dropped a close one to Illinois at home last week, moving them out of the first place spot for the BIG 10 West. They have the tie breaker with Iowa, so if they keep pace and the Hawkeyes drop one then Indianapolis is still in reach. They travel to West Lafayette today to take on the Boilermakers who have struggled to put things together under first year Head Coach Ryan Walters. They've lost 4 straight since beating Illinois 44-19 back in September, and they have scored a combined 48 in those 4 games. Hudson Card and the offense need to find a way to put up points, but that won't be easy against the Gophers. Classic BIG 10 matchup, so you know the drill, first team to 20 wins the game and I've got the Gophers. Minnesota 24, Purdue 10.

#9 Ole Miss at #2 Georgia

    The Rebels travel to Athens to take on the DAWGS between the hedges in an SEC battle with championship appearance implications. Ole Miss needs some help with Bama losing, but they could put a dent in the the Dawgs armor with a big road upset. Jaxon Dart and Quinshon Judkins have been sensational for Ole Miss, leading them to be the 11th best offense in the nation. They've got a tough task ahead though as Georgia's defense gives up just over 15 points per game. Bulldog QB Carson Beck has quietly had a very strong season in his first year starting, and this could turn into a bit of a shootout down in Athens. It's impossible to go against the Dawgs at home though. I'd love to see some chaos, but give me Georgia with another arms-length victory 34-24.

West Virginia at #17 Oklahoma

    The Mountaineers are right in the mix of the Big XII Conference race, sitting at 4-2, just like Oklahoma. The Sooners have spiraled after their win in the Red River Rivalry against Texas, narrowly beating UCF at home and then dropping back to back games against Kansas and Oklahoma State. They need a big bounce back performance today, but need to be ready to play because although they've lost a couple close ones, the Mountaineers have scored at least 34 points in each of their last 4 games. Sooner QB Dillon Gabriel has thrown a pick in each of the last 3 games, so turnovers have contributed to the struggle as well. The defenses are the key factor here, especially with forcing turnovers and field position. Oklahoma gives up just 29% of third down conversions and they're playing at home. Boomer Sooner in this one but, it's closer than you think. Oklahoma 33, West Virginia 28.

Duke at #24 North Carolina

    Just a few weeks ago this was looking to be like one of the basketball matchups between these schools with high rankings and conference championship implications. A few injuries to key player and upset losses have changed the narratives, but these basketball blue bloods meet on the gridiron today for what should be an entertaining game. The Blue Devils rely on their defense to slow things down and force turnovers for their offense. They have a +2 turnover margin on the season, but the Tar Heels actually rank 3rd in the nation with +12. Drake Maye and the UNC offense lost a couple of upsets in October, but not from a lack of points. They put up just shy of 40 points per game on average, and they do it again today as they beat Duke 35-28.

USC at #6 Oregon

    The gauntlet of games continues to stack up against the Trojans as they now travel to Autzen Stadium to take on the Ducks. Bo Nix and the Oregon squad are looking to get back to the PAC-12 Championship with hopes of getting a chance to face off against Washington again. We have another stellar QB battle out west as Nix and Caleb Williams duke it out. The Trojans were going punch for punch last week against the Huskies until the fumble right before the half. Oregon's defense has quietly been dominating every opponent, and they have a +8 turnover margin. USC was torched by the run last week and fired Defensive Coordinator Alex Grinch following the loss. I don't think that is going to help them much and Bo Nix lights them up for a big game in PAC-12 after dark. This will be another fun one to watch and you'll see why I think Oregon makes the Playoffs this year. Ducks beat the Trojans 35-21.

Maryland at Nebraska

    The Terps roll into Lincoln for a morning kickoff in Memorial Stadium. The Veteran's Day honors and celebrations are set and we've got a BIG 10 matchup that determines which team secures a bowl spot first. Husker Nation would love nothing more than seeing their team get bowl eligible today, especially at home. Unfortunately, this Husker offense does not make their fans very happy. The Huskers rank 131st in the nation with a -12 turnover margin. The Husker offense is the true opponent today as Maryland will look to pick up some of the multiple fumbles we can all expect watching this game. For the Terps, star QB Tualia Tagovailoa is looking to get their team back on track after 4 straight losses following their 5-0 start. He's thrown for nearly 2,500 yards with a 21:7 TD to INT ratio. The Husker secondary has been giving up some tough pass completions at the wrong time, they will be tested probably more than they have been since Colorado in this game. Tagovailoa is very dangerous when given time in the pocket, and the Terps only allow about 2 sacks per game. Pressure from the Blackshirts will be key in this one, because scoring double-digits in this game might be enough to hold the Huskers down. I really want to see the Huskers achieve bowl eligibility today, but I can't trust the offense to put up enough points. Tough day in Lincoln as the Huskers fall 21-13 at home. Prove me wrong please!

Quick Hit Predictions:

#8 Alabama at Kentucky - The Tide are back atop the SEC West and clinches their spot in Atlanta with a win today on the road. Wildcats QB Devin Leary and RB Ray Davis lead this offense for Kentucky, and are great players to watch. The Tide Roll behind their defense though, and they clinch the SEC West with a 31-14 victory.

Virginia Tech at Boston College - The Hokies and Golden Eagles meet for an undercard ACC matchup, but this game has some spice to it. Virginia Tech is just 2 wins away from bowl eligibility, and they have to win at least one road game to get there. BC continues to win the close games, and they do it again at home. Boston College 23, Virginia Tech 20.

Georgia Tech at Clemson - Bowl eligibility on the line as the Tigers host the Yellow Jackets. Georgia Tech as pulled some big upsets this season, but Clemson has momentum back. Dabo said it and while I'm not buying much stock, I'll buy it for this game. Tigers find off the Yellow Jackets with defense at home 28-17.

Northwestern at Wisconsin ($) - The Wildcats and Badgers meet for a BIG 10 West showdown at Camp Randall. Both teams come in frustrated after the Wildcats lost late to Iowa in Wrigley and Wisconsin fell on the road to Indiana. It's really hard to know who is going to step up in this game as Northwestern has been very surprising this year and the Badgers have been flat in Luke Fickell's first year. Give me the Badgers at home 20-14.

Michiagan State at #1 Ohio State - Sparty knocked my Huskers last week, but now travel to the Horseshoe to take on the top ranked Buckeyes. Ohio State continues to dominate the second half of games after sluggish starts, but this one shouldn't have many issues. Buckeyes 38, Spartans 10.

Florida at #19 LSU - The Gators and Tigers meet in Death Valley tonight for a bit of a lackluster SEC fight. Neither team has lived up to hype this year, and the Gators are still in need of a victory for bowl eligibility. Jayden Daniels was taken out of the Bama game last week due to a concussion, so he may be out. This makes this game a bit closer, but I don't trust Florida to finish this game. Tigers win at home 30-24.

Mississippi State at Texas A&M - The Aggies can secure a post season with a win at home after a tough month where they've lost 3 of their last 4 games. The Bulldogs have flopped in their last two games and I think the Aggies' defense takes control in this one. Gig 'em for a 27-17 victory.

The Perfect Parlay:

1. BIG 10 Unders

• The only games I had marked this week were the BIG 10 matchups of Iowa/Rutgers (28.5), Minnesota/Purdue (46.5) and Northwestern/Wisconsin (42.5). I've been burned every time I try this parlay, but it's always close. I trust the BIG 10 in November and I think today is the day. Bet the under and enjoy some BIG 10 West football.

Thanks for reading my Week 11 Predictions and enjoy your College Football Saturday! GO BIG RED!

#CFBKnowItAll

Alex Fernando

Week 10 Predictions

    Welcome to November! It's Week 10 and we kick off November College Football with some fantastic matchups. My Huskers can get bowl eligible for the first time since 2016 this weekend and there could be some shake ups in the CFP rankings after Saturday. Before we get to my picks though, I've got a quick breakdown of the Huskers' win at home against Purdue. Check it all out below!

    The Huskers walked out of a brutally cold Homecoming with a 31-14 victory over the Boilermakers despite fumbling nearly every other possession throughout the game. The opening kickoff was given to Purdue after the Huskers fumbled on the return, but the story of the day once again came from the Blackshirts as they derailed the train all day long. Below is my break down my GOOD, EXPECTED and BAD categories of the game.

GOOD - The Blackshirts deserved the shutout they had going in this game as they held Purdue to fewer than 200 total yards and forced 3 turnovers. They were constantly put in a bad position from their offense, but rose to the occasion countless times in the bitter cold to shut down the Boilermakers. This unit has been sensational all season and it's hard not to expect a breaking point coming. They seemed determined to not let that happen though. My biggest takeaway is the continued pressure on opposing QBs. The Huskers now have 26 on the season, averaging around 3 per game. Big performances on this side of the ball and they're the reason the Huskers are 5-3.

EXPECTED - Rising special teams play and Jeff Sims. I have a positive and negative selection for this category this week. Getting the bad one out first, I think we can all agree that the Jeff Sims experiment is done now. I very much did not want to see him go in on Saturday, yet we got it anyways. Immediately the game was starting to flip due to his inability to hold the ball. I have nothing personal against the man, but there's no reason to have him take snaps when Haarberg is healthy. On the positive side, I mentioned it ahead of last week's game, but the special teams unit (minus the return game) is on the rise. Alvano is gaining confidence every week and hitting a 55 yard field goal in bitter cold weather is no small accomplishment. The blocked kick returned for a TD was electrifying and shows this coaching staff values Special Teams. Now we just need to figure out the returns.

BAD - Fumbles and anyone who hasn't watched Matt Rhule's fight pregame speech. First and foremost, the Huskers put the ball on the ground entirely too much. They're actually last in the nation with 24 total fumbles and 11 lost. Army (a triple option team) is the next closest in fumbles with 19. This issue doesn't look like it's going to be fixed soon, but it could certainly cause issues if not addressed soon. The last BAD piece of the week is for anyone in the nation who has not watched the video of Matt Rhule's speech ahead of the game. Whether you're a Husker fan or not, you'll want to run though a brick wall after you listen to him talk. Sensational leader and speaker. Great fit for Husker Nation right now.

Week 9 Record: 12 - 6

Overall Record: 114 - 37

Week 10 Predictions:

#1 Ohio State at Rutgers

    The Buckeyes travel to Piscataway to take on the Scarlet Knights who are sitting at a surprising 6-2 record. Their competition hasn't been impressive, but when you reach bowl eligibility before November you're doing something right. This is a good "prove it" game for both teams though. Ohio State earned the first #1 ranking from the College Football Playoff Committee due to their strength of schedule, but they have not looked dominant in their wins. Favored by nearly 20 points, this is a game that could become a major reinforcing statement for that #1 ranking. For Rutgers, this is a good test to see if they can cause some damage in the BIG 10 East. They rank 2nd in the nation for pass defense, but Marvin Harrison Jr. is a different animal. Greg Schiano has a deadly run game behind Junior RB Kyle Monangai, but will likely need more offensive output to keep up with Marvin Harrison Jr. and the Buckeyes. Give me Ohio State by 3 scores in this one. Buckeyes 38, Rutgers 17.

#23 Kansas State at #7 Texas

    The Wildcats have given up just 3 points in their last two games, but now take on a Texas offense that averages 34.5 points per game. Both teams will look to run the ball early and often as K-State is led on the ground by DJ Giddens, a sophomore back who averages 6.2 yards per carry and has 7 TDs on the year. The Longhorns quickly found a star to replace Bijan Robinson as sophomore Johnathan Brooks has nearly 1,000 yards on the season with his 7 TDs. It should be a rugged, ground and pound game down in Austin. This feels like one of those games where no one is paying attention to the Powercats and they pull this upset that everyone is shocked by except for them because they're all business. Three of the last four have been 1-score games, but I like Texas to continue their streak and make it 7 straight on K-State. Horns Hook 'Em 28-23.

Texas A&M at #10 Ole Miss

    The Aggies bounced back after the BYE week with a much needed win against South Carolina, but now travel to the Grove to take on the 10th ranked Rebels. Ole Miss has a dynamic offense led by QB Jaxon Dart and RB Quinshon Judkins. The story of this game will be on 3rd down though, because that is where the A&M defense thrives. They rank 7th in the nation, allowing opponents to convert less than 29% of their third downs. The Rebels rank 93rd in conversion rate with just over 36%, so this part of the game heavily favors the Aggies. If they can get Jaxon Dart and this offense off the field consistently, this could turn into a game with big upset potential. However, the Aggies are still struggling to turn the switch on offensively, and with too many points early they could be too far behind to come back. This is an intriguing game to watch with the 11 AM start, but I like the Rebels in the Grove. Can't quite trust A&M. Ole Miss wins 36-30.

#12 Missouri at #2 Georgia

    The Bulldogs host the 12th ranked Tigers and you're probably wondering; when did Missouri climb so high in the rankings? It's a fair question, but the Tigers have dominated opponents apart from their lone loss to LSU in a shootout a month ago. They could be the best option for an upset on Georgia, and that all runs through the QB-WR duo of Brady Cook and Luther Burden III. This pair has connected 61 times through the air for 905 yards and 6 TDs. Georgia will need to know where Burden is lined up on every play as he's consistently burned opposing defenders from a wide range of positions. The Dawgs are still looking for someone to step up following the loss of star TE Brock Bowers, and while they're still putting up an average of 40.5 points per game, there's a lot of questions on what this offense really has to it. Regardless, they should handle the Tigers of MIZ-ZOU. Bulldogs control the SEC East with a 38-10 victory.

#9 Oklahoma at #22 Oklahoma State (BEDLAM)

    For the last time in who knows how long, we have BEDLAM! This game is truly one of the biggest losses when it comes to conference realignment because the in-state rivalry between the Sooners and Cowboys has been played nearly every year since 1904. The chaos, the madness, the pure insanity that is BEDLAM writes its final chapter as member teams of the same conference with OU off the to SEC next season. Nonetheless, there's still a football game to be played and it has some Big XII Championship implications. After a very concerning start to the season, the Pokes have won 4 of their last 5 games and sit right in the mix for a conference title bid. Oklahoma is still in the driver seat, but after being upset by Kansas in Lawrence last week they will be looking for blood to get back in the CFP mix. This should be a classic BEDLAM shootout, but look for Dillon Gabriel to bounce back after not throwing a TD last game. Watch for the Cowboys RB Ollie Gordon II to have a big night though, he averages 136 yards per game which is best in the nation. Boomer Sooner (as usual in this rivalry) as they beat the Pokes 37-31.

Illinois at Minnesota ($)

    It's the BIG 10 West, so you know the drill! The Gophers have won back-to-back games and sit in perfect place to let the West run through Minneapolis. Illinois has fallen off with a 1-4 conference record, but could easily spoil the Minnesota's fun in this game. Neither QB has been impressive this year, but receivers like Isaiah Williams (Illinois) and Daniel Jackson (Minnesota) certainly help them out with thier 562 and 507 yard receiving respectively. Ball security is important when the goal is 20 points, but give me the Gophers at home. Minnesota 21, Illinois 14.

Iowa at Northwestern ($)

    The Hawkeyes are coming out of they BYE week knowing that OC Brian Ferentz will not be returning next season. However, he's still OC for now, so you can expect a baseball type score for the third game every played at Wrigley Field. The Wildcats are hosting a team that has more punting yards than offensive yards on the season, yet are somehow still an underdog. They had an impressive win against Maryland last week where QB Brendan Sullivan had his best game of the season with 265 yards passing, 2 TDs and another 56 yards rushing. It will be hard to put up those numbers against an Iowa defense that suffocates opponents to just over 4 yards per play, but on the bright side it doesn't take a more than two scores to beat the Hawkeyes. I like Iowa to bounce back on the road in this one, but the Cubs might have a better shot at breaking double digits. Hawkeyes 13, Wildcats 7.

James Madison at Georgia State

    The Dukes remain undefeated but due to (stupid) NCAA rules they are ineligible for both their conference title game and a bowl game. They would likely be the G5 team bidding for the New Year's Six Bowl Game, but for now they'll have to just keep rolling. A close game against ODU last week was one of their biggest tests of the season, and now host the 6-2 Panthers from Georgia State. Both teams have dynamic players at QB with Jordan McCloud (JMU) throwing for 2,036 yards with 18 TDs and 6 picks and Darren Grainger (GSU) with 1,789 and a 12:4 TD to INT ratio. However, my key player to watch is Georgia State RB Marcus Carroll. He's 3rd in the nation with 1,060 yards and 12 rushing TDs so far this season. This goes right into the teeth of JMU's defense though who rank 1st in the nation, allowing just 49 yards per game on the ground by opposing teams. This will be a fun battle to watch, and home field advantage will be a big factor. Give me the Dukes in a close one though! JMU wins 27-23.

Kansas at Iowa State ($)

    The Jayhawks won one of the biggest games in school history last week as they knocked off the Sooners for the first time since the '90s. Now they go on the road to face an Iowa State squad that is 4-1 in conference play and has been heavily forgotten. Someone else who is forgotten is Jayhawk QB Jalon Daniels. He's questionable for the game against the Cyclones with back tightness that has kept him out the past few weeks for KU. Luckily Junior RB Devin Neal has carried the load for the offense, and QB Jason Bean has done a great job stepping in as well. They will look to put up points against Iowa State who ranks 28th in scoring defense with fewer than 20 points per game given up. This one will be back and forth, but turnovers are key and I like Kansas to seal the victory with a big one late in the 4th quarter. Rock Chalk 27-21.

Boise State at Fresno State

    A classic Mountain West rivalry is set again as the Broncos travel to the Valley to take on the Bulldogs. Last year Fresno State had to travel to Boise twice, losing the regular season matchup, but winning the conference title the second time around. These teams are always at the front of the pack for the Mountain West Conference, but Air Force and UNLV are making it a bit more crowded this year. This game carries heavy weight with it which means we look to the turnovers. Fresno State ranks 2nd in the nation with a +11 turnover margin while the Broncos rank 121st in the nation with a -6 margin. Give me the Bulldogs at home with some key turnovers. Fresno State 31, Boise State 21.

#19 UCLA at Arizona ($)

    Yet another ranked team travels to the desert for a trap game with PAC-12 after dark. The Bruins held down the Buffaloes at home last week, but now face a very talented Arizona squad who are looking for another home win versus a ranked team. Last week they torched the Beavers through the air, throwing for 275 yards and 3 TDs. Sophomore wideout Tetairoa McMillan was sensational with 8 catches for 80 yards and a TD. His 6'5 210 lbs. frame is a lot to deal with for defenders, so look for him to get a lot of targets. Another dangerous player for Arizona is Senior wideout Michael Wiley. He has incredible speed in the open field, so missing tackles is a no-go in this game. For UCLA, keeping a hold of the ball will be a heavy focus. They were able to survive 4 turnovers against Colorado, but Arizona is a team that will make you pay for those. This feels like another spooky upset game, so give me the Wildcats in another upset 24-21 over the Bruins

#5 Washington at #20 USC

    A highly anticipated matchup in the PAC-12 that could result in one of the highest scoring games this year. USC has spiraled a bit the last couple weeks with back-to-back losses to Notre Dame and Utah followed by a slim victory against Cal. The Huskies have been flat since their big win against the Ducks, playing a couple of tight games with Arizona State and Stanford. Two Heisman-caliber QBs will battle in this game as Michael Penix Jr. and Caleb Williams look to put up big numbers. Both have sensational numbers this season with nearly 3,000 passing yards and a 24:6 TD to INT ratio for Penix, and 2,646 yards with a 25:4 TD to INT ratio for Williams. Slowing these teams down is the key, and no easy task. The Huskies have been much more impressive on defense, but need to step it up a notch in a game like this. I can't trust USC to stop Penix and the Husky offense, so give me Washington with the 38-31 victory.

#14 LSU at # 8 Alabama

    The rivalry that produces some of the best football games writes another chapter as the Tigers and the Tide meet in Tuscaloosa. Bama has a had a bit of a resurgence since their early season struggles, but LSU boasts the number 1 offense in the nation with more than 550 yards per game on average. Another Heisman hopeful QB will play in this one as Jayden Daniels looks to go 2-0 against the Tide after their 1-point over time victory last season. He's thrown for nearly 2,600 yards with a stellar 25 TDs and just 3 picks. On the other side, Jalen Milroe has hit his groove, but the true strength of Alabama is with the defense. Specifically with their pass rush, the Tide love to reek havoc on opposing offenses. They average 3.5 sacks per game and will look to apply a lot of pressure to Jayden Daniels all night long. This will be another tough battle, but one thing I'll say is that I don't think Bama is going to lose 2 home games in the same season. Give me the Tide at home in a great one 27-26.

Nebraska at Michigan State ($)

    The Huskers can get bowl eligible with a win over the Spartans today, which would be the first time since 2016. Michigan State is a mess of a program after the firing of Mel Tucker amid his sexual harassment situation, and they have lost 6 straight games including 5 in the BIG 10. Offensively the only real threat to the Blackshirts (apart from the Husker offense turning the ball over) is Sophomore RB Nathan Carter. He's averaging 4.3 yards per carry, but the 6th best run defense in the nation should be able to hold him down. The best way for the Huskers to win this game is to lean on the defense. Let them put the offense in good field position and take advantage of the turnovers. The offense doesn't need to score much, but taking care of the football is crucial. Look for a couple downfield passes from the option attack like last week and a lot of quick and easy throws for Haarberg to make. Satterfield needs to keep his reads simple and allow Haarberg to have open lanes to throw with clean route combinations. I'm anxious to see the Huskers on the road again, and I fully expect a multitude of unnecessary turnovers, penalties and the regular problems we've seen this year, but as Matt Rhule stated, we'll be complaining about an ugly victory, not a loss. Huskers 23, Spartans 14.

Rams at Packers ($)

    I will actually be in attendance for this game at Lambeau as I cheer on my Los Angeles Rams against the Green Bay Packers. I went to the Monday Night game nearly a year ago between these two and it was a blast. I'm excited to see Lambeau again for an afternoon game this time and more excited to see a healthier Rams squad than last season. Neither team has lived up to expectations the last couple weeks, as the Rams have dropped 3 of their last 5 and the Packers have dropped 4 straight. the NFC still has a lot of room available in the playoffs, so this will be a big game for two lower tier teams to move up. My favorite player, Matt Stafford, is questionable with a thumb injury, and with the BYE week ahead, I wouldn't be surprised if he didn't play (much to my dismay). However, that does open the door for the Rams ground game to take more effect. It took a hit with Kyren Williams getting injured, but I thought Royce Freeman and Darrell Henderson Jr. were a great 1-2 punch last week against Dallas, the team was just in too deep of a hole to run more. Getting a ground game established early will open up Kupp and Puka as the Packers load the box. Defensively, Aaron Donald will once again fight through multiple blockers to apply pressure and open up sack opportunities for his teammates. The secondary is the biggest area of concern, but the Packers receivers have struggled to have many breakaway games this season. I like this spot on the road and I like Los Angeles to bounce back with a good statement win before the BYE week. Rams 31, Packers 21. Can't wait to see this game!

Quick Hit Predictions:

#15 Notre Dame at Clemson - The Tigers are spiraling with a 4-4 record and fans voicing their frustrations. Their losses (other than Duke in the opener) have all been close games, but they struggle to make plays to finish it out. Notre Dame needs to be careful with a close game but I think they hold on to win 24-21.

Wisconsin at Indiana ($) - The Badgers couldn't muster up much offense against the Buckeyes and the Hoosiers couldn't slow down Penn State once they got going. I don't expect this to be a very pretty game but On Wisconsin as they win 24-10.

Virginia Tech at #13 Louisville - The Cardinals and Jeff Brohm have been a very big surprise this season, especailly after blanking Duke 23-0 last week. Their blemish against Pitt certainly raises questions of their viability for the ACC Championship, but the Hokies are also in the mix, so this is an important game. VT plays good defense, but they're not at home and they lose on the road. Cardinals win 30-17.

UCF at Cincinnati - The two Big XII newcomers who haven't won a game in conference yet get to change that as they square off in a battle of newbies. Someone will have a 1 in the win column for the conference after this game, and it's hard to say who, but I'll give the nod to the Gold Knights. I thought they had it last week and they've been close. UCF beats Cincy 34-28.

Houston at Baylor - My friend Ahman Green is on the call for this game down in Waco and he could see a classic Big XII barn burner. Neither team runs the ball very well but the air raid is alive in well for this Texas showdown. There are a lot of similar stats for these two teams, but the Cougars double the Bears in penalty yards per game. Sic 'Em as the Bears win at home 38-31.

Cal at #6 Oregon - The Golden Bears missed a golden opportunity to upset USC last week, and now travel to arguably the best team in the conference, the Oregon Ducks. Bo Nix and Bucky Irving lead one of the deadliest offenses in the nation, scoring on 88% of their red zone drives. Ducks big at home 45-10.

Miami at NC State - The Canes have won back to back overtime games at home, but now travel to take on the Wolfpack who are looking to get back in the ACC race. Neither of these teams have fully taken over games, but Miami is starting to play like a team that wants to win consistently. Give me the Hurricanes 28-24 on the road.

BYU at West Virginia - The Cougars have been hot and cold all season, and looked very cold against Texas last week in a 35-6 loss. West Virginia is 1 win away from bowl eligibility and would love nothing more than to be in that Big XII mix. They have the offense to do it, but they need the defense to step up and put BYU away. Take me home country roads as the Mountaineers win 36-23.

#16 Oregon State at Colorado - The Beavers lost a tough one in the desert last week against Arizona in a fantastic PAC-12 after dark showdown. Now they travel for the second week in a row to Boulder to take on the Prime Time Buffalos in another late kick. The Buffs have lost 4 of their last 5 games and could have a difficult time with the power run game brought on by the Beavers. DJ Uiagalelei should have a big night against the 132nd total defense in the nation and I've got Oregon State in a bounce back win 31-17.

The Perfect Parlay:

1. Big Ten Unders - Iowa/Northwestern, Minnesota/Illinios & Wisconsin/Indiana

    - If you're going to start betting on college football games, typically one of the easiest bets is to take the under with the BIG 10 West. Iowa/Northwestern is the lowest Over/Under mark ever recorded in CFB history, but it's still a solid bet. Take the unders.

2. Sneaky Underdogs - Kansas over Iowa State & Arizona over UCLA

    - It's a bit bold of me to predict (and bet on) back to back Arizona upsets of ranked teams, but watching them last week at home was impressive. They are a very well coached football team with tremendous speed and young talent that is ready to ball out. UCLA had 4 turnovers and survived Colorado. I don't think that will be the same story here. Kansas at Iowa State is a dangerous pick, especially with the possible hangover from a major win and going on the road. I'm not bought into the Cyclones though and I like KU to win this.

3. My Faves - Nebraska over Michigan State and Rams over Packers

    - Since I'm going to the Rams game and the Huskers have been on the rise, why not throw a small bet down on both of my teams winning this weekend? Makes it a little sweeter when we all win together. GO BIG RED and GO RAMS!

Sat with my Aunt & Uncle for the Husker game last week, we weren't cold at all!

Thanks for reading my Week 10 Predictions, enjoy your weekend full of football!

#CFBKnowItAll

Alex Fernando