Welcome to the first full weekend of College Football my friends! We had a couple games last weekend, but now it's time for the real deal. Nebraska opens their season on Saturday against South Alabama and everyone else around the nation will be playing as well. This post will have all my predictions for week 1 of the 2019 season and my thoughts on all the big games along with some quick hits on other games to watch. Be sure to let me know what you think with any comments and get hyped, because it's GAME WEEK! Enjoy!
One quick note I'd like to add is about my mother. This is the first football season I will be starting without her here on Earth with me. Words could never describe our combined excitement for Husker and College Football Season to start every year, but now the words cannot describe my pain of starting a football season without her. We connected with each other on so many things in this world, but football was our most special bond. There's no one else I wanted to spend my Saturdays in the fall with, and bringing her to the Colorado game last fall for my last season as a student is something I'll never forget. The smile on her face and the way she cheered louder than all the students standing around us reminds me every moment of every day how special my mom truly was. I will miss our calls immediately following the Husker game to discuss our thoughts as I fought the crowd to Lazlo's. I will miss our Saturday evening texts while watching other games from our respective homes, discussing all the happenings in the CFB world that day while complaining about what the teams we were currently watching were doing wrong. But most of all, I'll miss being at home with her to watch the Huskers play on TV and listening to her jump and scream at every play. There was no one with more passion for this game than her, and I'm so thankful she shared that passion with me. If you want to truly see what her fandom was like, be sure to check out my featured post: "The Biggest Husker Fan" on my blog page. Love you Mom, GO BIG RED!
2018 Prediction Results: 104-77 (57.5%)
Week 0 Prediction Results: 1-1
Overall Prediction Results: 1-1
Georgia Tech at #1 Clemson
The reigning CFB Playoff Champion Tigers will start 2019 with a conference game, putting the pressure on early. The Yellow Jackets return just 9 starters from last year's 7-6 squad that gave up nearly 30 points per game. We all know how this one is going to go. Clemson's offense is completely loaded for a repeat in 2019, and everyone is anxious to see how much better Trevor Lawrence Year 2 is. I cannot wait to see this offense run this year, and Clemson is going to be a very fun team to watch. Tigers win with a big opening statement for 2019 by taking care of GT 40-17.
#14 Utah at BYU The Holy War (Battle for the Beehive Boot)
One of my favorite rivalries out west renews as the Utes travel down to Provo to take on the Cougars. BYU went 7-6 last year, but bring back 17 starters from 2018. They should improve this year with the returning experience. Their defense was solid for most of last season, but offensive struggles and injuries slowed this team down. Looking at their counterpart, the Utes are primed for a big run in 2019. They're my dark horse out west and could take the PAC-12 from Oregon or Washington. They get star QB-RB duo of Tyler Huntley and Zack Moss back from injury, and return 7 starters from a defense that ranked 14th last year in total defense and 16th in scoring, giving up just 19.4 points per game. With the Cougars struggles on offense a year ago, and the rivalry factored in, this could be a tight game. I like Utah pulling away late and if they're going to be my dark horse, they better act like it. Utah beats BYU for the Beehive Boot by a score of 24-13.
Northwestern at #25 Stanford
This is one of the more intriguing games of the weekend in my opinion as the BIG 10 and PAC-12 clash out on the Farm. Pat Fitzgerald and his Wildcats won the BIG 10 West Division last season, and have a new star at QB taking over for 4-year starter, Clayton Thorson. Hunter Johnson is my pick for the Wildcats QB, but there could be a two-man system with TJ Green. Fitzgerald has run a two-man system before, so I'm not surprised at him trying this again. As for Stanford, they return their QB, KJ Costello, but that's about it. Bryce Love is gone, along with top wideout, JJ Arcega-Whiteside. Even with all the talent loss, David Shaw is never a coach to underestimate. Especially since they're playing at home, Stanford could be very difficult to overthrow. I do like the Wildcats though, and I think their experience on defense will separate them in this game. Star Linebacker Paddy Fisher leads a tough group on that side of the ball, and I think they'll make some key plays to flip this game. Northwestern wins 27-17.
Fresno State at USC
The Bulldogs have been tough to beat over the past few seasons, but return just 9 players from their 12-2 season a year ago. There will likely be some drop off from 2018, but their defense will still be tough. That unit gave up just 14.1 points per game last year, good enough for 3rd in the nation. USC ranked 91st in scoring offense last year, so JT Daniels has is work cut out for him. He brings back some talent, but all eyes will be on Southern Cal this year, to see if Clay Helton can really move this team forward. I like the Trojans, but this one could be closer than most people think. USC wins a tough one, 24-20.
#11 Oregon vs. #16 Auburn
Our only ranked versus ranked match-up of the weekend takes place down in Jerry-World as the Ducks take on the Tigers in a rematch from the 2011 BCS Championship. The players have changed, but this should still be an entertaining game. Auburn is breaking in a Freshman QB, but return a lot of talent for him to work with. Bo Nix will be running Gus Malzhan's offense now, and lucky for him, he has a defense to lean on while he learns the ropes. Auburn has one of the most formidable defensive fronts in the nation, led by Nick Coe and Derrick Brown. They will be looking to put lots of pressure on potential Heisman finalist, Oregon QB, Justin Herbert. Herbert turned down the NFL for his senior season with the Ducks, and I believe he has a good reason for it. The webfoots return a whopping 17 starters including Herbert, and won four of their last 5 games in 2018. This team has talent and will prove it on Saturday. I've got the Ducks winning 33-21.
Houston at #4 Oklahoma
Jalen Hurts now takes over for Lincoln Riley and his high-powered offense, which means more video game numbers and a likely invitation to New York lie ahead. I honestly don't think this game will be very close, but I want to bring everyone's attention to Oklahoma's improvements. They return 8 starters on defense and have a new man running that squad with the hiring of Alex Grinch. Grinch is a turnover minded guy, so look for lots of pressure and tactics to force their opponents into mistakes. Houston QB D'Eriq King is quite the talent, so he'll give the Sooners new defense a test early. Watch out for Oklahoma this year, they could be better than last year. Boomer Sooner, 48-33.
South Alabama at #24 Nebraska
The Cornhuskers should start 2019 with a win as the Jaguars come to Lincoln, but there will still be growing pains. As discussed on my podcast (The 2nd String), the Huskers are talented, but very young and inexperienced on offense. Adrian Martinez is a dark horse Heisman candidate, and he'll have to prove it game in and out until the offense fully clicks and his weapons are ready to fire on command. The o-line is not very deep, but there are a few familiar faces with Jamis and Farniok at the Tackle positions. On the defense, the energy flows through Linebacker Mohammed Barry. Mo is the unquestioned leader on the defense, but is about the only experience the Blackshirts have at the linebacker position. The D-line has depth, but needs someone to break out into a star. Lastly, the Huskers gave up nearly 240 yards per game through the air in 2018, and with the deadly QB duo of Montez and Shenault Jr. awaiting in Boulder next week, the secondary better get some reps in quick. This should be a good tune up game for the Huskers, but next week will truly tell what this team is going to look like. Nebraska handles South Alabama 42-17.
Quick Hit Predictions:
UCLA at Cincinnati- The Bearcats finished last season with an impressive 11-2 record a year ago and return 14 players including star QB, Desmond Ridder. The Bruins are moving in the right direction under Chip Kelley, but have a brutal schedule ahead of them. Their year will be tough, and it starts with a loss. Bearcats beat the Bruins 37-20.
Purdue at Nevada- The Boilermakers have some talent to replace, but with Rondale Moore, it seems anything is possible. I like this game because Nevada can be a tricky place to win. The Wolfpack should provide a challenging yet beatable test for Purdue to start the year, but I've got the Boilermakers. Rondale Moore is too much to stop and the stud Sophomore leads them to a 34-21 victory.
Colorado State vs. Colorado- This one is more about wanting to see what the Buffaloes look like under new Head Coach Mel Tucker, and there's no better way to do that than to kick it off with a rivalry game. Tucker's team is lead by the deadly QB-WR duo of Steven Montez and Laviska Shenault Jr. They're both healthy and they're both going to be tough to slow down. Buffs win big against their in-state rival, 37-13.
Boise State at Florida State- A bit of an under the radar game, but the Broncos are trying to schedule some upper level competition without anyone noticing. They have to replace QB Brett Rypien and RB Alexander Mattison, but never doubt the boys from the smurf-turf. On the flip, 'Noles fans are anxious to see what Willie Taggert has for year two. QB James Blackmon has experience, and hopefully his line does too. I like the Seminoles at home, but this one will be interesting, could go either way. FSU 33, Boise State 27.
#3 Georgia at Vanderbilt- The SEC East division champs will travel to Nashville to take on conference foe Vanderbilt for their opening weekend. Georgia is still loaded and still favored in the East, so this game shouldn't be too much of a headache. Vandy needs to break in a new QB and that's never fun against the Bulldogs. Georgia starts 2019 strong with a 34-14 victory.
Thank you for reading all of my Week 1 Predictions and welcome to the 2019 College Football Season! Be sure to follow my CFB Podcast, The 2nd String, as well. GO BIG RED!
#CFBKnowItAll
Alex Fernando
Thursday, August 29, 2019
Saturday, August 24, 2019
2019 Power 5 Conference Predictions
College Football is back today ladies and gentlemen!! I'm so excited for the season to kickoff, but before it does, I need to make all my predictions for the upcoming season. This post will focus on my predictions for all the Power 5 Conferences along with my quick-hit Husker analysis and finally my Playoff & Heisman predictions. As always, please be sure to subscribe and comment about what other CFB topics you'd like me to cover. Now, onto the 2019 Power 5 Conference Predictions, enjoy!
Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC)
2018 Winner: Clemson
I wanted to start with the ACC because it's going to be fairly short and sweet. Clemson is going to win again. Unless the Tigers royally screw everything up, they should have a fairly simple path toward another ACC title. Their offense is absolutely stacked with Trevor Lawrence at QB, Travis Etienne at RB and just absurd talent across the board at wide receiver. The defense loses talent, but with how Dabo Swinney and his staff recruit, I wouldn't expect too much of a drop off. Syracuse is probably the biggest threat in the Atlantic division, and hosting the Tigers in the dome could result in another upset like 2017. The Orange square off against the Tigers on September 14th, so we'll learn a lot about the ACC early on this year. QB Tommy DeVito is going to have to be near flawless to compete with Lawrence if the 'Cuse want to come out on top. The rest of the Atlantic should improve but won't be able to touch Clemson. FSU will look to get bowl eligible again after year one with Willie Taggart and NC State will be solid, but likely slower on offense after losing QB Ryan Finely (finally, I swear this dude is 30 by now). Wake Forest has some playmakers and will hang around for a bit in games, they should be bowling by the end of the year. Boston College will run well with AJ Dillon, but don't have much beyond that and Louisville is not going to do well, that's just a fact.
The Coastal division is where things can get a bit interesting as Virginia looks to climb out and lead the pack. Bronco Mendenhall's squad was tough last year, and return 14 players from the 2018 team, including 8 on a defense that ranked 20th in total defense. Bryce Perkins is back to lead the offense and he'll be looking to break the Commonwealth Cup Curse that plagues the Cavaliers. The Hokies of Virginia Tech have held onto the cup since 2003 and are the primary hurdle standing in UVA's way of a conference title game birth. Justin Fuente will look to keep his team steady this time around, and Ryan Willis at QB should help that. Willis took over for Josh Jackson last year and threw for over 2,700 yards with 24 TDs and 9 picks. Miami (FL) is another tempting pick in the ACC, but I'm not entirely convinced the U is back. They do have a favorable schedule though, catching VT and UVA at home. Pitt has to replace two 1,000+ yard backs and Duke lost just about everyone. Finally, UNC brings back experience, not just with 14 returning starters, but with veteran coach Mack Brown too! It would be hilarious if Mack took the Heels to the ACC title game right away, but I've got Virginia going to lost to Clemson. They have a tough defense and get the Hokies at home, I think this could be the year. Regardless, Clemson wins the ACC and wins big.
PAC-12
2018 Winner: Washington
The PAC-12 could be very entertaining to watch this year, especially up in the Pacific Northwest. Star QB Justin Herbert passed up being a 1st round draft pick for one more season with the Ducks, and Oregon could be the team to beat because of it. They return 16 starters in addition to Herbert, and that experience will be needed early on. They open the season in Cowboy Stadium against Auburn, but have to travel to Washington, Stanford and USC throughout the season. The trip against the Huskies will likely be the biggest as Washington will be looking to repeat. Georgia QB transfer Jacob Eason should give the offense some ease after Jake Browning's departure, but the big question is how quickly will the defense get into form after losing 9 starters from a squad that ranked 12th in total defense last year. Mike Leach and Wazzu are always fun to watch, but won't be quite as deadly as they have been in previous years. They do return 6 starters from a solid defense, but with a new QB and a road schedule that includes Utah, Arizona State, Oregon, Cal and Washington, I don't see them getting much farther than a bowl. Stanford is always a team to watch, even while in re-build mode. The Fightin' Trees only return 9 starters from a year ago, but David Shaw always gets his team to perform, and he still has QB KJ Costello to lean on with the offense. Won't be a title contender, but will be a headache. My dark horse last year was Cal, and I want to see them live up to that. Their defense returns 7 starters, but the offense has been a weak point under Justin Wilcox. Oregon State returns 16 starters, but they're Oregon State.
Down South, it's a tight race and could go a number of different directions. UCLA returns 19 starters for Chip Kelley's second year, so the Bruins will be on the rise. USC, Arizona State and Arizona are all close, but still need to grow before they're claiming conference titles. JT Daniels will lead the Trojans against a brutal schedule that includes trips to Washington, Notre Dame, Colorado, Arizona State and Cal. The Sun Devils have a favorable schedule, hosting most of their toughest games except for Utah, but they need to replace all-star wideout N'Keal Harry and QB Manny Wilkins. Arizona will look to improve in year two under Kevin Sumiln, and I expect Khalil Tate to be a big part of that. Colorado will be breaking in a new head coach, so that just leaves one team. The Utah Utes are the best pick for the south as they return 14 starters from last year, including the deadly QB-RB duo of Tyler Huntley and Zack Moss, who both missed the last half of the season with injuries. Their defense will be one of the best in the nation and I think they'll make a splash this year. I've got them squaring off against the Ducks in the PAC-12 Title game, and it's a tough pick after that. I'm going to go bold and say Utah. I think the Utes are prepared this year after falling short and they surprise everyone in the PAC-12!
Big XII Conference
2018 Winner: Oklahoma
After 4 straight Big XII Titles and back to back Hesiman/#1 overall draft picks, can the Sooners keep Booming? With the talent returning on Lincoln Riley's squad, it's definitely likely. Alabama transfer, Jalen Hurts, has now taken over the offense, which means the points should keep rolling for Oklahoma, who averaged 48.4 per game last year, best in the nation. Defense has been the issue in Norman over the past few seasons, but 8 returning starters on that side of the ball should help. Texas says they're back, and 2019 is their chance to prove it. The Horns only return 8 players total from 2018, but QB Sam Ehlinger along with wideouts Collin Johnson and Devin Duvernay will give all defenses headaches. Outside of Texas and OU, the Big XII drops off a bit. Kansas State begins the post-Bill Snyder era while Kansas starts the Les Miles era. Oklahoma State loses a ton of talent and will need to rebuild. Baylor and TCU are trying to climb back from their own rebuilds. West Virginia is a project and a half with a new coach plus Will Grier and crew gone. That leaves Texas Tech and Iowa State. The Red Raiders have a lot of young talent, but learning Matt Wells' system is no easy task. He brings a very fast-paced, up-tempo offense to Lubbock, which they're used to. However, defense is the concern (as with every Big XII team) and I'm not sure they'll have enough to fool the Horns or Sooners. Iowa State sits in the number 3 spot in the conference, and returns 16 starters from last year's team. Matt Campbell is one of the hottest coaches in the nation, and this could be his last season in Ames. We'll see if he can make it count! I'd love to see Iowa State sneak into the Big XII title game, but I've got a repeat of Texas and Oklahoma. The winner will likely be the opposite of who wins the Red River Rivalry, but I like Oklahoma again. I think there's too much firepower with that offense and a new DC should help improve the defense enough to win the Big XII and probably earn another playoff spot.
South Eastern Conference (SEC)
2018 Winner: Alabama
We'll start in the West division because it's easy. Alabama will win the West because they're Alabama and everyone screws up all chances of winning against them. The Tide look to roll through their competition with one of the most high-octane offenses in the nation. Star QB Tua Tugovailoa has every weapon imaginable with a WR corps that will all be playing on Sundays very soon. As always, the Tide will rumble with a steady run game too, but there could be some growing pains with new signal caller, Steve Sarkisian. The defense loses a lot of key players, but I doubt Nick Saben will let that keep his team from being at the top again. As for everyone chasing the Elephant (figuratively and literally) in the West, LSU is almost always the number two choice. The Tigers are ranked 6th to start the season, but will their offense live up to the hype? Eight returning starters on defense for LSU should make them one of the best in the nation again, but most of the pressure lies on the shoulders of QB Joe Burrow and the Tiger offense. Their schedule is brutal (as most are in the SEC), so the Bayou Bengals need to find a way to score quick. Elsewhere in the division, Texas A&M and Auburn look to get back into conference title contention. Auburn has a new QB for Gus Malzahn to work with, and their defensive front four is one of the most formidable in the nation. It's always a toss up to see where these Tigers will end up, but I think this is one of Malzahn's 9-10 win seasons. The Aggies are on the rise, but they're about to smack into one of the toughest schedules out there for year two with Jimbo Fisher. Kellen Mond is going to play well, but he'll need help navigating road games against Clemson and back to back ones at Georgia and LSU late in the season. They can cause headaches, but no conference titles. Mississippi State will rebuild, but has talent, and the Rebels are still recovering from sanctions, but have depth.
Over on the East, there might be some competition for that top spot. Georgia is the heavy favorite and would like another shot at taking down Bama. But don't be sleeping on the Gators, Dan Mullen has them ready to chomp! The boys down in Gainesville return 13 starters, including 8 on defense. Their secondary will be one of the best in the nations and if Feleipe Franks can get some help with the ground game, they could really push the Bulldogs for that top spot. Unfortunately they do get Auburn and LSU in cross conference play in back to back weeks. Georgia has Auburn and A&M late in the year. The rest of the East shouldn't do too much, Kentucky will likely drop a bit after a stellar season last year, but South Carolina is a team on the rise, but their schedule doesn't open anything up. Vandy likes to hang tough for about 2-2.5 quarters. I still like Georgia to win the East, but Florida will take it with one slip. No matter what, the Tide Roll to another SEC title in 2019.
BIG 10 Conference
2018 Winner: Ohio State
The BIG 10 Conference is always fun to watch, and with a national best, seven teams, in the AP pre-season top 25, this will be an entertaining year for the conference. The East division is easier to break down, so we'll start there. The regular heavy hitters are still at the top, with THE (trademarked) Ohio State sitting on top. The Buckeyes have won three of the last five East titles, but the time of Urban Meyer is over. Ryan Day is in charge now, and has a team loaded with talent to work with. Georgia QB transfer Justin Fields is ready to roll and has some top notch receivers and JK Dobbins in the backfield to help him out. The defense should be improved from last year, so look for the Buckeyes to make a playoff push if they can get out of the BIG 10 with minimal scratches. Michigan is the heavy favorite in the East with Urban Meyer gone, can Jim Harbaugh finally beat Ohio State? I'm still not buying into the Wolverines, and I think we could see a similar result from last year with all the hype crumbling at the end of the year. Shae Patterson is back at QB for the maize and blue, but there are a lot of holes on defense to replace. Don't expect any big things from Michigan, you'll likely be disappointed. The next two teams in the East are Penn State and Michigan State. Both are always a force to be reckoned with and never a team to sleep on. I think Sparty has a bit more of an edge to compete this season as they return 17 players from a year ago including QB Brian Lewerke and 8 starters from a defense that gave up just 17.2 points per game. If they can get their offense clicking, the East division is more than within their reach. However, they have to survive road games to Ohio State, Wisconsin and Michigan. The Nittany Lions have to replace star QB Trace McSorely, but James Franklin always seems to have something up his sleeve, so watch this team. Maryland and Indiana have talent, but won't be more than an occasional headache. Rutgers is a non-factor as usual.
The West division has been the talk of the nation, because apart from Illinois, just about everyone in the division has a shot at the crown. The traditional favorites are Iowa and Wisconsin of course, and they will do what they normally do. Run the ball, play solid defense and keep mistakes to a minimum. Wisconsin looks to improve from last year where the defense was sub-par and the offense under performed. Johnathan Taylor, arguably the best running back in the nation, should take most of the load. Iowa has to replace two first round Tight-end draft picks so Nate Stanley has someone to throw to. Their defense will be stout though and I doubt they'll give up much more than the 17.8 points per game they gave up last season. The 2018 division champs, Northwestern, have to replace 4-year starter, Clayton Thorson, at QB, but have a pesky defense to keep them in games while their offense finds their step. Minnesota is on the rise with PJ Fleck in his third season, and with a favorable schedule, their offense could pick up the pace on some other teams in the West. My dark horse for the division is the little team from West Lafayette, the Purdue Boilermakers. Their offense needs some retooling, but with 9 returning starters on defense, they could keep games close while they find someone to get the ball to Rondale Moore. Finally, we look at the team with all the hype, my very own Nebraska CornHuskers. Scott Frost year two is about all you need to know for the hype around this team. Everyone is waiting to see if he can mimic the success from UCF in year two with Nebraska, but this team has a ways to go. There are a lot of new faces and young talent eager to take the field for the Huskers, but winning the division is never an easy task. Luckily for the Big Red, they have most of their toughest games at home with Ohio State, Wisconsin, Northwestern and Iowa all coming to Lincoln. The team has the talent and the coach to get it done, but I'm not entirely sure it will all come together soon enough to get to Indianapolis. As mentioned earlier, the West is very crowded, but I like Wisconsin to come out on top. Iowa will be consistent, but usually has a random loss that screws up their chances, and Wisconsin's ground game with Taylor should be as formidable as ever. This side of the BIG 10 is a toss up though, tie breaker wins will be key at the end of the season. Overall, I've got the Buckeyes winning the BIG 10 yet again. I think Day will pick up fairly close to where Urban Meyer left off, and the stocks of talent they have will keep them from slipping up too much. Ohio State wins another BIG 10 Championship.
CFB Playoff Team Predictions
Clemson, Alabama, Oklahoma & Ohio State
Heisman Watch Predictions
Trevor Lawrence (QB - Clemson)
Tua Tagovailoa (QB - Alabama)
Travis Etienne (RB - Clemson)
Jalen Hurts (QB - Oklahoma)
Justin Herbert (QB - Oregon)
Johnathan Taylor (RB - Wisconsin)
Arizona at Hawaii
Two high powered offensive attacks clash out in the Pacific as the Wildcats travel to Aloha Stadium to take on the Rainbow Warriors. I wouldn't expect too much defense in this one, so there should be a lot of points. This game features two dynamic QBs in Arizona's speedster, Kahlil Tate and Hawaii's gunslinger, Cole McDonald. The Rainbow Warriors like to air it out and that should work well as the Wildcats ranked 121st in the nation last year for pass defense, giving up an average of 270 yards per game. However, to flip the script, Hawaii's run defense was ranked 103rd last year, giving up just over 200 yards per game on the ground, which isn't good if you're playing a (healthy) Kahlil Tate. This could be back and forth for a while, but I think Tate and the Wildcat ground game will prevail. Arizona 37, Hawaii 24.
Miami vs. #8 Florida
The first game of our college football season features two long-time rivals in the Gators and Hurricanes from the state of Florida. UF and Miami square off in a battle for bragging rights in the sunshine state. The Gators are moving into year two of the Dan Mullen era after coming off a New Year's Six victory (complete beat down) against Michigan. The Canes are looking to build up momentum back in their program, but have a lot of question marks with a young team. Redshirt Freshman QB, Jarren Williams, beat out Ohio State transfer Tate Martell for the starting job, so all eyes will be on him as he leads the Miami offense into the teeth of the Gator's defense. Florida returns 8 starters from last year's defense and will likely bring a lot of pressure to keep Williams under stress. Offensively, look for the Gators to grind it out early as Feleipe Franks settles in for another season. He finished off 2018 on a hot streak, and I anticipate more of the same this year. Florida is one of my key teams to watch in 2019, and they're going to show you why early one. The Gators win this one 30-14.
Thank you for reading my Power 5 Conference Predictions along with some other quick hits on the Playoffs, Heisman hopefuls and the two games this week. Be sure to keep up with all of my game predictions and Husker reflection posts throughout the season and GO BIG RED! Football is back baby!!
#CFBKnowItAll
Alex Fernando
Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC)
2018 Winner: Clemson
I wanted to start with the ACC because it's going to be fairly short and sweet. Clemson is going to win again. Unless the Tigers royally screw everything up, they should have a fairly simple path toward another ACC title. Their offense is absolutely stacked with Trevor Lawrence at QB, Travis Etienne at RB and just absurd talent across the board at wide receiver. The defense loses talent, but with how Dabo Swinney and his staff recruit, I wouldn't expect too much of a drop off. Syracuse is probably the biggest threat in the Atlantic division, and hosting the Tigers in the dome could result in another upset like 2017. The Orange square off against the Tigers on September 14th, so we'll learn a lot about the ACC early on this year. QB Tommy DeVito is going to have to be near flawless to compete with Lawrence if the 'Cuse want to come out on top. The rest of the Atlantic should improve but won't be able to touch Clemson. FSU will look to get bowl eligible again after year one with Willie Taggart and NC State will be solid, but likely slower on offense after losing QB Ryan Finely (finally, I swear this dude is 30 by now). Wake Forest has some playmakers and will hang around for a bit in games, they should be bowling by the end of the year. Boston College will run well with AJ Dillon, but don't have much beyond that and Louisville is not going to do well, that's just a fact.
The Coastal division is where things can get a bit interesting as Virginia looks to climb out and lead the pack. Bronco Mendenhall's squad was tough last year, and return 14 players from the 2018 team, including 8 on a defense that ranked 20th in total defense. Bryce Perkins is back to lead the offense and he'll be looking to break the Commonwealth Cup Curse that plagues the Cavaliers. The Hokies of Virginia Tech have held onto the cup since 2003 and are the primary hurdle standing in UVA's way of a conference title game birth. Justin Fuente will look to keep his team steady this time around, and Ryan Willis at QB should help that. Willis took over for Josh Jackson last year and threw for over 2,700 yards with 24 TDs and 9 picks. Miami (FL) is another tempting pick in the ACC, but I'm not entirely convinced the U is back. They do have a favorable schedule though, catching VT and UVA at home. Pitt has to replace two 1,000+ yard backs and Duke lost just about everyone. Finally, UNC brings back experience, not just with 14 returning starters, but with veteran coach Mack Brown too! It would be hilarious if Mack took the Heels to the ACC title game right away, but I've got Virginia going to lost to Clemson. They have a tough defense and get the Hokies at home, I think this could be the year. Regardless, Clemson wins the ACC and wins big.
PAC-12
2018 Winner: Washington
The PAC-12 could be very entertaining to watch this year, especially up in the Pacific Northwest. Star QB Justin Herbert passed up being a 1st round draft pick for one more season with the Ducks, and Oregon could be the team to beat because of it. They return 16 starters in addition to Herbert, and that experience will be needed early on. They open the season in Cowboy Stadium against Auburn, but have to travel to Washington, Stanford and USC throughout the season. The trip against the Huskies will likely be the biggest as Washington will be looking to repeat. Georgia QB transfer Jacob Eason should give the offense some ease after Jake Browning's departure, but the big question is how quickly will the defense get into form after losing 9 starters from a squad that ranked 12th in total defense last year. Mike Leach and Wazzu are always fun to watch, but won't be quite as deadly as they have been in previous years. They do return 6 starters from a solid defense, but with a new QB and a road schedule that includes Utah, Arizona State, Oregon, Cal and Washington, I don't see them getting much farther than a bowl. Stanford is always a team to watch, even while in re-build mode. The Fightin' Trees only return 9 starters from a year ago, but David Shaw always gets his team to perform, and he still has QB KJ Costello to lean on with the offense. Won't be a title contender, but will be a headache. My dark horse last year was Cal, and I want to see them live up to that. Their defense returns 7 starters, but the offense has been a weak point under Justin Wilcox. Oregon State returns 16 starters, but they're Oregon State.
Down South, it's a tight race and could go a number of different directions. UCLA returns 19 starters for Chip Kelley's second year, so the Bruins will be on the rise. USC, Arizona State and Arizona are all close, but still need to grow before they're claiming conference titles. JT Daniels will lead the Trojans against a brutal schedule that includes trips to Washington, Notre Dame, Colorado, Arizona State and Cal. The Sun Devils have a favorable schedule, hosting most of their toughest games except for Utah, but they need to replace all-star wideout N'Keal Harry and QB Manny Wilkins. Arizona will look to improve in year two under Kevin Sumiln, and I expect Khalil Tate to be a big part of that. Colorado will be breaking in a new head coach, so that just leaves one team. The Utah Utes are the best pick for the south as they return 14 starters from last year, including the deadly QB-RB duo of Tyler Huntley and Zack Moss, who both missed the last half of the season with injuries. Their defense will be one of the best in the nation and I think they'll make a splash this year. I've got them squaring off against the Ducks in the PAC-12 Title game, and it's a tough pick after that. I'm going to go bold and say Utah. I think the Utes are prepared this year after falling short and they surprise everyone in the PAC-12!
Big XII Conference
2018 Winner: Oklahoma
After 4 straight Big XII Titles and back to back Hesiman/#1 overall draft picks, can the Sooners keep Booming? With the talent returning on Lincoln Riley's squad, it's definitely likely. Alabama transfer, Jalen Hurts, has now taken over the offense, which means the points should keep rolling for Oklahoma, who averaged 48.4 per game last year, best in the nation. Defense has been the issue in Norman over the past few seasons, but 8 returning starters on that side of the ball should help. Texas says they're back, and 2019 is their chance to prove it. The Horns only return 8 players total from 2018, but QB Sam Ehlinger along with wideouts Collin Johnson and Devin Duvernay will give all defenses headaches. Outside of Texas and OU, the Big XII drops off a bit. Kansas State begins the post-Bill Snyder era while Kansas starts the Les Miles era. Oklahoma State loses a ton of talent and will need to rebuild. Baylor and TCU are trying to climb back from their own rebuilds. West Virginia is a project and a half with a new coach plus Will Grier and crew gone. That leaves Texas Tech and Iowa State. The Red Raiders have a lot of young talent, but learning Matt Wells' system is no easy task. He brings a very fast-paced, up-tempo offense to Lubbock, which they're used to. However, defense is the concern (as with every Big XII team) and I'm not sure they'll have enough to fool the Horns or Sooners. Iowa State sits in the number 3 spot in the conference, and returns 16 starters from last year's team. Matt Campbell is one of the hottest coaches in the nation, and this could be his last season in Ames. We'll see if he can make it count! I'd love to see Iowa State sneak into the Big XII title game, but I've got a repeat of Texas and Oklahoma. The winner will likely be the opposite of who wins the Red River Rivalry, but I like Oklahoma again. I think there's too much firepower with that offense and a new DC should help improve the defense enough to win the Big XII and probably earn another playoff spot.
South Eastern Conference (SEC)
2018 Winner: Alabama
We'll start in the West division because it's easy. Alabama will win the West because they're Alabama and everyone screws up all chances of winning against them. The Tide look to roll through their competition with one of the most high-octane offenses in the nation. Star QB Tua Tugovailoa has every weapon imaginable with a WR corps that will all be playing on Sundays very soon. As always, the Tide will rumble with a steady run game too, but there could be some growing pains with new signal caller, Steve Sarkisian. The defense loses a lot of key players, but I doubt Nick Saben will let that keep his team from being at the top again. As for everyone chasing the Elephant (figuratively and literally) in the West, LSU is almost always the number two choice. The Tigers are ranked 6th to start the season, but will their offense live up to the hype? Eight returning starters on defense for LSU should make them one of the best in the nation again, but most of the pressure lies on the shoulders of QB Joe Burrow and the Tiger offense. Their schedule is brutal (as most are in the SEC), so the Bayou Bengals need to find a way to score quick. Elsewhere in the division, Texas A&M and Auburn look to get back into conference title contention. Auburn has a new QB for Gus Malzahn to work with, and their defensive front four is one of the most formidable in the nation. It's always a toss up to see where these Tigers will end up, but I think this is one of Malzahn's 9-10 win seasons. The Aggies are on the rise, but they're about to smack into one of the toughest schedules out there for year two with Jimbo Fisher. Kellen Mond is going to play well, but he'll need help navigating road games against Clemson and back to back ones at Georgia and LSU late in the season. They can cause headaches, but no conference titles. Mississippi State will rebuild, but has talent, and the Rebels are still recovering from sanctions, but have depth.
Over on the East, there might be some competition for that top spot. Georgia is the heavy favorite and would like another shot at taking down Bama. But don't be sleeping on the Gators, Dan Mullen has them ready to chomp! The boys down in Gainesville return 13 starters, including 8 on defense. Their secondary will be one of the best in the nations and if Feleipe Franks can get some help with the ground game, they could really push the Bulldogs for that top spot. Unfortunately they do get Auburn and LSU in cross conference play in back to back weeks. Georgia has Auburn and A&M late in the year. The rest of the East shouldn't do too much, Kentucky will likely drop a bit after a stellar season last year, but South Carolina is a team on the rise, but their schedule doesn't open anything up. Vandy likes to hang tough for about 2-2.5 quarters. I still like Georgia to win the East, but Florida will take it with one slip. No matter what, the Tide Roll to another SEC title in 2019.
BIG 10 Conference
2018 Winner: Ohio State
The BIG 10 Conference is always fun to watch, and with a national best, seven teams, in the AP pre-season top 25, this will be an entertaining year for the conference. The East division is easier to break down, so we'll start there. The regular heavy hitters are still at the top, with THE (trademarked) Ohio State sitting on top. The Buckeyes have won three of the last five East titles, but the time of Urban Meyer is over. Ryan Day is in charge now, and has a team loaded with talent to work with. Georgia QB transfer Justin Fields is ready to roll and has some top notch receivers and JK Dobbins in the backfield to help him out. The defense should be improved from last year, so look for the Buckeyes to make a playoff push if they can get out of the BIG 10 with minimal scratches. Michigan is the heavy favorite in the East with Urban Meyer gone, can Jim Harbaugh finally beat Ohio State? I'm still not buying into the Wolverines, and I think we could see a similar result from last year with all the hype crumbling at the end of the year. Shae Patterson is back at QB for the maize and blue, but there are a lot of holes on defense to replace. Don't expect any big things from Michigan, you'll likely be disappointed. The next two teams in the East are Penn State and Michigan State. Both are always a force to be reckoned with and never a team to sleep on. I think Sparty has a bit more of an edge to compete this season as they return 17 players from a year ago including QB Brian Lewerke and 8 starters from a defense that gave up just 17.2 points per game. If they can get their offense clicking, the East division is more than within their reach. However, they have to survive road games to Ohio State, Wisconsin and Michigan. The Nittany Lions have to replace star QB Trace McSorely, but James Franklin always seems to have something up his sleeve, so watch this team. Maryland and Indiana have talent, but won't be more than an occasional headache. Rutgers is a non-factor as usual.
The West division has been the talk of the nation, because apart from Illinois, just about everyone in the division has a shot at the crown. The traditional favorites are Iowa and Wisconsin of course, and they will do what they normally do. Run the ball, play solid defense and keep mistakes to a minimum. Wisconsin looks to improve from last year where the defense was sub-par and the offense under performed. Johnathan Taylor, arguably the best running back in the nation, should take most of the load. Iowa has to replace two first round Tight-end draft picks so Nate Stanley has someone to throw to. Their defense will be stout though and I doubt they'll give up much more than the 17.8 points per game they gave up last season. The 2018 division champs, Northwestern, have to replace 4-year starter, Clayton Thorson, at QB, but have a pesky defense to keep them in games while their offense finds their step. Minnesota is on the rise with PJ Fleck in his third season, and with a favorable schedule, their offense could pick up the pace on some other teams in the West. My dark horse for the division is the little team from West Lafayette, the Purdue Boilermakers. Their offense needs some retooling, but with 9 returning starters on defense, they could keep games close while they find someone to get the ball to Rondale Moore. Finally, we look at the team with all the hype, my very own Nebraska CornHuskers. Scott Frost year two is about all you need to know for the hype around this team. Everyone is waiting to see if he can mimic the success from UCF in year two with Nebraska, but this team has a ways to go. There are a lot of new faces and young talent eager to take the field for the Huskers, but winning the division is never an easy task. Luckily for the Big Red, they have most of their toughest games at home with Ohio State, Wisconsin, Northwestern and Iowa all coming to Lincoln. The team has the talent and the coach to get it done, but I'm not entirely sure it will all come together soon enough to get to Indianapolis. As mentioned earlier, the West is very crowded, but I like Wisconsin to come out on top. Iowa will be consistent, but usually has a random loss that screws up their chances, and Wisconsin's ground game with Taylor should be as formidable as ever. This side of the BIG 10 is a toss up though, tie breaker wins will be key at the end of the season. Overall, I've got the Buckeyes winning the BIG 10 yet again. I think Day will pick up fairly close to where Urban Meyer left off, and the stocks of talent they have will keep them from slipping up too much. Ohio State wins another BIG 10 Championship.
CFB Playoff Team Predictions
Clemson, Alabama, Oklahoma & Ohio State
Heisman Watch Predictions
Trevor Lawrence (QB - Clemson)
Tua Tagovailoa (QB - Alabama)
Travis Etienne (RB - Clemson)
Jalen Hurts (QB - Oklahoma)
Justin Herbert (QB - Oregon)
Johnathan Taylor (RB - Wisconsin)
Arizona at Hawaii
Two high powered offensive attacks clash out in the Pacific as the Wildcats travel to Aloha Stadium to take on the Rainbow Warriors. I wouldn't expect too much defense in this one, so there should be a lot of points. This game features two dynamic QBs in Arizona's speedster, Kahlil Tate and Hawaii's gunslinger, Cole McDonald. The Rainbow Warriors like to air it out and that should work well as the Wildcats ranked 121st in the nation last year for pass defense, giving up an average of 270 yards per game. However, to flip the script, Hawaii's run defense was ranked 103rd last year, giving up just over 200 yards per game on the ground, which isn't good if you're playing a (healthy) Kahlil Tate. This could be back and forth for a while, but I think Tate and the Wildcat ground game will prevail. Arizona 37, Hawaii 24.
Miami vs. #8 Florida
The first game of our college football season features two long-time rivals in the Gators and Hurricanes from the state of Florida. UF and Miami square off in a battle for bragging rights in the sunshine state. The Gators are moving into year two of the Dan Mullen era after coming off a New Year's Six victory (complete beat down) against Michigan. The Canes are looking to build up momentum back in their program, but have a lot of question marks with a young team. Redshirt Freshman QB, Jarren Williams, beat out Ohio State transfer Tate Martell for the starting job, so all eyes will be on him as he leads the Miami offense into the teeth of the Gator's defense. Florida returns 8 starters from last year's defense and will likely bring a lot of pressure to keep Williams under stress. Offensively, look for the Gators to grind it out early as Feleipe Franks settles in for another season. He finished off 2018 on a hot streak, and I anticipate more of the same this year. Florida is one of my key teams to watch in 2019, and they're going to show you why early one. The Gators win this one 30-14.
Thank you for reading my Power 5 Conference Predictions along with some other quick hits on the Playoffs, Heisman hopefuls and the two games this week. Be sure to keep up with all of my game predictions and Husker reflection posts throughout the season and GO BIG RED! Football is back baby!!
#CFBKnowItAll
Alex Fernando
Friday, August 23, 2019
2019 G5 Conference Predictions
Hello friends! As we near the start of another College Football season, I want to welcome you back to your favorite source for CFB news, analysis and predictions. We'll start off this year as I always do, with my conference predictions and pre-season thoughts. Be sure to subscribe with your email and follow me on social media to keep up with all of the posts this season. I'm always happy to post about new topics based on your comments as well, so if there's something interesting in the CFB world you'd like me to give my perspective on, please let me know! This post is focused on the G5 schools, so there's not much in terms of CFB Playoff implications, but there are definitely some upset minded teams. Without further ado, here are my Group of 5 Conference Predictions for the 2019 season, enjoy!
Sun Belt Conference
2018 Winner: Appalachian State
The Sun Belt is not a conference often watched by most major CFB fans, but there are some teams slated in non-conference with big opponents that could cause some headaches early on in the season. As usual, Troy and Appalachian State will battle out for the crown in the East while Arkansas State and Louisiana Lafayette will fight for the West. Georgia Southern surprised everyone with a 10-3 record last season, even beating eventual conference champ App State in October 34-14. The Eagles bring back 12 starters from a year ago and will look to throw their name into the hat for a Conference Title as well. As is the case with most G5 schools, the rest of the division is dealing with lots of rebuilding and young coaches. UL Monroe should push for a bowl game with 15 starters returning from last year including QB Caleb Evans. The key games to watch will be the Ragin' Cajuns at the Red Wolves (10/17) and the Mountaineers at the Trojans (11/29). I believe App State has the best chance of repeating as they return 16 starters from last year's 11-2 squad. Many people forget they nearly knocked off #10 Penn State in the opening week last year, losing 45-38 in OT. Star QB Zac Thomas returns from throwing 21 TDs last year and the offensive line returns 4 out of 5 starters. A new head coach could result in growing pains, but with this much experience returning it's hard to see the Mountaineers anywhere but the top. Troy has a new coach as well, with 12 returning starters including RB B.J. Smith. Over in the west, Arkansas State's home field advantage against UL Lafayette could be the difference maker between two teams with lots of returning talent and new QBs. I took the Red Wolves on this side last year and missed, but not this year. Arkansas State and Appalachian State will play for the Sun Belt Conference Championship and I've got the Mountaineers claiming their third straight title.
Conference USA (C-USA)
2018 Winner: UAB
Conference USA is always a fun conference to keep tabs on as some sneaky teams like to hide with star players. The Blazers of UAB won last year's title, but a repeat will be difficult as they're only returning 8 starters from 2018. The West division will likely be taken over by the Mean Green of North Texas and their star QB, Mason Fine. I said it at the beginning of last season and I'll say it again, people are missing out if you don't watch Fine play. This kid has thrown for 3,700+ yards in each of the last two seasons and cut his interceptions down by 10 last year, posting an impressive 27 to 5 TD to INT ratio. Some of his top wideouts as well as their leading rusher return for the 2019 campaign, and if they get their defense in shape, I don't know if there's another team in the West that's deep enough to compete. Southern Miss and Louisiana Tech are typically at the top of the division, and both of them get North Texas at home, so there's an advantage. The Golden Eagles are probably the biggest threat with their defense that ranked 3rd in the nation with total defense last year. If they can get an offensive attack up to speed early, they're the biggest threat to take the West. They do return 10 starters on that side of the ball, so there's a lot of experience.
Over in the East division, Marshall and Florida International hold the top spots. Both teams return a lot of players and experience from last year, so their showdown on November 30th will likely decide the division. FIU returns 16 starters while Marshall brings back 14. The Heard will pound it out with a ground game that returns 4 starters on the o-line and a double-trouble running back duo that combined for 1,233 yards and 8 TDs last year. The Panthers averaged 34.6 points per game on offense, but were a bit inconsistent at times. Marshall has the edge in scheduling, getting FIU and Louisiana Tech at home while missing the other heavy hitters from the West. FIU has to travel to many of their tougher games, so we'll see what they're made of come November. The dark horse team from the East would be the Lane Kiffin-lead Owls of Florida Atlantic. FAU will be lead by former Seminoles QB, Deondre Francois, so their offense could be entertaining this year. I like Marshall and their dominant ground game to come out of the East. They'll likely square off against Southern Miss in the C-USA championship for my prediction, but I like the Golden Eagles. Southern Miss is my prediction for the 2019 C-USA Champion.
Mid-American Conference (MAC)
2018 Winner: Northern Illinois
The Mid-American Conference is always one of the most difficult to predict in my opinion. There's a large crowd of talented teams at the top, and there hasn't been a repeat conference champion since 2011-12. Ohio is always one of my favorites to watch because of head coach Frank Solich, but they also have the best QB in the conference with Nathan Rourke returning. The dual-threat phenom threw for 2,431 yards with 23 TDs and 8 picks while rushing for another 860 yards and a team high 15 TDs on the ground. The team lost a lot of weapons on offense and only return 10 starters overall. However, that's better than last year's East division champ, Buffalo, who only returns 8 starters from their school record, 10-win squad. Kent State should improve with 8 returning starters on offense, but have a tough non-conference schedule and have to visit Ohio. Miami (OH) will be breaking in a new QB while Bowling Green and Akron will be breaking in new coaches. I like Ohio in the East.
Moving to the West, we find a little bigger crowd at the top. Northern Illinois won it all last year, in big part to All-American pass rusher Sutton Smith. The departure of Smith and a new head coach could set their defense back a bit, a unit that gave up just 20.1 points per game in 2018. Eastern Michigan, Western Michigan and Toledo were all a game behind the Huskies last season, so it'll be fun to see which team steps up this year. EMU has some holes to fill with only 10 returning starters while the Rockets are still a bit young, but do get Western Michigan and Northern Illinois at home. Speaking of the Broncos, they're a heavy favorite in this division for a couple reasons. Star QB Jon Wassink returns from injury along with 16 other starters from last year's squad. A new Defensive Coordinator should help shave down the 34.5 points per game given up in 2018 by the Broncos, but the one flaw in their plan is a very unfavorable schedule. They will be on the road against Toledo, EMU, Ohio and Northern Illinois. Ball State could toss their hat into the mix with 17 returning starters of their own, but Central Michigan is likely going through an overhaul with new head man, Jim McElwain. The Broncos have a lot of hype behind them, but I have a sneaky feeling about Northern Illinois taking the West again. I'm not going against Fearless Frankie though, Ohio wins the 2019 MAC Championship behind the leadership and play of Nathan Rourke, you're going to want to watch this kid.
Mountain West Conference (MWC)
2018 Winner: Fresno State
The rivalry between Fresno State and Boise State has only grown stronger over the last couple years, and the OT thriller for the MW crown last year sets the stage for another tight battle in 2019. The Bulldogs and Broncos are likely at the top of their respective divisions yet again, but there are a few other dangerous teams around the conference. My personal favorite to watch is the Aggies from Utah State, lead by one of the best (and most underrated) QBs in the nation, Jordan Love. Unfortunately for Love, his coach, along with the majority of his offense is gone. Utah State only returns 9 starters from 2018, so they will lean heavily on Jordan love and his dual threat ability. Boise State is my pick, and with good reason. The Broncos are always tough, and return a lot of talent from last year. They'll need help as star QB Brett Rypien is gone, along with RB Alexander Mattison, but the smurf turf always seems to have a good QB lying around somewhere. Air Force is always a danger in the division as well, and with 14 returning starters they'll push the Aggies and Broncos this year. Wyoming, Colorado State and New Mexico are still rebuilding, but have young talent.
Moving to the West division, Fresno is still the heavy favorite, even with just 9 returning starters. Their team has a lot of experience and I wouldn't expect too much of a drop off from last season. The Aztecs of SDSU are on their heels though, and bring back 13 starters and a dynamic offense. They'll have to navigate a difficult back half of the schedule, but they do avoid Boise State in cross conference play. Hawaii is my dark horse in this division. The Rainbow Warriors return a staggering 18 players from last year's starting squads, including star QB, Cole McDonald. He threw for nearly 3,900 yards last season with 36 TDs and just 10 picks. With so much talent on defense returning, I like Hawaii to surprise the conference this year. UNLV could cause some headaches, but I don't see them making too much of a dent. I've got Boise State and Hawaii meeting for the Mountain West Championship this year, and as much as I would love to see a Hawaii upset, the Broncos are just too experienced in that position. Boise State is your 2019 Mountain West Conference Champion.
American Athletic Conference
2018 Winner: UCF
The Knights have won back-to-back American Conference Titles and have posted back to back 12-0 regular seasons. Year two of Josh Heupel brings a lot of pressure to repeat, and they have the weapons to do so. UCF returns 13 players from 2018, with 8 of those being on offense. Star QB McKenzie Milton will be sidelined in 2019 from his brutal leg injury in late November last year, but Sophomore Darriel Mack and Notre Dame transfer Brandon Wimbush will have tons of weapons to work with once their QB battle is decided. I expect a heavy dose of the run game with Greg McCrae this season from the Knights, who will be rebuilding the defense a bit. Elsewhere in the East division, the Cincy Bearcats are gaining ground on the Knights after posting an impressive 11-2 record in Luke Fickell's second year in charge. They host UCF on October 4th, so control of the division could be decided early on in the season. Cincy brings back 14 starters from a year ago, including a solid QB-RB duo in Desmond Ridder and Michael Warren, who combined for a staggering 44 TDs last year. Temple and USF will likely be battle for third place in the division, both with potential to cause upsets throughout the year. ECU is breaking in a new coach and UConn needs significant improvement on defense before they're in any conversations about conference title contention.
Over in the West, all eyes are on Memphis to see if they can finally overthrow UCF and secure their first AAC crown. The Tigers return loads of talent, including their star trio on offense, QB Brady White, RB Darrell Henderson and WR Damonte Coxie. These three will be tough for any team to slow down this fall, but the big question is if Memphis can slow anyone else down, after ranking 94th in scoring defense and 89th in total defense last year. The Tigers have to travel to Temple, Houston and USF, so their defense will be tested. Looking at the Houston game in mid-November, that could decide the West. Houston, lead by star QB D'Eriq King, will have a high-powered offense yet again. The Cougars ranked 7th in total offense a year ago, and have arguably the best wideout corps in the conference. Depending on who shapes up their defense the quickest, this division could go to Memphis or Houston quite easily. A sleeper team in the West division would be Tulane. The Green Wave have a stout defense and have a new OC to bring life to the offense. That side of the ball is loaded with weapons, like wideout Darnell Mooney (993 yards, 8 TDs) and running back Darius Bradwell (1,134 yards, 11 TDs). The schedule isn't easy, but they're not a team to overlook, that's for sure. Navy is looking to improve after a disappointing couple of seasons and SMU should make a bowl game. I wouldn't be too concerned about Tulsa any time soon. I've got UCF and Memphis in the title game again, but the Knights hold out again, UCF wins the American for the third straight year.
Thank you for reading my Group of 5 Conference Predictions for 2019, and be sure to watch for the Power 5 Conference Predictions post, that will be up soon! Get hyped because College Football is back this weekend!! GO BIG RED!
#CFBKnowItAll
Alex Fernando
Sun Belt Conference
2018 Winner: Appalachian State
The Sun Belt is not a conference often watched by most major CFB fans, but there are some teams slated in non-conference with big opponents that could cause some headaches early on in the season. As usual, Troy and Appalachian State will battle out for the crown in the East while Arkansas State and Louisiana Lafayette will fight for the West. Georgia Southern surprised everyone with a 10-3 record last season, even beating eventual conference champ App State in October 34-14. The Eagles bring back 12 starters from a year ago and will look to throw their name into the hat for a Conference Title as well. As is the case with most G5 schools, the rest of the division is dealing with lots of rebuilding and young coaches. UL Monroe should push for a bowl game with 15 starters returning from last year including QB Caleb Evans. The key games to watch will be the Ragin' Cajuns at the Red Wolves (10/17) and the Mountaineers at the Trojans (11/29). I believe App State has the best chance of repeating as they return 16 starters from last year's 11-2 squad. Many people forget they nearly knocked off #10 Penn State in the opening week last year, losing 45-38 in OT. Star QB Zac Thomas returns from throwing 21 TDs last year and the offensive line returns 4 out of 5 starters. A new head coach could result in growing pains, but with this much experience returning it's hard to see the Mountaineers anywhere but the top. Troy has a new coach as well, with 12 returning starters including RB B.J. Smith. Over in the west, Arkansas State's home field advantage against UL Lafayette could be the difference maker between two teams with lots of returning talent and new QBs. I took the Red Wolves on this side last year and missed, but not this year. Arkansas State and Appalachian State will play for the Sun Belt Conference Championship and I've got the Mountaineers claiming their third straight title.
Conference USA (C-USA)
2018 Winner: UAB
Conference USA is always a fun conference to keep tabs on as some sneaky teams like to hide with star players. The Blazers of UAB won last year's title, but a repeat will be difficult as they're only returning 8 starters from 2018. The West division will likely be taken over by the Mean Green of North Texas and their star QB, Mason Fine. I said it at the beginning of last season and I'll say it again, people are missing out if you don't watch Fine play. This kid has thrown for 3,700+ yards in each of the last two seasons and cut his interceptions down by 10 last year, posting an impressive 27 to 5 TD to INT ratio. Some of his top wideouts as well as their leading rusher return for the 2019 campaign, and if they get their defense in shape, I don't know if there's another team in the West that's deep enough to compete. Southern Miss and Louisiana Tech are typically at the top of the division, and both of them get North Texas at home, so there's an advantage. The Golden Eagles are probably the biggest threat with their defense that ranked 3rd in the nation with total defense last year. If they can get an offensive attack up to speed early, they're the biggest threat to take the West. They do return 10 starters on that side of the ball, so there's a lot of experience.
Over in the East division, Marshall and Florida International hold the top spots. Both teams return a lot of players and experience from last year, so their showdown on November 30th will likely decide the division. FIU returns 16 starters while Marshall brings back 14. The Heard will pound it out with a ground game that returns 4 starters on the o-line and a double-trouble running back duo that combined for 1,233 yards and 8 TDs last year. The Panthers averaged 34.6 points per game on offense, but were a bit inconsistent at times. Marshall has the edge in scheduling, getting FIU and Louisiana Tech at home while missing the other heavy hitters from the West. FIU has to travel to many of their tougher games, so we'll see what they're made of come November. The dark horse team from the East would be the Lane Kiffin-lead Owls of Florida Atlantic. FAU will be lead by former Seminoles QB, Deondre Francois, so their offense could be entertaining this year. I like Marshall and their dominant ground game to come out of the East. They'll likely square off against Southern Miss in the C-USA championship for my prediction, but I like the Golden Eagles. Southern Miss is my prediction for the 2019 C-USA Champion.
Mid-American Conference (MAC)
2018 Winner: Northern Illinois
The Mid-American Conference is always one of the most difficult to predict in my opinion. There's a large crowd of talented teams at the top, and there hasn't been a repeat conference champion since 2011-12. Ohio is always one of my favorites to watch because of head coach Frank Solich, but they also have the best QB in the conference with Nathan Rourke returning. The dual-threat phenom threw for 2,431 yards with 23 TDs and 8 picks while rushing for another 860 yards and a team high 15 TDs on the ground. The team lost a lot of weapons on offense and only return 10 starters overall. However, that's better than last year's East division champ, Buffalo, who only returns 8 starters from their school record, 10-win squad. Kent State should improve with 8 returning starters on offense, but have a tough non-conference schedule and have to visit Ohio. Miami (OH) will be breaking in a new QB while Bowling Green and Akron will be breaking in new coaches. I like Ohio in the East.
Moving to the West, we find a little bigger crowd at the top. Northern Illinois won it all last year, in big part to All-American pass rusher Sutton Smith. The departure of Smith and a new head coach could set their defense back a bit, a unit that gave up just 20.1 points per game in 2018. Eastern Michigan, Western Michigan and Toledo were all a game behind the Huskies last season, so it'll be fun to see which team steps up this year. EMU has some holes to fill with only 10 returning starters while the Rockets are still a bit young, but do get Western Michigan and Northern Illinois at home. Speaking of the Broncos, they're a heavy favorite in this division for a couple reasons. Star QB Jon Wassink returns from injury along with 16 other starters from last year's squad. A new Defensive Coordinator should help shave down the 34.5 points per game given up in 2018 by the Broncos, but the one flaw in their plan is a very unfavorable schedule. They will be on the road against Toledo, EMU, Ohio and Northern Illinois. Ball State could toss their hat into the mix with 17 returning starters of their own, but Central Michigan is likely going through an overhaul with new head man, Jim McElwain. The Broncos have a lot of hype behind them, but I have a sneaky feeling about Northern Illinois taking the West again. I'm not going against Fearless Frankie though, Ohio wins the 2019 MAC Championship behind the leadership and play of Nathan Rourke, you're going to want to watch this kid.
Mountain West Conference (MWC)
2018 Winner: Fresno State
The rivalry between Fresno State and Boise State has only grown stronger over the last couple years, and the OT thriller for the MW crown last year sets the stage for another tight battle in 2019. The Bulldogs and Broncos are likely at the top of their respective divisions yet again, but there are a few other dangerous teams around the conference. My personal favorite to watch is the Aggies from Utah State, lead by one of the best (and most underrated) QBs in the nation, Jordan Love. Unfortunately for Love, his coach, along with the majority of his offense is gone. Utah State only returns 9 starters from 2018, so they will lean heavily on Jordan love and his dual threat ability. Boise State is my pick, and with good reason. The Broncos are always tough, and return a lot of talent from last year. They'll need help as star QB Brett Rypien is gone, along with RB Alexander Mattison, but the smurf turf always seems to have a good QB lying around somewhere. Air Force is always a danger in the division as well, and with 14 returning starters they'll push the Aggies and Broncos this year. Wyoming, Colorado State and New Mexico are still rebuilding, but have young talent.
Moving to the West division, Fresno is still the heavy favorite, even with just 9 returning starters. Their team has a lot of experience and I wouldn't expect too much of a drop off from last season. The Aztecs of SDSU are on their heels though, and bring back 13 starters and a dynamic offense. They'll have to navigate a difficult back half of the schedule, but they do avoid Boise State in cross conference play. Hawaii is my dark horse in this division. The Rainbow Warriors return a staggering 18 players from last year's starting squads, including star QB, Cole McDonald. He threw for nearly 3,900 yards last season with 36 TDs and just 10 picks. With so much talent on defense returning, I like Hawaii to surprise the conference this year. UNLV could cause some headaches, but I don't see them making too much of a dent. I've got Boise State and Hawaii meeting for the Mountain West Championship this year, and as much as I would love to see a Hawaii upset, the Broncos are just too experienced in that position. Boise State is your 2019 Mountain West Conference Champion.
American Athletic Conference
2018 Winner: UCF
The Knights have won back-to-back American Conference Titles and have posted back to back 12-0 regular seasons. Year two of Josh Heupel brings a lot of pressure to repeat, and they have the weapons to do so. UCF returns 13 players from 2018, with 8 of those being on offense. Star QB McKenzie Milton will be sidelined in 2019 from his brutal leg injury in late November last year, but Sophomore Darriel Mack and Notre Dame transfer Brandon Wimbush will have tons of weapons to work with once their QB battle is decided. I expect a heavy dose of the run game with Greg McCrae this season from the Knights, who will be rebuilding the defense a bit. Elsewhere in the East division, the Cincy Bearcats are gaining ground on the Knights after posting an impressive 11-2 record in Luke Fickell's second year in charge. They host UCF on October 4th, so control of the division could be decided early on in the season. Cincy brings back 14 starters from a year ago, including a solid QB-RB duo in Desmond Ridder and Michael Warren, who combined for a staggering 44 TDs last year. Temple and USF will likely be battle for third place in the division, both with potential to cause upsets throughout the year. ECU is breaking in a new coach and UConn needs significant improvement on defense before they're in any conversations about conference title contention.
Over in the West, all eyes are on Memphis to see if they can finally overthrow UCF and secure their first AAC crown. The Tigers return loads of talent, including their star trio on offense, QB Brady White, RB Darrell Henderson and WR Damonte Coxie. These three will be tough for any team to slow down this fall, but the big question is if Memphis can slow anyone else down, after ranking 94th in scoring defense and 89th in total defense last year. The Tigers have to travel to Temple, Houston and USF, so their defense will be tested. Looking at the Houston game in mid-November, that could decide the West. Houston, lead by star QB D'Eriq King, will have a high-powered offense yet again. The Cougars ranked 7th in total offense a year ago, and have arguably the best wideout corps in the conference. Depending on who shapes up their defense the quickest, this division could go to Memphis or Houston quite easily. A sleeper team in the West division would be Tulane. The Green Wave have a stout defense and have a new OC to bring life to the offense. That side of the ball is loaded with weapons, like wideout Darnell Mooney (993 yards, 8 TDs) and running back Darius Bradwell (1,134 yards, 11 TDs). The schedule isn't easy, but they're not a team to overlook, that's for sure. Navy is looking to improve after a disappointing couple of seasons and SMU should make a bowl game. I wouldn't be too concerned about Tulsa any time soon. I've got UCF and Memphis in the title game again, but the Knights hold out again, UCF wins the American for the third straight year.
Thank you for reading my Group of 5 Conference Predictions for 2019, and be sure to watch for the Power 5 Conference Predictions post, that will be up soon! Get hyped because College Football is back this weekend!! GO BIG RED!
#CFBKnowItAll
Alex Fernando
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