College Football Playoff National Championship

      Hello College Football Fans and welcome to the final game of an absolutely wild season. Despite the hurdles and challenges of Covid-19, we were able to make it through the College Football Season, and now we get to watch the Tide and the Buckeyes battle it out for the crown. I can honestly say that I did not expect Ohio State to be here in recent weeks, but their performance against Clemson certainly corrected my thinking. Justin Fields was incredible against the Tigers and Alabama had minimal issues with Notre Dame, we should have a great game tonight! I've got a full break down of keys to the game and what to watch for, so read onto my prediction and enjoy!

Bowl Prediction Record: 14-11

#3 Ohio State vs. #1 Alabama - College Football Playoff National Championship

     Despite playing just over half the games Alabama did, Ohio State has found their way back to the National Championship game after dominating their revenge game against Clemson. Justin Fields was lights out against the Tigers, completing 22 of 28 passes for 385 yards and 6 TDs. He'll need a similar performance to keep pace with the Tide, who have the Heisman winner, the Davey O'Brien winner, and the Doak Walker winner all on their offense. The Buckeyes have some deadly weapons of their own around Fields, including WR Chris Olave and RB Trey Sermon. Hopefully they're not any of the OSU team members who've tested positive for covid-19. Anyways, Sermon has been on a tear the past couple of games, after rushing for a BIG 10 record 331 in the Conference Championship, he followed it up with 193 and a TD against Clemson. More than half of his yards on the season have come in the past two games and he's averaging 7.5 yards per carry. Alabama's defense has not been tested by very many dynamic offenses like Ohio State, so bringing down this bulldozer won't be easy. As for the Tide, they're used to running away with games as they rank #2 (only behind Kent State) in the nation with 48.2 points per game. The Buckeyes average 43.4 ranking them at #5. Alabama has scorched every opposing defense that stands in their way thanks to the aforementioned Heisman, O'Brien and Walker winners. The dynamic trio of WR DeVonta Smith, QB Mac Jones and RB Najee Harris have each accounted for a minimum of 20 TDs and are statistically one of the best offensive attacks Nick Saban has ever had. Ohio State was able to slow down the Clemson rushing attack, bottling up Travis Etienne for just 32 yards. Trevor Lawrence did throw for 400 though, and the secondary of the Buckeyes has struggled in multiple games this season. There's even a small possibility that Bama's other star receiver, Jaylen Waddle, could return for the National Championship game, which would really make things difficult for the Buckeyes. I really do think both offenses are too powerful to be stopped by either defense, so turnovers and any pressure on the opposing QB will be very important in this game. Neither team makes many mistakes, which is why they're playing in January. This has shootout written all over it and we could see some very dynamic offensive performances. I would expect big games for Alabama and Ohio State through the air, so the battle of the RBs could be the deciding factor. Both Trey Sermon and Najee Harris are phenomenal, but whichever back can find space and break off some big chunks to ease up the blitz packages will likely help their team to victory. That means the battle in the trenches will be brutal each and every play. Owning the line of scrimmage will lead to bigger holes or getting stuffed in the backfield. Alabama has been known for this year in and year out, but the Buckeyes have one of the best offensive lines in the country and one of the most underrated defensive lines. Since Chase Young went to the NFL as the 2nd overall pick in the draft last year, most people have forgotten about Ohio State's D-line. Their stats aren't nearly as flashy as previous years, but keep an eye on this squad tonight, they are extremely disruptive on the line of scrimmage and will make life difficult for Mac Jones and crew. They were responsible for 3 pass deflections against Trevor Lawrence and the Tigers, so look for their hands to be up. This is my key unit to watch in tonights game as the battle in the trenches will determine who walks out of Miami with the trophy. This should be a great game to watch and I'm giving the nod to the Buckeyes. I've doubted before but I will no longer, Ohio State wins the 2021 College Football Playoff National Championship 43-38!

#CollegeFootballKnowItAll

Alex Fernando

January 1st - 2nd Bowl Predictions

      We've made it to the New Year's Six Bowls and we've got a great slate lined up for the next couple of days! I've hit a few bumps in my recent predictions, but we can get back on track before the National Championship game. Here are my next round of predictions, enjoy!

Bowl Prediction Record: 10-7

Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl

#9 Georgia vs. #8 Cincinnati

     A big statement game is set as the Bearcats take on the Bulldogs. Last time we saw an American Conference team square off with an SEC team in the Peach Bowl, Scott Frost led UCF to an undefeated season and claimed a National Championship after defeating Auburn 34-27. This time around could be a bit different as UGA has found new life on offense since starting JT Daniels under center. They've averaged nearly 42 points and over 500 yards of offense in their last three games with Daniels under center, going 3-0 over that span. Cincy remains one of just 3 undefeated teams left in 2020, and is looking to prove to everyone why they deserve a shot in the CFB Playoffs. None of their players have opted out of this game while Georgia will be without a handful of players, including a starting offensive lineman and corner back. The Bearcats are led by dual-threat QB Desmond Ridder, who has accounted for 29 touchdowns on the season. I've been a big advocate for Cincy all season, because of Ridder and their impressive defense, which allows just 16 points per game. They've got a lot to prove, and I think they'll get it done, UGA isn't as dominant as people think. Cincy 28, Georgia 24.

Vrbo Citrus Bowl

Auburn vs. Northwestern

     The Tigers and Wildcats meet in the Citrus bowl for just their second meeting in history. Auburn won the first meeting back in 2010, but this Northwestern team won't be so easy to claim victory upon. The Wildcats had a rough go in the BIG 10 Championship, giving up 399 yards on the ground to the Buckeyes, mostly in the second half. Outside of that terrible performance, they have one of the best defenses in the country, complimented by one of the worst offenses. This never bodes well, but with Auburn playing their first game without Gus Malzhan, things could be interesting on the Tigers' sideline. I'm not really sure what to expect from them, but I'll trust Pat Fitzgerald and the Wildcats to bounce back with an impressive defensive performance. Hopefully they can mix some offense in there too. Northwestern gets a big win for the BIG 10 with a 24-14 victory.

Taxslayer Gator Bowl

#23 NC State vs. Kentucky

     Neither team has been very impressive this season, and statistically, this looks to be a close game. Kentucky has lost 3 out of thier last 5 games, but those were all against top 10 teams in Georgia, Bama and Florida. The Wolfpack have been able to put up points, averaging 31 per game, but have a difficult time stopping opposing offenses. They also turn the ball over a lot which is my key to watch in this one. Kentucky is +7 in the turnover margin while NC State is -3. That should be a big factor in this one. Kentucky wins 35-30.

Outback Bowl

Ole Miss vs. #11 Indiana

     Another BIG 10/SEC matchup for bowl season gives us the dynamic offense of Lane Kiffin and the Rebels versus Tom Allen's rugged Hoosier defense. The Hoosiers have still been winning since star QB Michael Penix Jr. tore his ACL, and that's thanks to the defense. Indiana gives up fewer than 20 points per game, which will be tested as the Rebels average 40.7. However, the Indiana offense should have success despite not having Penix since Ole Miss gives up 40.3 points per game on defense. I like Indiana to win this one 31-21.

PlayStation Fiesta Bowl

#25 Oregon vs. #10 Iowa State

     The Ducks won the PAC-12 Championship over USC after replacing Washington in the game from a covid-19 outbreak. Iowa State wasn't quite able to complete the comeback against Oklahoma and fell short of their first ever Big XII Title. Brock Purdy and Breece Hall have been tremendous all year long, and will certainly bring that to the Fiesta Bowl. Oregon has struggled on defense this season, but are often able to force mistakes at just the right time. This could be one of the best bowl games of the season if things play out right, but I think they Cyclones have enough experience to pull out the victory. Iowa State wins this one 38-35 with a big performance from Brock Purdy.

Capital One Orange Bowl

#5 Texas A&M vs. #13 North Carolina

     The Aggies are looking to prove the CFB Playoff Committee wrong as they take on the Tar Heels down in Miami. Mac Brown and UNC just put up 62 points and more than 550 rushing yards in that building against the Hurricanes in their final week of the season, but the Aggie defense poses a bit more of a challenge. Their defense gives up just 21.1 points per game on average, and the big factor is QB Kellen Mond and the Aggie offense holding onto the ball. Texas A&M ranks 3rd in the nation for time of possession, giving opponents fewer than 25 minutes with the ball per game. UNC doesn't need much time to score though, and Sam Howell will be looking to light up a defense that gives up around 225 yards per game through the air. The run game will be the true test in this one, especially with the Aggies having to stop the duo of Michael Carter and Javonte Williams. Both backs have over 1,000 yards and find the endzone often (Carter 9 TDs, Williams 19 TDs). They both gash defenses as Carter averages 8 yards per carry and Williams averages 7.3. This will be the best rushing attack Texas A&M has faced all season, and it might be too much to handle. I like Kellen Mond a lot, but I doubted Sam Howell last time and it didn't work out well. Tar Heels pull the upset on the Aggies 34-31.

Rose Bowl Game presented by Capital One - CFP Semifinal

#4 Notre Dame vs. #1 Alabama

     The Tide and the Irish set up our first semifinal as the Rose Bowl moved to Arlington, TX due to covid-19 restrictions. Alabama is heavily favored with a nearly 20 point spread from the experts. The Tide have rolled through everyone on their schedule with the best offense in the nation and two Hesiman Finalists in QB Mac Jones and WR DeVonta Smith. The duo has connected for more than 1,500 yards and 17 TDs together, and will be a difficult challenge for a Notre Dame secondary that just gave up 322 yards to Clemson just a couple weeks ago. They will also have to deal with RB Najee Harris, who's receiving abilities out of the backfield make him another threat in the passing game. The Irish will need to revamp thier offense if they want a shot at winning this one, but Bama's defense has plenty of hole to allow points. Everything starts with QB Ian Book though for Notre Dame, and they need to get him moving out of the pocket. He's at his best making plays out on the edges, and it will give him more time to find the deadly TEs & WRs of the Irish. They have a big size advantage on the outside, and this needs to be exploited for the Irish to keep pace. Not many can keep up with the speed of Bama however, and if they're offense can't slow the game down with long drives, Notre Dame could be out of this one quickly. The Tide roll again 45-21.

Allstate Sugar Bowl - CFP Semifinal

#3 Ohio State vs. #2 Clemson

     The Buckeyes have found their way into the playoffs despite playing (and winning) just 6 games this season. Fuel has been thrown on the fire in this game as Dabo Swinney ranked the Buckeyes at #11 in the final coaches poll of 2020. This was a thriller last year in the semifinals, as the Tigers came back from a big deficit and held on late. I don't think this Ohio State team is as good as last year's squad, and Justin Fields has been less than impressive throughout 2020. He's struggled in the two close games the Buckeyes have played, and now faces the 5th best defense in the nation. As for the Tigers, they have the best player in the nation with QB Trevor Lawrence, and their offense is nearly unstoppable with all the weapons they have. I expect a beat down in this game and Clemson should be able to flex their muscles prior to another meeting with Bama for the title. Tigers 38, Buckeyes 17.

Thanks for reading all of my bowl game predictions and be sure to watch for my CFP National Championship Prediction post after all the semifinals are complete!

#CFBKnowItAll

Alex Fernando