Hey everyone, I hope you enjoyed another great weekend of College Football! There were some great games this weekend, and I was very impressed by a couple performances, most notably Washington's thrashing of the Ducks. This post is going to focus on my opinions on who the favorites are in each of the Power 5 Conferences half way through the season. My thoughts on a few teams have changed, so please enjoy, and let me know what you think!
The ACC
At the beginning of the season, I picked North Carolina and Clemson to square off for a re-match in the ACC championship. The Tar Heels took a big hit this past weekend after being trashed by Virginia Tech (2-0 in ACC play) 34-3. Miami also fell back in the Coastal division as FSU knocked them from the ranks of the "unbeatens" after blocking the game tying PAT with only a few minutes left in the game. The next 9 days will tell us a lot about the Coastal division, because Miami plays UNC on the 15th, then quickly turns around and travels to Blacksburg, VA 5 days later on the 20th. If they come out of those games 2-0, they will have knocked down their biggest competition in the Coastal Division. I see it as a 3-way race between the Hurricanes, Tar Heels, and Hokies. All three teams have just as much chance to beat the others, but if Virginia Tech can keep up their recent defensive success, I'm going to give them the edge. Plus they have Miami at home, and on a short week, so that is a huge advantage.
On the Atlantic side, Clemson has the top spot, and since they've already downed the Cardinals from Louisville, they have a good chance at holding out to win the division. The Tigers have a tough road challenge in a few weeks down to Tallahassee, but the Seminoles have struggled in big games so far this year, and were demolished by Lamar Jackson, so I doubt Deshaun Watson will be much better to them. A couple of sneaky teams wait in November though; Pitt has played teams close all season long, winning and losing a couple, and you never want to underestimate the rivalry game with the Gamecocks. I've still got Clemson winning the Atlantic Division, and the overall ACC.
The Big XII
This conference is an absolute mess. We have a little better idea after the Red River Rivalry victory by the Sooners, but I still don't know for sure who will come out of this conference as the victor. I said it before the season, and I'll say it again; there will be NO Big XII team in the College Football Playoff this season. I don't think there is a strong enough team in the Big XII, and it seems like they're all going to cannibalize each other fighting for the Conference Title. I picked the Sooners to own the Big XII at the beginning of the season, and they're tied for the conference lead at 2-0 with Baylor. The Bears have yet to play much competition, and their game against the Sooners is in Norman, so I don't think they will stay unbeaten for long. They team that keeps winning games but not many people are talking about though, is West Virginia. Skyler Howard and Shelton Gibson are leading one of the best passing attacks in the nation, averaging 318 yards per game. The Mountaineers have played a lot of close games, but the key is that they are winning those close games. I think they may be a team to watch the rest of the season, especially because they get TCU, Oklahoma and Baylor in Morgantown. I'll give the edge to the Sooners right now, but that may change by the time we get to November. Keep your eye on the Mountaineers.
The PAC-12
The dark horse has jumped into the spot light and has taken the College Football world by storm. I picked Stanford and UCLA, but I did express concern about Washington's ability to compete. Well I think it's safe to say that they really came to compete this year. The Huskies have a top 10 scoring offense (averaging 49.5 points per game) and a top 10 scoring defense (giving up only 14.2 points per game). Their last two weeks have been victories by a combined score of 114-27 against two of the PAC-12 powerhouses in Stanford and Oregon. There are still a lot of games left in the season, but if the Huskies keep playing at this level, they will be very tough to stop. A tricky road game to Salt Lake City sits a few weeks away, but other than that I don't see Washington having many issues until the Apple Cup against their rivals Washington State. Speaking of Wazzu, the Cougars are also unbeaten in conference play, but are not nearly as complete as the Huskies.
Down in the southern half of the conference, some puzzling teams are all tied atop the division. Arizona State, Utah and Colorado are all sitting at 2-1, and looking to win the South Division crown. All have dynamic offenses, but the back half of the schedules pose lots of different threats. All three still have to play each other, so we'll find out who can outlast in the South. I'm giving the edge to the Utes right now, because if they can handle a road trip to UCLA in a couple weeks, they could knock the Bruins out of contention. They have a tough home match-up with Washington, and have to travel to both ASU and Colorado, but they are probably the most consistent team of the three leaders. Colorado is my dark horse down South though. They stumbled last week against the Trojans, but can rebound against the Sun Devils this week and avoid Washington out of the North. Having ASU, UCLA, Wazzu and Utah all come to Boulder will be an advantage too, so watch out for the Buffs.
The SEC
The SEC looks to be a lock in the East, even with Tennessee stumbling this past weekend. Florida poses a threat because they avoid the Tide and A&M from the West, and no one knows if their game with LSU will be played or not at this point. Tennessee has another tough test with Bama coming up to Knoxville this Saturday, but after that they shouldn't have too many games to worry about. If they do fall to the Tide, Florida will have the lead in the conference, but the Vols have the head to head win, so if Florida drops one (rivalry game with Georgia or a trip to Arkansas) then Tennessee will be back in the driver seat.
On the West side, the Tide look to keep rolling, but the 4 week stretch of at Tennessee, home against A&M, BYE and then at LSU does not look friendly. The Aggies are undefeated, and pose the biggest threat to Alabama to take away the West Division crown. No matter what happens in Knoxville this week, all eyes will be focused on Tuscaloosa, AL next week as the Aggies come to Bryant-Denny Stadium looking for an upset. I'm still leaning towards Alabama, because it's nearly impossible to bet against them, but they will be truly tested over the next few weeks, and this will show who is the real powerhouse in the West. If Bama wins the West, they'll win the entire SEC. If Texas A&M win the West, a rematch with Tennessee could be dangerous.
The BIG 10
We'll start in the East because there is no way to ignore the dominance that has been shown by both Ohio State and Michigan. Both the Buckeyes and Wolverines have top 5 scoring offenses and defenses, causing all sorts of headaches for teams. The Wolverines got over the Wisconsin hurdle, and have a fairly manageable schedule until their showdown in Columbus. Road trips to East Lansing and Iowa City could be tricky, but probably won't play much of a factor. For the Buckeyes, the bulk of their schedule is just beginning. Their next 4 weeks pose a number of different threats as their schedule goes like this: at Wisconsin, at Penn State, home for a tricky Northwestern team, and then home again against the Huskers. Wisconsin and Nebraska are going to cause the most issues, but Penn State and Northwestern are never teams to overlook. The showdown in Madison will tell us a lot moving forward, especially because the Buckeyes didn't look the best (only 93 yards passing) against Indiana last week. Both Ohio State and Michigan look like they could hang with anyone in the nation, but I'll stick with the Buckeyes for now since the Big Game is in Columbus. You could honestly toss a coin on the East Division though.
Moving over to the West, a few teams still have a shot, but it will likely come down to Nebraska and Wisconsin. Iowa has fallen back to Earth and down into the pit of mediocrity where they kinda belong in my opinion (sorry, gotta bash the rivals), leading me to believe that they will not win either of their games against the Badgers or the Wolverines. However, both those games (and the Huskers') are in Iowa City, so you never really know. Back to the teams of Red & White, Wisconsin has really surprised me this year. I never have a problem trusting their strength on defense, but they have been incredible this season. They are only giving up 12.2 points per game, and have absolutely suffocated any and every run game that they have faced. However, with all that being said, I still think that thier schedule is a little too stacked for them to have a clean enough record to win the West Division. They have the potential to beat the Buckeyes this weekend, but if they don't, they will fall to 2-2 in the conference with quite a bit of ground to make up. So, with Iowa and Wisconsin's schedules consuming their conference records, Nebraska still remains my favorite (I have un-biased reasons coming up). The Huskers have a favorable schedule, and although they have to travel to both Wisconsin and Ohio State, the brutality of their schedules could provide an advantage for the Huskers. The Badgers will becoming off of a two week stretch of Ohio State, and then an away game at their rival Iowa. I already talked about Ohio State's schedule above, so look for the wear and tear to play a factor. Nebraska can still win the West without beating Wisconsin, but if the Huskers can get the head to head, they will have no problem finishing out their schedule for the West Division crown. I'm still taking my Huskers out West in the BIG 10!
I hope you all enjoyed my conference update! Please let me know if you have any teams you'd like me to analyze or something else you'd like to see on my blog! Don't forget to sign your email up to receive notifications for all my posts. Thanks for reading and GO BIG RED!!
#CollegeFootballKnowItAll
Alex Fernando
Wednesday, October 12, 2016
Saturday, October 8, 2016
Week 6 Predictions
Hey everyone! I hope you've all had a great week and are ready for more football! My Huskers are on a much needed BYE week, but we still have a great slate of games to watch, including a couple of important match-ups down in the SEC. There are also a number of rivalry games this weekend, so let's get to the picks! Enjoy!
Iowa at Minnesota (Battle for the Floyd of Rosedale)
For those of you outside of the BIG 10, this is a great rivalry between the two schools, especially because the prize is a 98 lbs. bronze Pig! These two BIG 10 rivals square off in Minneapolis at 11 am on Saturday, and both are looking to get back on track after tough losses last week. The Gophers lost a close game to Penn State, and Iowa was once again stunned at home by a team they probably should have beaten in Northwestern. Neither team has looked very impressive through the first five weeks, especially when you consider the competition they have played. Iowa's consistency has dropped drastically from a year ago, and it starts up front with the offensive line. So far this season, Senior QB CJ Bethard has been sacked 14 times through only 5 games. Last year Iowa only gave up 29 sacks total throughout the season. Plus, their run game has been very lack-luster. Last year, the Hawkeyes were averaging over 180 yards rushing per game, this year, that average has dropped to just over 140. Plus, their average Time of Possession is down by over 2 minutes from last season. Minnesota on the other hand has increased their TOP average from last year by nearly 3 minutes. The Gophers are also averaging 228 on the ground per game and 211 through the air. I expect those numbers to drop as Iowa is probably the best defense they've faced so far this year, but the Hawkeyes are still giving up over 180 yards on average in each category. It's always hard to pick on a rivalry game, especially with both teams looking to get back on track in conference play, but I'm going with the home team in this one. I'm betting on a little bit closer of a game, but I think that if Minnesota can keep Iowa's run game contained, and bump up their TOP, they can come away with the victory. Plus the home team has won this game each time over the past 3 years, so look for the crowd to be a factor. Gophers win the Pig 28-23.
Maryland at Penn State
Another chapter in this hated rivalry is set to take place out in Happy Valley this weekend. Penn State may hold the all time series with an impressive 36-2-1 stat line, but since the Terps have joined the BIG 10, two 1-point games have decided the victor over the past couple years. Maryland has looked impressive so far against their lesser opponents this year, averaging over 43 points per game while giving up only 14, but once again, they have yet to face a quality opponent. Penn State has been a different story since they have played some tougher opponents. They have had a lot of close games apart from their blowout loss to the Wolverines, and are coming off of an Overtime thriller with the Gophers. I expect "Linebacker U" to bring the Terps' offense down a couple pegs to make this a little closer game. Oddly enough, the big thing to watch in this game is Maryland's ground attack. They are averaging 300 yards rushing per game, and the Nittany Lions are giving up an average of 216 yards rushing per game. Plus the Terps have an average TOP nearly 4 minutes ahead of the Nittany Lions. Penn State's offense has really struggled, and although they average 256 yards passing per game, Sophomore QB Trace McSorley is only completing 58.9% of his passes and has a 6:3 TD to Interception ratio. One big thing Penn State has going for them is special teams, because they have probably the most formidable kicker in the history of football! I have never seen a kicker as determined to make the tackle as the 258 lbs. Joey Julius is. His hits on kickoffs are some of my favorite highlights to watch, so Maryland better think twice before they try to return any kicks! Once again, rivalry games are hard to peg, but I think Maryland's offense might be too much for Penn State. We'll see if the Terps rise to the challenge against what is probably their strongest opponent so far this season. I'll go with Maryland in a 31-27 victory.
Texas vs. #20 Oklahoma (Red River Rivalry)
Since they shocked the Irish in the opening weekend, Texas (and Notre Dame) have more or less fallen off the map. They've lost back to back games to Cal and Oklahoma State, even with a BYE week in between. Oklahoma is trying to salvage the rest of their season after starting 1-2 with losses to Houston and Ohio State. Nationally, this game does not carry as much weight as it usually does, but for the Big XII Conference, this is a big one. Baylor and West Virginia are leading the conference right now, but there's no clear favorite in my opinion. The Big XII is extremely wide open, but Texas is a step behind since they have dropped 1 conference game already. OU pulled out a key win against the Horned Frogs last week, giving them a step up. Looking into the Red River Rivalry, I don't know where to start. Both teams move the ball well and have good play-makers on offense, but both teams cannot stop anyone on defense. Kind of typical for Big XII teams, but when both teams give up nearly 430 yards and over 35 points per game, you just know it's going to be a shootout. That's when you go look at the QBs. Texas is working with a Freshman under center, while occasionally bringing in the big Senior Tyrone Swoopes to run the ball (he has 5 rushing TDs so far this season). Oklahoma is a little more set at the QB spot as Baker Mayfield looks continue his impressive start to the season where he's already responsible for 11 touchdowns (9 passing & 2 rushing). Anyone could figure out that OU has the advantage when looking at the QB position, and if I were in a shootout, I would want Mayfield over Buechele. I'll go with the Sooners in a high-scoring, high-energy, high-stakes game down south. Oklahoma 48, Texas 35.
#25 Virginia Tech at #17 North Carolina
One of two top 25 match-ups in the ACC this weekend, the Hokies travel to Chapel Hill to take on the red hot Tar Heels. UNC have won 4 straight since their opening week loss to Georgia, including two close, 4th quarter, game winning drives to beat Pitt and Florida State. Junior QB Mitch Trubisky has been incredible so far this season, completing 76% of his passes, and posting a 13:0 TD to Interception ratio. Virginia Tech's numbers on defense look impressive, but they haven't played much competition outside of Tennessee, and they gave up quite a few yards and 45 points in that game. If this one is going to be close, it's going to be a shootout. Both teams are averaging 40 points per game, and UNC's defense has given up quite a few yards, especially on the ground. This plays well for the Hokies since they are averaging nearly 200 on the ground per game, and the Tar Heels give up an average of 236. I think UNC will win this one, mostly because of Trubisky. There are not many QBs playing at his level, and I don't think Virginia Tech's defense will be able to slow him down. This one will have quite a few points though! Tar Heels 48, Hokies 31.
Indiana at #2 Ohio State
Last year, this was one of my big upset picks, and the Buckeyes came away with a narrow 34-27 victory late in the 4th. That was out in Bloomington, but this year, it's in the Horseshoe. Indiana is playing at a much better level than previous years, especially on the defensive side of the ball. New Defensive Coordinator Tom Allen has the Hoosier defense posting some impressive numbers. They are only giving up 140 yards on the ground per game, which has dropped drastically from the nearly 200 they gave up a year ago. Again, there's still a lot of growth to be had if Indiana is ever going to compete in the BIG 10, but they can definitely cause some headaches. This could be a bit of a trap game for the Buckeyes as they have a big road trip to the Badgers lined up for next week, so they may overlook this one a bit. I don't think this will be the upset year for Indiana, but I think they'll be a little closer than the 28 point spread. JT Barrett and company shouldn't have many issues scoring points, but Ohio State's young defense will be tested with another good offensive attack. I'm sticking with the Buckeyes, 49-28.
#9 Tennessee at #8 Texas A&M
The Vols travel to College Station to take on the Aggies, hoping to continue their magical season of 4th quarter comebacks. However, one key member of their offense will be missing for this game, and that is Junior RB Jalen Hurd. This could slow down the Vols productivity on offense, as they are averaging nearly 175 yards rushing per game. Without Hurd, Joshua Dobbs will have to step up and make some big plays. It's hard to pick against Tennessee with all of their recent success, and it makes it even harder when we don't know if Myles Garrett will be playing for the Aggies. Garrett is one of the best pass rushers in the country, and A&M are also missing an offensive lineman and two big receivers. A&M's injuries put the weight on Trevor Knight's shoulders, making a great battle between two dynamic, dual-threat QBs. Both offenses have a lot of weapons, but revolve on the QB play. Both QBs are experienced, and have played in a few big games. It's hard to pick on a game where the teams are so evenly matched, and evenly injured, but I'm going with Tennessee in some more 4th Quarter magic. Vols 38-35.
#21 Colorado at USC
This is an interesting game because I don't think anyone would ever believed that the Buffaloes would be ranked walking into a match-up with the Trojans. Nonetheless, Colorado is ranked, and honestly (really dislike saying this) they are playing some really good football. They nearly upset the Trojans last year, and they have proven this year that they are not the normal pushover people think of them as. The Buffs are averaging over 530 yards per game and 43.2 points per game on offense. Defensively, they are giving up under 150 yards both passing and rushing. Now the Trojans have been struggling, but they are no pushover either. They have struggled to produce many points, but have the talent to put up big numbers. They have a lot of talented receivers, so look for them to test Colorado deep. The only loss Colorado has this season, is to the very talented, very powerful Michigan Wolverines. USC's talent pool is much like that of the Maize and Blue, so the Buffs will have to be sharp if they want to come out of L.A. with an upset. I think that Colorado's QB Sefo Liufau is the difference in this game, because Jalen Hurts ran for two TDs against them in the opener. Sefo is very good once he gets out of the pocket, and when passing, doesn't make many bad choices (71.1% completion rating and 0 interceptions so far this season). If he can go full speed for this game, I think Colorado comes away with the W. Buffalo 35, Trojans 23.
#5 Washington at Oregon
Washington really impressed me last week by absolutely demolishing Stanford. Oregon has really fallen off after losing 3 in a row. However, this is an interesting rivalry game in the PAC-12 North because Oregon has won 12 straight games over the Huskies. Autzen Stadium is never an easy place to play, and you can never hold down the Ducks for long. I expect Oregon's defense to be a focal point in this game, because they have not done much to hinder opposing offenses yet this year. Jake Browning has the Husky offense humming, and I think he'll have a field day down in Eugene. Look for the Ducks to be bothersome early on, but they won't be able to get Freeman going against Washington's strong front seven, and that forces the game to be won by Dakota Prukop's arm. Washington flips the script and wins a big rivalry game up in the Pacific Northwest. Huskies 40, Ducks 20.
#1 Alabama at #16 Arkansas
This game will be a classic slug match between two power SEC teams. The Hogs are on the rise, only dropping one to the Aggies so far this year, and their offense has been hitting on all cylinders. Junior QB Austin Allen has been very impressive this season, completing nearly 68% of his passes and posting an impressive 12:2 TD to Interception ratio. Usually the Razorbacks are known for their power run game, but they're only averaging 197 on the ground per game compared to their nearly 250 yards passing. Bama's defense is never easy to move the ball on, as they only allow 69 yards rushing per game and only give up an average of 13 points. On offense for the Tide, star Freshman QB Jalen Hurts will cause lots of headaches for Arkansas' defense. Hurts has thrown for nearly 1000 yards already, and has rushed for nearly 300 while posting up 10 total TDs. Since the Razorbacks had a tough time with Trevor Knight a couple of weeks ago, look for Hurts to have a big game. Hogs keep it close for a while, but the Tide Rolls with a 35-24 victory. This game has upset potential though being away from Bryant-Denny Stadium.
#23 Florida State at #10 Miami
Arch rivals in the ACC showdown as Hurricane Matthew dies down in South Beach. It will be hard to focus on a football game with all of the outside issues going on, and I definitely send prayers to all those affected by the devastating storm. Looking at the football game, this will be a tough one to pick. Miami has looked impressive through their 4-0 start, but they have yet to play very tough competition. The Seminoles have struggled this season, dropping two big games to Louisville and UNC, falling to 0-2 in the conference. Both offenses are putting up impressive numbers, including an average of over 40 points per game. FSU is averaging 508 yards per game and Miami is averaging 474 in addition to all the points. The big issues have been on defense since the 'Noles are giving up over 35 points per game and nearly 440 yards per game. I don't think they'll be able to stop the Hurricane's offense, and with the recent weather, it could be tough to score points. I was expecting a shoot out, but again the weather may cause some issues. I'm still not entirely convinced on Miami, but I think Brad Kaaya's experience will allow him to outplay Deondre Francois (who is still having an impressive Freshman year). I'll stick with the Hurricanes to upset their rivals in a close one. Miami 31, FSU 30.
I hope you all enjoyed my picks for the week, and have a fun weekend of football! Stay Safe on the East Coast and GO BIG RED!!
#CollegeFootballKnowItAll
Alex Fernando
Iowa at Minnesota (Battle for the Floyd of Rosedale)
For those of you outside of the BIG 10, this is a great rivalry between the two schools, especially because the prize is a 98 lbs. bronze Pig! These two BIG 10 rivals square off in Minneapolis at 11 am on Saturday, and both are looking to get back on track after tough losses last week. The Gophers lost a close game to Penn State, and Iowa was once again stunned at home by a team they probably should have beaten in Northwestern. Neither team has looked very impressive through the first five weeks, especially when you consider the competition they have played. Iowa's consistency has dropped drastically from a year ago, and it starts up front with the offensive line. So far this season, Senior QB CJ Bethard has been sacked 14 times through only 5 games. Last year Iowa only gave up 29 sacks total throughout the season. Plus, their run game has been very lack-luster. Last year, the Hawkeyes were averaging over 180 yards rushing per game, this year, that average has dropped to just over 140. Plus, their average Time of Possession is down by over 2 minutes from last season. Minnesota on the other hand has increased their TOP average from last year by nearly 3 minutes. The Gophers are also averaging 228 on the ground per game and 211 through the air. I expect those numbers to drop as Iowa is probably the best defense they've faced so far this year, but the Hawkeyes are still giving up over 180 yards on average in each category. It's always hard to pick on a rivalry game, especially with both teams looking to get back on track in conference play, but I'm going with the home team in this one. I'm betting on a little bit closer of a game, but I think that if Minnesota can keep Iowa's run game contained, and bump up their TOP, they can come away with the victory. Plus the home team has won this game each time over the past 3 years, so look for the crowd to be a factor. Gophers win the Pig 28-23.
Maryland at Penn State
Another chapter in this hated rivalry is set to take place out in Happy Valley this weekend. Penn State may hold the all time series with an impressive 36-2-1 stat line, but since the Terps have joined the BIG 10, two 1-point games have decided the victor over the past couple years. Maryland has looked impressive so far against their lesser opponents this year, averaging over 43 points per game while giving up only 14, but once again, they have yet to face a quality opponent. Penn State has been a different story since they have played some tougher opponents. They have had a lot of close games apart from their blowout loss to the Wolverines, and are coming off of an Overtime thriller with the Gophers. I expect "Linebacker U" to bring the Terps' offense down a couple pegs to make this a little closer game. Oddly enough, the big thing to watch in this game is Maryland's ground attack. They are averaging 300 yards rushing per game, and the Nittany Lions are giving up an average of 216 yards rushing per game. Plus the Terps have an average TOP nearly 4 minutes ahead of the Nittany Lions. Penn State's offense has really struggled, and although they average 256 yards passing per game, Sophomore QB Trace McSorley is only completing 58.9% of his passes and has a 6:3 TD to Interception ratio. One big thing Penn State has going for them is special teams, because they have probably the most formidable kicker in the history of football! I have never seen a kicker as determined to make the tackle as the 258 lbs. Joey Julius is. His hits on kickoffs are some of my favorite highlights to watch, so Maryland better think twice before they try to return any kicks! Once again, rivalry games are hard to peg, but I think Maryland's offense might be too much for Penn State. We'll see if the Terps rise to the challenge against what is probably their strongest opponent so far this season. I'll go with Maryland in a 31-27 victory.
Texas vs. #20 Oklahoma (Red River Rivalry)
Since they shocked the Irish in the opening weekend, Texas (and Notre Dame) have more or less fallen off the map. They've lost back to back games to Cal and Oklahoma State, even with a BYE week in between. Oklahoma is trying to salvage the rest of their season after starting 1-2 with losses to Houston and Ohio State. Nationally, this game does not carry as much weight as it usually does, but for the Big XII Conference, this is a big one. Baylor and West Virginia are leading the conference right now, but there's no clear favorite in my opinion. The Big XII is extremely wide open, but Texas is a step behind since they have dropped 1 conference game already. OU pulled out a key win against the Horned Frogs last week, giving them a step up. Looking into the Red River Rivalry, I don't know where to start. Both teams move the ball well and have good play-makers on offense, but both teams cannot stop anyone on defense. Kind of typical for Big XII teams, but when both teams give up nearly 430 yards and over 35 points per game, you just know it's going to be a shootout. That's when you go look at the QBs. Texas is working with a Freshman under center, while occasionally bringing in the big Senior Tyrone Swoopes to run the ball (he has 5 rushing TDs so far this season). Oklahoma is a little more set at the QB spot as Baker Mayfield looks continue his impressive start to the season where he's already responsible for 11 touchdowns (9 passing & 2 rushing). Anyone could figure out that OU has the advantage when looking at the QB position, and if I were in a shootout, I would want Mayfield over Buechele. I'll go with the Sooners in a high-scoring, high-energy, high-stakes game down south. Oklahoma 48, Texas 35.
#25 Virginia Tech at #17 North Carolina
One of two top 25 match-ups in the ACC this weekend, the Hokies travel to Chapel Hill to take on the red hot Tar Heels. UNC have won 4 straight since their opening week loss to Georgia, including two close, 4th quarter, game winning drives to beat Pitt and Florida State. Junior QB Mitch Trubisky has been incredible so far this season, completing 76% of his passes, and posting a 13:0 TD to Interception ratio. Virginia Tech's numbers on defense look impressive, but they haven't played much competition outside of Tennessee, and they gave up quite a few yards and 45 points in that game. If this one is going to be close, it's going to be a shootout. Both teams are averaging 40 points per game, and UNC's defense has given up quite a few yards, especially on the ground. This plays well for the Hokies since they are averaging nearly 200 on the ground per game, and the Tar Heels give up an average of 236. I think UNC will win this one, mostly because of Trubisky. There are not many QBs playing at his level, and I don't think Virginia Tech's defense will be able to slow him down. This one will have quite a few points though! Tar Heels 48, Hokies 31.
Indiana at #2 Ohio State
Last year, this was one of my big upset picks, and the Buckeyes came away with a narrow 34-27 victory late in the 4th. That was out in Bloomington, but this year, it's in the Horseshoe. Indiana is playing at a much better level than previous years, especially on the defensive side of the ball. New Defensive Coordinator Tom Allen has the Hoosier defense posting some impressive numbers. They are only giving up 140 yards on the ground per game, which has dropped drastically from the nearly 200 they gave up a year ago. Again, there's still a lot of growth to be had if Indiana is ever going to compete in the BIG 10, but they can definitely cause some headaches. This could be a bit of a trap game for the Buckeyes as they have a big road trip to the Badgers lined up for next week, so they may overlook this one a bit. I don't think this will be the upset year for Indiana, but I think they'll be a little closer than the 28 point spread. JT Barrett and company shouldn't have many issues scoring points, but Ohio State's young defense will be tested with another good offensive attack. I'm sticking with the Buckeyes, 49-28.
#9 Tennessee at #8 Texas A&M
The Vols travel to College Station to take on the Aggies, hoping to continue their magical season of 4th quarter comebacks. However, one key member of their offense will be missing for this game, and that is Junior RB Jalen Hurd. This could slow down the Vols productivity on offense, as they are averaging nearly 175 yards rushing per game. Without Hurd, Joshua Dobbs will have to step up and make some big plays. It's hard to pick against Tennessee with all of their recent success, and it makes it even harder when we don't know if Myles Garrett will be playing for the Aggies. Garrett is one of the best pass rushers in the country, and A&M are also missing an offensive lineman and two big receivers. A&M's injuries put the weight on Trevor Knight's shoulders, making a great battle between two dynamic, dual-threat QBs. Both offenses have a lot of weapons, but revolve on the QB play. Both QBs are experienced, and have played in a few big games. It's hard to pick on a game where the teams are so evenly matched, and evenly injured, but I'm going with Tennessee in some more 4th Quarter magic. Vols 38-35.
#21 Colorado at USC
This is an interesting game because I don't think anyone would ever believed that the Buffaloes would be ranked walking into a match-up with the Trojans. Nonetheless, Colorado is ranked, and honestly (really dislike saying this) they are playing some really good football. They nearly upset the Trojans last year, and they have proven this year that they are not the normal pushover people think of them as. The Buffs are averaging over 530 yards per game and 43.2 points per game on offense. Defensively, they are giving up under 150 yards both passing and rushing. Now the Trojans have been struggling, but they are no pushover either. They have struggled to produce many points, but have the talent to put up big numbers. They have a lot of talented receivers, so look for them to test Colorado deep. The only loss Colorado has this season, is to the very talented, very powerful Michigan Wolverines. USC's talent pool is much like that of the Maize and Blue, so the Buffs will have to be sharp if they want to come out of L.A. with an upset. I think that Colorado's QB Sefo Liufau is the difference in this game, because Jalen Hurts ran for two TDs against them in the opener. Sefo is very good once he gets out of the pocket, and when passing, doesn't make many bad choices (71.1% completion rating and 0 interceptions so far this season). If he can go full speed for this game, I think Colorado comes away with the W. Buffalo 35, Trojans 23.
#5 Washington at Oregon
Washington really impressed me last week by absolutely demolishing Stanford. Oregon has really fallen off after losing 3 in a row. However, this is an interesting rivalry game in the PAC-12 North because Oregon has won 12 straight games over the Huskies. Autzen Stadium is never an easy place to play, and you can never hold down the Ducks for long. I expect Oregon's defense to be a focal point in this game, because they have not done much to hinder opposing offenses yet this year. Jake Browning has the Husky offense humming, and I think he'll have a field day down in Eugene. Look for the Ducks to be bothersome early on, but they won't be able to get Freeman going against Washington's strong front seven, and that forces the game to be won by Dakota Prukop's arm. Washington flips the script and wins a big rivalry game up in the Pacific Northwest. Huskies 40, Ducks 20.
#1 Alabama at #16 Arkansas
This game will be a classic slug match between two power SEC teams. The Hogs are on the rise, only dropping one to the Aggies so far this year, and their offense has been hitting on all cylinders. Junior QB Austin Allen has been very impressive this season, completing nearly 68% of his passes and posting an impressive 12:2 TD to Interception ratio. Usually the Razorbacks are known for their power run game, but they're only averaging 197 on the ground per game compared to their nearly 250 yards passing. Bama's defense is never easy to move the ball on, as they only allow 69 yards rushing per game and only give up an average of 13 points. On offense for the Tide, star Freshman QB Jalen Hurts will cause lots of headaches for Arkansas' defense. Hurts has thrown for nearly 1000 yards already, and has rushed for nearly 300 while posting up 10 total TDs. Since the Razorbacks had a tough time with Trevor Knight a couple of weeks ago, look for Hurts to have a big game. Hogs keep it close for a while, but the Tide Rolls with a 35-24 victory. This game has upset potential though being away from Bryant-Denny Stadium.
#23 Florida State at #10 Miami
Arch rivals in the ACC showdown as Hurricane Matthew dies down in South Beach. It will be hard to focus on a football game with all of the outside issues going on, and I definitely send prayers to all those affected by the devastating storm. Looking at the football game, this will be a tough one to pick. Miami has looked impressive through their 4-0 start, but they have yet to play very tough competition. The Seminoles have struggled this season, dropping two big games to Louisville and UNC, falling to 0-2 in the conference. Both offenses are putting up impressive numbers, including an average of over 40 points per game. FSU is averaging 508 yards per game and Miami is averaging 474 in addition to all the points. The big issues have been on defense since the 'Noles are giving up over 35 points per game and nearly 440 yards per game. I don't think they'll be able to stop the Hurricane's offense, and with the recent weather, it could be tough to score points. I was expecting a shoot out, but again the weather may cause some issues. I'm still not entirely convinced on Miami, but I think Brad Kaaya's experience will allow him to outplay Deondre Francois (who is still having an impressive Freshman year). I'll stick with the Hurricanes to upset their rivals in a close one. Miami 31, FSU 30.
I hope you all enjoyed my picks for the week, and have a fun weekend of football! Stay Safe on the East Coast and GO BIG RED!!
#CollegeFootballKnowItAll
Alex Fernando
Tuesday, October 4, 2016
Week 5 Reflection
Another great weekend of football is in the books, and the rankings have been shuffled up quite a bit. I'll be the first to admit that I have not been very accurate on some of my picks so far this season, especially last week. Hopefully I can improve during the second half of the season, but either way, that's the beauty of College Football!! I don't think anyone could have predicted how this season has gone thus far. Some teams have really surprised me, and others have puzzled me with their uncommon starts. I'm excited to see how conference play progresses over the next couple weeks. Today's post will focus on my reflection of the Husker game against Illinois this past weekend, enjoy!
I think everyone can agree that this BYE week is very much needed. After a tough fought, 31-16 victory over the Illini, Nebraska remains undefeated at 5-0, but very beaten up as a number of key players have gone down with injuries the past couple weeks. I'm thankful for the Huskers' deep receiving corps, because a number of Tommy's weapons have been sidelined recently. Leading receiver Alonzo Moore did not suit up for Saturday's game against Illinois, and both Cethan Carter and Jordan Westerkamp left Saturday's game with injuries and did not return. Starting Guard Tanner Farmer did not suit up as well, and RB Devine Ozigbo also left the game and did not return on Saturday. With all these injuries, and a tough BIG 10 road schedule coming up, I really hope this BYE week provides our guys the rest they need.
Moving into my analysis of the game, we'll start with the defense. I thought the Blackshirts played very well throughout the game, only allowing a couple of big plays. I expected Wes Lunt to make some good throws and scramble out of the pocket on occasion, but for the most part, he was very well contained, and my good buddy Freedom even brought him down for a sack in the first quarter. The Illini used a lot of quick routes and short passes, so applying pressure was tough, especially on a Senior QB. Overall, the defense only allowed 270 total yards of offense, and held the Illini offense to 2/9 on third down conversions. The Blackshirts failed to get any turnovers though, first time all year. If they can force enough punts, that's not a deal-breaking stat in my opinion, but turnovers always help. My biggest issue with the defense however, was tackling. Nebraska consistently missed tackles or failed to wrap up hard and bring guys to the ground, allowing for much bigger gains. Plus, on Illinois' lone Touchdown, their running back broke a couple of tackles on his way to the endzone. Wrapping up has seemed to have gotten worse for the Blackshirts over recent weeks, so look for that to be a point of emphasis during the BYE week. All things considered a very good performance by the defense, but they need to finish plays and make tackles in the open field if they want to compete in the BIG 10 moving forward.
On the offensive side of the ball, for the first 3/4 of the game, they seemed very flat. There was no creativity, no energy, and most importantly, not very many points! Nebraska only scored 10 points through the first three quarters, and seemed to be running up against a brick wall. Illinois' defensive line is easily the best and most athletic front four Nebraska has faced all season, but as I watched throughout the game, it seemed as though our offensive line was getting knocked two yards into the backfield on every play. The Huskers were not able to move the ball very well during the first half, apart from the opening drive, and they often stalled just after crossing the 50. Two dumb turnovers did not help their case as Mikale Wilbon fumbled on a drive that was working its way into the 20, and Tommy threw a very poor pass directly to an Illini defender later in the game. Tommy has played very well, and completed nearly 70% of his passes on Saturday, but he had a lot of help from his receivers. He was under pressure and had to scramble for most of the game, but there were a number of throws that were not the easiest to catch. The most memorable is Sam Cotton's reaching grab up and behind him as Tommy floated it away as he was taken down in the backfield. Moving forward Tommy will still need to work on his accuracy if he's going to get by some of the tougher defenses like Wisconsin and Ohio State. His line will need to give him some better protection to start though. Moving into the 4th Quarter, it was like watching an entirely different game! Nebraska had no problem pushing the Illini defense around, no problems moving the ball, and no problems scoring! After their 21-0 fourth quarter on Saturday, Nebraska has now out scored opponents 78-6 in the final 15 minutes of the game. As much as I would love to see more points throughout the game, if you're rocking a scoring margin like that in one quarter alone, I have no issues with the Huskers waiting until the 4th. It's frustrating to see teams hang around, but this also shows the work ethic of this team, and the trust in the coaching staff that everyone has. The run game struggled all day long, but they kept trying it, and were able to overpower the Illini in the fourth quarter and run wild. The system is working well, the players are playing at a much higher level, and when you close out a game with a 21-0 route, you're doing something right. Some people might be concerned that we're not blowing teams out right away with the offensive power we have, but sometimes it just takes some time to wear a team down. A little more effort in blocking up front and tackling on the defense, and I really think Nebraska has a shot at competing for a BIG 10 Championship! GO BIG RED!
#CollegeFootballKnowItAll
Alex Fernando
I think everyone can agree that this BYE week is very much needed. After a tough fought, 31-16 victory over the Illini, Nebraska remains undefeated at 5-0, but very beaten up as a number of key players have gone down with injuries the past couple weeks. I'm thankful for the Huskers' deep receiving corps, because a number of Tommy's weapons have been sidelined recently. Leading receiver Alonzo Moore did not suit up for Saturday's game against Illinois, and both Cethan Carter and Jordan Westerkamp left Saturday's game with injuries and did not return. Starting Guard Tanner Farmer did not suit up as well, and RB Devine Ozigbo also left the game and did not return on Saturday. With all these injuries, and a tough BIG 10 road schedule coming up, I really hope this BYE week provides our guys the rest they need.
Moving into my analysis of the game, we'll start with the defense. I thought the Blackshirts played very well throughout the game, only allowing a couple of big plays. I expected Wes Lunt to make some good throws and scramble out of the pocket on occasion, but for the most part, he was very well contained, and my good buddy Freedom even brought him down for a sack in the first quarter. The Illini used a lot of quick routes and short passes, so applying pressure was tough, especially on a Senior QB. Overall, the defense only allowed 270 total yards of offense, and held the Illini offense to 2/9 on third down conversions. The Blackshirts failed to get any turnovers though, first time all year. If they can force enough punts, that's not a deal-breaking stat in my opinion, but turnovers always help. My biggest issue with the defense however, was tackling. Nebraska consistently missed tackles or failed to wrap up hard and bring guys to the ground, allowing for much bigger gains. Plus, on Illinois' lone Touchdown, their running back broke a couple of tackles on his way to the endzone. Wrapping up has seemed to have gotten worse for the Blackshirts over recent weeks, so look for that to be a point of emphasis during the BYE week. All things considered a very good performance by the defense, but they need to finish plays and make tackles in the open field if they want to compete in the BIG 10 moving forward.
On the offensive side of the ball, for the first 3/4 of the game, they seemed very flat. There was no creativity, no energy, and most importantly, not very many points! Nebraska only scored 10 points through the first three quarters, and seemed to be running up against a brick wall. Illinois' defensive line is easily the best and most athletic front four Nebraska has faced all season, but as I watched throughout the game, it seemed as though our offensive line was getting knocked two yards into the backfield on every play. The Huskers were not able to move the ball very well during the first half, apart from the opening drive, and they often stalled just after crossing the 50. Two dumb turnovers did not help their case as Mikale Wilbon fumbled on a drive that was working its way into the 20, and Tommy threw a very poor pass directly to an Illini defender later in the game. Tommy has played very well, and completed nearly 70% of his passes on Saturday, but he had a lot of help from his receivers. He was under pressure and had to scramble for most of the game, but there were a number of throws that were not the easiest to catch. The most memorable is Sam Cotton's reaching grab up and behind him as Tommy floated it away as he was taken down in the backfield. Moving forward Tommy will still need to work on his accuracy if he's going to get by some of the tougher defenses like Wisconsin and Ohio State. His line will need to give him some better protection to start though. Moving into the 4th Quarter, it was like watching an entirely different game! Nebraska had no problem pushing the Illini defense around, no problems moving the ball, and no problems scoring! After their 21-0 fourth quarter on Saturday, Nebraska has now out scored opponents 78-6 in the final 15 minutes of the game. As much as I would love to see more points throughout the game, if you're rocking a scoring margin like that in one quarter alone, I have no issues with the Huskers waiting until the 4th. It's frustrating to see teams hang around, but this also shows the work ethic of this team, and the trust in the coaching staff that everyone has. The run game struggled all day long, but they kept trying it, and were able to overpower the Illini in the fourth quarter and run wild. The system is working well, the players are playing at a much higher level, and when you close out a game with a 21-0 route, you're doing something right. Some people might be concerned that we're not blowing teams out right away with the offensive power we have, but sometimes it just takes some time to wear a team down. A little more effort in blocking up front and tackling on the defense, and I really think Nebraska has a shot at competing for a BIG 10 Championship! GO BIG RED!
#CollegeFootballKnowItAll
Alex Fernando
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)