Thursday, October 10, 2019

Week 6 Reflections

     Week 6 of the College Football season has come and gone and we're already moving into the heart of October. Conference play is in full swing and I have some great breakdowns and analysis for you all from the games this past weekend. Nebraska pulled off a home victory against Northwestern, while some top teams tumbled on the road. This post will have it all for you, and be sure to check out the newest episode of my College Football Podcast with my roommate Nate Muhlbach called The 2nd String! We have a great episode prepared for you all this week. Don't forget to share with all your football loving friends and family, enjoy!


Nebraska edged out Northwestern 13-10 with a last second field goal kicked by Lane McCallum for their second ever victory against the Wildcats in Lincoln since joining the BIG 10. The only other victory at home for the Huskers in this series was the Hail Mary to Jordan Westerkamp in 2013. This game was quite the grinder, with a number of players suffering injuries, including Adrian Martinez and JD Spielman, two of the Huskers most important on offense. The defense was tight in this game, and points were tough to come by. Northwestern-Nebraska games are always a coin toss on who will win, so I wasn't the least bit surprised to see this one come down to the wire. My breakdown and analysis of this victory will be laid out in three categories: GOOD, EXPECTED and BAD.

GOOD- The progress of the Husker Football team. Now, based on how the Huskers have looked this season, most fans would say this team has not progressed from last season, and in some ways possibly regressed from 2018. However, at this point last year, Nebraska was 0-6, now they're 4-2 and have matched their win total from a year ago. No, this team has not looked like a team that will be competing for a BIG 10 title or more, but this is a team that is moving forward. In 2018, the Huskers lost to Troy at home, while they beat both of their G5 opponents this year. Yes, there have been slip ups (Colorado) and games no one wanted to see (Ohio State), but this team is starting to win the games they're expected to win. This is one of the first steps in building a program (back) into one that will be seen as a dominant force in College Football. Yes, immediate results are nice, but it takes teams a while to develop their game enough to be able to run it seamlessly week in and week out. The next step for this team will be to win some more road games and games they're not favored in. It's a slow process to build a dynasty. Frost is in this position for the long haul, and I've mentioned before how I've seen flashes from this team. Four victories in six games is an important indicator to the progress being made in that locker room. There's still a lot to be done, but this team is on the right track. It's not going to look pretty for a while, but sit back Husker fans, and cheer loud. This team is going to take everyone on quite the ride over the next couple seasons.

EXPECTED- The game coming down to the wire. The Nebraska-Northwestern rivalry has brought us yet another thriller. As a Husker fan, this game is always a tough one to watch, but as a football fan, these are always one of my favorite games of the season. This game keeps the fans on edge for every minute, but most importantly, it's a grinder for the players. This is the type of game that will teach these athletes how to finish close games. The BIG 10 is a conference full of talented teams, and winning tough games like this against quality opponents is a step in the right direction for the Huskers. Not only is Northwestern a key divisional win, but this team challenges everyone they face in different ways. Their defense is tough to move the ball on, and they racked up 10 tackles for loss against the Huskers. But Nebraska was persistent, and were able to come away with a much needed victory. This was destined to be a battle, and that's exactly what we got.

BAD- Missed Pass Interference Call and offensive execution by the Huskers. First and foremost, I wholeheartedly believe that Nebraska won this game because of a completely blown pass interference call by the referees. During Northwestern's final drive, on the interception thrown by QB Aidan Smith, Nebraska Linebacker Will Honas absolutely laid out the Wildcats' wide receiver as he came across the middle to get the ball, thus letting it fly directly to Lamar Jackson for the pick. Short of the Rams-Saints pass interference call from the NFL playoffs last year, this was one of the worst missed calls I've seen in recent history. It really looked like Northwestern had the momentum and was ready to go down the field and win the game had that PI been called properly. However, I'm not too upset being the beneficiary of a call like that, but for the integrity of the game of football, I completely hate how that penalty was missed.
Now moving onto the Husker offense, it's horrible. The bad snaps are only getting worse, and they contribute to the already struggling execution level of this unit. The ground game has not developed at all, only regressed, and receivers are not able to catch the passes thrown over their heads. Worst of all, there is very little protection for Husker quarterbacks, leaving them no time to look down the field and make a read. There's a lot wrong with the Husker offense right now, but one of the key missing elements is tempo. This is primarily due to the lack of execution on first and second down, but even when the Huskers do have positive plays, it seems as though Frost and OC Troy Walters keeps the pace slow. The snaps are taken late in the play clock and players are always looking to the sidelines for more signals. Last year's offense ran with much more tempo, and I think that really boosted this team. This will be something to watch during the second half of the season, but the snaps need to be fixed immediately.

Overall, this was not a pretty game by any means. There were plenty of mistakes on both sides, but the Huskers came out victorious and have equaled their win total from 2018. The second half the season will be difficult, and a road game to Minnesota this weekend is no small task, especially if Martinez and Spielman are not 100%. It's a slow growing process for this Husker team, but they're growing nonetheless. Keep watching for those sparks in between the chaos, they'll catch light soon enough.

Now for some other thoughts and reactions from around Week 6 in College Football:

- The Cincy Bearcats won a very important divisional game against UCF to take hold of first place in the American Athletic Conference East. Still a long season ahead, but they're going to push for best Group of 5 team in 2019.

- Speaking of teams pushing for that best G5 spot, keep your eyes on the SMU Mustangs. Texas QB transfer Shane Buechele has this offense ranked 13th in the nation and averaging more than 44 points per game. There's still a long road ahead in the American West division, especially with a road trip to Memphis, but SMU is playing some good football... minus giving up a touchdown on a kickoff they were supposed to receive.

- Tennessee looked really good in the opening quarter against Georgia... and that was about it. The Vols, much like my Huskers, have a long way to go in this rebuild. Freshman QB Brian Maurer played pretty well in his debut though. Look for him to torment more SEC secondaries over the next couple of years.

- Like I said last week and on the podcast, Ohio State is going to have a lot of lopsided scores on their schedule by the end of the season... all in their favor.

- Other than the road game to Texas for the Tigers, LSU has had a very manageable schedule. They host the Gators this week and have Auburn, Bama and Texas A&M all in the second half of the season. Welcome to the SEC West, we're really going to see what this team is made of.

- Since I mentioned the Gators, I should also mention how they shut down the other Tigers of the SEC West this past weekend in the Swamp. Kyle Trask has this offense playing well enough to win games, but the defense is what really surprises me with this team. CHOMP CHOMP!

- Oklahoma has not been challenged much either. We'll see how they handle Sam Ehlinger and the Longhorns this week as we have the Red River Rivalry (I refuse to say showdown until I am paid to do so, and even then it will be a stretch). This game is going to be a shootout for sure!

- Cal played great defense to shut down the Ducks, but without Garbers at QB their team won't be able to pull as many upsets as I had hoped. Don't sleep to hard on the Bears though.

- Sticking with the PAC-12, Stanford just cannot be beat on the farm, no matter how many backup QBs you make them play. Luckily they had RB Cameron Scarlett to carry the rock, and the team on his shoulders with nearly 5 yards per carry. Big win for the Cardinal, big loss for the Huskies.

- Also in the PAC-12, Khalil Tate from Arizona is still very much a Heisman Candidate from way out West. He threw for 404 yards with 3 TDs and 1 pick as the Wildcats beat Colorado on the road. They're a force to be reckoned with in the South division.

- Miami and Virginia Tech was somehow one of the craziest and best games of the day... the ACC is wack people, straight up wack I tell you!

- My favorite stat of the week: Iowa had four times as many turnovers as rushing yards against Michigan. Four Turnovers for the Hawkeyes and just one rush yard against the Wolverines. I'm still not sold on Michigan, but this was definitely a telling game about Iowa.

Thank you for reading all of my Week 6 CFB reflections and be sure to listen to our latest podcast episode! My predictions for this weekend's games will be up soon, so keep an eye out, share with your friends and GO BIG RED!

#CFBKnowItAll
Alex Fernando

Friday, October 4, 2019

Week 6 Predictions

     Hello football friends and welcome to October! The weather has cooled off and it's time for some hardcore football. October brings the thick of conference play, and this is when teams will begin to separate themselves from each other. This post will break down my predictions on all the big games this week, including Nebraska's homecoming game against Northwestern, which always ends up being entertaining. It's football season ladies and gentlemen, enjoy!

Week 5 Prediction Results: 8-4
Overall Prediction Results: 41-22


#14 Iowa at #19 Michigan

     A BIG 10 showdown in Ann Arbor will take place as the Hawkeyes and the Wolverines square off. Michigan has not been impressive this season, but a win over Iowa would boost them back into the BIG 10 talks. They will be tested, as Iowa doesn't make many mistakes and are a difficult team to beat. Michigan will need some help with their home field advantage. As for the Hawks, we really haven't seen much of them this season. They had the tough fought win against Iowa State, but otherwise the competition has been extremely lackluster. This will be the first real test as they move into conference play. Nate Stanley will face a stout defense and the Wolverines will be looking to shut down the rushing attack. This game is hard to predict because it could really go either way. I'll go with the home team in this game. Michigan wins a grinder 24-20.


#11 Texas at West Virginia

     Morgantown is never an easy place to win, but this is the chance Texas needs to put the hammer down. The Longhorns are going to need statement wins along with total beat down games as they move through their schedule. This is a great opportunity for one of those beat downs, as the Mountaineers are giving up as many points as they score (25) and Sam Ehlinger is ready to keep on his Heisman campaign. Texas rolls West Virginia 47-17.


#25 Michigan State at #4 Ohio State

     The Spartans of Michigan State march into Columbus, Ohio to take on the Buckeyes. Ohio State is obviously coming off of a big win in Lincoln, but will face a stout defense this weekend. MSU is only giving up 15 points per game on average, and less than 60 rush yards per game. Their offense is still a work in progress at time, but QB Brian Lewerke has thrown for more than 1,300 yards with 10 TDs and just 1 interception. He will have to face the wrath of Chase Young, who leads the nation in sacks with 8. The Spartans could have a difficult time moving the ball. On the other side, I doubt the Buckeyes will have many hiccups on offense. Justin Fields is unstoppable and they have too many weapons on offense to cover. The Spartans are always a potential for an upset, but I don't think Ohio State is slowing down any time soon. Buckeyes win 36-17.


California at #13 Oregon

     Without QB Chase Garbers, this will be a very difficult upset for Cal to pull on the Ducks. However, their defense gives them a chance, as they will be coming after Justin Herbert. Herbert by the way, has yet to throw an interception this season, but does have 14 TDs on the year. He'll have to navigate around a defense that gives up just 18.6 points per game. However, that's been a big chance on the Oregon side as well. The Ducks defense has given up an average of 10.5 points per game and just 262 yards. I think they'll make a statement in this game as they gear up for Washington in a couple weeks. Oregon wins a good one in Autzen, 30-13.


#7 Auburn at #10 Florida

     The biggest game of the week takes place down in the swamp as the Tigers take on the Gators. This is the first of big SEC match-ups we have coming up, and this will really set the tone for the next few weeks. Auburn has looked like one of the more dominant teams in the nation, with a suffocating defense that allows less than 100 rush yards per game. Their offense is led by Freshman QB, Bo Nix and averages 38 points per game. The Gators are relying on backup QB Kyle Trask after the starter Felipe Franks was injured a couple of weeks ago. Florida's defense has looked tough, but has not played much competition yet. They'll hang around in the swamp for a while, but I think Auburn walks out with the victory here. WAR EAGLE and the Tigers win 28-20.


Northwestern at Nebraska

     This is always one of the most difficult games of the year to pick for me. Northwestern is always a team Nebraska looks like they could beat, but the games are always tight, keeping everyone on edge. Plus, the road team usually wins, and the Wildcats have taken the last two in Lincoln. However, their offense ranks 126th in the nation and averages just 15.5 points per game. The Blackshirts should have a great opportunity for a bounce back game in this one. The other side of the ball brings more concern, as the Huskers looked absolutely inept on offense last week and for a good amount of the season. The Wildcats have a tough defense too, as they held Wisconsin to just 17 points (on offense) and love to shut down the run. Nebraska needs to establish the ground game then start with easy throws to get Martinez into a rhythm. This will be a tough game, but I've switched my pick from the beginning of the season. Nebraska bounces back at home with a 26-24 victory!

Now for some quick hit predictions on other interesting games around the nation:

Arizona at Colorado- The Wildcats of the desert continue to outfox me and my predictions, but now they travel to Boulder to take on Steven Montez and the Buffs. Arizona gives up more than 330 yards per game through the air, and I know Laviska Shenault Jr. is drooling over that. Buffalo win 37-25.

Baylor at Kansas State- More Wildcats that let me down, ugh. K-State couldn't pull of the win against Oklahoma State last week, but get a chance to knock Baylor from the ranks of the unbeaten this week at home. Statistically these teams line up perfectly, but I'll give the edge to the Bears in this one. I think Matt Ruhle is doing a phenomenal job down in Waco. Bears 33, Wildcats 21.

Air Force at Navy- This is a tricky one, and you never really know what comes in these rivalry games. The Midshipmen have played very well at home though, so I'll give them the edge. Navy beats Air Force 27-23.

Thanks for reading all of my Week 6 Predictions and enjoy all of the games this weekend.
GO BIG RED!

#CFBKnowItAll
Alex Fernando

Week 5 Reflections

     Alright football fans, it's time for my Week 5 reflection. Husker fans, we're going to rip this off like a band-aid and get through the pain quick. Nebraska was completely dominated by Ohio State on Saturday and there's nothing good you can say about that performance. As for elsewhere around College Football, most everyone else took care of business like they were supposed to, but Clemson did have a scare from Mac Brown and North Carolina. This post will break down all the news from Week 5 of College Football, enjoy!


    Originally, I was extremely upset with my cousin Henry for putting his wedding on the same day as the Ohio State game, but it actually turned out to be a good thing. While still brutal, I was lucky enough to suffer the pain of Nebraska's 48-7 beat down loss from afar rather than in person. The Buckeyes absolutely demolished the Huskers in every phase of the game, After putting up 38 in the first half, the Buckeyes let off the gas in the second, but all hope was lost for the Huskers at that point. This post could honestly just be all BAD categories, but I did find some GOOD and EXPECTED chunks in there as well. Enjoy as much as you can...


GOOD- Husker fans' unrealistic expectations are quelled. I think one of the few good take-away points from this game would be the pressure that is no longer on this team. The crazy notion that this team would challenge Ohio State for four quarters and even square off against them again in the BIG 10 Championship was plaguing this team. Don't get me wrong, I believe in the Huskers through everything, and I want them to dominate every team in their path, but we all have to be realistic at some point. This is a young team, with a new coaching staff and a lot of growing to do. The BIG 10 is a loaded conference and while the schedule does favor the Huskers, this team just doesn't have enough to tip that scale yet. However, I do believe a loss like this will take some pressure off. It will let these kids play more free and work to get better week by week. There's still a lot out there for this team, and I expect them to improve tremendously by the end of the season. But this is still year two of a new coach with sophomore QB and a lot of young and inexperienced talent. Give this team time to grow, then these blowouts won't happen so much. Culture and success take years to build.

EXPECTED- Justin Fields being amazing. Honestly, I expected the entire Ohio State football team to be amazing, and they lived up to it. This is one of the best teams in the nation, and I picked them for the CFB Playoffs for a reason. This beat down was not pretty, but at the end of the year, I think Nebraska will just be one of many to be destroyed by the Buckeyes. Look for this team to challenge for the title this year, they're a force to be reckoned with.

BAD- Basically everything the Huskers did on Saturday, but especially Adrian Martinez. I don't want to go too far down this rabbit hole, but Martinez played easily the worst game of his career against Ohio State, and the rest of the team followed suit. The Buckeyes are clearly a more talented team, but when I saw Martinez overthrow a four yard screen, I lost it. Now I do think he's a fine athlete and a great football player, but he's going to struggle for a while longer. He's young, and this team is young. The overthrown passes are a big issue, but will be addressed and fixed down the road. As of right now, I think the ground game is the best option for Nebraska.

This game is over, this reflection is over, let's move on for the Huskers' sake... and our own.

Other highlights from around College Football:

- Clemson survives a scare from Mac Brown and the Tar Heels, winning 21-20 after stopping a two-point conversion. The Tigers have not looked to be in top form yet this year, but their schedule gives plenty of leeway to practice.

- Purdue's struggles continue as starting QB Elijah Sindelar will be out 6-8 weeks after breaking his clavicle.

- Penn State absolutely demolished Maryland and will definitely be a challenger in the BIG 10 East.

- Texas A&M and Arkansas yet again proves to be one of the toughest fought rivalries in CFB.

- Watch out for Wake Forrest and SMU. Two high powered offensive attacks have helped these teams remain unbeaten in the early part of the season.

Thank you for reading my Week 5 Reflection post and be sure to watch for my Week 6 Predictions coming up next! GO BIG RED!

#CFBKnowItAll
Alex Fernando